Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

NFL picks week 11

Ever get punched in the nuts so hard, kicked in the head, and then forced to watched Chris D’Elia’s standup? Yeah, that was me last week with my picks. You want to know how bad I was? 2-10-1 last week. That’s inconceivable. The Ravens and Steelers combined for 5 of those 10 losses. What a complete shit show this was and man, I was sick to my stomach for a few days. However, new week so goddamn, saddle up.

Joe Flacco starting today. Those words I wouldn’t expect to type unless this was when we had a black President in office. Jets defense has allowed 175 points in their last 4 and Dolphins blitz the most at 39% of the time. I don’t think Flacco can move his wheelchair that fast so get ready for a heavy dose of max protect for ol Joey. Jets have the 2nd worst run defense in the league but Dolphins have the NFL’s worst YPC rate at 2.5. If not now, when, for Myles Gaskin? Miami has covered 6 straight against the Jets but 1-5 ATS as a favorite. BUUUT the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS against the Jets and 6-1 SU. Jets 2-8 ATS and SU against Miami of late, 3-9 SU at home. I got this number earlier today at 3.5, now at 4. So here we go, 21-17!

Dolphins -3.5

Houston has been impossible to bet unless you tease them and even that has been a dubious proposition…kind of like dating someone who immediately offers up their pronouns in the first 2 seconds of meeting you. Hard pass, yuck. Texans 2-5 ATS of late and Tennessee 5-1 ATS of late. Tyrod will be back in there as QB for Texans and the last time he started and played a full game, Cooks had over 100 yds. Tenn pass defense is 27th in the NFL and I think Texans keep it close enough. Tennessee isn’t blowing anyone out without Henry and they sure let the Saints fuck up my bet late last week. Key number I got so I pounced on this earlier in the week.

Texans +10.5

Let’s see if Kirk Cousins unvaccinated mouth can kiss Aaron Rodgers supposed immunized lips and suck out his soul like Shang Tsung in Mortal Combat. GB has been a covering machine of late, 9-0 ATS and 4-2 ATS against Minn. Hell, they’re 5-0 ATS on the road. 8/9 Vikings/GB game have been decided by 7 or less. Good news on the Vikings front: raping and pillaging is up! JK, LOL 🙂 Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are back on defense for the Vikings. What’s scary is the Vikings are 1-7 ATS at home this year and 5-11 ATS of late. But they do cover as dogs and this is an absolute do or die game for the Vikes. Also, no Aaron Jones for GB today. Rodgers has a gimpy toe and let’s see if we can win this outright or just lose by a point.

Vikings +1.5

Saints are a dead nuts first half under and dead nuts second half over. I see Payton playing conservatively to open the game as well as doing his best to keep it close and mistake free for Simian. Believe it or not, you can now type those words without loading a weapon to put in your mouth as he’s played “well” of late.

Eagles 1h under 22.5

Eagles best rushing attack in last 3 weeks meets the best rush defense in the NFL. Saints allow league lowest 1.9 yards allowed for zone reads so that takes Philly out of its element. Best number I can find: Saints 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright when they’re an underdog. Yes, I know there’s no Kamara and the line went up to 3 but hey, when you lock in early, you get burned sometimes. Let’s hope for an outright Saints win. Eagles have been beating on bad teams but losing to good ones. They’re 4-2 ATS of late but 5-13 SU in that period. Meaning they’re obviously better as the dog. Also, they’re 0-5 SU at home. Give me an excuse to root against Philly, sure, why the hell not.

Saints +2

All of the reasons above I like the Vikings and Kyler Murray is PROBABLY out for Zona as the line dropped to Sea -3. That screams inside information and glad I locked in this teaser earlier! See, things do work for you on the other side. Kyler Murray quickly becoming the guy you draft in fantasy and then take a solid backup 3-4 rounds later. Speaking of Kyler, did his parents mean to name him Kyler or did they want to name him Kyle but have that overbearing, annoying Long Island accent? Back afta dis. Zona just got embarrassed at home with Colt McCoy and if we get him again, YAHTZEE. Zona 6-2 ATS and 8-2 SU of late. They’re 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against Seattle. Russ Wilson got hosed on calls last week and was shut out for the first time in his career in GB.

Vikings +7.5 and Seattle +7.5

No Kyler makes this game even easier to pick under but some stats nonetheless. Seattle under 6/7 of late, 4/6 under against Seattle, 5/5 vs NFC opponent. Also, the under is 12-2 when Russ starts.

Az under 48

Lions have allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Myles Garrett ALREADY has 13 sacks which is getting close to Strahan’s record so let’s hope he falls short of that distinction. Not that it mattered (except last week when the Lions TIED the Steelers and of course, I had the Steelers teased to 2.5) Goff is out and Boyle is in for the Lions. It’s supposed to pour in Cleveland so I grabbed under 43.5 a couple of days ago. It’s 42.5 at the time of this article so what does that tell you? Det has gone 6/7 under of late and the Browns have the distinct honor of going under 5/5 in week 11. Yeah, who gives a shit about that but hey, it’s information! Browns have gone 4/6 over of late but with a Baker banged up shoulder and impending (supposed) monsoon, except a lot of running and Detroit offensive ineptitude.

Browns under 43.5

4 team ML Parlay: Niners, Titans, Browns, Bucs

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.

NFL Divisional playoffs round

3-2 last weekend, 56-47. Hit the Saints/Titans teaser, the 3 way parlay, and the Bucs/Bills teaser. Lost the Rams under/Bucs under teaser and Bucs under/Titans over teaser.

I’ll be goddamn if I lay 1 red cent on Jared Goff in the playoffs, let alone in cold temperatures.  Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s like betting on Seth Rogen to do a film without having his character being an awkward pothead. Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007. GB 5-1 against the Rams to boot. Packers are 4-2 ATS of late, 6-0 SU of late, and 5-0 SU at home. Packers are 7-2 ATS in January. The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald is banged up. At least Dr. Strange came up with 1 out of over hundred million scenarios where the Avengers beat Thanos. I can’t think of one that doesn’t involve Aaron Rodgers getting injured or thrown in jail for underage women the night before the game. BUT…I want to make this rocking chair game even easier as I want to tease another game so let’s make this…

First leg of the teaser: GB -.5

I gotta admit, I was leaning Buffalo at first…until I started getting into the numbers and your moms’ boxes. Let’s call it as we saw it; Bills looked pretty exposed against the Colts and my asshole was puckered up HARD that last quarter. Ravens stopped the best RB in the NFL last week; what do you think they’re going to do to Devin Singletary? And they stopped Tannehill who is a top 10-15 QB. I think they’re gonna run the ball right up the Bills taint this week. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road. Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league. Baltimore 6-3 ATS against Buffalo, 4-1 SU. Ravens 13-2 SU on the road. Buffalo 6-0 SU at home, 7-0 SU of late, 8-1 ATS. 2 things scare me: if it snows, Lamar has NEVER played a game in the snow. But it’s supposed to be snow showers with winds of 10-20 mph. Which definitely favors the run and takes something away from the Josh Allen passing attack. Would you be shocked the Ravens won? Nope. Is this going to be close? Yep. so let’s make this the focal point of our teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Ravens +8.5

Andy Reid does two things great: remain morbidly obese and crush teams off a bye. BUT KC hasn’t been doing their 1990’s Florida State Bobby Bowden impression and run shit up. Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span. Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season. I think Baker blew his load like TT Boy and Peter North joined forces with a thermonuclear geyser of jazz. By the by,  Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season). Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season. I think the Browns definitely lose this but laying 10 is absurd for all of the above reasons I’ve cited. Browns have been good of late SU, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 SU of late. Chiefs 13-2 at home, 1 of those losses is with their B squad in week 17. So it’s 7 point teaser time and I know some of you may say, “Why not take the Browns to +17, that’s a super sharp play?” It sure is and I won’t eat your lunch for it. But could you see the Chiefs coming out, off the bye, and sick and tired of hearing how they’re barely eeking games out. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs win by 20.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Chiefs -3

History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS. New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017). New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.  Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times. Man, that’s a lot of data backing both teams. So I’m pivoting. Saints/TB have gone over 4/5 in NO, TB/NO over 5/7 of late, and Tampa goes over 15/20 vs NFC. Saints have gone under 7/10 but who have they played? Broncos (the no QB game), Carolina, ATL x2, Philly, Niners, Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs. Not many high powered offenses in there except the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs. But the 7 pt teaser makes this an EASY pick

2nd leg of teaser Bucs over 45

Last bet is a ML parlay as the last 2 weeks I’ve hit those. GB/Saints/Chiefs. I think the Saints are the biggest question mark in that equation but let’s cross your fingers.

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

NFL Week 8 picks ATS

Hey everyone,

I’ve been lazy with the picks on the blog of late as I’m trying to force you to watch everyone’s favorite fantasy football/gambling show, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  Here’s the link to make it easy on you lunkheads: FFJK FB page.  And for the love of god, we need some help.  We’re no longer with Be Terrific so we’re going to have to start funding everything out of our own pockets.  So if you’d be so kind to take us up on our services such as we’ll do your daily fantasy lineup for you or give you access to my top plays of the week, that would help out with the expenses.  For love of God, we have made you a TON of free money.  You’d be doing us a solid; here’s the link to do so: FFJJ Patreon

ATL is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS.  1-4 ATS vs NFC and 3-7 SU in October.  Matt Ryan with limited practice all week after leaving the game early against an angry Seattle team who got curb stomped.  Sea 7-1 ATS on the road, 11-4 SU of late.  Cincy 1-4-1 vs the Rams, 0-9 SU on the road.  Rams 9-3 ATS and stayed in Georgia holding a minicamp and not going back west to have to fly over to London.

Sea in a teaser with the Rams.  Sea to -1 and Rams to -6

GB 2-6 SU and ATS against KC.  2-4 SU in KC.   Fun fact, Rodgers .500 ATS on the road.  Andy Reid now has an 3 extra prep days.  Matt Moore 20-10 ATS as a starter.  KC 12-5 SU at home and 5-2 SU of late.  KC will run the ball at the awful GB run defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers’s hands.

KC +3.5

Explain to me how a backup QB is laying TWO TDs and I don’t care it’s at home.  Miami 2-7 ATS of late, 0-9 SU of late.  But they’re 4-2 ATS against Pitt, 1-4 SU in Pitt.  Wayyyy too many points for Mason Rudolph who just came back from a Mortal Kombat fatality.  Dolphins almost upset the Bills last week; they’re not lying down at all.  Pitt has yet to score 27.  Home teams 18-21-2 home teams off a bye  Fitzpatrick gets them fired up to cover.

Dolphins +14.5