NFL Week 8 picks ATS

Hey everyone,

I’ve been lazy with the picks on the blog of late as I’m trying to force you to watch everyone’s favorite fantasy football/gambling show, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  Here’s the link to make it easy on you lunkheads: FFJK FB page.  And for the love of god, we need some help.  We’re no longer with Be Terrific so we’re going to have to start funding everything out of our own pockets.  So if you’d be so kind to take us up on our services such as we’ll do your daily fantasy lineup for you or give you access to my top plays of the week, that would help out with the expenses.  For love of God, we have made you a TON of free money.  You’d be doing us a solid; here’s the link to do so: FFJJ Patreon

ATL is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS.  1-4 ATS vs NFC and 3-7 SU in October.  Matt Ryan with limited practice all week after leaving the game early against an angry Seattle team who got curb stomped.  Sea 7-1 ATS on the road, 11-4 SU of late.  Cincy 1-4-1 vs the Rams, 0-9 SU on the road.  Rams 9-3 ATS and stayed in Georgia holding a minicamp and not going back west to have to fly over to London.

Sea in a teaser with the Rams.  Sea to -1 and Rams to -6

GB 2-6 SU and ATS against KC.  2-4 SU in KC.   Fun fact, Rodgers .500 ATS on the road.  Andy Reid now has an 3 extra prep days.  Matt Moore 20-10 ATS as a starter.  KC 12-5 SU at home and 5-2 SU of late.  KC will run the ball at the awful GB run defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers’s hands.

KC +3.5

Explain to me how a backup QB is laying TWO TDs and I don’t care it’s at home.  Miami 2-7 ATS of late, 0-9 SU of late.  But they’re 4-2 ATS against Pitt, 1-4 SU in Pitt.  Wayyyy too many points for Mason Rudolph who just came back from a Mortal Kombat fatality.  Dolphins almost upset the Bills last week; they’re not lying down at all.  Pitt has yet to score 27.  Home teams 18-21-2 home teams off a bye  Fitzpatrick gets them fired up to cover.

Dolphins +14.5

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.

 

Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

Week 12 picks ATS

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I feel like Tony Montana after he had that Mt Rainier of cocaine on his desk.  I feel like Eli Manning after he threw the fade to Plaxico in the first Super Bowl against the cheating, shitbag Pats.  I feel like Eli Manning when he perfectly dropped that ball in Mario Manningham’s basket in the 2nd Superbowl on his way to beating the cheating, shitbag Pats in the second Superbowl.  I feel like Derek Jeter after the flip play against the A’s in 2001.  I am KILLING it with the picks.  6-1 last week and 2-0 on Thanksgiving.  Not a bad way to enjoy the holiday.  Now if I could only get my hands on a NES classic or 4 so I can sell them for 200 bucks on Ebay.  Let’s talk picks:

Already hit Pitt -8 and Wash +7

San Diego does nothing but put up points.  San Diego does nothing but give up points.  Houston is home after getting screwed on monday night (Well, not according to me.  I had Oak -6.5 monday night so I felt just fine, thank you.)  I think both teams can easily put up in the 20’s making this an easy pick.

I’m taking SD over 46.5

Baltimore has a top 10 defense.  Cincinnatti has lost AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard which is 86% of their offense.  I pulled that number out of my ass but honestly, you would’ve bought that.  Baltimore is due for a win, they’re at home, and a wounded tiger may be quite dangerous but not when it’s missing 2 legs.  

I’m taking the Ravens -3.5

Trusting Atlanta to cover is like accepting a condom from a pledge in a fraternity.  You know the fucker poked holes in them so you really can’t trust them.  But I’m not trusting the Falcon’s defense to hold anyone.  I’m trusting both teams to score points. Atl off a bye and AZ can score against that putrid D.  Atl stink ATS at home so that’s why I’m shying away from ATL -6.  So…

I’m taking ATL over 50.5

The Pats are human.  They pushed with the Niners and Seattle gashed their D.  This team obviously is in the hands of Tom Brady.  Did I mention he has a gimpy knee?  It’s probably from when Giselle kicked him after he kept pulling away carrots and sugar cubes from her.  Boom!  Gronk is in but also banged up.  Let’s add that with the Jets do play them tight at home.  I know, trust Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Fucking crazy, I get it.  But the number is right and the Pats are susceptible now

The Packers are done, mentally and physically.  Aaron Rodgers isn’t the same.  Their secondary is worse than any Wes Anderson film.  That’s right, I said it.  That man is horrifically overrated and the hipsters place him in dead center of their alter.  The Eagles are undefeated ATS at home and after a thorough beating in Seattle and if Doug Pederson stops going for it on 4th down, they’ll cover this one easily.

I’m taking Philly -3

 

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Last week 2-3-1 after Den and the Browns didn’t show up.  The Titans gave that game away and the Jets fucked me to a push as Fitzpatrick went Fitzpatrick.  Clean slate now, let’s do this!

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Well, not so clean slate.  I took Cle over last week and Flacco and the Cle QBs fucked me but good so I missed that one.  So, starting the week 0-1.

Drew Brees is home and facing a Den offense that couldn’t score against the Raiders.  The Raiders?  That defense is putrid.  Also will mention Derrick Wolfe and both Den CBs are out.  Denver can’t stop the run and if Ingram doesn’t fumble, they can run the ball down their throats.  Did I mention Drew Brees is home?

I’m taking the Saints -3

The Jets are home with a Bryce Petty at QB and the Rams come to town.  Both teams score less than white men with Khloe Kardashian.  This reeks of 17-13.  The under is 39 which means VERY little wriggle room but I just don’t see the scoreboard lighting up unless there is a power surge.

I’m taking the under 39.

Carolina is home against a beleaguered Chiefs who is without Maclin and Justin Houston on defense.  Bet the Chiefs at home, don’t touch them on the road.  Carolina is making a mini run and 3 points isn’t too much to ask for but then again, people who took Carolina said that last week as they got backdoor pushed.

I’m taking Carolina -3

I cannot see Pittsburgh losing this week.  I don’t care Dallas is hotter than Donald Trump’s daughter.  (I’d make her a mix tape, that’s how hot she is).  Pitt had a rough week last week but Ben will be ready to roll.  They’re home, the line is only a FG, and I think the Black and Yellow squad stop those dildos from Dallas.  Dallas is due for a loss and here it is.

I’m taking Pittsburgh -3

San Diego has done nothing but cover spreads as an underdog.  I just don’t know if Miami is going to through a monkey wrench on their “home field advantage.”  SD doesn’t handle success well but here’s what I do know, SD puts up points.  And Miami could put up some points as well so what does that mean?  That’s right, enjoy watching both teams score points.  Jarvis Landry is probably playing as Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams.  Travis Benjamin is doubtful but I think points can be scored.

I’m taking the over 49.

I hate the Patriots but goddamn, they’ve made me a ton of cash.  I took Brady in 2 leagues and waited out the suspension so I look like a genius.  Pats are off the bye and at home against Seattle.  Buffalo came into Seattle and scored more than everyone thought would.  Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be.  Flying across country after playing a monday night game and going into New England is about as fun as watching Hillary fake laugh her way through a speech.  Dion Lewis is back as well so more weapons for Tom the Trump supporter to play with.  Bellichek is >60% ATS at home and I plan on riding that money train into the sunset.  

I’m taking NE -7.5

Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

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Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs.  Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets.  Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock.  You know who is out for Seattle?  Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor.  2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today.  Drew Brees at home AND getting points?  Here’s a stat to make you feel better:  Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss.  You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t?  How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner).  Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats?  You got it.  Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS.  Ok, fine.  But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4.  Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS.  No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up.  Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright.  Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this.  I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well.  The Super Bowl hangover is real.  But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category.  Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice.  And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo.  Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road?  I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home.  Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D.  Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws.  Dallas may very well win this game.  BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great.  They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth.  Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas.  And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts.  Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite.  Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9.  The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

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We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon.  I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building.  First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency.  Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year.  And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago.  The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care.  McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up.  Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness.  Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6