1. Bengals over .5 FG in the 1h. We know McPherson has an absolute boot and Taylor will not gamble early in the game, he’s taking the points.
2. Rams score a rushing TD. 3 RBs and don’t be surprised if one of them run it in.
3. LOVE THIS BET every single year: 3Q outscores the 1Q. A rookie coach against a 2nd time superbowl coach will be conservative to start but after halftime, the playbook (like your moms’ legs) get opened up.
4. Over 50 Took this bet immediately after the Rams game ended and one of the times I got the worst of the number. Bengals are 4/5 under of late and Rams (on the road) are 4/5 over but throw those out. Not loving this bet now
5. Over 6.5 punts. Good defense by the Rams so that means 7 punts we need almost 2 a quarter. Not too much to ask.
6. Bengals score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3
7. Rams score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3.
8. Second half outscores the first half.
9. OBJ over 63.5.
10. Rams ML last to score last in the half
11. Bengals +1 1Q
12. Akers over 62.5 rushing yds. Freshest legs of the 3 backs and LA will look to burn clock. Speaking of burning clock.
13. Rams more time of possession.
14. Bengals +10.5/over 42.5 teaser Like this as the best side/total combo
15. Kupp over 102.5 receiving yards.
16. Bengals +4.5 Bengals 7-0 ATS of late, Rams 6-3 ATS. I think the Bengals CAN win but I’m quite confident the Bengals keep it close if they lose.
17. Longest FG made by Cincy. See bet #1
18. Most 1st downs by Rams
19. Burrow over 10.5 rushing yards
20. Opening kickoff is NOT a touchback. These balls are commemorative balls and they’re ROCK HARD according to sources.
21. More sacks by the Rams
22. Mixon over 3.5 receptions. More screen passes can happen under pressure
23. Rams NO 4th down conversion. McVay goes for it but converts only 38% of the time and this is a plus bet? Heidy ho
Last week, your hero got back on track! 5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5. Lost Giants under and Titans. 26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season. Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%. Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm. Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!
And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!
In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes. Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago. Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack. BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted. And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned. Back to the handicap. Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day. But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST. Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore. And we know how these early games usually fair. Raiders/Seattle this year, under. Jags/Ravens last year, under. Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under. Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks. And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs. Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin. C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations. Don’t give me that “family name” argument. How about a LITTLE originality for the kid? Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision. Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go. Some numbers? Sure! Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota. And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground. Where are the points coming from? Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.
Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5
Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon. Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football. Horrendously awkward and zero respect given. Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.” Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has. Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week. Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground. Peyton Barber should have a good game as well. Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks. As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime. Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR. Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year. Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road. Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.
Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.
The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour. Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0. But on the road after a bye, 0-2. Saints also 2-4 SU on the road. Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense. Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph. Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal. Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints. Let’s talk the total which is now 49. Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6. And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under. I can’t tee it up anymore so…
Take Baltimore -3 and under 49. I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.
Last one of the day. I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night. I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point? I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus. Ever see one of those in a porn? Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked. Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you. Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home. Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road. Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again. They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib. No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions. The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER. 52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.
I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny. I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week. And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night. What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining. Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year. Which makes me better than most of you at this. And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch! It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm. We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes. So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!
Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them. Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time. Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that. But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS? They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled. Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it? Sold. Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside. Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami. I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans. If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!
Take the Steelers +2
The Rams couldn’t be hotter. But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle. What does LA have trouble with? Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place. Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently. What do the RAMS have trouble doing? Stopping the run. Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week. What does Denver do well? Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack. Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol. Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow?? Yeah, they’re going to run the ball. I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts. The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late. Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home. But Denver is 6/9 under at home. And Den is getting 7, a perfect number. If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.
Take Den +7 and under 50.5
The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad. Like, as bad as that movie, Tag. DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once. Well, right when I turned it off I did. Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life. Then I went back to frowning again. This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home. Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver. Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel? Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me. I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better. But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag. Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again. The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.
Take the Falcons -3.
Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall. They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week. This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game. Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.
Titans +2.5
I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5 When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points. And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.
Kevin Gootee 