Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

NFL Wild Card weekend 1/15/22 against the spread bets

Finished the season on a high, 7-5 and 5 straight winning weeks brings me to a total of 100-83-1 to 54.6% for the year, over the break even number of 52.5%. Cross those fingers as we hopefully walk up to CASH THOSE TICKETS

Tonight’s picks:

Cincy 1h under 24.5 and Cincy under 48.5

Vegas has gone under 4/6 of late and playing 5 quarters on a short week doesn’t help. Cincy has gone under 7/10 against the AFC west. A second year head coach and an interim head coach are going to come out conservative. Banged up Burrow also gives minor concern. I see a lot of running for both teams and can the ferocious pass rush of the Raiders be neutralized by the Bengals? Before last year’s expanded bracket, the under was 15-0-1 in #3 vs #6 matchups. Under is 26-11-1, 12-6 of late.

Pats first half under 22.5

Pats have gone under 4/5 on the road.Bills have gone under 7/10 in January. It’s going to be ZERO degrees tonight. Mac Jones grew up in FL and played in Bama, never in zero degrees so this will be interesting to see. On the flip side, Josh Allen has played 4 games below freezing and hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yds or achieved 56% completion rate in that weather. I gotta imagine Pats have the #1 defense on 3rd and 4th down while the Bills have the top run defense.

You know how many teams the Eagles beat that were over .500 this year? ONE, the Saints. And now they’re in TB, against the top run defense and all Philly does is run. Bucs are 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. Home favorite of a TD or more are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS. And if you think Tom Brady forgot how the Eagles beat him in a Superbowl, you’re sorely mistaken. I know there’s no Fournette but they have JPP and Shaq Barrett back on defense. At the same time, I’m not keen on laying 8.5 so I teased this game

Edit: Added Bills 2H +.5

First half of teaser: Tampa -2.5 Also Philly team total under 17.5, Gronk +115 to catch an anytime TD and Brate +440 to catch an anytime TD

Continuing on the theme of heavy favorites (no, not talking about your mom), I think the same number of scenarios where the Avengers said they beat Thanos is the same number that the Steelers have in KC. Ben looked worse than a kid with polio trying to dunk a basketball in a regulation sized hoop. Steelers got triple penetrated the first time they played and I know Tomlin as an underdog is fantastic but this KC freight train SHOULD barrel through the Steelers. Home favorites by 10 or more are 5-0 (See TB as well) KC 6-0 SU at home, 9-1 SU and 6-2 ATS of late. I’m pretty sure people don’t make money when they’re laying 12.5 in the NFL so let’s finish up the teaser.

Second half of teaser: Chiefs -6.5 and also Chiefs 1H -7

Road teams are 14-4 ATS and 15-3 SU. Dogs are 12-4-1 ATS in NFC wild card games and dogs in the past 4 seasons are 15-3. Here’s the big bullet, home favorites since 03 that are laying 7 or fewer are 14-28-1. Know where I’m going with this? SF is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Here’s the big factor, Niners are 7-3 SU on the road. I always talk about platinum Golden Corral member, Mike McCarthy, can fuck up boiling water. Dallas has beaten how many teams over .500? TWO. Chargers and the Pats. Not exactly bursting with confidence to take Dallas, are you? And guess who fired in at the right time? Me. And I’m willing to bet if you wait till kickoff, you can also get

Niners +3.5 and Niners team total over 23.5

NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

NFL picks ATS week 11 /28/21 sports betting

5-6 last week as the Giants ruined my chances to go over .500 for the week for the first time in a LONG time. Goddamnit, that puts me at 55-61-1 this year which includes the Dallas under on Thanksgiving I took. Hope you degenerates stayed away from Black Friday store openings at 4am cause if you didn’t, you should be forced to play in the Squid Games. This week, THREE games that are absolutely going to make you say, “who gives a shit!”

What’s worse, watching the Jets or getting finger popped by your uncle watching the Jets lose again? Well, get ready for another Jets loss against a Houston defense that shut down the Titans. The Jets lost Michael Carter for a few weeks and the stats sure don’t inspire confidence: 1-5 ATS of late, 0-6 ATS on the road. Their defense is also dead LAST in DVOA while Houston is slightly above average.

Houston -2.5

The only thing watching someone drive into and kill people in a Christmas parade was watching the Falcons last week against the Patriots. I can’t believe I’m putting hard earned money on the Falcons again but here we are. Jags give up 12 most yards allowed and 29th in defense efficiency. Matt Ryan is going to do his best Urban Meyer impression and bury in boner in the Jags behind this week. Trevor Lawrence has allowed 169 yds and .2 TDs a game for the last 3 games. 10 days off to prep and stew against the dogshit Jags is enough for Matt “Waterhead” Ryan to get the win. Falcons 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU against Jags of late. Jags are 2-18 SU of late, 2-11 SU at home. Hold your nose like I do when your mom drops her panties and bet the Falcons.

Falcons -1

Jaguars have scored 23 ONCE and that was in London. They haven’t score more than 20 in over a month and scored 20 or more 3 times this year.

Jaguars team total under 23

Can you imagine (I’ve been there for the good and bad) if you had the Chargers and you blew that 17 pt lead in the 4th quarter and had them -4.5? Oh gambling, you’re the best and the worst. Good news is Pitt is getting everyone back on defense: Fitzpatrick and most imporantly, TJ Watt, are back on defense. I jumped in a little late and got it at +3.5 and there’s still value left as this is THE last stand for Pitt. You’re getting more than a FG in a divisional game, grab it while you can. Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS (including when Ben was out) but 4-1-1 SU of late and 4-1 ATS on the road. 11-2 SU against Cincy. Bengals 1-4 ATS at home, 1-7 SU home against Pitt and 3-6 ATS as the favorite. Good enough stats for you?

Steelers +3.5

I want to go play Far Cry 6 so here’s a quick handicap. Vikings are 4-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU, and 6-3 SU against SF. Niners are worse at home than their policing policies, 1-8 SU at home. Vikings putting up 30.6 ppg of late and Cousins hasn’t thrown a pick in 6 games with 21 TDs. Oh yeah, Kyle Shanahan is 3-16-2 as a home favorite. Game, set, match.

Vikings +3

I’m watching The Last Dragon right now and this film is so fucking awful. It’s beyond 80’s schlock and impossible to defend as a guilty pleasure. That’s just a quick tangent as we get to the first teaser. Colts are AVERAGING 31 PPG and Taylor is averaging 119 yds a game. I have the Colts under 9 and I’m starting to sweat this one out after an awful start by Went and 2 bad beat losses. Colts are 6-2 ATS of late but 3-6 ATS at home.Now, before I hear you say, TB has the best rush defense (they do), Vita Vea is their best run stopper and he’s out. Last 5 games, the Bucs have allowed 111 rush yds a game so the bloom is off the rose. Bucs are 0-5 ATS on the road and 0-3 ATS against winning teams. But let’s get a little insurance by teasing this with…

In the third, “who gives a shit” game of the week, let’s talk Carolina and Miami. This game on paper is worse than the Asian guys in the Last Dragon. Goddamn, this film is awful. Anyway, Carolina is 2-6 ATS and SU of late. 1-5 ATS against Mia, 2-4 SU although Carolina 10-2 ATS of late on the road. But in the last 4, Miami defense is 3rd in points allowed as well as 2nd best in allowed QBR rating. Carolina defense has been holding it down as well: 2nd in yards allowed and 6th in PPG. Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS in November games but 3-7 SU of late.

Dolphins +8 and Colts +9

No Brown, no Jones, no Johnson. Sounds like the 3/5 starting 5 of an NBA lineup out. But wait, there’s more! Down 3 CBs, 2 LBs, a G, and a DT all out. So let’s get this straight, the Titans who lost to the Texans and have no one on offense and defense. They go to New England and facing a defense who has given up THIRTEEN points in THREE games. They’re 3rd in takeaways, 7th in sacks, and FIRST in points allowed. Yeah, we’re taking the Pats down to a near pick em. Then 2-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against NE, 1-6 SU in NE. Pats are rolling, 5-0 ATS and SU of late. Just tease them and kick back with a Colt 45 cause it works every time.

Titans team total under 18

Pats -1/GB+7

Yes, I know Rodgers toe must be hurting him worse than it is for us to look at his mullet. And I know the Rams are off 2 losses with a bye. It’s supposed to get frigid tomorrow in Lambeau and before last week’s explosion in Minnesota, (hope you took Minn like I told you to) Packers gave up 22 or less in 7 games. And looky, looky, here: Packers have given up 11 points per game at Lambeau over their last 4 at home. Rams are 1-4 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against GB, 1-5 SU in GB. Packers are on fire: 9-1 ATS and 8-2 SU, 10-1 SU at home. Yes, a couple more injuries on defense but hence why we’re teasing the Pack up to 7. Let’s cross those fingers and hope the Pack o line holds up and they keep it to 7.

Pats -.5/Pit +10 teaser for all the reasons above.

Week 7 picks

Last week, 5-6 to bring my total to 31-31 for the year, 50% is not making any money. I’m about to go to the Giants game so no jokes or cookie monster video, just straight data.

KC 3-13-1 ATS but 15-5 ATS of late. Chiefs 1-4 ATS at SU against Tenn, KC 12-2 SU on road. Tenn 4-1 AT and SU. Tenn 2-1 ATS and SU against the Chiefs

Tenn +5.5

Wash 1-5 ATS, 2-5 SU, 3-7 SU against GB but 0-5 SU in GB. GB 5-0 ATS and SU of late, 16-2 SU at home.

First leg of teaser GB -2.5. Denver +8 (covered) was the second leg of the teaser

;Carolina under 7/9 of late Giants under 9/13, 6/7 under at home

Giants under 1H 22.5 and for the game, 43.5

Jets 1-5 ATS of late, 3-17 SU, 2-6 against Pats and 0-10 SU. 1-10 SU on the road 0-10 sU in NE. Pats 3-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-5 SU at home.

Pats -1 along with Titans +11.5

Atlanta 2-4 ATS of late, 2-8 SU, 6-2-1 ATS against Miami but 4-9 SU. All 5-1 ATS against AFC. Miami1-4 ATS of late, 0-5 SU, 9-3 ATS at home, 1-5 SU. Teams coming off a bye and road favorite, 83-49. Miami doesn’t take a bye after coming back from London? As in the words of Jack Slater from Last Action Hero (underrated movie) “Big Mistake.”

ATL -1.5

Arizona is gonna smoke Houston but they don’t need to go batshit crazy as they play Thursday night against GB. They’ll take the foot off the gas early

Zona team total under 32.5

But that doesn’t mean Deandre Hopkins won’t want to unload against his old team, despite hardly anyone there from management when he was there.

Hopkins over 70.5 receiving yards

Like all the big spreads to win outright so ML parlay it is: GB/Rams/Arizona/TB money line parlay

NFL week 5 picks ATS 10/10/21

Good news, the new James Bond film was great. Bad news, who would’ve thought the Giants AND the Jets would’ve combined to fuck me in FOUR bets? Giants come back from down 11 to win in OT and the goddamn Jets pull an OT win off as well. Bringing me to a total of 22-19 for the year. I know, a long way from 66% ATS 2 weeks ago. I started off the week teasing Seattle to +8.5 with Minnesota. So Russ badly sprains his finger, gets taken out for Geno Smith, and the Rams backdoor my teaser by HALF A FUCKING POINT WITH A LATE, MEANINGLESS FIELD GOAL. Starting off 0-1, sigh. So let’s rally and pretend like I’m a terminally ill cancer patient who goes to Vegas for a final long weekend; blowing his bankroll with reckless abandon and going balls deep without rubbers or standards.

I’m calling my first bet the LOCK OF THE YEAR. KC FINALLY covered the spread this year against Philly and now they’re home against the Bills. The Chiefs defense is softer than my penis hearing Ani DiFranco or Tori Amos songs. Their ATS number is almost as Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s approval rating, 2-12-1 ATS of late and 1-7 ATS at home. Christ almighty, that’s atrocious. In come the Bills who are hotter than a pistol: 12-3 ATS of late, 11-2 SU. Last 2 games they lost were the AFC championship and week 1 against the hapless Steelers. So what the Chiefs are 1-5 ATS and SU agains the Chiefs. But I want you to explain to me how the Chiefs are laying 3 to the Bills? This game has 31-30 written all over it and I REALLY think the Bills win the game. At WORST, they lose and keep it to a FG or less. So I made my biggest bet of the year on a teaser with the Bills:

First leg of the teaser: Bills +9 and a second bet of Bills +3

This next leg of the CAN’T MISS teaser is quite simple: The Colts are trash. Yes, the got their first win in Miami but who gives a shit. Colts are 1-4 SU of late and against Baltimore. Colts are also 2-4 ATS against AFC and 0-6 against the AFC north but let’s look at the eye test, Wentz’s numbers are ok but his execution stinks. Jonathan Taylor, the RB, is underachieving. Now bring in the Ravens who are riding hot: 9-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. Also 7-2 ATS against AFC, 4-1 ATS against AFC south, 7-0 SU in October, and 7-1 SU as a favorite. Ravens at home Monday night are going to fast forward through the Colts like I fast forward through half of Howard Stern’s show. We get it, you’re scare of Corona, hate anti-vaxxers, and love the Bachelor. I’m skipping to whenever Ronnie the Limo Driver yells out, “CUUUUUNT!”

Second leg of can’t miss teaser, Ravens -1

Back to the money line parlays:

Pats and Ravens ML parlays

Pats/Ravens/TB

TB in Miami laying 10 is never a good idea so let’s through them in the pile with 2 other teams who are destined to win outright today.

Yours truly told you to tease down the Buccaneers last week to -1 and hot christ, did we need every one of those teaser points as Brady won by 2 in a monsoon. It was raining so hard you would’ve thought that they replayed the 2006 and 2011 Superbowls on the jumbotron at Gilette stadium and those were the tears of Pats fans. Patriots go down to Houston where the city is generic and the football team is an absentee father. Hey, did you know Bellichik is 22-6 against rookie QBs? And good ol Darth Hoodie has lost TWO straight games? What’s my prediction for the Pats/Houston game? Paaaaain. Pats 8-4 ATS against Houston and 8-2 SU. And Houston numbers? 1-4 SU at home of late, 1-6 SU vs AFC, and 1-6 ATS in October. To quote Chris Russo, I’d be shocked…shocked…SHOCKED if the Pats didn’t run them out of the building. But I sure as hell wouldn’t lay 8.5, especially on the road…ESPECIALLY when they’re down 4 offensive linemen. I put this bet in 3 days ago but I think you know where this is going…

First leg of teaser: Pats down to -2.5

The next leg of a teaser JUMPED out at me. The Green Bay/Cincy over under is 50.5 and I’m floored it hasn’t skyrocketed. Cincy is getting Tee Higging back but Joe Mixon is banged up. Jaire Alexander is out for GB and that defense is worse than Nanette’s Netflix special. Pack have gone over 6/8 of late but the Bengals are 4/6 under at home and 6/7 vs NFC. Again, I’d be SHOCKED if this game didn’t have some points scored and when you get the 6 points to play with, 44.5 is AMAZINGLY easily to attain. That’s 24-21 and the way Burrow and Rodgers are slinging it around like Megan Fox will when she dumps be when she dumps the tiny human Rorsharch test, Travis Barker. Unless he has a drumstick hanging between his legs on that 135 lb body, I can’t see him wowing her with witticisms.

Second leg of teaser: GB over to 44.5

Carolina got smoked by Dallas like their mediocre bbq sauce. Sorry kids, it’s KC or Texas style BBQ or you’re bringing Dominos to a discussion about pizza. As of of Saturday night, McCaffrey is doubtful. You know what else is doubtful? The Eagles defense showing up and playing a competitive game. Cause they’ve let up 80 points in 2 games. Philly and everyone not named Dallas are 1-2 in the NFC east, amazing. Eagles 2-5 ATS of late, 1-7 ATS on the road. Carolina on the other hand has Sam Darnold playing out of his mind; did you know he’s the NFL rushing TD leader right now? Which continually proves the Jets can fuck up boiling water. Panthers 5-2 ATS of late and 12-5 SU vs the NFC East. And they’re 4-2 ATS in week 5. This defense is like an apple you’re about to pick with your girlfriend in an orchard because you got caught cheating on her. Cause there’s no man alive who voluntarily wants to go apple picking unless they got caught up in some shit. Also, the Eagles/Panthers have gone over 4/5

Carolina -3 and over 44.5, 2 separate bets

Vikings had a hell of a time with Cleveland last week. No, not helping Cleveland people fit in size 38 waisted pants but that defense ate Kirk Cousins the fuck up. Lions may be without Sewell, their brand new OT. They’re definitely without their top corner, their top pass rusher, and TJ Hockenson is banged up. I HAVE to think the Vikes bounce back, despite Dalvin Cook questionable. Let’s cut the horseshit:

Teaser: Vikings to -2.5 and Panthers over 38

Vegas Raiders and their number one fan, jersey name Raider Pussy 1 (wish I got a pic of it to share with you fine people), had a rough loss Monday night and missed my over tease with a late Carr pick. Call me square but Christ, do you trust Justin Fields in Vegas? Didn’t look good the last few weeks cause shit, they BARELY won against the Lions. Lions have FOUR red zone turnovers last week and the Bears won by 10. THANK GOD I did a 7 point teaser with the Lions and Vikes as I covered by .5. Bears are 2-4 ATS of late and 2-6 ATS on the road. Vegas stats don’t back up the play: 3-7 ATS of late, 1-5 SU in October, 2-4 ATS in week 5, but 4-1 SU. No David Montgomery either so it’s Damien Williams on the ground and Darnell Mooney/Allen Robinson in the air. I don’t think the Bears stand a chance and the number is right.

Oakland -5.5

So the Giants and Jets decided to do their “Requiem for a Dream” impression and make me take a double ended dildo by winning OT games last week. And as a Giants fan, I’ve seen this movie before. Giants win a game, get confidence, and start covering against the spread or even, gasp, win! Giants went 2-0 ATS last year against Dallas, winning 1 and ALMOST won both. Now, the Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS against NFC. Dallas is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU of late. But Dallas 2-5 ATS against NFC East, 1-4 ATS in October, and 3-6 SU in week 5. Would you believe it if the Giants won the game? Not that crazy. Would you believe if the Giants lost but kept it close? EASILY. Could they get blown out? Sure but not likely the way the offense is starting to click.

Giants +7

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.