There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander. You CAN’T lose. You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs. The dealer busts. EUPHORIA. You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in. SPIKE OF ADRENALINE. You can’t call fast enough. You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator. YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH. Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat. “There’s a flip side to this coin.” You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21. COLD PANG OF DESPAIR. You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in. As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight. ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS. You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged. Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there?? COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.
And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me. 5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win. Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD. Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.
Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250. Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL. Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once. No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.
Week 12, here we go. Diiiiiicks out.
Lock of the week is:
I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.)
that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5. I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more. Why? Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass. Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL. Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass. So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up. Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.” The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina. More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info. Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina. And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS. I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with
Taking Carolina -3
The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had. And who could blame me? When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone? When Obama was president. When it was still ok to be a straight white guy. When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed. Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants. Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary? Sign me up. Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving. Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games. The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday. The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants. Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS. Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA. Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points. And 47 is low for today’s NFL. Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:
Giants over 47. And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that. That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5
Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this. I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point. No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease. Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5 Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now? Emily Ratajkowski. Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo. I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth. Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late. Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs. But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing? The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver. Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home. I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.
Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5
Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings. God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them. My answer? Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time. Here’s why. They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down. Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE. Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road. Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year. If they lose this week, he could be gone monday. And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points. The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing. And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday. Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home. Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%. One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf. I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla. BANG! Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.
Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5
And now for words that usually don’t make people money. I like the Buffalo Bills this week. I’ll hold for laughter. Done? One more? Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway. Ok, I’m back. You’re good? Cool. Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago. Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late. They’ve lost 5 straight. A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina. Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road. Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs. Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road. So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back? Whoopedy-doo. Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks. I love big defenses getting points at home. Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game? No one else will…except me and the others who bet…
If you missed this week’s, “Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber,” you can catch it right here. Catch me next week on Twitch at 5pm under Be Terrific. Fast forward to about 4:30 in for the start of the show.
4-4 last week, meh. Lost TB and the over. Lost Bal and SF over. Fucking Beathard turned that ball over more times than someone on the fix. Couldn’t score more than 10 points in garbage time? I hit Bal under as that Tucker miss solidified the under for me. Hit my lock of the week with SD under and thankfully, Vrabel went for 2 after that late TD. Either way, I was winning that one. Late hits with the Chiefs and my NY Giants brought me to .500. And of course that, “too little, too late comeback attempt but successful backdoor cover” for the Giants. And don’t bother with a butt sex joke, we’ve done them all. Especially all while sitting in a steam room at NY Sports Club. 30-21 on the season which puts me at 59% and better than most Vegas handicappers and MUCH better than the weathermen and weatherladies. Quick would you rather: Land a weatherlady or land an anchorwoman on any of the Hispanic channels? I vote Hispanic anchorwoman. No reason, I think it’s just a slightly higher accomplishment, as long as you don’t land the one that is also cartel member’s girlfriend.
The Lock of the week: I know the Rams just made the Niners look flat out silly last week. Aaron Rodgers is 4-0 when the Packers are getting more than 6. Off the bye, 9-2-1. Allison and Cobb will be back. Rams 6-11-2 last 19 at home ATS. Gonna be a ton of GB fans. So barely a home field advantage for GB.
Take GB +9.5
Facts are facts: Drew Brees is a strong MVP candidate this year. Some people are trying to downplay the revenge factor the where the Lattimore whiffed on a tackle, Stefon Diggs runs for the TD and an insurance company endorsement deal. Saints 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU out of their last 5. The line went from Saints +1 to now Saints -1.5. Time to wait this out till Sunday as the public has obviously pounded the Saints. Minn 3-5-2 last 10 and 1-3-1 at home. Also, the Saints have went over 52: 6/9, 7/8 vs Minnesota, 8/10 in Minnesota, Minn over 4/6.
I’m taking the Saints -1.5 (Waiting till tomorrow to see what the line ends up) and over 53
The Steelers have been over 6/8, 4/5 at home, Cle under 4/6 and under 4/6 on the road. 8/12 vs Pitt. Plus, Pitt D has let at least 21 points to QBs. 21 is also the number of sandwiches most women order at Primanthi’s, 21 also the number of times they’ve hooked up with their uncles, and 21 is also the number of IQ points those water heads have.
Plunk down some buck on Pitt over 49 (I bought it down to 48.5)
After the Chiefs game sunday night, Cincinatti looked like Houston after her 500 man gangbang. Now they’re home and not on prime time which is key for Andy Dalton. He’s like A-Rod, showing up when there’s no pressure but shrinking when the spotlight is at its brightest. No Gerald McCoy and Kwon Alexander on defense for TB and boy, does Jameis “One Star Uber Passenger rating” love turning that ball over. That fruitcake screwed me out of that over last week with all of those turnovers last week vs Cleveland. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late and 5-2 at home. Bucs 2-11 SU on the road.
Grabbing the Bengals -3.5
Seattle one of the best rushing the ball, Detroit one of the worst defending the rush. Seahawks off a bye and getting 3 points? Heiiidy HOOOOOO.
Taking the Seahawks +3 and their obnoxious fans.
Colts flying west to facing the Oakland Raiders who are in flat out, “selling anything not nailed down” mode. Apparently, Derek Carr isn’t crying, YOU’RE CRYING. They traded away Cooper who wasn’t really doing anything all that special anyway and Lynch is on IR. Now I ask you, where are the points coming from? Jared Cook? I’d rather have Jared from Subway. Raiders also 2-13 ATS against teams that have a bye the following week.
Take the Colts -3
Bears have Mack listed as questionable. But where are the Jets getting their points from? All of their WRs are out: Enuwa, Robbie Anderson, and Wayne Chrebet all out for the Jets. They signed Richard Matthews and who cares? He couldn’t stay on the Titans roster? Jets 2-5-1 on the road. 0-4-1 in Chicago. Bears 11-4-1 at home. I know the Bears haven’t laid more than a TD in well over 5 years but again, where are the Jets getting their points from?
Take the Bears -8 but going to wait till kickoff to see the number.
Speaking of teams that are else selling their body parts for science, the Giants are home and that will be the last game of the year I attend. As much as I enjoy the randy talk and spirited menu fare of my buddy, I can’t stomach the thought to pay to see this team nor freeze my ass off any more this year. Giants trade Eli Apple and his annoying mother to the Saints (no big deal) and Snacks Harrison (huge deal, #1 run stopper in the NFL) to Detroit. Washington escapes with a win against Dallas and Jason Garrett’s ability to fuck up a glass of water. Washington 4-2 ATS of late and I know the history favors the Giants but I’m going against a team almost ready to bench their QB.
Take the Skins -1
The Niners just got smoked. I don’t feel like going to a full handicap except that from one of my favorite gambling podcasts, RJ “Mushmouth” Bell’s Vegas dream preview, all of the guys love the Niners because the Cardinals stink and the last time they faced each other, the Niners lost but were +5 in turnovers. They rebound against an awful Josh Rosen with turf toe. 4 likes from those sharps are enough for me to like it too.
6-3 last week! 2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money. And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note. Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners? I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss. I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)
Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints. The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week. Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss. 15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!
The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings. Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck? They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start? In the black hole? Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here. Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site? With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt. Not buying it. And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home. Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road? ZERO out of 10.
Take the Raiders -2.5. I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.
You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week? Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t. And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense. And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii. Tennessee is also a heavy run offense. How do the Eagles fare against the run? #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago? Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year. Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year. This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take
Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5
Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up. Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place. Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom! Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides. Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know, the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man. Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge. The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.
Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.
Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand. But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them. Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week. And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers. Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again. And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome. The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5? Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played? Vernon and Apple are out again on defense. Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.
Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5
I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)
And now it’s time for the lock of the week. Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier. But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal. Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go. And Houston’s secondary is trash. Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy. Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY. They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.
I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.
Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail. Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks). I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver. Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.) I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them. The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning. However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit. The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover. I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter. So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets. Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai. But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland. And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.
So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.
Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy. The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show. Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace. They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe. The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet. I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under. And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.
Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.
Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score. You know who else doesn’t score? The NY football Giants. Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face. Full of holes and hard to watch. I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas. Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard. They floundered in NE and Tennessee. Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under. Houston also on the under train, 6/7. I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”. But I’ll settle for the second best lock.
Take the Giants under 42.
Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL. So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team? Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable. He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday. Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday. The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ. Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel. Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid. Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going
GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.
The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system. No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back. 10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense. And Carolina is 7/10 over at home. Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year. Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.
Take the Bengals over 44
The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers. Smell a theme? Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile. Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film. Brees on the road? Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent. A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons. Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL. But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints. They need a convincing road win and this is the time.
Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)
SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf? Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church. SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early. No other pithy jokes or observations here.
Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)
And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance. And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.
Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5)
This guy promised you free money. I’m GIVING you free money!
When you’re good, take a bow. And goddamn, am I good! Last week, 6-1, repeat 6-1, while in Vegas with my buddies. We ate like kings, drank the uncle who was too touchy feely with your sister, and screamed about all that FREEEE MONEY we received. Dal under, AZ under, Cincy, Rams, Philly under, and the “what not to do in overtime” clinic put on by the Browns and Steelers brought me my final winner. For those of you while are going to hear this story for the rest of your lives, Cle got 2 TDs late to tie the game up. I had the under at 44 and the score going into halftime was 21-21. Translation: 99.5% of the time, I’m fucked. But because Ben can’t close on the road or a mouthy coed in a bar bathroom and Cleveland went all Cleveland; neither team scored and the under held on by your mothers’ steel wool pubes. The only I lost was the Saints money line and boy, was that a hit in the pocket as the money line was -550. And now since we have more time to write this article while Predator is on in the background, my daughter is eating popcorn, and my wife is preparing for 4 eventual moments of randy talk, let’s get to the picks!
The Filthadelphia Eagles showed that they sucked less against Matt Ryan on the road last week. Atlanta had 20 penalties, which is 4 less than crybaby Venus Williams had at the US Open. Was it Venus or Serena? I don’t care. Tennis is a half step above soccer, NASCAR, and people who play Pokemon. Ok fat nerds, 1997 is over. Stop chasing fake Japanese turtles in traffic while listening to Goo Goo Dolls and go do a few laps around the track that bullies chased you around in gym class. So now Philly goes down to Tamp-er, as that morbidly obese, real life Comic Book Guy, Mike Francesa would say. Tampa took the tits out of the Saints in their own building last week. Do you think Tampa has it in them for back to back wins? Statistics don’t think so. Fitzpatrick is 1-9-1 ATS after a win. Philly 4-2 ATS and 5-1 on the road. Tampa is 2-4 at home against Philly. And they’ve lost Hargroves and Grimes in the secondary. Oh yeah, DeSean Jackson is in concussion protocol after he scored a TD and DIDN’T spike the ball before the end zone…for once. Lastly, Philly has had 10 days to prep for this game. You’re only laying 3 and that’s a bargain.
I’m taking buying the Birds down to -2.5
Just read that Marcus Mariota although banged up, is going to play this Sunday. And apparently, backup Blaine Gabbert is going to play as well. Well, you know the old saying, when you have 2 QBs, you have zero QBs. Tennessee showed me nothing last week and although Watson wasn’t good at all in NE, the Texans were hanging tight against the Pats. Houston 11-3 ATS as well as 5-2 ATS in Tennessee. Hopkins is probable for Houston and Delanie Walker is out for the year for the Titans. And hell, I even like the under 43 as there is supposed to be some rain. Maybe the hurricane reaches there as plays a role.
But I’m buying down the Texans to -2.5 for sure and maybe the under 44
The Steelers are back home where you’ll hear one of the worst accents in the world. Yinz? Pop? Jesus, can you people NOT home school your kids when you dropped out of the 6th grade to work in the coal mines? But there are 3 things for sure: Death, Taxes, and Toronto relief pitcher Tyler Clippard shitting the bed. And the 4th is usually Ben Rothliesberger at home; ESPECIALLY after a shit tie. And who has the Cleveland under 5.5 for the season? Your favorite neighborhood handicapper. The Chiefs defense got gouged but hung on against the Chargers last week. No Eric “Dingle” Berry for the Chiefs. Ben and the boys actually close a game out in Pittsburgh while Leveon Bell misses out on another 500k game check. The last time someone avoided Pennsylvania this long, it cost her the election. Zing!
I’m buying the Steelers down to -2.5
The Jets shocked the world when they beat Detroit. Detroit shocked everyone when Matt Stafford did his best Nathan Peterman impression. Are the Jets going to score a lot of points again? No. Miami is going to come into the Meadowlands and cool down from those points they put up in that marathon last week against the Titans. Jets got 5 TOs and a lot of POT. Sam Darnold won’t be winging it all over the place. Miami is 6/8 under in NY so we’re going to make this easy and take.
Jets under 43
I love the Chargers in Buffalo because well, it’s Buffalo. And they stink. And they’re starting a rookie QB. Also, the Chargers offense will light it up against a hangdog Buffalo D. I know the whole, west coast team flying east for a 1pm game argument but the Bills are so bad, I don’t care. I bought the point and took…
Lastly, here are 6 words you RARELY hear me say: I love the Giants this week. They had a chance or 2 to take down the Jags. Dallas looks AWFUL, ZERO offense for them. They didn’t cross the 50 until the THIRD QUARTER last week. I just think the Giants are not doing 0-2 again this year. And getting 3? Sure, why not? Watch this game be 21-10 Dallas. But here’s an absolute LOCK: The Giants are 7/8 with the under and Dallas is 5/5 in recent under. Giants/Dallas go under 4/5. Eli and his moderately confused looking face win in a low scoring fashion.
Take the Giants +3 and the Under 41.5
I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october. 2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen. Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did. And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy: Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1. Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters. So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.
The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs. So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours. Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts. Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA. Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home. I think Oak +7 is a play
But I like the LA under 42 better.
My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house. Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game. In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract. It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple. But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can. This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona. Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable. I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year. Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road. Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall. Third time’s the charm.
Take the Skins -3
Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears. Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1. The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings. I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense. Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota. John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out. Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs. Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi. The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points. Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.
I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half. I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.
In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane. This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once. The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center. And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….
Lay -5 and grab the Colts.
I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week. Why? The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall. But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22. And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7. No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either. Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.
Take Bal over 40
In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help. Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6. They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS. And why doth thou give a dookie about this game? Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons. And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason. Yes, Seattle is healthier. But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS. I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.
Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points.
The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think. The Saints need this game to ensure a home game. The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit. Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall. 5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO. Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under. This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos. But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…
Goes under 48.5
Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…
Sorry for no column last weekend, I had an insanely packed Saturday with the Comics Watching Comics taping on Saturday while family came up for a belated birfday celebration on Sunday. But if you follow me and my cookie eating machine (She ate a CWC cookie last week), you’ll see that I killed it! I hit Tenn over on Thursday night to start off the week with an easy win as that was clinched in the 3rd quarter. I hit Philly, Baltimore, Minnesota and the under, and the Saints over. I lost KC (fucking Giants dicked me again when getting double digits), SD under (Peterman throwing FIVE picks didn’t help), and the Houston under. I also hit the Seattle over on monday night, giving me a SOLID 7-3 record last week. I took SD under on Thanksgiving and nailed that one with ease so we’re starting off the week 1-0. Hot hand in the dice game, baby doll! Talk about 6 hours straight! Clickety, clickety, clack! Now name that reference.
I missed definitely 1, even 2 bets last week. I should’ve went with the Pats and the under like my gut said to because the Pats stayed in Denver to maintain the high elevation conditions to prep for Mexico City. And by prepping for conditions, I mean put your money in your shoes and carrying a burner cell phone. I knew the Raiders weren’t doing that and boy, did it show. But I like to bet trends and here are a few for you: The Pats are 5/7 covering the overs at home. The Pats are 4/6 covering the overs when playing Miami. And Miami is perfect in the over department in their last 5. Matt Moore will be chasing points like Kevin Spacey chasing nerd boys in a Gamestop. 48 is an easy number for both teams to hit.
Take the Pats over 48
Pittsburgh has 10 days to prepare for the DOA Green Bay Packers. This game SHOULD be out of hand early and this number is so low that Pitt may be able to cover it themselves. For the last month and change, the Packers D has given up 20+ points in all but one game. The only question is can GB score enough points as in that same timeframe as they’ve put up 20+ points…one time. They’ve also been shut out once in that span (Lock of the week last week was Baltimore folks but then again, if you follow me on FB, you know that). GB has hit the over on the road 7/8. Pitt though, has hit the under 8/10. GB women are 0/10 when it comes to hitting the under of 215 lbs. I just think 43 is too low and GB will be chasing points late. Can you see Pitt winning this 35-10? I can. And if so, that’s a winner.
Take GB over 43
Jacksonville got one of the luckiest covers last week against the Browns when they stripped the ball from Kizer late and ran it in for a DTD. The last time Cleveland had their hearts ripped out of them like this was the previous Sunday. And the Sunday before that. And the Sunday before that. Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS and 7-1 on the road. Now they fly to sunny Arizona where the only thing the Cardinals fans have to look forward to is ASU sorority girls on a scavenger hunt during pledge season. AZ is 2-7-1 out of their last 10 and 1-3-1 at home. What’s Jacksonville’s biggest weakness? Run D. And who is the biggest “threat” on AZ? Old ass Adrian Peterson who aside from one stellar week has done less than SNL writers writing something else besides a Trump joke. Acquiring Marcel Darius was the best thing for Jax as the yds per carry for opposing RBs has drastically dropped since Buffalo gave him away like a cuckholded husband gives away his wife. And remember, BLAINE GABBERT IS THE QUARTERBACK. No way that top tiered Jax pass D lets up anything in the air. Especially from a guy named Blaine.
You’ll thank me when you take the Jags -5
The battle of bad accents, bad fashion, and bad driving (Ohio) is this weekend and the winner is truly the loser because it’s Ohio. Cleveland ALMOST covered for a bunch of you but then went full Cleveland Steamer when they fumbled and Jax returns that fumble for a TD. But Cincy has been a covering machine of late: 16 points over margin over their last 6 games as well as 6-0 ATS. Cincy 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland. Browns are 1-8 ATS and 0-4-1 on the road. I know 7.5 is a tricky number but this game can easily be 20-10.
The Bengals continue to make the Browns scratching their heads and counting down until Josh Gordon returns, take Cincy -7.5
After watching Seattle’s hopes get crushed by a late FG attempt falling short on monday night, I think they’re done. Their defense looks more trampled than Tera Patrick’s pussy. A short work week, ZERO running game, and now they’re on the road in SF. The Niners are fresh off a bye and have a little pep in their step after destroying the Giants 2 weeks ago. The Seahawks beat the Niners with a late FG to win 12-9 in SEATTLE. What makes me think they’re gonna do it on the road? Nothing. “DEAD MAN WALKING!”
Take the NAWWWNERS +6.5
Well, when you’re right, you’re right. Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9. The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under. I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club. The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500. You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable. I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down. Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored! I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell. The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.
I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block. That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1
Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform. Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass. It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons. The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago. In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees. It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather. But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets. Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright. 6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm. The number is right if you can get it.
Take the Bills +3
I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened? Safety, lost the game by .5. If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted. Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late. They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight. Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins. Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home. In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away. Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south. A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5. That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle. LA plays them tight and might even win.
Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5
What did I tell you last week? I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week. Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye. Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU. More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago. Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13. No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks. That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4. And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning? And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller? I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas. As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.
Take the Pats -7.5
It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against. Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET: “phoooone hoooome.” And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick. I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick. Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field. Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore? You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson. The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS. TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home. I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out. No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.
I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5? Get all over the Jets!
Who’s hotter than the Rams? Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints. Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road. Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB. How did Tom Savage do last week? Not. Well. 19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time. I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper. And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL. Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17. And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen? Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument. 34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points. I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise? I don’t think so, Tim. Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.
Lastly, my only total for the week. Washington under has hit their last 4/6. Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored. A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report. I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.
Vikings under 41
A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover. Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days. I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home. And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF. Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.
Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss. 3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok? Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering. Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left. Want to guess what happens next? A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point. The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered. Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover. I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful. You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane. It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.
Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points. They kick another FG and I cover. I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts. As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won. See what a bad weekend does to you? And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.
If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high. But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me. Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:
I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week. Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week. The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play. And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet. The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense. The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense. No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well? Air it out. Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB. TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road. I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.
I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7
I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday. Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham. But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham. Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column. And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not. Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack. Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play. Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck. He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick. Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal. Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal. Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.
Take the Titans -3.5
My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea. I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest. Why am I sharing this with you? Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed. And it got all over the place. All. Over. The. Place. And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place. Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou. So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games? Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going. And that’s Oakland and Miami. Both teams are an offensive mess. Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind. And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family. Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami. Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well. This one has 21-17 written all over it.
Take the under 44
Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller. HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes) Yeah, that will fix things. I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game. If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery. Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road. Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home. But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far. B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.” Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich. My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.
Take the Eagles -7.5
Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2. You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound? Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile. GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks. And GB is getting points? At home? Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road. Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB. GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit. And I’m getting points?
Yeah, GB +2.5
And now it’s time for the lock of the week. Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument. But this week, I’m going against the history. The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS. Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick. In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants. No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely. Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room. Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is. Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard. And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of. Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley. I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.
Rams in an easy one, -4.5