2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL Week 13 against the spread picks

Heidy-ho neighborinos. 3-3 last week AGAIN, ugh. The Giants got backdoored, that was a gut punch. But being first place as a Giants fan at THIS point in the season? I would’ve turned down +900 odds if you would’ve offered a bet the Giants would be in first at any point in the season after week 2. Enough crowing about being in the first in the rhino shit NFC east division. Anthony Lynn is the worst coach in the NFL BY FAR. Forget Adam Gase for a second; Lynn is the worst clock managing, situation calling HC with last week’s gaffe. Remember, I LOVED the Chargers over teased down. 4th and 27 at the 50 down by 10 and Herbert gets a miraculous Hail Mary. So Chargers have 10 seconds and no time outs. These dumb dildos try to RUN it, not once, but TWICE. Throw the goddamn ball once, maybe twice. And then kick the FG to cut it to 7. (Which would’ve put us at the over). But no, fuckface Lynn doesn’t do it and I lost. So I had to tease GB with Sea which thankfully hit. And for those who listened to me and teased Seattle down to below a FG, you’re thanking me now. Cause if you took them at -6, that was one of the worst backdoor pushes you’ll ever see. 38-33-2 for the year, 53.5% for the year which is just above break even (52.5%), let’s keep climbing.

The Titans are in the bottom 5 of pass rushing teams. Browns are 11-7 SU against teams in bottom third in pass rush. They also have a 9.7 YPA against bottom 5 pass rush teams. Cleveland 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS on the road. What does that mean? Take them as a dog, not as a favorite. Cleveland has one of the top rushing attacks and Baker can play well when the opposing team isn’t blitzing him like when an Instagram model posts thirst trap pics. I think 6 is wayyyy too high and the Titans defense is putrid. Cleveland could win but EASILY keep it close the entire time or backdoor it.

I locked in 2 days ago, Cle +6

Colt McCoy, cool porno name, bad QB. But that’s whose under center after Danny Jones strains a hamstring. Am I here to play loyalist and take my Giants and the points, being they’re AMAZING ATS record as a dog? FOH. I am here to say the Giants won’t be scoring much, as they usually don’t. Plus, they have a good defense as we know. They’re going to lose and it may be kinda close. I expect a lot of running and dump offs which obviously translates to a lot of time taken off the clock. Giants are 4/6 under of late and Sea has gone under 4/6 vs NFC. Weather is supposed to be fine so I’m taking…

Giants under 47.5

Completely forgot how Shanahan owns McVay in last week’s Rams pick. However, Rams are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS off a loss and McVay is 6-0 since taking over the Rams. Let’s also note the Rams are 5-0 in Zona so this is more of the same thing; divisional rival owning one another. Rams D allowing 15.1 rushing yds to opposing defenses, lowest in NFL. Let’s add a dash of a Kyler Murray shoulder issue with a sprinkle of the Cardinals have been BAD of late, 1-4 ATS. And that one…was the hail mary game against Buffalo. Too many numbers on the side of the Rams and a few books have Rams -2.5 at this time but I feel comfortable taking…

Rams -2.5

The last time the Raiders came to the east coast to the play the Jets, they got anally swagglefoosed. Anal Swagglefoose sounds like a great punk band name or gay porn title, tres ja lies, Clarisse. Vegas was embarrassed last week in Atlanta. I can’t see Vegas losing another one; I can’t see them losing to the Jets again. Vegas is 4-1 of late, 4-2 ATS against Jets. 6-2 ATS on the road but 0-6 SU at the Jets. Jets 3-8 of late ATS and Gase is just working out the string until he gets fired 30 minutes after the last game of the season. Can the Raiders get backdoored laying 8? You betcha as they say in Wisconsin. Raiders win but let’s not get fucked like a bunch of you did on Monday night. I locked it in when it was 9 but I teased to down to..

Raiders -3

What else are are going to tease it with? Nothing puts a smile on my face more than Philly losing and me winning at their expense. Philly heads to Green Bay and I know this is going to sound like Squaresville but let’s look at facts. Packers 8/11 over 30 ppg of late. They’re 14-4 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. GB is 2-5 ATS home against Philly but Philly 2-5 ATS and SU against GB of their last 7. Philly 4-8 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS on the road. Wentz 27th in QBR and no more than 60% completion in his last 7 games. GB has a decent pass rush and Philly doesn’t run near as much as they used to. 8 is also a high number and we know Philly can backdoor anyone because Doug Pederson kicks PATs like Philly fans avoid Zubaz pants and hoodies at bars. Can the Packers cover less than a FG? You betcha. So this is an EASY second leg of the teaser. I jumped the gun too early again when it was GB -8.5 so leg number 2 of the teaser is…

GB -2.5

This last pick is going to have strings attached. IF Cam Newton doesn’t play, do not take this action. I already locked in before knowing he had an injury designation (questionable but expected to play) and I should’ve because Cam gets hurt if someone farts in his general direction. Again, let’s look at facts. You know what Bill Bellichick’s winning % is against 1st year QBs? 65%. So Justin Herbert is going to have a tough day like Michael Douglas did in Falling Down. In a battle of coaches, it’s Bellichick vs Anthony Lynn. This is Mike Tyson vs the Sherminator from American Pie. BB owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU and ATS but those are obviously with Brady. Pats are 1-4 ATS on the road which doesn’t help; except for these facts: Chargers are 0-5 ATS of late, 2-8 SU in 10. 3-8 ATS at home. If ANYONE can fuck up a cup of coffee, it’s Anthony Lynn. You’re giving me 1.5 points? You don’t think they can’t win outright and of course, win with a last minute FG? Why not. And again, this is IF Cam plays.

Pats +1.5

Houston 4-8 ATS and SU of late. Houston 0-7-1 home against the Colts of late. Colts just got violated like an SJW watching American History X. Colts are 7-3 SU of late, 6-1 vs You, 5-2 SU against Houston. Colts missing their left tackle but the Texans lost their biggest receiver, Will Fuller, due to steroids for the year. Colts own them plus on the bounce back.

Colts -3

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 10 ATS picks

Nothing to say but a a disappointing last 2 weeks here and believe me, no one more broken up about this than me. 2-3 last week, bringing me to a total of 29-25 and 54% for the year. We’re slightly above the break even point of 52.5% so I’m be damned if I fall to that level. But before we get into the picks, a shameless plug. If you haven’t bought tickets yet for our live Gutting the Sacred Cow show, please do so. And don’t worry, you’ll get refunded if Covid shuts everything down. I’m running low on time so no horseshit, here we go. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

NEVER bet the NY Giants…unless you’re getting 10 or more points. Yes, Philly is healthier with a possible Miles Sanders return. Philly of late, 3-6 ATS, 2-5 ATS against Giants. Giants are a shocking 5-1 ATS in last 6 with a bunch of blown leads, including 1 against Philly. Line is 4, tease them to 10. And for some reason, I think they could win.

First half of the teaser Giants +10

Niners are indeed banged up but I think we’re getting too much with the number. Saints just played a perfect game against the Bucs and they may get caught looking ahead. Niners are 5-1-1 against NO and 10-3 SU on the road. Saints are 2-5 ATS in last 7. I teased the Niners to +15.5, I don’t think they lose by more than 2 TDs.

Second half Niners +15.5

There is a wind warning in Cleveland, up to 60 mph. Texans are ABYSMAL in the run plus they’re getting Chubb back. They’re gonna take less chances with Baker fresh off the Covid list. Browns last 8/9 have gone UNDER against Houston and under 6/7 in November.

Teased Browns under to 51.5

Bills over 7/9 of late and 7/7 against NFC west. AZ over 5/6 against Buff and 5/5 in November. Both defenses stink so let’s bring that number down to below 50.

Teased Bills over to 49.5

Arizona disappointed me on 2 tickets last week and again, that defense stinks. They’re ripe for a backdoor, let alone losing outright. AZ 5-14-1 SU at home and 3-6 ATS against AFC east. Bills 6-1 ATS against AZ, 7-2 SU of late. Give me more than a TD against a porous defense, done.

Teased Bills to +9

Chargers have been the heartbreak team of the last 2 years. They’ve lost 3 games when having a lead of 17 or more. They should’ve won last week against the Raiders with a late TD that got called off. Chargers are 4-9 ATS of late, Miami 6-1 of late and 5-1 at home. But I think the Chargers do not lose by more than a TD. They’ll find a way to fuck it up late but not by more than 7. BTW, Herbert one of the best against the blitz and Miami blitzes ~40% of the time.

Teased Chargers to +8

Pats BARELY beat the Jets, thank god I teased them to 1.5 Bal 13-5-1 of late, 17-3 SU of late, and 10-0 SU on the road. Also, 6-0 ATS against AFC east. Pats are 1-4 ATS and SU of late. 2-5 ATS of late as well but we’re not going to get cute, we’re teasing this one to…

Teased Ravens to .5

Denver defense stinks as does the Raiders defense. Broncos over 4/5 of late, Raiders over 7/8 of late. Lock is getting a ton of garbage time fantasy and regular points. Den bottom 5 in sack and QB hit rate. Oakland no slouch…themselves.

Teased Den Over to 44.5

Haven’t locked in yet but will probably take the Rams

McVay 4-1 against Sea. Seattle 1-5 SU in LA. Rams 6-3 SU of late, 5-0 SU at home

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5

NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3