NFL Super Bowl 2019 ATS picks

The Super Bowl is truly bittersweet for me.  On one end, this signifies the end of the NFL season.  It also signifies the end of the freeeeeee money printing press that’s been in my house since week 1.  Even though I went 1-2 last week, (took the Saints under but lost the teaser and KC under.  How the fuck did they beat me when the halftime score was 14-0 and the OU was 56?  Wow.) I’m still 60% (72/120) for the year.  That’s pretty damn solid, a high water mark for my career.  And for the finale of the season, I’m only taking the side in this game, I’m not sure about the total but I’m leaning under.  What I do have are 7 prop bets.  I’m not counting those against my W/L record for the season.  Here we go: 

What did we learn 2 weeks ago?  The rumor of the Pats death is greatly exaggerated.  Brady did what he does best, score with the opposing team giving him too much time.  Andy Reid is the worst clock manager, worse than any Jets head coach.  Fun fact, the Pats fans will travel to the game, Rams fans barely show up at home.  You think they’re getting on a 6 hour flight?  I don’t.  

The worst thing the Rams have going against the are the Pats lost to the Eagles last year.  Brady is looking to getting another ring before considering retirement.  He says he’s not but his abilities have definitely shown regression.  I’ll lay the load on Gronkowski retiring this season, ESPECIALLY if they win.  I always back up my handicaps with numbers: 4-1 SU in their last 5, 8-4 ATS.  5-0 SU vs the Rams, 5-1 ATS but to be fair, this was pre-McVay.  I will also say that after each of their first 2 Super bowl losses, they won their next appearance in the Super bowl.  Yes, the Super bowl dogs are 13-4 ATS and 6/7 winning outright.  Pats are not the bet in the Super bowl, 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.  BUT the Pats are 8-0 against playoff teams this year.  How do you beat Brady?  Putting him on his back more than your mother.  Just ask my NY football Giants.  The Rams DO have those pass rushers in Suh and Donald who can get the QB.  But Brady faced ZERO pressure from the Chiefs who have a decent pass rush.  When was the last the Patriots bad loss?  Against the Titans…in October.  And the Chargers D got buttfucked with their zone defense against the Pats run.  So if the Rams are going to win, it’s because the D got Brady and maybe got a turnover or 2.

But remember, betting the NUMBER wins you games, not the team.  I jumped on this bet an hour after the AFC game was over but as of Sat night, it’s 2.5.  If you’re liking the Pats, jump on it now.  I did because when they do win, they barely win.  It’s less than a FG.  And Bellichick gets 2 weeks to prep for Jared Goff who was ok vs the Cowboys but good (especially in the 2nd half) vs the Saints.  The Pats players combined for over 60 Super Bowl games of experience.  The Rams?  2.  The newness/inexperience for the Rams players will put them at a disadvantage.  Oh yeah, Todd Gurley was AWFUL against the Saints.  He’s obviously pretty hobbled.  For the Patriots, this routine is as easy for them as Sunday morning, deflate balls, or tape other teams practices.  This is the last one for the Patriots.  It makes me sick having to bet them again but I might as well financially capitalize on them winning.  It will be the Rams’s time soon, just not yet.

I bet the Pats -1.5 

After Julian Edelman, who is Brady’s best pass catcher? James White by a landslide.  He had 15 catches vs the Chargers but 4 vs KC.  He had 97 yds vs LAC, 49 vs KC.  I just see them dinking and dunking against the Rams D.  They’re not stretching the field with the lack of deep threat and Brady’s arm is weaker.  So you can bet that White is getting his catches and yards.  And remember, he decimated the Falcons in the Superbowl 2 years ago with a 14 for 110 yds performance.

James White over 6 catches, James White over 52.5 receiving yards.

This game will be close so feel free to take YES on:

Game will be tied again after 0-0.  

Pats D combined 24 1Q points in their 8 Super bowl games.  Pats have scored 3 TOTAL points in those 8 first quarters.  Rams also push the pedal down in the 2nd half, not the first half.

1Q under 10.5

This happens nearly EVERY year.  Teams get looser after half time, break out the gadget plays.  MOST teams play it conservatively in the first half and defenses begin to tire in the second half.

More scores in the 2nd half than 1st, -.5

I know I said above that the Pats are notoriously SLOW starters with 3 pts in ALL of the first quarters in their Super bowl appearances.  For some reason, I think they’re going to slightly outscore the Rams early as the Rams will be a bundle of nerves, especially in the first quarter.

Pats -.5 in the 1Q

Julian Edelman in 7 of the last 11 over 79.5 yards.  In the playoffs, 10/12 over 79.5 receiving yards.  Roby-Fullman (the guy who popped the Saints WR where no PI was called) will be most likely covering Edelman.  Gronk won’t be getting the main passing yards and Hogan/Dorsett aren’t the big targets.  Definitely Brady’s security blanket, he didn’t play last year, and he missed 4 games this year.  He’ll want to make a name for himself this Superbowl.

Edelman over 82.5 yds

OVER National Anthem time.  People know the length via rehearsal, hence why it’s so high on over.

OVER 3 times I poop Monday morning from all of the awful food.  

UNDER 9 Tito’s and club.  I have to drive home and be responsible.  

OVER 8.5 times I say throughout the night that the next time I watch an NFL game will be in Vegas.

And if you’re wondering my box numbers, here they are:

Rams 5, Pats 8

Rams 4, Pats 8

Rams 8, Pats 0

Rams 3, Pats 1

Rams 9, Pats 1

Rams 1, Pats 0

Rams 2, Pats 5

Rams 0, Pats 4

Good luck in the last game of the year.  The next time I’m betting football, I’ll be in Vegas. And I hope you are too.

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NFL Championship Weekend ATS picks

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This photo has nothing to do with gambling or the NFL, I’m just excited for a Public Enemy/Wu-Tang tour.

law of av·er·ag·es

noun  

  1. the principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

 

Here’s what happened last week: The law of averages saw Kevin the Kraut doing 155 

mph in a sleek, red Ferrari on the turnpike with his winning ways.  LOA turns on the 

sirens and pulls over KTK, telling him he needs to slow down. “Slow down?? I will do no 

such thing!” Except I didn’t say that to LOA, I just thought it. “Yes sir, I’ll slow down.  

Thanks for the warning, officer.”  And what happens?  You pull away slowly, staying 

within the speed limit until the officer pulls out and speeds away.  And what do we all

do then?  Fucking floor it.  And that’s what we’re going to do, floor it.  2 more weeks to 

print money, let’s get it.

 

2-2 last week.  Dallas over and KC under both came home.  Unfortunately, both horseface

Andrew Luck lallygagged the shit out of the game.  Did you see him on 4th and goal with

:06 left?  Didn’t get the line set and the game was over.  He took his sweet ass time with a

chance to push the cover but even before that, had his worst game of the year.  He gets a

pass for being rock solid all year long.  Saints didn’t cover either but at least they took out

the garbage from Philly.  71/117 on the year,  61% for the year.  Still rocking and rollin’,

baby.  

 

Lock of the week: one more teaser for the year.  I’ve told you all year long, the Saints are

winning the Superbowl.  They’re insanely great at home, 30 ppg at home except last

week. Yes, Drew Brees looked off last week.  But you know what wasn’t off?  That

defense.  The Saints can run and stop the run.  Saints are 10-5 of late but 1-5 in the last 6.  

Saints at home against the Rams are both 4-2 ATS and SU.  The problem for the Rams is

Goff.  He has 11 TDs and 10 INTs on the road.  The Rams O-line and run game beat Dallas,

Goff didn’t.  Gurley is obviously banged up, CJ Anderson had more carries last week.  

They’re not going to run against the Saints like they did Dallas.  Goff last 3 vs playoff

teams ZERO TDs and 5 INTs.  Obviously, McVay doesn’t trust Goff either as Goff passed 28

times and the ball was run 48 times.  Wow.  You know the Saints in the last 8 games have

the 6th ranked DVOA on defense and 7th for offense?  Lastly, in the last 8 games, the

Saints are giving up  14 ppg.  Big improvement since when they had morbidly obese Rob

Ryan and his mullet in charge of defense.   I said it before and I’ll say it again, Drew Brees 

has one more Superbowl run left in him.  And we’re going to ensure it happens by…

 

Teasing the Saints to +3

 

The Patriots are on the road for the first time in a long time.  I’m sure you’ve seen the 

meme that Mark Sanchez has more road wins than Brady.  Much like Goff last week, 

Brady didn’t win that game…his rushing attack did.  Yes, he dumped off to James White a 

ton but he wasn’t throwing it downfield.  The rushing attack gashed the Chargers and 

didn’t have to force Brady to make a bunch of key throws.  The Pats are 2-5 ATS vs KC but

4-2 ATS in KC.  However, here’s the KEY number: Pats are 1-5 SU in KC.  The KC defense

got me believing in them after they made the Colts look like mares last week.  The only

thing that  scares me is that despite last week, the Chiefs are dead last against the run.  

Now let’s get back on the good side of the Chiefs argument.  Although the Chiefs D is

suspect, they average 17 ppg at home, 34 away.  Eric Berry is questionable and may come

back on defense.  If the Chiefs can bottle up the Pats like they did with the Colts, they can

get the monkey off of Andy Reid’s back.  And we all know during conference

championship weekend that home teams are undefeated the last 10 games.  No teams

has won a Superbowl having played a road game in the playoffs.  More bad news for the

Patriots, Tom Brady’s yards per attempt are sincerely in the dumps.  When Josh Gordon

was on the team and probably smoking tons of weed, Brady had 7.6 yards per attempt.  

Without Gordon, Brady has a 5.6 YPA.  That puts him DEAD LAST in the NFL without

Gordon.  If the Pats can’t run the ball successfully, they’re in trouble.  Last stat: the

Patriots have failed to meet expectations while on the road by a combined 74 points

which is 9 PPG.  Remember, they were 3-5 ATS on the road this year.  And the wins they

had were a bit lucky: the Bears game, the pick 6 against Buffalo, and the Jets game where

the Jets were driving and got to the Pats 6 yd line.  I know betting against the Pats is

usually not a profitable adventure.  But these aren’t the Pats we know and old man Brady

is ready to start going to the movies at 2pm, be in bed by 7:30, and be a lot more

comfortable using racial slurs. 

 

Second half of teaser Chiefs +3

 

Pats under 4/5 on the road, Chiefs are under 11/14.  It’s not going to be as cold as

everyone thought it was going to be, it will be a balmy 24 degrees.  I think that there will

be points but too many as the Pats will be mostly running that ball or relying on the

dump off passes to White.  Of course, the Chiefs are able to score a TD in 3 minutes or

less.  So let’s cross our fingers and hope the score goes…

Under 54.5

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

scrooge_mcduck_

My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.”  Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself.  Words to live by.  My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.”  Brilliant.  You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before?  Taking selfies.  Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail.  WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT!  Hashtag livin that balla life.”  Yuck.  Act like you’ve been there before.  That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life.  Which is sad.  You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time?  The first step is playing the part.  Act like you’ve been there before.

Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice.  Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before.  Even though I haven’t.  Last year, I was 56%,  Pretty good.    How did I do last week?  Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season.  So let’s keep cashing tickets.  And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it.  We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!

Lock of the week:

If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land.  Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash.  Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.”  And that’s what we going to do again this week.  Because I love the Saints.  And I love them home AND off a bye.  Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game.  3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones.  The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly.  Yeah, I know what you’re going to say.  The Saints offense has slowed down the last month.  You’re right, it did.  BUT how many of those games were at home?  Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees.  What did they score for those 3 home games?  48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt.  Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago.  Watch them make a run like last year.”  Yeah, they also had home field last year.  Yep, now give me the road warrior argument.  You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12.  So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears.  Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears?  Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary.  Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints?  At home?  After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month?  I don’t.  BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home.  Remember what I said about don’t be a hero?  Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor.  9 and 51.5 are a lot.  So what?  So let’s dance!

I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week.  I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them.  They’re 10-1 since week 6.  Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out.  His red zone stats, stupid.  32 TDs, 1 INT.  He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more.  Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski?  Wow.  Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards.  Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run?  Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6.  Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6.  Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC.  KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW.  I know, a dome team in the snow.  Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good.  KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy.  I love the Colts, they can even win outright.  And I love them a lot more when I…

Tease the Colts to +11.  I also took the under 56.5.  

The cockroaches are out.  That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA.  The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up.  Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers.  The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number.  4-7-2 overall ATS of late.  And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health?  If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word.  But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up.  Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team.  Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round.  God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities.  Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams.  Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late.  They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models.  Running=controlling the clock.  Dallas is going to keep this close.  One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016.  Impressive, as is getting 7.  But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…

The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.  

 

 

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

NFL Week 15 picks ATS

Well kids, I take my lumps when I deserve them.  And I take my bows when I deserve them.  Last week, I went 7-0, SEVEN AND ZERO!!!  Yep kids, TB under, Oak, KC under, Indy, Seattle, GB, and the Rams under ALL cashed. For the year, 54-39 for a whopping 58% for the year.  I did take the KC under on Thursday night which was busted with 7 seconds left in the game.  So we start 0-1 for the week and here we go.

Lock of the week is SF +4.5.  Yes, the numbers are insanely stacked against SF in past games. Seattle has been outgunned yard wise  5 out of their last6.  Niners crushed by Seattle last time they played but Niners outgained them by 127 yds.  Seattle is on a short week as well as 99% likely to make the playoffs so need to put the pedal to the metal.  Less motivation for the Seahawks and the number is right.  The line opened at 5 and now it’s 3.5 so you better snatch it up now before it gets below an advantageous spot.

SF +4.5

Next game is another where one team has the playoffs all but locked up but the other team has to fight to remain in the thick of it.  Dallas has won 5 straight, including an overtime thriller.  They’re on the road and maybe a little tired.  Dallas is going to win the division so don’t be surprised if they’re not gung ho.  Frank Reich already knows how to cover against the NFC east.  Colts 6-1 SU of late and 4-1 at home.  Again the line is at the right spot so it’s the time to grab…

Indy -2.5

Teaser time!  Remember, tease through 7 and 3.  The rest stop bathroom known as Kirk Cousins is home against Miami who just played their superbowl last week against the Pats.  Miami 2-9 ATS on the road and 2-3-1 ATS on the road.  Minnesota 17-7-1 at home ATS and 10-2 SU at home.  I’ve teased this from 7.5 down to 1.5 so it’s virtually a pick em.

Minnesota and Baltimore teased down to -1.5 each.

Last pick is another easy one, I hope. The mongrels from Philly head to LA and they’re trotting out Nick Foles. Philly hasn’t been scoring and now add that on to a pissed off Rams team that got diarrheaed on by the Bears. The Eagles aren’t scoring enough, 5/7 under of late. to bust this over so we’re going

Rams under 52.5

Bonus pick: 

Everyone and their slutty grandmother is pounding the Pittsburgh/Pats over.  It opened
at 49, now it’s 55.5.  Pats have been 5/6 under of late, 8/11 under on the road, and 4/6
when playing Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh has been 4/6 under of late.  Ben has cracked ribs to 
boot so I’m going to keep watching that number go up and then go 
Pittsburgh under 55.5 or more?

NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

Week 6 NFL Picks ATS

I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny.  I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week.  And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night.  What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining.  Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year.  Which makes me better than most of you at this.  And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch!  It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm.  We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes.  So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!

Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them.  Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time.  Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that.  But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS?  They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled.  Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it?  Sold.  Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside.  Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami.  I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans.  If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!  

Take the Steelers +2

The Rams couldn’t be hotter.  But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle.  What does LA have trouble with?  Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place.  Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently.  What do the RAMS have trouble doing?  Stopping the run.  Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week.  What does Denver do well?  Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack.  Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol.  Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow??  Yeah, they’re going to run the ball.  I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts.  The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late.  Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home.  But Denver is 6/9 under at home.  And Den is getting 7, a perfect number.  If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.

Take Den +7 and under 50.5

The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad.  Like, as bad as that movie, Tag.  DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once.  Well, right when I turned it off I did.  Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life.  Then I went back to frowning again.  This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home.  Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver.  Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel?  Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me.  I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better.  But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag.  Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again.  The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.

Take the Falcons -3.

Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall.  They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week.  This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game.  Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.

Titans +2.5

I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5  When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points.  And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.