Don’t look now, (just kidding, you better look) but your favorite NFL picks guy is on a bit of a rush: 7-3 last week, 16-6 the last 2 weeks, which takes me to 76-71-1. Pats are 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS overall. They give up the fewest PPG, 15.4, as well as 3rd in yards allowed. Pats also allowed 5-1 ATS against Indy, 8-0 SU, and 16-3-1 ATS in Indy. Yes, most are with Brady but what I’m drawing here is a comparison how Bellichick owns the Colts. Colts aren’t getting it done at home, 3-7 ATS but they’re 7-3 ATS of late Short story long, this is too many points to give a team that should be a slight favorite or pick em. But you know how I love giving myself an unfair competitive advantage to let’s tease them up to 8.5.
The Jets are worse than watching a woman give a rape confession; Jets allow an average of 166 yds per game so hopefully Myles Gaskin plays for all of you that have made the fantasy playoffs (4/4 leagues for this guy) The Dolphins are giving up 11 ppg since week 9 and now they get Zack Wilson who looks like Rita Wilson out there. Jets are 1-5 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against Miami, 1-6 ATS in Miami. Dolphins are white hot, 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. Let’s get this baby below a FG.
Pats +8.5 and Jets -2.5
Let’s call this one, “keep your butthole puckered for that backdoor cover.” This has to be the tantamount definition of “trap game” for the Cardinals as they face the Colts on Christmas next week. Lions are finished nursing they gaping wounds after going to Denver and I think that a banged up James Connor and no DeAndre Hopkins spell somewhat trouble for the Cardinals. And the Lions cover at home: 7-2 when getting 4 points or more. They’re also 4-1 ATS of late as well as 8-5 ATS this season. Cardinals do cover on the road, 7-0 ATS and 8-3 ATS of late but I can see Arizona taking their foot off the gas and cruise to a 2 TD victory. Let’s get this baby above 2.5 TDs
Second half of the teaser is an easy one, I think. As we know, Tomlin as home dog of late, 17-6-1 and 5-0-1 as a home. Tenn is 1-4 SU in Pitt and 2-6 SU but 7-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. Titans offense looks as broken any former girlfriend of Marilyn Manson and just like him, I’m locking Tennessee in a sex room until Derrick Henry comes back. Pitt at home is 4-0-1 SU of late and they’re fighting for their life. I have Pitt under 8.5 for the year and Titans to win division so let’s try and kill 3 birds with one stone. Pitt is getting 1.5 and let’s take the other 6 points and take it to….
Lions +18.5 and Pitt +7.5
Giants are 5-0-1 as a home under. Mike Glennon stinks and the Dallas defense is swarming on QBs like your Mom swarms me after I just scrub my balls. They’re also 6/7 under of late, 9/10 at home. Dallas has gone 6/7 under of late and Dak looked awful against the hapless Skins defense; including chucking up a pick 6 that got me home to a Wash +10 teaser. Giants are so lifeless that you’d think they’re doing their best Terry Shiavo impression. Too soon? Giants lose in an inglorious fashion, 27-10 and below…
Cowboys under 44.5
I like to fire in bets early in the week and I’d like to think most of the time it works. And when I saw Houston was getting 3, I said that is insane and the wrong team is favored. About 3 hours later, Urban Meyer gets fired. And of course, the line gets pounded upward so your old pal KG is going to get shitty closing line value. But Davis Mills through the ball around all over the Seattle Seahawks d and he can do this against the Jags defense as well. Houston 5-2 ATS against Jax, 5-1 SU in Jax, and 7-0 SU against Jax. If Trevor Lawrence get his helmet over that monstrous nose, congrats. But he still has win by more than 3 for me to lose this bet and the stats aren’t backing it up of late, 1-4 ATS, and Lawrence hasn’t thrown for more than 1 TD in 12 straight games. Jags haven’t scored more than 23 since their trip to London where they beat the Dolphins and then pressed their penises against double decker bus windows. I know firing Meyer can be big for the Jags but the talent on that field isn’t going to get it done.
Houston +3
Jags team total under 21.5
Why not take this in a teaser with another bet for a team that truly needs it? Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 road games while Den is 4-2 ATS of late. I think the Bengals keep it close and could win but doesn’t lose by more than a score.
Texans +10.5 and Bengals +7.5
Tell me which of these teams is going to lose and why: Bills after a gut punch loss and against a dogshit offense. Bucs home against a division rival who beat them on the road and they’re home now and their opponent’s coach is out w/Covid. Miami gets a home game against a team and coach who are more lost than a Des Moines Iowa farmer in Harlem.
ML parlay Bills, Bucs, Cards Mia
Edit:
Lost the Pats teaser last night so I grabbed the Dolphins to tease with the Bills: Mia -2.5 and -5.5
Kevin Gootee 