Week 18 NFL picks ATS, let’s get that FREEEE MONEY!

Just like your mom shaking her ass at a bachelor party, the money keeps rolling in. 7-2 last week which brings my total to 93-79-1, 54% for the year. Hot damn, we’re humming. Bad news is I took Chiefs 1h team total over 14 and Chiefs 1h -6 last night. I’d like to think after scoring a TD, the last thing you want to do his hold the opponent to 3 and out and then get a roughing the kicker penalty. Of course, that leads to them driving for an equalizing TD. And of course in full transparency, I always suck in the final week of the season so let’s put the voodoo hex on that trend.

Giants are losers of 5 straight, losing by 18.4 ppg. They’re AVERAGING 10.6 ppg on offense in the last 5, 15.7 ppg for the year which is 31st. Taylor Heinecke is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS as a favorite. Giants 0-5 ATS since Jones got hurt and Frohm back in there? I know the Giants covered (and should’ve won but hey, they’re the Giants) the first meeting but that’s when Jones was in and they gave a modicum of a fuck. I see zero fight from them.

Skins teased down to 0 and Skins teased to +.5 in another teaser with TB -2.5. Also, Giants team total under (yep, again) 16

You may accuse me of being frivolous since I just won THREE fantasy football titles last weekend (driving that point home) and decided to get all loose goosey with my money. What you’re about to see may shock you: (insert my penis inside Emily Ratajowski’s mouth photoshopped picture) We all know that Jags are awful: Jags defense 11th in YPG and 2nd in PPGA. Jags are 1-0 ATS and SU as a 14 point dog plus this year. Jags 0-7 ATS of late but against the Colts, wow. 11-1-1 ATS with 4 straight covers. I teased this baby up to an insane amount so let’s see if Trevor “how do I fit my nose in this helmet” Lawrence can fuck up a 21 point spread.

2nd half of teaser Jags +21.5

I should’ve laid the house on the Steelers last week +3.5, that was an easy win. Ben’s final game at home and although not razzle dazzling with his efforts, cruised to an easy win. And I was also set to take the Ravens this week because how many hard luck losses can you accrue this season? Lamar out again and maybe Huntley pulls this out for the W. Ravens dead last in YPP allowed and the Ravens are also allowing league high 6.5 yards after the catch. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS of late but 1-5 SU recently. Pitt is 7-3 SU against Bal but 1-5 SU on the road. Here’s what I’m hoping for: Baltimore to win (I have Pitt under 8.5 wins this year and that would clinch it) and Pitt to cover. But why not give me more cushion as these AFC Central division games USUALLY fall within a FG.

Teased Pitt to +10 and Alabama to +9. Right, I know nothing about college football but it just seems insane to me that Bama is getting points in a national championship game.

Here’s another “let’s hope this is a tight division game.” I have Saints under 9 and Saints no playoffs tickets so an outright loss would be just dandy. Saints are 6-2 ATS against the Falcons and 5-1 ATS against them. But they’re averaging 13.8 ppg in the last 4 and Taysom Hill 4-1 ATS on the road, Falcons are 0-6 ATS at home . Falcons were giving Buffalo until dumbass Matt Ryan started taunting them before he got into the end zone. I think the Falcons can win but for sure, keep it close. Also Saints have gone under 6/6 of late, ATL 7/8, and 5/6 under heads up.

ATL +10.5 and under 45.5 in a teaser

Bears haven’t played anyone worth a shit and now the Red Rocket comes to Minnesota. Bears are 3-8 ATS of late but 6-3 ATS and 5-2 SU against Minn. Vikings 2-8 ATS this year as home favorite but 34-18-1 ATS after a loss under Zimmer. Looks like Zimmer is about to get fired so they may give a spirited effort. The line opened at 2.5, went as high as 5.5, now is back to 4. I grabbed it at -4 and teased it to +.5 when it was at 5.5 I think the Vikings can win by a TD today.

Minn -4 and Minn +.5 as part 1 of a teaser with Raiders over.

I think the line is too high with Miami and here’s why: Dolphins are 4-1 ATS at home, 5-0 SU of late. Oh yeah, Pats are 2-4 SU against Miami and 2-6 ATS in Miami. Brian Flores is 14-8 ATS as a single digit dog. Miami 5-3 SU against the Pats and was an underdog in all but one of those games. Miami got fingerpopped like a gymnast by Larry Nasser last week but hell, they’re still 6-2 ATS of late. Miami 7/9 under of late and 4/5 under vs NE.

Dolphins +12.5 and under 46

Could you imagine if the Colts lost today and then the Chargers could tie with the Raiders and both make the playoffs? That would royally fuck 2 of my bets up but here we go. Chargers have gone over 6/7 of late but under 7/10 against the Raiders. Raiders have gone 5/7 but shit, I think points can be scored, especially when you tease! Herbert 1-3 ATS as a road favorite but the home team (Vegas) in final game is 1-4 ATS since 2015. Raiders 1-5 ATS at home playing against the Chargers but 4-2 SU of late. Raiders with a HUGE win against the Colts last week and if they win, they’re in. And maybe if the Raiders won, Mark Davis can treat himself to a real haircut instead of that bad bowl job that that creepy ass Christian family who mistreated their 10 kids had.

Vegas +3 and Vegas over 42 teased with Pitt +10. Also, Vikings +.5 and Vegas over 43 in another teaser with the Vikings.

Aaron Rodgers says he wants to play to keep some momentum before heading into the bye. That’s enough to tempt me to take him for a quarter but not the 1h as they yank him by q2. I’m tempted to grab Det in the second half but let’s see.

GB 1Q -1

Good luck and let’s get that FREEEEE MONEY!

NFL picks week 17 ATS

FINALLY, we’re back on that streak that we talked about, 4 winning weeks in a row! 5-2 last week and 86-77-1 for a 53% win percentage for this year. Week 17 has always been the bane of my existence but not this year as week 18 is the new week 17. Thankfully, one more week before I have that bed shitting week, let’s windmill those dicks while we’re in line at the DMV. And while you’re at it, wish me luck in my 3 fantasy leagues that I reached the finals. Out of 4 leagues, I’ll gladly take 3 paydays!

Show me an iota of respect for the NY Giants offense and I’ll show you someone who is always diplomatic and can’t ever value their opinion. Giants under has hit 7/9 of late and why trust Mike Glennon on the road? They BARELY scored 10 points against Philly and now they’re in Chicago. I just can’t see them putting up more than 2 TDS against Akeem Nicks and the rest of the Bears D.

Giants team under 16 points

This is going to be a 2 prong win if this hits. I have a Titans to win division ticket and this is the home run spot as they get 10 days off and play the Dolphins who are on a short week. Miami has played a slew of shitty QBs of late and not saying Tannehill is great but he’s better than the Ian Book and Zack Wilsons of the world. Titans 2-4 ATS of late but 8-3 SU of late. They’re 6-1 SU at home and they have a chance to lock up division should the Colts lose against the Raiders, especially with Went battling Covid. The Dolphins are indeed on fire of late: 6-1 ATS, 7-0 SU, and 11-5 SU against Tenn. I think Tenn wins and covers and I’m on the right side of the line.

Titans -3

Baltimore Ravens are as bad a mess as their shitty accent. Seriously, that accent is a stone’s throw from Philly and every time I hear it, I think someone from a flea market is trying to sell me samurai swords. I don’t know who’s playing QB tomorrow but a hobbled Lamar doesn’t scare me. Huntley is decent and I’d love to play the over. But I can’t trust the Ravens to put up their share of points but you know what I can trust besides your mom rubbing her slit on my knee after 3 Long Island Ice teas? The Baltimore secondary getting abused like a newsgirl on day 1 working for Roger Ailes. We say the Bengals pile on the Ravens so why can’t the Rams? Rams have gone over 4/5 on the road and for rooting interests, I have Stafford in 2 leagues in the finals. Can they score more than 26 points? I sure as shit think so. Ravens are 28th for defense in DVOA and dead last week since week 10. Also, 29 ppg allowed in the last 4 for the ravens D.

Rams team over 26 points

Bengals beat up the Ravens and they need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt, 4-2 ATS and SU of late. The Chiefs are playing like the team we thought they were, 6-0 ATS and 8-0 SU of late, so where does this leave us? Right here: Chiefs are 0-5 SU in Cincy. Can the Cincy o-line contain that pass rush? I hope and think that they can.

Bengals +5.5

Same game, different aspect.

Cincy team total over 23.5 points

Cincy has gone over 4/5 at home and 6/9 of late. Bengals are 27th in points allowed at home but 7th in points scored. Chiefs are 4/6 over of late as well, 4th in total points. Points will be had so let’s simplify shit and make this a teaser:

First half of teaser: Chiefs over 45

Sometimes I hesitate and it bites me in the ass, sometimes I get lucky. Yesterday, I got bitten in the ass as I delayed putting in the Vikings under and wouldn’t you know it, Captain Anti-Vax is out with Covid. So of course, the line drops and I’m caught holding the bag. Usually, I would never bet an under involving Green Bay or Vikings but obviously with Cousins out, this game won’t be putting up the points we thought. No Adam Thielen as well so this helps our cause. Also, this is the Sunday night game where it’s going to be 10 degrees in GB, not exactly inviting high scores. Again, all the trends point over but I’m betting on a backup screwing up as well as frigid GB.

Second half of teaser: Vikings under 48

Baker Mayfield looked sloppier than the prom queen during her 20th high school reunion. They get another day of rest and go to Pittsburgh who got prison raped and filleted last week against the Chiefs. Browns of late are 2-4 ATS and SU. Browns are 1-4 ATS in Pittsburgh, 1-17 SU in Pitt. Steelers 5-0-1 SU of late at home sure as hell doesn’t hurt. And I’m sure we’re going to hear this till our taints hurt but you may have heard this is Rothliesberger’s last home game. Call me a sentimental dips hit but I think that the combination of his last game, Pitt coming off a straight up cunt punting, and getting in at the right number, this is a winning play.

Pitt +3.5

Remember how I said how I don’t act early enough some times and how it bites me or I’ve gotten lucky? Well in this game, I acted early and I’m wise to have done so. Locked in the Texans +13 Tuesday night and the next day, Jimmy G is announced that he has a thumb with 2 fractures. The Texans D surprisingly quasi held down the Chargers last week and they’re 15th against the pass, 18th in DVOA. San Fran pass defense is 23rd against the pass and Mills has been airing it out pretty well. Trey Lantz will probably start and no better time to bet against a rookie QB who hasn’t earned a start vs a team who’s playing hard and catching almost 2 touchdowns. And Houston has already won 2 outright as a double digit dog. Lastly, Niners are 4-11 SU at home, yuck.

Houston +13

I know I said this last week but shit, I can’t see any of these teams losing outright this week:

TB/Bills/Pats/GB ml parlay

NFL playoffs picks ATS week 15 sports betting

Don’t look now, (just kidding, you better look) but your favorite NFL picks guy is on a bit of a rush: 7-3 last week, 16-6 the last 2 weeks, which takes me to 76-71-1. Pats are 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS overall. They give up the fewest PPG, 15.4, as well as 3rd in yards allowed. Pats also allowed 5-1 ATS against Indy, 8-0 SU, and 16-3-1 ATS in Indy. Yes, most are with Brady but what I’m drawing here is a comparison how Bellichick owns the Colts. Colts aren’t getting it done at home, 3-7 ATS but they’re 7-3 ATS of late Short story long, this is too many points to give a team that should be a slight favorite or pick em. But you know how I love giving myself an unfair competitive advantage to let’s tease them up to 8.5.

The Jets are worse than watching a woman give a rape confession; Jets allow an average of 166 yds per game so hopefully Myles Gaskin plays for all of you that have made the fantasy playoffs (4/4 leagues for this guy) The Dolphins are giving up 11 ppg since week 9 and now they get Zack Wilson who looks like Rita Wilson out there. Jets are 1-5 ATS of late, 0-7 ATS against Miami, 1-6 ATS in Miami. Dolphins are white hot, 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ATS at home. Let’s get this baby below a FG.

Pats +8.5 and Jets -2.5

Let’s call this one, “keep your butthole puckered for that backdoor cover.” This has to be the tantamount definition of “trap game” for the Cardinals as they face the Colts on Christmas next week. Lions are finished nursing they gaping wounds after going to Denver and I think that a banged up James Connor and no DeAndre Hopkins spell somewhat trouble for the Cardinals. And the Lions cover at home: 7-2 when getting 4 points or more. They’re also 4-1 ATS of late as well as 8-5 ATS this season. Cardinals do cover on the road, 7-0 ATS and 8-3 ATS of late but I can see Arizona taking their foot off the gas and cruise to a 2 TD victory. Let’s get this baby above 2.5 TDs

Second half of the teaser is an easy one, I think. As we know, Tomlin as home dog of late, 17-6-1 and 5-0-1 as a home. Tenn is 1-4 SU in Pitt and 2-6 SU but 7-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. Titans offense looks as broken any former girlfriend of Marilyn Manson and just like him, I’m locking Tennessee in a sex room until Derrick Henry comes back. Pitt at home is 4-0-1 SU of late and they’re fighting for their life. I have Pitt under 8.5 for the year and Titans to win division so let’s try and kill 3 birds with one stone. Pitt is getting 1.5 and let’s take the other 6 points and take it to….

Lions +18.5 and Pitt +7.5

Giants are 5-0-1 as a home under. Mike Glennon stinks and the Dallas defense is swarming on QBs like your Mom swarms me after I just scrub my balls. They’re also 6/7 under of late, 9/10 at home. Dallas has gone 6/7 under of late and Dak looked awful against the hapless Skins defense; including chucking up a pick 6 that got me home to a Wash +10 teaser. Giants are so lifeless that you’d think they’re doing their best Terry Shiavo impression. Too soon? Giants lose in an inglorious fashion, 27-10 and below…

Cowboys under 44.5

I like to fire in bets early in the week and I’d like to think most of the time it works. And when I saw Houston was getting 3, I said that is insane and the wrong team is favored. About 3 hours later, Urban Meyer gets fired. And of course, the line gets pounded upward so your old pal KG is going to get shitty closing line value. But Davis Mills through the ball around all over the Seattle Seahawks d and he can do this against the Jags defense as well. Houston 5-2 ATS against Jax, 5-1 SU in Jax, and 7-0 SU against Jax. If Trevor Lawrence get his helmet over that monstrous nose, congrats. But he still has win by more than 3 for me to lose this bet and the stats aren’t backing it up of late, 1-4 ATS, and Lawrence hasn’t thrown for more than 1 TD in 12 straight games. Jags haven’t scored more than 23 since their trip to London where they beat the Dolphins and then pressed their penises against double decker bus windows. I know firing Meyer can be big for the Jags but the talent on that field isn’t going to get it done.

Houston +3

Jags team total under 21.5

Why not take this in a teaser with another bet for a team that truly needs it? Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its past 5 road games while Den is 4-2 ATS of late. I think the Bengals keep it close and could win but doesn’t lose by more than a score.

Texans +10.5 and Bengals +7.5

Tell me which of these teams is going to lose and why: Bills after a gut punch loss and against a dogshit offense. Bucs home against a division rival who beat them on the road and they’re home now and their opponent’s coach is out w/Covid. Miami gets a home game against a team and coach who are more lost than a Des Moines Iowa farmer in Harlem.

ML parlay Bills, Bucs, Cards Mia

Edit:

Lost the Pats teaser last night so I grabbed the Dolphins to tease with the Bills: Mia -2.5 and -5.5

NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

Week 12 NFL picks ATS Sports betting.

5-5 last week, 60-65-1 this year…I just can’t get above .500 on a weekly basis. So here we go.

Call this the knee jerk “too many points for a home divisional game) reaction. Atlanta has covered 1/5 of late and 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records. We all know Tampa is king at home but 1-5 ATS on the road. Tampa under 4/6 of late and All 4/6 under of late BUT Tampa has gone over 5/5 when playing at Atlanta. This game can easily be as much of a shootout as there will be in Buckhead later that night.

Atlanta +11 and over 50.5

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are gametime decisions, much like oral sex. Sometimes you feel like doing it and it’s too musty like you’re in a basement for your liking. Cards have scored 40 plus in past 2 road games against the Bears. They’ve also won all 6 of their road games by 10 or more. Bears are 0-3 as a home dog as well as covered just 1/6 games. Zona 7-2 ATS and 9-2 SU of late, 4-1 ATS against Chicago. Bears 1-5 ATS of late. Andy Dalton going again and I don’t see Arizona taking their foot off the gas; especially with 2 weeks to prep for this. But 7.5 is a funky number sooooooo

Arizona -1.5 teased with Philly -1

The Giants are road dog warriors but you better calllllll somebody to play on offense because backup Mike Glennon is in there and he inspires as much confidence as looking for a sparking clean bathroom in Tijuana. Giants have gone under 5/6 and with that backup, they’re going to take things sloowwwwllyyyy and conservatively. Dolphins 2nd in expected points and 3rd in turnovers within the last month. Giants are 31st in YPG and 28th in offensive points expected. Miami 5-1 ATS as a home favorite and 12-4 ATS at home.

Dolphins -5 and Giants 1h under 20

Talk about the PERFECT outcome; I teased the Colts and that hit but they lost which helped my Colts under 9 bet for the year. Colts are 6-3 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS in Houston, and 6-1 ATS against Texans. Houston has allowed 17 rushing TDs and have are 31st in yds allowed. Went 1-5 when Wentz has a turnover. Houston 3-6 ATS of late and even better when Tyrod is playing. So let’s tease this baby:

Colts -2.5 and Eagles -.5

Nothing makes me happier when the Giants beat the Eagles. Hopefully, they’ll drop a bath bomb in Giants stadium after the Eagles/Jets game tomorrow from those Golden Corral loving fans. Philly losing last week against the G-men spells doom for the rancid Jets. Philly is 10-0 SU, 5-0 SU on the road, and 5-0 ATS against the Jets. Jets dead last in PPG allowed and second to last in QBR so that inspires zero confidence. But don’t feel like laying 7 even though it’s going to be no shocker that they blow the Jets outta there. But I teased them twice as I feel that confident with them winning outright.

Jags are 5-10 ATS of late, 2-18 SU. Also, 1-4 in LA and 0-10 SU on road. BUT Jacksonville 2-0 ATS as a double digit dog. 3-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. And I could give a rusty trombone fuck about those positive Jaguar stats. Rams have lost 3 straight and if a miracle the size of Pauly Shore making me laugh, their playoff hopes are kaput if they lose to the Jags. This is the spot where they get to take out their frustrations like a mailman on a lonesome housewife. I don’t like laying dd’s (except the cup size, heigh ohhhh) which is why I teased them down below a TD.

Rams -5.5 with Pats +10

Speaking of another get right game, Rothliesberger said this will be his last year so he can fully enjoy pushing women into bathroom stalls all year round. Bal is 4-0-1 in Pitt but here’s the stat of all stats: between those 2 teams, a team favored by more than 3 is 1-13-2. The average margin of victory is 1 point. Harbaugh in Pitt is 13-13. Baltimore has scored under 17 in their last 4/5. Tomlin is 42-21-2 as an underdog, 4-2 this season. And the cherry on top: Lamar 5 INTs in 2 starts against Pitt and sacked 9 times with more good news: TJ Watt has been cleared to play

Pitt +4.5

It’s supposed to be garbage weather in Buffalo, which means it’s just a normal day outside of June-August. That favors that Pats d that smothers like Kim Kardashian’s ass when Pete Davidson tosses her salad. And for the love of christ, how did this all-time worst cast member of SNL who looks like a meth’ed out chipmunk land all of these women? Buff 4-0-1 against AFC east teams. But I’ll wager the Pats run game slogs through the Bills defense. Pats are 6-3 ATS of late agains the Bills, 6-0 ATS of late. They’re also 8-1 SU in Buffalo. Wanted to get this to a premier number which is why I teased it to 10.

The Chargers run defense is worse than people who sit in first class for the first time and take pictures the entire flight. The Bengals just Cleveland steamed the Steelers with a 40 burger last week, over 4/5 of late. The Chargers can score points as easily but recent trends have the Chargers recently under 4/5 on the road. Again, I think I got a key number at 50.5 and it even dropped. This game has 27-24 with ease.

Bengals over 50.5

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL picks week 8 against the spread

It was only a matter of time before this taint tickling handicapper got back on a winning track. 9-2 last week, 40-33 for the season, 55% for the year so we’re back in the black. And just as my thursday night luck continued, guess who had Arizona teased down to -.5? Christ almighty, what a shitty way to end a game. I’d rather stand in from of Alec Baldwin with a prop gun in his hands than watch a WR not turn around with :14 left in the game. So we’re starting the week 0-1, yuck. Here we go:

I want someone to explain how the Bills (home against the Dolphins whom they blew out a few weeks ago), Rams (at houston who couldn’t cover 20.5 spread and just traded away Mark Ingram), Bengals (against the Jets backup) and the Chiefs (losing 2 straight and now at home against the Giants) are going to lose. You can’t. So this week’s big spread, 4 way ML parlay is…

Bills/Rams/Bengals/Chiefs

I have made money on them when teasing them and lost money on the betting them straight up. Some of you would rather bet on bum fights in Detroit vs their football team and I don’t blame you. And goddamnit, if not now, when for the Lions? They’re home and Philly has lost 3 straight to Detroit. 3 consecutive starts for Jalen Hurts under 60% passing completion. Philly 1-5 SU of late and 1-5 ATS against Det. Also, Philly is 2-8 ATS on the road.

Lions +3.5

Titans have been damn near a guarantee for the over of late; as much as Dune was a guarantee to be MEH. Great visuals, plot line was nothing remarkable and heavily influenced by Star Wars. Titans 11/16 over of late, 5/5 over on the road. Colts 4/6 over vs the Titans. This game has teaser all over it and with the teaser, EASILY 24-21. Kirk Cousins stinks in primtetime but I think points will be had by both teams. And I locked this bet in during the week before Dak Prescott’s calf acting up like a white woman who just got bumped from first class to coach. So hopefully he plays Sunday night and it helps the second leg of my teaser. Dallas over 5/6 of late, 8/9 over vs NFC, Vikings are 6/9 over of late, 12/18 games have gone over on a Sunday. It’s a high total, even with the tease, but I think this game can get to 27-4 with ease. Dallas AVERAGING 34 ppg this year, Minnesota averaging 24.

Titans over 44.5/Dallas over 49

Baker Mayfield is playing this week with a banged up shoulder and working on a Michael Strahan gap toothed smile as he rakes in $ making Progressive commercials. He’ll be looking to keep that shoulder protected so I smell handoff city. I think this game starts off slow as most of these Cle/Pitt games usually do. Pitt under 4/6 of late and 6/8 under in Cle. Lastly, 37-12-1 for Pitt road games and that’s good enough for me.

Cle 1h under 21

Remember last year when the Pats went to LA and beat them Pats 6-0 ATS and SU against LA. We know Bellichick off the bye is fantastic and they gave the Cowboys and Bucs a run for their money. Chargers 8-2 ATS and SU of late but the Chargers run D is worse than sitting next to someone in first class who’s never sat there and takes nonstop selfies. Christ, act like you’ve been there before. Most rushing yds allowed and most yards per rush by the Chargers D. Patriots run that ball well and that’s gonna be the game plan. Chargers may win this game but it will be close. So why not make this less of a white knuckle and tease the Pats up. And the other half of the teaser is taking the obvious Bengals down below a TD. Cincy is 4-1 SU of late, 4-1 ATS on the road. Bengals are 4th in yards per play and 6th in yds per attempt. Jets 1-6 ATS and SU of late, 2-8 SU at home. No Zack Wilson but honestly, that doesn’t matter. Mike White, Jack White, Vanna White, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO IS QB FOR THE JETS. I can’t imagine the Jets covering, let alone winning. But again, why make this a nail biter?

Bengals -4.5/Pats +10

Who wants to bet on Jameis Winston? Not even his mother would most of the time unless it was betting on him stealing crab legs. Bucs 14-1 SU of late and 10-1 SU on the road. But guess where their kryptonite is? The Blue Oyster Bar. That and New Orleans where they’re 1-5 ATS and SU. Saints are playing surprisingly well of late, 7-3 SU at home and 8-3 SU home (most of that sample set with Brees) Saints have gone 7/9 under of late. I think the Saints keep this close and might even win. They’re gonna do everything in their power to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands and keep that clock running. Saints are 10-2 ATS as an underdog and Bucs are 0-3 ATS on the road this year. So let’s boost our odds for both by taking…

Saints +10.5/under 56.5

Everyone and their grandmother (she’s loose with the morals as well as loose with the pocketbook) loved the Eagles last week. I talked about fading that pick with my buddy Nick cause that’s always a bad sign. This week, everyone loves the Colts after they went into a bomb Cyclone in SF and won. BTW, Bomb Cyclone would be a great name for a stripper’s pussy or Mortal Kombat finishing move, or why not combine the both?

Titans have been a nice surprise of late, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU of late. Indy 4-0 ATS of late but Tenn is 4-0 ATS against teams who made the playoffs. Derrick Henry has 4 straight 100 yd games against them. I hope Indy doesn’t win because I have the Titans to win division as well as Colts under 9. But if the Colts were to win, it won’t be by more than a TD. Sooo, let’s tease this it up as well as grab the Bengals again.

Titans +8.5/Bengals -4.5

Get ready to say, “no shit, how?” Geno Smith has covered 7 straight starts. Jax 3-7 ATS of late, 1-19 SU, 2-4 SU against Sea and they got their win out of the way before the bye. Do you see Urban Meyer being able to coach in that stadium? Seattle hung tight with the Saints and I think they can cover 3 (it’s 3.5 now but I locked this in on Thursday). Yes, Sea 1-5 SU of late, 1-4 SU at home. Russ Wilson is coming back next week, hopefully, and if they have any hope of making a run for the playoffs, they need this game.

Sea -3

If the line gets back to 10, I’ll take the Giants if Toney and Sheppard play. The Giants are 8-1 ATS against KC, and 11-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs 3-14-1 of late ATS and 1-8 ATS at home.

Week 7 picks

Last week, 5-6 to bring my total to 31-31 for the year, 50% is not making any money. I’m about to go to the Giants game so no jokes or cookie monster video, just straight data.

KC 3-13-1 ATS but 15-5 ATS of late. Chiefs 1-4 ATS at SU against Tenn, KC 12-2 SU on road. Tenn 4-1 AT and SU. Tenn 2-1 ATS and SU against the Chiefs

Tenn +5.5

Wash 1-5 ATS, 2-5 SU, 3-7 SU against GB but 0-5 SU in GB. GB 5-0 ATS and SU of late, 16-2 SU at home.

First leg of teaser GB -2.5. Denver +8 (covered) was the second leg of the teaser

;Carolina under 7/9 of late Giants under 9/13, 6/7 under at home

Giants under 1H 22.5 and for the game, 43.5

Jets 1-5 ATS of late, 3-17 SU, 2-6 against Pats and 0-10 SU. 1-10 SU on the road 0-10 sU in NE. Pats 3-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-5 SU at home.

Pats -1 along with Titans +11.5

Atlanta 2-4 ATS of late, 2-8 SU, 6-2-1 ATS against Miami but 4-9 SU. All 5-1 ATS against AFC. Miami1-4 ATS of late, 0-5 SU, 9-3 ATS at home, 1-5 SU. Teams coming off a bye and road favorite, 83-49. Miami doesn’t take a bye after coming back from London? As in the words of Jack Slater from Last Action Hero (underrated movie) “Big Mistake.”

ATL -1.5

Arizona is gonna smoke Houston but they don’t need to go batshit crazy as they play Thursday night against GB. They’ll take the foot off the gas early

Zona team total under 32.5

But that doesn’t mean Deandre Hopkins won’t want to unload against his old team, despite hardly anyone there from management when he was there.

Hopkins over 70.5 receiving yards

Like all the big spreads to win outright so ML parlay it is: GB/Rams/Arizona/TB money line parlay

NFL week 5 picks ATS 10/10/21

Good news, the new James Bond film was great. Bad news, who would’ve thought the Giants AND the Jets would’ve combined to fuck me in FOUR bets? Giants come back from down 11 to win in OT and the goddamn Jets pull an OT win off as well. Bringing me to a total of 22-19 for the year. I know, a long way from 66% ATS 2 weeks ago. I started off the week teasing Seattle to +8.5 with Minnesota. So Russ badly sprains his finger, gets taken out for Geno Smith, and the Rams backdoor my teaser by HALF A FUCKING POINT WITH A LATE, MEANINGLESS FIELD GOAL. Starting off 0-1, sigh. So let’s rally and pretend like I’m a terminally ill cancer patient who goes to Vegas for a final long weekend; blowing his bankroll with reckless abandon and going balls deep without rubbers or standards.

I’m calling my first bet the LOCK OF THE YEAR. KC FINALLY covered the spread this year against Philly and now they’re home against the Bills. The Chiefs defense is softer than my penis hearing Ani DiFranco or Tori Amos songs. Their ATS number is almost as Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s approval rating, 2-12-1 ATS of late and 1-7 ATS at home. Christ almighty, that’s atrocious. In come the Bills who are hotter than a pistol: 12-3 ATS of late, 11-2 SU. Last 2 games they lost were the AFC championship and week 1 against the hapless Steelers. So what the Chiefs are 1-5 ATS and SU agains the Chiefs. But I want you to explain to me how the Chiefs are laying 3 to the Bills? This game has 31-30 written all over it and I REALLY think the Bills win the game. At WORST, they lose and keep it to a FG or less. So I made my biggest bet of the year on a teaser with the Bills:

First leg of the teaser: Bills +9 and a second bet of Bills +3

This next leg of the CAN’T MISS teaser is quite simple: The Colts are trash. Yes, the got their first win in Miami but who gives a shit. Colts are 1-4 SU of late and against Baltimore. Colts are also 2-4 ATS against AFC and 0-6 against the AFC north but let’s look at the eye test, Wentz’s numbers are ok but his execution stinks. Jonathan Taylor, the RB, is underachieving. Now bring in the Ravens who are riding hot: 9-3 ATS and 9-2 SU. Also 7-2 ATS against AFC, 4-1 ATS against AFC south, 7-0 SU in October, and 7-1 SU as a favorite. Ravens at home Monday night are going to fast forward through the Colts like I fast forward through half of Howard Stern’s show. We get it, you’re scare of Corona, hate anti-vaxxers, and love the Bachelor. I’m skipping to whenever Ronnie the Limo Driver yells out, “CUUUUUNT!”

Second leg of can’t miss teaser, Ravens -1

Back to the money line parlays:

Pats and Ravens ML parlays

Pats/Ravens/TB

TB in Miami laying 10 is never a good idea so let’s through them in the pile with 2 other teams who are destined to win outright today.

Yours truly told you to tease down the Buccaneers last week to -1 and hot christ, did we need every one of those teaser points as Brady won by 2 in a monsoon. It was raining so hard you would’ve thought that they replayed the 2006 and 2011 Superbowls on the jumbotron at Gilette stadium and those were the tears of Pats fans. Patriots go down to Houston where the city is generic and the football team is an absentee father. Hey, did you know Bellichik is 22-6 against rookie QBs? And good ol Darth Hoodie has lost TWO straight games? What’s my prediction for the Pats/Houston game? Paaaaain. Pats 8-4 ATS against Houston and 8-2 SU. And Houston numbers? 1-4 SU at home of late, 1-6 SU vs AFC, and 1-6 ATS in October. To quote Chris Russo, I’d be shocked…shocked…SHOCKED if the Pats didn’t run them out of the building. But I sure as hell wouldn’t lay 8.5, especially on the road…ESPECIALLY when they’re down 4 offensive linemen. I put this bet in 3 days ago but I think you know where this is going…

First leg of teaser: Pats down to -2.5

The next leg of a teaser JUMPED out at me. The Green Bay/Cincy over under is 50.5 and I’m floored it hasn’t skyrocketed. Cincy is getting Tee Higging back but Joe Mixon is banged up. Jaire Alexander is out for GB and that defense is worse than Nanette’s Netflix special. Pack have gone over 6/8 of late but the Bengals are 4/6 under at home and 6/7 vs NFC. Again, I’d be SHOCKED if this game didn’t have some points scored and when you get the 6 points to play with, 44.5 is AMAZINGLY easily to attain. That’s 24-21 and the way Burrow and Rodgers are slinging it around like Megan Fox will when she dumps be when she dumps the tiny human Rorsharch test, Travis Barker. Unless he has a drumstick hanging between his legs on that 135 lb body, I can’t see him wowing her with witticisms.

Second leg of teaser: GB over to 44.5

Carolina got smoked by Dallas like their mediocre bbq sauce. Sorry kids, it’s KC or Texas style BBQ or you’re bringing Dominos to a discussion about pizza. As of of Saturday night, McCaffrey is doubtful. You know what else is doubtful? The Eagles defense showing up and playing a competitive game. Cause they’ve let up 80 points in 2 games. Philly and everyone not named Dallas are 1-2 in the NFC east, amazing. Eagles 2-5 ATS of late, 1-7 ATS on the road. Carolina on the other hand has Sam Darnold playing out of his mind; did you know he’s the NFL rushing TD leader right now? Which continually proves the Jets can fuck up boiling water. Panthers 5-2 ATS of late and 12-5 SU vs the NFC East. And they’re 4-2 ATS in week 5. This defense is like an apple you’re about to pick with your girlfriend in an orchard because you got caught cheating on her. Cause there’s no man alive who voluntarily wants to go apple picking unless they got caught up in some shit. Also, the Eagles/Panthers have gone over 4/5

Carolina -3 and over 44.5, 2 separate bets

Vikings had a hell of a time with Cleveland last week. No, not helping Cleveland people fit in size 38 waisted pants but that defense ate Kirk Cousins the fuck up. Lions may be without Sewell, their brand new OT. They’re definitely without their top corner, their top pass rusher, and TJ Hockenson is banged up. I HAVE to think the Vikes bounce back, despite Dalvin Cook questionable. Let’s cut the horseshit:

Teaser: Vikings to -2.5 and Panthers over 38

Vegas Raiders and their number one fan, jersey name Raider Pussy 1 (wish I got a pic of it to share with you fine people), had a rough loss Monday night and missed my over tease with a late Carr pick. Call me square but Christ, do you trust Justin Fields in Vegas? Didn’t look good the last few weeks cause shit, they BARELY won against the Lions. Lions have FOUR red zone turnovers last week and the Bears won by 10. THANK GOD I did a 7 point teaser with the Lions and Vikes as I covered by .5. Bears are 2-4 ATS of late and 2-6 ATS on the road. Vegas stats don’t back up the play: 3-7 ATS of late, 1-5 SU in October, 2-4 ATS in week 5, but 4-1 SU. No David Montgomery either so it’s Damien Williams on the ground and Darnell Mooney/Allen Robinson in the air. I don’t think the Bears stand a chance and the number is right.

Oakland -5.5

So the Giants and Jets decided to do their “Requiem for a Dream” impression and make me take a double ended dildo by winning OT games last week. And as a Giants fan, I’ve seen this movie before. Giants win a game, get confidence, and start covering against the spread or even, gasp, win! Giants went 2-0 ATS last year against Dallas, winning 1 and ALMOST won both. Now, the Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS against NFC. Dallas is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 SU of late. But Dallas 2-5 ATS against NFC East, 1-4 ATS in October, and 3-6 SU in week 5. Would you believe it if the Giants won the game? Not that crazy. Would you believe if the Giants lost but kept it close? EASILY. Could they get blown out? Sure but not likely the way the offense is starting to click.

Giants +7

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3