Superbowl 2022 Bets and props 3/13/22

I’m grading myself on the highlighted

Props

  1. 1. Bengals over .5 FG in the 1h. We know McPherson has an absolute boot and Taylor will not gamble early in the game, he’s taking the points.
  2. 2. Rams score a rushing TD. 3 RBs and don’t be surprised if one of them run it in.
  3. 3. LOVE THIS BET every single year: 3Q outscores the 1Q. A rookie coach against a 2nd time superbowl coach will be conservative to start but after halftime, the playbook (like your moms’ legs) get opened up.
  4. 4. Over 50 Took this bet immediately after the Rams game ended and one of the times I got the worst of the number. Bengals are 4/5 under of late and Rams (on the road) are 4/5 over but throw those out. Not loving this bet now
  5. 5. Over 6.5 punts. Good defense by the Rams so that means 7 punts we need almost 2 a quarter. Not too much to ask.
  6. 6. Bengals score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3
  7. 7. Rams score more in the second half than the first. See above logic on bet 3.
  8. 8. Second half outscores the first half.
  9. 9. OBJ over 63.5.
  10. 10. Rams ML last to score last in the half
  11. 11. Bengals +1 1Q
  12. 12. Akers over 62.5 rushing yds. Freshest legs of the 3 backs and LA will look to burn clock. Speaking of burning clock.
  13. 13. Rams more time of possession.
  14. 14. Bengals +10.5/over 42.5 teaser Like this as the best side/total combo
  15. 15. Kupp over 102.5 receiving yards.
  16. 16. Bengals +4.5 Bengals 7-0 ATS of late, Rams 6-3 ATS. I think the Bengals CAN win but I’m quite confident the Bengals keep it close if they lose.
  17. 17. Longest FG made by Cincy. See bet #1
  18. 18. Most 1st downs by Rams
  19. 19. Burrow over 10.5 rushing yards
  20. 20. Opening kickoff is NOT a touchback. These balls are commemorative balls and they’re ROCK HARD according to sources.
  21. 21. More sacks by the Rams
  22. 22. Mixon over 3.5 receptions. More screen passes can happen under pressure
  23. 23. Rams NO 4th down conversion. McVay goes for it but converts only 38% of the time and this is a plus bet? Heidy ho
  24. 24. Bengals +1 3Q
  25. 25. Cincy Team Total under 23.5
  26. 26. Last team to score wins the game.

NFL Conference championship betting week ATS 1/30/22

Much like Amy Schneider, my winning streak is over but a lot less rich than she is. But I’m still better looking so I have that going for me..which is nice. The goddamn Packers fucked me royally and I went 1-5 on Saturday but 3-0 on Sunday, bringing my total for the playoffs at 14-9 (61%) and my total for the year to 113-92-1 (55%), very much still in the black. So next time you see me and I ever say, “I’m thinking about betting on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, pour bleach down my urethra and kick me in the taint as hard as possible. Let’s start out with some fun facts about conference championship weekend:

Home teams are 13-3 outright and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons (since 2013). Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons (4-0 previous 2 seasons).

This is shouldn’t be close but let’s show you how and why: Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, all as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when favored by at least four points. Mahomes is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019. Teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore. Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. He is 31-14 ATS when the total is lower. KC has gone over 5/5. Satisfied? Now something nice to say about the Bengals. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and has covered six straight games and four straight road games. And that’s it. Like Hulkamania and your mom’s house, 80k will be there this sunday and I can’t see Joe Burrow keeping this close but why gamble when gambling. Oh yeah, one more stat. Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.

KC to win the Superbowl +125

Chiefs -.5/over 47.5

  • We all know San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those six games. SF has won twice this season and we all know what happens, see the 2006 NY Giants against Dallas as a fun and friendly reminder. Yes, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 outright and ATS against Sean McVay. So let’s pile up the data: Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 straight up as a betting underdog. That is the best straight up mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a road underdog. San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week. In the last 35 seasons, teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 2-7 straight up and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS). The last team to win four straight games, all on the road was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye in between since 1961. All that being said, I’m going for the middle. I think the Rams win and cover but I also think they don’t blow them out. This can easily be 24-20, 20-16. Niners are under 6/7 of late and 4/6 under against the Rams. Rams are 5/6 under at home as well. I went light on the Rams and more with the teaser. Also went under and Akers under rushing yds because he’s a fumbling machine of late, there will be a short leash on him, especially if he coughs it up early. He hasn’t topped 55 rushing yds in any playoff game and Michel doesn’t fumble.
  • Rams -3, Niners 1h +3, Akers under rushing yds 59.5, Niners +10.5/Chiefs pick em, Rams under 45.5

Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

NFL picks week 17 ATS

FINALLY, we’re back on that streak that we talked about, 4 winning weeks in a row! 5-2 last week and 86-77-1 for a 53% win percentage for this year. Week 17 has always been the bane of my existence but not this year as week 18 is the new week 17. Thankfully, one more week before I have that bed shitting week, let’s windmill those dicks while we’re in line at the DMV. And while you’re at it, wish me luck in my 3 fantasy leagues that I reached the finals. Out of 4 leagues, I’ll gladly take 3 paydays!

Show me an iota of respect for the NY Giants offense and I’ll show you someone who is always diplomatic and can’t ever value their opinion. Giants under has hit 7/9 of late and why trust Mike Glennon on the road? They BARELY scored 10 points against Philly and now they’re in Chicago. I just can’t see them putting up more than 2 TDS against Akeem Nicks and the rest of the Bears D.

Giants team under 16 points

This is going to be a 2 prong win if this hits. I have a Titans to win division ticket and this is the home run spot as they get 10 days off and play the Dolphins who are on a short week. Miami has played a slew of shitty QBs of late and not saying Tannehill is great but he’s better than the Ian Book and Zack Wilsons of the world. Titans 2-4 ATS of late but 8-3 SU of late. They’re 6-1 SU at home and they have a chance to lock up division should the Colts lose against the Raiders, especially with Went battling Covid. The Dolphins are indeed on fire of late: 6-1 ATS, 7-0 SU, and 11-5 SU against Tenn. I think Tenn wins and covers and I’m on the right side of the line.

Titans -3

Baltimore Ravens are as bad a mess as their shitty accent. Seriously, that accent is a stone’s throw from Philly and every time I hear it, I think someone from a flea market is trying to sell me samurai swords. I don’t know who’s playing QB tomorrow but a hobbled Lamar doesn’t scare me. Huntley is decent and I’d love to play the over. But I can’t trust the Ravens to put up their share of points but you know what I can trust besides your mom rubbing her slit on my knee after 3 Long Island Ice teas? The Baltimore secondary getting abused like a newsgirl on day 1 working for Roger Ailes. We say the Bengals pile on the Ravens so why can’t the Rams? Rams have gone over 4/5 on the road and for rooting interests, I have Stafford in 2 leagues in the finals. Can they score more than 26 points? I sure as shit think so. Ravens are 28th for defense in DVOA and dead last week since week 10. Also, 29 ppg allowed in the last 4 for the ravens D.

Rams team over 26 points

Bengals beat up the Ravens and they need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt, 4-2 ATS and SU of late. The Chiefs are playing like the team we thought they were, 6-0 ATS and 8-0 SU of late, so where does this leave us? Right here: Chiefs are 0-5 SU in Cincy. Can the Cincy o-line contain that pass rush? I hope and think that they can.

Bengals +5.5

Same game, different aspect.

Cincy team total over 23.5 points

Cincy has gone over 4/5 at home and 6/9 of late. Bengals are 27th in points allowed at home but 7th in points scored. Chiefs are 4/6 over of late as well, 4th in total points. Points will be had so let’s simplify shit and make this a teaser:

First half of teaser: Chiefs over 45

Sometimes I hesitate and it bites me in the ass, sometimes I get lucky. Yesterday, I got bitten in the ass as I delayed putting in the Vikings under and wouldn’t you know it, Captain Anti-Vax is out with Covid. So of course, the line drops and I’m caught holding the bag. Usually, I would never bet an under involving Green Bay or Vikings but obviously with Cousins out, this game won’t be putting up the points we thought. No Adam Thielen as well so this helps our cause. Also, this is the Sunday night game where it’s going to be 10 degrees in GB, not exactly inviting high scores. Again, all the trends point over but I’m betting on a backup screwing up as well as frigid GB.

Second half of teaser: Vikings under 48

Baker Mayfield looked sloppier than the prom queen during her 20th high school reunion. They get another day of rest and go to Pittsburgh who got prison raped and filleted last week against the Chiefs. Browns of late are 2-4 ATS and SU. Browns are 1-4 ATS in Pittsburgh, 1-17 SU in Pitt. Steelers 5-0-1 SU of late at home sure as hell doesn’t hurt. And I’m sure we’re going to hear this till our taints hurt but you may have heard this is Rothliesberger’s last home game. Call me a sentimental dips hit but I think that the combination of his last game, Pitt coming off a straight up cunt punting, and getting in at the right number, this is a winning play.

Pitt +3.5

Remember how I said how I don’t act early enough some times and how it bites me or I’ve gotten lucky? Well in this game, I acted early and I’m wise to have done so. Locked in the Texans +13 Tuesday night and the next day, Jimmy G is announced that he has a thumb with 2 fractures. The Texans D surprisingly quasi held down the Chargers last week and they’re 15th against the pass, 18th in DVOA. San Fran pass defense is 23rd against the pass and Mills has been airing it out pretty well. Trey Lantz will probably start and no better time to bet against a rookie QB who hasn’t earned a start vs a team who’s playing hard and catching almost 2 touchdowns. And Houston has already won 2 outright as a double digit dog. Lastly, Niners are 4-11 SU at home, yuck.

Houston +13

I know I said this last week but shit, I can’t see any of these teams losing outright this week:

TB/Bills/Pats/GB ml parlay

Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

NFL Week 10 picks

5-5 last week. 48-44 for the year, 52.2% for the year which is a tick under break even. Unfortunately, the Ravens decided to bend me over 3 different ways and stick in my chute as they lose outright to the Dolphins. Got to this late so just straight gas and facts.

Dallas in a rebound but let’s cover our ass with a 6.5 teaser. Dallas 7-1 ATS of late and Falcons are playing better of late, 4-2 ATS and 4-1 ATS vs Dallas. Dallas can win by a FG or more after getting embarrassed. Second half of the teaser, I’m worried about as Ben got put on Covid list late last night. Good news, they can run the ball down Detroit’s throat as everyone else has. Pitt 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU, especially getting stupid lucky with that dogshit call with the Bears.

Dallas -2.5/pitt -2 6.5 teaser

Bucs don’t cover on the road and of late: 2-4 ATS of late and against Wash. Both teams off a bye and Wash can keep it under 2 scores. Yes, you’re asking a team 1-7 ATS of late to keep it close against one of the top offenses but they’re without Brown and Gronk again.

Washington +9.5

Colts -4/Seattle +10 6.5 teaser

Falcons +3 1q

Zona/Colts/TB/Buff parlay

Pitt -2.5/Raiders +8.5

Colts -4.5/Vikings over 47

Saints have the #1 run defense but I don’t care. Kamara is their ENTIRE offense and Trevor Simian isn’t good. The Titans beat the hell out of the Rams last sunday night (another rough one to swallow) and I’m laying under a FG. Yes, I know the Titans are due for a letdown but we’ve been saying that for how long now? 5-0 ATS and SUAnd they’re home and get to blitzkrieg Trevor Simian?

Titans -2.5

Vikings +8.5/Raiders +8.5

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

2021 NFL picks week 2 Against the Spread

Back from Vegas and caught up on sleep (finally) where I was accosted by not one by two, Aunt Kathies. Both were above 60 however one looked like she could still compete in beauty pageants (no bullshit) and the other…well, let’s just say she was quite excited to apply suntan lotion to me while talking about her “cooter.” And of course, who could forget about the Raiders fan we saw last monday night at the bar with his jersey name being, “Raider Pussy” and the number 1.

5-3 last week, 1-1 this week as I took the Giants +3.5 (hit) and 1h under 20.5 (miss) So that brings me to a total of 6-4 for the year and remember, all the videos starring the Cookie Monster are on IG and FB (if you’re lucky enough to have me as a friend3

Lost the Bills last week teased down to .5 as I thought they’d win and they sure dominated the line of scrimmage. But a fumble for a TD and going for it on 4th and failing twice did them in. Pitt D played well and now they face the Raiders who opened their stadium in grand fashion, an OT thriller that HAD to leave them spent. I just hope Raider Pussy 1 makes the trip to Pittsburgh to support his Raiders. Derek Carr was the worst QB last week against pressure. And has Lois Einhorn said in Ace Ventura, “What do you know about, PRESSURE?” I know Carr was 1/9 with a pick under pressure and if Pitt can make Josh Allen look like Josh McCown, they’re gonna do wonders to Carr today. And no Josh Jacobs either, I’m not joshing you with all of these Joshes. Vegas is 1-4 SU in Pitt but 7-1 ATS against Pitt. Pitt is 5-1 ATS at home in September so that should make you feel better. I can’t see the Raiders coming into Pitt and making much, if any, noise. I grabbed it at 6.5 but as of 10:52am, the line is back down to 5.5, when I should’ve grabbed it. And that’s the rule kids, don’t wait to get cute. You see a number you like, lock it in before it goes to or above a key number (3 and 7)

Pitt -6.5 (medium bet)

For those of you who watched the Pats game, you saw they Pats were about to go into the end zone against the Fins and then coughed it up. I have to think there’s less than zero chance that Bellichick loses to a Jets team who got manhandled by Carolina. Oh yeah, their stud OL Beckton is out now. Pats defense will easily send Wilson running around for his life. Pats 5-2 ATS against the Jets but 10-0 SU against them and 5-0 SU in NY. Jets are also 1-9 ATS in September so inspiring about as much confidence as an immunocompromised patient licking a subway pole. This one SHOULD be an easy one.

Pats -5.5 heavy

Can’t believe I’m typing these words but christ, here we are…I enjoyed Sebasian Maniscalco’s last standup special. Just kidding! I like the Bears this week. They played a solid game against the Rams defense, Montgomery had over 100 yds rushing and Dalton was decent. Stafford just threw some quick strike bombs (covered w the Rams in 2 different teasers and a ML parlay) but never really had control of the game like you would think. Bengals played an OT thriller where they got lucky that the refs called a fumble for Dalvin Cook that wasn’t. But ya boy had that Minn over and sucked that out. So Cincy is 1-18-1 SU on the road but 4-2 SU on the road against Chi. Wow, that’s odd. Bengals defense has more gaping holes than Hope Solo’s leaked nudes and I think Dalton does enough to win, plus the number is on the right side, 1.5 but I locked in at 2.5. Not really worried about that swing. Bears are 5-0 ATS against AFC north teams but 1-4 SU at home of late. Again, those numbers are out of whack as Dalton just became their QB. I think they do enough to win by that FG

Bears -2.5 medium

I have the Colts as an under for this year but remember, key numbers are in play here. As stated above with the Bears, Rams were good but not as dominating as you thought. Here’s the stat of stats for you. Colts have lost EIGHT straight week 1 games and have won 3 straight week 2 games. They’re getting back Quinton Nelson which should be a help to Wentz. Colts are 5-1 ATS against NFC and Rams are 1-5 ATS against an AFC team. Again, the number is key as it’s 3.5 and home dogs who are 5-2 ATS this year already. I think the Colts keep it tight

Colts +3.5 medium

Panthers manhandled the Jets last week which is as surprising as Josh Gordon manhandling weed. BTW, he got reinstated AGAIN this week. That’s how you know it’s about to be fall, when Josh Gordon gets the thumbs up from the league. Even Steve Howe said, “enough is enough.” And now for the handicap which is going to be a lot of what I said above, home dogs cover a bunch. And now, let’s take it a step further. Mike Lombardi said divisional home dogs cover ~64% of the time. Also, Saints are missing a TON of coaches due to Covid and their best CB, Lattimore, is out with a hand injury. Winston treated Green Bay like Biden handled the Afghanistan exit, sloppily. But did you know he didn’t have 100 yds passing till midway through the 4th quarter? Wow. And get this: Under Brees the Saints are 8-1 SU against Carolina BUT 2-5 ATS. Meaning they play them tight.

Car +3.5 medium

I think we all know that Cleveland, TB, and GB are going to respectively murder their opponents like Cardi B murders the English language. But as a savvy gambler, you’re not laying double digits in the NFL. And I don’t feel like laying out money line prices like -650 cause god forbid you lose one of them, you’re down a lot if you bet all 3. So I made a 3 way money line parlay bet with those 3.

3 leg ML parlay Cle, TB, GB. heavy

The Browns can put up points as can Houston. Both defenses stink so let’s focus on some over stats: Vikes and that fractured locker room led by that wacky Kirk Cousins has gone over 4/5 of late. Zona has gone over 5/6 at home and we saw what they did to Tennessee’s defense that only be compared to Bayonne, NJ. Browns have gone over 6/9 of late but under 4/5 against Houston at home. Teasing both of these games makes 27-20 games both winners. And I have HALF an inkling to take Houston +13.5 and if that hits 14 by kickoff, I’m on it.

Teaser Browns over 41.5 and Vikings over 44.5 medium

I’m afraid of a lazy backdoor cover by the Falcons even though they showed as much fight as Terry Schiavo during a tug of war against the Eagles last week. I expect TB to come out firing as they’ve had 10 days off and after almost losing to the Cowboys, not letting up one bit. Don’t be surprised to see TB up by at least 10 at the half and not have to sweat the second half and a backdoor cover.

TB -7 heavy