Week 18 NFL picks ATS, let’s get that FREEEE MONEY!

Just like your mom shaking her ass at a bachelor party, the money keeps rolling in. 7-2 last week which brings my total to 93-79-1, 54% for the year. Hot damn, we’re humming. Bad news is I took Chiefs 1h team total over 14 and Chiefs 1h -6 last night. I’d like to think after scoring a TD, the last thing you want to do his hold the opponent to 3 and out and then get a roughing the kicker penalty. Of course, that leads to them driving for an equalizing TD. And of course in full transparency, I always suck in the final week of the season so let’s put the voodoo hex on that trend.

Giants are losers of 5 straight, losing by 18.4 ppg. They’re AVERAGING 10.6 ppg on offense in the last 5, 15.7 ppg for the year which is 31st. Taylor Heinecke is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS as a favorite. Giants 0-5 ATS since Jones got hurt and Frohm back in there? I know the Giants covered (and should’ve won but hey, they’re the Giants) the first meeting but that’s when Jones was in and they gave a modicum of a fuck. I see zero fight from them.

Skins teased down to 0 and Skins teased to +.5 in another teaser with TB -2.5. Also, Giants team total under (yep, again) 16

You may accuse me of being frivolous since I just won THREE fantasy football titles last weekend (driving that point home) and decided to get all loose goosey with my money. What you’re about to see may shock you: (insert my penis inside Emily Ratajowski’s mouth photoshopped picture) We all know that Jags are awful: Jags defense 11th in YPG and 2nd in PPGA. Jags are 1-0 ATS and SU as a 14 point dog plus this year. Jags 0-7 ATS of late but against the Colts, wow. 11-1-1 ATS with 4 straight covers. I teased this baby up to an insane amount so let’s see if Trevor “how do I fit my nose in this helmet” Lawrence can fuck up a 21 point spread.

2nd half of teaser Jags +21.5

I should’ve laid the house on the Steelers last week +3.5, that was an easy win. Ben’s final game at home and although not razzle dazzling with his efforts, cruised to an easy win. And I was also set to take the Ravens this week because how many hard luck losses can you accrue this season? Lamar out again and maybe Huntley pulls this out for the W. Ravens dead last in YPP allowed and the Ravens are also allowing league high 6.5 yards after the catch. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS of late but 1-5 SU recently. Pitt is 7-3 SU against Bal but 1-5 SU on the road. Here’s what I’m hoping for: Baltimore to win (I have Pitt under 8.5 wins this year and that would clinch it) and Pitt to cover. But why not give me more cushion as these AFC Central division games USUALLY fall within a FG.

Teased Pitt to +10 and Alabama to +9. Right, I know nothing about college football but it just seems insane to me that Bama is getting points in a national championship game.

Here’s another “let’s hope this is a tight division game.” I have Saints under 9 and Saints no playoffs tickets so an outright loss would be just dandy. Saints are 6-2 ATS against the Falcons and 5-1 ATS against them. But they’re averaging 13.8 ppg in the last 4 and Taysom Hill 4-1 ATS on the road, Falcons are 0-6 ATS at home . Falcons were giving Buffalo until dumbass Matt Ryan started taunting them before he got into the end zone. I think the Falcons can win but for sure, keep it close. Also Saints have gone under 6/6 of late, ATL 7/8, and 5/6 under heads up.

ATL +10.5 and under 45.5 in a teaser

Bears haven’t played anyone worth a shit and now the Red Rocket comes to Minnesota. Bears are 3-8 ATS of late but 6-3 ATS and 5-2 SU against Minn. Vikings 2-8 ATS this year as home favorite but 34-18-1 ATS after a loss under Zimmer. Looks like Zimmer is about to get fired so they may give a spirited effort. The line opened at 2.5, went as high as 5.5, now is back to 4. I grabbed it at -4 and teased it to +.5 when it was at 5.5 I think the Vikings can win by a TD today.

Minn -4 and Minn +.5 as part 1 of a teaser with Raiders over.

I think the line is too high with Miami and here’s why: Dolphins are 4-1 ATS at home, 5-0 SU of late. Oh yeah, Pats are 2-4 SU against Miami and 2-6 ATS in Miami. Brian Flores is 14-8 ATS as a single digit dog. Miami 5-3 SU against the Pats and was an underdog in all but one of those games. Miami got fingerpopped like a gymnast by Larry Nasser last week but hell, they’re still 6-2 ATS of late. Miami 7/9 under of late and 4/5 under vs NE.

Dolphins +12.5 and under 46

Could you imagine if the Colts lost today and then the Chargers could tie with the Raiders and both make the playoffs? That would royally fuck 2 of my bets up but here we go. Chargers have gone over 6/7 of late but under 7/10 against the Raiders. Raiders have gone 5/7 but shit, I think points can be scored, especially when you tease! Herbert 1-3 ATS as a road favorite but the home team (Vegas) in final game is 1-4 ATS since 2015. Raiders 1-5 ATS at home playing against the Chargers but 4-2 SU of late. Raiders with a HUGE win against the Colts last week and if they win, they’re in. And maybe if the Raiders won, Mark Davis can treat himself to a real haircut instead of that bad bowl job that that creepy ass Christian family who mistreated their 10 kids had.

Vegas +3 and Vegas over 42 teased with Pitt +10. Also, Vikings +.5 and Vegas over 43 in another teaser with the Vikings.

Aaron Rodgers says he wants to play to keep some momentum before heading into the bye. That’s enough to tempt me to take him for a quarter but not the 1h as they yank him by q2. I’m tempted to grab Det in the second half but let’s see.

GB 1Q -1

Good luck and let’s get that FREEEEE MONEY!

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NFL picks week 17 ATS

FINALLY, we’re back on that streak that we talked about, 4 winning weeks in a row! 5-2 last week and 86-77-1 for a 53% win percentage for this year. Week 17 has always been the bane of my existence but not this year as week 18 is the new week 17. Thankfully, one more week before I have that bed shitting week, let’s windmill those dicks while we’re in line at the DMV. And while you’re at it, wish me luck in my 3 fantasy leagues that I reached the finals. Out of 4 leagues, I’ll gladly take 3 paydays!

Show me an iota of respect for the NY Giants offense and I’ll show you someone who is always diplomatic and can’t ever value their opinion. Giants under has hit 7/9 of late and why trust Mike Glennon on the road? They BARELY scored 10 points against Philly and now they’re in Chicago. I just can’t see them putting up more than 2 TDS against Akeem Nicks and the rest of the Bears D.

Giants team under 16 points

This is going to be a 2 prong win if this hits. I have a Titans to win division ticket and this is the home run spot as they get 10 days off and play the Dolphins who are on a short week. Miami has played a slew of shitty QBs of late and not saying Tannehill is great but he’s better than the Ian Book and Zack Wilsons of the world. Titans 2-4 ATS of late but 8-3 SU of late. They’re 6-1 SU at home and they have a chance to lock up division should the Colts lose against the Raiders, especially with Went battling Covid. The Dolphins are indeed on fire of late: 6-1 ATS, 7-0 SU, and 11-5 SU against Tenn. I think Tenn wins and covers and I’m on the right side of the line.

Titans -3

Baltimore Ravens are as bad a mess as their shitty accent. Seriously, that accent is a stone’s throw from Philly and every time I hear it, I think someone from a flea market is trying to sell me samurai swords. I don’t know who’s playing QB tomorrow but a hobbled Lamar doesn’t scare me. Huntley is decent and I’d love to play the over. But I can’t trust the Ravens to put up their share of points but you know what I can trust besides your mom rubbing her slit on my knee after 3 Long Island Ice teas? The Baltimore secondary getting abused like a newsgirl on day 1 working for Roger Ailes. We say the Bengals pile on the Ravens so why can’t the Rams? Rams have gone over 4/5 on the road and for rooting interests, I have Stafford in 2 leagues in the finals. Can they score more than 26 points? I sure as shit think so. Ravens are 28th for defense in DVOA and dead last week since week 10. Also, 29 ppg allowed in the last 4 for the ravens D.

Rams team over 26 points

Bengals beat up the Ravens and they need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt, 4-2 ATS and SU of late. The Chiefs are playing like the team we thought they were, 6-0 ATS and 8-0 SU of late, so where does this leave us? Right here: Chiefs are 0-5 SU in Cincy. Can the Cincy o-line contain that pass rush? I hope and think that they can.

Bengals +5.5

Same game, different aspect.

Cincy team total over 23.5 points

Cincy has gone over 4/5 at home and 6/9 of late. Bengals are 27th in points allowed at home but 7th in points scored. Chiefs are 4/6 over of late as well, 4th in total points. Points will be had so let’s simplify shit and make this a teaser:

First half of teaser: Chiefs over 45

Sometimes I hesitate and it bites me in the ass, sometimes I get lucky. Yesterday, I got bitten in the ass as I delayed putting in the Vikings under and wouldn’t you know it, Captain Anti-Vax is out with Covid. So of course, the line drops and I’m caught holding the bag. Usually, I would never bet an under involving Green Bay or Vikings but obviously with Cousins out, this game won’t be putting up the points we thought. No Adam Thielen as well so this helps our cause. Also, this is the Sunday night game where it’s going to be 10 degrees in GB, not exactly inviting high scores. Again, all the trends point over but I’m betting on a backup screwing up as well as frigid GB.

Second half of teaser: Vikings under 48

Baker Mayfield looked sloppier than the prom queen during her 20th high school reunion. They get another day of rest and go to Pittsburgh who got prison raped and filleted last week against the Chiefs. Browns of late are 2-4 ATS and SU. Browns are 1-4 ATS in Pittsburgh, 1-17 SU in Pitt. Steelers 5-0-1 SU of late at home sure as hell doesn’t hurt. And I’m sure we’re going to hear this till our taints hurt but you may have heard this is Rothliesberger’s last home game. Call me a sentimental dips hit but I think that the combination of his last game, Pitt coming off a straight up cunt punting, and getting in at the right number, this is a winning play.

Pitt +3.5

Remember how I said how I don’t act early enough some times and how it bites me or I’ve gotten lucky? Well in this game, I acted early and I’m wise to have done so. Locked in the Texans +13 Tuesday night and the next day, Jimmy G is announced that he has a thumb with 2 fractures. The Texans D surprisingly quasi held down the Chargers last week and they’re 15th against the pass, 18th in DVOA. San Fran pass defense is 23rd against the pass and Mills has been airing it out pretty well. Trey Lantz will probably start and no better time to bet against a rookie QB who hasn’t earned a start vs a team who’s playing hard and catching almost 2 touchdowns. And Houston has already won 2 outright as a double digit dog. Lastly, Niners are 4-11 SU at home, yuck.

Houston +13

I know I said this last week but shit, I can’t see any of these teams losing outright this week:

TB/Bills/Pats/GB ml parlay

NFL picks ATS week 11 /28/21 sports betting

5-6 last week as the Giants ruined my chances to go over .500 for the week for the first time in a LONG time. Goddamnit, that puts me at 55-61-1 this year which includes the Dallas under on Thanksgiving I took. Hope you degenerates stayed away from Black Friday store openings at 4am cause if you didn’t, you should be forced to play in the Squid Games. This week, THREE games that are absolutely going to make you say, “who gives a shit!”

What’s worse, watching the Jets or getting finger popped by your uncle watching the Jets lose again? Well, get ready for another Jets loss against a Houston defense that shut down the Titans. The Jets lost Michael Carter for a few weeks and the stats sure don’t inspire confidence: 1-5 ATS of late, 0-6 ATS on the road. Their defense is also dead LAST in DVOA while Houston is slightly above average.

Houston -2.5

The only thing watching someone drive into and kill people in a Christmas parade was watching the Falcons last week against the Patriots. I can’t believe I’m putting hard earned money on the Falcons again but here we are. Jags give up 12 most yards allowed and 29th in defense efficiency. Matt Ryan is going to do his best Urban Meyer impression and bury in boner in the Jags behind this week. Trevor Lawrence has allowed 169 yds and .2 TDs a game for the last 3 games. 10 days off to prep and stew against the dogshit Jags is enough for Matt “Waterhead” Ryan to get the win. Falcons 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU against Jags of late. Jags are 2-18 SU of late, 2-11 SU at home. Hold your nose like I do when your mom drops her panties and bet the Falcons.

Falcons -1

Jaguars have scored 23 ONCE and that was in London. They haven’t score more than 20 in over a month and scored 20 or more 3 times this year.

Jaguars team total under 23

Can you imagine (I’ve been there for the good and bad) if you had the Chargers and you blew that 17 pt lead in the 4th quarter and had them -4.5? Oh gambling, you’re the best and the worst. Good news is Pitt is getting everyone back on defense: Fitzpatrick and most imporantly, TJ Watt, are back on defense. I jumped in a little late and got it at +3.5 and there’s still value left as this is THE last stand for Pitt. You’re getting more than a FG in a divisional game, grab it while you can. Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS (including when Ben was out) but 4-1-1 SU of late and 4-1 ATS on the road. 11-2 SU against Cincy. Bengals 1-4 ATS at home, 1-7 SU home against Pitt and 3-6 ATS as the favorite. Good enough stats for you?

Steelers +3.5

I want to go play Far Cry 6 so here’s a quick handicap. Vikings are 4-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU, and 6-3 SU against SF. Niners are worse at home than their policing policies, 1-8 SU at home. Vikings putting up 30.6 ppg of late and Cousins hasn’t thrown a pick in 6 games with 21 TDs. Oh yeah, Kyle Shanahan is 3-16-2 as a home favorite. Game, set, match.

Vikings +3

I’m watching The Last Dragon right now and this film is so fucking awful. It’s beyond 80’s schlock and impossible to defend as a guilty pleasure. That’s just a quick tangent as we get to the first teaser. Colts are AVERAGING 31 PPG and Taylor is averaging 119 yds a game. I have the Colts under 9 and I’m starting to sweat this one out after an awful start by Went and 2 bad beat losses. Colts are 6-2 ATS of late but 3-6 ATS at home.Now, before I hear you say, TB has the best rush defense (they do), Vita Vea is their best run stopper and he’s out. Last 5 games, the Bucs have allowed 111 rush yds a game so the bloom is off the rose. Bucs are 0-5 ATS on the road and 0-3 ATS against winning teams. But let’s get a little insurance by teasing this with…

In the third, “who gives a shit” game of the week, let’s talk Carolina and Miami. This game on paper is worse than the Asian guys in the Last Dragon. Goddamn, this film is awful. Anyway, Carolina is 2-6 ATS and SU of late. 1-5 ATS against Mia, 2-4 SU although Carolina 10-2 ATS of late on the road. But in the last 4, Miami defense is 3rd in points allowed as well as 2nd best in allowed QBR rating. Carolina defense has been holding it down as well: 2nd in yards allowed and 6th in PPG. Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS in November games but 3-7 SU of late.

Dolphins +8 and Colts +9

No Brown, no Jones, no Johnson. Sounds like the 3/5 starting 5 of an NBA lineup out. But wait, there’s more! Down 3 CBs, 2 LBs, a G, and a DT all out. So let’s get this straight, the Titans who lost to the Texans and have no one on offense and defense. They go to New England and facing a defense who has given up THIRTEEN points in THREE games. They’re 3rd in takeaways, 7th in sacks, and FIRST in points allowed. Yeah, we’re taking the Pats down to a near pick em. Then 2-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against NE, 1-6 SU in NE. Pats are rolling, 5-0 ATS and SU of late. Just tease them and kick back with a Colt 45 cause it works every time.

Titans team total under 18

Pats -1/GB+7

Yes, I know Rodgers toe must be hurting him worse than it is for us to look at his mullet. And I know the Rams are off 2 losses with a bye. It’s supposed to get frigid tomorrow in Lambeau and before last week’s explosion in Minnesota, (hope you took Minn like I told you to) Packers gave up 22 or less in 7 games. And looky, looky, here: Packers have given up 11 points per game at Lambeau over their last 4 at home. Rams are 1-4 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against GB, 1-5 SU in GB. Packers are on fire: 9-1 ATS and 8-2 SU, 10-1 SU at home. Yes, a couple more injuries on defense but hence why we’re teasing the Pack up to 7. Let’s cross those fingers and hope the Pack o line holds up and they keep it to 7.

Pats -.5/Pit +10 teaser for all the reasons above.

NFL picks week 11

Ever get punched in the nuts so hard, kicked in the head, and then forced to watched Chris D’Elia’s standup? Yeah, that was me last week with my picks. You want to know how bad I was? 2-10-1 last week. That’s inconceivable. The Ravens and Steelers combined for 5 of those 10 losses. What a complete shit show this was and man, I was sick to my stomach for a few days. However, new week so goddamn, saddle up.

Joe Flacco starting today. Those words I wouldn’t expect to type unless this was when we had a black President in office. Jets defense has allowed 175 points in their last 4 and Dolphins blitz the most at 39% of the time. I don’t think Flacco can move his wheelchair that fast so get ready for a heavy dose of max protect for ol Joey. Jets have the 2nd worst run defense in the league but Dolphins have the NFL’s worst YPC rate at 2.5. If not now, when, for Myles Gaskin? Miami has covered 6 straight against the Jets but 1-5 ATS as a favorite. BUUUT the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS against the Jets and 6-1 SU. Jets 2-8 ATS and SU against Miami of late, 3-9 SU at home. I got this number earlier today at 3.5, now at 4. So here we go, 21-17!

Dolphins -3.5

Houston has been impossible to bet unless you tease them and even that has been a dubious proposition…kind of like dating someone who immediately offers up their pronouns in the first 2 seconds of meeting you. Hard pass, yuck. Texans 2-5 ATS of late and Tennessee 5-1 ATS of late. Tyrod will be back in there as QB for Texans and the last time he started and played a full game, Cooks had over 100 yds. Tenn pass defense is 27th in the NFL and I think Texans keep it close enough. Tennessee isn’t blowing anyone out without Henry and they sure let the Saints fuck up my bet late last week. Key number I got so I pounced on this earlier in the week.

Texans +10.5

Let’s see if Kirk Cousins unvaccinated mouth can kiss Aaron Rodgers supposed immunized lips and suck out his soul like Shang Tsung in Mortal Combat. GB has been a covering machine of late, 9-0 ATS and 4-2 ATS against Minn. Hell, they’re 5-0 ATS on the road. 8/9 Vikings/GB game have been decided by 7 or less. Good news on the Vikings front: raping and pillaging is up! JK, LOL ­čÖé Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are back on defense for the Vikings. What’s scary is the Vikings are 1-7 ATS at home this year and 5-11 ATS of late. But they do cover as dogs and this is an absolute do or die game for the Vikes. Also, no Aaron Jones for GB today. Rodgers has a gimpy toe and let’s see if we can win this outright or just lose by a point.

Vikings +1.5

Saints are a dead nuts first half under and dead nuts second half over. I see Payton playing conservatively to open the game as well as doing his best to keep it close and mistake free for Simian. Believe it or not, you can now type those words without loading a weapon to put in your mouth as he’s played “well” of late.

Eagles 1h under 22.5

Eagles best rushing attack in last 3 weeks meets the best rush defense in the NFL. Saints allow league lowest 1.9 yards allowed for zone reads so that takes Philly out of its element. Best number I can find: Saints 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright when they’re an underdog. Yes, I know there’s no Kamara and the line went up to 3 but hey, when you lock in early, you get burned sometimes. Let’s hope for an outright Saints win. Eagles have been beating on bad teams but losing to good ones. They’re 4-2 ATS of late but 5-13 SU in that period. Meaning they’re obviously better as the dog. Also, they’re 0-5 SU at home. Give me an excuse to root against Philly, sure, why the hell not.

Saints +2

All of the reasons above I like the Vikings and Kyler Murray is PROBABLY out for Zona as the line dropped to Sea -3. That screams inside information and glad I locked in this teaser earlier! See, things do work for you on the other side. Kyler Murray quickly becoming the guy you draft in fantasy and then take a solid backup 3-4 rounds later. Speaking of Kyler, did his parents mean to name him Kyler or did they want to name him Kyle but have that overbearing, annoying Long Island accent? Back afta dis. Zona just got embarrassed at home with Colt McCoy and if we get him again, YAHTZEE. Zona 6-2 ATS and 8-2 SU of late. They’re 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against Seattle. Russ Wilson got hosed on calls last week and was shut out for the first time in his career in GB.

Vikings +7.5 and Seattle +7.5

No Kyler makes this game even easier to pick under but some stats nonetheless. Seattle under 6/7 of late, 4/6 under against Seattle, 5/5 vs NFC opponent. Also, the under is 12-2 when Russ starts.

Az under 48

Lions have allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Myles Garrett ALREADY has 13 sacks which is getting close to Strahan’s record so let’s hope he falls short of that distinction. Not that it mattered (except last week when the Lions TIED the Steelers and of course, I had the Steelers teased to 2.5) Goff is out and Boyle is in for the Lions. It’s supposed to pour in Cleveland so I grabbed under 43.5 a couple of days ago. It’s 42.5 at the time of this article so what does that tell you? Det has gone 6/7 under of late and the Browns have the distinct honor of going under 5/5 in week 11. Yeah, who gives a shit about that but hey, it’s information! Browns have gone 4/6 over of late but with a Baker banged up shoulder and impending (supposed) monsoon, except a lot of running and Detroit offensive ineptitude.

Browns under 43.5

4 team ML Parlay: Niners, Titans, Browns, Bucs

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

2021 NFL picks week 2 Against the Spread

Back from Vegas and caught up on sleep (finally) where I was accosted by not one by two, Aunt Kathies. Both were above 60 however one looked like she could still compete in beauty pageants (no bullshit) and the other…well, let’s just say she was quite excited to apply suntan lotion to me while talking about her “cooter.” And of course, who could forget about the Raiders fan we saw last monday night at the bar with his jersey name being, “Raider Pussy” and the number 1.

5-3 last week, 1-1 this week as I took the Giants +3.5 (hit) and 1h under 20.5 (miss) So that brings me to a total of 6-4 for the year and remember, all the videos starring the Cookie Monster are on IG and FB (if you’re lucky enough to have me as a friend3

Lost the Bills last week teased down to .5 as I thought they’d win and they sure dominated the line of scrimmage. But a fumble for a TD and going for it on 4th and failing twice did them in. Pitt D played well and now they face the Raiders who opened their stadium in grand fashion, an OT thriller that HAD to leave them spent. I just hope Raider Pussy 1 makes the trip to Pittsburgh to support his Raiders. Derek Carr was the worst QB last week against pressure. And has Lois Einhorn said in Ace Ventura, “What do you know about, PRESSURE?” I know Carr was 1/9 with a pick under pressure and if Pitt can make Josh Allen look like Josh McCown, they’re gonna do wonders to Carr today. And no Josh Jacobs either, I’m not joshing you with all of these Joshes. Vegas is 1-4 SU in Pitt but 7-1 ATS against Pitt. Pitt is 5-1 ATS at home in September so that should make you feel better. I can’t see the Raiders coming into Pitt and making much, if any, noise. I grabbed it at 6.5 but as of 10:52am, the line is back down to 5.5, when I should’ve grabbed it. And that’s the rule kids, don’t wait to get cute. You see a number you like, lock it in before it goes to or above a key number (3 and 7)

Pitt -6.5 (medium bet)

For those of you who watched the Pats game, you saw they Pats were about to go into the end zone against the Fins and then coughed it up. I have to think there’s less than zero chance that Bellichick loses to a Jets team who got manhandled by Carolina. Oh yeah, their stud OL Beckton is out now. Pats defense will easily send Wilson running around for his life. Pats 5-2 ATS against the Jets but 10-0 SU against them and 5-0 SU in NY. Jets are also 1-9 ATS in September so inspiring about as much confidence as an immunocompromised patient licking a subway pole. This one SHOULD be an easy one.

Pats -5.5 heavy

Can’t believe I’m typing these words but christ, here we are…I enjoyed Sebasian Maniscalco’s last standup special. Just kidding! I like the Bears this week. They played a solid game against the Rams defense, Montgomery had over 100 yds rushing and Dalton was decent. Stafford just threw some quick strike bombs (covered w the Rams in 2 different teasers and a ML parlay) but never really had control of the game like you would think. Bengals played an OT thriller where they got lucky that the refs called a fumble for Dalvin Cook that wasn’t. But ya boy had that Minn over and sucked that out. So Cincy is 1-18-1 SU on the road but 4-2 SU on the road against Chi. Wow, that’s odd. Bengals defense has more gaping holes than Hope Solo’s leaked nudes and I think Dalton does enough to win, plus the number is on the right side, 1.5 but I locked in at 2.5. Not really worried about that swing. Bears are 5-0 ATS against AFC north teams but 1-4 SU at home of late. Again, those numbers are out of whack as Dalton just became their QB. I think they do enough to win by that FG

Bears -2.5 medium

I have the Colts as an under for this year but remember, key numbers are in play here. As stated above with the Bears, Rams were good but not as dominating as you thought. Here’s the stat of stats for you. Colts have lost EIGHT straight week 1 games and have won 3 straight week 2 games. They’re getting back Quinton Nelson which should be a help to Wentz. Colts are 5-1 ATS against NFC and Rams are 1-5 ATS against an AFC team. Again, the number is key as it’s 3.5 and home dogs who are 5-2 ATS this year already. I think the Colts keep it tight

Colts +3.5 medium

Panthers manhandled the Jets last week which is as surprising as Josh Gordon manhandling weed. BTW, he got reinstated AGAIN this week. That’s how you know it’s about to be fall, when Josh Gordon gets the thumbs up from the league. Even Steve Howe said, “enough is enough.” And now for the handicap which is going to be a lot of what I said above, home dogs cover a bunch. And now, let’s take it a step further. Mike Lombardi said divisional home dogs cover ~64% of the time. Also, Saints are missing a TON of coaches due to Covid and their best CB, Lattimore, is out with a hand injury. Winston treated Green Bay like Biden handled the Afghanistan exit, sloppily. But did you know he didn’t have 100 yds passing till midway through the 4th quarter? Wow. And get this: Under Brees the Saints are 8-1 SU against Carolina BUT 2-5 ATS. Meaning they play them tight.

Car +3.5 medium

I think we all know that Cleveland, TB, and GB are going to respectively murder their opponents like Cardi B murders the English language. But as a savvy gambler, you’re not laying double digits in the NFL. And I don’t feel like laying out money line prices like -650 cause god forbid you lose one of them, you’re down a lot if you bet all 3. So I made a 3 way money line parlay bet with those 3.

3 leg ML parlay Cle, TB, GB. heavy

The Browns can put up points as can Houston. Both defenses stink so let’s focus on some over stats: Vikes and that fractured locker room led by that wacky Kirk Cousins has gone over 4/5 of late. Zona has gone over 5/6 at home and we saw what they did to Tennessee’s defense that only be compared to Bayonne, NJ. Browns have gone over 6/9 of late but under 4/5 against Houston at home. Teasing both of these games makes 27-20 games both winners. And I have HALF an inkling to take Houston +13.5 and if that hits 14 by kickoff, I’m on it.

Teaser Browns over 41.5 and Vikings over 44.5 medium

I’m afraid of a lazy backdoor cover by the Falcons even though they showed as much fight as Terry Schiavo during a tug of war against the Eagles last week. I expect TB to come out firing as they’ve had 10 days off and after almost losing to the Cowboys, not letting up one bit. Don’t be surprised to see TB up by at least 10 at the half and not have to sweat the second half and a backdoor cover.

TB -7 heavy

NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.