NFL Picks Week 2 Against the Spread

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Guttentag!  I’m back from Vegas after a 5-3 weekend: hitting Denver under, Packers, Vikings under, Pats under, and Baltimore.  Lost the KC under, Dal/Sea teaser (Dalton throw for over 400 yds in Seattle???), and Denver.  This year, we’re still doing the picks with the Cookie Monster on Facebook but I’m not giving you all of my picks.  I’ll give you some of the ones I really like but I’m saving those for the Patreon account.  Yes, I’ve sold out because A) We need seed money to promote Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and B) I was 61% against the spread last year.  I made you a lot of money last year, why the hell can’t I get paid for my services?  So for $50 a week, you get my locks of the week.  And that money goes right back into Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  If you want fantasy football advice or we’ll do your DFS game, here is the link for the Patreon info:  https://www.patreon.com/fantaryfootballjibberjabber

Venmo me @Kevin-Gootee $50 and I’ll give you my locks of the week.  I’ll post the screenshot of my picks from previous week so you can verify that I’m telling the truth.  And here are 3 picks I’m liking this week.

Cluster injuries for Chargers.  Derwin James out, Mike Williams is a ?, Russel Okun out, and Hunter Henry is out. Chargers 2-4 SU in Det.  West coast team coming east for a 1pm game after playing OT on Sunday.  Houston 11-4 SU in last 15, 4-1 SU home vs Jax,  Jax 1-4 ATS, 2-11 SU, 2-8 SU vs Hou, 1-4 SU in Hou. Detroit also played to a tie against Arizona.  Not happy if you’re a Lions fan but happy if you have AZ under 5 for the year as I do!  Backup QB Gardner Minshew (perfect name for a yacht club or rowing crew guy) is back under center after looking respectful, albeit against a porous KC defense.  Houston just coming off a monday night heartbreaker after losing via the last second field goal shall come home and rebound.  If they can’t win by 2 or more, they should bring in Dr Watson from Sherlock Holmes and fire Deshaun Watson.

Teaser: 7 point teaser Houston down to -2 and Detroit +9.5

Because Sam Darnold must have licked a subway pole to get mono or he’s making out with women on the Hampton Jitney, I’m taking the Brownies.  If Baker Mayfield wants to earn some of that hype, he better win and cover after getting blown out.  Some stats to back up my argument. Jets are 2-8-1 in last 11 and 1-10 SU.  Jets 4-11-1 vs AFC.  Jets 6/9 under VS Cle and 6/9 in September and 4/6 on a Monday.  Just remember, all Odell Beckham Jr has to do is take that 350k watch and reflect the stadium lights into the eyes of the CB in front of him.  

Cle -6.5

Atlanta is 9-1 SU in week 2 games.  Big fact.  Atlanta got embarrassed last week against Minnesota (had the under, you’re welcome) and now they’re home.  Yes 2-5 at home and 2-7 ATS but the Eagles lost Malik Jackson and rallied to beat the Skins.  BUT PHILLY JUST LET CASE KEENUM THROW FOR 385 YDS AGAINST THEM.  Teasing up the Falcons to 8 is a key number and I highly doubt they lose by more than a TD.  Denver up to 8.5 because who knows the Bears better than Vic Fangio?  Den 6-0 SU vs NFC north.  Trubisky in Denver? No thank you.

6 points teaser: Den to +8.5, ATL to +8.

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NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

NFL Picks ATS Week 14

Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table.  To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops.  Colts got shut out by the Jags,  Ooops.  Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops.  Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB.  47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs.  And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends.  Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1.  The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss.  But of late:  Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB.  And rain for some of the day as well.  Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under.  This one sings out to me  so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5 
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs?  Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun.  Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl.  Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today?  Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job.  That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year.  “Another loss?  Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.”  ATL 1-5 ATS of late.  Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable.  I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
GB -3.5
What does Kansas City not do well?  Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill?  True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting.  THEY DON’T.  With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time.  And what does running the ball do?  Runs the clock.  Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL.  So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to.  BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today.  Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home,  Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday?  Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2.  And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them.  And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG.  Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed.  Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak,  Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS.  Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS.  Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS.  Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game.  We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good.  The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits.  
Oak +10.5
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky.  And I’ve bet them during that streak.  But today, that streak is likely to end.  Remember the last time these teams played?  I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it.  Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG.  Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy.  Here’s a larger sample size:  Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston.  Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern.  Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
  
Colts +4.5
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3.  How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3?  Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful.  Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late.  On a neutral field, these teams are even?  Wow, I just don’t see it.  I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats.  I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle.  And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!
Seahawks -3

NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

NFL ATS picks for Conference Championship weekend

Drink em if you got em, folks.  This is the real last week of the NFL season as we all know the Super Bowl is more pageantry than game.  This is the last week we get to bet on more than 1 NFL game so it’s bittersweet as it’s the beginning of the end of football.  And then after the Super Bowl, we ahead into the great abyss.  Or as I call it, Tera Patrick’s gash.  3-4 last week, 6-4 overall.  I snuck out the Pats over, thanked Christ the Eagles missed the PAT to get my first half under, and had a puckered up asshole as Vikes late TD didn’t kick the PAT to cover the Saints.  Lost Pitt, the under, Vikes under, and the Falcons.  We all watched Matt Ryan pull off his best “Crohn’s disease patient fucking a woman on his period” impression: shitting his pants in the red zone.  I give that joke a 6.5.

Tom Brady was hurt in practice when a teammate’s helmet accidentally smashed in his hand.  Or so the “liberal media” would want you to think.  I’m sure he really got the injury when one of Giselle’s hooves crushed his hand when he tried reaching for a candy bar.  Jacksonville comes in after a stunning win in Pittsburgh where they dropped 21 on Pitt faster than a Vietnamese black jack dealer in Vegas.  Let’s talk stats: Jacksonville is on its 2nd road game in 3 weeks while the Pats have slept in their own beds for a month.  And teams that put up 40+ in the playoffs the previous week (Jags)? 4-25-1 ATS.  Jags are 2-5 vs NE, 1-5 in NE.  Pats are 6-0 ATS at home, 10-1 of their last 11.  Blake Bortles passer rating is fucking TERRIBLE when they’re behind, 55 QBR.  Do you think the Pats are going to let them get ahead?  They’re going to take Leonard Fournette out early and make Blake Bortles beat them.  Btw, Bortles averaging 151 passing yds and with a 53% completion rate. And do you think the Patriots are going to take their foot off the gas?  Nope.  They’ve outscored their opponents in the playoffs, 80-25 in the 2nd half in the last 4 playoff games. 

Let’s talk over/under.  Pats have hit the under 9/13 but 8/11 over at home.  Jaguars vs Patriots are under 4/6 times as well as 4/6 under in NE.  

The facts are here: Take the Patriots -7.5 and under 46.5

This last game had me debating for the entire week.  The Vikings are good on the road, the Eagles are good at home.  Both teams could have EASILY lost last week.  Both teams are playing with house money as their backup QBs haven’t flinched, yet.  We all know my distaste for that goddamn awful town.  Nick Foles is one of the worst in 3rd and long situations.  Believe it or not, the Vikings D is better on the road than at home (329 yds allowed vs 387 at home) and the Vikes D is top 5 against the run.  But the Eagles D has also been fantastic, 20 points allowed in 3 games.  Philly has been 2-4 ATS and under 6/6. Also 5/6 under at home.  

I’m still not sure but leaning Vikings -3 and under 38.5.  I’m definitely jumping on the Vikes if it gets to 2.5.

Happy gambling and don’t be afraid to grab the first half unders again.  

NFL Divisional Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

I’ll take my usual bow at the beginning of the column and say yet again, another fantastic week for Herr Gootee.  3-0 last week as the Jax first half under, Saints over, and KC under (thought I had a clenched asshole for the last hour of that game) all came in to cover.  This week, I think it’s a harder crop of games as the numbers are a bit wonky.  Does Tom Brady and the Pats take all the bulletin board material (Discourse in the Pats locker room and Titans safety talking shit) and go into pure, “fuck you” mode?   Do the Vikings take one more step to becoming the first team in a Super Bowl that hosts the game?  Do Eagle fans continue their streak of shitting the bed while their white trash, vile fans create a riot after their backup QB loses the game?  I’ll bet the ranch and your ranch that they’ll do that if Philly loses well because, a tiger doesn’t change his stripes.  Onto the picks.

The aforementioned white trash wasteland known as Philadelphia hosts the red hot (yes, you read that right) Atlanta Falcons at the Stink this weekend.  Atlanta has had to damn near win out while Philly has been on autopilot for 3 weeks, including a bye.  But, in the 2 games Philly has played, they’ve combined for 19 points.  Yes, one was meaningless in week 17 but not a good look when you’re prepping for the playoffs, especially with a backup QB.  The line is 3 so let’s break that down: Home field is 3 points so what this is saying to me is that on a neutral field Matt Ryan and Nick Foles are considered even?  Get the fuck out of here.  Yes, I know it’s a dome team out in the cold where those teams are 4-24 in January.  And I know Atlanta has been on the road for 4/5 of their last games.  But the Atlanta defense can hold down NICK FOLES.  And can you say with confidence that you’re going to put money.  On Nick Foles.  In a playoff game?

I think people are afraid to call Philly a paper tiger as there has never been #1 seed that’s an underdog.  But, let’s also look at numbers: Atlanta under, 5/5.  4/5 under on the road. 9/12 under against Philly and 5/7 under in Philly.  Lastly, Philly has been under in 5/7. Let’s also add that it’s cold there today in the city that considers grade D shaved meat with synthetic cheese a “gourmet experience.”  I think both teams start off slow and try to figure each other out so…

I took first half under 20 and I’ll buy the .5 to get Atlanta at -2.5

Tom Brady is butthurt that Jimmy Garrapolo could have been a threat to his legacy so he had him shipped off.  This is some real Sopranos shit here; didn’t Tony debate about having Christopher knocked off because he also viewed him as a threat?  Don’t flood my inbox with corrections because I haven’t watched the show since it unceremoniously ended in one of the laziest endings ever written.  I know Montana was getting upset that Steve Young was about to and did take his job.  But only time will tell if Jimmy G meets up to everyone’s lofty expectations.  And why does every male sportscaster have to swoon about his looks.  Guys, calm down with that.  Women went gaga over Derek Jeter.  I went gaga because he delivered clutch hits in October so let’s leave it at that.  

The 13.5 is quite lofty and the Pats rarely get backdoored (go ahead and insert your lazy butt sex reference in here, I’m trying to bang out this column before I appear on a podcast to talk about Comics Watching Comics for the umpteenth time this week.  Fuck it, I’ll shoehorn a plug into my own column.)  The Pats have outscored opponents in the 2nd half, 66-18, in their last 3 playoff games.  Meaning they don’t take the foot off the gas.  BUT the Pats against the run are like Alabama fans in SAT scores, dead last.  Derrick Henry ran all over the Chiefs so expect the Pats to key in on him.  That leaves Corey Davis, Erick Decker, and Delanie Walker left as the main options for Marcus Mariota.  Do any of them get your dick hard?  Me neither but I think the Titans can chase points and keep it closer and make Brady throw it late in the game; facing the Titans 24th ranked pass D.  But would I be shocked if this game ends up 35-14?  Nope.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying the Pats are 7/10 over at home, I’m saying Tenn in NE has been over 6/7.  I’m saying Tenn and NE has gone over 7/10 at home.

Pats/Titans over 48 is the play.

Pittsburgh gets a chance to redeem themselves after Ben gave it up more than a black family at a high school graduation.  Jesus, I wish my parents hooted and yelled that loud.  The only thing they yelled was, “Get a fucking job because interns don’t get paid shit.”  This next handicap is really based on the eye test and some stats.  Blake Bortles was fucking ghastly last week, having more rushing yards than throwing yards.  At home.  In 60 degree weather.  Only time that’s ever happened is when I played as Michael Vick in Madden.  And this was against a mediocre Bills defense.  So what do you think is going to happen when he’s in Pittsburgh.  In 20 degree weather.  Facing a team with a solid pass rush.  Yeah, not much.  

I see both teams running the ball as each team’s rush defense isn’t stellar.  In fact, Jax run d is 30th!  Plus, I think they’ll want to slowly dip their toes in the water and not air it out early as Bortles is always a nanosecond from going full Bortles.  And Ben got picked 5 times.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Jax is surprisingly successful in Pittsburgh, 12-5 and recently 4-1 ATS.  Pitt is 1-5 of late and 1-4 at home.  Again, the eye test screams Pitt but they’ve also been known to play to the level of their competition.  Jax under has hit 4/6 on the road and 15/23.  Pitt at home has gone over 5/6 and 5/7 recently.  I think Pitt is going to win and probably cover as well as go under but I’m going to go with my gut when I put my money down.

And my gut says take the first half under again.  I don’t have a number yet but I’m taking it.

Lastly, the Saints head to Minnesota where everyone and their mothers love the Vikings. And why not?  The numbers of the Vikings have been insanely 1 sided.  Vikes are 11-4-1 ATS and I’ve made a ton of money betting on them.  They have a great defense: 276 ypg average, 10.6 pig, and +137 yds over an opponent at home.  But the Saints (who I have to win the NFC at 6/1) despite being 1-4 ATS of late, do have some success on the road, 12-5-1 on the road ATS.  They are 2-4 in Minnesota, and 2-7 against Minnesota.  If this game gets to 6 or more, I may take it.  I may take the over 48 as recently, 4/6 have gone over and 6/7 over in Minnesota.  BUT the Saints are under 4/6 on the road.  Man, so many conflicting stats.  I just may see how I do and then go on my gut.  But there’s one stat that stares at me square in the eyes, THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAME THAT CASE KEENUM HAS PLAYED IN.

Probably the over and possibly the Saints…depending on the numbers.

NFL Wild Card Weekend 2018 Picks ATS

5-2 last week so back on the winning track for your favorite handicapper.  Wish I would’ve taken my own advice and added on the Bengals and Cardinals.  It’s the perfect weekend to watch the games as it’s pretty goddamn cold with this cyclone bomb at hand.  Cyclone Bomb sounds like a finishing move in Mortal Kombat or a perfect description when I ate a piece of uncooked chicken last week.  Last year, Wild Card weekend was crazy as all the favorites covered.  Will the same occur this year?  Let’s see:

Kansas City hosts Tennessee, who has looked very unremarkable the past few weeks.  Tennessee is 5-12-5 ATS on the road but 5-1 in KC.  KC has seemed to get their offense together while the Titans offense has been as lively as another Tennessee legend, Pat Summit.  Hint: she’s dead.  No DeMarco Murray but that doesn’t matter because he’s been awful.  9 is a lot of points and Alex Smith SHOULD be able to cover this.  Let’s all reminisce how Alex Smith was the first overall pick and selected before…Aaron Rodgers.  Ok, memory break over.  I do not have an idea where to go team wise but I sure have made a lot of money betting on the Chiefs under at home.  Titans have gone under in 4/6 as well as 4/6 on the road.  KC has going under 6/8 and and 5/6 at home.  That’s all the info I need to

Take KC under 45

Buffalo squeaked in because the Ravens 4th quarter defense disappeared like Philadelphia teams during a championship parade.  Shady McCoy has been upgraded to probable so he’s pretty much a go.  Do I trust Buffalo on the road with no WR?  No.  Do I trust Blake Bortles who of late, has been not good.  And now he’s home in the first playoff game for the Jaguars since I was in college.  Playing Goldeneye.  Womanizing.  Playing Beer Pong.  Sigh, those were the days.  This under is quite low, 39.5  But I am going to try some different logic.  The Jags will be running the ball as that’s what they’re good at and the Bills run defense is not.  The Bills will be running because the Jags run D isn’t so hot either.  I think Doug Marrone will want to make keep a leash on Bortles and give him the chance to turn the ball over early.  I think both teams come out conservatively so I went and took…

First half Jacksonville under 19.5

Lastly, my lock of the week.  If you’ve consistently read this column, thanks to all 23 of you.  And you’ll know that I love the Saints at home.  You know what I love even more than the Saints at home?  Blowjobs, duh.  And a ton of Denise Richards naked photos circa 1997.  Also, I love the Saints over at home.  Saints are 15/21 over at home.  And when the Saints play Carolina, the over hits 6/7.  Also, when the Saints play Carolina at home, the over hits 6/7.  Carolina is 5/7 in hitting the over.  The Saints hung 30+ on Carolina both times they played them.  I would take the Saints if it got down to 6.5 but for now, I LOVE….

The Saints over 48.5