Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table. To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops. Colts got shut out by the Jags, Ooops. Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops. Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB. 47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs. And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends. Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1. The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss. But of late: Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB. And rain for some of the day as well. Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under. This one sings out to me so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs? Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun. Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl. Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today? Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job. That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year. “Another loss? Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.” ATL 1-5 ATS of late. Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable. I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
What does Kansas City not do well? Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill? True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting. THEY DON’T. With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time. And what does running the ball do? Runs the clock. Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL. So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to. BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today. Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home, Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday? Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2. And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them. And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG. Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed. Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak, Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS. Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS. Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS. Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game. We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good. The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits.
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky. And I’ve bet them during that streak. But today, that streak is likely to end. Remember the last time these teams played? I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it. Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG. Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy. Here’s a larger sample size: Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston. Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern. Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3. How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3? Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful. Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late. On a neutral field, these teams are even? Wow, I just don’t see it. I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats. I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle. And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!