Tag: dallas cowboys

NFL Wild Card weekend 1/15/22 against the spread bets

Finished the season on a high, 7-5 and 5 straight winning weeks brings me to a total of 100-83-1 to 54.6% for the year, over the break even number of 52.5%. Cross those fingers as we hopefully walk up to CASH THOSE TICKETS

Tonight’s picks:

Cincy 1h under 24.5 and Cincy under 48.5

Vegas has gone under 4/6 of late and playing 5 quarters on a short week doesn’t help. Cincy has gone under 7/10 against the AFC west. A second year head coach and an interim head coach are going to come out conservative. Banged up Burrow also gives minor concern. I see a lot of running for both teams and can the ferocious pass rush of the Raiders be neutralized by the Bengals? Before last year’s expanded bracket, the under was 15-0-1 in #3 vs #6 matchups. Under is 26-11-1, 12-6 of late.

Pats first half under 22.5

Pats have gone under 4/5 on the road.Bills have gone under 7/10 in January. It’s going to be ZERO degrees tonight. Mac Jones grew up in FL and played in Bama, never in zero degrees so this will be interesting to see. On the flip side, Josh Allen has played 4 games below freezing and hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yds or achieved 56% completion rate in that weather. I gotta imagine Pats have the #1 defense on 3rd and 4th down while the Bills have the top run defense.

You know how many teams the Eagles beat that were over .500 this year? ONE, the Saints. And now they’re in TB, against the top run defense and all Philly does is run. Bucs are 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. Home favorite of a TD or more are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS. And if you think Tom Brady forgot how the Eagles beat him in a Superbowl, you’re sorely mistaken. I know there’s no Fournette but they have JPP and Shaq Barrett back on defense. At the same time, I’m not keen on laying 8.5 so I teased this game

Edit: Added Bills 2H +.5

First half of teaser: Tampa -2.5 Also Philly team total under 17.5, Gronk +115 to catch an anytime TD and Brate +440 to catch an anytime TD

Continuing on the theme of heavy favorites (no, not talking about your mom), I think the same number of scenarios where the Avengers said they beat Thanos is the same number that the Steelers have in KC. Ben looked worse than a kid with polio trying to dunk a basketball in a regulation sized hoop. Steelers got triple penetrated the first time they played and I know Tomlin as an underdog is fantastic but this KC freight train SHOULD barrel through the Steelers. Home favorites by 10 or more are 5-0 (See TB as well) KC 6-0 SU at home, 9-1 SU and 6-2 ATS of late. I’m pretty sure people don’t make money when they’re laying 12.5 in the NFL so let’s finish up the teaser.

Second half of teaser: Chiefs -6.5 and also Chiefs 1H -7

Road teams are 14-4 ATS and 15-3 SU. Dogs are 12-4-1 ATS in NFC wild card games and dogs in the past 4 seasons are 15-3. Here’s the big bullet, home favorites since 03 that are laying 7 or fewer are 14-28-1. Know where I’m going with this? SF is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Here’s the big factor, Niners are 7-3 SU on the road. I always talk about platinum Golden Corral member, Mike McCarthy, can fuck up boiling water. Dallas has beaten how many teams over .500? TWO. Chargers and the Pats. Not exactly bursting with confidence to take Dallas, are you? And guess who fired in at the right time? Me. And I’m willing to bet if you wait till kickoff, you can also get

Niners +3.5 and Niners team total over 23.5

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NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

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NFL playoffs picks ATS week 15 sports betting

Don’t look now, (just kidding, you better look) but your favorite NFL picks guy is on a bit of a rush: 7-3 last week, 16-6 the last 2 weeks, which takes me to 76-71-1. Pats are 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS overall. They give up the fewest PPG, 15.4, as well as 3rd in yards allowed. Pats also allowed 5-1 ATS against Indy, 8-0 SU, and 16-3-1 ATS in Indy. Yes, most are with Brady but what I’m drawing here is a comparison how Bellichick owns the Colts. Colts aren’t getting it done at home, 3-7 ATS but they’re 7-3 ATS of late Short story long, this is too many points to give a team that should be a slight favorite or pick em. But you know how I love giving myself an unfair competitive advantage to let’s tease them up to 8.5.

The Jets are worse than watching a woman give a rape confession; Jets allow an average of 166 yds per game so hopefully Myles Gaskin plays for all of you that have made the fantasy playoffs (4/4 leagues for this guy) The Dolphins are giving up 11 ppg since week 9 and now they get Zack Wilson who looks like Rita Wilson out there. Jets are 1-5 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against Miami, 1-6 ATS in Miami. Dolphins are white hot, 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. Let’s get this baby below a FG.

Pats +8.5 and Jets -2.5

Let’s call this one, “keep your butthole puckered for that backdoor cover.” This has to be the tantamount definition of “trap game” for the Cardinals as they face the Colts on Christmas next week. Lions are finished nursing they gaping wounds after going to Denver and I think that a banged up James Connor and no DeAndre Hopkins spell somewhat trouble for the Cardinals. And the Lions cover at home: 7-2 when getting 4 points or more. They’re also 4-1 ATS of late as well as 8-5 ATS this season. Cardinals do cover on the road, 7-0 ATS and 8-3 ATS of late but I can see Arizona taking their foot off the gas and cruise to a 2 TD victory. Let’s get this baby above 2.5 TDs

Second half of the teaser is an easy one, I think. As we know, Tomlin as home dog of late, 17-6-1 and 5-0-1 as a home. Tenn is 1-4 SU in Pitt and 2-6 SU but 7-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. Titans offense looks as broken any former girlfriend of Marilyn Manson and just like him, I’m locking Tennessee in a sex room until Derrick Henry comes back. Pitt at home is 4-0-1 SU of late and they’re fighting for their life. I have Pitt under 8.5 for the year and Titans to win division so let’s try and kill 3 birds with one stone. Pitt is getting 1.5 and let’s take the other 6 points and take it to….

Lions +18.5 and Pitt +7.5

Giants are 5-0-1 as a home under. Mike Glennon stinks and the Dallas defense is swarming on QBs like your Mom swarms me after I just scrub my balls. They’re also 6/7 under of late, 9/10 at home. Dallas has gone 6/7 under of late and Dak looked awful against the hapless Skins defense; including chucking up a pick 6 that got me home to a Wash +10 teaser. Giants are so lifeless that you’d think they’re doing their best Terry Shiavo impression. Too soon? Giants lose in an inglorious fashion, 27-10 and below…

Cowboys under 44.5

I like to fire in bets early in the week and I’d like to think most of the time it works. And when I saw Houston was getting 3, I said that is insane and the wrong team is favored. About 3 hours later, Urban Meyer gets fired. And of course, the line gets pounded upward so your old pal KG is going to get shitty closing line value. But Davis Mills through the ball around all over the Seattle Seahawks d and he can do this against the Jags defense as well. Houston 5-2 ATS against Jax, 5-1 SU in Jax, and 7-0 SU against Jax. If Trevor Lawrence get his helmet over that monstrous nose, congrats. But he still has win by more than 3 for me to lose this bet and the stats aren’t backing it up of late, 1-4 ATS, and Lawrence hasn’t thrown for more than 1 TD in 12 straight games. Jags haven’t scored more than 23 since their trip to London where they beat the Dolphins and then pressed their penises against double decker bus windows. I know firing Meyer can be big for the Jags but the talent on that field isn’t going to get it done.

Houston +3

Jags team total under 21.5

Why not take this in a teaser with another bet for a team that truly needs it? Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 road games while Den is 4-2 ATS of late. I think the Bengals keep it close and could win but doesn’t lose by more than a score.

Texans +10.5 and Bengals +7.5

Tell me which of these teams is going to lose and why: Bills after a gut punch loss and against a dogshit offense. Bucs home against a division rival who beat them on the road and they’re home now and their opponent’s coach is out w/Covid. Miami gets a home game against a team and coach who are more lost than a Des Moines Iowa farmer in Harlem.

ML parlay Bills, Bucs, Cards Mia

Edit:

Lost the Pats teaser last night so I grabbed the Dolphins to tease with the Bills: Mia -2.5 and -5.5

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NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

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Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

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NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

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NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

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NFL week 5 picks ATS 10/10/21

Good news, the new James Bond film was great. Bad news, who would’ve thought the Giants AND the Jets would’ve combined to fuck me in FOUR bets? Giants come back from down 11 to win in OT and the goddamn Jets pull an OT win off as well. Bringing me to a total of 22-19 for the year. I know, a long way from 66% ATS 2 weeks ago. I started off the week teasing Seattle to +8.5 with Minnesota. So Russ badly sprains his finger, gets taken out for Geno Smith, and the Rams backdoor my teaser by HALF A FUCKING POINT WITH A LATE, MEANINGLESS FIELD GOAL. Starting off 0-1, sigh. So let’s rally and pretend like I’m a terminally ill cancer patient who goes to Vegas for a final long weekend; blowing his bankroll with reckless abandon and going balls deep without rubbers or standards.

I’m calling my first bet the LOCK OF THE YEAR. KC FINALLY covered the spread this year against Philly and now they’re home against the Bills. The Chiefs defense is softer than my penis hearing Ani DiFranco or Tori Amos songs. Their ATS number is almost as Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s approval rating, 2-12-1 ATS of late and 1-7 ATS at home. Christ almighty, that’s atrocious. In come the Bills who are hotter than a pistol: 12-3 ATS of late, 11-2 SU. Last 2 games they lost were the AFC championship and week 1 against the hapless Steelers. So what the Chiefs are 1-5 ATS and SU agains the Chiefs. But I want you to explain to me how the Chiefs are laying 3 to the Bills? This game has 31-30 written all over it and I REALLY think the Bills win the game. At WORST, they lose and keep it to a FG or less. So I made my biggest bet of the year on a teaser with the Bills:

First leg of the teaser: Bills +9 and a second bet of Bills +3

This next leg of the CAN’T MISS teaser is quite simple: The Colts are trash. Yes, the got their first win in Miami but who gives a shit. Colts are 1-4 SU of late and against Baltimore. Colts are also 2-4 ATS against AFC and 0-6 against the AFC north but let’s look at the eye test, Wentz’s numbers are ok but his execution stinks. Jonathan Taylor, the RB, is underachieving. Now bring in the Ravens who are riding hot: 9-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. Also 7-2 ATS against AFC, 4-1 ATS against AFC south, 7-0 SU in October, and 7-1 SU as a favorite. Ravens at home Monday night are going to fast forward through the Colts like I fast forward through half of Howard Stern’s show. We get it, you’re scare of Corona, hate anti-vaxxers, and love the Bachelor. I’m skipping to whenever Ronnie the Limo Driver yells out, “CUUUUUNT!”

Second leg of can’t miss teaser, Ravens -1

Back to the money line parlays:

Pats and Ravens ML parlays

Pats/Ravens/TB

TB in Miami laying 10 is never a good idea so let’s through them in the pile with 2 other teams who are destined to win outright today.

Yours truly told you to tease down the Buccaneers last week to -1 and hot christ, did we need every one of those teaser points as Brady won by 2 in a monsoon. It was raining so hard you would’ve thought that they replayed the 2006 and 2011 Superbowls on the jumbotron at Gilette stadium and those were the tears of Pats fans. Patriots go down to Houston where the city is generic and the football team is an absentee father. Hey, did you know Bellichik is 22-6 against rookie QBs? And good ol Darth Hoodie has lost TWO straight games? What’s my prediction for the Pats/Houston game? Paaaaain. Pats 8-4 ATS against Houston and 8-2 SU. And Houston numbers? 1-4 SU at home of late, 1-6 SU vs AFC, and 1-6 ATS in October. To quote Chris Russo, I’d be shocked…shocked…SHOCKED if the Pats didn’t run them out of the building. But I sure as hell wouldn’t lay 8.5, especially on the road…ESPECIALLY when they’re down 4 offensive linemen. I put this bet in 3 days ago but I think you know where this is going…

First leg of teaser: Pats down to -2.5

The next leg of a teaser JUMPED out at me. The Green Bay/Cincy over under is 50.5 and I’m floored it hasn’t skyrocketed. Cincy is getting Tee Higging back but Joe Mixon is banged up. Jaire Alexander is out for GB and that defense is worse than Nanette’s Netflix special. Pack have gone over 6/8 of late but the Bengals are 4/6 under at home and 6/7 vs NFC. Again, I’d be SHOCKED if this game didn’t have some points scored and when you get the 6 points to play with, 44.5 is AMAZINGLY easily to attain. That’s 24-21 and the way Burrow and Rodgers are slinging it around like Megan Fox will when she dumps be when she dumps the tiny human Rorsharch test, Travis Barker. Unless he has a drumstick hanging between his legs on that 135 lb body, I can’t see him wowing her with witticisms.

Second leg of teaser: GB over to 44.5

Carolina got smoked by Dallas like their mediocre bbq sauce. Sorry kids, it’s KC or Texas style BBQ or you’re bringing Dominos to a discussion about pizza. As of of Saturday night, McCaffrey is doubtful. You know what else is doubtful? The Eagles defense showing up and playing a competitive game. Cause they’ve let up 80 points in 2 games. Philly and everyone not named Dallas are 1-2 in the NFC east, amazing. Eagles 2-5 ATS of late, 1-7 ATS on the road. Carolina on the other hand has Sam Darnold playing out of his mind; did you know he’s the NFL rushing TD leader right now? Which continually proves the Jets can fuck up boiling water. Panthers 5-2 ATS of late and 12-5 SU vs the NFC East. And they’re 4-2 ATS in week 5. This defense is like an apple you’re about to pick with your girlfriend in an orchard because you got caught cheating on her. Cause there’s no man alive who voluntarily wants to go apple picking unless they got caught up in some shit. Also, the Eagles/Panthers have gone over 4/5

Carolina -3 and over 44.5, 2 separate bets

Vikings had a hell of a time with Cleveland last week. No, not helping Cleveland people fit in size 38 waisted pants but that defense ate Kirk Cousins the fuck up. Lions may be without Sewell, their brand new OT. They’re definitely without their top corner, their top pass rusher, and TJ Hockenson is banged up. I HAVE to think the Vikes bounce back, despite Dalvin Cook questionable. Let’s cut the horseshit:

Teaser: Vikings to -2.5 and Panthers over 38

Vegas Raiders and their number one fan, jersey name Raider Pussy 1 (wish I got a pic of it to share with you fine people), had a rough loss Monday night and missed my over tease with a late Carr pick. Call me square but Christ, do you trust Justin Fields in Vegas? Didn’t look good the last few weeks cause shit, they BARELY won against the Lions. Lions have FOUR red zone turnovers last week and the Bears won by 10. THANK GOD I did a 7 point teaser with the Lions and Vikes as I covered by .5. Bears are 2-4 ATS of late and 2-6 ATS on the road. Vegas stats don’t back up the play: 3-7 ATS of late, 1-5 SU in October, 2-4 ATS in week 5, but 4-1 SU. No David Montgomery either so it’s Damien Williams on the ground and Darnell Mooney/Allen Robinson in the air. I don’t think the Bears stand a chance and the number is right.

Oakland -5.5

So the Giants and Jets decided to do their “Requiem for a Dream” impression and make me take a double ended dildo by winning OT games last week. And as a Giants fan, I’ve seen this movie before. Giants win a game, get confidence, and start covering against the spread or even, gasp, win! Giants went 2-0 ATS last year against Dallas, winning 1 and ALMOST won both. Now, the Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS against NFC. Dallas is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU of late. But Dallas 2-5 ATS against NFC East, 1-4 ATS in October, and 3-6 SU in week 5. Would you believe it if the Giants won the game? Not that crazy. Would you believe if the Giants lost but kept it close? EASILY. Could they get blown out? Sure but not likely the way the offense is starting to click.

Giants +7

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NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

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NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

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