NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

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NFL picks week 11

Ever get punched in the nuts so hard, kicked in the head, and then forced to watched Chris D’Elia’s standup? Yeah, that was me last week with my picks. You want to know how bad I was? 2-10-1 last week. That’s inconceivable. The Ravens and Steelers combined for 5 of those 10 losses. What a complete shit show this was and man, I was sick to my stomach for a few days. However, new week so goddamn, saddle up.

Joe Flacco starting today. Those words I wouldn’t expect to type unless this was when we had a black President in office. Jets defense has allowed 175 points in their last 4 and Dolphins blitz the most at 39% of the time. I don’t think Flacco can move his wheelchair that fast so get ready for a heavy dose of max protect for ol Joey. Jets have the 2nd worst run defense in the league but Dolphins have the NFL’s worst YPC rate at 2.5. If not now, when, for Myles Gaskin? Miami has covered 6 straight against the Jets but 1-5 ATS as a favorite. BUUUT the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS against the Jets and 6-1 SU. Jets 2-8 ATS and SU against Miami of late, 3-9 SU at home. I got this number earlier today at 3.5, now at 4. So here we go, 21-17!

Dolphins -3.5

Houston has been impossible to bet unless you tease them and even that has been a dubious proposition…kind of like dating someone who immediately offers up their pronouns in the first 2 seconds of meeting you. Hard pass, yuck. Texans 2-5 ATS of late and Tennessee 5-1 ATS of late. Tyrod will be back in there as QB for Texans and the last time he started and played a full game, Cooks had over 100 yds. Tenn pass defense is 27th in the NFL and I think Texans keep it close enough. Tennessee isn’t blowing anyone out without Henry and they sure let the Saints fuck up my bet late last week. Key number I got so I pounced on this earlier in the week.

Texans +10.5

Let’s see if Kirk Cousins unvaccinated mouth can kiss Aaron Rodgers supposed immunized lips and suck out his soul like Shang Tsung in Mortal Combat. GB has been a covering machine of late, 9-0 ATS and 4-2 ATS against Minn. Hell, they’re 5-0 ATS on the road. 8/9 Vikings/GB game have been decided by 7 or less. Good news on the Vikings front: raping and pillaging is up! JK, LOL ūüôā Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are back on defense for the Vikings. What’s scary is the Vikings are 1-7 ATS at home this year and 5-11 ATS of late. But they do cover as dogs and this is an absolute do or die game for the Vikes. Also, no Aaron Jones for GB today. Rodgers has a gimpy toe and let’s see if we can win this outright or just lose by a point.

Vikings +1.5

Saints are a dead nuts first half under and dead nuts second half over. I see Payton playing conservatively to open the game as well as doing his best to keep it close and mistake free for Simian. Believe it or not, you can now type those words without loading a weapon to put in your mouth as he’s played “well” of late.

Eagles 1h under 22.5

Eagles best rushing attack in last 3 weeks meets the best rush defense in the NFL. Saints allow league lowest 1.9 yards allowed for zone reads so that takes Philly out of its element. Best number I can find: Saints 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright when they’re an underdog. Yes, I know there’s no Kamara and the line went up to 3 but hey, when you lock in early, you get burned sometimes. Let’s hope for an outright Saints win. Eagles have been beating on bad teams but losing to good ones. They’re 4-2 ATS of late but 5-13 SU in that period. Meaning they’re obviously better as the dog. Also, they’re 0-5 SU at home. Give me an excuse to root against Philly, sure, why the hell not.

Saints +2

All of the reasons above I like the Vikings and Kyler Murray is PROBABLY out for Zona as the line dropped to Sea -3. That screams inside information and glad I locked in this teaser earlier! See, things do work for you on the other side. Kyler Murray quickly becoming the guy you draft in fantasy and then take a solid backup 3-4 rounds later. Speaking of Kyler, did his parents mean to name him Kyler or did they want to name him Kyle but have that overbearing, annoying Long Island accent? Back afta dis. Zona just got embarrassed at home with Colt McCoy and if we get him again, YAHTZEE. Zona 6-2 ATS and 8-2 SU of late. They’re 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against Seattle. Russ Wilson got hosed on calls last week and was shut out for the first time in his career in GB.

Vikings +7.5 and Seattle +7.5

No Kyler makes this game even easier to pick under but some stats nonetheless. Seattle under 6/7 of late, 4/6 under against Seattle, 5/5 vs NFC opponent. Also, the under is 12-2 when Russ starts.

Az under 48

Lions have allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Myles Garrett ALREADY has 13 sacks which is getting close to Strahan’s record so let’s hope he falls short of that distinction. Not that it mattered (except last week when the Lions TIED the Steelers and of course, I had the Steelers teased to 2.5) Goff is out and Boyle is in for the Lions. It’s supposed to pour in Cleveland so I grabbed under 43.5 a couple of days ago. It’s 42.5 at the time of this article so what does that tell you? Det has gone 6/7 under of late and the Browns have the distinct honor of going under 5/5 in week 11. Yeah, who gives a shit about that but hey, it’s information! Browns have gone 4/6 over of late but with a Baker banged up shoulder and impending (supposed) monsoon, except a lot of running and Detroit offensive ineptitude.

Browns under 43.5

4 team ML Parlay: Niners, Titans, Browns, Bucs

NFL picks week 4 ATS 10/2/21

Still picking splinters out of my b-hole as I took a bat to the backside last weekend, 4-6. How the hell did the Vikings NOT hit the over after there were over 30 points scored at the half!??! Philly ate shit as did the Chiefs so first week under .500. Always tough to keep at a 66% clip but great news, I’m still 58% which definitely keeps you going back to the window to CASH THOSE TICKETS. Ready for freeeeee money? Great! And don’t spend your winnings checking out the new Sopranos movie, hoofa, did that suck.

Why bury the best game on the slate? Rams are home after disappointing the Bucs teased to +7.5 and they’re facing the also undefeated Cardinals. Let’s give some stats and this is going to smack you across the face like a Roman soldier helmet; the real thing or the sexual act. The Rams are 10-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home. Rams offensive line is morning boner solid, only 3 sacks allowed all year. McVay 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against the Cards and his AVERAGE cover margin is 14 points. Cards AVERAGE 16.5 ppg against the Rams. How about some Kyler Murray stats? His QB rating against the Rams: 31, 12, 53, and 38. That’s really awful. Speaking of awful, how about that Sopranos film? Christ almighty, what a Cleveland Steamer of a film. But here you have it, undisputed evidence why the Rams are the play. I teased the Rams to a pick em along with the Bengals -1.5 so halfway home! I also teased the Bengals and Rams over to 48.5 as the Rams are 5/5 over at home. I can easily see this being a 31-20 game.

Big spread ml parlay special this week: Bengals, already covered. Bills 11-3 ATS and 10-2 SU of late, Hou 1-7 SU of late. You mean to tell me the Texans stand a cunt hair’s chance in Buffalo? I sure don’t. But I locked this parlay in on Wednesday which was before Julio Jones and AJ Brown were ruled out. The Jets have scored 20 pts IN 3 GAMES ALL SEASON. Yes, the Titans defense is awful but here’s a nugget that doesn’t hurt to poop out: Derrick Henry AVERAGES 146.6 yds in each of last 9 games. Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late but 13-7 SU. Jets 1-8 ATS and SU at home. I’m not saying this is going to be pretty; I’m saying like this would be paying to have sex with a stripper from Belleville, NJ…not proud of it and certainly not telling your friends but it will get the job done.

Bengals, Bills, Titans ML parlay

There shouldn’t be many points in this game due to the Jets sucking and the aforementioned two wideouts sitting: Jets under at home 11/17 and overall 6/7 of late. So let’s hold our noses and pray for heavy doses of Derrick Henry.

Titans under 44.5 and Titans 1h under 23

Well, the NY Giants continue to burn me like I was accused of heresy or homosexuality in the 15th century when betting them as a favorite. Now they head to the reopened Superdome after the hurricane washed away leftover Oakleys from drunk people leaving them after falling asleep in an alley of piss. Saints D is tops, #1 in PA, #2 in yards allowed. Hey guess what? No Slayton or Shepard in the lineup this weekend. I don’t care that the Giants are 10-2 ATS on the road, they’re 4-8 SU of late, 1-5-1 ATS, 2-5 SU against the Saints. Winston not wowing people on offense but I cannot see the Giants storming back to backdoor this one, let alone win. But why take a chance so I teased the Saints down along with the Titans

Saints teaser -1.5 and Titans teaser -1.5

Saints under of late 5/5 as well as 5/5 vs NFC and the Giants are 5/6 against the NFC. Pitt under 7/10 of late, 12/17 on the road, and 6/7 vs NFC. Ben is cooked and Pitt’s d can slow down Aaron Rodgers enough to keep this score below 51.5 with the tease

Giants teaser under 47.5 and Pitt teaser under 51.5

The TB line baffles as much as people who find Sebastian Maniscalco funny. We get it, he reminds you of your Italian family with goofy faces. He’s making a mint with his merch and I’m typing up NFL picks on a Saturday afternoon, he wins! But I can’t see a possibility that the Pats win; I don’t care that Brady is running the Pats offense in Tampa. I care that Brady off a loss and ready to shove it up Bellichick’s dickhole. Bucs are 8-4 ATS of late, 10-1 SU, and 8-1 SU on the road. The Pats are 2-5 SU and ATS. Pats have been underdogs at home 19x since 2000 and they’re 14-4 ATS. How many are with Brady? IDK, I’m not giving that much of a shit. Name one Patriots offensive player that you have to circle. I’ll wait. Still waiting. I’ll see a better Sopranos movie before you give me someone who strikes fear into any of your hearts. The Pats strength is running the ball and we all know how the Bucs can stop the run. The Pats have NO ONE who can expose the Bucs secondary so how are the Pats able to score points? Antonio Brown is back but Gronk is out. I see nothing but a Bucs win but didn’t want to lay 7 in the goofy backdoor instance.

Saints teaser -1 and Bucs teaser -1

Who are the Bears starting at QB? Cade McNown, Jim Miller, or Rex Grossman are all candidates vs what Fields did last week agains the Browns. Chicago got blown out 2/3, Allen Robinson has 4 straight games under 40 yds. Call me insane but I like the Lions which the Ford family hasn’t said in a long time except when talking about tax write offs. I had the Ravens in 2 teasers and the ML parlay so when that Tucker FG took a fortuitous bounce, I shit myself pretty hard. Harder than David Chase did when writing that Sopranos film. Ok, I’m done with those references, I promise. But the Bears are -3, who the fuck are they to be laying ANY kind of points, especially when they have YET to name this week’s QB. Detroit has played hard for 2.5 out of 3 games this year and we all know they should’ve won last week. Lions previous numbers don’t back the play but remember these are all with Stafford and not Goff: 2-4 ATS and 1-4 ATS in Chicago. I think the play is to play a 7 pt teaser and get the Lions to over 10.5. Watch the Lions win outright…

I’ve hit the Vikings dead nuts last week and bet their over every game this week. BTW, Thielen has a caught a TD in 11 straight October games. This Browns D stinks and they’ve covered 2 games over the past DECADE against the NFC. Browns 1-7 SU vs Minn, 1-4 SU in Minn. Minn is 12-3 SU in October and 6-2-1 ATS in week 4. Give me wackadoo Kirk Cousins who has been top 3 QB this year so far catching 10 points.

7 pt teaser Vikings +10 and Lions teaser +10.5

After my buddy Nick gave me a few stats, it’s hard to unsee these stats: Seattle is 15-5 ATS against the Niners, 13-2 SU, and 6-1 SU in SF. Niners are 4-8 ATS of late and 0-5 SU. And now Seattle is catching points AND off 2 losses? This is do or die time for Russ to air it out like Rodgers did against SF last weekend. If not now, when?

Sea +3

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

NFL Week 3 ATS picks 9/27/20

Proper Vegas attire in 2020

No article last week as I was in Vegas so that’s why you should be following me on social media and you would’ve seen me go 3-1 last week. I had Detroit over, KC/Pitt teaser, AZ/Buffalo teaser, and the Jets under. The goddamn Jets broke us when Darnold rolls out of a sack and throws a TD with less than a minute left in the game. 3-1 last week, 3-2 week 1 which puts me at a robust 6-3 for the year, 66% ATS.

I apologize for the lack of numbers with these handicaps as I lost all my screenshots from oddshark when I had to fix my work iPad. Odds shark is censored in Jersey because they advertise gambling sites not based in Jersey. You pinko commie bastards. So I’m going on memory why I took these games without my usual stats. I know I’ll sound like my buddy Jeff Paul who makes his weekly pick on some horseshit logic but I promise, this won’t happen again.

The Lions stink. Blowing 2 first half leads turned into 2 losses and I have these cunts as an over for the year. Now they’re in AZ who is hot as a pistol. But I think Patricia knows his ass is on the line. And as I said, Detroit has come out firing in both first halves of their games. So I think Detroit grabs an early lead or at WORST, is hanging tough at the end of the half. And Stafford has Golliday back this week. So why not take…

Detroit +3.5 FIRST HALF. That extra hook helps but I truly think Detroit is up at halftime.

San Francisco 49ers defensive line has TWO STARTERS OUT. Cluster injuries on the line plus no Sherman and their starting CB. Oh yeah, Garoppolo, Kittle, and Mostert are also OUT. They’re throwing more shit out there on defense than the sidewalks of San Fran. I know my Giants stink this year but goddamnit, now is the time for a win. They’re home and almost beat the Bears last week if it weren’t for a horseshit offensive PI call. Yes, I know Barkley and Sheppard are out. If the Giants can’t beat the Niners when they’re THAT beat up, there’s a problem. But remember, this is the Giants and as Pesci said in Goodfellas, they can fuck up a cup of coffee.

So let’s tease them up to +9.5 and to find someone else to tease…

Dallas is in Seattle and as good as Seattle looks on offense, they look putrid on defense. They’re among the worst in pass rush and pass defense. Dallas and Seattle off emotional wins so that cancels out. No 12th man to screw with Dak getting the yips. I’m not betting against Russ but I’m betting on Dallas NOT getting blown out. They’ll lose but not by double digits and again, that Seattle pass D is more atrocious the stench that came from the CHAZ Zone in Seattle.

Dallas +11 is the second leg of the teaser.

Bellichick off the bye; blah, blah, blah is something like 68% ATS. Playing the Raiders at home, 1pm, after playing Monday night. Jacobs banged up a bit and Ruggs is out. I know that the center for the Pats is out which hurts but I think the Pats do enough to win. Yes, the line is -6.5 but not for me because I…

Teased the Pats down to -.5. Why leave the backdoor open?

Who to tease with now? Why not go with Backdoor Burrow in Philly? I think Cincy can cover that but I wouldn’t be surprised that Philly puts it together and blows them out. But what I do see happening today are points. Burrow can easily air it out against a shitty Philly secondary and if Carson Wentz stops throwing the ball to the other team, they can score as well. I know Cincy has the WORST ranked run defense and Philly will be inclined to expose them there.

But when I can take the over down to 41.5, I’ll do that easily thinking both teams can put up 21 apiece.

Rams smoked Philly last week (well done. Nothing sending those assholes down the drain and calling for Wentz’s head) and flew home. Why fly back? Stay east! Well, now they have to come back and play a white hot Buffalo. Here’s a stat: Buffalo has outscored their opponents in the first halves of their games something like 52-17. Again, lost my screenshots. They’re playing well at home and the Rams are without Akers, their RB. You’re laying less than a FG, the line is now 1.5. I got it at -2.5 last night so sharp money must have poured in on the Rams this morning. Not as confident on this pick now but we’ll see.

Buffalo -2.5

Last pick of the week: I’m FLOORED that Green Bay and KC are getting 3 or more on the road in empty stadiums. Those are some sexy numbers but here’s what sexier, teaser time again. Show me a world that GB (admittedly, I was wrong about Rodgers stinking this year, he’s top 5) and KC lose, let alone by more than a TD.

Teasing GB to +9 and KC +9.5

NFL picks Wildcard weekend ATS 2018

Bullying is frowned upon in today’s society. ¬†But I’m a bully, that’s right, a bully. ¬†I’ve bullied the shit out of my bookie for this season and ESPECIALLY in the month of December. ¬†I went 21-5 in December, are you fucking kidding me? ¬†81% is just out of this world. ¬†I’m going to humblebrag these fun facts: ¬†I’ve paid for a new mattress with all of this free money. ¬†I paid for all my Christmas gifts with all of that free money. ¬†I paid for a trip to the Caymans with all of this free money. ¬†And I all ask from you, 9 loyal readers, is watch the latest and greatest season of Comics Watching Comics, Season 7, only on Amazon Video. ¬†You’re getting the all-star panel, the people YOU voted to see on the All-Star edition. ¬†So here it is and my promise to you, it will not disappoint. ¬†Onto the picks.

Yes, the playoffs are a completely different animal. ¬†Always try and find that hot team with karma in their pocket and ride them to the end. ¬†This year, I think it’s the Saints. ¬†Who out of the AFC? ¬†Maybe the Colts, maybe the Chiefs. ¬†But not the Texans. ¬†Why? ¬†Because the Texans may have one of the best pass rushes out there. ¬†However, the Colts have the #1 ranked offensive line, only allowing 16 sacks in 16 games. ¬†I think my boy Eli Manning would sell his children on the dark web or to Apple to make iPhones for that kind of protection. ¬†The Colts have made me an absolute windfall of cash this season. ¬†Is this a loyalty pick? ¬†No. ¬†Because even though they played Sunday night and they’re the first game on Saturday, ¬†I think Andrew Luck can be the QB to possibly carry his team on his shoulders to the end. ¬†Colts are 9-1 SU of late, 6-3 ATS on the road. ¬†Colts are 5-0-1 in Houston and 17-7 SU vs Houston. ¬†A more telling number: Colts were 5-2 ATS vs teams over .500. ¬†Texans were 3-6 ATS vs teams over .500. ¬†The line is 1.5 and if you’re taking the dog, you might as well take the money line as there is little value taking the 1.5. ¬†

Hence why I grabbed the Colts on the ML +110.

Teasers have been working well for me this year, my first loss with a teaser was last week when GB failed to show up against Detroit. ¬†Seattle is a team that you don’t want to face as Russell Wilson has become a comeback kid and no lead is safe enough. ¬†Yes, Dallas has been good on defense but that defense gave up over 30 points last week to the Giants in a completely meaningless game. ¬†No, they didn’t sit any of their regulars except Zeke. ¬†Last I checked, Jason Garrett is not one to be trusted in the playoffs. ¬†And along with other fans of NFC East teams, I’d like to thank Garrett for doing well this season as now Jerry is going to HAVE to give Garrett a new deal. ¬†His piss poor clock management and abusing of timeouts are always welcome. ¬†Seattle is one of the best running teams and Dallas is ok at stopping the run. ¬†Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 6-1 SU as well. ¬†Seattle 4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 SU on the road. ¬†Seattle 4-1 SU playing Dallas. ¬†Seattle has went over 7/8. ¬†I think this stays close so let’s take Seattle and tease them up to +7. ¬†Cause if Seattle is down, they can EASILY backdoor a cover with a TD in your pocket. ¬†But Seattle can also put up points through the air. ¬†Doug Baldwin gives them the NFL’s best explosive pass rate when he’s on the field (12% vs 6% when he’s not). ¬†This is also a low total, 43.5. ¬†This game can EASILY be 24-21 and hit the over.

First part of teaser: Seattle from +1 to +7 and separately the over, 43.5

Chargers just played Baltimore 2 weeks ago (hit that under, thank you). ¬†So now they have real time experience against Lamar Jackson. ¬†SD stinks at home but have only 1 loss on the road this year. ¬†5-0 SU and ATS on the road, pretty damn good. ¬†They’re also 5–0 against teams that are in the bottom 10 of pass defenses. ¬†The Browns just showed everyone how to exploit the Ravens defense. Chargers are 4-2 ATS in Baltimore. ¬†Baltimore is good at home, 4-1 ATS. ¬†And we know Phil Rivers has yet to win a big game in the playoffs. ¬†So why not stack my odds with the second half of my teaser? ¬†No way the Ravens win by more than a TD.

Chargers +8.5. 

NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail. ¬†Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks). ¬†I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver. ¬†Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.) ¬† I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them. ¬†The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning. ¬†However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit. ¬†The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover. ¬†I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter. ¬†So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets. ¬†Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai. ¬†But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland. ¬†And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy. ¬†The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show. ¬†Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace. ¬†They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe. ¬†The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet. ¬†I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under. ¬†And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score. ¬†You know who else doesn’t score? ¬†The NY football Giants. ¬†Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face. ¬†Full of holes and hard to watch. ¬†I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas. ¬†Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard. ¬†They floundered in NE and Tennessee. ¬†Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under. ¬†Houston also on the under train, 6/7. ¬†I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”. ¬†But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL. ¬†So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team? ¬†Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable. ¬†He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday. ¬†Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday. ¬†The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ. ¬†Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel. ¬†Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid. ¬†Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going¬†

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system. ¬†No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back. ¬†10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense. ¬†And Carolina is 7/10 over at home. ¬†Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year. ¬†Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers. ¬†Smell a theme? ¬†Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile. ¬†Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film. ¬†Brees on the road? ¬†Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent. ¬†A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons. ¬†Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL. ¬†But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints. ¬†They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance. ¬†And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game. ¬†

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5) 

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week. ¬†Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game. ¬†Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT. ¬†Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals. ¬†Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead. ¬†However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over. ¬†The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late. ¬†The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well. ¬†Do I go back to the well with the Jags? ¬†Read on and find out. ¬†BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me. ¬†Praying for something good to happen and it never did. ¬†Now THAT’S how you write a joke. ¬†So I’m 0-1 to start the week. ¬†Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds. ¬†Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep. ¬†And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football. ¬†You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot. ¬†Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months. ¬†Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long. ¬†My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert. ¬†So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole. ¬†Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper. ¬†The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know. ¬†Ok, another nugget. ¬†Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road. ¬†The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race. ¬†

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements? ¬†But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them. ¬†Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff. ¬†Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE. ¬†In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time. ¬†Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late. ¬†I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case. ¬†Seriously, who names their kid, Case? ¬†I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed. ¬†Wacka, wacka, wacka. ¬†The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence. ¬†I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week. ¬†I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road. ¬†Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D. ¬†

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans. ¬†Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better. ¬†Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS. ¬†And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS. ¬†But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over. ¬†Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal. ¬†The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7. ¬†So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week. ¬†Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there. ¬†This isn’t the NY Times, folks. ¬†The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home. ¬†When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21. ¬†Holy. ¬†Christ. ¬†Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO. ¬†Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss? ¬†Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN. ¬†Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG. ¬†Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets. ¬†I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it. ¬†I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover. ¬†Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times. ¬†

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ. ¬†Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again? ¬†I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45. ¬†Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this. ¬†The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

Week 8 NFL picks ATS (against the spread)

107271

 

Well, it took 5 weeks but I finally had a losing week as the Falcons shit up a 17 point lead, Fitzpatrick bails out Geno Smith (you read that right), and Minnesota got mauled in Philly.

Seattle played a marathon stinker last sunday night as the game ended in a tie of FGs. ¬†Russell Wilson is banged up but remember the last time I said that, he decimated the Jets. ¬†Whoa, whoa, whoa, stop the clock. ¬†You know who is out for Seattle? ¬†Michael Bennett AND Kam Chancellor. ¬†2 guys that would normally make Drew Brees life hell but not today. ¬†Drew Brees at home AND getting points? ¬†Here’s a stat to make you feel better: ¬†Saints are 28-8 ATS at home after a road loss. ¬†You had me at Drew Brees getting points at home

I’m taking the Saints +2

Raiders have stayed on the east coast after decimating the Jags (then again, who hasn’t? ¬†How Gus Bradley still has a job means he has a considerable amount of blackmail material against the owner). ¬†Derek Carr has been doing not as well this year but well enough to win. Stats? ¬†You got it. ¬†Oak in EST, 9-10 ATS. ¬†Ok, fine. ¬†But Oak this year is 4-0 on the road and TB is 0-4. ¬†Also, Bucs at home are 6-23 straight up, 9-20 ATS. ¬†No Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy is banged up. ¬†Oak is -1, so they just need to pretty much win outright. ¬†Both defenses stink so let’s really capitalize on this. ¬†I’m thinking this has 28-24 written all over it.

I’m taking the Raiders -1 and over 49

I’ve fallen for this several times this year and I’m sure most of you have as well. ¬†The Super Bowl hangover is real. ¬†But goddamnit, if Cam Newton stinks it up after a bye again, you can put the Panthers in the “untrustworthy” category. ¬†Arizona comes to play at 1pm on the east coast so you have that going for you…which is nice. ¬†And they ALSO played 5 quarters in that sunday night stinkaroo. ¬†Are you trusting Carson Palmer on the road? ¬†I’m not

I’m taking Carolina -3

Dallas is off the bye and home. ¬†Dallas has won games because of Elliot, their O line, and D. ¬†Dak Prescott is managing games well; sans the Niners game where he ran all over them, he’s not making huge throws. ¬†Dallas may very well win this game. ¬†BUT…Philly’s D has been shockingly great. ¬†They have some good special teams and yes, Wentz has come a little back to Earth. ¬†Eagles have won their last 3 in Dallas. ¬†And let’s talk ATS, which is nothing like ATM, you perverts. ¬†Dallas is 9 out of their last 34 ATS as a home favorite. ¬†Philly as an underdog vs Dallas is 26-9. ¬†The spread is too high, this game is going to be closer than 5 and Philly can even win outright.

I’m taking Philly +5

I haven’t had one of these in awhile but goddamnit, this is the Lock of the Week.

images

We’re back on the Tom Brady, “Fuck you” bandwagon. ¬†I’ll be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED! (Another Mad Dog reference) if Brady doesn’t run them out of their own building. ¬†First meeting this year, Pats were shut out since Michael Dukakis thought he had a chance to win the presidency. ¬†Bellichek isn’t getting swept this year. ¬†And he’s certainly not forgetting the pre-game mini brawl that took place a month ago. ¬†The line has moved up to 6 but I don’t care. ¬†McCoy is probably out, so is Watkins, and Clay is banged up. ¬†Their defense looks like the team North Texas in Necessary Roughness. ¬†Brady and the boys run them out of their own building.

I’m taking the Pats -6