NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

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This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

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Week 5 picks ATS

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Finally, a winning week last week.  This guy went 5-2 and took the Giants under to close out a successful week.  I did take the under of thursday night’s Niners game.  Fucking 7-7 at the half and then those 2 teams decided to have an offensive orgy, handing me a loss.  Oh well, let’s get to the picks this week.

As my friend Paul says, “I’m taking the Vikings until someone scores more than 14 points against them.”  And I just don’t see any fault in his logic.  I wanted to bet the Vikes on monday night but that’s just bad form betting against your own team.  Would’ve been right, that’s for sure.  Vikes are at Houston and I don’t see Brock Osweiler deciding to stop throwing INTs.  The line is -6.5 so if you can sneak in before the line goes to -7, I advise you do so.  Sam Bradford is playing fantastically and is due for a stinker but not against a JJ Watt-less defense.

I’m taking the Vikings -6.5

You’re going to see a theme now so let’s see if you dum-dums can figure it out:

Tennessee is in Miami after Hurricane Matthew ravaged that coastline.  The temperature is a balmy 86 degrees so that game is going on unaffected.  The weather is the only thing that town has going for them.  Miami is garbage, they barely beat the Browns for their only win of the year.  Tannehill is so awful that Brian Griese is shaking his head in disgust.  Tennessee is decent and they’re getting 3.  I’m applying Paul’s logic here: until Miami beats somebody besides the Browns, I’m going against them.

I’m taking the Titans +3

The aforementioned NY football Giants have played uninspiring football the last 2 weeks.  Eli’s house of horrors has always been Minnesota and they flat out gave away the game to Washington.  I’m a stats guy and the Giants OWN Green Bay.  Home, away, neutral site, or hell, even in Ecuador.  Packers haven’t been that good either.  My lock of the week was GB -6.5 2 weeks ago and Detroit roared back in garbage time to cut the lead to 7…in Lambeau. GB is off an early bye but Sam Shields is out.  This should be OBJ’s coming out party unless he turns into a weeping mess if someone gets into his head.  You may want to take the Giants on the money line and really capitalize but the line is -7.  Giants needs to get off their ass and dial up the pass rush, you hear me Spagnuolo?  We bought all of these guys in the off season, let’s utilize them for what they do best.

I’m taking the Giants +7

Baltimore hasn’t beaten anyone by more than 3 points all year.  The Skins can put up points and the Bal D isn’t scaring anyone.  The line is Bal -3.5 and the Skins have looked good since coming back against my Giants.  Rivalry game and I think the Skins play them tight and may possibly win.

I’m taking the Skins +3.5

The Colts suck.  The Colts sucked against Jacksonville in London last week.  Hope you listened to me and took the over!  The Colts are coming back home and passed on an early bye.  The Colts defense sucks; they’ve given up 30+ points in each of their losses.  The Bears aren’t an offensive juggernaut either but have been better with Hoyer under center.  Jordan Howard had a nice game last week and no reason he can’t run against a garbage front 7 of the Colts.  I think the Bears play this tight and Indy coming straight home after London without a bye should not bode well for the Colts.

I’m taking the Bears +4.5

I’ll see Hillary Clinton’s penis before I see the Chargers and Raiders play solid defense.  SD without their top corner and gosh, does it matter?  This is going to be a shootout and that’s that.

I’m taking SD over 51