Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

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3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

NFL Week 4 picks ATS

4-1 last week. Detroit 1h, winner. Buffalo, winner. Pats and Cincy over teaser, winner. I took Dallas/TB teaser after the Giants looked as useless and lost as Chris Matthews did at the debate the other night. 11-4 on the year and let’s continue the good vibes.

The Bills got a monster gift from the refs after blowing a 20 point lead late. I guess McDermott is doing his best Atlanta Falcons impression but thankfully didn’t commit to the bit. Now the Bills are in Vegas where apparently, they’re giving Groupons to the likes of Tekashi 69 fans to stay at high end hotels. It truly has become a garbage people fly trap. Now, the Raiders are without 2 WRs, their #1 draft pick CB, banged up Jacobs. The all time stats don’t back up this play but the Bills are not banged up but they’re playing a banged up team. Raiders 0-5-1 vs AFC east and 3-8 ATS in October. Oakland beat the Panthers and Saints who aren’t excacly setting the world on fire. Bills laying less than a TD on the road is a gift so might as well grab them before the luxury tax hits you.

Bills -3

This has been beaten over the head by all the sharps but it bears repeating. Seattle’s pass rush and pass defense is one big prolapsed anus. Now they’re making the longest flight possible and playing in Florida heat after going to the wire against Dallas (ahem, a winner last week). Fitzpatrick is the king of backdoors next to Lieutenant Proctor and Captain Harris at the Blue Oyster. Also, 3 extra days to rest and plan after they smoked the Jags. Miami 4-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU home vs Seattle, and 4-2 in October. Seattle 1-6 ATS against Miami. Both teams are putting up massive points: Seattle has gone over 4/5, 12/16 vs AFC, and 7/8 vs AFC east. Miami has gone over 7/10, 5/5 at home, 4/6 vs NFC west. So why the hell not make things easier on us, especially with the over

Teasing Miami +12 and over 48

Drew Brees is averaging the 5 yds per pass attempt. Why? Because no Michael Thomas or Drew Brees doesn’t have the arm strength? Maybe. But The Saints are slow starters AND have 6 key starters OUT. Thomas, Cook, BOTH STARTING CBs, a guard and DE. I think the Lions got the monkey off their back with the win and now at home. Detroit catching 3 in the first half and I think they do so with ease again this week.

Detroit +3 1H

Cincinnati tying the Eagles was just dandy, watching that insanely overrated team tie the Bengals. 5 quarters played takes a toll and now they get the Jags who also have 3 extra days to prep. I say the Bengals put up a better show than their fellow city counterparts, the Reds, but I don’t think they win or even cover. Some stats, why not? Jags 4-2 ATS of late, 11-5 SU against Cincy, 4-1 ATS against AFC and 9-0-1 against AFC north. Cincy 2-17-1 SU of late and 2-7 SU at home, 3-6 ATS against AFC south, and 1-6 in October. Bengals shouldn’t be giving anyone points. Line is now Cincy -2.5 so you could consider taking them now but

I got the Jags +3

Injuries are afoot in TB. Godwin and Fournette out, Scotty Miller is also in danger of missing the game. Mike Williams and Bryan Bulaga are out for the Chargers. Chargers D and Tampa D both playing well; Chargers haven’t allowed more than 21 points all year and TB hasn’t allowed more than 17 in the last 2 weeks. Chargers 6-3 ATS against TB, 5-1 SU against TB. TB SU 1-9 in October. TB under 4/6, The under is also in play; Chargers have hit the under in 4/5, 4/5 against NFC, I think the Chargers keep it close enough to cover but again, let’s even help ourselves out even more.

Teasing Chargers +13 and under 49

Kansas City and the Pats has been postponed to hopefully Tuesday. I’m too tired to bother with a Cover joke for Cam. Lucky for me, I bet it Friday night as part of a teaser, down to 1 along with GB-1. Last line I saw, KC is now -11.5, definitely teaser territory as well as it gets you under 7. Pats are 2-7 SU in KC, 3-6 ATS. KC 11-1 ATS, 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home. And now no Cam? KC boat races the shit out them.

Falcons are 4-2 ATS against GB and 5-0 ATS on road, 6-1 ATS in GB. Yeah but still. Falcons have been more demoralized than a freshman after her first fraternity gang bang in their last 2 games; blowing 20 its leads twice in 2 weeks. GB 4-1 ATS, 9-1 SU, 7-0 SU at home. GB also 5-1 SU in october and 4-1 ATS in week 4. Give me the team that’s just steamrolling the piss out of everyone at home vs the team who’s been cunt punted the last 2 weeks. And I’m only laying 1? Please.

KC -1 and GB in a teaser

NFL Week 3 ATS picks 9/27/20

Proper Vegas attire in 2020

No article last week as I was in Vegas so that’s why you should be following me on social media and you would’ve seen me go 3-1 last week. I had Detroit over, KC/Pitt teaser, AZ/Buffalo teaser, and the Jets under. The goddamn Jets broke us when Darnold rolls out of a sack and throws a TD with less than a minute left in the game. 3-1 last week, 3-2 week 1 which puts me at a robust 6-3 for the year, 66% ATS.

I apologize for the lack of numbers with these handicaps as I lost all my screenshots from oddshark when I had to fix my work iPad. Odds shark is censored in Jersey because they advertise gambling sites not based in Jersey. You pinko commie bastards. So I’m going on memory why I took these games without my usual stats. I know I’ll sound like my buddy Jeff Paul who makes his weekly pick on some horseshit logic but I promise, this won’t happen again.

The Lions stink. Blowing 2 first half leads turned into 2 losses and I have these cunts as an over for the year. Now they’re in AZ who is hot as a pistol. But I think Patricia knows his ass is on the line. And as I said, Detroit has come out firing in both first halves of their games. So I think Detroit grabs an early lead or at WORST, is hanging tough at the end of the half. And Stafford has Golliday back this week. So why not take…

Detroit +3.5 FIRST HALF. That extra hook helps but I truly think Detroit is up at halftime.

San Francisco 49ers defensive line has TWO STARTERS OUT. Cluster injuries on the line plus no Sherman and their starting CB. Oh yeah, Garoppolo, Kittle, and Mostert are also OUT. They’re throwing more shit out there on defense than the sidewalks of San Fran. I know my Giants stink this year but goddamnit, now is the time for a win. They’re home and almost beat the Bears last week if it weren’t for a horseshit offensive PI call. Yes, I know Barkley and Sheppard are out. If the Giants can’t beat the Niners when they’re THAT beat up, there’s a problem. But remember, this is the Giants and as Pesci said in Goodfellas, they can fuck up a cup of coffee.

So let’s tease them up to +9.5 and to find someone else to tease…

Dallas is in Seattle and as good as Seattle looks on offense, they look putrid on defense. They’re among the worst in pass rush and pass defense. Dallas and Seattle off emotional wins so that cancels out. No 12th man to screw with Dak getting the yips. I’m not betting against Russ but I’m betting on Dallas NOT getting blown out. They’ll lose but not by double digits and again, that Seattle pass D is more atrocious the stench that came from the CHAZ Zone in Seattle.

Dallas +11 is the second leg of the teaser.

Bellichick off the bye; blah, blah, blah is something like 68% ATS. Playing the Raiders at home, 1pm, after playing Monday night. Jacobs banged up a bit and Ruggs is out. I know that the center for the Pats is out which hurts but I think the Pats do enough to win. Yes, the line is -6.5 but not for me because I…

Teased the Pats down to -.5. Why leave the backdoor open?

Who to tease with now? Why not go with Backdoor Burrow in Philly? I think Cincy can cover that but I wouldn’t be surprised that Philly puts it together and blows them out. But what I do see happening today are points. Burrow can easily air it out against a shitty Philly secondary and if Carson Wentz stops throwing the ball to the other team, they can score as well. I know Cincy has the WORST ranked run defense and Philly will be inclined to expose them there.

But when I can take the over down to 41.5, I’ll do that easily thinking both teams can put up 21 apiece.

Rams smoked Philly last week (well done. Nothing sending those assholes down the drain and calling for Wentz’s head) and flew home. Why fly back? Stay east! Well, now they have to come back and play a white hot Buffalo. Here’s a stat: Buffalo has outscored their opponents in the first halves of their games something like 52-17. Again, lost my screenshots. They’re playing well at home and the Rams are without Akers, their RB. You’re laying less than a FG, the line is now 1.5. I got it at -2.5 last night so sharp money must have poured in on the Rams this morning. Not as confident on this pick now but we’ll see.

Buffalo -2.5

Last pick of the week: I’m FLOORED that Green Bay and KC are getting 3 or more on the road in empty stadiums. Those are some sexy numbers but here’s what sexier, teaser time again. Show me a world that GB (admittedly, I was wrong about Rodgers stinking this year, he’s top 5) and KC lose, let alone by more than a TD.

Teasing GB to +9 and KC +9.5

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

Super Bowl bets and props!

Tis everyone’s favorite time of year for betting and also the saddest as it’s the end of football.

Not burying the lead so let’s get past the date and head right to the sex in the car at a Chili’s parking lot.

Chiefs -1

Rule 1 when handicapping.  Who has the better QB and head coach?  Chiefs have both.  Here’s another X factor: Sometimes it’s just someone’s time.  Unfortunately, it was just Philly’s time 2 years ago.  Andy Reid has been the bridesmaid a ton of times and never the bride.  I think this is his time.  Can you imagine that feast he’s going to indulge in after a SB win?  He’s going to give Kobayashi and Rebel Wilson a real run for their money.  We all know the Chiefs weakness is their running game BUT in the past few weeks in the playoffs, they’ve shored up their D.  4.3 YPC allowed by KC D which is above average in the NFL.  Derrick Henry didn’t have a rush above 13 yds when they played them 2 weeks ago.  To be fair, that was the 3rd straight week of Henry getting over 30 carries in a game.  He lit up the first half against the Chiefs but was silent for the next 3 quarters.  Surprisingly of late, the Chiefs D has allowed 18 PPG and the Niners allowed 24 PPG.  Niners have also allowed 26.5 PPG in 9 games, ranking them 24th.

We all know Reid after the bye is numero uno.  You know what else is numero uno?  Andy Reid ATS 19-9 ATS and 23-5 SU after the bye.  KC 8-0 SU as well as ATS in a row and of those 8 in a row, they won by at least 7 ppg.  Larger sample size?   14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS.  Mahomes 22-11-2 ATS and 17-11-2 ATS as a favorite.  We all know the Niners play a zone D and how does Maholmes fare against it?  91 QBR…BEST in the NFL.  Super Bowl favorites are 33-19 SU.  Dogs have been ruling of late, 13-5 ATS.  However, since this is a 1 point game, go with the SU numbers.  The SU winner of the SB is 44-6-3 ATS and the underdog has NEVER covered a spread with a line <6.  Higher playoffs seed is 2-13-2 ATS.  Team with the better record of late is 9/10 in the Superbowl.  Niners had 13 wins, Chiefs had 12 wins.  Niners are 3-15 ATS after 2 consecutive ATS wins.

Bottom line is this.  If the Chiefs O Line holds up against a solid Niners pass rush, the Niners are dead.  If he gets out of the pocket, he’s taking off or catching Hill or Hardman on a busted coverage play.  Niners MUST run this ball and take time off the clock to win this game.  I don’t think if they’re down 10 or more that they can come back with Garappolo.  And we know the Chiefs can rally from down a bushel of points.  This isn’t an easy game to call but I’m on the Chiefs for all the reasons and stats above.

Prop bets? Got em.

Tails…never fails.  Just been lucky with it the last several years.

Under 2.5 players that attempt a pass.  I just don’t see either teams’ punters getting cute; especially when Colquitt had issues successfully punting.

Kittle Over 75.5 receiving yds.  Was quiet last week against GB only because they could run the ball down their throats better than Paris Hilton took it down her throat in Predator night vision.

Maholmes over 36.5 rushing yds.  Ran for over 50 in the last 2 games and now faces a zone defense?  Heidy-ho!

I never take props like these but I heard it was in and Vegas is steaming (everyone jumping on it) but PURPLE is the color of the Gatorade in honor of Kobe Bryant.  It went from +600 to -160 so yeah, why not?

More scoring in 2nd half than the 1st half -145

3rd quarter more scoring than 1st quarter. -150

Why?  And why the heavy juice? Chiefs are notoriously slow starters.  Halftime is obviously longer than usual plus teams love to take the governor off and let loose.  Kind of like a bunch of dudes at the Jim McGreevey rest stop, heigh ho!

Good luck and let’s end this season with even more FREEEEEE MONEY!

NFL Week 8 picks ATS

Hey everyone,

I’ve been lazy with the picks on the blog of late as I’m trying to force you to watch everyone’s favorite fantasy football/gambling show, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  Here’s the link to make it easy on you lunkheads: FFJK FB page.  And for the love of god, we need some help.  We’re no longer with Be Terrific so we’re going to have to start funding everything out of our own pockets.  So if you’d be so kind to take us up on our services such as we’ll do your daily fantasy lineup for you or give you access to my top plays of the week, that would help out with the expenses.  For love of God, we have made you a TON of free money.  You’d be doing us a solid; here’s the link to do so: FFJJ Patreon

ATL is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS.  1-4 ATS vs NFC and 3-7 SU in October.  Matt Ryan with limited practice all week after leaving the game early against an angry Seattle team who got curb stomped.  Sea 7-1 ATS on the road, 11-4 SU of late.  Cincy 1-4-1 vs the Rams, 0-9 SU on the road.  Rams 9-3 ATS and stayed in Georgia holding a minicamp and not going back west to have to fly over to London.

Sea in a teaser with the Rams.  Sea to -1 and Rams to -6

GB 2-6 SU and ATS against KC.  2-4 SU in KC.   Fun fact, Rodgers .500 ATS on the road.  Andy Reid now has an 3 extra prep days.  Matt Moore 20-10 ATS as a starter.  KC 12-5 SU at home and 5-2 SU of late.  KC will run the ball at the awful GB run defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers’s hands.

KC +3.5

Explain to me how a backup QB is laying TWO TDs and I don’t care it’s at home.  Miami 2-7 ATS of late, 0-9 SU of late.  But they’re 4-2 ATS against Pitt, 1-4 SU in Pitt.  Wayyyy too many points for Mason Rudolph who just came back from a Mortal Kombat fatality.  Dolphins almost upset the Bills last week; they’re not lying down at all.  Pitt has yet to score 27.  Home teams 18-21-2 home teams off a bye  Fitzpatrick gets them fired up to cover.

Dolphins +14.5

 

 

NFL Championship Weekend ATS picks

gettyimages-166653561-1547831745-640x425

This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.

law of av·er·ag·es

noun  

  1. the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

 

Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155 

mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways.  LOA turns on the 

sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no 

such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.  

Thanks for the warning, officer.”  And what happens?  You pull away slowly, staying 

within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away.  And what do we all

do then?  Fucking floor it.  And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it.  2 more weeks to 

print money, let’s get it.

 

2-2 last week.  Dallas over and KC under both came home.  Unfortunately, both horseface

Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game.  Did you see him on 4th and goal with

:06 left?  Didn’t get the line set and the game was over.  He took his sweet ass time with a

chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year.  He gets a

pass for being rock solid all year long.  Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out

the garbage from Philly.  71/117 on the year,  61% for the year.  Still rocking and rollin’,

baby.  

 

Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year.  I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are

winning the Superbowl.  They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last

week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week.  But you know what wasn’t off?  That

defense.  The Saints can run and stop the run.  Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.  

Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU.  The problem for the Rams is

Goff.  He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road.  The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,

Goff didn’t.  Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.  

They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas.  Goff last 3 vs playoff

teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs.  Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28

times and the ball was run 48 times.  Wow.  You know the Saints in the last 8 games have

the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense?  Lastly, in the last 8 games, the

Saints are giving up  14 ppg.  Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob

Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense.   I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees 

has one more Superbowl run left in him.  And we’re going to ensure it happens by…

 

Teasing the Saints to +3

 

The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time.  I’m sure you’ve seen the 

meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady.  Much like Goff last week, 

Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did.  Yes, he dumped off to James White a 

ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield.  The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and 

didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws.  The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but

4-2 ATS in KC.  However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC.  The KC defense

got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week.  The only

thing that  scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.  

Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument.  Although the Chiefs D is

suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away.  Eric Berry is questionable and may come

back on defense.  If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can

get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back.  And we all know during conference

championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games.  No teams

has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs.  More bad news for the

Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps.  When Josh Gordon

was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.  

Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA.  That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without

Gordon.  If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble.  Last stat: the

Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points

which is 9 PPG.  Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year.  And the wins they

had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where

the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line.  I know betting against the Pats is

usually not a profitable adventure.  But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady

is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more

comfortable using racial slurs. 

 

Second half of teaser Chiefs +3

 

Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14.  It’s not going to be as cold as

everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees.  I think that there will

be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the

dump off passes to White.  Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or

less.  So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…

Under 54.5

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

scrooge_mcduck_

My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.”  Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself.  Words to live by.  My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.”  Brilliant.  You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before?  Taking selfies.  Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail.  WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT!  Hashtag livin that balla life.”  Yuck.  Act like you’ve been there before.  That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life.  Which is sad.  You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time?  The first step is playing the part.  Act like you’ve been there before.

Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice.  Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before.  Even though I haven’t.  Last year, I was 56%,  Pretty good.    How did I do last week?  Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season.  So let’s keep cashing tickets.  And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it.  We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!

Lock of the week:

If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land.  Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash.  Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.”  And that’s what we going to do again this week.  Because I love the Saints.  And I love them home AND off a bye.  Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game.  3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones.  The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly.  Yeah, I know what you’re going to say.  The Saints offense has slowed down the last month.  You’re right, it did.  BUT how many of those games were at home?  Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees.  What did they score for those 3 home games?  48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt.  Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago.  Watch them make a run like last year.”  Yeah, they also had home field last year.  Yep, now give me the road warrior argument.  You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12.  So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears.  Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears?  Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary.  Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints?  At home?  After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month?  I don’t.  BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home.  Remember what I said about don’t be a hero?  Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor.  9 and 51.5 are a lot.  So what?  So let’s dance!

I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week.  I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them.  They’re 10-1 since week 6.  Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out.  His red zone stats, stupid.  32 TDs, 1 INT.  He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more.  Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski?  Wow.  Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards.  Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run?  Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6.  Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6.  Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC.  KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW.  I know, a dome team in the snow.  Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good.  KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy.  I love the Colts, they can even win outright.  And I love them a lot more when I…

Tease the Colts to +11.  I also took the under 56.5.  

The cockroaches are out.  That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA.  The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up.  Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers.  The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number.  4-7-2 overall ATS of late.  And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health?  If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word.  But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up.  Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team.  Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round.  God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities.  Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams.  Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late.  They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models.  Running=controlling the clock.  Dallas is going to keep this close.  One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016.  Impressive, as is getting 7.  But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…

The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.  

 

 

NFL picks Wildcard weekend ATS 2018

Bullying is frowned upon in today’s society.  But I’m a bully, that’s right, a bully.  I’ve bullied the shit out of my bookie for this season and ESPECIALLY in the month of December.  I went 21-5 in December, are you fucking kidding me?  81% is just out of this world.  I’m going to humblebrag these fun facts:  I’ve paid for a new mattress with all of this free money.  I paid for all my Christmas gifts with all of that free money.  I paid for a trip to the Caymans with all of this free money.  And I all ask from you, 9 loyal readers, is watch the latest and greatest season of Comics Watching Comics, Season 7, only on Amazon Video.  You’re getting the all-star panel, the people YOU voted to see on the All-Star edition.  So here it is and my promise to you, it will not disappoint.  Onto the picks.

Yes, the playoffs are a completely different animal.  Always try and find that hot team with karma in their pocket and ride them to the end.  This year, I think it’s the Saints.  Who out of the AFC?  Maybe the Colts, maybe the Chiefs.  But not the Texans.  Why?  Because the Texans may have one of the best pass rushes out there.  However, the Colts have the #1 ranked offensive line, only allowing 16 sacks in 16 games.  I think my boy Eli Manning would sell his children on the dark web or to Apple to make iPhones for that kind of protection.  The Colts have made me an absolute windfall of cash this season.  Is this a loyalty pick?  No.  Because even though they played Sunday night and they’re the first game on Saturday,  I think Andrew Luck can be the QB to possibly carry his team on his shoulders to the end.  Colts are 9-1 SU of late, 6-3 ATS on the road.  Colts are 5-0-1 in Houston and 17-7 SU vs Houston.  A more telling number: Colts were 5-2 ATS vs teams over .500.  Texans were 3-6 ATS vs teams over .500.  The line is 1.5 and if you’re taking the dog, you might as well take the money line as there is little value taking the 1.5.  

Hence why I grabbed the Colts on the ML +110.

Teasers have been working well for me this year, my first loss with a teaser was last week when GB failed to show up against Detroit.  Seattle is a team that you don’t want to face as Russell Wilson has become a comeback kid and no lead is safe enough.  Yes, Dallas has been good on defense but that defense gave up over 30 points last week to the Giants in a completely meaningless game.  No, they didn’t sit any of their regulars except Zeke.  Last I checked, Jason Garrett is not one to be trusted in the playoffs.  And along with other fans of NFC East teams, I’d like to thank Garrett for doing well this season as now Jerry is going to HAVE to give Garrett a new deal.  His piss poor clock management and abusing of timeouts are always welcome.  Seattle is one of the best running teams and Dallas is ok at stopping the run.  Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 6-1 SU as well.  Seattle 4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 SU on the road.  Seattle 4-1 SU playing Dallas.  Seattle has went over 7/8.  I think this stays close so let’s take Seattle and tease them up to +7.  Cause if Seattle is down, they can EASILY backdoor a cover with a TD in your pocket.  But Seattle can also put up points through the air.  Doug Baldwin gives them the NFL’s best explosive pass rate when he’s on the field (12% vs 6% when he’s not).  This is also a low total, 43.5.  This game can EASILY be 24-21 and hit the over.

First part of teaser: Seattle from +1 to +7 and separately the over, 43.5

Chargers just played Baltimore 2 weeks ago (hit that under, thank you).  So now they have real time experience against Lamar Jackson.  SD stinks at home but have only 1 loss on the road this year.  5-0 SU and ATS on the road, pretty damn good.  They’re also 5–0 against teams that are in the bottom 10 of pass defenses.  The Browns just showed everyone how to exploit the Ravens defense. Chargers are 4-2 ATS in Baltimore.  Baltimore is good at home, 4-1 ATS.  And we know Phil Rivers has yet to win a big game in the playoffs.  So why not stack my odds with the second half of my teaser?  No way the Ravens win by more than a TD.

Chargers +8.5.