Superbowl 2022 Bets and props 3/13/22

I’m grading myself on the highlighted

Props

  1. 1. Bengals over .5 FG in the 1h. We know McPherson has an absolute boot and Taylor will not gamble early in the game, he’s taking the points.
  2. 2. Rams score a rushing TD. 3 RBs and don’t be surprised if one of them run it in.
  3. 3. LOVE THIS BET every single year: 3Q outscores the 1Q. A rookie coach against a 2nd time superbowl coach will be conservative to start but after halftime, the playbook (like your moms’ legs) get opened up.
  4. 4. Over 50 Took this bet immediately after the Rams game ended and one of the times I got the worst of the number. Bengals are 4/5 under of late and Rams (on the road) are 4/5 over but throw those out. Not loving this bet now
  5. 5. Over 6.5 punts. Good defense by the Rams so that means 7 punts we need almost 2 a quarter. Not too much to ask.
  6. 6. Bengals score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3
  7. 7. Rams score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3.
  8. 8. Second half outscores the first half.
  9. 9. OBJ over 63.5.
  10. 10. Rams ML last to score last in the half
  11. 11. Bengals +1 1Q
  12. 12. Akers over 62.5 rushing yds. Freshest legs of the 3 backs and LA will look to burn clock. Speaking of burning clock.
  13. 13. Rams more time of possession.
  14. 14. Bengals +10.5/over 42.5 teaser Like this as the best side/total combo
  15. 15. Kupp over 102.5 receiving yards.
  16. 16. Bengals +4.5 Bengals 7-0 ATS of late, Rams 6-3 ATS. I think the Bengals CAN win but I’m quite confident the Bengals keep it close if they lose.
  17. 17. Longest FG made by Cincy. See bet #1
  18. 18. Most 1st downs by Rams
  19. 19. Burrow over 10.5 rushing yards
  20. 20. Opening kickoff is NOT a touchback. These balls are commemorative balls and they’re ROCK HARD according to sources.
  21. 21. More sacks by the Rams
  22. 22. Mixon over 3.5 receptions. More screen passes can happen under pressure
  23. 23. Rams NO 4th down conversion. McVay goes for it but converts only 38% of the time and this is a plus bet? Heidy ho
  24. 24. Bengals +1 3Q
  25. 25. Cincy Team Total under 23.5
  26. 26. Last team to score wins the game.

NFL Conference championship betting week ATS 1/30/22

Much like Amy Schneider, my winning streak is over but a lot less rich than she is. But I’m still better looking so I have that going for me..which is nice. The goddamn Packers fucked me royally and I went 1-5 on Saturday but 3-0 on Sunday, bringing my total for the playoffs at 14-9 (61%) and my total for the year to 113-92-1 (55%), very much still in the black. So next time you see me and I ever say, “I’m thinking about betting on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, pour bleach down my urethra and kick me in the taint as hard as possible. Let’s start out with some fun facts about conference championship weekend:

Home teams are 13-3 outright and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons (since 2013). Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons (4-0 previous 2 seasons).

This is shouldn’t be close but let’s show you how and why: Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, all as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when favored by at least four points. Mahomes is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019. Teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore. Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. He is 31-14 ATS when the total is lower. KC has gone over 5/5. Satisfied? Now something nice to say about the Bengals. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and has covered six straight games and four straight road games. And that’s it. Like Hulkamania and your mom’s house, 80k will be there this sunday and I can’t see Joe Burrow keeping this close but why gamble when gambling. Oh yeah, one more stat. Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.

KC to win the Superbowl +125

Chiefs -.5/over 47.5

  • We all know San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those six games. SF has won twice this season and we all know what happens, see the 2006 NY Giants against Dallas as a fun and friendly reminder. Yes, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 outright and ATS against Sean McVay. So let’s pile up the data: Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 straight up as a betting underdog. That is the best straight up mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a road underdog. San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week. In the last 35 seasons, teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 2-7 straight up and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS). The last team to win four straight games, all on the road was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye in between since 1961. All that being said, I’m going for the middle. I think the Rams win and cover but I also think they don’t blow them out. This can easily be 24-20, 20-16. Niners are under 6/7 of late and 4/6 under against the Rams. Rams are 5/6 under at home as well. I went light on the Rams and more with the teaser. Also went under and Akers under rushing yds because he’s a fumbling machine of late, there will be a short leash on him, especially if he coughs it up early. He hasn’t topped 55 rushing yds in any playoff game and Michel doesn’t fumble.
  • Rams -3, Niners 1h +3, Akers under rushing yds 59.5, Niners +10.5/Chiefs pick em, Rams under 45.5

Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

Film review: Scream 5

You may ask why the hell would I see the 5th installment of a horror franchise. And you’re right to question that unless you’re an ardent fan of the Fast and Furious franchise. This is a hard review to do without spoilers so bare with me. So here we are: back in Woodsboro and someone starts stabbing kids and it’s a fresh flock of kids, no regular characters to be seen. Sydney, Dewey, and Gail are al doing their own things and of course, get dragged in by a pretty good plot. BTW, I like how they brought back a couple of minor characters from 3 and 4 and nicely tied it to the story. A few small nods to the other films so if you do a rewatch of the previous ones, you’ll catch them. Once they introduce why these kids are being killed and what relationship they have to the OG characters, you’ll tip your hat to a pretty decent idea. Here’s something else that stood out to me, the cinematography…different shots and viewpoints that provide more gravity to the situation. This film also tries getting you to “jump offsides” a lot and by that I mean, try and trick you into thinking that a scare is about to happen. And one of the OG trio finally meets their match and if you didn’t see it coming a mile away when they do, shame on you. It was a huge, “THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN MOMENT” for me.

Let’s take a break in the action and talk about how the mighty have fallen. Courteney Cox, who caught this reviewer’s eye in Ace Ventura, needs to go to the Hague and apply as a victim of a crime against humanity…her plastic surgery. The only thing missing was her looking at a mirror, breaking it against a cart, and laughing maniacally. She had work done for Scream 4 and it was obvious but not overbearingly bad. Now, it’s like a 5 year old with a marker, going all willy nilly and shit. If you were to go back in time and tell 1996 Kevin that Neve Campbell was going to age better than Courteney Cox, I would’ve pushed my bangs aside and choked you with my American Eagle necklace.

The third act really picks up and maintains at a solid pace. A bunch of familiar settings and dialogue but with new twists on it that pay off quite nicely. Obviously, when the reveals are made is when the verdict is in. Does it cash in or are you staring at the screen like they’re forcing you to eat a shit sandwich? Overall, it paid off for me. I mostly bought the logic behind wanting to kill the new batch, despite some of it being recycled. And of course, you have to swallow your tongue during the final battle with a final, “THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN.” Here is a problem I have with this film and other horror films: When one of the characters is being attacked and there are allies present for the attacked, RARELY anyone jumps in. Ghostface and a good guy are wrestling and there’s a gun or knife nearby the fracas. But no one makes a mad dash for the weapon to either kill Ghostface or get the weapon to their friend? And as many times as it’s alluded to in previous Scream films, no one EVER aims for the head, always the chest? I will say I partially guessed the killer combo but didn’t nail the reasons why. This achieved a better meta theme it sought more than part 4 aspired. And that’s a common theme in this film. Right now, the audience and critics both agree this is well above average and they’re right.

I did enjoy this and now I can definitively say that the Scream franchise has a pattern: the odd numbered Screams are good, the even numbered ones are not. Rank them? Sure. 1, 5, 3, 2, 4

7/10

NFL Wild Card weekend 1/15/22 against the spread bets

Finished the season on a high, 7-5 and 5 straight winning weeks brings me to a total of 100-83-1 to 54.6% for the year, over the break even number of 52.5%. Cross those fingers as we hopefully walk up to CASH THOSE TICKETS

Tonight’s picks:

Cincy 1h under 24.5 and Cincy under 48.5

Vegas has gone under 4/6 of late and playing 5 quarters on a short week doesn’t help. Cincy has gone under 7/10 against the AFC west. A second year head coach and an interim head coach are going to come out conservative. Banged up Burrow also gives minor concern. I see a lot of running for both teams and can the ferocious pass rush of the Raiders be neutralized by the Bengals? Before last year’s expanded bracket, the under was 15-0-1 in #3 vs #6 matchups. Under is 26-11-1, 12-6 of late.

Pats first half under 22.5

Pats have gone under 4/5 on the road.Bills have gone under 7/10 in January. It’s going to be ZERO degrees tonight. Mac Jones grew up in FL and played in Bama, never in zero degrees so this will be interesting to see. On the flip side, Josh Allen has played 4 games below freezing and hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yds or achieved 56% completion rate in that weather. I gotta imagine Pats have the #1 defense on 3rd and 4th down while the Bills have the top run defense.

You know how many teams the Eagles beat that were over .500 this year? ONE, the Saints. And now they’re in TB, against the top run defense and all Philly does is run. Bucs are 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. Home favorite of a TD or more are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS. And if you think Tom Brady forgot how the Eagles beat him in a Superbowl, you’re sorely mistaken. I know there’s no Fournette but they have JPP and Shaq Barrett back on defense. At the same time, I’m not keen on laying 8.5 so I teased this game

Edit: Added Bills 2H +.5

First half of teaser: Tampa -2.5 Also Philly team total under 17.5, Gronk +115 to catch an anytime TD and Brate +440 to catch an anytime TD

Continuing on the theme of heavy favorites (no, not talking about your mom), I think the same number of scenarios where the Avengers said they beat Thanos is the same number that the Steelers have in KC. Ben looked worse than a kid with polio trying to dunk a basketball in a regulation sized hoop. Steelers got triple penetrated the first time they played and I know Tomlin as an underdog is fantastic but this KC freight train SHOULD barrel through the Steelers. Home favorites by 10 or more are 5-0 (See TB as well) KC 6-0 SU at home, 9-1 SU and 6-2 ATS of late. I’m pretty sure people don’t make money when they’re laying 12.5 in the NFL so let’s finish up the teaser.

Second half of teaser: Chiefs -6.5 and also Chiefs 1H -7

Road teams are 14-4 ATS and 15-3 SU. Dogs are 12-4-1 ATS in NFC wild card games and dogs in the past 4 seasons are 15-3. Here’s the big bullet, home favorites since 03 that are laying 7 or fewer are 14-28-1. Know where I’m going with this? SF is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Here’s the big factor, Niners are 7-3 SU on the road. I always talk about platinum Golden Corral member, Mike McCarthy, can fuck up boiling water. Dallas has beaten how many teams over .500? TWO. Chargers and the Pats. Not exactly bursting with confidence to take Dallas, are you? And guess who fired in at the right time? Me. And I’m willing to bet if you wait till kickoff, you can also get

Niners +3.5 and Niners team total over 23.5

Week 18 NFL picks ATS, let’s get that FREEEE MONEY!

Just like your mom shaking her ass at a bachelor party, the money keeps rolling in. 7-2 last week which brings my total to 93-79-1, 54% for the year. Hot damn, we’re humming. Bad news is I took Chiefs 1h team total over 14 and Chiefs 1h -6 last night. I’d like to think after scoring a TD, the last thing you want to do his hold the opponent to 3 and out and then get a roughing the kicker penalty. Of course, that leads to them driving for an equalizing TD. And of course in full transparency, I always suck in the final week of the season so let’s put the voodoo hex on that trend.

Giants are losers of 5 straight, losing by 18.4 ppg. They’re AVERAGING 10.6 ppg on offense in the last 5, 15.7 ppg for the year which is 31st. Taylor Heinecke is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS as a favorite. Giants 0-5 ATS since Jones got hurt and Frohm back in there? I know the Giants covered (and should’ve won but hey, they’re the Giants) the first meeting but that’s when Jones was in and they gave a modicum of a fuck. I see zero fight from them.

Skins teased down to 0 and Skins teased to +.5 in another teaser with TB -2.5. Also, Giants team total under (yep, again) 16

You may accuse me of being frivolous since I just won THREE fantasy football titles last weekend (driving that point home) and decided to get all loose goosey with my money. What you’re about to see may shock you: (insert my penis inside Emily Ratajowski’s mouth photoshopped picture) We all know that Jags are awful: Jags defense 11th in YPG and 2nd in PPGA. Jags are 1-0 ATS and SU as a 14 point dog plus this year. Jags 0-7 ATS of late but against the Colts, wow. 11-1-1 ATS with 4 straight covers. I teased this baby up to an insane amount so let’s see if Trevor “how do I fit my nose in this helmet” Lawrence can fuck up a 21 point spread.

2nd half of teaser Jags +21.5

I should’ve laid the house on the Steelers last week +3.5, that was an easy win. Ben’s final game at home and although not razzle dazzling with his efforts, cruised to an easy win. And I was also set to take the Ravens this week because how many hard luck losses can you accrue this season? Lamar out again and maybe Huntley pulls this out for the W. Ravens dead last in YPP allowed and the Ravens are also allowing league high 6.5 yards after the catch. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS of late but 1-5 SU recently. Pitt is 7-3 SU against Bal but 1-5 SU on the road. Here’s what I’m hoping for: Baltimore to win (I have Pitt under 8.5 wins this year and that would clinch it) and Pitt to cover. But why not give me more cushion as these AFC Central division games USUALLY fall within a FG.

Teased Pitt to +10 and Alabama to +9. Right, I know nothing about college football but it just seems insane to me that Bama is getting points in a national championship game.

Here’s another “let’s hope this is a tight division game.” I have Saints under 9 and Saints no playoffs tickets so an outright loss would be just dandy. Saints are 6-2 ATS against the Falcons and 5-1 ATS against them. But they’re averaging 13.8 ppg in the last 4 and Taysom Hill 4-1 ATS on the road, Falcons are 0-6 ATS at home . Falcons were giving Buffalo until dumbass Matt Ryan started taunting them before he got into the end zone. I think the Falcons can win but for sure, keep it close. Also Saints have gone under 6/6 of late, ATL 7/8, and 5/6 under heads up.

ATL +10.5 and under 45.5 in a teaser

Bears haven’t played anyone worth a shit and now the Red Rocket comes to Minnesota. Bears are 3-8 ATS of late but 6-3 ATS and 5-2 SU against Minn. Vikings 2-8 ATS this year as home favorite but 34-18-1 ATS after a loss under Zimmer. Looks like Zimmer is about to get fired so they may give a spirited effort. The line opened at 2.5, went as high as 5.5, now is back to 4. I grabbed it at -4 and teased it to +.5 when it was at 5.5 I think the Vikings can win by a TD today.

Minn -4 and Minn +.5 as part 1 of a teaser with Raiders over.

I think the line is too high with Miami and here’s why: Dolphins are 4-1 ATS at home, 5-0 SU of late. Oh yeah, Pats are 2-4 SU against Miami and 2-6 ATS in Miami. Brian Flores is 14-8 ATS as a single digit dog. Miami 5-3 SU against the Pats and was an underdog in all but one of those games. Miami got fingerpopped like a gymnast by Larry Nasser last week but hell, they’re still 6-2 ATS of late. Miami 7/9 under of late and 4/5 under vs NE.

Dolphins +12.5 and under 46

Could you imagine if the Colts lost today and then the Chargers could tie with the Raiders and both make the playoffs? That would royally fuck 2 of my bets up but here we go. Chargers have gone over 6/7 of late but under 7/10 against the Raiders. Raiders have gone 5/7 but shit, I think points can be scored, especially when you tease! Herbert 1-3 ATS as a road favorite but the home team (Vegas) in final game is 1-4 ATS since 2015. Raiders 1-5 ATS at home playing against the Chargers but 4-2 SU of late. Raiders with a HUGE win against the Colts last week and if they win, they’re in. And maybe if the Raiders won, Mark Davis can treat himself to a real haircut instead of that bad bowl job that that creepy ass Christian family who mistreated their 10 kids had.

Vegas +3 and Vegas over 42 teased with Pitt +10. Also, Vikings +.5 and Vegas over 43 in another teaser with the Vikings.

Aaron Rodgers says he wants to play to keep some momentum before heading into the bye. That’s enough to tempt me to take him for a quarter but not the 1h as they yank him by q2. I’m tempted to grab Det in the second half but let’s see.

GB 1Q -1

Good luck and let’s get that FREEEEE MONEY!

NFL picks week 17 ATS

FINALLY, we’re back on that streak that we talked about, 4 winning weeks in a row! 5-2 last week and 86-77-1 for a 53% win percentage for this year. Week 17 has always been the bane of my existence but not this year as week 18 is the new week 17. Thankfully, one more week before I have that bed shitting week, let’s windmill those dicks while we’re in line at the DMV. And while you’re at it, wish me luck in my 3 fantasy leagues that I reached the finals. Out of 4 leagues, I’ll gladly take 3 paydays!

Show me an iota of respect for the NY Giants offense and I’ll show you someone who is always diplomatic and can’t ever value their opinion. Giants under has hit 7/9 of late and why trust Mike Glennon on the road? They BARELY scored 10 points against Philly and now they’re in Chicago. I just can’t see them putting up more than 2 TDS against Akeem Nicks and the rest of the Bears D.

Giants team under 16 points

This is going to be a 2 prong win if this hits. I have a Titans to win division ticket and this is the home run spot as they get 10 days off and play the Dolphins who are on a short week. Miami has played a slew of shitty QBs of late and not saying Tannehill is great but he’s better than the Ian Book and Zack Wilsons of the world. Titans 2-4 ATS of late but 8-3 SU of late. They’re 6-1 SU at home and they have a chance to lock up division should the Colts lose against the Raiders, especially with Went battling Covid. The Dolphins are indeed on fire of late: 6-1 ATS, 7-0 SU, and 11-5 SU against Tenn. I think Tenn wins and covers and I’m on the right side of the line.

Titans -3

Baltimore Ravens are as bad a mess as their shitty accent. Seriously, that accent is a stone’s throw from Philly and every time I hear it, I think someone from a flea market is trying to sell me samurai swords. I don’t know who’s playing QB tomorrow but a hobbled Lamar doesn’t scare me. Huntley is decent and I’d love to play the over. But I can’t trust the Ravens to put up their share of points but you know what I can trust besides your mom rubbing her slit on my knee after 3 Long Island Ice teas? The Baltimore secondary getting abused like a newsgirl on day 1 working for Roger Ailes. We say the Bengals pile on the Ravens so why can’t the Rams? Rams have gone over 4/5 on the road and for rooting interests, I have Stafford in 2 leagues in the finals. Can they score more than 26 points? I sure as shit think so. Ravens are 28th for defense in DVOA and dead last week since week 10. Also, 29 ppg allowed in the last 4 for the ravens D.

Rams team over 26 points

Bengals beat up the Ravens and they need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt, 4-2 ATS and SU of late. The Chiefs are playing like the team we thought they were, 6-0 ATS and 8-0 SU of late, so where does this leave us? Right here: Chiefs are 0-5 SU in Cincy. Can the Cincy o-line contain that pass rush? I hope and think that they can.

Bengals +5.5

Same game, different aspect.

Cincy team total over 23.5 points

Cincy has gone over 4/5 at home and 6/9 of late. Bengals are 27th in points allowed at home but 7th in points scored. Chiefs are 4/6 over of late as well, 4th in total points. Points will be had so let’s simplify shit and make this a teaser:

First half of teaser: Chiefs over 45

Sometimes I hesitate and it bites me in the ass, sometimes I get lucky. Yesterday, I got bitten in the ass as I delayed putting in the Vikings under and wouldn’t you know it, Captain Anti-Vax is out with Covid. So of course, the line drops and I’m caught holding the bag. Usually, I would never bet an under involving Green Bay or Vikings but obviously with Cousins out, this game won’t be putting up the points we thought. No Adam Thielen as well so this helps our cause. Also, this is the Sunday night game where it’s going to be 10 degrees in GB, not exactly inviting high scores. Again, all the trends point over but I’m betting on a backup screwing up as well as frigid GB.

Second half of teaser: Vikings under 48

Baker Mayfield looked sloppier than the prom queen during her 20th high school reunion. They get another day of rest and go to Pittsburgh who got prison raped and filleted last week against the Chiefs. Browns of late are 2-4 ATS and SU. Browns are 1-4 ATS in Pittsburgh, 1-17 SU in Pitt. Steelers 5-0-1 SU of late at home sure as hell doesn’t hurt. And I’m sure we’re going to hear this till our taints hurt but you may have heard this is Rothliesberger’s last home game. Call me a sentimental dips hit but I think that the combination of his last game, Pitt coming off a straight up cunt punting, and getting in at the right number, this is a winning play.

Pitt +3.5

Remember how I said how I don’t act early enough some times and how it bites me or I’ve gotten lucky? Well in this game, I acted early and I’m wise to have done so. Locked in the Texans +13 Tuesday night and the next day, Jimmy G is announced that he has a thumb with 2 fractures. The Texans D surprisingly quasi held down the Chargers last week and they’re 15th against the pass, 18th in DVOA. San Fran pass defense is 23rd against the pass and Mills has been airing it out pretty well. Trey Lantz will probably start and no better time to bet against a rookie QB who hasn’t earned a start vs a team who’s playing hard and catching almost 2 touchdowns. And Houston has already won 2 outright as a double digit dog. Lastly, Niners are 4-11 SU at home, yuck.

Houston +13

I know I said this last week but shit, I can’t see any of these teams losing outright this week:

TB/Bills/Pats/GB ml parlay

NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

NFL playoffs picks ATS week 15 sports betting

Don’t look now, (just kidding, you better look) but your favorite NFL picks guy is on a bit of a rush: 7-3 last week, 16-6 the last 2 weeks, which takes me to 76-71-1. Pats are 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS overall. They give up the fewest PPG, 15.4, as well as 3rd in yards allowed. Pats also allowed 5-1 ATS against Indy, 8-0 SU, and 16-3-1 ATS in Indy. Yes, most are with Brady but what I’m drawing here is a comparison how Bellichick owns the Colts. Colts aren’t getting it done at home, 3-7 ATS but they’re 7-3 ATS of late Short story long, this is too many points to give a team that should be a slight favorite or pick em. But you know how I love giving myself an unfair competitive advantage to let’s tease them up to 8.5.

The Jets are worse than watching a woman give a rape confession; Jets allow an average of 166 yds per game so hopefully Myles Gaskin plays for all of you that have made the fantasy playoffs (4/4 leagues for this guy) The Dolphins are giving up 11 ppg since week 9 and now they get Zack Wilson who looks like Rita Wilson out there. Jets are 1-5 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against Miami, 1-6 ATS in Miami. Dolphins are white hot, 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. Let’s get this baby below a FG.

Pats +8.5 and Jets -2.5

Let’s call this one, “keep your butthole puckered for that backdoor cover.” This has to be the tantamount definition of “trap game” for the Cardinals as they face the Colts on Christmas next week. Lions are finished nursing they gaping wounds after going to Denver and I think that a banged up James Connor and no DeAndre Hopkins spell somewhat trouble for the Cardinals. And the Lions cover at home: 7-2 when getting 4 points or more. They’re also 4-1 ATS of late as well as 8-5 ATS this season. Cardinals do cover on the road, 7-0 ATS and 8-3 ATS of late but I can see Arizona taking their foot off the gas and cruise to a 2 TD victory. Let’s get this baby above 2.5 TDs

Second half of the teaser is an easy one, I think. As we know, Tomlin as home dog of late, 17-6-1 and 5-0-1 as a home. Tenn is 1-4 SU in Pitt and 2-6 SU but 7-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. Titans offense looks as broken any former girlfriend of Marilyn Manson and just like him, I’m locking Tennessee in a sex room until Derrick Henry comes back. Pitt at home is 4-0-1 SU of late and they’re fighting for their life. I have Pitt under 8.5 for the year and Titans to win division so let’s try and kill 3 birds with one stone. Pitt is getting 1.5 and let’s take the other 6 points and take it to….

Lions +18.5 and Pitt +7.5

Giants are 5-0-1 as a home under. Mike Glennon stinks and the Dallas defense is swarming on QBs like your Mom swarms me after I just scrub my balls. They’re also 6/7 under of late, 9/10 at home. Dallas has gone 6/7 under of late and Dak looked awful against the hapless Skins defense; including chucking up a pick 6 that got me home to a Wash +10 teaser. Giants are so lifeless that you’d think they’re doing their best Terry Shiavo impression. Too soon? Giants lose in an inglorious fashion, 27-10 and below…

Cowboys under 44.5

I like to fire in bets early in the week and I’d like to think most of the time it works. And when I saw Houston was getting 3, I said that is insane and the wrong team is favored. About 3 hours later, Urban Meyer gets fired. And of course, the line gets pounded upward so your old pal KG is going to get shitty closing line value. But Davis Mills through the ball around all over the Seattle Seahawks d and he can do this against the Jags defense as well. Houston 5-2 ATS against Jax, 5-1 SU in Jax, and 7-0 SU against Jax. If Trevor Lawrence get his helmet over that monstrous nose, congrats. But he still has win by more than 3 for me to lose this bet and the stats aren’t backing it up of late, 1-4 ATS, and Lawrence hasn’t thrown for more than 1 TD in 12 straight games. Jags haven’t scored more than 23 since their trip to London where they beat the Dolphins and then pressed their penises against double decker bus windows. I know firing Meyer can be big for the Jags but the talent on that field isn’t going to get it done.

Houston +3

Jags team total under 21.5

Why not take this in a teaser with another bet for a team that truly needs it? Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 road games while Den is 4-2 ATS of late. I think the Bengals keep it close and could win but doesn’t lose by more than a score.

Texans +10.5 and Bengals +7.5

Tell me which of these teams is going to lose and why: Bills after a gut punch loss and against a dogshit offense. Bucs home against a division rival who beat them on the road and they’re home now and their opponent’s coach is out w/Covid. Miami gets a home game against a team and coach who are more lost than a Des Moines Iowa farmer in Harlem.

ML parlay Bills, Bucs, Cards Mia

Edit:

Lost the Pats teaser last night so I grabbed the Dolphins to tease with the Bills: Mia -2.5 and -5.5

NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5