NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

NFL Week 4 picks ATS

4-1 last week. Detroit 1h, winner. Buffalo, winner. Pats and Cincy over teaser, winner. I took Dallas/TB teaser after the Giants looked as useless and lost as Chris Matthews did at the debate the other night. 11-4 on the year and let’s continue the good vibes.

The Bills got a monster gift from the refs after blowing a 20 point lead late. I guess McDermott is doing his best Atlanta Falcons impression but thankfully didn’t commit to the bit. Now the Bills are in Vegas where apparently, they’re giving Groupons to the likes of Tekashi 69 fans to stay at high end hotels. It truly has become a garbage people fly trap. Now, the Raiders are without 2 WRs, their #1 draft pick CB, banged up Jacobs. The all time stats don’t back up this play but the Bills are not banged up but they’re playing a banged up team. Raiders 0-5-1 vs AFC east and 3-8 ATS in October. Oakland beat the Panthers and Saints who aren’t excacly setting the world on fire. Bills laying less than a TD on the road is a gift so might as well grab them before the luxury tax hits you.

Bills -3

This has been beaten over the head by all the sharps but it bears repeating. Seattle’s pass rush and pass defense is one big prolapsed anus. Now they’re making the longest flight possible and playing in Florida heat after going to the wire against Dallas (ahem, a winner last week). Fitzpatrick is the king of backdoors next to Lieutenant Proctor and Captain Harris at the Blue Oyster. Also, 3 extra days to rest and plan after they smoked the Jags. Miami 4-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU home vs Seattle, and 4-2 in October. Seattle 1-6 ATS against Miami. Both teams are putting up massive points: Seattle has gone over 4/5, 12/16 vs AFC, and 7/8 vs AFC east. Miami has gone over 7/10, 5/5 at home, 4/6 vs NFC west. So why the hell not make things easier on us, especially with the over

Teasing Miami +12 and over 48

Drew Brees is averaging the 5 yds per pass attempt. Why? Because no Michael Thomas or Drew Brees doesn’t have the arm strength? Maybe. But The Saints are slow starters AND have 6 key starters OUT. Thomas, Cook, BOTH STARTING CBs, a guard and DE. I think the Lions got the monkey off their back with the win and now at home. Detroit catching 3 in the first half and I think they do so with ease again this week.

Detroit +3 1H

Cincinnati tying the Eagles was just dandy, watching that insanely overrated team tie the Bengals. 5 quarters played takes a toll and now they get the Jags who also have 3 extra days to prep. I say the Bengals put up a better show than their fellow city counterparts, the Reds, but I don’t think they win or even cover. Some stats, why not? Jags 4-2 ATS of late, 11-5 SU against Cincy, 4-1 ATS against AFC and 9-0-1 against AFC north. Cincy 2-17-1 SU of late and 2-7 SU at home, 3-6 ATS against AFC south, and 1-6 in October. Bengals shouldn’t be giving anyone points. Line is now Cincy -2.5 so you could consider taking them now but

I got the Jags +3

Injuries are afoot in TB. Godwin and Fournette out, Scotty Miller is also in danger of missing the game. Mike Williams and Bryan Bulaga are out for the Chargers. Chargers D and Tampa D both playing well; Chargers haven’t allowed more than 21 points all year and TB hasn’t allowed more than 17 in the last 2 weeks. Chargers 6-3 ATS against TB, 5-1 SU against TB. TB SU 1-9 in October. TB under 4/6, The under is also in play; Chargers have hit the under in 4/5, 4/5 against NFC, I think the Chargers keep it close enough to cover but again, let’s even help ourselves out even more.

Teasing Chargers +13 and under 49

Kansas City and the Pats has been postponed to hopefully Tuesday. I’m too tired to bother with a Cover joke for Cam. Lucky for me, I bet it Friday night as part of a teaser, down to 1 along with GB-1. Last line I saw, KC is now -11.5, definitely teaser territory as well as it gets you under 7. Pats are 2-7 SU in KC, 3-6 ATS. KC 11-1 ATS, 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home. And now no Cam? KC boat races the shit out them.

Falcons are 4-2 ATS against GB and 5-0 ATS on road, 6-1 ATS in GB. Yeah but still. Falcons have been more demoralized than a freshman after her first fraternity gang bang in their last 2 games; blowing 20 its leads twice in 2 weeks. GB 4-1 ATS, 9-1 SU, 7-0 SU at home. GB also 5-1 SU in october and 4-1 ATS in week 4. Give me the team that’s just steamrolling the piss out of everyone at home vs the team who’s been cunt punted the last 2 weeks. And I’m only laying 1? Please.

KC -1 and GB in a teaser

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

NFL Super Bowl 2019 ATS picks

The Super Bowl is truly bittersweet for me.  On one end, this signifies the end of the NFL season.  It also signifies the end of the freeeeeee money printing press that’s been in my house since week 1.  Even though I went 1-2 last week, (took the Saints under but lost the teaser and KC under.  How the fuck did they beat me when the halftime score was 14-0 and the OU was 56?  Wow.) I’m still 60% (72/120) for the year.  That’s pretty damn solid, a high water mark for my career.  And for the finale of the season, I’m only taking the side in this game, I’m not sure about the total but I’m leaning under.  What I do have are 7 prop bets.  I’m not counting those against my W/L record for the season.  Here we go: 

What did we learn 2 weeks ago?  The rumor of the Pats death is greatly exaggerated.  Brady did what he does best, score with the opposing team giving him too much time.  Andy Reid is the worst clock manager, worse than any Jets head coach.  Fun fact, the Pats fans will travel to the game, Rams fans barely show up at home.  You think they’re getting on a 6 hour flight?  I don’t.  

The worst thing the Rams have going against the are the Pats lost to the Eagles last year.  Brady is looking to getting another ring before considering retirement.  He says he’s not but his abilities have definitely shown regression.  I’ll lay the load on Gronkowski retiring this season, ESPECIALLY if they win.  I always back up my handicaps with numbers: 4-1 SU in their last 5, 8-4 ATS.  5-0 SU vs the Rams, 5-1 ATS but to be fair, this was pre-McVay.  I will also say that after each of their first 2 Super bowl losses, they won their next appearance in the Super bowl.  Yes, the Super bowl dogs are 13-4 ATS and 6/7 winning outright.  Pats are not the bet in the Super bowl, 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.  BUT the Pats are 8-0 against playoff teams this year.  How do you beat Brady?  Putting him on his back more than your mother.  Just ask my NY football Giants.  The Rams DO have those pass rushers in Suh and Donald who can get the QB.  But Brady faced ZERO pressure from the Chiefs who have a decent pass rush.  When was the last the Patriots bad loss?  Against the Titans…in October.  And the Chargers D got buttfucked with their zone defense against the Pats run.  So if the Rams are going to win, it’s because the D got Brady and maybe got a turnover or 2.

But remember, betting the NUMBER wins you games, not the team.  I jumped on this bet an hour after the AFC game was over but as of Sat night, it’s 2.5.  If you’re liking the Pats, jump on it now.  I did because when they do win, they barely win.  It’s less than a FG.  And Bellichick gets 2 weeks to prep for Jared Goff who was ok vs the Cowboys but good (especially in the 2nd half) vs the Saints.  The Pats players combined for over 60 Super Bowl games of experience.  The Rams?  2.  The newness/inexperience for the Rams players will put them at a disadvantage.  Oh yeah, Todd Gurley was AWFUL against the Saints.  He’s obviously pretty hobbled.  For the Patriots, this routine is as easy for them as Sunday morning, deflate balls, or tape other teams practices.  This is the last one for the Patriots.  It makes me sick having to bet them again but I might as well financially capitalize on them winning.  It will be the Rams’s time soon, just not yet.

I bet the Pats -1.5 

After Julian Edelman, who is Brady’s best pass catcher? James White by a landslide.  He had 15 catches vs the Chargers but 4 vs KC.  He had 97 yds vs LAC, 49 vs KC.  I just see them dinking and dunking against the Rams D.  They’re not stretching the field with the lack of deep threat and Brady’s arm is weaker.  So you can bet that White is getting his catches and yards.  And remember, he decimated the Falcons in the Superbowl 2 years ago with a 14 for 110 yds performance.

James White over 6 catches, James White over 52.5 receiving yards.

This game will be close so feel free to take YES on:

Game will be tied again after 0-0.  

Pats D combined 24 1Q points in their 8 Super bowl games.  Pats have scored 3 TOTAL points in those 8 first quarters.  Rams also push the pedal down in the 2nd half, not the first half.

1Q under 10.5

This happens nearly EVERY year.  Teams get looser after half time, break out the gadget plays.  MOST teams play it conservatively in the first half and defenses begin to tire in the second half.

More scores in the 2nd half than 1st, -.5

I know I said above that the Pats are notoriously SLOW starters with 3 pts in ALL of the first quarters in their Super bowl appearances.  For some reason, I think they’re going to slightly outscore the Rams early as the Rams will be a bundle of nerves, especially in the first quarter.

Pats -.5 in the 1Q

Julian Edelman in 7 of the last 11 over 79.5 yards.  In the playoffs, 10/12 over 79.5 receiving yards.  Roby-Fullman (the guy who popped the Saints WR where no PI was called) will be most likely covering Edelman.  Gronk won’t be getting the main passing yards and Hogan/Dorsett aren’t the big targets.  Definitely Brady’s security blanket, he didn’t play last year, and he missed 4 games this year.  He’ll want to make a name for himself this Superbowl.

Edelman over 82.5 yds

OVER National Anthem time.  People know the length via rehearsal, hence why it’s so high on over.

OVER 3 times I poop Monday morning from all of the awful food.  

UNDER 9 Tito’s and club.  I have to drive home and be responsible.  

OVER 8.5 times I say throughout the night that the next time I watch an NFL game will be in Vegas.

And if you’re wondering my box numbers, here they are:

Rams 5, Pats 8

Rams 4, Pats 8

Rams 8, Pats 0

Rams 3, Pats 1

Rams 9, Pats 1

Rams 1, Pats 0

Rams 2, Pats 5

Rams 0, Pats 4

Good luck in the last game of the year.  The next time I’m betting football, I’ll be in Vegas. And I hope you are too.

NFL Championship Weekend ATS picks

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This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.

law of av·er·ag·es

noun  

  1. the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

 

Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155 

mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways.  LOA turns on the 

sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no 

such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.  

Thanks for the warning, officer.”  And what happens?  You pull away slowly, staying 

within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away.  And what do we all

do then?  Fucking floor it.  And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it.  2 more weeks to 

print money, let’s get it.

 

2-2 last week.  Dallas over and KC under both came home.  Unfortunately, both horseface

Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game.  Did you see him on 4th and goal with

:06 left?  Didn’t get the line set and the game was over.  He took his sweet ass time with a

chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year.  He gets a

pass for being rock solid all year long.  Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out

the garbage from Philly.  71/117 on the year,  61% for the year.  Still rocking and rollin’,

baby.  

 

Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year.  I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are

winning the Superbowl.  They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last

week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week.  But you know what wasn’t off?  That

defense.  The Saints can run and stop the run.  Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.  

Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU.  The problem for the Rams is

Goff.  He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road.  The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,

Goff didn’t.  Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.  

They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas.  Goff last 3 vs playoff

teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs.  Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28

times and the ball was run 48 times.  Wow.  You know the Saints in the last 8 games have

the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense?  Lastly, in the last 8 games, the

Saints are giving up  14 ppg.  Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob

Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense.   I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees 

has one more Superbowl run left in him.  And we’re going to ensure it happens by…

 

Teasing the Saints to +3

 

The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time.  I’m sure you’ve seen the 

meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady.  Much like Goff last week, 

Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did.  Yes, he dumped off to James White a 

ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield.  The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and 

didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws.  The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but

4-2 ATS in KC.  However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC.  The KC defense

got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week.  The only

thing that  scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.  

Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument.  Although the Chiefs D is

suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away.  Eric Berry is questionable and may come

back on defense.  If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can

get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back.  And we all know during conference

championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games.  No teams

has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs.  More bad news for the

Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps.  When Josh Gordon

was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.  

Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA.  That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without

Gordon.  If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble.  Last stat: the

Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points

which is 9 PPG.  Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year.  And the wins they

had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where

the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line.  I know betting against the Pats is

usually not a profitable adventure.  But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady

is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more

comfortable using racial slurs. 

 

Second half of teaser Chiefs +3

 

Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14.  It’s not going to be as cold as

everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees.  I think that there will

be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the

dump off passes to White.  Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or

less.  So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…

Under 54.5

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

scrooge_mcduck_

My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.”  Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself.  Words to live by.  My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.”  Brilliant.  You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before?  Taking selfies.  Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail.  WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT!  Hashtag livin that balla life.”  Yuck.  Act like you’ve been there before.  That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life.  Which is sad.  You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time?  The first step is playing the part.  Act like you’ve been there before.

Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice.  Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before.  Even though I haven’t.  Last year, I was 56%,  Pretty good.    How did I do last week?  Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season.  So let’s keep cashing tickets.  And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it.  We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!

Lock of the week:

If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land.  Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash.  Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.”  And that’s what we going to do again this week.  Because I love the Saints.  And I love them home AND off a bye.  Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game.  3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones.  The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly.  Yeah, I know what you’re going to say.  The Saints offense has slowed down the last month.  You’re right, it did.  BUT how many of those games were at home?  Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees.  What did they score for those 3 home games?  48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt.  Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago.  Watch them make a run like last year.”  Yeah, they also had home field last year.  Yep, now give me the road warrior argument.  You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12.  So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears.  Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears?  Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary.  Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints?  At home?  After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month?  I don’t.  BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home.  Remember what I said about don’t be a hero?  Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor.  9 and 51.5 are a lot.  So what?  So let’s dance!

I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week.  I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them.  They’re 10-1 since week 6.  Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out.  His red zone stats, stupid.  32 TDs, 1 INT.  He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more.  Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski?  Wow.  Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards.  Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run?  Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6.  Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6.  Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC.  KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW.  I know, a dome team in the snow.  Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good.  KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy.  I love the Colts, they can even win outright.  And I love them a lot more when I…

Tease the Colts to +11.  I also took the under 56.5.  

The cockroaches are out.  That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA.  The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up.  Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers.  The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number.  4-7-2 overall ATS of late.  And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health?  If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word.  But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up.  Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team.  Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round.  God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities.  Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams.  Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late.  They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models.  Running=controlling the clock.  Dallas is going to keep this close.  One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016.  Impressive, as is getting 7.  But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…

The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.  

 

 

NFL picks Wildcard weekend ATS 2018

Bullying is frowned upon in today’s society.  But I’m a bully, that’s right, a bully.  I’ve bullied the shit out of my bookie for this season and ESPECIALLY in the month of December.  I went 21-5 in December, are you fucking kidding me?  81% is just out of this world.  I’m going to humblebrag these fun facts:  I’ve paid for a new mattress with all of this free money.  I paid for all my Christmas gifts with all of that free money.  I paid for a trip to the Caymans with all of this free money.  And I all ask from you, 9 loyal readers, is watch the latest and greatest season of Comics Watching Comics, Season 7, only on Amazon Video.  You’re getting the all-star panel, the people YOU voted to see on the All-Star edition.  So here it is and my promise to you, it will not disappoint.  Onto the picks.

Yes, the playoffs are a completely different animal.  Always try and find that hot team with karma in their pocket and ride them to the end.  This year, I think it’s the Saints.  Who out of the AFC?  Maybe the Colts, maybe the Chiefs.  But not the Texans.  Why?  Because the Texans may have one of the best pass rushes out there.  However, the Colts have the #1 ranked offensive line, only allowing 16 sacks in 16 games.  I think my boy Eli Manning would sell his children on the dark web or to Apple to make iPhones for that kind of protection.  The Colts have made me an absolute windfall of cash this season.  Is this a loyalty pick?  No.  Because even though they played Sunday night and they’re the first game on Saturday,  I think Andrew Luck can be the QB to possibly carry his team on his shoulders to the end.  Colts are 9-1 SU of late, 6-3 ATS on the road.  Colts are 5-0-1 in Houston and 17-7 SU vs Houston.  A more telling number: Colts were 5-2 ATS vs teams over .500.  Texans were 3-6 ATS vs teams over .500.  The line is 1.5 and if you’re taking the dog, you might as well take the money line as there is little value taking the 1.5.  

Hence why I grabbed the Colts on the ML +110.

Teasers have been working well for me this year, my first loss with a teaser was last week when GB failed to show up against Detroit.  Seattle is a team that you don’t want to face as Russell Wilson has become a comeback kid and no lead is safe enough.  Yes, Dallas has been good on defense but that defense gave up over 30 points last week to the Giants in a completely meaningless game.  No, they didn’t sit any of their regulars except Zeke.  Last I checked, Jason Garrett is not one to be trusted in the playoffs.  And along with other fans of NFC East teams, I’d like to thank Garrett for doing well this season as now Jerry is going to HAVE to give Garrett a new deal.  His piss poor clock management and abusing of timeouts are always welcome.  Seattle is one of the best running teams and Dallas is ok at stopping the run.  Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 6-1 SU as well.  Seattle 4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 SU on the road.  Seattle 4-1 SU playing Dallas.  Seattle has went over 7/8.  I think this stays close so let’s take Seattle and tease them up to +7.  Cause if Seattle is down, they can EASILY backdoor a cover with a TD in your pocket.  But Seattle can also put up points through the air.  Doug Baldwin gives them the NFL’s best explosive pass rate when he’s on the field (12% vs 6% when he’s not).  This is also a low total, 43.5.  This game can EASILY be 24-21 and hit the over.

First part of teaser: Seattle from +1 to +7 and separately the over, 43.5

Chargers just played Baltimore 2 weeks ago (hit that under, thank you).  So now they have real time experience against Lamar Jackson.  SD stinks at home but have only 1 loss on the road this year.  5-0 SU and ATS on the road, pretty damn good.  They’re also 5–0 against teams that are in the bottom 10 of pass defenses.  The Browns just showed everyone how to exploit the Ravens defense. Chargers are 4-2 ATS in Baltimore.  Baltimore is good at home, 4-1 ATS.  And we know Phil Rivers has yet to win a big game in the playoffs.  So why not stack my odds with the second half of my teaser?  No way the Ravens win by more than a TD.

Chargers +8.5. 

NFL Picks ATS Week 14

Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table.  To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops.  Colts got shut out by the Jags,  Ooops.  Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops.  Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB.  47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs.  And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends.  Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1.  The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss.  But of late:  Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB.  And rain for some of the day as well.  Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under.  This one sings out to me  so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5 
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs?  Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun.  Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl.  Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today?  Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job.  That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year.  “Another loss?  Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.”  ATL 1-5 ATS of late.  Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable.  I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
GB -3.5
What does Kansas City not do well?  Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill?  True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting.  THEY DON’T.  With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time.  And what does running the ball do?  Runs the clock.  Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL.  So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to.  BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today.  Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home,  Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday?  Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2.  And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them.  And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG.  Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed.  Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak,  Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS.  Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS.  Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS.  Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game.  We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good.  The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits.  
Oak +10.5
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky.  And I’ve bet them during that streak.  But today, that streak is likely to end.  Remember the last time these teams played?  I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it.  Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG.  Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy.  Here’s a larger sample size:  Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston.  Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern.  Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
  
Colts +4.5
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3.  How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3?  Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful.  Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late.  On a neutral field, these teams are even?  Wow, I just don’t see it.  I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats.  I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle.  And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!
Seahawks -3