Much like Amy Schneider, my winning streak is over but a lot less rich than she is. But I’m still better looking so I have that going for me..which is nice. The goddamn Packers fucked me royally and I went 1-5 on Saturday but 3-0 on Sunday, bringing my total for the playoffs at 14-9 (61%) and my total for the year to 113-92-1 (55%), very much still in the black. So next time you see me and I ever say, “I’m thinking about betting on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, pour bleach down my urethra and kick me in the taint as hard as possible. Let’s start out with some fun facts about conference championship weekend:
Home teams are 13-3 outright and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons (since 2013). Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons (4-0 previous 2 seasons).
This is shouldn’t be close but let’s show you how and why: Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, all as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when favored by at least four points. Mahomes is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019. Teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore. Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. He is 31-14 ATS when the total is lower. KC has gone over 5/5. Satisfied? Now something nice to say about the Bengals. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and has covered six straight games and four straight road games. And that’s it. Like Hulkamania and your mom’s house, 80k will be there this sunday and I can’t see Joe Burrow keeping this close but why gamble when gambling. Oh yeah, one more stat. Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.
KC to win the Superbowl +125
Chiefs -.5/over 47.5
- We all know San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those six games. SF has won twice this season and we all know what happens, see the 2006 NY Giants against Dallas as a fun and friendly reminder. Yes, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 outright and ATS against Sean McVay. So let’s pile up the data: Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 straight up as a betting underdog. That is the best straight up mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a road underdog. San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week. In the last 35 seasons, teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 2-7 straight up and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS). The last team to win four straight games, all on the road was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye in between since 1961. All that being said, I’m going for the middle. I think the Rams win and cover but I also think they don’t blow them out. This can easily be 24-20, 20-16. Niners are under 6/7 of late and 4/6 under against the Rams. Rams are 5/6 under at home as well. I went light on the Rams and more with the teaser. Also went under and Akers under rushing yds because he’s a fumbling machine of late, there will be a short leash on him, especially if he coughs it up early. He hasn’t topped 55 rushing yds in any playoff game and Michel doesn’t fumble.
- Rams -3, Niners 1h +3, Akers under rushing yds 59.5, Niners +10.5/Chiefs pick em, Rams under 45.5