NFL picks week 11

Ever get punched in the nuts so hard, kicked in the head, and then forced to watched Chris D’Elia’s standup? Yeah, that was me last week with my picks. You want to know how bad I was? 2-10-1 last week. That’s inconceivable. The Ravens and Steelers combined for 5 of those 10 losses. What a complete shit show this was and man, I was sick to my stomach for a few days. However, new week so goddamn, saddle up.

Joe Flacco starting today. Those words I wouldn’t expect to type unless this was when we had a black President in office. Jets defense has allowed 175 points in their last 4 and Dolphins blitz the most at 39% of the time. I don’t think Flacco can move his wheelchair that fast so get ready for a heavy dose of max protect for ol Joey. Jets have the 2nd worst run defense in the league but Dolphins have the NFL’s worst YPC rate at 2.5. If not now, when, for Myles Gaskin? Miami has covered 6 straight against the Jets but 1-5 ATS as a favorite. BUUUT the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS against the Jets and 6-1 SU. Jets 2-8 ATS and SU against Miami of late, 3-9 SU at home. I got this number earlier today at 3.5, now at 4. So here we go, 21-17!

Dolphins -3.5

Houston has been impossible to bet unless you tease them and even that has been a dubious proposition…kind of like dating someone who immediately offers up their pronouns in the first 2 seconds of meeting you. Hard pass, yuck. Texans 2-5 ATS of late and Tennessee 5-1 ATS of late. Tyrod will be back in there as QB for Texans and the last time he started and played a full game, Cooks had over 100 yds. Tenn pass defense is 27th in the NFL and I think Texans keep it close enough. Tennessee isn’t blowing anyone out without Henry and they sure let the Saints fuck up my bet late last week. Key number I got so I pounced on this earlier in the week.

Texans +10.5

Let’s see if Kirk Cousins unvaccinated mouth can kiss Aaron Rodgers supposed immunized lips and suck out his soul like Shang Tsung in Mortal Combat. GB has been a covering machine of late, 9-0 ATS and 4-2 ATS against Minn. Hell, they’re 5-0 ATS on the road. 8/9 Vikings/GB game have been decided by 7 or less. Good news on the Vikings front: raping and pillaging is up! JK, LOL ūüôā Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are back on defense for the Vikings. What’s scary is the Vikings are 1-7 ATS at home this year and 5-11 ATS of late. But they do cover as dogs and this is an absolute do or die game for the Vikes. Also, no Aaron Jones for GB today. Rodgers has a gimpy toe and let’s see if we can win this outright or just lose by a point.

Vikings +1.5

Saints are a dead nuts first half under and dead nuts second half over. I see Payton playing conservatively to open the game as well as doing his best to keep it close and mistake free for Simian. Believe it or not, you can now type those words without loading a weapon to put in your mouth as he’s played “well” of late.

Eagles 1h under 22.5

Eagles best rushing attack in last 3 weeks meets the best rush defense in the NFL. Saints allow league lowest 1.9 yards allowed for zone reads so that takes Philly out of its element. Best number I can find: Saints 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright when they’re an underdog. Yes, I know there’s no Kamara and the line went up to 3 but hey, when you lock in early, you get burned sometimes. Let’s hope for an outright Saints win. Eagles have been beating on bad teams but losing to good ones. They’re 4-2 ATS of late but 5-13 SU in that period. Meaning they’re obviously better as the dog. Also, they’re 0-5 SU at home. Give me an excuse to root against Philly, sure, why the hell not.

Saints +2

All of the reasons above I like the Vikings and Kyler Murray is PROBABLY out for Zona as the line dropped to Sea -3. That screams inside information and glad I locked in this teaser earlier! See, things do work for you on the other side. Kyler Murray quickly becoming the guy you draft in fantasy and then take a solid backup 3-4 rounds later. Speaking of Kyler, did his parents mean to name him Kyler or did they want to name him Kyle but have that overbearing, annoying Long Island accent? Back afta dis. Zona just got embarrassed at home with Colt McCoy and if we get him again, YAHTZEE. Zona 6-2 ATS and 8-2 SU of late. They’re 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against Seattle. Russ Wilson got hosed on calls last week and was shut out for the first time in his career in GB.

Vikings +7.5 and Seattle +7.5

No Kyler makes this game even easier to pick under but some stats nonetheless. Seattle under 6/7 of late, 4/6 under against Seattle, 5/5 vs NFC opponent. Also, the under is 12-2 when Russ starts.

Az under 48

Lions have allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Myles Garrett ALREADY has 13 sacks which is getting close to Strahan’s record so let’s hope he falls short of that distinction. Not that it mattered (except last week when the Lions TIED the Steelers and of course, I had the Steelers teased to 2.5) Goff is out and Boyle is in for the Lions. It’s supposed to pour in Cleveland so I grabbed under 43.5 a couple of days ago. It’s 42.5 at the time of this article so what does that tell you? Det has gone 6/7 under of late and the Browns have the distinct honor of going under 5/5 in week 11. Yeah, who gives a shit about that but hey, it’s information! Browns have gone 4/6 over of late but with a Baker banged up shoulder and impending (supposed) monsoon, except a lot of running and Detroit offensive ineptitude.

Browns under 43.5

4 team ML Parlay: Niners, Titans, Browns, Bucs

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NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

Week 5 NFL against the spread picks

Don’t listen to that hack, Vegas Dave!

Hello all you cool cats and kittens. 3-3 last week as I won the Gb/KC teaser, Bills, and Mia/over teaser. Lost the Jags, Lions 1h, and TB/under teaser. which brings me to an overall record of 14-7, 67% for the year. So first week that wasn’t profitable but goddamnit, we’re going to hopefully fix it this week.

First up, Washington Redskins. You might be saying, “Why in tarnation are you giving 2 shits about this game? And I’ll say, “Why are you talking like Yosemite Sam?” Haskins is benched and they’re giving Kyle Allen a shot. This is the THIRD cross country trip for the Rams. Chase Young is back and the Skins play tight defense and have a decent pass rush. You saw the Giants disrupt the Rams last week on offense and the Skins have a better front 7 than the Giants. There aren’t many stats to back up my argument because all recent numbers are with Haskins as QB. Pros bet numbers and +7 is a good spot to grab a home dog. As I said, Rams have logged more miles than Bill Clinton and Donald Trump did to Epstein’s private island. And to boot, the Rams have the Niners next week so this could be a classic trap game.

Take the Skins +7

STOP! Teaser Time! Pittsburgh fresh off a Covid bye and now gets an Eagles team who blew their load with that win in SF. Philly stinks, we all know it. And the Steelers d is solid. They’re going to make Wentz look sillier than an Eagles fan trying to take the SATs. under 5/7 in October. Pittsburgh under 8/11 and 4/5 under vs Philly. One more, 10/13 under vs NFC East. Second half of the teaser. Michael Thomas is now questionable but NO still has 2 CBs that are injured. Justin Herbert gunslinger his way to almost beat the Bucs but Anthony Lynn gives people as much hope as a public defender. Saints looked great in Detroit after being down 14-0 early but made the Lions go from Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 3. Not much data backing me up except for a few key numbers. Saints are 2-5 ATS at home of late. Now, that’s including without fans this year so far. Also, 1-4 at home against the Chargers but those are all Phillip Rivers numbers. We’re playing the numbers and the Chargers are getting over 2 TDs? That Saints d is ripe to get backdoor so let’s take advantage of that key number

Pitt under 50.5 and Chargers +14.5

Browns just blew up the Cowboys defense. That’s not happening to the Colts D who is top in the NFL. Darius Leonard is out for the Colts but that’s still going to keep the Browns offense curtailed. Rivers has become a game manager and so has Mayfield. No Chubb but Kareem Hunt has stepped in nicely. Browns/Indy under have hit 5/7 and in week 5, 4/5 have gone under.

Browns under 47.5

Seattle is just lighting up scoreboards and finding ways to win. Especially Russell Wilson. I’m not crazy about betting on Kirk Cousins as he’s 12-25 ATS after 4pm EST. Minn 1-5 in Seattle, 1-4 SU against NFC west. Zimmer is 0-2 ATS and SU in Seattle. Now, Minnesota D is also putrid but Seattle secondary has a harder time covering receivers than Pete Davidson does covering his teeth with his lips. Jesus, good thing he has a huge honker because that horse face is tough to look at. Now, Seattle is covering games more than you think. 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 11-4 SU at home. 6-2-1 ATS in week 5 and 5-1 ATS on sundays. You can easily tease this both ways, Seattle laying 1 or Minnesota getting 13. But that Minnesota defense has been BAD of late. Is Seattle going to win at home? Yes. Good, don’t be a hero, just win money. Second leg of the teaser…

Browns 0-5 SU home against Indy but 6-1 SU at home. Browns getting a key number with the teaser. Think they keep it close, under a TD. Add in more of the reasons I cited above for the Browns under. It’s called a correlated parlay when you take a favorite and over or under and underdog. Browns won’t be scoring much which means hopefully they’re keeping it close.

Seattle and Browns +7.5

Yet another teaser: Pitt 8-1 vs NFC east, 10-4 SU, 6-1 SU at home, 5-2 SU in Philadelphia. Pitt 7-1-1 ATS in October. Philly 1-4 ATS. More of the same reasons above why I like Pitt down to -1 and now for a second leg of the teaser…

Why is Atlanta giving points to anyone? ATL 1-4 SU in last 5, 2-7 SU at home. They have dominated Carolina at home, 5-0 ATS but A) that was under Ron Rivera and B) Kyle Allen/Cam Newton were QBing the Panthers. We all know that Falcons defense is worse than Al Pacino’s last 10 movies. Carolina has won their last 2 and 1 of their 2 losses have been by more than a TD. So let’s give ourselves more breathing room and bump up the Panthers…

Pitt -1 and Car +7.5

NFL Picks ATS Week 14

Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table. ¬†To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops. ¬†Colts got shut out by the Jags, ¬†Ooops. ¬†Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops. ¬†Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB. ¬†47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs. ¬†And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends. ¬†Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1. ¬†The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss. ¬†But of late: ¬†Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB.¬† And rain for some of the day as well. ¬†Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under. ¬†This one sings out to me ¬†so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5 
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs? ¬†Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun. ¬†Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl. ¬†Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today? ¬†Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job. ¬†That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year. ¬†“Another loss? ¬†Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.” ¬†ATL 1-5 ATS of late. ¬†Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable. ¬†I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
GB -3.5
What does Kansas City not do well? ¬†Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill? ¬†True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting. ¬†THEY DON’T. ¬†With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time. ¬†And what does running the ball do? ¬†Runs the clock. ¬†Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL. ¬†So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to. ¬†BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today. ¬†Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home, ¬†Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday? ¬†Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2. ¬†And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them. ¬†And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG. ¬†Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed. ¬†Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak, ¬†Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS. ¬†Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS. ¬†Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS. ¬†Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game. ¬†We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good. ¬†The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits. ¬†
Oak +10.5
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky. ¬†And I’ve bet them during that streak. ¬†But today, that streak is likely to end. ¬†Remember the last time these teams played? ¬†I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it. ¬†Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG. ¬†Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy. ¬†Here’s a larger sample size: ¬†Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston. ¬†Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern. ¬†Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
  
Colts +4.5
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3. ¬†How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3? ¬†Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful. ¬†Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late. ¬†On a neutral field, these teams are even? ¬†Wow, I just don’t see it. ¬†I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats. ¬†I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle. ¬†And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!
Seahawks -3

NFL week 17 picks ATS

I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october. ¬†2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen. ¬†Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did. ¬†And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy: ¬†Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour¬†And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1. ¬†Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters. ¬†So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning. ¬†

The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs. ¬†So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours. ¬†Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts. ¬†Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA. ¬†Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home. ¬†I think Oak +7 is a play

But I like the LA under 42 better.

My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house. ¬†Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game. ¬†In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract. ¬†It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple. ¬†But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can. ¬†This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona. ¬†Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable. ¬†I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year. ¬†Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road. ¬†Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall. ¬†Third time’s the charm.

Take the Skins -3

Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears. ¬†Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1. ¬†The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings. ¬†I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense. ¬†Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota. ¬†John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out. ¬†Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs. ¬†Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more.¬†Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi. ¬† ¬†The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points. ¬†Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota. ¬†

I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half.  I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.

In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane. ¬†This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once. ¬†The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center. ¬†And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….

Lay -5 and grab the Colts.

I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week. ¬†Why? ¬†The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall. ¬†But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22. ¬†And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7. ¬†No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either. ¬†Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.

Take Bal over 40

In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help. ¬†Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6. ¬†They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS. ¬†And why doth thou give a dookie about this game? ¬†Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons. ¬†And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason. ¬†Yes, Seattle is healthier. ¬†But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS. ¬†I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.

Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points. 

The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think. ¬†The Saints need this game to ensure a home game. ¬†The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit. ¬†Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall. ¬†5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO. ¬†Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under. ¬†This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos. ¬†But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…

Goes under 48.5

Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…

NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

I’m back from Vegas and my liver wishes I had just shot in and left it to die in the desert. ¬†We ate like kings and the Vegas 3 had a fucking blast. ¬†Maybe one of these days, you’ll get an invite! ¬†

If you took my picks last week, I wholeheartedly apologize. ¬†The Pats shit the bed, the overs whiffed, the Giants were god awful, and the Rams destroyed that under themselves. ¬†New week, new picks! ¬†But first, remember that Comics Watching Comics is on Amazon Video! ¬†Season 2 has just gone up and t-shirts are for sale. ¬†To get one, contact me through the site. ¬†I’m still working on a credit card link so bear with me. ¬†I’m taking PayPal for the shirts which also accepts credit cards.

I’ll be goddamned if the Patriots don’t rebound in a big way in New Orleans this weekend. ¬†The Pats have been off for 10 days to let this stew in their cheating brains. ¬†Bellichek probably cut 4 guys on defense for letting the rookie RB, Hunt (Guess who sat him in TWO fantasy leagues. ¬†At least I won 1 of them), stampede all over them. ¬†You don’t think he’s had time to scheme against the Saints and shut down Brees; like the Vikings did on Monday night? ¬†I don’t care Amendola is out, this is a statement game. ¬†Pats are 8-1 ATS on the road of their last 9. ¬†You can even take the over as when the Saints and Pats play, the over hits 7/9 times. ¬†But I see Brady going into pure “fuck you” mode and they’re covering, come hell or high water, which is also a highly overrated film.

Take the Pats -6.5

Arizona looked nothing special against Detroit last week. ¬†They also lost arguably the top RB for at least 2 months. ¬†Indy is at home and I don’t see AZ covering. ¬†AZ is 3-8 ATS out of their last 11. ¬†2-5 ATS on the road. ¬†They look old and the number (7) is right.

Take the Colts +7

I had these fuckers as part as an over last week and they didn’t hold up their end. ¬†I do think that the Skins are due for a win and the Rams blowing out the Colts shouldn’t scare anyone. ¬†Stats? ¬†Sure. ¬†Skins 4-0 ATS after a loss. ¬†10-5 ATS in their last 15. ¬†9-2 ATS on the road in their last 11. ¬†Rams don’t have any kind of home field advantage. ¬†Cousins rebounds nicely as everyone’s favorite politically incorrect team (Who cares about team names, go save people in hurricane areas instead of worry about that shit?) wins outright.

Take the Skins +2.5

Miami just had their bye earlier than they wanted. ¬†Which also means they’ve had well over a week to plan against the Chargers. ¬†You watch that Chargers game? ¬†I did, from a blackjack table at the Cosmopolitan hotel while handing my chips slowly over to a dealer who was missing a tooth. ¬†The Broncos should’ve covered that game with ease if it weren’t for a couple of weird plays. ¬†And now SD is home this week against the Dolphins. Remind you, they’re now playing in a new (soccer) stadium in a new city where no one gives 2 shits about NFL football. ¬†So no home field advantage. ¬†Some may argue Miami may be rusty but I’m going to say they come bursting out at the seams. ¬†Some stats, why the hell not? ¬†Mia 8-3-1 in last 12 ATS. ¬†4-2 ATS on the road. ¬†And 8/9 games SD has played Mia has resulted in an under. ¬†

Take Mia +3.5 and the under 45.5

I didn’t see much of the GB game as I didn’t have any money on it and apparently, I didn’t miss much. ¬†I saw some of the Atlanta game and I saw the Bears make a late run at them, covering and almost winning. ¬†But here’s what I do know: both teams score a shitload. ¬†ATL at home hits the over 5/5. ¬†GB is 7/8 hitting the over. ¬†GB and ATL have hit the over 9/13. ¬†GB has hit the over 4/6 when playing in ATL. ¬†That’s enough for me. ¬†This game has 31-28 written all over it. ¬†

Take GB over 56

And now for the lock of the week: Seattle lost in GB last week and now they’re home against a hapless Niners team. ¬†A divisional rival in their building reeks of trouble. ¬†A divisional rival after a loss is even more trouble. ¬†And yet again, more stats to prove it. ¬†Sea is 5-0 ATS vs SF. ¬†Sea is 11-1 ATS vs SF. SF is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16. ¬†2-7-1 ATS on the road. ¬†14 is a big number but do you see McCown doing much against an angry Seattle D? ¬†I sure as fuck don’t.

Take Sea -14