Week 6 NFL Picks ATS

I hope you appreciated last week’s video with my buddy, English Jonny.  I hope you are able to look past the 3-3 weekend I had last week.  And I really hope you didn’t take the Giants under on Thursday night.  What timing, the MINUTE the game starts, it stops raining.  Which brings my total to 21-15 for the year, 60% for the year.  Which makes me better than most of you at this.  And if you want to hear who the Cold Cash/Hot Trash fantasy plays are for the week, check out my show on Twitch!  It’s called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber and we usually are on Fridays at 5pm.  We also have it in podcast form on Libsyn and very shortly, Spotify and iTunes.  So let’s get to this week’s FREEEE money picks!

Sometimes, the numbers blast you in the face with such force that you can’t help to ignore them.  Sometimes, these numbers force you to ignore other numbers and trends that have proven over longer periods of time.  Ben Roethlisberger stinks on the road, we all know that.  But did you know that Ben is 21-5 SU in the state of Ohio and 21-8 ATS?  They’re in Cincinnati, back to the scene where Ryan Shazier got pretzeled.  Oh yeah, we’re getting 2 points on top of it?  Sold.  Ben and the Steelers are coming around and yes, even the D finally closed its legs and stop letting everyone take a turn coming inside.  Cincinnati has had SEVERAL lucky wins: Indy, ATL, and last week against Miami.  I think this is the week their luck runs dry like Cloris Leachman’s privates. This case in point brought to you by: Alabama fans.  If there’s a Caribbean island that needs people wearing Oakley glasses on the back of their neck while wearing flips flops in the pool, it’s Alabama fans or it’s nothing!  

Take the Steelers +2

The Rams couldn’t be hotter.  But last week was the first week they didn’t cover in Seattle.  What does LA have trouble with?  Keeping the homeless people from shitting all over the place.  Fuck, I should’ve worded that differently.  What do the RAMS have trouble doing?  Stopping the run.  Chris Carson ran for over 100 against them last week.  What does Denver do well?  Run, they’re #2 in the league in rushing attack.  Oh, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Cooks are in concussion protocol.  Warm weather team coming into the Rockies…into snow??  Yeah, they’re going to run the ball.  I don’t see the Rams having those receivers rush into crazy action or snap counts.  The number is perfect so I’m going to toss out all the recent stats showing that Denver sucks of late.  Especially the 1-6-1 ATS line at home.  But Denver is 6/9 under at home.  And Den is getting 7, a perfect number.  If they’re down, they could back door it late or even keep it close throughout.

Take Den +7 and under 50.5

The Falcons are just bad on defense, like really bad.  Like, as bad as that movie, Tag.  DON’T watch it, I didn’t even smile once.  Well, right when I turned it off I did.  Then I realized I wasted 95 minutes of my life.  Then I went back to frowning again.  This week, the Falcons get the Bucs at home.  Jameis Winston is back after his suspension for touching an uber driver.  Have you ever had an uber driver that you just felt the urge to cop a feel?  Most of my uber drivers look like Carl Winslow so that’s a no for me.  I know I’m ignoring how the Bucs may be statistically better.  But goddamnit, I just cannot see them losing AGAIN and to a Bucs D which is as bad as that film, Tag.  Yep, that film is so bad, I referenced it again.  The number is right and I’ll be shocked if these idiots cannot cover 3.

Take the Falcons -3.

Lastly, Tennessee is 5-0 ATS at home, 7-3 overall.  They were a dropped TD away from covering and winning last week.  This is Baltimore’s 3rd straight road game and teams are 42% ATS in covering when it’s their 3rd straight road game.  Tennessee has a solid defense so I’ll take the home dog.

Titans +2.5

I gotta see how I do today but I kinda like the Pats getting revenge tonight at home against the Chiefs and tomorrow’s GB over 46.5  When Aaron Rodgers calls out their conservative play calling, expect points.  And I think the Niners will be chasing points which can help achieve that over.

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Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5

 

Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

NFL Picks week 6

3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1.  Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.  

Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore.  We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right?  Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference.  I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces.  I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates.  Sometimes you  can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys.  But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi

Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice.  I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night.  What’s the score at the half?  3-2.  Yep, you read that right.  30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game.  WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left.  Jesus Christ, I could lose this game.  Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score.  The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.

This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face.  Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark.  There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts.  So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits.  Let’s get to the picks!

My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it.  I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver.  Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression.  Hair, not bad ass-ness.  Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR.  Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too.  And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points?  I don’t.  I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out!  The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight.  Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS.  And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under.  Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.

I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.  

The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville.  The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute.  I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS.  Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.

Take the Rams +2.5

The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB.  And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep.  Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop.  I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.  

Take the Pats over 48

The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October.  They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit.  Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road.  Don’t be a hero, just win money.  This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.

Take the Saints -4.5

Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special.  Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home.  Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.

Take the Bucs -1.5

 

Week 4 NFL picks

So fall is here and dudes who have been caught cheating on their wives are forced to go apple picking will be missing on some quality football this weekend.  Key message: Don’t get caught and use a burner phone.  Last weekend was interesting to say this least.  I ended up taking Car under, Pats over, Jacksonville, GB, and AZ under this past weekend.  That puts me at 4-3 for the week, not bad.  10-9 on the year. This week, there aren’t many games that I’m liking.  Hence why there aren’t as many picks.

I’m breaking my own rule with my first pick which is NEVER bet on the NY Giants, except the under.  But goddamnit, they covered last week and could’ve won.  I just can’t see them going to Tamp-er (Mike Francesa voice) and losing 4 straight, ok?  This team probably jelled too late to make the playoffs but they’re too good to be THIS bad.  They’ve always done well in TB, TB is banged up, and they’ll be a ton of Giants fans there too.  And they’re getting 3 points?  Please.  They’ve been getting beat up in the press all week so they’re going to come out fired up.

Take the Gmen +3

I’m liking the Broncos because they A) are at home B) are coming off a loss and C) are 8-3 ATS vs Oakland.  I know Oakland does well on the road (10-4 ATS) but they didn’t last week in Washington.  Denver is 8-3-1 at home and I like them to bounce back.  You’re laying 3 which isn’t a big deal.  Would it surprise me if there was a push?  Not one bit.  

Take Denver -3

Dallas played monday night and looked sluggish to start but finished nicely to take down the Cardinals.  But not before they gave me a heart attack as I had the under with the Cardinals driving late.  Thankfully, Bruce Arians coaches well as Asians have manners when it comes to getting onto subways.  The Rams have had 10 days off after their Thursday offensive explosion to plan for Dallas.  Dallas D is banged up and the Rams D is nothing special.  Both teams can put up points and believe it or not, Goff is the 3rd rated QB in the NFL.  He’s already thrown as many TD as he has all of last year.  Expect points…I am.

Take Dallas over 48.5

I kind of like Cincy -3 and SD -2 but not betting them.  Can see it going that way though.

 

 

Week 3 NFL picks

It’s amazing what a changes in a week.  I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks.  Last week, 6-1.  The only loss was my lock of the week, of course.  Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover.  The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet.  It’s been a weird season thus far.  Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.  

I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game.  They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!!  When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout?  Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that.  Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!

The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points.  Can they win by 14?  Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that.  But the over 44 gets me tumescent.  Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home.  Gronk and Amendola are both a go.  NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points.  And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them.  Pats probably cover but I’m taking

Pats Over 44

I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers.  Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special.  But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment.  Who comes into town this week?  One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints.  I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road.  The Saints are now getting 5.5 points.  But the Saints defense is hot horseshit.  Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points?  But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread?  I have no idea but we do have another option.  Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina.  Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5.  Hence why I REALLY LIKE:

The under 46.5

The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there.  Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens.  And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream.  Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball!  Daddy, juice*”  *Denotes beer.  Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved.  But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week.  Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax.  Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax.  But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London.  They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc.  And they’re getting 3 points?  AND the numbers back me up?  You won’t hear me say this often but 

Give me the Jags +3

Denver is playing in Buffalo.  Both have great defenses and so-so offenses.  Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road.  Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back.  You know, when Denver had a offense.  Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points.  Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm.  Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.

Denver under 39

I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice.  The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years.  Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged.  I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it.  Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road.  But again, I’m not trusting either teams.  I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy.  Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under.  This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee.  Wacka, Wacka, Wacka.  (Shoots self in the face)

Take the under 42.5

The sharps are all OVER the Bengals.  They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town.  I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5.  Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full?  Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night?  Hope you had the over like I told you to.  Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS?  I do.  GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road.  Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20.  Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy.  Will Cincy get it together?  Maybe.  But not this week.  Death, taxes, and GB at home.

GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5

Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy.  I hope you had Indy like I told you to.  I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under.  Want a good laugh?  Watch Ezekiel try and tackle.  MANIACAL LAUGH.  Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.  Dallas went under 11/14 on the road.  AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas.  The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off.  AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home.  Tons of numbers to back my predictions of: 

AZ +3 and under 47.

The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road.  7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon.  Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday.  But Pitt has a great defense.  And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either.  Which is why I’m going with yet again,

The under 44

Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do

KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3

Last week, 6-1

This week 0-1 (Rams under)

YTD 6-6

NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

I’m back from Vegas and my liver wishes I had just shot in and left it to die in the desert.  We ate like kings and the Vegas 3 had a fucking blast.  Maybe one of these days, you’ll get an invite!  

If you took my picks last week, I wholeheartedly apologize.  The Pats shit the bed, the overs whiffed, the Giants were god awful, and the Rams destroyed that under themselves.  New week, new picks!  But first, remember that Comics Watching Comics is on Amazon Video!  Season 2 has just gone up and t-shirts are for sale.  To get one, contact me through the site.  I’m still working on a credit card link so bear with me.  I’m taking PayPal for the shirts which also accepts credit cards.

I’ll be goddamned if the Patriots don’t rebound in a big way in New Orleans this weekend.  The Pats have been off for 10 days to let this stew in their cheating brains.  Bellichek probably cut 4 guys on defense for letting the rookie RB, Hunt (Guess who sat him in TWO fantasy leagues.  At least I won 1 of them), stampede all over them.  You don’t think he’s had time to scheme against the Saints and shut down Brees; like the Vikings did on Monday night?  I don’t care Amendola is out, this is a statement game.  Pats are 8-1 ATS on the road of their last 9.  You can even take the over as when the Saints and Pats play, the over hits 7/9 times.  But I see Brady going into pure “fuck you” mode and they’re covering, come hell or high water, which is also a highly overrated film.

Take the Pats -6.5

Arizona looked nothing special against Detroit last week.  They also lost arguably the top RB for at least 2 months.  Indy is at home and I don’t see AZ covering.  AZ is 3-8 ATS out of their last 11.  2-5 ATS on the road.  They look old and the number (7) is right.

Take the Colts +7

I had these fuckers as part as an over last week and they didn’t hold up their end.  I do think that the Skins are due for a win and the Rams blowing out the Colts shouldn’t scare anyone.  Stats?  Sure.  Skins 4-0 ATS after a loss.  10-5 ATS in their last 15.  9-2 ATS on the road in their last 11.  Rams don’t have any kind of home field advantage.  Cousins rebounds nicely as everyone’s favorite politically incorrect team (Who cares about team names, go save people in hurricane areas instead of worry about that shit?) wins outright.

Take the Skins +2.5

Miami just had their bye earlier than they wanted.  Which also means they’ve had well over a week to plan against the Chargers.  You watch that Chargers game?  I did, from a blackjack table at the Cosmopolitan hotel while handing my chips slowly over to a dealer who was missing a tooth.  The Broncos should’ve covered that game with ease if it weren’t for a couple of weird plays.  And now SD is home this week against the Dolphins. Remind you, they’re now playing in a new (soccer) stadium in a new city where no one gives 2 shits about NFL football.  So no home field advantage.  Some may argue Miami may be rusty but I’m going to say they come bursting out at the seams.  Some stats, why the hell not?  Mia 8-3-1 in last 12 ATS.  4-2 ATS on the road.  And 8/9 games SD has played Mia has resulted in an under.  

Take Mia +3.5 and the under 45.5

I didn’t see much of the GB game as I didn’t have any money on it and apparently, I didn’t miss much.  I saw some of the Atlanta game and I saw the Bears make a late run at them, covering and almost winning.  But here’s what I do know: both teams score a shitload.  ATL at home hits the over 5/5.  GB is 7/8 hitting the over.  GB and ATL have hit the over 9/13.  GB has hit the over 4/6 when playing in ATL.  That’s enough for me.  This game has 31-28 written all over it.  

Take GB over 56

And now for the lock of the week: Seattle lost in GB last week and now they’re home against a hapless Niners team.  A divisional rival in their building reeks of trouble.  A divisional rival after a loss is even more trouble.  And yet again, more stats to prove it.  Sea is 5-0 ATS vs SF.  Sea is 11-1 ATS vs SF. SF is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16.  2-7-1 ATS on the road.  14 is a big number but do you see McCown doing much against an angry Seattle D?  I sure as fuck don’t.

Take Sea -14