NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

NFL week 16 picks ATS

Merry Christmas everyone and let’s dig yourself out of the credit card holes for Christmas presents. Last week, 3-2 to get back on the winning side. I hit the Saints in the first leg of a teaser and the Bucs in another leg of a second teaser. I lost with the Cardinals -5 yesterday as they were flatter than an A cup against a 3rd string QB. 0-1 to start this week, 48-40 YTD which is 55% for the season, still in the black!

I absolutely love the Bears this week, which is something I thought I would NEVER say anytime soon. When Trubisky and Montgomery have played together this season, they’re putting up 30 ppg. Bears have scored 69 points in 2 games which takes the Jets about a month to do. And they’re playing Jacksonville, who unlike the aforementioned AAA football team of NY, won’t fuck up the #1 pick. Jax 4-8 ATS of late, 0-10 SU of late. They’re also 0-6 SU at home. Bears are 2-6 ATS of late but 4-2 ATS against Jacksonville. And the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot and well as Trubisky is fighting for a job. This has PRIME teaser taste to it and that’s exactly what I did here.

First leg of teaser, Bears -1.5

Last week, the Rams were as embarrassing as Dr. Fauci’s first pitch in the World Series. If there’s anyone to back after a loss, it’s the Rams: 13-5 ATS after a loss. 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Also, the Rams 12-5 ATS on the road. Rams are 5-2 against Sea and average 33 ppg against them. Seattle 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU. And we’re going to make this an even safer play. McVay is a covering machine against Seattle, I see no difference here.

Second leg of teaser Rams +7.5

The Chiefs aren’t covering games AT ALL. Pushed last week against the Saints and I believe their last 5 wins have been by no more than 6. They get up and then take their foot off the gas pedal. Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS of late but 9-0 SU, 12-1 SU at home. All 1-4 SU of late, 3-6 SU in KC. But here’s a stat that jumped out at me: Matt Ryan as a double digit dog is 5-1 ATS. And the Chiefs D is 32nd in RZ defense. Tyreek Hill will be on a snap count so having their home run hitter limited is another bullet I have. Here’s hoping the Chiefs D does Tera Patrick used to do for many moons, let strangers in her backdoor.

First leg of the teaser Falcons +16.5

A lot of people love Green Bay at home where they’ve been a covering machine. And I have made a TON of money this year teasing GB down but you may have noticed if you’re betting at the regular number, they’re not covering SHIT. 2-4 ATS of late but 6-1 SU and 12-1 SU at home. It’s snowing all day in GB and a high of 28. Green Bay is 21st against the run and you know they’ll be dialing up Derrick Henry and controlling the clock. Rodgers is great in the snow but I don’t see him winning by a TD. Hell, they might even lose. Tenn is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Also, 4-1 SU against GB and 10-2 SU on the road. Everyone loves backing the Pack at home but you’d better to it on the ML and not lay the 3.5…

Second leg of teaser Titans +9

Thank Christ I didn’t take the Pittsburgh game monday night but that’s going to play a role into this next pick. Cincy obviously blew their load on monday night and now they face a Texans team who is better than their record as well as got the short shrift on some games. See: Colts games this season. Now they’re home against the Bengals and the time is right to fire in. I know Hou is 5-10 ATS of late, 4-11 SU. And Cincy is equally as bad: 2-4 ATS of late, 1-5 SU. And they’re 2-8 ATS against Texans, 1-8 SU. Also, 0-5 SU on the road.

This is the 2nd leg of the 7 pt, TB teaser where the first leg was the Saints. Houston down to a pick’em

Gotta have a total for you this week so here it goes, another teaser??!!! Indy has been over 7/10 of late but those are against awful defenses. Pittsburgh 5/7 under of late and they’re under fire for losing 3 straight in sloppy fashion. Indy had a great defense and they get Buckner back. I don’t see a crazy amount of scoring so let’s take the number to:

Pitt under 50.5

Chargers 8/11 over of late. I know they’ve gone under a lot of late: 4/6 under vs Denver, 9/13 at home, and 7/7 home against Denver. But Denver D is insanely porous and now Bradley Chubb is out. Joey Bosa is out as well as a couple of other defenders for the Chargers. We know Herbert can put up points and Lock had his moments this year. I think they can combine for…

2nd leg of the teaser, Chargers over down to 43

Lastly, we’ve got one more leg of a teaser to fill and boy, I love this one. The Bills have been the cuckholded boyfriend in the AFC east to the Pats since I wore sweater vests and puka shell necklaces. But now, the tables are turning/have turned. I think the Bills come out and shove a roman candle in Bellichick’s ass for 20 years worth of beatings. Bills are 6-0 ATS of late, 7-1 SU. The Pats are done and sticking with Cam which no one can explain. Bills with a few extra days rest and plenty of motivation to get that 2 seed. The ONLY thing the Pats have in their corner besides their coach is some quasi-recent success against the Bills: 6-2 ATS vs NE, 7-1 SU. But those go past the Josh Allen era and I’m more than happy to take 6 points and make this virtually a pick em.

2nd leg of the Saints teaser, Bills -1

Week 14 NFL picks ATS 12/12/20

If you couldn’t tell, I’m PSYCHED to see Gutting the Sacred Cow is now #15 on iTunes film review!!! WOW

I guess the pic of Ben Affleck palming J-Lo’s ass was the lucky charm I needed! An OUSTANDING 5-1-1 last week. The only loss was can you believe the fucking Steelers couldn’t win outright at home against the Skins? Teased that down to -1 but man, what a kick to the balls. Can’t complain when you on the other hand, have Oakland throw up a bomb to get the backdoor cover to push on another teaser. And the Giants under, Rams and Browns… barely broke a sweat in those games. I took the Rams und-AH on Thursday night as well, pushing the yearly total to 44-34-3 (56%) for the year. Back on track to help pay for those Christmas or whatever you celebrate presents.

Cardinals have been REALLY bad of late and that’s because for whatever the reason, Kyler Murray isn’t running. Rams kept him contained last week and that shoulder must be a bit balky. Now they fly east for a 1pm game against my NY Giants who FLOORED myself and the world by beating Seattle in Seattle with a backup QB. Daniel Jones was a full participant at practice Friday so I assume he’s a go. More stats for you: Cardinals 1-6 ATS of late and yet again, that 1 win was the hail mary to beat Buffalo. Historical numbers point to AZ as they’re 6-1 in NY and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS but that goes back how many QBs ago? And Giants are 5-1 ATS of late, the 1 ATS loss was the Bengals. They COVER as dogs and they’re 4-1 SU of late. Giants d has 20 points or fewer in 4 straight games (all wins), 3rd in takeaways, 8th in sacks, 10th in overall defense. There are a lot of games that need teasing this week so I had to partner this up with someone. I jumped on when it was 3, it’s now 2. JUST to be on the safe side but I do like them straight up, MAYBE even on the money line.

Giants +9 for teaser leg number 1.

What else can I tease besides all you people who think A Christmas Story is a good movie? It’s fucking terrible and this week on Gutting the Sacred Cow Podcast; I depants it, run it through a shredder, and pour it into a bathtub filled with lye. Let’s pick on the Eagles (yet again) starting a rookie QB. They’re not scoring points with Hurts making his NFL debut and of late, they’ve been awful. 6/6 have gone under, 4/5 vs NO, 11/13 at home. Saints have went under 5/5 of late and 4/5 against NFC.

Saints under 49.5 leg number 2

Two teams that have garbage defenses. Two teams that have excel in garbage time scoring. Utah, gimme 2! I couldn’t think of something else to start with 2 so you get one of the best movie quotes of all time. But let’s look at some no brainers stats. Titans 5/6 over of late, 5/6 on the road. 9-2-1 over out of 11, 18-3-1 over out of 22. Titans have 4 games they scored 35 or more in. Facing a Jags defense that is a Phantom Menace level of awful: dead last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, 2nd to last in rushing yards allowed. Jags 29th in points allowed. Jags over 7/10 against Tenn and 10/14 vs AFC. Say no more.

Titans over 52.5

The Colts are facing the Raiders this week who A) are missing key players on defense and B) already have the 29th ranked defense for sacks as 28th in scoring defense. And the Colts defense hasn’t been as lights out as it was earlier on: 17, 31, 45, and 20 points allowed. Colts have gone over 6/8 and 4/5 in Vegas/Oakland, 7/10 against AFC. Vegas over 9/12 and 4/5 at home. Josh Jacobs is questionable and Devonta Booker did whogatz against the goddamn Jets defense. They’ll have to air it out and I’m spot starting Rivers tomorrow in fantasy playoffs. 51.5 is the current number but I said let’s have less to sweat out.

1st leg of a teaser Colts over 45.5

Anthony Lynn and Donald Trump will be holding hands along with Adam Gase in the unemployment line sooner than later. But 1 thing you can bank on; after getting your doors blown off, NFL teams USUALLY respond with a resounding effort. And yours truly told you to take the Pats last week in a cakewalk 45-0 blowout. Enter the Atlanta Falcons. 30th in QB rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards, and 32nd to QB rushing TDs. Oh yeah, no Julio Jones either. Now, numbers do favor ATL: 7-2 ATS on the road, 6-0 SU in LAC. Chargers 0-6 ATS of late; 1-4 ATS and 1-5 SU at home. Now I know Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee but the Chargers HAVE to answer back, especially Herbert against a defense that’s worse than Police Academy: Mission to Moscow. Yes, they made it. Yes, it’s terrible and I bailed after 15 minutes. Like I said, Anthony Lynn is like the dealer DeNiro fired for incompetence in Casino. But if they don’t answer the bell after that gang rape last week, they might as well fire him Monday. But let’s REALLY help our cause out and…

2nd leg of the teaser: Chargers to +7.5

The new car smell that came when the Detroit Lions fired Patricia is over. Aaron Rodgers comes in and boy, he’s dealing this year. Everyone who gambled on him in fantasy looks like a genius. GB 8-4 ATS and 4-1 SU of late. I know GB has had troubles in Detroit, 1-6 ATS, but probably no Golladay and Swift again. Detroit 2-4 ATS and 5-15 SU of late. I’m seeing GB between laying between 8-9 points but I got lucky and jumped on when it was 7.5. But juuuuuust in case Detroit may keep it close and try to backdoor…

1st leg of teaser: GB -1.5 And if I were you, I’d tease it to -2.5 if possible; even lay the extra vig for a 7 pt teaser.

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Philadelphia Eagles and winning money. Did it last week and now they finally sit Carson Wentz (from MVP to 25 million dollar albatross, HAHAHAHA!) and bring in Jalen Hurts. And what a time to do so; against the TOP RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL? Doug Pederson, if anything, is a goddamn masochist. Saints 5-0 ATS, 9-0 SU of late. Tell me more about Philly besides a town of people that made up a word, jawn, that’s more retarded than their chants. First time I heard that, I thought they were making a Suzyn Waldman reference. Deeper cut, go google it. NO is 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU in Philly, and 5-0 SU on the road. Philly 4-9 ATS of late and now with a rookie QB facing #1 defense in the last month, 3rd in sacks, 44 points allowed in the last 5 games, and the Saints have allowed TWO touchdowns in FIVE games. Oh yeah, they also had the #2 offense in the last month. Since we need to pair the GB game with someone, let’s make it even easier than those crawdaddy tourist muggers.

2nd leg of teaser, Saints -.5 And I also took the Eagles team total under 18 points for all of the reasons above.

Here’s one that may make you cock your head (you perverts) and say, really? I could be a little off base but the numbers will back this play. We all love the Chiefs since last year but if you’re not teasing them or taking them on the money line, you’ve lost A LOT of money on them of late. They’re 1-4 ATS but 7-0 SU of late as well as 8-0 SU on the road. Lastly, they haven’t won a game by more than SIX points in their last 4 games. Now they go to Miami who has been playing rock solid defense. Miami is an NFL best 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS of late as well as SU. Miami is also 7-2 SU home against KC, WOW! Miami has scored 20 or fewer in their last 3 but that leaky KC defense doesn’t scare anyone. Hell, Denver covered playing the Chiefs last week. I think Miami keeps this close but I’m always afraid of the Chiefs exploding. So maestro, a little extra cushion if you would?

First leg of the teaser Miami +13

And because I love the Saints this week more than my wife (Just kidding honey, these are just jokes that will pay for Christmas presents), I’m pairing the Saints again as part of a teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Saints -.5

And now, the premier matchup of the week. Pittsburgh has looked sloppy the last 2 games and losing to Washington, wow. They’re also down 2 LBs, have injuries on the o-line. This line JUMPED from Pitt -1.5 to Buffalo -1.5 as the sharps pounded this early. Is it recency bias because of the way the Bills grabbed the Niners like a bowling ball and then tossed them out like a parking ticket in a foreign country? Maybe. Steelers are 7-3 ATS of late but they haven’t had a “bye” since week 5. Let’s add this is the Steelers 3rd game in 12 days and they might be on fumes at this point. Buffalo fresh off a bye and 4-1 ATS, 5-1 SU and 5-1 SU at home. Look, I get why you would want to back Pitt, especially since they’re 17-5 ATS off a loss and against a winning team. But my gut says Pitt may be sluggish and the Bills are fired up. The number is sure right to take them…

Bills -1.5

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

NFL Picks Week 2 Against the Spread

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Guttentag!  I’m back from Vegas after a 5-3 weekend: hitting Denver under, Packers, Vikings under, Pats under, and Baltimore.  Lost the KC under, Dal/Sea teaser (Dalton throw for over 400 yds in Seattle???), and Denver.  This year, we’re still doing the picks with the Cookie Monster on Facebook but I’m not giving you all of my picks.  I’ll give you some of the ones I really like but I’m saving those for the Patreon account.  Yes, I’ve sold out because A) We need seed money to promote Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and B) I was 61% against the spread last year.  I made you a lot of money last year, why the hell can’t I get paid for my services?  So for $50 a week, you get my locks of the week.  And that money goes right back into Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  If you want fantasy football advice or we’ll do your DFS game, here is the link for the Patreon info:  https://www.patreon.com/fantaryfootballjibberjabber

Venmo me @Kevin-Gootee $50 and I’ll give you my locks of the week.  I’ll post the screenshot of my picks from previous week so you can verify that I’m telling the truth.  And here are 3 picks I’m liking this week.

Cluster injuries for Chargers.  Derwin James out, Mike Williams is a ?, Russel Okun out, and Hunter Henry is out. Chargers 2-4 SU in Det.  West coast team coming east for a 1pm game after playing OT on Sunday.  Houston 11-4 SU in last 15, 4-1 SU home vs Jax,  Jax 1-4 ATS, 2-11 SU, 2-8 SU vs Hou, 1-4 SU in Hou. Detroit also played to a tie against Arizona.  Not happy if you’re a Lions fan but happy if you have AZ under 5 for the year as I do!  Backup QB Gardner Minshew (perfect name for a yacht club or rowing crew guy) is back under center after looking respectful, albeit against a porous KC defense.  Houston just coming off a monday night heartbreaker after losing via the last second field goal shall come home and rebound.  If they can’t win by 2 or more, they should bring in Dr Watson from Sherlock Holmes and fire Deshaun Watson.

Teaser: 7 point teaser Houston down to -2 and Detroit +9.5

Because Sam Darnold must have licked a subway pole to get mono or he’s making out with women on the Hampton Jitney, I’m taking the Brownies.  If Baker Mayfield wants to earn some of that hype, he better win and cover after getting blown out.  Some stats to back up my argument. Jets are 2-8-1 in last 11 and 1-10 SU.  Jets 4-11-1 vs AFC.  Jets 6/9 under VS Cle and 6/9 in September and 4/6 on a Monday.  Just remember, all Odell Beckham Jr has to do is take that 350k watch and reflect the stadium lights into the eyes of the CB in front of him.  

Cle -6.5

Atlanta is 9-1 SU in week 2 games.  Big fact.  Atlanta got embarrassed last week against Minnesota (had the under, you’re welcome) and now they’re home.  Yes 2-5 at home and 2-7 ATS but the Eagles lost Malik Jackson and rallied to beat the Skins.  BUT PHILLY JUST LET CASE KEENUM THROW FOR 385 YDS AGAINST THEM.  Teasing up the Falcons to 8 is a key number and I highly doubt they lose by more than a TD.  Denver up to 8.5 because who knows the Bears better than Vic Fangio?  Den 6-0 SU vs NFC north.  Trubisky in Denver? No thank you.

6 points teaser: Den to +8.5, ATL to +8.

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

NFL Picks ATS Week 14

Sorry for no column last week as I had an impromptu run to Atlantic City and made a small deposit at their blackjack table.  To recap last week, I took the Saints against the Dallas, Oops.  Colts got shut out by the Jags,  Ooops.  Steelers blew a 2 TD lead, oops.  Hit the Patriots, Rams under, and TB.  47-39 for the year, 55% which is break even for the year with vigs.  And goddamnit, I have some surefire hits this week.-Said by most gamblers trying to get you to call a 900 number but I’m giving you these gems for FREE.
Lock of the week:
Obviously, I love trends.  Tampa and New Orleans burned through a ton of lightbulbs on that scoreboard in week 1.  The Saints also burned a hole in my wallet on the money line as they lost outright, my only week 1 loss.  But of late:  Saints under 5/7, under 4/5 on the road, 14/20 vs TB, 4/5 under in TB.  And rain for some of the day as well.  Every year they play in Tampa, it’s an under.  This one sings out to me  so jump on in, water’s great.
TB under 55.5 
You see Aaron Rodgers lost 350 lbs?  Yeah, Mike McCarthy got fired so Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to carry an elephant on his back while he stands in shotgun.  Yes, I know ATL is 3-0 vs GB of late BUT those games took place in Atl.  Do you really think the Falcons and that awful D is going to travel well to Lambeau where it’s 20ish degrees today?  Arthur Blank gave Dan Quinn the vote of confidence for his job.  That’s either the kiss of death or Quinn can relax and not worry about his job this year.  “Another loss?  Fuck it, I’ll be back next year.”  ATL 1-5 ATS of late.  Julio Jones took it lightly in practice this week and Matt Bryant is questionable.  I HIGHLY doubt GB doesn’t get the job done.
GB -3.5
What does Kansas City not do well?  Feed their head coach salads and make him do work on the treadmill?  True but also they stop the run like Trump stops tweeting.  THEY DON’T.  With Lamar Jackson, they run TWO THIRDS of the time.  And what does running the ball do?  Runs the clock.  Meanwhile, Baltimore allows 2.7 YPC to RBs and have the top defense in the NFL.  So this won’t be the typical track meet we’re used to.  BTW, supposed to be cold in KC today.  Bal under 7/10 of late, 4/5 on the road, 6/7 under when they play in KC, KC under 9/10 at home,  Bal top 5 rushing attack.
Bal under 51.5
Anybody else sour as fuck at the Steelers who fucked up their lock of the week last Sunday?  Pittsburgh at home before the Chargers game with a TWO TOUCHDOWN LEAD: 233-0-2.  And then the Chargers came out the second half, put the Steelers on a pinball machine, and had their way with them.  And then goes out and wins outright with a time expired FG.  Now the Steelers fly 3000 miles to the land of cockfights into Oakland where Ben has viciously shit the bed.  Pitt ATS 2-4 vs Oak, 2-4 in Oak, 1-6 vs oak,  Ben laying double digits on the road, 1-9 ATS.  Ben vs the Raiders 0-6 ATS.  Lastly, when the Steelers are laying 6 or more, 7-18 ATS.  Steelers can easily get caught looking ahead to next week’s Pats game.  We all know Ben’s home and road splits are not good.  The number is right and I believe the Steelers win but not by more than double digits.  
Oak +10.5
Let’s face facts kids, the Texans have won a TON of coin flip games and have been quite lucky.  And I’ve bet them during that streak.  But today, that streak is likely to end.  Remember the last time these teams played?  I had the Colts and these queefs didn’t punt on their own 40 yard line and went for it.  Hou stopped them, made a few plays, and kicked the GW FG.  Indy 4-0-1 ATS in Houston, and the Texans are 3-7-2 vs Indy.  Here’s a larger sample size:  Indy 16-7 SU playing Houston and 4-1 SU in Houston.  Colts just got shut out in Jacksonville so I’m pretty sure that was a major cause for concern.  Again, the Colts don’t have to win but man, I think that number is a perfect spot to bet here.
  
Colts +4.5
And for the finale, I can’t begin to tell you the level of surprise I had when I saw this line opened at 3, went to 3.5, and went back to 3.  How is everyone not jumping on Seattle, at home, laying only 3?  Jesus Christ, we all know Kirk Cousins on the road is awful.  Minn 2-4-1 on road, 5-8-2 of late, 1-4 in Seattle, Sea 6-1-1 of late.  On a neutral field, these teams are even?  Wow, I just don’t see it.  I saw Diggs and Thielen not looking 100% (then again, at this point in the year, who is?) last week against the Pats.  I think that home field is too much for someone like the NFL’s version of Ray Finkle.  And the number is just…too..sweeeeeeeet!
Seahawks -3

NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

NFL ATS picks for Conference Championship weekend

Drink em if you got em, folks.  This is the real last week of the NFL season as we all know the Super Bowl is more pageantry than game.  This is the last week we get to bet on more than 1 NFL game so it’s bittersweet as it’s the beginning of the end of football.  And then after the Super Bowl, we ahead into the great abyss.  Or as I call it, Tera Patrick’s gash.  3-4 last week, 6-4 overall.  I snuck out the Pats over, thanked Christ the Eagles missed the PAT to get my first half under, and had a puckered up asshole as Vikes late TD didn’t kick the PAT to cover the Saints.  Lost Pitt, the under, Vikes under, and the Falcons.  We all watched Matt Ryan pull off his best “Crohn’s disease patient fucking a woman on his period” impression: shitting his pants in the red zone.  I give that joke a 6.5.

Tom Brady was hurt in practice when a teammate’s helmet accidentally smashed in his hand.  Or so the “liberal media” would want you to think.  I’m sure he really got the injury when one of Giselle’s hooves crushed his hand when he tried reaching for a candy bar.  Jacksonville comes in after a stunning win in Pittsburgh where they dropped 21 on Pitt faster than a Vietnamese black jack dealer in Vegas.  Let’s talk stats: Jacksonville is on its 2nd road game in 3 weeks while the Pats have slept in their own beds for a month.  And teams that put up 40+ in the playoffs the previous week (Jags)? 4-25-1 ATS.  Jags are 2-5 vs NE, 1-5 in NE.  Pats are 6-0 ATS at home, 10-1 of their last 11.  Blake Bortles passer rating is fucking TERRIBLE when they’re behind, 55 QBR.  Do you think the Pats are going to let them get ahead?  They’re going to take Leonard Fournette out early and make Blake Bortles beat them.  Btw, Bortles averaging 151 passing yds and with a 53% completion rate. And do you think the Patriots are going to take their foot off the gas?  Nope.  They’ve outscored their opponents in the playoffs, 80-25 in the 2nd half in the last 4 playoff games. 

Let’s talk over/under.  Pats have hit the under 9/13 but 8/11 over at home.  Jaguars vs Patriots are under 4/6 times as well as 4/6 under in NE.  

The facts are here: Take the Patriots -7.5 and under 46.5

This last game had me debating for the entire week.  The Vikings are good on the road, the Eagles are good at home.  Both teams could have EASILY lost last week.  Both teams are playing with house money as their backup QBs haven’t flinched, yet.  We all know my distaste for that goddamn awful town.  Nick Foles is one of the worst in 3rd and long situations.  Believe it or not, the Vikings D is better on the road than at home (329 yds allowed vs 387 at home) and the Vikes D is top 5 against the run.  But the Eagles D has also been fantastic, 20 points allowed in 3 games.  Philly has been 2-4 ATS and under 6/6. Also 5/6 under at home.  

I’m still not sure but leaning Vikings -3 and under 38.5.  I’m definitely jumping on the Vikes if it gets to 2.5.

Happy gambling and don’t be afraid to grab the first half unders again.