NFL against the spread picks week 15

Maaaan, another week of see-sawing, 2-3 last week and grabbed the Baltimore under this week which got decimated, gross. 45-38 for the year, 53% which is still ahead of the curve. I took GB and Den in a teaser last night which of course, lost. Then I grabbed GB and Miami under which is still in play.

You can make case for either the Pats or Fins and I could buy either of them. Bellichick owns rookie QBs, Miami own the banged up Patriots. But I’ll take the road less traveled: Pats 5/5 Under, 5/7 under. Miami under 4/6, 5/7 against AFC, 4/6 AFC east. The Patriots offense has recorded 220, 291 and 179 total yards the past three games. In the first Patriots-Dolphins meeting in Week 1, the teams totaled 32 points, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and healthy WRs and RBs for Miami. Pats missing RBs, WRs, and Geisicki, Pats are missing anything resembling a playmaker on offense. We’re teasing someone else so might as well give ourselves more of a cushion.

Teaser leg #1 Miami under 47.5

And here, I apologize to all of you, and myself, for talking us into teasing the Giants who got blown out last week against Arizona. Sigh, just when you think you have them figured out. Here’s what I do know: The Giants are WOUNDED this week: Engram has a late injury (questionable) Colt McCoy is back in (farts), but the most IMPORTANT player on the Giants is out due to Covid is James Bradberry. He’s EASILY been Gettleman’s best signing this season and maybe for his career. Top 3 corner for sure and now he’s out. Also out, Jason Garrett and a few other Giants coaches are out due to covid and their LBs coach just left to coach Illinois. So who is calling the plays for the Giants? Fab Five Freddie Kitchens. (Rodney Dangerfield collar tug) Cle 2-6 ATS but 4-1 SU of late. 1-4 ATS and SU against Giants but this is pre-Baker Mayfield. 1-4 SU on road. Giants 5-2 ATS, 4-1 SU of late, 4-12 ATS at home. I just don’t see the defense holding stout without Bradberry and Cleveland absolutely needing the game. Maybe the Giants hold tight but I just need Cleveland to win outright with this teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Browns -.5

Edit: I grabbed last night a GB and Miami under teaser so that’s still alive!

Buffalo played a great game against Pitt, one of the 2 wins I had last week. This is the 2nd cross country flight for the Bills. Also, did you know the Broncos are the SECOND BEST ATS in the NFL? Denver defense #2 in pass TDs allowed and #7 in sacks. Den 5-1 SU home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS vs AFC east. And of course, this is Josh Allen’s first trip in altitude. This could a spot when Buffalo is caught looking ahead and Drew Lock can play well enough to keep it close. Double digits, why the hell not.

First leg of teaser Den +11.5 ALREADY LOST

Look, Carolina is playing teams tough but they’ve been hit with Covid. No Christian McCaffrey, sigh. That was fun taking him #1 in my buddy’s league and then missing the playoffs by 1.8 points. Yep, you read that right, ONE POINT EIGHT FUCKING POINTS. It’s cold in Green Bay tonight but Carolina 4-2 ATS in GB, 1-4 SU. GB 5-1 SU last 6, 11-1 SU at home, 4-1 SU home against Carolina. This is a lot to say for simply stating I’m taking

Second leg of teaser GB-1.5 ALREADY LOST

Quick handicap Hou 6/8 over on the road, Indy over 4/5, 7/9, 8/11 vs AFC. Watson fumbled late to lose the game but this game definitely has points scored. And Watson gets back his #1 WR with Brandin Cooks.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Indy over 44.5

Matt Stafford is expected to play with a busted thumb and torn rib cartilage. And the last time he did that, he got shut out by the Carolina Panthers. And if Chase Daniels goes, olly olly oxen free! Det 1-4 ATS against Tenn, 0-5 SU, 1-5 SU in Tenn. Tenn 4-2 ATS, 12-5 SU. Titans and Derrick Henry run right through that awful defense.

2nd leg of 7 point teaser: Titans -2.5

Two words: DWAYNE HASKINS. I know Seattle isn’t covering for shit and not looking solid of late: Seattle 3-6 ATS, 9-4 SU. 1-4 ATS on road, 2-5 vs NFC. I know the Skins are playing REALLY tight defense and covering. Washington 4-1 ATS and SU, 4-14 SU at home. 6-2 ATS at home. And I know I would rather sit in a public restroom in a stall between Louie Anderson and Carl Winslow after they both went out for fajita Friday than lay a nickel on Dwayne Haskins. So I took Seattle down to virtually a pick em and will watch them grind out a 1-3 point win.

First leg of teaser: Sea -.5

Gonna COMPLETELY go against conventional wisdom and I got this next leg of the teaser from my buddy, Nick Whitmer. Rams 4-1 ATS and SU, 5-1 SU home against Jets, 1-4 ATS vs AFC. Hets 4-9 ATS, 2-8 ATS against Rams. The Rams are gonna hatefuck the Jets into oblivion but shit, 17.5 is a TON of points. But can the Rams win by 2 TDs and not blow a backdoor cover after pulling their starters? I think so. I know we’re not teasing through 7 and 0 but I think this one comes home easily. The Jets lone chance to win 1 game is against the Pats, not on the road in LA

Second leg of the teaser: Rams -11.5

Pitt 2-4 ATS but 11-2 SU. 10-3-2 ATS, 10-0 SU, 6-2 ATS against AFC. Cincy 1-4 ATS but 4-1 ATS at home

NFL picks Wildcard weekend ATS 2018

Bullying is frowned upon in today’s society.  But I’m a bully, that’s right, a bully.  I’ve bullied the shit out of my bookie for this season and ESPECIALLY in the month of December.  I went 21-5 in December, are you fucking kidding me?  81% is just out of this world.  I’m going to humblebrag these fun facts:  I’ve paid for a new mattress with all of this free money.  I paid for all my Christmas gifts with all of that free money.  I paid for a trip to the Caymans with all of this free money.  And I all ask from you, 9 loyal readers, is watch the latest and greatest season of Comics Watching Comics, Season 7, only on Amazon Video.  You’re getting the all-star panel, the people YOU voted to see on the All-Star edition.  So here it is and my promise to you, it will not disappoint.  Onto the picks.

Yes, the playoffs are a completely different animal.  Always try and find that hot team with karma in their pocket and ride them to the end.  This year, I think it’s the Saints.  Who out of the AFC?  Maybe the Colts, maybe the Chiefs.  But not the Texans.  Why?  Because the Texans may have one of the best pass rushes out there.  However, the Colts have the #1 ranked offensive line, only allowing 16 sacks in 16 games.  I think my boy Eli Manning would sell his children on the dark web or to Apple to make iPhones for that kind of protection.  The Colts have made me an absolute windfall of cash this season.  Is this a loyalty pick?  No.  Because even though they played Sunday night and they’re the first game on Saturday,  I think Andrew Luck can be the QB to possibly carry his team on his shoulders to the end.  Colts are 9-1 SU of late, 6-3 ATS on the road.  Colts are 5-0-1 in Houston and 17-7 SU vs Houston.  A more telling number: Colts were 5-2 ATS vs teams over .500.  Texans were 3-6 ATS vs teams over .500.  The line is 1.5 and if you’re taking the dog, you might as well take the money line as there is little value taking the 1.5.  

Hence why I grabbed the Colts on the ML +110.

Teasers have been working well for me this year, my first loss with a teaser was last week when GB failed to show up against Detroit.  Seattle is a team that you don’t want to face as Russell Wilson has become a comeback kid and no lead is safe enough.  Yes, Dallas has been good on defense but that defense gave up over 30 points last week to the Giants in a completely meaningless game.  No, they didn’t sit any of their regulars except Zeke.  Last I checked, Jason Garrett is not one to be trusted in the playoffs.  And along with other fans of NFC East teams, I’d like to thank Garrett for doing well this season as now Jerry is going to HAVE to give Garrett a new deal.  His piss poor clock management and abusing of timeouts are always welcome.  Seattle is one of the best running teams and Dallas is ok at stopping the run.  Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 6-1 SU as well.  Seattle 4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 SU on the road.  Seattle 4-1 SU playing Dallas.  Seattle has went over 7/8.  I think this stays close so let’s take Seattle and tease them up to +7.  Cause if Seattle is down, they can EASILY backdoor a cover with a TD in your pocket.  But Seattle can also put up points through the air.  Doug Baldwin gives them the NFL’s best explosive pass rate when he’s on the field (12% vs 6% when he’s not).  This is also a low total, 43.5.  This game can EASILY be 24-21 and hit the over.

First part of teaser: Seattle from +1 to +7 and separately the over, 43.5

Chargers just played Baltimore 2 weeks ago (hit that under, thank you).  So now they have real time experience against Lamar Jackson.  SD stinks at home but have only 1 loss on the road this year.  5-0 SU and ATS on the road, pretty damn good.  They’re also 5–0 against teams that are in the bottom 10 of pass defenses.  The Browns just showed everyone how to exploit the Ravens defense. Chargers are 4-2 ATS in Baltimore.  Baltimore is good at home, 4-1 ATS.  And we know Phil Rivers has yet to win a big game in the playoffs.  So why not stack my odds with the second half of my teaser?  No way the Ravens win by more than a TD.

Chargers +8.5.