NFL Conference championship betting week ATS 1/30/22

Much like Amy Schneider, my winning streak is over but a lot less rich than she is. But I’m still better looking so I have that going for me..which is nice. The goddamn Packers fucked me royally and I went 1-5 on Saturday but 3-0 on Sunday, bringing my total for the playoffs at 14-9 (61%) and my total for the year to 113-92-1 (55%), very much still in the black. So next time you see me and I ever say, “I’m thinking about betting on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, pour bleach down my urethra and kick me in the taint as hard as possible. Let’s start out with some fun facts about conference championship weekend:

Home teams are 13-3 outright and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons (since 2013). Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons (4-0 previous 2 seasons).

This is shouldn’t be close but let’s show you how and why: Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, all as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when favored by at least four points. Mahomes is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019. Teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore. Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. He is 31-14 ATS when the total is lower. KC has gone over 5/5. Satisfied? Now something nice to say about the Bengals. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and has covered six straight games and four straight road games. And that’s it. Like Hulkamania and your mom’s house, 80k will be there this sunday and I can’t see Joe Burrow keeping this close but why gamble when gambling. Oh yeah, one more stat. Kansas City has covered six straight home games and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.

KC to win the Superbowl +125

Chiefs -.5/over 47.5

  • We all know San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those six games. SF has won twice this season and we all know what happens, see the 2006 NY Giants against Dallas as a fun and friendly reminder. Yes, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 outright and ATS against Sean McVay. So let’s pile up the data: Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 straight up as a betting underdog. That is the best straight up mark by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a road underdog. San Francisco is playing on the road for the fourth consecutive week. In the last 35 seasons, teams playing at least four straight games on the road are 2-7 straight up and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS). The last team to win four straight games, all on the road was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye in between since 1961. All that being said, I’m going for the middle. I think the Rams win and cover but I also think they don’t blow them out. This can easily be 24-20, 20-16. Niners are under 6/7 of late and 4/6 under against the Rams. Rams are 5/6 under at home as well. I went light on the Rams and more with the teaser. Also went under and Akers under rushing yds because he’s a fumbling machine of late, there will be a short leash on him, especially if he coughs it up early. He hasn’t topped 55 rushing yds in any playoff game and Michel doesn’t fumble.
  • Rams -3, Niners 1h +3, Akers under rushing yds 59.5, Niners +10.5/Chiefs pick em, Rams under 45.5

Division playoffs NFL weekend against the spread 1/22/21

I’d love to start tooting the horn after yet another winning weekend (9-4 last weekend, 109-87-1 for the season 55.6% for the year) but I’ll do that when I’m in the Cayman islands in less than a month.

We all know the BBQ walrus is amazing after a bye but did you know Mike Vrabel is pretty damn special as well: 8-0 ATS and SU, 29.6 PPG, opp PPG is 18.7! Since 2018, teams coming off a playoff bye are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Titans lost just one game at home this year, 6-3 ATS. Now we know Cincy is on fire of late, 5-0 ATS and 6-1 ATS on the road. Cincy went 2/5 in the red zone against the Raiders last week who sports one of the worst red zone defenses. The Bengals are banged up on defense while the Titans get everyone back on offense except Eddie George cause he’s long retired. I don’t believe the Bengals shaky o-line will travel well and to quote Mike Francesa, “Let’s be honest, ok? I think the Bengals blew their karmic load last week at home and squeaked by the Raiders, ok? Here’s da Mink Man, back aft dis.” Also, Bengals have gone under 4/6 of late and the Titans have gone 4/5 under. However, when the 2 link up, they’ve gone over 7/8 when Tenn is home against Cincy. This isn’t a high total, pretty middle of the road. I think Tenn comes out fast and may get a Burrow TO deep in his own zone, they can pull the over out.

Tenn over 47 and Tenn -4

I ALMOST wanted Dallas to come back and win the game (Niners would’ve covered the 3.5) but I would’ve lost the parlay I didn’t post. Why? So I could’ve bet my kid’s college (community) and all savings on the Packers to curb stomp and then skewer their taints in Lambeau. The Niners have had their 6th road game in 9 weeks. Fred Warner and Bosa are in but obviously, they’re banged up along with Jimmy G’s sprained shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts. That’s pretty solid but I say it’s Aaron Rodgers time now. Also, Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points. GB starts out fast, like a newly single girl out on Valentine’s Day night. GB 6/7 over of late and 4/5 over against the Niners. 47 is on the low end as I think this game easily ends up 28-20.

GB -3.5

Teaser: GB down to pick em with Buff +2.5

Deebo Samuel over 54.5 receiving

GB/Tenn ml parlay

GB over 47

I’m starting out by saying Matt Stafford on the road definitely sends shivers up my butthole. But hell, the Bucs o line is messier than a porta potty after a Menudo concert. Why Menudo? Cause no one else brings them up anymore and that’s my brother in law’s nickname. Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season. Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018. Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). Rams are 6-1 SU of late, 5-2 ATS 7-1 SU of late. They have great numbers against the Bucs but those are all without Brady except this year’s loss. Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay). Brady is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. If not now, when, for McVay? Bucs are playing with house money after winning last year and being banged up. I know TB are monsters at home, 11-1 SU. They may win but I think it’s by a FG or less.

Rams +3

Probably the best game of the weekend is the Bills game. Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. Bills have won 5 straight by an average of 18 points and wow, 4-0-1 ATS of late. Chiefs are also rolling of late, 5-0 ATS at home, and we know how great Reid is off the bye. I love how the Bills always come out fast and the Chiefs are slow starters, hence the 1q bet of the Bills +1. But I think this is going to be close at the end and if the Bills lose, it won’t be by more than a TD.

Bills +1 1q

GB teaser pick em/Bills +8.5

NFL Wild Card weekend 1/15/22 against the spread bets

Finished the season on a high, 7-5 and 5 straight winning weeks brings me to a total of 100-83-1 to 54.6% for the year, over the break even number of 52.5%. Cross those fingers as we hopefully walk up to CASH THOSE TICKETS

Tonight’s picks:

Cincy 1h under 24.5 and Cincy under 48.5

Vegas has gone under 4/6 of late and playing 5 quarters on a short week doesn’t help. Cincy has gone under 7/10 against the AFC west. A second year head coach and an interim head coach are going to come out conservative. Banged up Burrow also gives minor concern. I see a lot of running for both teams and can the ferocious pass rush of the Raiders be neutralized by the Bengals? Before last year’s expanded bracket, the under was 15-0-1 in #3 vs #6 matchups. Under is 26-11-1, 12-6 of late.

Pats first half under 22.5

Pats have gone under 4/5 on the road.Bills have gone under 7/10 in January. It’s going to be ZERO degrees tonight. Mac Jones grew up in FL and played in Bama, never in zero degrees so this will be interesting to see. On the flip side, Josh Allen has played 4 games below freezing and hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yds or achieved 56% completion rate in that weather. I gotta imagine Pats have the #1 defense on 3rd and 4th down while the Bills have the top run defense.

You know how many teams the Eagles beat that were over .500 this year? ONE, the Saints. And now they’re in TB, against the top run defense and all Philly does is run. Bucs are 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. Home favorite of a TD or more are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS. And if you think Tom Brady forgot how the Eagles beat him in a Superbowl, you’re sorely mistaken. I know there’s no Fournette but they have JPP and Shaq Barrett back on defense. At the same time, I’m not keen on laying 8.5 so I teased this game

Edit: Added Bills 2H +.5

First half of teaser: Tampa -2.5 Also Philly team total under 17.5, Gronk +115 to catch an anytime TD and Brate +440 to catch an anytime TD

Continuing on the theme of heavy favorites (no, not talking about your mom), I think the same number of scenarios where the Avengers said they beat Thanos is the same number that the Steelers have in KC. Ben looked worse than a kid with polio trying to dunk a basketball in a regulation sized hoop. Steelers got triple penetrated the first time they played and I know Tomlin as an underdog is fantastic but this KC freight train SHOULD barrel through the Steelers. Home favorites by 10 or more are 5-0 (See TB as well) KC 6-0 SU at home, 9-1 SU and 6-2 ATS of late. I’m pretty sure people don’t make money when they’re laying 12.5 in the NFL so let’s finish up the teaser.

Second half of teaser: Chiefs -6.5 and also Chiefs 1H -7

Road teams are 14-4 ATS and 15-3 SU. Dogs are 12-4-1 ATS in NFC wild card games and dogs in the past 4 seasons are 15-3. Here’s the big bullet, home favorites since 03 that are laying 7 or fewer are 14-28-1. Know where I’m going with this? SF is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Here’s the big factor, Niners are 7-3 SU on the road. I always talk about platinum Golden Corral member, Mike McCarthy, can fuck up boiling water. Dallas has beaten how many teams over .500? TWO. Chargers and the Pats. Not exactly bursting with confidence to take Dallas, are you? And guess who fired in at the right time? Me. And I’m willing to bet if you wait till kickoff, you can also get

Niners +3.5 and Niners team total over 23.5

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

NFL week 1 and season total bets

Here we go! Week 1 and what seems like an eternity of waiting to get hands on that sweet, sweet, FREEEEEE MONEY. Hope you loaded up on the Bucs money line like I told you to as well as the other props that hit. Vegas for me and the boys this weekend so you’re getting lines that I locked in on weeks ago. Heavy, medium, and light describe how much I put on them.

Over/unders

Giants over 7 (heavy)

They won 6 last year with no weapons on offense. They have an extra game this year and added Golladay, Rudolph, and get Barkley back. Yeah, I think despite a dogshit offense line they can muster up another win or 2 in this awful division. Speaking of…

Giants to win NFC east +450 ( light)

No team in that division scares me. At all. Fitzpatrick gags it up as much as he pulls it out of his ass. And he’s 38 to boot; even a Harvard guy hasn’t figured out time travel and make himself younger. Dak is fresh off a surgery and with shoulder issues and McCarthy couldn’t coach a kid out of his mother’s uterus. And Philly is trash like its fans. Why not take a flier for a little and hope 7 or 8 wins for the Gmen cashes a playoff ticket too?

Cowboys under 9.5 (moderate)

For all the reasons I gave why I don’t have respect for Dallas. Did you watch Hard Knocks? I’d rather follow a blind man crossing the NJ Turnpike than follow McCarthy’s leadership.

Saints under 9 (moderate)

Hurricane keeps the Saints out of New Orleans and gives that town a bidet rinse. And do you trust Jameis Winston for a season? I do not. That defense is nothing special and btw, Michael Thomas is out for 2 months and not a happy camper. Also…

Saints to miss the playoffs (moderate)

For the exact reasons I gave above

Jaguars under 6.5 (moderate)

What part of that team do you trust? Are you going to put your trust on Lawrence? Maybe a little but that defense and that division is trouble. Jags won 2 games last year and now they have to win 5 more to bust this bet? That’s like a dude who goes from 300 pounds to 250 and thinks he’s ready to start dating mediocre 3rd grade teachers in Miami. Slow down, junior.

Tampa Bay to win division -240 (heavy)

Titans to win division -110 (moderate)

Weak division and the only real competition is coming from Indianapolis. In case you missed it, Carson Wentz had foot surgery and looked like a mess in Philly. Maybe he regains some of his mojo but not a ton of offense outside of Taylor. Or maybe he kills himself because he has to live in Indianapolis.

Colts under 9 (moderate)

For all of the reasons I gave above, especially about having to live in Indianapolis.

Maholmes MVP +500 (moderate)

Best player in football at his position and after a tough Super Bowl loss, he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Any not named Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen really doesn’t scare me. But you know who does scare me? Michael Clarke Duncan. He’s dead? Never mind, I think I can take what’s left of his corpse.

Week 1 bets!

Dallas is 5-11 ATS of late and 2-9 SU on the road. Tampa 8-0 SU of late, 4-1 ATS at home. Yeah, I know this is week 1 so let’s make this easy: I teased the Bucs to -1 in one teaser, -2 in another teaser, and made them part of 2 money line parlays. This game went to 9.5 a couple of hrs before kickoff, insane when it opened 6.5

Tampa -1 in a teaser (heavy)

The second half of my first teaser is Tennessee over teased down to 45. The Titans defense is more gaping than Hope Solo’s photo shoot (go google that “masterpiece”) But they also put up points too and Arizona is no slouch…themselves. Some stats that may deflate my argument are Arizona is 5/7 of late 6/6 under on the road and 11/13 under in September. But the Titans were 7/9 over and 11/15 over at home as well as 6/7 over vs NFC. Both of those teams can moonwalk to 45.

2nd half of teaser Tenn over 45 (heavy)

The Rams take on that ginger freak turnover machine, Andy Dalton at home. That’s really all you need to know. Bears are 5-13 SU at LA and the Rams start off HOT, 8-2-1 ATS. I made this part of a teaser as I don’t feel like laying 7.5

First half of teaser Rams -1.5

Second half of teaser Bucs -2

Three way money line parlay: Bucs, Rams, and Niners

Going to take:

Vikings are over 8/11, 7/9 vs AFC, and 6/8 against AFC north of late. Burrow has weapons and is healthy. Should have some easy scoring in this game

Minn over 47.5

Niners are playing Detroit and this is going to be a beatdown. Goff is now in Detroit and boy, he must have been caught with the Rams’s owner daughter knee deep on the 50 yd line to get shipped out of LA. Det 1-11 SU at home, 1-6 SU of late, 2-4 ATS home against SF. Also 2-4 ATS in week 1. I think the Niners eat them alive but let’s take it down with a 7 pt teaser.

Niners teaser to -.5 (moderate)

Giants are 4-2 SU at home against Den but 3-7 ATS and 3-12 SU in September. Denver is starting Bridgewater and are we going lose to him. Goddamn, I’ll be shocked if they lose by 10.

Giants +10 2nd half of teaser (moderate)

Another 3 way money line parlay

GB, KC, and Sea.

Reid is 16-0 SU in September and Cle is 1-5 SU against KC. And KC didn’t cover games, they just won outright: 1-9-1 of late but 12-2 SU and 15-2 SU at home. Enough said. Seattle has 8-1 SU in September, 4-1 SU in last 5. I don’t trust Wentz who was supposed to miss 2-3 months and Quinton Nelson is out. Colts are 0-7 SU in week 1. I can’t trust Winston and now they have to play at least 2 road games? Aaron Rodgers on his “Last Dance” tour is going to torch everyone in his path until it’s time to play the NFC championship game at home in which he stinks. Yeah, I had money on him AGAIN last year on them. God, I hope Shaliee Woodley bangs his brother on Aaron’s couch…

Pitt under 48.5

Pitt under 14/20 on the road and under 5/6 vs Buffalo. Ben can’t get into a shooting match with Josh Allen so they’re going to run the ball against an average Buff defense.

NFL Week 17 against the spread picks

Last week was a complete shitshow and probably the worst week I’ve had in YEARS. Lost the Hou teaser, AZ, GB under, Steelers under teaser, and Rams. Only thing I won was Buffalo for a total 1-5 week, dropping my total to 49-44 and that’s an all time low for me, 53% for the year. Goddamn, a shade above break even and we’re going to get up to 57% after the Superbowl, that’s my promise!

Goddamn, I said this since last week when the Skins lost. The Giants are winning this week. Yes, I know the Giants are 1-4 in last 5. Cowboys d allowed 30 points in half their games this year. Dallas 2-8 SU on the road, big shot but 5-2 ATS of late and 7-0 SU. Last game, Giants lost on a last second FG when they knocked Dak Prescott for the year and clown pussy head Andy Dalton led them down the field. Garbage weather today/tomorrow in north Jersey which plays right into the Giants hand. And of course, who knows Dallas better than the clapper himself, Jason Garrett. Giants just might win division or they may get the 3rd pick in the draft, it’s a hell of a swing.

First leg, Giants +7.5

It’s obvious the Texans have quit. Exhibit A: Brandon Allan 370 yds against the Texans defense. You gotta be shitting me, all they had to do is just win and I would’ve hit that teaser. Texans are 5-11 ATS of late, worst in NFL. I don’t care JJ Watt called everybody out; including Wade Phillips D cups.. Titans are 4-2 ATS of late and 13-6 SU. Titans are 6-13 ATS against Tenn and just got off of royal ass beating in GB. Derrick Henry is gonna run through defense like I ran through half of Terminal C before I had a diarrhea attack before a flight.

Second leg of teaser: Titans -1.5

The Niners have been trick for me to figure out. Niners 3rd down defense best in NFL, that’s pretty cool. Russ 14 giveaways last 10 games. Ok, there’s another trend. But San Fran 2-6 ATS of late and 2-6 SU. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home. Seattle 15-4 ATS against SF and 12-2 SU. Also, 5-1 SU of late. But here’s the problem, motivation. Seattle may pull everyone if and when GB beats the Bears for the #1 seed. And we know that Seattle d is soft, except when Jared Goff and the Rams can’t score from the 1 as well as Goff throwing a pick in the red zone. Kittle is back for the Niners and Beathard played well enough to beat the Cardinals. Teasing this baby up

Niners +13

Saints 5-9 in week 17s. All Saints RBS are out due to contact with Kamara. They must have been playing 2 minutes in the closet with each other, me-OW! Ty Johnson will be getting the start but that’s not going to get anyone’s clit hard. Saints 1-5 ATS against Carolina. Carolina 4-1 ATS of late and they’re playing hard for Matt Rhule. The Saints will be scoreboard watching and if GB gets up early and by a lot, those starters are coming right out. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers keep it close but let’s get that second leg of the teaser with

Teased to Car +11.5

Want an easy way to burn 30 minutes on Instagram. Just tap the search icon, that’s it. Hundreds of Vegas 9’s and above just waiting for you to click on their profile and eventually Only Fans page. And the Packers are looking as sexy as the NFC conference champion. Packers 9-1 SU in Chicago, 15-5 ATS against Chicago. Packers 18-7 ATS against Bears including last 3 covered. Bears have injuries in the secondary. 3.5 is a weird number and the Bears HATE the Packers. Plus, could the Bears backdoor this? Idk that but what I do know is the GB defense MAY get backdoored and especially if they go up early. So I’m going to do something I’ve yelled at others a million times for, a parlay. Gonna do GB money line parlay so I don’t have to worry about the 3.5, just win, baby.

KC Chiefs have a first round bye sewn up like Mitch McConnell’s turkey chin should be. He looks like a sad turtle and in the beginning stages of transitioning. Anyway, teams that have won home field throughout are 9-23 ATS in week 17. Chargers have covered 3 straight, Chiefs haven’t covered in 7. And by either magic, illusion, or blackmail, the Chargers players and ownership love Anthony Lynn. He’ll be playing for his job as well. But the Chargers can Charger themselves getting backdoored so here’s the other end of my money line parlay.

Philly 8-4 ATS as home dog. Wash 6-26 when Smith doesn’t play. 10-5 ATS when Smith plays. Philly 2-5 ATS of late, 1-6 SU. But 4-1 ATS at home. Skins 5-1 ATS of late but 2-5 ATS against Philly. This could be the end of Doug Peterson so I think Philly comes flying (sigh, fuck that song and the dummies who sing it) and plays hard. You also have Alex Smith probably out there for the Skins and he’s banged up. I think the Eagles keep it close and spoil the Skins, thus possibly helping out the Giants. But let’s give your ulcer and anus a LITTLE buffer and make Philly a double digit or near double digit dog. As much as I hate Philly, I want the Giants to get to the playoffs and I think if the Eagles lose, it won’t be in a blowout fashion as McLaurin is also questionable for Wash.

I did a 6.5 teaser and got Philly to 10

Dallas allows 5 yards a carry in awful weather. Under 6/6 for Giants, 4/5 at home. Giants don’t score points and they won’t be in the rain and cold tomorrow.

Second leg of the teaser is Giants under to 51

NFL Week 13 against the spread picks

Heidy-ho neighborinos. 3-3 last week AGAIN, ugh. The Giants got backdoored, that was a gut punch. But being first place as a Giants fan at THIS point in the season? I would’ve turned down +900 odds if you would’ve offered a bet the Giants would be in first at any point in the season after week 2. Enough crowing about being in the first in the rhino shit NFC east division. Anthony Lynn is the worst coach in the NFL BY FAR. Forget Adam Gase for a second; Lynn is the worst clock managing, situation calling HC with last week’s gaffe. Remember, I LOVED the Chargers over teased down. 4th and 27 at the 50 down by 10 and Herbert gets a miraculous Hail Mary. So Chargers have 10 seconds and no time outs. These dumb dildos try to RUN it, not once, but TWICE. Throw the goddamn ball once, maybe twice. And then kick the FG to cut it to 7. (Which would’ve put us at the over). But no, fuckface Lynn doesn’t do it and I lost. So I had to tease GB with Sea which thankfully hit. And for those who listened to me and teased Seattle down to below a FG, you’re thanking me now. Cause if you took them at -6, that was one of the worst backdoor pushes you’ll ever see. 38-33-2 for the year, 53.5% for the year which is just above break even (52.5%), let’s keep climbing.

The Titans are in the bottom 5 of pass rushing teams. Browns are 11-7 SU against teams in bottom third in pass rush. They also have a 9.7 YPA against bottom 5 pass rush teams. Cleveland 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS on the road. What does that mean? Take them as a dog, not as a favorite. Cleveland has one of the top rushing attacks and Baker can play well when the opposing team isn’t blitzing him like when an Instagram model posts thirst trap pics. I think 6 is wayyyy too high and the Titans defense is putrid. Cleveland could win but EASILY keep it close the entire time or backdoor it.

I locked in 2 days ago, Cle +6

Colt McCoy, cool porno name, bad QB. But that’s whose under center after Danny Jones strains a hamstring. Am I here to play loyalist and take my Giants and the points, being they’re AMAZING ATS record as a dog? FOH. I am here to say the Giants won’t be scoring much, as they usually don’t. Plus, they have a good defense as we know. They’re going to lose and it may be kinda close. I expect a lot of running and dump offs which obviously translates to a lot of time taken off the clock. Giants are 4/6 under of late and Sea has gone under 4/6 vs NFC. Weather is supposed to be fine so I’m taking…

Giants under 47.5

Completely forgot how Shanahan owns McVay in last week’s Rams pick. However, Rams are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS off a loss and McVay is 6-0 since taking over the Rams. Let’s also note the Rams are 5-0 in Zona so this is more of the same thing; divisional rival owning one another. Rams D allowing 15.1 rushing yds to opposing defenses, lowest in NFL. Let’s add a dash of a Kyler Murray shoulder issue with a sprinkle of the Cardinals have been BAD of late, 1-4 ATS. And that one…was the hail mary game against Buffalo. Too many numbers on the side of the Rams and a few books have Rams -2.5 at this time but I feel comfortable taking…

Rams -2.5

The last time the Raiders came to the east coast to the play the Jets, they got anally swagglefoosed. Anal Swagglefoose sounds like a great punk band name or gay porn title, tres ja lies, Clarisse. Vegas was embarrassed last week in Atlanta. I can’t see Vegas losing another one; I can’t see them losing to the Jets again. Vegas is 4-1 of late, 4-2 ATS against Jets. 6-2 ATS on the road but 0-6 SU at the Jets. Jets 3-8 of late ATS and Gase is just working out the string until he gets fired 30 minutes after the last game of the season. Can the Raiders get backdoored laying 8? You betcha as they say in Wisconsin. Raiders win but let’s not get fucked like a bunch of you did on Monday night. I locked it in when it was 9 but I teased to down to..

Raiders -3

What else are are going to tease it with? Nothing puts a smile on my face more than Philly losing and me winning at their expense. Philly heads to Green Bay and I know this is going to sound like Squaresville but let’s look at facts. Packers 8/11 over 30 ppg of late. They’re 14-4 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. GB is 2-5 ATS home against Philly but Philly 2-5 ATS and SU against GB of their last 7. Philly 4-8 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS on the road. Wentz 27th in QBR and no more than 60% completion in his last 7 games. GB has a decent pass rush and Philly doesn’t run near as much as they used to. 8 is also a high number and we know Philly can backdoor anyone because Doug Pederson kicks PATs like Philly fans avoid Zubaz pants and hoodies at bars. Can the Packers cover less than a FG? You betcha. So this is an EASY second leg of the teaser. I jumped the gun too early again when it was GB -8.5 so leg number 2 of the teaser is…

GB -2.5

This last pick is going to have strings attached. IF Cam Newton doesn’t play, do not take this action. I already locked in before knowing he had an injury designation (questionable but expected to play) and I should’ve because Cam gets hurt if someone farts in his general direction. Again, let’s look at facts. You know what Bill Bellichick’s winning % is against 1st year QBs? 65%. So Justin Herbert is going to have a tough day like Michael Douglas did in Falling Down. In a battle of coaches, it’s Bellichick vs Anthony Lynn. This is Mike Tyson vs the Sherminator from American Pie. BB owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU and ATS but those are obviously with Brady. Pats are 1-4 ATS on the road which doesn’t help; except for these facts: Chargers are 0-5 ATS of late, 2-8 SU in 10. 3-8 ATS at home. If ANYONE can fuck up a cup of coffee, it’s Anthony Lynn. You’re giving me 1.5 points? You don’t think they can’t win outright and of course, win with a last minute FG? Why not. And again, this is IF Cam plays.

Pats +1.5

Houston 4-8 ATS and SU of late. Houston 0-7-1 home against the Colts of late. Colts just got violated like an SJW watching American History X. Colts are 7-3 SU of late, 6-1 vs You, 5-2 SU against Houston. Colts missing their left tackle but the Texans lost their biggest receiver, Will Fuller, due to steroids for the year. Colts own them plus on the bounce back.

Colts -3

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 10 ATS picks

Nothing to say but a a disappointing last 2 weeks here and believe me, no one more broken up about this than me. 2-3 last week, bringing me to a total of 29-25 and 54% for the year. We’re slightly above the break even point of 52.5% so I’m be damned if I fall to that level. But before we get into the picks, a shameless plug. If you haven’t bought tickets yet for our live Gutting the Sacred Cow show, please do so. And don’t worry, you’ll get refunded if Covid shuts everything down. I’m running low on time so no horseshit, here we go. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

NEVER bet the NY Giants…unless you’re getting 10 or more points. Yes, Philly is healthier with a possible Miles Sanders return. Philly of late, 3-6 ATS, 2-5 ATS against Giants. Giants are a shocking 5-1 ATS in last 6 with a bunch of blown leads, including 1 against Philly. Line is 4, tease them to 10. And for some reason, I think they could win.

First half of the teaser Giants +10

Niners are indeed banged up but I think we’re getting too much with the number. Saints just played a perfect game against the Bucs and they may get caught looking ahead. Niners are 5-1-1 against NO and 10-3 SU on the road. Saints are 2-5 ATS in last 7. I teased the Niners to +15.5, I don’t think they lose by more than 2 TDs.

Second half Niners +15.5

There is a wind warning in Cleveland, up to 60 mph. Texans are ABYSMAL in the run plus they’re getting Chubb back. They’re gonna take less chances with Baker fresh off the Covid list. Browns last 8/9 have gone UNDER against Houston and under 6/7 in November.

Teased Browns under to 51.5

Bills over 7/9 of late and 7/7 against NFC west. AZ over 5/6 against Buff and 5/5 in November. Both defenses stink so let’s bring that number down to below 50.

Teased Bills over to 49.5

Arizona disappointed me on 2 tickets last week and again, that defense stinks. They’re ripe for a backdoor, let alone losing outright. AZ 5-14-1 SU at home and 3-6 ATS against AFC east. Bills 6-1 ATS against AZ, 7-2 SU of late. Give me more than a TD against a porous defense, done.

Teased Bills to +9

Chargers have been the heartbreak team of the last 2 years. They’ve lost 3 games when having a lead of 17 or more. They should’ve won last week against the Raiders with a late TD that got called off. Chargers are 4-9 ATS of late, Miami 6-1 of late and 5-1 at home. But I think the Chargers do not lose by more than a TD. They’ll find a way to fuck it up late but not by more than 7. BTW, Herbert one of the best against the blitz and Miami blitzes ~40% of the time.

Teased Chargers to +8

Pats BARELY beat the Jets, thank god I teased them to 1.5 Bal 13-5-1 of late, 17-3 SU of late, and 10-0 SU on the road. Also, 6-0 ATS against AFC east. Pats are 1-4 ATS and SU of late. 2-5 ATS of late as well but we’re not going to get cute, we’re teasing this one to…

Teased Ravens to .5

Denver defense stinks as does the Raiders defense. Broncos over 4/5 of late, Raiders over 7/8 of late. Lock is getting a ton of garbage time fantasy and regular points. Den bottom 5 in sack and QB hit rate. Oakland no slouch…themselves.

Teased Den Over to 44.5

Haven’t locked in yet but will probably take the Rams

McVay 4-1 against Sea. Seattle 1-5 SU in LA. Rams 6-3 SU of late, 5-0 SU at home