2021 Superbowl bet and prop bets

We all have a million reasons why 2020 sucked: Covid, unemployment, and Wonder Woman 1984. Just kidding, no one had hopes for that film. But this is the first year in 3 that your favorite football handicapper fell below 60% for the year. In fact, this year was WAY below, 52.3%. Which is a tick below the break even line of demarcation (52.5%) so yeah, fuck 2020. 58-53-2 including the playoffs where I went 0-5 in championship weekend. Yeah, I haven’t had that bad of a week since I can’t remember how long. 2-7 in the playoffs sure as shit isn’t going to get it done. So I have one pick (side, no total) for the big game and a ton of props that I won’t count toward the W/L record. So let’s see if we can close out this season on a tear like we opened the season.

Goddamn, did I fall into the “GB at home in January against a warm weather team” trap again. Rodgers STINKS in the NFC championship; went 3 and out TWICE when the defense picked off Brady. But here’s what made me sit up; Tampa Bay FEASTED on the GB backup left tackle. JPP and Shaq Barret were all over him like a freshman girl who loudly announces this is her first fraternity party. And will you look at that, the Chiefs LT tore his ACL in the championship game. When Fisher plays for the chiefs, 25-1. When he’s out, 3-3. The Chiefs o-line is alright at best. And now BOTH tackles are out? We know Maholmes handles pressure better than anyone. But Rodgers does a damn good job and where did that get him? Nowhere, fast. Ahhh, you know what ol Jack Burton always says at a time like this? Sorry, I start quoting “Big Trouble in Little China” when I get in the mood. TB also has the #1 rush defense PLUS it’s supposed to rain which also plays right into TB’s hands.

Let’s talk numbers now…1. That’s the number of car accidents that Andy Reid’s kid (assistant on the staff) got into on friday and gave a kid life threatening injuries. So yeah, that just may be a bit of a distraction. Sorry to lead off with a somber note but hey, it’s fresh off the wire (paper tearing sound effect). Next number, Chiefs are 1-5 SU against TB and 1-4 ATS in TB. And most of those numbers are with famous Jameis Winston as QB. Let’s also consider the next factor, road warrior. TB seems to be channeling the road dog mentality or as we all should call it, the 2006 NY Giants who won all their road games and kicked Tom Brady and his shot at an undefeated season right in the cunt. The Bucs have averaged 33 points in their last 10 straight games. Defense talking points: Bucs are 5th in DVOA, Chiefs are 22nd. Final point: you don’t think the NFL narrative wants Tom Brady to win (at home!) without Bellichick? If the Chiefs didn’t win last year, I’d be all over them. And when was the last time any team repeated as champions? Answer: Brady’s 03 and 04 Patriots. You also want to bet against Brady who is 6-3 in bowls? And you know Brady sees Spagnuolo across the sidelines who happened to spoil 2 of his Super Bowls and want a little retribution. We know KC is great off byes but I’m taking defense against a banged up o line plus experience with Brady.

Tampa Bay money line +145 is my bet and I placed it 30 minutes after the second game of championship weekend. Tampa will be the first team to win a Super Bowl in its own city.

Props:

Tails. You know I take that shit every year and it has hit 3 years straight.

Shortest TD: under 1.5 yds. “Deep ball into the end zone, broken up. Flag on the play!” Music to my ears and then you can dial up a Maholmes or Brady sneak or a Fournette run up the gut.

3Q outscores 1Q: Everyone starts slow in Super Bowls, especially Brady. It’s a junior high school dance, everyone stands around, afraid to make the first move. 2nd half is when people get ballsy.

2nd half outscores 1st half: Same reasons as I cited above.

1st half 28.5: UNDER. Again, the same reasons I showed above.

Roughing the passer: YES. Usually everyone is on their best behavior in the Super Bowl but again, Brady gets more flags than the United Nations. BAM! BURN! And especially on his own field, those refs will toss one if his tampon string blows in the wrong direction.

11.5 accepted penalties: UNDER- Refs keep the flags in their pockets for this unless it’s the obvious false start or encroachment. They’re gonna let them play unless the QBs get coughed on.

Kelce anytime TD. He’s a red machine magnet. Which is what I call dudes who love having sex while women are on their periods.

Gronk anytime TD. As much as I hate nostalgia based love for films on “Gutting the Sacred Cow” (you better subscribe NOW and enjoy this amazing podcast: https://guttingthesacredcow.com/where-to-listen-see-us/), I think Brady gets one to Gronkowski for all time sake.

Brady to throw a 3q TD- YES

Brady to throw a 4q TD- YES

First QB to get sacked: Brady. He has the mobility of the My Pillow guy. AFTER he stopped smoking crack and put weight back on.

Fantasy football talk/draft #1 recap

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As I’ve said before, this summer for films BLOW.  I’ll wait for Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, and Jason Bourne to hit video or stream online.  Same for Hands of Stone or Don’t Breathe.  I’m so glad Ben Hur failed miserably as Hollywood MUST be getting the memo that we’re SICK of rebooting good films.  So let’s talk Fantasy Football which we’re right in the midst of draft time.

I do 3 drafts a year and all my friends know, I draft best available player.  I’m also a fan of value, nothing better than getting a solid player later than a round or 2 later than he was expected to go.  So I’ll share with you my teams and we can cheer/mock my picks:

League 1.  Team Name: Hope Solo’s Goop Chute.  If you don’t get that reference, google Hope Solo naked selfies.  And make sure you aren’t eating at that time.

I had the 3rd pick overall and went with my boy OBJ.  He’s gonna crush it as the Giants have the best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

2nd rd: Mark Ingram.  He’s the Saints guy now and Drew Brees can’t throw 80 times a game.

3rd rd: Amari Cooper.  Oak as the 2nd best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

4th rd: Denarius Thomas. Don’t care they don’t have a QB, whomever is at the helm will do their damnedest to get him the ball.  And he’s my THIRD WR.  Wow…

5th rd: Dion Lewis.  Drafted him 6 hours before the news came down he’s going to be out 10 weeks…oops

6th rd: Donte Moncrief.  TY Hilton is not Reggie Wayne nor Marvin Harrison.  Nice 4th WR/Flex

7th rd: Frank Gore. Yes, a bit of a gamble as he’s 34.  But he’s VERY durable and he’s my number 2 back.  If he gets me 7 TDs on the season, mission accomplished.

8th rd: Tom Brady.  Goddamnit, I hate the Patriots.  But he’s going to be in full, “Fuck you” Or “Bobby Bowden mid-late 90’s Florida State running up the score” Mode.  I’m getting great value for him here.  I’m missing 4 games (5 with the bye) with Brady so all I have to do is get to week 4 at least 2-2 and I’ll be good to go.

9th rd: Danny Woodhead.  Did you you see Melvin Gordon last year?  I did because I had that shitsipper.  Here’s me snaking the guy who took Melvin Gordon

10th rd: Willie Snead.  If you missed it, Drew Brees throws…a lot.  I know he spreads it around but he’s my 5th WR and he can easily get 6 TDs this year.  The problem will be he’ll get 3 of them in 1 week while he’s on my bench.

11th rd: Travis Benjamin: Phillip Rivers doesn’t win Superbowls but he sure throws it a lot. It’s nice to have a #2 WR on a team that airs it out…

12th rd: Sammie Coates: Crushing it in training camp and will boot Markus Wheaton out of the #2 WR role.

13th Rd: Bilal Powell.  Matt Forte is old and banged up.  Not saying Powell is the answer but he sure is a nice bye week fill-in.

14th rd: Devontae Booker.  Love this pick as CJ Anderson BLOWS.  Ronnie Hillman took away a ton of his carries and Booker has almost usurped Hillman on the depth chart.

15th rd: RG3. Go ahead and laugh.  But I’m not and here’s why.  Like I said, I need him for the first 4 weeks and a bye week.  Here’s Griffin’s first 4 games: @Philly (garbage defense),  Home Baltimore (not a great D), @Miami (garbage defense), and @washington (Garbage defense and let’s not forget the “revenge against the team who cut them” factor.

16th rd: Dwayne Allen.  The rule of thumb when drafting a TE is if you don’t get a top tiered one like Gronk, Olsen, Reed, or Kelce…you wait.  And wait I did.  No Coby Fleener so no more sharing catches.

17th rd: Lions D.  My last 2 picks will ALWAYS be kicker and defense…except last night where I clicked the wrong guy and drafted a kicker in the 3rd to last rd.

18th rd: Mike Nugent.

And there you have it so comment away on my draft.  I think my only notable weakness it my number 2 RB but then again, not many people have 2 solid RBs.  I do have 3 NASTY WRs and a solid bench.  You can make the case that until I get Brady back, QB is weak too.  I’ll buy that…I’LL BUY THAT.  But I think RG3 answers all the naysayers and is at LEAST competitive.  If not, start looking for a string of RG3 car washes in the Cleveland/DC Metro/Baylor areas….