NFL Week 15 picks ATS

Well kids, I take my lumps when I deserve them.  And I take my bows when I deserve them.  Last week, I went 7-0, SEVEN AND ZERO!!!  Yep kids, TB under, Oak, KC under, Indy, Seattle, GB, and the Rams under ALL cashed. For the year, 54-39 for a whopping 58% for the year.  I did take the KC under on Thursday night which was busted with 7 seconds left in the game.  So we start 0-1 for the week and here we go.

Lock of the week is SF +4.5.  Yes, the numbers are insanely stacked against SF in past games. Seattle has been outgunned yard wise  5 out of their last6.  Niners crushed by Seattle last time they played but Niners outgained them by 127 yds.  Seattle is on a short week as well as 99% likely to make the playoffs so need to put the pedal to the metal.  Less motivation for the Seahawks and the number is right.  The line opened at 5 and now it’s 3.5 so you better snatch it up now before it gets below an advantageous spot.

SF +4.5

Next game is another where one team has the playoffs all but locked up but the other team has to fight to remain in the thick of it.  Dallas has won 5 straight, including an overtime thriller.  They’re on the road and maybe a little tired.  Dallas is going to win the division so don’t be surprised if they’re not gung ho.  Frank Reich already knows how to cover against the NFC east.  Colts 6-1 SU of late and 4-1 at home.  Again the line is at the right spot so it’s the time to grab…

Indy -2.5

Teaser time!  Remember, tease through 7 and 3.  The rest stop bathroom known as Kirk Cousins is home against Miami who just played their superbowl last week against the Pats.  Miami 2-9 ATS on the road and 2-3-1 ATS on the road.  Minnesota 17-7-1 at home ATS and 10-2 SU at home.  I’ve teased this from 7.5 down to 1.5 so it’s virtually a pick em.

Minnesota and Baltimore teased down to -1.5 each.

Last pick is another easy one, I hope. The mongrels from Philly head to LA and they’re trotting out Nick Foles. Philly hasn’t been scoring and now add that on to a pissed off Rams team that got diarrheaed on by the Bears. The Eagles aren’t scoring enough, 5/7 under of late. to bust this over so we’re going

Rams under 52.5

Bonus pick: 

Everyone and their slutty grandmother is pounding the Pittsburgh/Pats over.  It opened
at 49, now it’s 55.5.  Pats have been 5/6 under of late, 8/11 under on the road, and 4/6
when playing Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh has been 4/6 under of late.  Ben has cracked ribs to 
boot so I’m going to keep watching that number go up and then go 
Pittsburgh under 55.5 or more?
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NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail.  Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks).  I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver.  Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.)   I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them.  The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning.  However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit.  The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover.  I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter.  So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets.  Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai.  But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland.  And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy.  The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show.  Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace.  They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe.  The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet.  I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under.  And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score.  You know who else doesn’t score?  The NY football Giants.  Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face.  Full of holes and hard to watch.  I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas.  Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  They floundered in NE and Tennessee.  Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under.  Houston also on the under train, 6/7.  I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”.  But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL.  So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team?  Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable.  He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday.  Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday.  The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ.  Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel.  Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid.  Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going 

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system.  No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back.  10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense.  And Carolina is 7/10 over at home.  Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year.  Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers.  Smell a theme?  Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile.  Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film.  Brees on the road?  Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent.  A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons.  Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL.  But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints.  They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance.  And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.  

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5) 

NFL Divisional Playoff picks ATS

Well folks, we’re right in the thick of the NFL playoffs.  Sorry I didn’t get an article to you last week but if you follow me on FB, you would’ve seen my elephant shit picks.  Ugh, the only one I got right was the Seattle under, 1-3 for the weekend.  The Pitt over almost hit and my dad always said, there’s no such thing as half pregnant.  I went with Oakland and the rookie QB, Connor Cook.  I thought Brock Osweiller would be worse but he did enough to cover.  The Giants wide receivers forgot how to catch except they were able to catch a flight to hang out with Justin Bieber.  Seriously, if you’re going to take a mini-vacation during an off day, the last thing I’m doing is hanging out with that little fruit.  I’d rather hang out with Justin Verlander so I can hopefully see Kate Upton topless and those massive…acting chops.  

Let’s talk gambling for this week:  I took the ATL over last night and sweated out the Patriots -16 so 2-0 for the week so far.  First game today is GB/Dal. You can truly make a case for both: Aaron Rodgers is hotter than gonorrhea and Emily Rajakowski (I’d still do her if she had an std AND make her a mixtape.)  Dallas can run the ball on anyone, has had 2 weeks of rest, but has a rookie QB at the helm. GB is without Jordy Nelson but that didn’t stop Rodgers from dismantling the Giants in the 2nd half.  The stats are favoring both teams (Dallas is 5-0 SU at home and 9/10 vs GB at home while GB is 5/5 SU.  The last 5/5 have gone over for GB.)  Here’s what I think: I think Dallas plays ball control and runs that ball down their throats and is able to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands. 

God, I hope Dallas loses cause there would be nothing worse than a Patriots/Dallas Superbowl.  I’d have to root for a meteor to fall just like I did when the Patriots played the Eagles.

I’m leaning GB but I locked in:

GB Under 53

I don’t mind the Chiefs nor the Steelers but let’s be honest: the ONLY team in the AFC who has a chance of knocking off the Pats (and they did look a little vulnerable last night) are the Steelers.  The problem though is Pittsburgh on the road isn’t as good.  And Andy Reid off a bye 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in the regular season.  In the playoffs: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Wow, pretty solid numbers.  Pitt outside of the eastern time zone is 6-14.  But man, it’s certainly hard to bet against Ben.  The line is KC-2 but I’m a hell of a lot more sold on these facts: KC have gone UNDER in 6/7 at home and Pitt has gone 6/7 UNDER on the road.  It’s freezing cold and the game got moved because of an ice storm that was supposed to hit KC.  So this is a no-brainer for me to take: 

KC under 44.5

Week 17 NFL Picks ATS

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Rough week last week, worst since week 2 but let’s bounce back in a big way.  Sorry for the delay but most of these games are going on now with a few 4pm games.  Tough week for picks because of most of the playoff seeds are determined so more over/unders

I took the Colts -4.5 against Jax and as of now, not looking good against the Jags.  They’re currently down, 17-0.  I figured that Jax got their win out of the way last week with a new coach, Indy’s at home, let’s roll the dice.  Public kicked that line up to 6 by kickoff.

Also locked in the Pats/Miami over 46.  Pats are all over them with a few minutes left in the first half, 20-0 so that over looks to be relatively on track so far.

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My lock of the week is Cle/Pitt under 42.  Pitt is resting everyone and Cle can barely score with all of the 1’s out there.  That score is 14-0 with a few minutes left in the half so I feel confident with that one.  

The Saints are in Atl and Atl is still fighting for a 1st rd bye.  The o/u is 56.5 which is insanely high.  I grabbed the Saints +7.5 because they can definitely match scores with the Falcons and I think the extra .5 will help.

Lastly, I took the KC/SD under 44.5.  Chiefs might have spend their load last week in that offensive outburst last week against Den.  The last 4/5 games played by SD were unders and the last 4/5 games that SD played KC were also unders.  Good enough for me.

 

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues.  But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.

I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year.  So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!

You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and  Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking. 

Take the Jets and a mountain of points.

I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week.  Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them.  And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.

Indy plus 3.5 and over 53

The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2?  UGHH.  At least I could’ve had a shot in OT.  People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department.  A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week.  The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less.  Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here. 

Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.

The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?

I’m going with the Bears +3

Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me.  I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.

I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.

Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.

For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4

Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.

Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43

Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.  

I’m going with the under 51.

Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.  

I’m taking Green Bay -7

And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week.  (That’s a big lock)

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A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.

Take Mia over 42

 

 

Week 15 NFL picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-3 last week so more freeeee money came rolling in so I continue to make $.  If you’re hitting these picks, do the right thing and paypal (Kgootee@hotmail.com) a cut of your winnings.  If it wasn’t for me, that free money wouldn’t be rolling in and you’ve have to do something like work a job to earn a few bucks for Christmas presents.  

KC is home after a 10 day layoff against the Titans. And if you’re going to the game, load up on blackberry brandy cause it’s gonna be cold. I know, that’s something your grandfather would tell you to do, especially when you park at “make out point” with your girl. Tenn doesn’t put up THAT many points and neither does KC. It’s 14 degrees there at 11:50am and feels like -8. The ball is gonna feel like a rock so..

I’m taking the under 42

Baltimore screwed me on mon night with a blown coverage td so I lost by .5. Now they play a demoralized, non-motivated Philly team at home. Philly d has been as awful as the reviews as the new Will Smith film. I mean, did he hire the same person who also screened scripts for Jim Carrey after 2000? Bal needs this game to stay within the hunt and the number is friendly. I l know the public loves it and Jimmy Smith is out for Bal but philly is 2-10 ATS the week before they play the Giants

I’m taking the Ravens -5.5

The Packers own December. The Packers own the Bears. The Bears are playing well ATS recently with Barkley. Aaron Rodgers has a calf that is flaring up as of late. What should you do? Here’s a cold (pun intended) hard fact. It’s also colder than Hillary Clinton’s labias in Chicago. As of 12:35 pm, it’s 11 degrees but feels like -4. Don’t be a hero, just win money.

I’m taking the gb under 38.5

It’s been too long since New Orleans lit it up. They’re playing in AZ and both teams aren’t playing for anything. I love the saints in a dome and I like AZ to put up points at home. It’s gonna be a loosey goosey atmosphere so…

I’m taking AZ over 50

Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5. Dalllas 15-31 ats in december but throw those numbers out because that’s under Romo. Dallas covered only 11/37 as a home favorite. Again, a lot of that is under Romo. But Dallas is losing steam and the Bucs are gaining steam. There are enough points are enough for me to

Take the Bucs +7

And in my locks of the week:

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Oak has had 10 days off to think about that stinker in KC. They’re on the road where they are 15-2 ATS as visitors. SD lost Melvin Gordon for this week so that means more air show and probably more turnovers from Phillip Rivers. It’s laughable when people say he’s better than Eli. Rivers owns garbage fantasy football time but lacks in the rings department. He hands that ball over like he’s been held at gunpoint. But Oak gives up points as well as scores them. So that’s why I’m taking:

Oak -2.5 and over 49.5

NFL Week 10 picks

Last week 2-3-1 after Den and the Browns didn’t show up.  The Titans gave that game away and the Jets fucked me to a push as Fitzpatrick went Fitzpatrick.  Clean slate now, let’s do this!

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Well, not so clean slate.  I took Cle over last week and Flacco and the Cle QBs fucked me but good so I missed that one.  So, starting the week 0-1.

Drew Brees is home and facing a Den offense that couldn’t score against the Raiders.  The Raiders?  That defense is putrid.  Also will mention Derrick Wolfe and both Den CBs are out.  Denver can’t stop the run and if Ingram doesn’t fumble, they can run the ball down their throats.  Did I mention Drew Brees is home?

I’m taking the Saints -3

The Jets are home with a Bryce Petty at QB and the Rams come to town.  Both teams score less than white men with Khloe Kardashian.  This reeks of 17-13.  The under is 39 which means VERY little wriggle room but I just don’t see the scoreboard lighting up unless there is a power surge.

I’m taking the under 39.

Carolina is home against a beleaguered Chiefs who is without Maclin and Justin Houston on defense.  Bet the Chiefs at home, don’t touch them on the road.  Carolina is making a mini run and 3 points isn’t too much to ask for but then again, people who took Carolina said that last week as they got backdoor pushed.

I’m taking Carolina -3

I cannot see Pittsburgh losing this week.  I don’t care Dallas is hotter than Donald Trump’s daughter.  (I’d make her a mix tape, that’s how hot she is).  Pitt had a rough week last week but Ben will be ready to roll.  They’re home, the line is only a FG, and I think the Black and Yellow squad stop those dildos from Dallas.  Dallas is due for a loss and here it is.

I’m taking Pittsburgh -3

San Diego has done nothing but cover spreads as an underdog.  I just don’t know if Miami is going to through a monkey wrench on their “home field advantage.”  SD doesn’t handle success well but here’s what I do know, SD puts up points.  And Miami could put up some points as well so what does that mean?  That’s right, enjoy watching both teams score points.  Jarvis Landry is probably playing as Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams.  Travis Benjamin is doubtful but I think points can be scored.

I’m taking the over 49.

I hate the Patriots but goddamn, they’ve made me a ton of cash.  I took Brady in 2 leagues and waited out the suspension so I look like a genius.  Pats are off the bye and at home against Seattle.  Buffalo came into Seattle and scored more than everyone thought would.  Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be.  Flying across country after playing a monday night game and going into New England is about as fun as watching Hillary fake laugh her way through a speech.  Dion Lewis is back as well so more weapons for Tom the Trump supporter to play with.  Bellichek is >60% ATS at home and I plan on riding that money train into the sunset.  

I’m taking NE -7.5