Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

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NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

NFL Picks ATS Week 14

Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table.  To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops.  Colts got shut out by the Jags,  Ooops.  Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops.  Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB.  47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs.  And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends.  Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1.  The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss.  But of late:  Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB.  And rain for some of the day as well.  Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under.  This one sings out to me  so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5 
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs?  Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun.  Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl.  Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today?  Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job.  That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year.  “Another loss?  Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.”  ATL 1-5 ATS of late.  Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable.  I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
GB -3.5
What does Kansas City not do well?  Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill?  True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting.  THEY DON’T.  With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time.  And what does running the ball do?  Runs the clock.  Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL.  So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to.  BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today.  Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home,  Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday?  Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2.  And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them.  And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG.  Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed.  Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak,  Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS.  Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS.  Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS.  Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game.  We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good.  The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits.  
Oak +10.5
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky.  And I’ve bet them during that streak.  But today, that streak is likely to end.  Remember the last time these teams played?  I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it.  Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG.  Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy.  Here’s a larger sample size:  Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston.  Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern.  Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
  
Colts +4.5
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3.  How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3?  Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful.  Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late.  On a neutral field, these teams are even?  Wow, I just don’t see it.  I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats.  I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle.  And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!
Seahawks -3

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5