Last week, your hero got back on track! 5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5. Lost Giants under and Titans. 26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season. Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%. Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm. Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!
And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!
In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes. Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago. Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack. BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted. And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned. Back to the handicap. Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day. But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST. Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore. And we know how these early games usually fair. Raiders/Seattle this year, under. Jags/Ravens last year, under. Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under. Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks. And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs. Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin. C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations. Don’t give me that “family name” argument. How about a LITTLE originality for the kid? Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision. Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go. Some numbers? Sure! Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota. And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground. Where are the points coming from? Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.
Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5
Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon. Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football. Horrendously awkward and zero respect given. Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.” Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has. Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week. Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground. Peyton Barber should have a good game as well. Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks. As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime. Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR. Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year. Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road. Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.
Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.
The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour. Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0. But on the road after a bye, 0-2. Saints also 2-4 SU on the road. Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense. Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph. Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal. Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints. Let’s talk the total which is now 49. Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6. And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under. I can’t tee it up anymore so…
Take Baltimore -3 and under 49. I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.
Last one of the day. I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night. I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point? I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus. Ever see one of those in a porn? Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked. Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you. Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home. Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road. Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again. They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib. No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions. The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER. 52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.
Niners over 52
4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week. Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game. Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT. Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals. Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead. However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over. The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late. The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well. Do I go back to the well with the Jags? Read on and find out. BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me. Praying for something good to happen and it never did. Now THAT’S how you write a joke. So I’m 0-1 to start the week. Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds. Wish me luck.
Short answer, yep. And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football. You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot. Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months. Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long. My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert. So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole. Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper. The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know. Ok, another nugget. Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road. The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.
Take the Jags -9.5
What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements? But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them. Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff. Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE. In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time. Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late. I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.
Take the Pats -9
Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case. Seriously, who names their kid, Case? I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed. Wacka, wacka, wacka. The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence. I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week. I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road. Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.
Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47
The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans. Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better. Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS. And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS. But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over. Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal. The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7. So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…
The over 43.5
The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week. Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there. This isn’t the NY Times, folks. The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home. When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21. Holy. Christ. Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO. Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss? Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN. Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG. Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets. I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it. I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover. Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.
Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.
I kind of like:
The Jets to bounce back +3. KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.
LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.
Rams -7 in AZ. Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again? I doubt it.
Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.
Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch. Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.
TB over 45. Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this. The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5
It’s amazing what a changes in a week. I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks. Last week, 6-1. The only loss was my lock of the week, of course. Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover. The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet. It’s been a weird season thus far. Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.
I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game. They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!! When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout? Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that. Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!
The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points. Can they win by 14? Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that. But the over 44 gets me tumescent. Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home. Gronk and Amendola are both a go. NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points. And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them. Pats probably cover but I’m taking
Pats Over 44
I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers. Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special. But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment. Who comes into town this week? One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints. I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road. The Saints are now getting 5.5 points. But the Saints defense is hot horseshit. Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points? But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread? I have no idea but we do have another option. Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina. Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5. Hence why I REALLY LIKE:
The under 46.5
The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there. Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens. And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream. Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball! Daddy, juice*” *Denotes beer. Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved. But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week. Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax. Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax. But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London. They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc. And they’re getting 3 points? AND the numbers back me up? You won’t hear me say this often but
Give me the Jags +3
Denver is playing in Buffalo. Both have great defenses and so-so offenses. Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road. Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back. You know, when Denver had a offense. Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points. Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm. Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.
Denver under 39
I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice. The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years. Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged. I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it. Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road. But again, I’m not trusting either teams. I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy. Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under. This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee. Wacka, Wacka, Wacka. (Shoots self in the face)
Take the under 42.5
The sharps are all OVER the Bengals. They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town. I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5. Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full? Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night? Hope you had the over like I told you to. Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS? I do. GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road. Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20. Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy. Will Cincy get it together? Maybe. But not this week. Death, taxes, and GB at home.
GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5
Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy. I hope you had Indy like I told you to. I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under. Want a good laugh? Watch Ezekiel try and tackle. MANIACAL LAUGH. Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS. Dallas went under 11/14 on the road. AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas. The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off. AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home. Tons of numbers to back my predictions of:
AZ +3 and under 47.
The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road. 7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon. Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday. But Pitt has a great defense. And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either. Which is why I’m going with yet again,
The under 44
Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do
KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3
Last week, 6-1
This week 0-1 (Rams under)
I love the summer, absolutely adore it. Nothing more sad than seeing that first leaf change to a bright yellow. Having that first chilling evening or morning. Seeing the sun set by 8pm. A shitty stream of films in the theater. But, there’s just one redeeming thing about the fall. Football is back. Which means I go back to Vegas for the week 1 games and as you’re reading this, I’m there now. And I’m probably drunk, like 85% of the time. I have a couple of gigs when I’m out there, at the Sapphire club and Southpointe Casino so if you’re in town, come check out my bits.
But before I get into them, I’d be remiss if I didn’t promote that my brainchild, “Comics Watching Comics,” is now up on Amazon Video! Go binge Season 1 and tell me what you think! Also, Comics Watching Comics T shirts are available for $20 which includes shipping. Contact me on how to get your S-XL shirt
Here are the picks for week 1:
I’m writing this article as the Chiefs/Pats game is going on. I just can’t see how the Pats are going to open the season, at home, raising the Super Bowl banner (great job of choking, you piece of shit Falcons. Although I did hit the over, thank you!) and NOT cover the spread. Pats are 8/8 ATS extending from last year and KC is 2-4 ATS in NE. They blew an EARLY chance to go up at LEAST 10-0 and even 14-0 but a bad play call from Bellichek on 4th and 1 squashed that notion. But the Chiefs just took a big dump on the Pats and winning outright. So I just lost:
The Patriots -9
The Eagles went out and spent big money to have arguably the second best trio of WRs in the NFL. See NY Giants trio, #1. You know what they didn’t spend money on? Defense. And charm school for their fans. That accent and their manners would make Mr. Belvedere turn beet red. You know who else went out and spent a lot of money on a top WR? Washington with Terelle Pryor. And for now, they have a healthy Jordan Reed and very solid Jameson Crowder. You know what they didn’t spend money on? Defense. Washington has a good running game to compliment their aerial attack. This game is going to be a scoring bonanza. Washington hit the over at home 8/10. When both teams played each other in the last 3, 3 times they hit the over. Good enough for me
Philly over 48
I believe in sports karma, especially when there’s a natural disaster. Bet the farm on a team who the nation rallies for, especially when they’re home. And when said team is playing against Blake Bortles, well even Blake Bortle’s parents won’t be able to convince me that their little boy is going to go in Houston and bust that spread. Here is a nice stat going back to last year: Houston is 8-2-1 against division opponents. Did I mention it’s Blake Bortles on the road? Thought so.
Lock of the week is Hou -5.5
Cincinnati has a solid defense. Joe Flacco was banged up all preseason and has a handful of practices under his belt. Their defense is putrid. Cincy has a nice stable of RBs and of course, AJ Green. This is more of an anti-Ravens pick. Bengals are 7-2-1 in Sept and fun fact, Cincy has hit the under in their last 4 in a row. Ravens also hit the under 4/5 in their division.
Cincy -3 and maybe under 42 as a bonus
I already locked in my Giants the second Elliot was suspended because I was afraid the line would drop. Would you believe that son of a bitch is going to play week 1 and the line actually dropped? Odell Beckham Jr is still a game time decision. I think the Giants D is too much for them yet again. They stopped Elliot and Dez cold in their tracks the last 2 times they played and if they were to lose, I don’t think they’re going to lose by more than 3. And history backs that up as the Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5. Good thing I locked in at 3.5
Tennessee is everyone’s early darling and I’m all in on Mariota and Murray in 2 leagues. Oakland could’ve made a deep run but Carr snapped his leg late last season. I like Tennessee but the numbers for Oakland on the road back them up more. But you know what I like in this game? Points. Neither defense sends shivers up my butthole. Raiders 8/11 with the over.
Raiders over 50
The daytime Emmy awards should also cover sports. Because whoever are the announcers are for the Rams/Colts game will put on the best performance of the year when you hear, “RAMS…COLTS! NEXT ON FOX!” Andrew Luck is out. Frank Gore is as old as Woody Allan. Their defense is gonna get washed over like a Puerto Rico during Hurricane Irma. But not this Sunday because new coach or not, the Rams aren’t doing much. And we know the Colts don’t have much going on. So this is an easy one.
Rams under 42
Lastly, I just think Phil Rivers and the San Diego, whoops. Los Angeles…SUPER CHARGERS. Does’t have that same ring, does it? Well blame yourselves, San Diego fans. I get it, the weather is great. The women are hot. So much to do. But shit, it’s only 8 home games a year to support your team. Let’s look at some numbers: SD 10-4 ATS on the road. Broncos are 3-8-1 home against SD. And oh yeah, Trevor Simian is the Den QB. And if he goes down, who’s up next? Brock Osweiller who’s making a kajillion dollars to sit the bench. The last time I saw a heist that big, Henry Hill was listening to 1010 WINS in the shower, having a laugh.
Gimme the Chargers +3.5
I kinda like Pitt -8, the Vikings and the under 48 as well on sunday night but don’t know if I’m going to bet them. Just some food for thought.
Well folks, we’re right in the thick of the NFL playoffs. Sorry I didn’t get an article to you last week but if you follow me on FB, you would’ve seen my elephant shit picks. Ugh, the only one I got right was the Seattle under, 1-3 for the weekend. The Pitt over almost hit and my dad always said, there’s no such thing as half pregnant. I went with Oakland and the rookie QB, Connor Cook. I thought Brock Osweiller would be worse but he did enough to cover. The Giants wide receivers forgot how to catch except they were able to catch a flight to hang out with Justin Bieber. Seriously, if you’re going to take a mini-vacation during an off day, the last thing I’m doing is hanging out with that little fruit. I’d rather hang out with Justin Verlander so I can hopefully see Kate Upton topless and those massive…acting chops.
Let’s talk gambling for this week: I took the ATL over last night and sweated out the Patriots -16 so 2-0 for the week so far. First game today is GB/Dal. You can truly make a case for both: Aaron Rodgers is hotter than gonorrhea and Emily Rajakowski (I’d still do her if she had an std AND make her a mixtape.) Dallas can run the ball on anyone, has had 2 weeks of rest, but has a rookie QB at the helm. GB is without Jordy Nelson but that didn’t stop Rodgers from dismantling the Giants in the 2nd half. The stats are favoring both teams (Dallas is 5-0 SU at home and 9/10 vs GB at home while GB is 5/5 SU. The last 5/5 have gone over for GB.) Here’s what I think: I think Dallas plays ball control and runs that ball down their throats and is able to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands.
God, I hope Dallas loses cause there would be nothing worse than a Patriots/Dallas Superbowl. I’d have to root for a meteor to fall just like I did when the Patriots played the Eagles.
I’m leaning GB but I locked in:
GB Under 53
I don’t mind the Chiefs nor the Steelers but let’s be honest: the ONLY team in the AFC who has a chance of knocking off the Pats (and they did look a little vulnerable last night) are the Steelers. The problem though is Pittsburgh on the road isn’t as good. And Andy Reid off a bye 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in the regular season. In the playoffs: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Wow, pretty solid numbers. Pitt outside of the eastern time zone is 6-14. But man, it’s certainly hard to bet against Ben. The line is KC-2 but I’m a hell of a lot more sold on these facts: KC have gone UNDER in 6/7 at home and Pitt has gone 6/7 UNDER on the road. It’s freezing cold and the game got moved because of an ice storm that was supposed to hit KC. So this is a no-brainer for me to take:
KC under 44.5
Rough week last week, worst since week 2 but let’s bounce back in a big way. Sorry for the delay but most of these games are going on now with a few 4pm games. Tough week for picks because of most of the playoff seeds are determined so more over/unders
I took the Colts -4.5 against Jax and as of now, not looking good against the Jags. They’re currently down, 17-0. I figured that Jax got their win out of the way last week with a new coach, Indy’s at home, let’s roll the dice. Public kicked that line up to 6 by kickoff.
Also locked in the Pats/Miami over 46. Pats are all over them with a few minutes left in the first half, 20-0 so that over looks to be relatively on track so far.
My lock of the week is Cle/Pitt under 42. Pitt is resting everyone and Cle can barely score with all of the 1’s out there. That score is 14-0 with a few minutes left in the half so I feel confident with that one.
The Saints are in Atl and Atl is still fighting for a 1st rd bye. The o/u is 56.5 which is insanely high. I grabbed the Saints +7.5 because they can definitely match scores with the Falcons and I think the extra .5 will help.
Lastly, I took the KC/SD under 44.5. Chiefs might have spend their load last week in that offensive outburst last week against Den. The last 4/5 games played by SD were unders and the last 4/5 games that SD played KC were also unders. Good enough for me.
5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues. But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.
I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year. So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!
You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking.
Take the Jets and a mountain of points.
I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week. Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them. And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.
Indy plus 3.5 and over 53
The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2? UGHH. At least I could’ve had a shot in OT. People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department. A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week. The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less. Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here.
Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.
The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?
I’m going with the Bears +3
Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me. I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.
I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.
Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.
For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4
Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.
Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43
Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.
I’m going with the under 51.
Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.
I’m taking Green Bay -7
And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week. (That’s a big lock)
A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.
Take Mia over 42
5-3 last week so more freeeee money came rolling in so I continue to make $. If you’re hitting these picks, do the right thing and paypal (Kgootee@hotmail.com) a cut of your winnings. If it wasn’t for me, that free money wouldn’t be rolling in and you’ve have to do something like work a job to earn a few bucks for Christmas presents.
KC is home after a 10 day layoff against the Titans. And if you’re going to the game, load up on blackberry brandy cause it’s gonna be cold. I know, that’s something your grandfather would tell you to do, especially when you park at “make out point” with your girl. Tenn doesn’t put up THAT many points and neither does KC. It’s 14 degrees there at 11:50am and feels like -8. The ball is gonna feel like a rock so..
I’m taking the under 42
Baltimore screwed me on mon night with a blown coverage td so I lost by .5. Now they play a demoralized, non-motivated Philly team at home. Philly d has been as awful as the reviews as the new Will Smith film. I mean, did he hire the same person who also screened scripts for Jim Carrey after 2000? Bal needs this game to stay within the hunt and the number is friendly. I l know the public loves it and Jimmy Smith is out for Bal but philly is 2-10 ATS the week before they play the Giants
I’m taking the Ravens -5.5
The Packers own December. The Packers own the Bears. The Bears are playing well ATS recently with Barkley. Aaron Rodgers has a calf that is flaring up as of late. What should you do? Here’s a cold (pun intended) hard fact. It’s also colder than Hillary Clinton’s labias in Chicago. As of 12:35 pm, it’s 11 degrees but feels like -4. Don’t be a hero, just win money.
I’m taking the gb under 38.5
It’s been too long since New Orleans lit it up. They’re playing in AZ and both teams aren’t playing for anything. I love the saints in a dome and I like AZ to put up points at home. It’s gonna be a loosey goosey atmosphere so…
I’m taking AZ over 50
Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5. Dalllas 15-31 ats in december but throw those numbers out because that’s under Romo. Dallas covered only 11/37 as a home favorite. Again, a lot of that is under Romo. But Dallas is losing steam and the Bucs are gaining steam. There are enough points are enough for me to
Take the Bucs +7
And in my locks of the week:
Oak has had 10 days off to think about that stinker in KC. They’re on the road where they are 15-2 ATS as visitors. SD lost Melvin Gordon for this week so that means more air show and probably more turnovers from Phillip Rivers. It’s laughable when people say he’s better than Eli. Rivers owns garbage fantasy football time but lacks in the rings department. He hands that ball over like he’s been held at gunpoint. But Oak gives up points as well as scores them. So that’s why I’m taking:
Oak -2.5 and over 49.5