Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-4 last week, worst week I’ve had in a while but still over .500 for the week so the streak continues.  But first, Merry xmas and happy hannukah. The picks are coming early as they are a shitload of games tomorrow vs Sunday. Hopefully you have a betting day than Carrie Fisher’s recent plane ride. I have a lot of facts for you but doesn’t meant I’m taking ALL of these games. Check my fb video with my little Aryan offspring tomorrow for the official picks. But I guarantee that the picks I make are from this list.

I’m a student of trends and gut calls. That’s why I’m almost at 63% for the year.  So let’s get down to getting you (and me) freeeeee money!

You know the Jets are garbage and they proved that Sat night against the Dolphins. This week, they face Tom Brady and the Cheatriots. They already locked up a first rd bye. But I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. Jets are 7-0 ATS against the spread vs the pats and  Pats are 12-25 ats when they are favored by double digits. 17 points are wayyyyy too many. Pats will take their foot off the gas by halftime and I don’t care if Ray Lucas is quarterbacking. 

Take the Jets and a mountain of points.

I really like the Colts in Oakland this week. Indy destroyed the Vikes and their playoff chances last week.  Visitors are 15-2-1 ATS in Oakland and the Raiders as a home favorite are 10-24-1. Indy is 4-1 straight up against Oak and they’re getting 3. Shockingly, the Colts still are in the playoff race so this game means something for them.  And surprise, I like the over too. The Indy defense is trash and we know the Oak defense can be suspect. I loved Oak over last week but those assholes fumbled twice in the red zone as well as had to settle for a FG when they were first and goal on the 1. How about cold, hard facts? Indy has hit the over in 6/7 road games. Oak has hit over in 6/7 home games. overwhelming evidence like that has me plunking down cash on both.

Indy plus 3.5 and over 53

The Ravens let the Eagles score 9 points in 10 minutes last week to screw that bet. Then Doug Pederson in his infinite wisdom cuts it to 1 with a TD with :04 left and then goes for 2?  UGHH.  At least I could’ve had a shot in OT.  People shit on Eli for coughing up the ball but Flacco isn’t far behind; if not equal, in this department.  A fumble and pick in 2 different trips in the red zone sure didn’t help last week.  The line is Pitt -5 and that’s just way too high for them. No gut call here, 11/15 of their games have ended in 3 points or less.  Pitt is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 but this train stops cold here. 

Take the silly purple uniforms plus the 5.

The Bears are on fire and Matt Barkley is proving me wrong every week. Bears are 5-0 ats in their last 5 and in comes in Washington off a short week and a complete beating administered by the Carolina Panthers. Bears getting 3 at home after nearly upsetting GB? Why not?

I’m going with the Bears +3

Tampa covered for me last sun night against Dallas. In fact, they almost won. They beat the Saints 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Hence why everyone loved them this week, which scares the hell out of me.  I hate being on the public’s side and I think Saints can win -3 but not confident enough to take them. But here’s another stat: 11/13 of the games between the have resulted in an under. And it’s high this week, 52.

I’m taking the under Tampa 52, yet again.

Didn’t think I would be wagering on these idiots again this season but the time is right. The Rams are home against the Niners and Jeff Fisher is no longer the coach to screw things up with that 80’s porn mustache. The Niners are trash and the Rams came close to knocking off the Seahawks last Thursday. Nine days to prep for a team that hasn’t won since…beating the Rams week 1. I’m inclined to take the Rams -4 but here’s a few more numbers for you: Rams at home have hit the under 6/8 and 5/6 times vs the Niners.

For sure, taking the Under 40 and maybe Rams -4

Seattle has been off for 9 days as well and they’re up against an AZ d that got scorched in New Orleans. Sea on a 2nd straight home game is 22-7 and they’re also 19-4-1 ATS in Dec. the line is 8 and Carson Palmer can poop it up like no other. Here’s another fun fact: az is over 5/5 and 5/5 over on the road.

Probably taking Sea -8 and maybe over 43

Carolina on a short week and when Car and ATL play, 6/7 times are on the under when both teams play.  

I’m going with the under 51.

Packers are 13-1-1 against the spread at home and the Vikings are limping in and without Adrian Peterson.  

I’m taking Green Bay -7

And now, it’s time for my Stone Cold Lock of the Week.  (That’s a big lock)

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A lot of people are liking Miami in buffalo. Do I trust Matt Moore on the road? He destroyed the Jets last week, BFD. I have Landry in my fantasy championship so I hope he does it again. Let’s see him do this for 2 weeks straight. LeSean McCoy has been crushing run defenses like I was crushing puss a single dude. Those were the days, sigh. BUT let’s talk over/under. Buffalo has hit the over in 5 straight home games. Buffalo has hit the over in 9/10 games. And Miami has went over in 7/8. Those numbers are good enough for me.

Take Mia over 42

 

 

Review of Star Wars: Rogue One (No spoilers)

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As I have said before, I like to see the schedule of films coming out and I’ll circle the ones I highly anticipate.  Usually, there about 4 per year that I get excited for and this was one of them.  However, being that Rogue 1 isn’t part of the original story, I was a little less excited for this as I was for Episode 7 last year.  Spinoff of the original tend to suck (Scorpion King, This is 40, X-Men Wolverine films are awful, and those god awful American Pie straight to DVD films) so I was slightly hesitant.  I also read that this is the first Star Wars film that John Williams wasn’t doing the score for.  John Williams is as integral to these films (Indiana Jones, Star Wars, Jaws, the list goes on) as pepperoni is to pizza.

The story takes place after Episode 3, Revenge of the Sith, when Hayden Christiansen thankfully slides into the lava after Obi-Wan slices his legs off.  I wish Obi-Wan used the force to give Hayden better acting lessons.  Felicity Jones plays Jyn Erso, whose father (Madds Mikelsen) was the architect behind the Death Star.  Young Jyn is hidden for years by Saw Gerrara (Forrest Whittaker) as the Imperials have been looking for her to ensure her father’s cooperation in the completion of the Death Star.  Jyn is freed by the Rebellion and thus begins her mission to steal the plans for the Death Star.

The new characters are instantly likable and you feel something for them all.  K2SO is the robot who embraces the newest comedic role. You’ll see a bunch of familiar faces from previous films, even some restored by CGI as their younger selves from Star Wars.  Some characters may take you a second to recall but when you do, a smile will cross your face.  And of course, Darth Vader makes several appearances in the film.  And without spoiling anything, his final scene is bad-assery at its finest. One of my complaints are they take you to several planets/moons all over the galaxy but you won’t need to remember them later on. I wish they showed you the Emperor in some capacity but no luck.  This film flows beautifully while weaving a fantastic tale.  It’s almost sad as we know the fate for most of these characters being that we’ve seen the 7 previous films.  Director Gareth Edwards ensures it ends with a flawless segue for Star Wars, Episode 4.

People ask me how I rank this amongst the other films but I really need to see this again to take it in.  I’m still processing everything but rest assured, it’s damn good.  If I were to give an early ranking, I put it after Empire and before 7.  Here’s the way I rank them as of now.  4, 6, 5, 3.5, 7, 3 (really good, people just hate the shit out of the 2nd trilogy), 2 (the last 1/3 is really good), 1 (an egregious piece of shit).

Film reviews: “Arrival”, “Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates”, and “Jason Bourne”

The main 2 rules of gambling are: 1) Go with your gut and 2) Don’t be a hero, just win money. 

arrivalposterToday’s reviews are going to focus on rule 1.  When I saw the preview for “Arrival,” I said aloud, “Who gives a shit?  This is Jodie Foster’s Contact 2.0.”  And the reviews started to come in: Rotten Tomatoes loved it, some of my friends loved it, Amy Adams is going to win the Academy Award….you get the idea.  I figured since I was wrong about “Dr. Strange,” I decided to give it a go.  

So I did give it a shot.  I even saw it in the theater as other reviewers said you MUST see it in its purest form.  Amy Adams plays a master linguist who is called to service and communicate when alien spaceships land in many different countries.  Forest Whittaker and his lazy eye play an Army officer who recruits her for the position.  Tiny Jeremy Renner plays a scientist that goes with Adams to facilitate the communication betweens the aliens and Adams. And director Denis Villeneuve (did Sicario and LOVED it) is at the helm.

This film is better than Contact was but I have to admit, I was underwhelmed.  The ending was different than expected but not enough for me to pull a 180 on this film.  Just like Seinfeld, a lot of people found this to be fantastic and I’m just not with it.  You’ve seen the same plot before: aliens land on Earth, humans attempt to make contact, humans make headway, another nation wants to attack the aliens because they don’t want to wait for first strike, conflict arises, will the aliens destroy humanity or do we take them out first?

This film is alright, save your 15 bucks and watch at home.  6/10

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Trivia question: What do you a comedy that isn’t funny?  Answer: a Wes Anderson film.  BOOM!  Taking no prisoners, that’s for goddamn sure!  “Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates” is loosely based on the true story of 2 brothers who were told by their parents to bring wedding dates to their sister’s wedding in Hawaii after countless family gathering were ruined by the boys.  Zac Efron stars as one of the brothers who needs to make sure his shirt is off in at least 73% of the scene.  Anna Kendrick co-stars as a scorned bride who was left at the alter who makes it her life’s work to get on that free trip to Hawaii.  I did notice Stephanie Faracy (the mom in Great Outdoors) plays the boys’ mom and between plastic surgery and aging, Father Time has given her a vicious right uppercut to her work calendar.

When this preview came out, I said, “This COULD be that summer R-rated comedy of the year.”  And I wasn’t enamored by the preview and the reviews were as kind as a 24″ inch waist is to Rebel Wilson.  So, I watched it for free with the free (cable company which doesn’t sponsor me) points I’ve accrued.  You know a film is bad when you turn it off after 45 minutes AND YOU GOT IT FOR FREE.  I think I semi-chuckled twice, which is double the times I laughed at “Napoleon Dynamite” or any other Jack Black comedy.  Nothing gets me like a solid R-rated comedy but when the punchlines are softer than any Drake song, you lost me.  This film is dogshit and I was SHOCKED that it actually turned a profit. Anna Kendrick has a weird face and it’s funny to see her attempting to be sexy.  She’s perfect as Clooney’s protege in, “Up in the Air” and from what I saw while changing the channel, good in those, “Pitch Perfect” films.  Raunchy comedy, not her bag.  

I’d rather watch teens play in a video game tournament that finish watching this film.  2/10

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The first Jason Bourne film, solid.  The second, not so much.  The third, fantastic rebound and my favorite of the trilogy.  So when I read that Paul Greengrass (director of the 1st and 3rd films) was coming back to do the 4th Bourne and this time, I penciled this in to see in the theater.  Matt Damon reprises his title role, and we can wipe our memory banks clean of Jeremy Renner?  Cool, I’m in.  What scenes do you see over and over in the preview?  Damon dropping a dude with one punch and then yet another insane chase scene, this time on the Vegas strip.  Again, I’m in.

And then the reviews came in: nothing positive and pretty much all of them saying this was a hybrid of all 3 Damon films with no real original aspects of it.  So I didn’t see this in the theater as most of my friends confirmed these reviews.  I was going to see this and Suicide Squad in the same day and I’m glad I laid this hand down.  It’s the same recipe as all of the other films.  Hell, I think I can direct the next Bourne film.  Have an older white guy in a communications room, barking out orders to SWAT teams who are trying to locate Bourne for about 60% of the film.  The next 30% would be chase scenes mixed with a few hand-hand combat scenes.  The last 10% would be him trying yet again, to unearth even more backstory about how and why he was recruited to be an assassin. Give me 5 million bucks and the catalog rights to Moby’s, “Extreme Ways” so I can do the 234235th remix of that song and I’ll see you next summer with a 2 hour film that hopefully makes its money back.  

I again, used points from (cable company not paying to advertise with me) and didn’t pay a dollar for this film.  I wasn’t thrilled at all but hey, at least I made it all the way, unlike “Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates.” The Vegas chase scene does carry on a little too long.  The plot is murky and we’re again trying to figure out his character’s as well as his dad’s history with the Treadstone.  You end up not caring about this story about 20 minutes it.  “Bourne Ultimatum” did a fantastic job of wrapping up loose ends and answering all questions.  Greengrass should’ve ended on that high note cause this note cracks and falls flat. 

I’d rather watch all of the trailers for Rogue 1 (review next week) on an endless loop than watch this again.  4.5/10

Star Wars Episode 7

I loved it.  JJ Abrams did a great job with the story.  Yes, there are some shoutouts to the earlier films with characters or props.  SPOILER ALERT: 95% of the audience in the theater didn’t use deodorant; it smelled like a Syrian refugee camp in there.  Nerds, save your money on just 1 action figure and buy a couple Speed Sticks.

I smelled a couple of the angles right out but still found it enjoyable.  I also had a bunch of questions, one of them being how is Carrie Fisher’s voice deeper than mine?  I understand she probably downed a quart of Bombay a day since ’83 but Jesus Christ, she sounds like 85 year old truck driver with emphysema.

Here’s how I rank the 7:

Star Wars, Jedi, Empire, Force Awakens, Revenge of the Sith, Attack of the Clones, and the biggest piece of shit to grace the screen, the Phantom Menace.

Here’s my impression if Hayden Christiansen called JJ Abrams, asking him for a part in the new film.

Hayden: JJ, it’s Hayden, what’s up?

JJ: Who?

Hayden: Hayden Christiansen, you know…I played Anakin in the prequel trilogy

JJ: Ummm…Right…what can I do for you?

Hayden: Well, I was wondering if there was any role for me in the new film you’re directing.

JJ: Sure, we can always use an intern or some help on craft services.

Hayden: I was thinking more of an on-camera role, maybe a flashback scene with Vader or earlier memory of Anakin.

JJ: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAH!!

Hayden: You don’t need to be mean.

JJ: Awww, come on, this isn’t Hayden.  Did Harrison put you up to this?  Man, that old goat has a sense of humor; despite being married to that bulimic wife of his.

Hayden: No, Harrison didn’t put me up to this.  I’m serious, would you have a part.

JJ: (Shouting to no one) JJ, Alec Guiness is the other line. Hayden, I gotta take this call from Alec Guiness.

Hayden: JJ, he’s been dead for over 30 years.

JJ: He’s calling collect, gotta go.  Good luck in Jumper 2.

 

My rating, I’d give it a 7.5 out of 10.  I’m dying for the next film and thankfully, it’s only another year and a half to episode 8.