NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL against the spread picks week 15

Maaaan, another week of see-sawing, 2-3 last week and grabbed the Baltimore under this week which got decimated, gross. 45-38 for the year, 53% which is still ahead of the curve. I took GB and Den in a teaser last night which of course, lost. Then I grabbed GB and Miami under which is still in play.

You can make case for either the Pats or Fins and I could buy either of them. Bellichick owns rookie QBs, Miami own the banged up Patriots. But I’ll take the road less traveled: Pats 5/5 Under, 5/7 under. Miami under 4/6, 5/7 against AFC, 4/6 AFC east. The Patriots offense has recorded 220, 291 and 179 total yards the past three games. In the first Patriots-Dolphins meeting in Week 1, the teams totaled 32 points, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and healthy WRs and RBs for Miami. Pats missing RBs, WRs, and Geisicki, Pats are missing anything resembling a playmaker on offense. We’re teasing someone else so might as well give ourselves more of a cushion.

Teaser leg #1 Miami under 47.5

And here, I apologize to all of you, and myself, for talking us into teasing the Giants who got blown out last week against Arizona. Sigh, just when you think you have them figured out. Here’s what I do know: The Giants are WOUNDED this week: Engram has a late injury (questionable) Colt McCoy is back in (farts), but the most IMPORTANT player on the Giants is out due to Covid is James Bradberry. He’s EASILY been Gettleman’s best signing this season and maybe for his career. Top 3 corner for sure and now he’s out. Also out, Jason Garrett and a few other Giants coaches are out due to covid and their LBs coach just left to coach Illinois. So who is calling the plays for the Giants? Fab Five Freddie Kitchens. (Rodney Dangerfield collar tug) Cle 2-6 ATS but 4-1 SU of late. 1-4 ATS and SU against Giants but this is pre-Baker Mayfield. 1-4 SU on road. Giants 5-2 ATS, 4-1 SU of late, 4-12 ATS at home. I just don’t see the defense holding stout without Bradberry and Cleveland absolutely needing the game. Maybe the Giants hold tight but I just need Cleveland to win outright with this teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Browns -.5

Edit: I grabbed last night a GB and Miami under teaser so that’s still alive!

Buffalo played a great game against Pitt, one of the 2 wins I had last week. This is the 2nd cross country flight for the Bills. Also, did you know the Broncos are the SECOND BEST ATS in the NFL? Denver defense #2 in pass TDs allowed and #7 in sacks. Den 5-1 SU home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS vs AFC east. And of course, this is Josh Allen’s first trip in altitude. This could a spot when Buffalo is caught looking ahead and Drew Lock can play well enough to keep it close. Double digits, why the hell not.

First leg of teaser Den +11.5 ALREADY LOST

Look, Carolina is playing teams tough but they’ve been hit with Covid. No Christian McCaffrey, sigh. That was fun taking him #1 in my buddy’s league and then missing the playoffs by 1.8 points. Yep, you read that right, ONE POINT EIGHT FUCKING POINTS. It’s cold in Green Bay tonight but Carolina 4-2 ATS in GB, 1-4 SU. GB 5-1 SU last 6, 11-1 SU at home, 4-1 SU home against Carolina. This is a lot to say for simply stating I’m taking

Second leg of teaser GB-1.5 ALREADY LOST

Quick handicap Hou 6/8 over on the road, Indy over 4/5, 7/9, 8/11 vs AFC. Watson fumbled late to lose the game but this game definitely has points scored. And Watson gets back his #1 WR with Brandin Cooks.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Indy over 44.5

Matt Stafford is expected to play with a busted thumb and torn rib cartilage. And the last time he did that, he got shut out by the Carolina Panthers. And if Chase Daniels goes, olly olly oxen free! Det 1-4 ATS against Tenn, 0-5 SU, 1-5 SU in Tenn. Tenn 4-2 ATS, 12-5 SU. Titans and Derrick Henry run right through that awful defense.

2nd leg of 7 point teaser: Titans -2.5

Two words: DWAYNE HASKINS. I know Seattle isn’t covering for shit and not looking solid of late: Seattle 3-6 ATS, 9-4 SU. 1-4 ATS on road, 2-5 vs NFC. I know the Skins are playing REALLY tight defense and covering. Washington 4-1 ATS and SU, 4-14 SU at home. 6-2 ATS at home. And I know I would rather sit in a public restroom in a stall between Louie Anderson and Carl Winslow after they both went out for fajita Friday than lay a nickel on Dwayne Haskins. So I took Seattle down to virtually a pick em and will watch them grind out a 1-3 point win.

First leg of teaser: Sea -.5

Gonna COMPLETELY go against conventional wisdom and I got this next leg of the teaser from my buddy, Nick Whitmer. Rams 4-1 ATS and SU, 5-1 SU home against Jets, 1-4 ATS vs AFC. Hets 4-9 ATS, 2-8 ATS against Rams. The Rams are gonna hatefuck the Jets into oblivion but shit, 17.5 is a TON of points. But can the Rams win by 2 TDs and not blow a backdoor cover after pulling their starters? I think so. I know we’re not teasing through 7 and 0 but I think this one comes home easily. The Jets lone chance to win 1 game is against the Pats, not on the road in LA

Second leg of the teaser: Rams -11.5

Pitt 2-4 ATS but 11-2 SU. 10-3-2 ATS, 10-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against AFC. Cincy 1-4 ATS but 4-1 ATS at home

Week 14 NFL picks ATS 12/12/20

If you couldn’t tell, I’m PSYCHED to see Gutting the Sacred Cow is now #15 on iTunes film review!!! WOW

I guess the pic of Ben Affleck palming J-Lo’s ass was the lucky charm I needed! An OUSTANDING 5-1-1 last week. The only loss was can you believe the fucking Steelers couldn’t win outright at home against the Skins? Teased that down to -1 but man, what a kick to the balls. Can’t complain when you on the other hand, have Oakland throw up a bomb to get the backdoor cover to push on another teaser. And the Giants under, Rams and Browns… barely broke a sweat in those games. I took the Rams und-AH on Thursday night as well, pushing the yearly total to 44-34-3 (56%) for the year. Back on track to help pay for those Christmas or whatever you celebrate presents.

Cardinals have been REALLY bad of late and that’s because for whatever the reason, Kyler Murray isn’t running. Rams kept him contained last week and that shoulder must be a bit balky. Now they fly east for a 1pm game against my NY Giants who FLOORED myself and the world by beating Seattle in Seattle with a backup QB. Daniel Jones was a full participant at practice Friday so I assume he’s a go. More stats for you: Cardinals 1-6 ATS of late and yet again, that 1 win was the hail mary to beat Buffalo. Historical numbers point to AZ as they’re 6-1 in NY and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS but that goes back how many QBs ago? And Giants are 5-1 ATS of late, the 1 ATS loss was the Bengals. They COVER as dogs and they’re 4-1 SU of late. Giants d has 20 points or fewer in 4 straight games (all wins), 3rd in takeaways, 8th in sacks, 10th in overall defense. There are a lot of games that need teasing this week so I had to partner this up with someone. I jumped on when it was 3, it’s now 2. JUST to be on the safe side but I do like them straight up, MAYBE even on the money line.

Giants +9 for teaser leg number 1.

What else can I tease besides all you people who think A Christmas Story is a good movie? It’s fucking terrible and this week on Gutting the Sacred Cow Podcast; I depants it, run it through a shredder, and pour it into a bathtub filled with lye. Let’s pick on the Eagles (yet again) starting a rookie QB. They’re not scoring points with Hurts making his NFL debut and of late, they’ve been awful. 6/6 have gone under, 4/5 vs NO, 11/13 at home. Saints have went under 5/5 of late and 4/5 against NFC.

Saints under 49.5 leg number 2

Two teams that have garbage defenses. Two teams that have excel in garbage time scoring. Utah, gimme 2! I couldn’t think of something else to start with 2 so you get one of the best movie quotes of all time. But let’s look at some no brainers stats. Titans 5/6 over of late, 5/6 on the road. 9-2-1 over out of 11, 18-3-1 over out of 22. Titans have 4 games they scored 35 or more in. Facing a Jags defense that is a Phantom Menace level of awful: dead last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, 2nd to last in rushing yards allowed. Jags 29th in points allowed. Jags over 7/10 against Tenn and 10/14 vs AFC. Say no more.

Titans over 52.5

The Colts are facing the Raiders this week who A) are missing key players on defense and B) already have the 29th ranked defense for sacks as 28th in scoring defense. And the Colts defense hasn’t been as lights out as it was earlier on: 17, 31, 45, and 20 points allowed. Colts have gone over 6/8 and 4/5 in Vegas/Oakland, 7/10 against AFC. Vegas over 9/12 and 4/5 at home. Josh Jacobs is questionable and Devonta Booker did whogatz against the goddamn Jets defense. They’ll have to air it out and I’m spot starting Rivers tomorrow in fantasy playoffs. 51.5 is the current number but I said let’s have less to sweat out.

1st leg of a teaser Colts over 45.5

Anthony Lynn and Donald Trump will be holding hands along with Adam Gase in the unemployment line sooner than later. But 1 thing you can bank on; after getting your doors blown off, NFL teams USUALLY respond with a resounding effort. And yours truly told you to take the Pats last week in a cakewalk 45-0 blowout. Enter the Atlanta Falcons. 30th in QB rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards, and 32nd to QB rushing TDs. Oh yeah, no Julio Jones either. Now, numbers do favor ATL: 7-2 ATS on the road, 6-0 SU in LAC. Chargers 0-6 ATS of late; 1-4 ATS and 1-5 SU at home. Now I know Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee but the Chargers HAVE to answer back, especially Herbert against a defense that’s worse than Police Academy: Mission to Moscow. Yes, they made it. Yes, it’s terrible and I bailed after 15 minutes. Like I said, Anthony Lynn is like the dealer DeNiro fired for incompetence in Casino. But if they don’t answer the bell after that gang rape last week, they might as well fire him Monday. But let’s REALLY help our cause out and…

2nd leg of the teaser: Chargers to +7.5

The new car smell that came when the Detroit Lions fired Patricia is over. Aaron Rodgers comes in and boy, he’s dealing this year. Everyone who gambled on him in fantasy looks like a genius. GB 8-4 ATS and 4-1 SU of late. I know GB has had troubles in Detroit, 1-6 ATS, but probably no Golladay and Swift again. Detroit 2-4 ATS and 5-15 SU of late. I’m seeing GB between laying between 8-9 points but I got lucky and jumped on when it was 7.5. But juuuuuust in case Detroit may keep it close and try to backdoor…

1st leg of teaser: GB -1.5 And if I were you, I’d tease it to -2.5 if possible; even lay the extra vig for a 7 pt teaser.

Well, I said it before and I’ll say it again. Nothing makes me happier than betting against the Philadelphia Eagles and winning money. Did it last week and now they finally sit Carson Wentz (from MVP to 25 million dollar albatross, HAHAHAHA!) and bring in Jalen Hurts. And what a time to do so; against the TOP RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL? Doug Pederson, if anything, is a goddamn masochist. Saints 5-0 ATS, 9-0 SU of late. Tell me more about Philly besides a town of people that made up a word, jawn, that’s more retarded than their chants. First time I heard that, I thought they were making a Suzyn Waldman reference. Deeper cut, go google it. NO is 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU in Philly, and 5-0 SU on the road. Philly 4-9 ATS of late and now with a rookie QB facing #1 defense in the last month, 3rd in sacks, 44 points allowed in the last 5 games, and the Saints have allowed TWO touchdowns in FIVE games. Oh yeah, they also had the #2 offense in the last month. Since we need to pair the GB game with someone, let’s make it even easier than those crawdaddy tourist muggers.

2nd leg of teaser, Saints -.5 And I also took the Eagles team total under 18 points for all of the reasons above.

Here’s one that may make you cock your head (you perverts) and say, really? I could be a little off base but the numbers will back this play. We all love the Chiefs since last year but if you’re not teasing them or taking them on the money line, you’ve lost A LOT of money on them of late. They’re 1-4 ATS but 7-0 SU of late as well as 8-0 SU on the road. Lastly, they haven’t won a game by more than SIX points in their last 4 games. Now they go to Miami who has been playing rock solid defense. Miami is an NFL best 9-3 ATS, 7-1 ATS of late as well as SU. Miami is also 7-2 SU home against KC, WOW! Miami has scored 20 or fewer in their last 3 but that leaky KC defense doesn’t scare anyone. Hell, Denver covered playing the Chiefs last week. I think Miami keeps this close but I’m always afraid of the Chiefs exploding. So maestro, a little extra cushion if you would?

First leg of the teaser Miami +13

And because I love the Saints this week more than my wife (Just kidding honey, these are just jokes that will pay for Christmas presents), I’m pairing the Saints again as part of a teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Saints -.5

And now, the premier matchup of the week. Pittsburgh has looked sloppy the last 2 games and losing to Washington, wow. They’re also down 2 LBs, have injuries on the o-line. This line JUMPED from Pitt -1.5 to Buffalo -1.5 as the sharps pounded this early. Is it recency bias because of the way the Bills grabbed the Niners like a bowling ball and then tossed them out like a parking ticket in a foreign country? Maybe. Steelers are 7-3 ATS of late but they haven’t had a “bye” since week 5. Let’s add this is the Steelers 3rd game in 12 days and they might be on fumes at this point. Buffalo fresh off a bye and 4-1 ATS, 5-1 SU and 5-1 SU at home. Look, I get why you would want to back Pitt, especially since they’re 17-5 ATS off a loss and against a winning team. But my gut says Pitt may be sluggish and the Bills are fired up. The number is sure right to take them…

Bills -1.5

NFL Week 13 against the spread picks

Heidy-ho neighborinos. 3-3 last week AGAIN, ugh. The Giants got backdoored, that was a gut punch. But being first place as a Giants fan at THIS point in the season? I would’ve turned down +900 odds if you would’ve offered a bet the Giants would be in first at any point in the season after week 2. Enough crowing about being in the first in the rhino shit NFC east division. Anthony Lynn is the worst coach in the NFL BY FAR. Forget Adam Gase for a second; Lynn is the worst clock managing, situation calling HC with last week’s gaffe. Remember, I LOVED the Chargers over teased down. 4th and 27 at the 50 down by 10 and Herbert gets a miraculous Hail Mary. So Chargers have 10 seconds and no time outs. These dumb dildos try to RUN it, not once, but TWICE. Throw the goddamn ball once, maybe twice. And then kick the FG to cut it to 7. (Which would’ve put us at the over). But no, fuckface Lynn doesn’t do it and I lost. So I had to tease GB with Sea which thankfully hit. And for those who listened to me and teased Seattle down to below a FG, you’re thanking me now. Cause if you took them at -6, that was one of the worst backdoor pushes you’ll ever see. 38-33-2 for the year, 53.5% for the year which is just above break even (52.5%), let’s keep climbing.

The Titans are in the bottom 5 of pass rushing teams. Browns are 11-7 SU against teams in bottom third in pass rush. They also have a 9.7 YPA against bottom 5 pass rush teams. Cleveland 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS on the road. What does that mean? Take them as a dog, not as a favorite. Cleveland has one of the top rushing attacks and Baker can play well when the opposing team isn’t blitzing him like when an Instagram model posts thirst trap pics. I think 6 is wayyyy too high and the Titans defense is putrid. Cleveland could win but EASILY keep it close the entire time or backdoor it.

I locked in 2 days ago, Cle +6

Colt McCoy, cool porno name, bad QB. But that’s whose under center after Danny Jones strains a hamstring. Am I here to play loyalist and take my Giants and the points, being they’re AMAZING ATS record as a dog? FOH. I am here to say the Giants won’t be scoring much, as they usually don’t. Plus, they have a good defense as we know. They’re going to lose and it may be kinda close. I expect a lot of running and dump offs which obviously translates to a lot of time taken off the clock. Giants are 4/6 under of late and Sea has gone under 4/6 vs NFC. Weather is supposed to be fine so I’m taking…

Giants under 47.5

Completely forgot how Shanahan owns McVay in last week’s Rams pick. However, Rams are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS off a loss and McVay is 6-0 since taking over the Rams. Let’s also note the Rams are 5-0 in Zona so this is more of the same thing; divisional rival owning one another. Rams D allowing 15.1 rushing yds to opposing defenses, lowest in NFL. Let’s add a dash of a Kyler Murray shoulder issue with a sprinkle of the Cardinals have been BAD of late, 1-4 ATS. And that one…was the hail mary game against Buffalo. Too many numbers on the side of the Rams and a few books have Rams -2.5 at this time but I feel comfortable taking…

Rams -2.5

The last time the Raiders came to the east coast to the play the Jets, they got anally swagglefoosed. Anal Swagglefoose sounds like a great punk band name or gay porn title, tres ja lies, Clarisse. Vegas was embarrassed last week in Atlanta. I can’t see Vegas losing another one; I can’t see them losing to the Jets again. Vegas is 4-1 of late, 4-2 ATS against Jets. 6-2 ATS on the road but 0-6 SU at the Jets. Jets 3-8 of late ATS and Gase is just working out the string until he gets fired 30 minutes after the last game of the season. Can the Raiders get backdoored laying 8? You betcha as they say in Wisconsin. Raiders win but let’s not get fucked like a bunch of you did on Monday night. I locked it in when it was 9 but I teased to down to..

Raiders -3

What else are are going to tease it with? Nothing puts a smile on my face more than Philly losing and me winning at their expense. Philly heads to Green Bay and I know this is going to sound like Squaresville but let’s look at facts. Packers 8/11 over 30 ppg of late. They’re 14-4 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. GB is 2-5 ATS home against Philly but Philly 2-5 ATS and SU against GB of their last 7. Philly 4-8 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS on the road. Wentz 27th in QBR and no more than 60% completion in his last 7 games. GB has a decent pass rush and Philly doesn’t run near as much as they used to. 8 is also a high number and we know Philly can backdoor anyone because Doug Pederson kicks PATs like Philly fans avoid Zubaz pants and hoodies at bars. Can the Packers cover less than a FG? You betcha. So this is an EASY second leg of the teaser. I jumped the gun too early again when it was GB -8.5 so leg number 2 of the teaser is…

GB -2.5

This last pick is going to have strings attached. IF Cam Newton doesn’t play, do not take this action. I already locked in before knowing he had an injury designation (questionable but expected to play) and I should’ve because Cam gets hurt if someone farts in his general direction. Again, let’s look at facts. You know what Bill Bellichick’s winning % is against 1st year QBs? 65%. So Justin Herbert is going to have a tough day like Michael Douglas did in Falling Down. In a battle of coaches, it’s Bellichick vs Anthony Lynn. This is Mike Tyson vs the Sherminator from American Pie. BB owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU and ATS but those are obviously with Brady. Pats are 1-4 ATS on the road which doesn’t help; except for these facts: Chargers are 0-5 ATS of late, 2-8 SU in 10. 3-8 ATS at home. If ANYONE can fuck up a cup of coffee, it’s Anthony Lynn. You’re giving me 1.5 points? You don’t think they can’t win outright and of course, win with a last minute FG? Why not. And again, this is IF Cam plays.

Pats +1.5

Houston 4-8 ATS and SU of late. Houston 0-7-1 home against the Colts of late. Colts just got violated like an SJW watching American History X. Colts are 7-3 SU of late, 6-1 vs You, 5-2 SU against Houston. Colts missing their left tackle but the Texans lost their biggest receiver, Will Fuller, due to steroids for the year. Colts own them plus on the bounce back.

Colts -3

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.