Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

Week 14 NFL Picks ATS

“Kevin, where’s Reagan?”  “Kevin, is Reagan coming back this week?”  Hey, did you see I went 5-3 last week?  “Yeah but we want to see Reagan eat her cookie.”  That was all I heard!  You guys would rather see my daughter and I make cutesy-poo faces (it’s adorable) than hear my winning picks and capitalize on free money this Christmas?  No wonder school test scores are down and Madea films continue to make money.  Good news, you’re seeing her today as she’s feeling completely better and eating cookies faster than Roy Moore eats 15 year old asses.  We’re already off to a fast start as I took Atlanta on Thursday night so that puts me in the “nice” column to start week 14.

The Tennessee Titans are insanely overrated.  If you had them last week -7, you absolutely stole one for the books as Derrick Henry broke a run for a late TD that was just meant to kill the clock and cover.  Now, they go to Arizona where as a home dog, they’re 24-13.  AZ isn’t playing for anything but the way they’re going about business, you would think otherwise.  Tenn on the road is awful, 1-4 ATS.  AZ vs Tenn is 4-1.  

Fly with the Cards at the free +2.5 points

Cincinatti played Pittsburgh on Monday night in a game that was uglier than watching Rebel Wilson eating.  Cincy 4-0 ATS and 13-5 vs teams with losing records.  The Bears are just goddamn awful and John Fox is 4 weeks away from a pink slip and shitty gold watch.  The Bears are recently 1-3-1 and 4-9 on the road.  They’re not going to get motivated playing for a lame duck coach.  Vontaze Burfict is out for Cincy but I don’t care.  I see them taking out their anger from shitting the bed on Monday on the lifeless Bears.

The Bengals eat the Bears like a tourist who jumped into their cage at the zoo, -6.5

Kansas City is back home after failing to put the dagger in the Jets.  Oakland comes in after unconvincingly beating the Geno Smith led Giants.  KC has the under hit 12/17 at home, 7/9 vs Oak, 17/25 vs Oak, and Oakland is 6/9 with the under on the road.  And with all of that, I’m taking the over today.  WHAT??  You just gave 13 stats saying under!  Well, Andy Reid isn’t calling the plays and the new guy took the reins off Alex Smith and then against the Jets, they threw smoke all over the place.  They have nice weather in KC today so no crazy winds.  The Oakland defense is trash AND they’re getting Crabtree back.  We all know how bad the Chiefs D is.  And the last time these teams played, they combined for over 60.  

Take the over 48 with confidence.

Carolina is home against the Vikings after going to NO and getting a spanking (just like I said.)  Fun facts: Carolina is 9-2 and has 7 wins as a home dog, also recently 4-1 ATS and SU.  This is the 3rd straight game for Minnesota and something’s got to give.  I think this is the week they finally lose one.  Khalil and Olsen are probable for Carolina as well.  I know Carolina is an unimpressive 2-3-1 at home but I think they bounce back after a loss and Minnesota can afford a loss; especially coming to the tail end of a road trip.  

Take Cam and the boys +2.5

Miami is getting a bushel of points, 11, home against the Patriots.  I know, betting against the Patriots is suicide 9/10 times.  Yes, I know the Pats are 12-0 in November or later.  Here’s why I like Miami: Pats are 1-3-1 in Miami and no Gronk.  I think the Pats run the ball and kill the clock.  I also think the Pats may get caught looking forward to Pittsburgh next week.  11 is the perfect number to backdoor with.  

Dolphins and the +11 sounds like a plan to me.

The lock of the week is a no-brainer.  I’m talking a no-brainer on the scale of the scale of, “Do I eat steak or do I fuck Lena Dunham?”  The Philadelphia Eagles were brought back to Earth last week in Seattle.  They stayed on the West Coast this week to practice and keep their body clocks right.  The Rams players are dealing with the fires ravaging their lands like hipsters ravaging their parents’ dreams of not being sniveling pussies.  This is going to be the game of the day but I think Philly answers back for being held down in Seattle.  And I promise you, those dirt merchant Eagles fans will take over the stadium where they have an AVERAGE home field situation. 

Eagles as a pick em on the road.

Week 17 NFL Picks ATS

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Rough week last week, worst since week 2 but let’s bounce back in a big way.  Sorry for the delay but most of these games are going on now with a few 4pm games.  Tough week for picks because of most of the playoff seeds are determined so more over/unders

I took the Colts -4.5 against Jax and as of now, not looking good against the Jags.  They’re currently down, 17-0.  I figured that Jax got their win out of the way last week with a new coach, Indy’s at home, let’s roll the dice.  Public kicked that line up to 6 by kickoff.

Also locked in the Pats/Miami over 46.  Pats are all over them with a few minutes left in the first half, 20-0 so that over looks to be relatively on track so far.

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My lock of the week is Cle/Pitt under 42.  Pitt is resting everyone and Cle can barely score with all of the 1’s out there.  That score is 14-0 with a few minutes left in the half so I feel confident with that one.  

The Saints are in Atl and Atl is still fighting for a 1st rd bye.  The o/u is 56.5 which is insanely high.  I grabbed the Saints +7.5 because they can definitely match scores with the Falcons and I think the extra .5 will help.

Lastly, I took the KC/SD under 44.5.  Chiefs might have spend their load last week in that offensive outburst last week against Den.  The last 4/5 games played by SD were unders and the last 4/5 games that SD played KC were also unders.  Good enough for me.

 

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

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This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

Ten Commandments of Wearing Jerseys to Sporting Events

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My father was NOT into sports AT ALL.  He could give 2 shits about who wins the World Series, Superbowl, but he always had a financial rooting interest in the Bud Bowls.  My brother and I got into sports and once a year, my father would take us to a Yanks or Mets game.  We would alternate years where we would go to the scary Bronx or Chop Shop Central Queens.  I’m the ardent Yanks fan and my brother was a closeted homosexual Mets Fan.  We would have a “man day” where my dad would get some solid field level seats and then we would eat garbage food that was 5 times the value of the tickets.  Thankfully, our metabolisms could’ve been bottled and sold to aspiring models/singers and we would’ve been multimillionaires.  Instead, I’m writing a dopey blog on a Saturday afternoon while my 1 year old daughter takes a nap.  I’m hoping I finish this article AND can squeeze in a trip to the gym before she wakes.  Hello time management, goodbye reckless boozing and womanizing.  Unless you have a shitload of money and pay off your wife with gaudy shopping trips to look the other way while you philander; welcome to married life, boys!

 

I still enjoy going to games for the camaraderie, catching up with buddies over a few cocktails, and watching the games from different angles.  But after going to many games over the years, I’m mystified that some people just don’t have any proper jersey decorum.  Like I said before, my dad doesn’t give a shit about sports but somehow, I learned through life what is the proper attire and how to wear it at the games.  So don’t blame this on being having a single mother in your household.  And if you are “that guy,” pay for your buddy to get an uber so he can come over and slap you repeatedly in the face.  Yes, I get it.  This is a first world problem and people who aren’t into sports could give 2 shits.  But god forbid if you don’t remember what Rachel from Friends favorite color is.

  1. Thou shall not be the douchebag who insists on wearing a full uniform of a team that isn’t even playing at the game you’re attending.  You want to wear your team’s hat so you can rep your team, fine.  But to wear head to toe apparel like you think you’re playing left field and batting 5th?  I was at a Yankees/A’s game and 4 dildos from Philly are wearing head to toe Philthies gear.  I asked them why are they wearing Salvation Army clothing to a Yankees game.  They said, “We have to represent our team.”  I told them that their awful Philly accents represents them just fine.  You’re a clown and just there to stir up a shit storm.  You fully deserve it when you get pelted with synthetic nacho cheese, leftover garlic fries, and a lukewarm $12 Budweiser.  
  2. Thou shall not be the cheap fuck who wears an obvious sponsored giveaway jersey to multiple games.  If you’re coming from the office and want to throw on a shirt they give you which has Stop N Shop logos plastered all over it like it was a NASCAR race, fine.  But to wear that to every game?  Pony up the $100 bucks for a decent replica and fit in with everyone.  Otherwise, you’ll be subjected to people like me yelling, “Hey Stop n Shop, cleanup in aisle 8!”
  3. Thou shall not be the relatively cheap fuck who wears a player’s jersey who turned out to be an absolute abortion.  The turnaround time to get rid of that jersey is 3 years.  I have a buddy who still wore his Kevin Boss (mediocre TE for the NY Giants) for YEARS after he retired/forced out/blows his brains out under an overpass in 15 years from CTE.  Look, I had a Jason Sehorn jersey (white CB for the Giants that A) was awesome till he blew his knee out returning a kickoff in a fucking preseason game and B) married that piece of ass, Angie Harmon) but I got rid of it when he was chasing wide receivers and his pants were falling to his ankles.  I smartly jumped on the Eli Manning bandwagon the second he got drafted.  Figured I’d go all in on the eventual franchise QB.  And if you have guys who obviously were hall of famers or solid contributors, by all means keep wearing them.   But if you buy someone that’s a rookie that didn’t pan out or a free agent that did his best work on another team and came to your team as a last resort (Jerry Rice on the Raiders, Ray Borque on the Avalanche), cut that shit out.
  4. Thou shall not be the, “My wife/kids bought this jersey for me” guy.  I’m talking about people who put #1 Dad or your last name on the back of their jerseys.  No, you’re not the number 1 dad in the world.  That’s because that title is held by Ferris Bueller’s dad.  Checked on his kid while he was sick, bought him a computer and his sister a car, and came home at 6 sharp as promised.  And if your wife or kids really knew and loved you, they would know that makes you look stupid and they would put your favorite player on the back of the jersey.  If my daughter wanted to get me a second Yankees jersey, my wife would tell her that it’s going to be a Jeter or Mariano, Not #1 Daddy.  Or putting your own name on the back of that jersey.  This isn’t t-ball, you child.  You didn’t play a down or throw a single pitch in the majors.  What you’ve done is given everyone within a 3 section radius to fuck with you for the ENTIRE game. Do you really want to hear, “Hey Sanderson, your sister had corn last night for dinner!  Just thought you should know!” Cut that shit out.
  5. Thou shall not be a Yankee fan that wears a jersey with a players name on the back.  We’re the only one that doesn’t do names on the back in the name of tradition.  Again, spend the extra bucks and get a real jersey.  You look dopey, cut that shit out.
  6. Thou shall stop it with the gimmick jerseys.  These teams milk the shit out of us as it is.  You’re going to get a camouflage home jersey because it’s the newest and you have to get it? You look like a child soldier in Sierra Leone with that jersey and those jean shorts.  Those awful neon colored jersey?  This isn’t Miami circa 1984, cut that shit out. 
  7. Thall shall stop it with the film character names on the back of jerseys.  I’m talking to you Costanza on the back of a Yankees jersey, Hansen on a Chiefs jersey, or Griswold on the back of a Blackhawks jersey.  We get it, you’re a Seinfeld, Slap Shot,  or a Vacation fan.  That’s not even a deep cut reference that can really be appreciated.  willie beamen. Now that’s at least a little off the beaten path.
  8. Thou shall not be the dickbag that wears a hat or jersey and when asked about said clothing, “Oh, I’m not a fan of the team, I just like the colors.”  Aww, how cute Ralph Lauren.  You’re making sure you’re avoiding the fashion police at a ball game.  This is the one place no one is judging people’s style.  Hell, the Eagles fans made Zubazz pants popular in that city inhabited by mouth breathers.  You don’t need to be on the cover of GQ while you eat a dirty water hot dog and suck down a $12 bud light.  Both of which I don’t consume because they’re gross. I eat before I go to the game because I refuse to pay top dollar for bottom feeding food.
  9. Thou shall not be a cheap bastard that takes masking tape and writes a current players name on the jersey of a shitty player with the same number.  
  10. And finally, thou shall not be that guy that tucks his jersey into his pants.  Hey Steve Urkel, let loose.  You’re at a game, not a board meeting, so relax.

When Kevin isn’t belittling someone for breaking one of these social mores, he’s playing with his daughter, telling jokes in NYC (Book him at Kgootee23@gmail.com), or working on his show: Comics Watching Comics (www.comicswatchingcomics.com)