I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny. I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week. And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night. What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining. Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year. Which makes me better than most of you at this. And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch! It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm. We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes. So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!
Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them. Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time. Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that. But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS? They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled. Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it? Sold. Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside. Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami. I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans. If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!
Take the Steelers +2
The Rams couldn’t be hotter. But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle. What does LA have trouble with? Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place. Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently. What do the RAMS have trouble doing? Stopping the run. Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week. What does Denver do well? Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack. Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol. Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow?? Yeah, they’re going to run the ball. I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts. The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late. Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home. But Denver is 6/9 under at home. And Den is getting 7, a perfect number. If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.
Take Den +7 and under 50.5
The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad. Like, as bad as that movie, Tag. DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once. Well, right when I turned it off I did. Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life. Then I went back to frowning again. This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home. Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver. Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel? Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me. I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better. But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag. Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again. The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.
Take the Falcons -3.
Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall. They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week. This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game. Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.
I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5 When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points. And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.