NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.

 

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Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5

 

Week 8 NFL picks

5-2 last week (Jax, St Lou, Saints, GB under and Titans under but lost Wash and Cincy), just what the doctor ordered.  And you know what you should order?  Your tickets to see the LIVE Comics Watching Comics Show on 11/18 at Gotham Comedy Club, 5pm.  The show is being taped for Amazon Video so come out and see the up and comers as well as current comers (insert TT Boy or Ron Jeremy joke here, you hacks).  So go to http://www.gothamcomedyclub.com and get them now.  No bullshit, tickets are moving at a nice clip and the room is small so act now.

What a well played, defensive game on Thursday!  Said not by me; because I fell into the Matt Moore hype machine and got torn apart like a flat earth supporter.  So 0-1 to start and hopefully this week ends with more bang than those JFK files that were released.  Seriously, if I wanted something without an ending, I’d rewatch that lazy Sopranos finale. You call that an ending?  I call it a “lazy way out” in an attempt of being avant garde. 

Usually, I love to back up my handicaps with facts but my leadoff pick is strictly a gut one  as well as based on trends.  Was anyone impressed with the Pats win last week?  I wasn’t.  They weren’t great against the Jets either.  I think this is the year that if the Pats have to go to KC or somewhere else with a tough crowd, they could fall in the AFC championship.  In come the LA Chargers, who finally got their first “home” win against a dogshit Denver offense.  Phillip Rivers who can backdoor a cover like the best of them (seriously, how is there not a gay bar named Backdoor Cover?  Come on Mets fans, someone can make a lot of money with that!) is getting 7.5 against the worst ranked Pats defense.  Yes, I know NE is typically tough at home and yes, their D has been better of late.  Yes, I know Rivers can wave his magic wand and make a pick 6 appear on the board with less than 2 minutes week.  Yes, I know that this is a west coast team playing on the east coast at 1pm.  But any gambler knows you’re playing the number, not the team. 7.5 points is that special number.  The Chargers D is pretty good and I just see them hanging tough tomorrow.  The best stat I can give you is that the Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS on the road.  Jump on it now before it drops!

Take the Chargers +7.5

Deshone Kizer is the Browns QB…this week.  I’d rather have Kaiser Wilheim as my QB, at least he wasn’t out partying till 2 am last friday night in Cleveland.  And now they fly to England  to face the Nikes who just rolled the Ravens.  Vikings are most likely getting back Stephon Diggs and that’s just going to make things more nightmarish for Cleveland. Do you see Cleveland scoring more than 10 points?  Neither do I.  They hit 20 points ONE time all year, as I pointed out last week.  By the way, this morning at 5:30 am, someone pulled the hotel alarm.  I don’t know what they had for breakfast, which really would make this a, “who gives a shit” story. But it’s always fun when the team you want to bet against gets woken up early in their hotel.  Cleveland has the #8 defense (and #3 worst looking women, next to Pittsburgh and Philly) so it’s going to be tougher to score against them too.  Oh yeah, one more fun fact.  Minn is 8-0 the week before their bye.  This game wreaks of 20-7 so you can pretty much figure out where I’m going with this.

Take the Vikings -9.5 and the under 37.5

You know what I forgot to do, besides write better jokes in this article?  I forgot to take Seattle and the under last week against my Giants.  Those are absolute locks, Giants NEVER beat them and sure as shit can’t put points on the board.  But I’m not missing a chance this week and I’m taking Seattle this week.  Why?  Well, let’s do a social commentary first.  The Texans owner said that he didn’t “want the inmates running the asylum” and that cause quite the kerfuffle in Houston.  But if Bob McNair makes another comment like that, he may end up like Steve McNair.  KA-Boom, pun intended.  DeAndre Hopkins walked out of practice and it took the entire coaching staff to persuade the entire team not to follow suit.  You think they’re going to get fired up before getting on a plane to Seattle?  Seattle at home is pretty damn good, 5-2 ATS recently.  I see Watson having a harder time in a hostile environment.  Seattle under hit in their last 4/6 and Houston under hit 4/6 on the road.  But I think Hou COULD put up points but not enough to cover.  You’re only laying 6.5 and Houston is missing Watt and Cushing on D.  And like I said, a team pissed at their owner.

Take the Seahawks -6.5

The Colts give up an avg of 30 points a game.  That’s pretty goddamn awful, like Anchorman 2 awful.  The Bengals are home after getting skewered by the Steelers last weekend. The Colts have went 4/5 over, 10/11 over on the road, and 4/5 over in Cincy.  42 is a low number and I can EASILY see the Bengals dropping 27 points on Indy.  All you need from Brisett and company (sounds like a furniture store) are 2 TDs.

Take the Bengals over 42

Pittsburgh just destroyed the Bengals.  Martavius Bryant got demoted to the practice squad.  Detroit is off a bye and apparently shall have Golden Tate back.  Detroit isn’t great in primetime but here’s the stat that grabbed me: Pitt is 0-5-1 the week before their bye.  Pitt has improved their road ATS but I think they fall asleep at the wheel.  This game may end up in a push but let’s find out:

Take Detroit +3

And now, the lock of the week.  The Bears just shocked the pants off of the Panthers at home, 17-3.  Guess what?  14 of those points were pick 6s.  Trubisky threw SEVEN passes last week.  As I said last week, the Saints defense is better (good enough that the under hit) and they’re in New Orleans this week.  The Saints are back to their old ways of lighting it up at home and there’s just no chance that the Bears can keep up.  The Saints are 4-1 ATS and 4-0-1 ATS against the Bears.  I know it’s a high number but can you see a rookie QB matching Brees?  Nope.  

Take the Saints -9.5

I also kind of like this week: Carolina 5-1 ATS, 6-2 vs TB, 5-1 in TB.  TB 4-9 home ATS and 0-4-1 ATS.  Carolina is getting Luke Keuchly back as well.  I also like Sea under 45.5.  Seattle has gone under 4/6 and Hou on the road is also 4/6.  I think the Chiefs rebound at home after 2 bad losses and cover the 7 against the Broncos.  Lastly, I think the Bills can cover 2.5 against the Raiders at 1pm, in Buffalo.

Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

NFL Picks week 6

3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1.  Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.  

Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore.  We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right?  Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference.  I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces.  I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates.  Sometimes you  can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys.  But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi

Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice.  I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night.  What’s the score at the half?  3-2.  Yep, you read that right.  30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game.  WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left.  Jesus Christ, I could lose this game.  Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score.  The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.

This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face.  Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark.  There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts.  So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits.  Let’s get to the picks!

My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it.  I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver.  Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression.  Hair, not bad ass-ness.  Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR.  Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too.  And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points?  I don’t.  I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out!  The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight.  Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS.  And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under.  Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.

I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.  

The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville.  The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute.  I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS.  Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.

Take the Rams +2.5

The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB.  And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep.  Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop.  I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.  

Take the Pats over 48

The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October.  They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit.  Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road.  Don’t be a hero, just win money.  This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.

Take the Saints -4.5

Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special.  Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home.  Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.

Take the Bucs -1.5

 

Week 5 NFL picks ATS

Anyone have the Chiefs or the over on Monday night?  I hope you take your profitable asses and stick your heads in a blender.  Cause I put up 145 in fantasy football last week and LOST because the guy I played had the fucking KC defense.  On a fucking backwards pass.  On the last play of the game.  Boy, imagine if you had Washington and the under?  You were EASILY counting that money and buying shit on Amazon or double ended dildos, just as a gag gift to sword fight with your buddies.  Next thing you know, you got dildos in the mail which reminds you how you royally got fucked in the ass.  This HAS to go in the gambling hall of fame story as the luckiest bet/baddest beat ever.  

I mentioned profitable above and that’s the perfect description that fits me last week.  Your boy only had 3 picks but guess what?  All 3 were WINNERS.  I did take TB and the under this week.  The under on cruise control but let’s talk about TB.  Cameron Brate dropped a TD that went right into his belly.  3 plays later, missed FG by Nick “Cuntface” Folk.  He missed THREE FGs, which makes me wish a colony of fire ants takes residency in his urethra.  Bucs score late, giving me the backdoor cover.  Great…until they don’t get the onside kick and Gostkowski pulls his anti-Cuntface Folk impression by drilling a 48 yarder.  Lose by .5, awesome.  So we start this week at 1-1 and let’s go to the videotape!

Every year, there’s a team that you just hold onto because they do nothing but cover or hit the over/under.  Last year was my NY Giants under.  This year for me are the St Louis Rams.  They’re 2-2 ATS but 3-0-1 on the over.  Rams are 5/6 on the over and 4/5 at home.  Seattle are 4/5 on the road.  Seattle finally found their offensive groove against the Colts and the Rams are just lighting up the boards.  Seattle D still isn’t what it was and the Rams can score.  I’m debating about taking the Rams -1.5 because Seattle is 0-5 ATS on the road.  Also, 3-7 ATS when playing the Rams.  And that goes back to Dog Dick Jeff Fisher coaching them.  Why is it -1.5 when the Rams are home?  Shitty home crowd?  Overreaction from the bookies?  This opened at a pick em and I’m sure that the public is going to drive up the price.  

I like the Rams -1.5 but I LOVE the over at 46

Dallas lost at home last week (Good, fuck them and their bandwagon fans.  And oh yeah, Rams over hit last week.  No need for flowers, just send a cut of your winnings) and now GB comes into town.  GB with 10 days to prep and Davantae Adams passed concussion protocol.  Who do I think will win?  I think Dallas gets redemption but will I be laying hard earned dollars on them?  Probably not being that Dal is 3-8 ATS and 2-6 at home.  ESPECIALLY against with Rodgers and 10 days off.  What does that mean to me?  POINTS.  Lots of them.  53 is the number, no problem.

Take GB over 53

What wins by KC and Hou last week.  Houston destroyed the Titans so badly that Denzel won’t be able to remember them.  KC is very good and they’re in Houston this week.  How good is KC?  Good but not good enough to go undefeated.  The Texans are 9-2 SU at home so why does that matter?  The game is a pick ’em.  I think the Texans are rolling and have something special.  KC played Monday night so we’ll see if they’re lacking a little.  It’s time for their first loss and Hou is just moving right along.

Take the Texans at a pick ’em

I’m not feeling as strong about these next picks but kind of like them:

I hate betting the Eagles because A) I hate that town and B) Every time I bet them, they fuck me.  But goddamnit, Arizona is checking a LOT of boxes this week: Carson Palmer is the most sacked QB.  AZ cannot run the ball.  AZ also playing an East Coast team at 1pm.  And AZ just lost their best LB, Golden, to injury.  Zona 1-4 ATS in their last 5.  Philly 5-2 in their last 7 ATS and 6-3 at home.  And I have them as my suicide pool pick this week.  Watch them lose 27-21 at fuck me twice but man, they have to cover for me one of these days.  

Take the Eagles quickly at -6.5 before it goes up.

The experts are saying Baltimore is so bad that they’re taking the Raiders with EJ Manuel as QB.  I’d rather have Emmanuel Lewis as my QB than him.  I just cannot see the Ravens who have been smoked 2 straight weeks losing for a 3rd.  And you’re getting 2.5 points with the Ravens?  Boy, this is a statement game when you’re facing a banged Raiders o-line?  

Take the Ravens +2.5 and cross your fingers.  If it gets to 3 or more, I’ll take them.

 

Week 4 NFL picks

So fall is here and dudes who have been caught cheating on their wives are forced to go apple picking will be missing on some quality football this weekend.  Key message: Don’t get caught and use a burner phone.  Last weekend was interesting to say this least.  I ended up taking Car under, Pats over, Jacksonville, GB, and AZ under this past weekend.  That puts me at 4-3 for the week, not bad.  10-9 on the year. This week, there aren’t many games that I’m liking.  Hence why there aren’t as many picks.

I’m breaking my own rule with my first pick which is NEVER bet on the NY Giants, except the under.  But goddamnit, they covered last week and could’ve won.  I just can’t see them going to Tamp-er (Mike Francesa voice) and losing 4 straight, ok?  This team probably jelled too late to make the playoffs but they’re too good to be THIS bad.  They’ve always done well in TB, TB is banged up, and they’ll be a ton of Giants fans there too.  And they’re getting 3 points?  Please.  They’ve been getting beat up in the press all week so they’re going to come out fired up.

Take the Gmen +3

I’m liking the Broncos because they A) are at home B) are coming off a loss and C) are 8-3 ATS vs Oakland.  I know Oakland does well on the road (10-4 ATS) but they didn’t last week in Washington.  Denver is 8-3-1 at home and I like them to bounce back.  You’re laying 3 which isn’t a big deal.  Would it surprise me if there was a push?  Not one bit.  

Take Denver -3

Dallas played monday night and looked sluggish to start but finished nicely to take down the Cardinals.  But not before they gave me a heart attack as I had the under with the Cardinals driving late.  Thankfully, Bruce Arians coaches well as Asians have manners when it comes to getting onto subways.  The Rams have had 10 days off after their Thursday offensive explosion to plan for Dallas.  Dallas D is banged up and the Rams D is nothing special.  Both teams can put up points and believe it or not, Goff is the 3rd rated QB in the NFL.  He’s already thrown as many TD as he has all of last year.  Expect points…I am.

Take Dallas over 48.5

I kind of like Cincy -3 and SD -2 but not betting them.  Can see it going that way though.