I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october. 2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen. Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did. And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy: Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1. Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters. So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.
The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs. So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours. Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts. Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA. Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home. I think Oak +7 is a play
But I like the LA under 42 better.
My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house. Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game. In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract. It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple. But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can. This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona. Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable. I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year. Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road. Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall. Third time’s the charm.
Take the Skins -3
Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears. Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1. The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings. I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense. Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota. John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out. Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs. Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi. The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points. Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.
I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half. I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.
In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane. This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once. The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center. And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….
Lay -5 and grab the Colts.
I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week. Why? The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall. But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22. And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7. No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either. Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.
Take Bal over 40
In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help. Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6. They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS. And why doth thou give a dookie about this game? Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons. And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason. Yes, Seattle is healthier. But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS. I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.
Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points.
The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think. The Saints need this game to ensure a home game. The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit. Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall. 5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO. Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under. This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos. But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…
Goes under 48.5
Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…
I’m back from Vegas and my liver wishes I had just shot in and left it to die in the desert. We ate like kings and the Vegas 3 had a fucking blast. Maybe one of these days, you’ll get an invite!
If you took my picks last week, I wholeheartedly apologize. The Pats shit the bed, the overs whiffed, the Giants were god awful, and the Rams destroyed that under themselves. New week, new picks! But first, remember that Comics Watching Comics is on Amazon Video! Season 2 has just gone up and t-shirts are for sale. To get one, contact me through the site. I’m still working on a credit card link so bear with me. I’m taking PayPal for the shirts which also accepts credit cards.
I’ll be goddamned if the Patriots don’t rebound in a big way in New Orleans this weekend. The Pats have been off for 10 days to let this stew in their cheating brains. Bellichek probably cut 4 guys on defense for letting the rookie RB, Hunt (Guess who sat him in TWO fantasy leagues. At least I won 1 of them), stampede all over them. You don’t think he’s had time to scheme against the Saints and shut down Brees; like the Vikings did on Monday night? I don’t care Amendola is out, this is a statement game. Pats are 8-1 ATS on the road of their last 9. You can even take the over as when the Saints and Pats play, the over hits 7/9 times. But I see Brady going into pure “fuck you” mode and they’re covering, come hell or high water, which is also a highly overrated film.
Take the Pats -6.5
Arizona looked nothing special against Detroit last week. They also lost arguably the top RB for at least 2 months. Indy is at home and I don’t see AZ covering. AZ is 3-8 ATS out of their last 11. 2-5 ATS on the road. They look old and the number (7) is right.
Take the Colts +7
I had these fuckers as part as an over last week and they didn’t hold up their end. I do think that the Skins are due for a win and the Rams blowing out the Colts shouldn’t scare anyone. Stats? Sure. Skins 4-0 ATS after a loss. 10-5 ATS in their last 15. 9-2 ATS on the road in their last 11. Rams don’t have any kind of home field advantage. Cousins rebounds nicely as everyone’s favorite politically incorrect team (Who cares about team names, go save people in hurricane areas instead of worry about that shit?) wins outright.
Take the Skins +2.5
Miami just had their bye earlier than they wanted. Which also means they’ve had well over a week to plan against the Chargers. You watch that Chargers game? I did, from a blackjack table at the Cosmopolitan hotel while handing my chips slowly over to a dealer who was missing a tooth. The Broncos should’ve covered that game with ease if it weren’t for a couple of weird plays. And now SD is home this week against the Dolphins. Remind you, they’re now playing in a new (soccer) stadium in a new city where no one gives 2 shits about NFL football. So no home field advantage. Some may argue Miami may be rusty but I’m going to say they come bursting out at the seams. Some stats, why the hell not? Mia 8-3-1 in last 12 ATS. 4-2 ATS on the road. And 8/9 games SD has played Mia has resulted in an under.
Take Mia +3.5 and the under 45.5
I didn’t see much of the GB game as I didn’t have any money on it and apparently, I didn’t miss much. I saw some of the Atlanta game and I saw the Bears make a late run at them, covering and almost winning. But here’s what I do know: both teams score a shitload. ATL at home hits the over 5/5. GB is 7/8 hitting the over. GB and ATL have hit the over 9/13. GB has hit the over 4/6 when playing in ATL. That’s enough for me. This game has 31-28 written all over it.
Take GB over 56
And now for the lock of the week: Seattle lost in GB last week and now they’re home against a hapless Niners team. A divisional rival in their building reeks of trouble. A divisional rival after a loss is even more trouble. And yet again, more stats to prove it. Sea is 5-0 ATS vs SF. Sea is 11-1 ATS vs SF. SF is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16. 2-7-1 ATS on the road. 14 is a big number but do you see McCown doing much against an angry Seattle D? I sure as fuck don’t.
Take Sea -14