NFL picks week 6 ATS

3-3-1 last week so another week of .500. Not winning money, just losing vigs. But good news is no losing weeks all season. 17-10-1 for the year gives me a 63% success rate so very much still in the black. And I loved our latest episode photo of Point Break on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast that I had to add it here, make sure you give it a listen and subscribe!

People are loving TB this year and I want you to point out a good win they’ve had. They got lucky against a bad Chargers team and just lost to Nick Foles. But the Packers have done nothing but make me money this year. They’re GB-9-3-2 following a bye.  GB 5-1 ATS, 10-1 SU of late and 5-1 SU on road.  GB 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS in October.  TB 2-4 ATS, 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs NFC north.  TB 0-5 ATS in October.

Taking GB on the money line as the line is -1. Why not pay a few dollars more to get it at a pick em? 

Did I call the Browns last week or what? Now the Colts looked like pureed dog shit against them. You know they’re going to be pissed and thankfully, they get a cupcake Bengals team. Some stats? Sure. Colts 7-0 ATS before a bye.  Indy 13-3 SU at home, 5-2 in October.  Cincy 3-16-1 SU last 20, 4-9 SU against Indy and 1-8 SU in Indy.  0-14-1 SU on the road.  But you know what’s a great idea? Teasing the Colts down to below a FG. So here’s the first leg of the teaser.

Second half of the teaser: Houston gives up a lot of points and they can also put up points. Hou Over 4/6 of late, Tenn 4/5 over.  7/8 over at home for Tenn.  Tannehill fresh off a curb stomping of the Bills, they’ll put up points early on Hou. And Houston will be airing it out to chase points so there’s the second leg of the teaser.

Colts -2 and Hou over 47.5 

Baker has bruised ribs and can’t play fast.  Cle 4-2 ATS in Pitt but 3-16-1 SU in Pitt.  Cle 1-7 ATS on road, 0-10 in Pitt.  Cle 1-4 vs AFC and 2-4 SU in AFC north.  Pitt 4-1 SU, 7-1 SU at home.  8-1-1 ATS in October. Pittsburgh is having an all-world start, best since the 70’s when they won all those Superbowls. No jokes, just take the Steelers.

Pitt -3.5

I fucked up and locked in 2 different teasers with the Colts. So that’s the first half of the teaser. The second half, Denver Broncos are 3-7 SU in NE, 3-9 on road, 0-5 ATS in NE.  2-6 SU vs AFC east.  No Noah Fant and no Melvin Gordon for the Broncos. Pats have Cam and Gilmore back.  17-3 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in October. I would rather try to paint Mohammed in a French magazine than bet against Bellichick with 2 weeks to prepare against a team with 2 shitty QBs and a middle of the road third one. And we’re teasing the Pats down to a key number; although I think they cunt punt them without the 6 points we’re getting from the teaser.

Indy -2 and Patriots -3

The Jets are worse than having to sit in Lincoln tunnel traffic with your stomach having the diarrhea gurgles. Jets 0-5 ATS and SU, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 SU vs Miami.  Jets 3-14 SU on road and 1-4 vs AFC East.  Miami 5-2 ATS of late, 5-1 against AFC, 5-0 ATS in week 6.

Arizona 4-1 ATS and SU in Dallas.  But 2-14 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS vs NFC west. Now you’re probably saying, “holy shit, you’re betting on the soul less ginger known as Andy Dalton?” Yep. Because they’re going to feed Zeke like they should’ve been done all year. And Arizona fresh off a blowout win against the Jets now have to fly back home and then Dallas? I don’t think Dallas gets blown out and with the teaser, it’s a key number for Red Riding Hood.

Miami -3.5 and Dallas +7

SF has been bad but they’re getting people back on the field.  They’re 13-4 SU against NFC, 5-2 vs NFC west.  Yes, Niners are 2-5 ATS at home but Rams mightily struggle here, 3-6 SU and ATS in SF. Niners need this game to stay entrenched in the wild card race and I think they keep it close, maybe even win. Rams have been traveling all over the place and despite my misstep picking against them last week; I think it’s gotta catch up to them sometime and this is it.

Jim Harbaugh is the Bobby Bowden from the FSU days in the 90’s. He just runs up those scores without give .5 fucks. Bal 12-3-1 ATS in 16, 16-2 SU.  4-2 ATS against Philly. 8-0 SU on road, 7-0 vs NFC.  Philly 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 SU.  1-4 vs AFC. Philly showed some fight against Pitt but in true Philly fashion, gagged it up like a bulimic after eating a cheesesteak at Geno’s. Don’t worry, Carson Wentz will still put up his 2-3 picks this game and the Ravens will coast. They’ll have an easier time beating the Eagles than going home and dodging bullets in Baltimore.

Bal -3.5 and Niners +8.5

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail.  Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks).  I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver.  Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.)   I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them.  The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning.  However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit.  The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover.  I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter.  So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets.  Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai.  But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland.  And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy.  The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show.  Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace.  They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe.  The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet.  I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under.  And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score.  You know who else doesn’t score?  The NY football Giants.  Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face.  Full of holes and hard to watch.  I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas.  Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  They floundered in NE and Tennessee.  Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under.  Houston also on the under train, 6/7.  I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”.  But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL.  So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team?  Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable.  He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday.  Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday.  The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ.  Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel.  Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid.  Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going 

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system.  No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back.  10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense.  And Carolina is 7/10 over at home.  Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year.  Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers.  Smell a theme?  Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile.  Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film.  Brees on the road?  Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent.  A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons.  Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL.  But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints.  They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance.  And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.  

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5) 

Week 2 NFL ATS picks

lesko

This guy promised you free money.  I’m GIVING you free money!

When you’re good, take a bow.  And goddamn, am I good!  Last week, 6-1, repeat 6-1, while in Vegas with my buddies.  We ate like kings, drank the uncle who was too touchy feely with your sister, and screamed about all that FREEEE MONEY we received.  Dal under, AZ under, Cincy, Rams, Philly under, and the “what not to do in overtime” clinic put on by the Browns and Steelers brought me my final winner.  For those of you while are going to hear this story for the rest of your lives, Cle got 2 TDs late to tie the game up. I had the under at 44 and the score going into halftime was 21-21.  Translation: 99.5% of the time, I’m fucked.  But because Ben can’t close on the road or a mouthy coed in a bar bathroom and Cleveland went all Cleveland; neither team scored and the under held on by your mothers’ steel wool pubes.  The only I lost was the Saints money line and boy, was that a hit in the pocket as the money line was -550.  And now since we have more time to write this article while Predator is on in the background, my daughter is eating popcorn, and my wife is preparing for 4 eventual moments of randy talk, let’s get to the picks!

The Filthadelphia Eagles showed that they sucked less against Matt Ryan on the road last week.  Atlanta had 20 penalties, which is 4 less than crybaby Venus Williams had at the US Open.  Was it Venus or Serena?  I don’t care.  Tennis is a half step above soccer, NASCAR, and people who play Pokemon.  Ok fat nerds, 1997 is over.  Stop chasing fake Japanese turtles in traffic while listening to Goo Goo Dolls and go do a few laps around the track that bullies chased you around in gym class.  So now Philly goes down to Tamp-er, as that morbidly obese, real life Comic Book Guy, Mike Francesa would say.  Tampa took the tits out of the Saints in their own building last week.  Do you think Tampa has it in them for back to back wins?  Statistics don’t think so.  Fitzpatrick is 1-9-1 ATS after a win.  Philly 4-2 ATS and 5-1 on the road.  Tampa is 2-4 at home against Philly.  And they’ve lost Hargroves and Grimes in the secondary.  Oh yeah, DeSean Jackson is in concussion protocol after he scored a TD and DIDN’T spike the ball before the end zone…for once.  Lastly, Philly has had 10 days to prep for this game.  You’re only laying 3 and that’s a bargain.  

I’m taking buying the Birds down to -2.5

Just read that Marcus Mariota although banged up, is going to play this Sunday.  And apparently, backup Blaine Gabbert is going to play as well.  Well, you know the old saying, when you have 2 QBs, you have zero QBs.  Tennessee showed me nothing last week and although Watson wasn’t good at all in NE, the Texans were hanging tight against the Pats.  Houston 11-3 ATS as well as 5-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Hopkins is probable for Houston and Delanie Walker is out for the year for the Titans.  And hell, I even like the under 43 as there is supposed to be some rain.  Maybe the hurricane reaches there as plays a role.  

But I’m buying down the Texans to -2.5 for sure and maybe the under 44

The Steelers are back home where you’ll hear one of the worst accents in the world.  Yinz? Pop?  Jesus, can you people NOT home school your kids when you dropped out of the 6th grade to work in the coal mines?  But there are 3 things for sure: Death, Taxes, and Toronto relief pitcher Tyler Clippard shitting the bed.  And the 4th is usually Ben Rothliesberger at home; ESPECIALLY after a shit tie.  And who has the Cleveland under 5.5 for the season?  Your favorite neighborhood handicapper.  The Chiefs defense got gouged but hung on against the Chargers last week.  No Eric “Dingle” Berry for the Chiefs.  Ben and the boys actually close a game out in Pittsburgh while Leveon Bell misses out on another 500k game check.  The last time someone avoided Pennsylvania this long, it cost her the election.  Zing!

I’m buying the Steelers down to -2.5

The Jets shocked the world when they beat Detroit.  Detroit shocked everyone when Matt Stafford did his best Nathan Peterman impression.  Are the Jets going to score a lot of points again?  No. Miami is going to come into the Meadowlands and cool down from those points they put up in that marathon last week against the Titans.  Jets got 5 TOs and a lot of POT.  Sam Darnold won’t be winging it all over the place.  Miami is 6/8 under in NY so we’re going to make this easy and take.

Jets under 43

I love the Chargers in Buffalo because well, it’s Buffalo.  And they stink.  And they’re starting a rookie QB.  Also, the Chargers offense will light it up against a hangdog Buffalo D.  I know the whole, west coast team flying east for a 1pm game argument but the Bills are so bad, I don’t care.  I bought the point and took…

Chargers -6.5

Lastly, here are 6 words you RARELY hear me say: I love the Giants this week.  They had a chance or 2 to take down the Jags.  Dallas looks AWFUL, ZERO offense for them.  They didn’t cross the 50 until the THIRD QUARTER last week.  I just think the Giants are not doing 0-2 again this year.  And getting 3?  Sure, why not?  Watch this game be 21-10 Dallas.  But here’s an absolute LOCK:  The Giants are 7/8 with the under and Dallas is 5/5 in recent under.  Giants/Dallas go under 4/5.  Eli and his moderately confused looking face win in a low scoring fashion.

Take the Giants +3 and the Under 41.5

2018 NFL Week 1 picks ATS

Some of you love to wish away my summer.  Well congrats, it’s now gone.  Thanks a lot, you vortexes of fun.  The only good news is that leaves me with a couple of things: my annual trip to Vegas and of course, FREEEEEE MONEY!  So I’m writing out my picks on Thursday night, 9/6, and we’re going bare bones this article.  Why? Because my flight leaves in a few hours and you’re not paying me for these.  Even though last year, I was 58%.  

I took Philly under 45.  Because Nick Foles isn’t looking good in the preseason and at time of this article, he’s not looking good now.  

You should know that under are the soup d jours in the first 2 weeks of the year as most offensive still haven’t fully clicked.  And with that gem, I also locked in Pitt under 44 because Pitt has gone under 7/8 on the road, 8/11 playing Cleveland, and 5/5 when playing in Cleveland.  Pitt is also 13-2-1 under on the road, yikes.  And there are chances of thunderstorms.  Remember, Ben sucks on the road.  

Whenever a team has to travel far, don’t expect much scoring.  And with that theme, let’s also take the Cardinals under 43.5.  Washington has gone under 4/6 and 4/6 in AZ.  AZ has gone under 10/15 and 14/20.  And they have to travel 1500 miles with Alex Smith learning the ropes in game 1.  New QB for Arizona, uh oh. Wait, never mind.  It’s Sam Bradford, who’s barely played in the last 3 years.  Carry on.

The sharps talked me into taking the Bengals +3 (I’m buying the half point).  Luck hasn’t thrown downfield all preseason?  And who else on that offense scares you?  Exactly.  How is their defense?  Still garbage?  Thought so.  Bengals front 7 is solid and also has a good o line.  I might even take the under 48 as Indy is 5/5 on the under and 5/5 under at home.  Also, 5/5 at home playing Cincy.  

In my only favorite of the week, no way (watch it happen now) the Jets go into Detroit and cover.  Rookie QB Sam Darnold won’t be looking to air it out, he’ll be playing it safe in his debut.  Jets are 2-5 ATS and 1-3-1 on the road.  Take the Lions -6.

Dallas and Carolina ALEADY have banged up offensive lines?  Jesus, that was fast. Cowboys on the road: under hit 4/5 and 8/9.  Dallas with no one on offense but Zeke?  I MAY take Carolina under 42.

I love the Saints but I don’t know about laying that NAWWWWNE and a half.  I may take them on the money line at -440 but let’s see…

Those are your picks for week 1 and if you want to follow along on my win total bets, I took Baltimore under 8, Cleveland under 5.5 (GTFO, they’re not going from 0 to 6 wins in a season, and Buffalo under 5.5.  

 

Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

Week 15 NFL Picks ATS

5-2 last week, ohhhh baby.  Looks like my daughter gets more than a Hess truck for Christmas.  Just kidding, we make a real living.  And I’ll heavily wager that if you got a Hess truck for Christmas, you had a divorced dad who forgot to buy a Christmas present for you and had to call an audible at a gas station.  So the money came pouring in last week and for the year, I’m 61%.  SIXTY ONE PERCENT, THAT’S FUCKING INSANE.  AND YOU SHOULD BE TIPPING ME OUT FOR THESE GENIUS PICKS!  Feel free to do so at PayPal: Kgootee@hotmail.com

And if you were curious about the new Star Wars film, check out my review here: Star Wars The Last Jedi Review (No spoilers)

I like the Saturday night game, here’s why: KC under hits 13/18 at home.  KC also under has hit in 4/5 as well as when KC plays LAC, the under has hit 5/7.  And LA has hit the under 4/5 on the road and 7/8 games.  

Took KC under 47

You know who’s bad?  The NY Jets on the road.  They got ram-rodded (probably a top 5 gay bar name) by the anemic Denver Broncos.  Yes, Josh McCown got knocked out of the game.  And who came in, Bryce Petty.  I’d rather have Lori Petty or the corpses of Tom and Richard Petty.  You know who’s good?  The Saints.  You know who’s REALLY good?  The Saints after a loss.  Let’s also add that the Saints have had 10 days to prep for this game after yours truly picked Atlanta to cover against them last Thursday.  No Wilkinson for the Jets as he’s truly a piece of shit and probably won’t play a game for the rest of the year.  Jets are 0-5 in road games facing a team with a winning home record.  Jets are 1-5-1 of late.  Saints are 6-2 vs the Jets and 5-1 ATS as home favorites of 10.5 or more.  This line is 16.5 and I don’t give 2 flying fucks.  The Jets will be lucky to score 10 points but that won’t matter because the Saints are scoring at least 35. And here’s why you should take the under as well.  Jets are 6/8 on the road as the under.  Saints vs Jets has the under hit the last 4/6.  

Take the Saints -16.5 and the under 47

Baltimore Ravens are 7/9 with the over and 5/6 on the road.  Cleveland is recently 4/6 with the over.  No Jimmy Smith for Bal so this is a quick and easy pick.

Take the Ravens over 42.5

I may be too in love with this team but I think the co-lock of the week besides the Saints is the Rams.  After a tough loss, they get Robert Woods back and head into Seattle where the defense is more gored than a tourist who ran with the bulls in Pamplona.  The Rams are 6-2 and 4-1 on the road ATS.  They just lost a tough one to the Eagles.  Seattle of late is 2-4-1 and I see the Rams taking control of the division with a win today.

Take the Rams +1.5

You might be asking me about the game of the day which is the shitbag Pats (And I told you that the Dolphins were covering that game but they go and shock everyone by winning outright, go figure) vs the Steelers.  The Steelers fucked me last week by blowing a 2 TD lead and not covering.  The numbers SCREAM Patriots, ESPECIALLY after a loss.  But for some reason, I think the analysts got into my head and here’s a stat for you.  Ben is 6-1 ATS as a home dog.  But here are some other numbers to consider: Pats are 7/9 with the under and 5/6 on the road with the under.  But when the 2 teams play, they go over 9/13 and 5/7 of late. So I think I MAY take…

The Steelers under 54.  This number is climbing and I think the under is the better play but haven’t locked it in.  This depends on how I do at 1pm.

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.

 

Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5