If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here. Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific. Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.
4-4 last week, meh. Lost TB and the over. Lost Bal and SF over. Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix. Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me. Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD. Either way, I was winning that one. Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500. And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants. And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all. Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club. 30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies. Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels? I vote Hispanic anchorwoman. No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.
The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week. Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans. So barely a home field advantage for GB.
Take GB +9.5
Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year. Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal. Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5. The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5. Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints. Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home. Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.
I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53
The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt. Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs. 21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.
Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)
After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang. Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton. He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest. No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over. That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home. Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.
Grabbing the Bengals -3.5
Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush. Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points? Heiiidy HOOOOOO.
Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.
Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode. Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING. They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR. Now I ask you, where are the points coming from? Jared Cook? I’d rather have Jared from Subway. Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.
Take the Colts -3
Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from? All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets. They signed Richard Matthews and who cares? He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster? Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home. I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?
Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.
Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend. As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year. Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit. Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water. Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.
Take the Skins -1
The Niners just got smoked. I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers. They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe. 4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.
Last week, your hero got back on track! 5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5. Lost Giants under and Titans. 26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season. Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%. Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm. Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!
And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!
In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes. Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago. Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack. BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted. And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned. Back to the handicap. Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day. But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST. Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore. And we know how these early games usually fair. Raiders/Seattle this year, under. Jags/Ravens last year, under. Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under. Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks. And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs. Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin. C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations. Don’t give me that “family name” argument. How about a LITTLE originality for the kid? Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision. Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go. Some numbers? Sure! Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota. And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground. Where are the points coming from? Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.
Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5
Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon. Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football. Horrendously awkward and zero respect given. Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.” Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has. Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week. Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground. Peyton Barber should have a good game as well. Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks. As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime. Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR. Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year. Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road. Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.
Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.
The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour. Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0. But on the road after a bye, 0-2. Saints also 2-4 SU on the road. Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense. Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph. Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal. Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints. Let’s talk the total which is now 49. Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6. And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under. I can’t tee it up anymore so…
Take Baltimore -3 and under 49. I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.
Last one of the day. I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night. I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point? I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus. Ever see one of those in a porn? Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked. Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you. Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home. Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road. Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again. They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib. No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions. The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER. 52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.
Niners over 52
I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny. I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week. And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night. What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining. Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year. Which makes me better than most of you at this. And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch! It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm. We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes. So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!
Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them. Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time. Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that. But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS? They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled. Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it? Sold. Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside. Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami. I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans. If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!
Take the Steelers +2
The Rams couldn’t be hotter. But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle. What does LA have trouble with? Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place. Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently. What do the RAMS have trouble doing? Stopping the run. Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week. What does Denver do well? Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack. Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol. Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow?? Yeah, they’re going to run the ball. I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts. The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late. Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home. But Denver is 6/9 under at home. And Den is getting 7, a perfect number. If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.
Take Den +7 and under 50.5
The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad. Like, as bad as that movie, Tag. DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once. Well, right when I turned it off I did. Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life. Then I went back to frowning again. This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home. Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver. Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel? Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me. I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better. But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag. Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again. The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.
Take the Falcons -3.
Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall. They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week. This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game. Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.
I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5 When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points. And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.
Some of you love to wish away my summer. Well congrats, it’s now gone. Thanks a lot, you vortexes of fun. The only good news is that leaves me with a couple of things: my annual trip to Vegas and of course, FREEEEEE MONEY! So I’m writing out my picks on Thursday night, 9/6, and we’re going bare bones this article. Why? Because my flight leaves in a few hours and you’re not paying me for these. Even though last year, I was 58%.
I took Philly under 45. Because Nick Foles isn’t looking good in the preseason and at time of this article, he’s not looking good now.
You should know that under are the soup d jours in the first 2 weeks of the year as most offensive still haven’t fully clicked. And with that gem, I also locked in Pitt under 44 because Pitt has gone under 7/8 on the road, 8/11 playing Cleveland, and 5/5 when playing in Cleveland. Pitt is also 13-2-1 under on the road, yikes. And there are chances of thunderstorms. Remember, Ben sucks on the road.
Whenever a team has to travel far, don’t expect much scoring. And with that theme, let’s also take the Cardinals under 43.5. Washington has gone under 4/6 and 4/6 in AZ. AZ has gone under 10/15 and 14/20. And they have to travel 1500 miles with Alex Smith learning the ropes in game 1. New QB for Arizona, uh oh. Wait, never mind. It’s Sam Bradford, who’s barely played in the last 3 years. Carry on.
The sharps talked me into taking the Bengals +3 (I’m buying the half point). Luck hasn’t thrown downfield all preseason? And who else on that offense scares you? Exactly. How is their defense? Still garbage? Thought so. Bengals front 7 is solid and also has a good o line. I might even take the under 48 as Indy is 5/5 on the under and 5/5 under at home. Also, 5/5 at home playing Cincy.
In my only favorite of the week, no way (watch it happen now) the Jets go into Detroit and cover. Rookie QB Sam Darnold won’t be looking to air it out, he’ll be playing it safe in his debut. Jets are 2-5 ATS and 1-3-1 on the road. Take the Lions -6.
Dallas and Carolina ALEADY have banged up offensive lines? Jesus, that was fast. Cowboys on the road: under hit 4/5 and 8/9. Dallas with no one on offense but Zeke? I MAY take Carolina under 42.
I love the Saints but I don’t know about laying that NAWWWWNE and a half. I may take them on the money line at -440 but let’s see…
Those are your picks for week 1 and if you want to follow along on my win total bets, I took Baltimore under 8, Cleveland under 5.5 (GTFO, they’re not going from 0 to 6 wins in a season, and Buffalo under 5.5.
I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october. 2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen. Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did. And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy: Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1. Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters. So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.
The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs. So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours. Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts. Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA. Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home. I think Oak +7 is a play
But I like the LA under 42 better.
My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house. Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game. In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract. It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple. But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can. This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona. Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable. I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year. Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road. Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall. Third time’s the charm.
Take the Skins -3
Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears. Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1. The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings. I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense. Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota. John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out. Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs. Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi. The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points. Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.
I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half. I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.
In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane. This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once. The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center. And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….
Lay -5 and grab the Colts.
I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week. Why? The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall. But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22. And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7. No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either. Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.
Take Bal over 40
In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help. Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6. They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS. And why doth thou give a dookie about this game? Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons. And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason. Yes, Seattle is healthier. But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS. I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.
Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points.
The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think. The Saints need this game to ensure a home game. The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit. Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall. 5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO. Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under. This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos. But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…
Goes under 48.5
Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…