NFL week 16 picks ATS

Merry Christmas everyone and let’s dig yourself out of the credit card holes for Christmas presents. Last week, 3-2 to get back on the winning side. I hit the Saints in the first leg of a teaser and the Bucs in another leg of a second teaser. I lost with the Cardinals -5 yesterday as they were flatter than an A cup against a 3rd string QB. 0-1 to start this week, 48-40 YTD which is 55% for the season, still in the black!

I absolutely love the Bears this week, which is something I thought I would NEVER say anytime soon. When Trubisky and Montgomery have played together this season, they’re putting up 30 ppg. Bears have scored 69 points in 2 games which takes the Jets about a month to do. And they’re playing Jacksonville, who unlike the aforementioned AAA football team of NY, won’t fuck up the #1 pick. Jax 4-8 ATS of late, 0-10 SU of late. They’re also 0-6 SU at home. Bears are 2-6 ATS of late but 4-2 ATS against Jacksonville. And the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot and well as Trubisky is fighting for a job. This has PRIME teaser taste to it and that’s exactly what I did here.

First leg of teaser, Bears -1.5

Last week, the Rams were as embarrassing as Dr. Fauci’s first pitch in the World Series. If there’s anyone to back after a loss, it’s the Rams: 13-5 ATS after a loss. 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Also, the Rams 12-5 ATS on the road. Rams are 5-2 against Sea and average 33 ppg against them. Seattle 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU. And we’re going to make this an even safer play. McVay is a covering machine against Seattle, I see no difference here.

Second leg of teaser Rams +7.5

The Chiefs aren’t covering games AT ALL. Pushed last week against the Saints and I believe their last 5 wins have been by no more than 6. They get up and then take their foot off the gas pedal. Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS of late but 9-0 SU, 12-1 SU at home. All 1-4 SU of late, 3-6 SU in KC. But here’s a stat that jumped out at me: Matt Ryan as a double digit dog is 5-1 ATS. And the Chiefs D is 32nd in RZ defense. Tyreek Hill will be on a snap count so having their home run hitter limited is another bullet I have. Here’s hoping the Chiefs D does Tera Patrick used to do for many moons, let strangers in her backdoor.

First leg of the teaser Falcons +16.5

A lot of people love Green Bay at home where they’ve been a covering machine. And I have made a TON of money this year teasing GB down but you may have noticed if you’re betting at the regular number, they’re not covering SHIT. 2-4 ATS of late but 6-1 SU and 12-1 SU at home. It’s snowing all day in GB and a high of 28. Green Bay is 21st against the run and you know they’ll be dialing up Derrick Henry and controlling the clock. Rodgers is great in the snow but I don’t see him winning by a TD. Hell, they might even lose. Tenn is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Also, 4-1 SU against GB and 10-2 SU on the road. Everyone loves backing the Pack at home but you’d better to it on the ML and not lay the 3.5…

Second leg of teaser Titans +9

Thank Christ I didn’t take the Pittsburgh game monday night but that’s going to play a role into this next pick. Cincy obviously blew their load on monday night and now they face a Texans team who is better than their record as well as got the short shrift on some games. See: Colts games this season. Now they’re home against the Bengals and the time is right to fire in. I know Hou is 5-10 ATS of late, 4-11 SU. And Cincy is equally as bad: 2-4 ATS of late, 1-5 SU. And they’re 2-8 ATS against Texans, 1-8 SU. Also, 0-5 SU on the road.

This is the 2nd leg of the 7 pt, TB teaser where the first leg was the Saints. Houston down to a pick’em

Gotta have a total for you this week so here it goes, another teaser??!!! Indy has been over 7/10 of late but those are against awful defenses. Pittsburgh 5/7 under of late and they’re under fire for losing 3 straight in sloppy fashion. Indy had a great defense and they get Buckner back. I don’t see a crazy amount of scoring so let’s take the number to:

Pitt under 50.5

Chargers 8/11 over of late. I know they’ve gone under a lot of late: 4/6 under vs Denver, 9/13 at home, and 7/7 home against Denver. But Denver D is insanely porous and now Bradley Chubb is out. Joey Bosa is out as well as a couple of other defenders for the Chargers. We know Herbert can put up points and Lock had his moments this year. I think they can combine for…

2nd leg of the teaser, Chargers over down to 43

Lastly, we’ve got one more leg of a teaser to fill and boy, I love this one. The Bills have been the cuckholded boyfriend in the AFC east to the Pats since I wore sweater vests and puka shell necklaces. But now, the tables are turning/have turned. I think the Bills come out and shove a roman candle in Bellichick’s ass for 20 years worth of beatings. Bills are 6-0 ATS of late, 7-1 SU. The Pats are done and sticking with Cam which no one can explain. Bills with a few extra days rest and plenty of motivation to get that 2 seed. The ONLY thing the Pats have in their corner besides their coach is some quasi-recent success against the Bills: 6-2 ATS vs NE, 7-1 SU. But those go past the Josh Allen era and I’m more than happy to take 6 points and make this virtually a pick em.

2nd leg of the Saints teaser, Bills -1

Super Bowl bets and props!

Tis everyone’s favorite time of year for betting and also the saddest as it’s the end of football.

Not burying the lead so let’s get past the date and head right to the sex in the car at a Chili’s parking lot.

Chiefs -1

Rule 1 when handicapping.  Who has the better QB and head coach?  Chiefs have both.  Here’s another X factor: Sometimes it’s just someone’s time.  Unfortunately, it was just Philly’s time 2 years ago.  Andy Reid has been the bridesmaid a ton of times and never the bride.  I think this is his time.  Can you imagine that feast he’s going to indulge in after a SB win?  He’s going to give Kobayashi and Rebel Wilson a real run for their money.  We all know the Chiefs weakness is their running game BUT in the past few weeks in the playoffs, they’ve shored up their D.  4.3 YPC allowed by KC D which is above average in the NFL.  Derrick Henry didn’t have a rush above 13 yds when they played them 2 weeks ago.  To be fair, that was the 3rd straight week of Henry getting over 30 carries in a game.  He lit up the first half against the Chiefs but was silent for the next 3 quarters.  Surprisingly of late, the Chiefs D has allowed 18 PPG and the Niners allowed 24 PPG.  Niners have also allowed 26.5 PPG in 9 games, ranking them 24th.

We all know Reid after the bye is numero uno.  You know what else is numero uno?  Andy Reid ATS 19-9 ATS and 23-5 SU after the bye.  KC 8-0 SU as well as ATS in a row and of those 8 in a row, they won by at least 7 ppg.  Larger sample size?   14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS.  Mahomes 22-11-2 ATS and 17-11-2 ATS as a favorite.  We all know the Niners play a zone D and how does Maholmes fare against it?  91 QBR…BEST in the NFL.  Super Bowl favorites are 33-19 SU.  Dogs have been ruling of late, 13-5 ATS.  However, since this is a 1 point game, go with the SU numbers.  The SU winner of the SB is 44-6-3 ATS and the underdog has NEVER covered a spread with a line <6.  Higher playoffs seed is 2-13-2 ATS.  Team with the better record of late is 9/10 in the Superbowl.  Niners had 13 wins, Chiefs had 12 wins.  Niners are 3-15 ATS after 2 consecutive ATS wins.

Bottom line is this.  If the Chiefs O Line holds up against a solid Niners pass rush, the Niners are dead.  If he gets out of the pocket, he’s taking off or catching Hill or Hardman on a busted coverage play.  Niners MUST run this ball and take time off the clock to win this game.  I don’t think if they’re down 10 or more that they can come back with Garappolo.  And we know the Chiefs can rally from down a bushel of points.  This isn’t an easy game to call but I’m on the Chiefs for all the reasons and stats above.

Prop bets? Got em.

Tails…never fails.  Just been lucky with it the last several years.

Under 2.5 players that attempt a pass.  I just don’t see either teams’ punters getting cute; especially when Colquitt had issues successfully punting.

Kittle Over 75.5 receiving yds.  Was quiet last week against GB only because they could run the ball down their throats better than Paris Hilton took it down her throat in Predator night vision.

Maholmes over 36.5 rushing yds.  Ran for over 50 in the last 2 games and now faces a zone defense?  Heidy-ho!

I never take props like these but I heard it was in and Vegas is steaming (everyone jumping on it) but PURPLE is the color of the Gatorade in honor of Kobe Bryant.  It went from +600 to -160 so yeah, why not?

More scoring in 2nd half than the 1st half -145

3rd quarter more scoring than 1st quarter. -150

Why?  And why the heavy juice? Chiefs are notoriously slow starters.  Halftime is obviously longer than usual plus teams love to take the governor off and let loose.  Kind of like a bunch of dudes at the Jim McGreevey rest stop, heigh ho!

Good luck and let’s end this season with even more FREEEEEE MONEY!