NFL week 5 picks ATS 10/10/21

Good news, the new James Bond film was great. Bad news, who would’ve thought the Giants AND the Jets would’ve combined to fuck me in FOUR bets? Giants come back from down 11 to win in OT and the goddamn Jets pull an OT win off as well. Bringing me to a total of 22-19 for the year. I know, a long way from 66% ATS 2 weeks ago. I started off the week teasing Seattle to +8.5 with Minnesota. So Russ badly sprains his finger, gets taken out for Geno Smith, and the Rams backdoor my teaser by HALF A FUCKING POINT WITH A LATE, MEANINGLESS FIELD GOAL. Starting off 0-1, sigh. So let’s rally and pretend like I’m a terminally ill cancer patient who goes to Vegas for a final long weekend; blowing his bankroll with reckless abandon and going balls deep without rubbers or standards.

I’m calling my first bet the LOCK OF THE YEAR. KC FINALLY covered the spread this year against Philly and now they’re home against the Bills. The Chiefs defense is softer than my penis hearing Ani DiFranco or Tori Amos songs. Their ATS number is almost as Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s approval rating, 2-12-1 ATS of late and 1-7 ATS at home. Christ almighty, that’s atrocious. In come the Bills who are hotter than a pistol: 12-3 ATS of late, 11-2 SU. Last 2 games they lost were the AFC championship and week 1 against the hapless Steelers. So what the Chiefs are 1-5 ATS and SU agains the Chiefs. But I want you to explain to me how the Chiefs are laying 3 to the Bills? This game has 31-30 written all over it and I REALLY think the Bills win the game. At WORST, they lose and keep it to a FG or less. So I made my biggest bet of the year on a teaser with the Bills:

First leg of the teaser: Bills +9 and a second bet of Bills +3

This next leg of the CAN’T MISS teaser is quite simple: The Colts are trash. Yes, the got their first win in Miami but who gives a shit. Colts are 1-4 SU of late and against Baltimore. Colts are also 2-4 ATS against AFC and 0-6 against the AFC north but let’s look at the eye test, Wentz’s numbers are ok but his execution stinks. Jonathan Taylor, the RB, is underachieving. Now bring in the Ravens who are riding hot: 9-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. Also 7-2 ATS against AFC, 4-1 ATS against AFC south, 7-0 SU in October, and 7-1 SU as a favorite. Ravens at home Monday night are going to fast forward through the Colts like I fast forward through half of Howard Stern’s show. We get it, you’re scare of Corona, hate anti-vaxxers, and love the Bachelor. I’m skipping to whenever Ronnie the Limo Driver yells out, “CUUUUUNT!”

Second leg of can’t miss teaser, Ravens -1

Back to the money line parlays:

Pats and Ravens ML parlays

Pats/Ravens/TB

TB in Miami laying 10 is never a good idea so let’s through them in the pile with 2 other teams who are destined to win outright today.

Yours truly told you to tease down the Buccaneers last week to -1 and hot christ, did we need every one of those teaser points as Brady won by 2 in a monsoon. It was raining so hard you would’ve thought that they replayed the 2006 and 2011 Superbowls on the jumbotron at Gilette stadium and those were the tears of Pats fans. Patriots go down to Houston where the city is generic and the football team is an absentee father. Hey, did you know Bellichik is 22-6 against rookie QBs? And good ol Darth Hoodie has lost TWO straight games? What’s my prediction for the Pats/Houston game? Paaaaain. Pats 8-4 ATS against Houston and 8-2 SU. And Houston numbers? 1-4 SU at home of late, 1-6 SU vs AFC, and 1-6 ATS in October. To quote Chris Russo, I’d be shocked…shocked…SHOCKED if the Pats didn’t run them out of the building. But I sure as hell wouldn’t lay 8.5, especially on the road…ESPECIALLY when they’re down 4 offensive linemen. I put this bet in 3 days ago but I think you know where this is going…

First leg of teaser: Pats down to -2.5

The next leg of a teaser JUMPED out at me. The Green Bay/Cincy over under is 50.5 and I’m floored it hasn’t skyrocketed. Cincy is getting Tee Higging back but Joe Mixon is banged up. Jaire Alexander is out for GB and that defense is worse than Nanette’s Netflix special. Pack have gone over 6/8 of late but the Bengals are 4/6 under at home and 6/7 vs NFC. Again, I’d be SHOCKED if this game didn’t have some points scored and when you get the 6 points to play with, 44.5 is AMAZINGLY easily to attain. That’s 24-21 and the way Burrow and Rodgers are slinging it around like Megan Fox will when she dumps be when she dumps the tiny human Rorsharch test, Travis Barker. Unless he has a drumstick hanging between his legs on that 135 lb body, I can’t see him wowing her with witticisms.

Second leg of teaser: GB over to 44.5

Carolina got smoked by Dallas like their mediocre bbq sauce. Sorry kids, it’s KC or Texas style BBQ or you’re bringing Dominos to a discussion about pizza. As of of Saturday night, McCaffrey is doubtful. You know what else is doubtful? The Eagles defense showing up and playing a competitive game. Cause they’ve let up 80 points in 2 games. Philly and everyone not named Dallas are 1-2 in the NFC east, amazing. Eagles 2-5 ATS of late, 1-7 ATS on the road. Carolina on the other hand has Sam Darnold playing out of his mind; did you know he’s the NFL rushing TD leader right now? Which continually proves the Jets can fuck up boiling water. Panthers 5-2 ATS of late and 12-5 SU vs the NFC East. And they’re 4-2 ATS in week 5. This defense is like an apple you’re about to pick with your girlfriend in an orchard because you got caught cheating on her. Cause there’s no man alive who voluntarily wants to go apple picking unless they got caught up in some shit. Also, the Eagles/Panthers have gone over 4/5

Carolina -3 and over 44.5, 2 separate bets

Vikings had a hell of a time with Cleveland last week. No, not helping Cleveland people fit in size 38 waisted pants but that defense ate Kirk Cousins the fuck up. Lions may be without Sewell, their brand new OT. They’re definitely without their top corner, their top pass rusher, and TJ Hockenson is banged up. I HAVE to think the Vikes bounce back, despite Dalvin Cook questionable. Let’s cut the horseshit:

Teaser: Vikings to -2.5 and Panthers over 38

Vegas Raiders and their number one fan, jersey name Raider Pussy 1 (wish I got a pic of it to share with you fine people), had a rough loss Monday night and missed my over tease with a late Carr pick. Call me square but Christ, do you trust Justin Fields in Vegas? Didn’t look good the last few weeks cause shit, they BARELY won against the Lions. Lions have FOUR red zone turnovers last week and the Bears won by 10. THANK GOD I did a 7 point teaser with the Lions and Vikes as I covered by .5. Bears are 2-4 ATS of late and 2-6 ATS on the road. Vegas stats don’t back up the play: 3-7 ATS of late, 1-5 SU in October, 2-4 ATS in week 5, but 4-1 SU. No David Montgomery either so it’s Damien Williams on the ground and Darnell Mooney/Allen Robinson in the air. I don’t think the Bears stand a chance and the number is right.

Oakland -5.5

So the Giants and Jets decided to do their “Requiem for a Dream” impression and make me take a double ended dildo by winning OT games last week. And as a Giants fan, I’ve seen this movie before. Giants win a game, get confidence, and start covering against the spread or even, gasp, win! Giants went 2-0 ATS last year against Dallas, winning 1 and ALMOST won both. Now, the Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS against NFC. Dallas is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU of late. But Dallas 2-5 ATS against NFC East, 1-4 ATS in October, and 3-6 SU in week 5. Would you believe it if the Giants won the game? Not that crazy. Would you believe if the Giants lost but kept it close? EASILY. Could they get blown out? Sure but not likely the way the offense is starting to click.

Giants +7

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL Week 13 against the spread picks

Heidy-ho neighborinos. 3-3 last week AGAIN, ugh. The Giants got backdoored, that was a gut punch. But being first place as a Giants fan at THIS point in the season? I would’ve turned down +900 odds if you would’ve offered a bet the Giants would be in first at any point in the season after week 2. Enough crowing about being in the first in the rhino shit NFC east division. Anthony Lynn is the worst coach in the NFL BY FAR. Forget Adam Gase for a second; Lynn is the worst clock managing, situation calling HC with last week’s gaffe. Remember, I LOVED the Chargers over teased down. 4th and 27 at the 50 down by 10 and Herbert gets a miraculous Hail Mary. So Chargers have 10 seconds and no time outs. These dumb dildos try to RUN it, not once, but TWICE. Throw the goddamn ball once, maybe twice. And then kick the FG to cut it to 7. (Which would’ve put us at the over). But no, fuckface Lynn doesn’t do it and I lost. So I had to tease GB with Sea which thankfully hit. And for those who listened to me and teased Seattle down to below a FG, you’re thanking me now. Cause if you took them at -6, that was one of the worst backdoor pushes you’ll ever see. 38-33-2 for the year, 53.5% for the year which is just above break even (52.5%), let’s keep climbing.

The Titans are in the bottom 5 of pass rushing teams. Browns are 11-7 SU against teams in bottom third in pass rush. They also have a 9.7 YPA against bottom 5 pass rush teams. Cleveland 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS on the road. What does that mean? Take them as a dog, not as a favorite. Cleveland has one of the top rushing attacks and Baker can play well when the opposing team isn’t blitzing him like when an Instagram model posts thirst trap pics. I think 6 is wayyyy too high and the Titans defense is putrid. Cleveland could win but EASILY keep it close the entire time or backdoor it.

I locked in 2 days ago, Cle +6

Colt McCoy, cool porno name, bad QB. But that’s whose under center after Danny Jones strains a hamstring. Am I here to play loyalist and take my Giants and the points, being they’re AMAZING ATS record as a dog? FOH. I am here to say the Giants won’t be scoring much, as they usually don’t. Plus, they have a good defense as we know. They’re going to lose and it may be kinda close. I expect a lot of running and dump offs which obviously translates to a lot of time taken off the clock. Giants are 4/6 under of late and Sea has gone under 4/6 vs NFC. Weather is supposed to be fine so I’m taking…

Giants under 47.5

Completely forgot how Shanahan owns McVay in last week’s Rams pick. However, Rams are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS off a loss and McVay is 6-0 since taking over the Rams. Let’s also note the Rams are 5-0 in Zona so this is more of the same thing; divisional rival owning one another. Rams D allowing 15.1 rushing yds to opposing defenses, lowest in NFL. Let’s add a dash of a Kyler Murray shoulder issue with a sprinkle of the Cardinals have been BAD of late, 1-4 ATS. And that one…was the hail mary game against Buffalo. Too many numbers on the side of the Rams and a few books have Rams -2.5 at this time but I feel comfortable taking…

Rams -2.5

The last time the Raiders came to the east coast to the play the Jets, they got anally swagglefoosed. Anal Swagglefoose sounds like a great punk band name or gay porn title, tres ja lies, Clarisse. Vegas was embarrassed last week in Atlanta. I can’t see Vegas losing another one; I can’t see them losing to the Jets again. Vegas is 4-1 of late, 4-2 ATS against Jets. 6-2 ATS on the road but 0-6 SU at the Jets. Jets 3-8 of late ATS and Gase is just working out the string until he gets fired 30 minutes after the last game of the season. Can the Raiders get backdoored laying 8? You betcha as they say in Wisconsin. Raiders win but let’s not get fucked like a bunch of you did on Monday night. I locked it in when it was 9 but I teased to down to..

Raiders -3

What else are are going to tease it with? Nothing puts a smile on my face more than Philly losing and me winning at their expense. Philly heads to Green Bay and I know this is going to sound like Squaresville but let’s look at facts. Packers 8/11 over 30 ppg of late. They’re 14-4 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. GB is 2-5 ATS home against Philly but Philly 2-5 ATS and SU against GB of their last 7. Philly 4-8 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS on the road. Wentz 27th in QBR and no more than 60% completion in his last 7 games. GB has a decent pass rush and Philly doesn’t run near as much as they used to. 8 is also a high number and we know Philly can backdoor anyone because Doug Pederson kicks PATs like Philly fans avoid Zubaz pants and hoodies at bars. Can the Packers cover less than a FG? You betcha. So this is an EASY second leg of the teaser. I jumped the gun too early again when it was GB -8.5 so leg number 2 of the teaser is…

GB -2.5

This last pick is going to have strings attached. IF Cam Newton doesn’t play, do not take this action. I already locked in before knowing he had an injury designation (questionable but expected to play) and I should’ve because Cam gets hurt if someone farts in his general direction. Again, let’s look at facts. You know what Bill Bellichick’s winning % is against 1st year QBs? 65%. So Justin Herbert is going to have a tough day like Michael Douglas did in Falling Down. In a battle of coaches, it’s Bellichick vs Anthony Lynn. This is Mike Tyson vs the Sherminator from American Pie. BB owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU and ATS but those are obviously with Brady. Pats are 1-4 ATS on the road which doesn’t help; except for these facts: Chargers are 0-5 ATS of late, 2-8 SU in 10. 3-8 ATS at home. If ANYONE can fuck up a cup of coffee, it’s Anthony Lynn. You’re giving me 1.5 points? You don’t think they can’t win outright and of course, win with a last minute FG? Why not. And again, this is IF Cam plays.

Pats +1.5

Houston 4-8 ATS and SU of late. Houston 0-7-1 home against the Colts of late. Colts just got violated like an SJW watching American History X. Colts are 7-3 SU of late, 6-1 vs You, 5-2 SU against Houston. Colts missing their left tackle but the Texans lost their biggest receiver, Will Fuller, due to steroids for the year. Colts own them plus on the bounce back.

Colts -3

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 10 ATS picks

Nothing to say but a a disappointing last 2 weeks here and believe me, no one more broken up about this than me. 2-3 last week, bringing me to a total of 29-25 and 54% for the year. We’re slightly above the break even point of 52.5% so I’m be damned if I fall to that level. But before we get into the picks, a shameless plug. If you haven’t bought tickets yet for our live Gutting the Sacred Cow show, please do so. And don’t worry, you’ll get refunded if Covid shuts everything down. I’m running low on time so no horseshit, here we go. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

NEVER bet the NY Giants…unless you’re getting 10 or more points. Yes, Philly is healthier with a possible Miles Sanders return. Philly of late, 3-6 ATS, 2-5 ATS against Giants. Giants are a shocking 5-1 ATS in last 6 with a bunch of blown leads, including 1 against Philly. Line is 4, tease them to 10. And for some reason, I think they could win.

First half of the teaser Giants +10

Niners are indeed banged up but I think we’re getting too much with the number. Saints just played a perfect game against the Bucs and they may get caught looking ahead. Niners are 5-1-1 against NO and 10-3 SU on the road. Saints are 2-5 ATS in last 7. I teased the Niners to +15.5, I don’t think they lose by more than 2 TDs.

Second half Niners +15.5

There is a wind warning in Cleveland, up to 60 mph. Texans are ABYSMAL in the run plus they’re getting Chubb back. They’re gonna take less chances with Baker fresh off the Covid list. Browns last 8/9 have gone UNDER against Houston and under 6/7 in November.

Teased Browns under to 51.5

Bills over 7/9 of late and 7/7 against NFC west. AZ over 5/6 against Buff and 5/5 in November. Both defenses stink so let’s bring that number down to below 50.

Teased Bills over to 49.5

Arizona disappointed me on 2 tickets last week and again, that defense stinks. They’re ripe for a backdoor, let alone losing outright. AZ 5-14-1 SU at home and 3-6 ATS against AFC east. Bills 6-1 ATS against AZ, 7-2 SU of late. Give me more than a TD against a porous defense, done.

Teased Bills to +9

Chargers have been the heartbreak team of the last 2 years. They’ve lost 3 games when having a lead of 17 or more. They should’ve won last week against the Raiders with a late TD that got called off. Chargers are 4-9 ATS of late, Miami 6-1 of late and 5-1 at home. But I think the Chargers do not lose by more than a TD. They’ll find a way to fuck it up late but not by more than 7. BTW, Herbert one of the best against the blitz and Miami blitzes ~40% of the time.

Teased Chargers to +8

Pats BARELY beat the Jets, thank god I teased them to 1.5 Bal 13-5-1 of late, 17-3 SU of late, and 10-0 SU on the road. Also, 6-0 ATS against AFC east. Pats are 1-4 ATS and SU of late. 2-5 ATS of late as well but we’re not going to get cute, we’re teasing this one to…

Teased Ravens to .5

Denver defense stinks as does the Raiders defense. Broncos over 4/5 of late, Raiders over 7/8 of late. Lock is getting a ton of garbage time fantasy and regular points. Den bottom 5 in sack and QB hit rate. Oakland no slouch…themselves.

Teased Den Over to 44.5

Haven’t locked in yet but will probably take the Rams

McVay 4-1 against Sea. Seattle 1-5 SU in LA. Rams 6-3 SU of late, 5-0 SU at home