Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY! When you’re hot, you’re hot. 4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week. Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks. Just saying. We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few. But I have a few in mind so here we go:
The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs. In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks. And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week? YOU’RE WELCOME. Jesus, I put out more than your moms. 2 weeks, 2 mom jokes. How much confidence do you have in Seattle? The correct answer is very little. Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust. That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole. Wow, what a deep cut. Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check. Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle. More stats? Sure. Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road. Not very awe inspiring. And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”
Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.
The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment. Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band? I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN. The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year. They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win. The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot. 11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad. And oh yeah, more fun facts. The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE. And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5. Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out. And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.
So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.
Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week. Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road. Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS. I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late. But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent. And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game. If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.
Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.
The Saints fucked me not once but twice. Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure. The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty? And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under. Shame on me for laying 16.5. The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called. Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind. The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around. Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more. Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.) Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick. Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.
The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5.
Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night. Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short. Cause my under would have been cooked. Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog. TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got. But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road. Carolina has hit the over 5/5. Panthers also 5/6 over at home. I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it. But for now, it’s just going to be…
Carolina over 46.5
Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game. One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base. Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed. Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship. BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did. They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night? The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles. But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.
Philly under 47
“Kevin, where’s Reagan?” “Kevin, is Reagan coming back this week?” Hey, did you see I went 5-3 last week? “Yeah but we want to see Reagan eat her cookie.” That was all I heard! You guys would rather see my daughter and I make cutesy-poo faces (it’s adorable) than hear my winning picks and capitalize on free money this Christmas? No wonder school test scores are down and Madea films continue to make money. Good news, you’re seeing her today as she’s feeling completely better and eating cookies faster than Roy Moore eats 15 year old asses. We’re already off to a fast start as I took Atlanta on Thursday night so that puts me in the “nice” column to start week 14.
The Tennessee Titans are insanely overrated. If you had them last week -7, you absolutely stole one for the books as Derrick Henry broke a run for a late TD that was just meant to kill the clock and cover. Now, they go to Arizona where as a home dog, they’re 24-13. AZ isn’t playing for anything but the way they’re going about business, you would think otherwise. Tenn on the road is awful, 1-4 ATS. AZ vs Tenn is 4-1.
Fly with the Cards at the free +2.5 points
Cincinatti played Pittsburgh on Monday night in a game that was uglier than watching Rebel Wilson eating. Cincy 4-0 ATS and 13-5 vs teams with losing records. The Bears are just goddamn awful and John Fox is 4 weeks away from a pink slip and shitty gold watch. The Bears are recently 1-3-1 and 4-9 on the road. They’re not going to get motivated playing for a lame duck coach. Vontaze Burfict is out for Cincy but I don’t care. I see them taking out their anger from shitting the bed on Monday on the lifeless Bears.
The Bengals eat the Bears like a tourist who jumped into their cage at the zoo, -6.5
Kansas City is back home after failing to put the dagger in the Jets. Oakland comes in after unconvincingly beating the Geno Smith led Giants. KC has the under hit 12/17 at home, 7/9 vs Oak, 17/25 vs Oak, and Oakland is 6/9 with the under on the road. And with all of that, I’m taking the over today. WHAT?? You just gave 13 stats saying under! Well, Andy Reid isn’t calling the plays and the new guy took the reins off Alex Smith and then against the Jets, they threw smoke all over the place. They have nice weather in KC today so no crazy winds. The Oakland defense is trash AND they’re getting Crabtree back. We all know how bad the Chiefs D is. And the last time these teams played, they combined for over 60.
Take the over 48 with confidence.
Carolina is home against the Vikings after going to NO and getting a spanking (just like I said.) Fun facts: Carolina is 9-2 and has 7 wins as a home dog, also recently 4-1 ATS and SU. This is the 3rd straight game for Minnesota and something’s got to give. I think this is the week they finally lose one. Khalil and Olsen are probable for Carolina as well. I know Carolina is an unimpressive 2-3-1 at home but I think they bounce back after a loss and Minnesota can afford a loss; especially coming to the tail end of a road trip.
Take Cam and the boys +2.5
Miami is getting a bushel of points, 11, home against the Patriots. I know, betting against the Patriots is suicide 9/10 times. Yes, I know the Pats are 12-0 in November or later. Here’s why I like Miami: Pats are 1-3-1 in Miami and no Gronk. I think the Pats run the ball and kill the clock. I also think the Pats may get caught looking forward to Pittsburgh next week. 11 is the perfect number to backdoor with.
Dolphins and the +11 sounds like a plan to me.
The lock of the week is a no-brainer. I’m talking a no-brainer on the scale of the scale of, “Do I eat steak or do I fuck Lena Dunham?” The Philadelphia Eagles were brought back to Earth last week in Seattle. They stayed on the West Coast this week to practice and keep their body clocks right. The Rams players are dealing with the fires ravaging their lands like hipsters ravaging their parents’ dreams of not being sniveling pussies. This is going to be the game of the day but I think Philly answers back for being held down in Seattle. And I promise you, those dirt merchant Eagles fans will take over the stadium where they have an AVERAGE home field situation.
Eagles as a pick em on the road.
3-4 last week, first losing week since week 1. Bad week but not “new Wu-Tang album: bad.
Tangent: Jesus, it’s like the Wu Tang doesn’t even try anymore. We can all admit ODB was the glue that held them together, right? Their solo works are fine but as a group; it’s like one leg of Devastor (Transformers reference. I could’ve made a Voltron reference but I have standards. Sorry, not sorry, you commoners) is missing and he moves like a kid with polio trying to dance without his braces. I know we all wish for our bands to reunite that have broken up due to death or hatred for other bandmates. Sometimes you can recapture the lightning in the bottle like Stone Temple Pilots, Alice in Chains, or Dead Kennedys. But be careful what you wish for because you can easily get Guns N Roses with Buckethead, Misfits with Jerry Only as the lead singer, Van Halen with Gary Cherone, or Motley Crue with John Corabi
Here’s why gambling is both great and willing to give you a coronary at a moment’s notice. I took the Minnesota under, 44, on monday night. What’s the score at the half? 3-2. Yep, you read that right. 30 minutes later I check again, they are 30 points in the game. WHAT?? Look again 5 minutes later, 37 total points with 10 minutes left. Jesus Christ, I could lose this game. Then Chicago and the Vikings go back doing what they do best, do their best to get their coaches fired and not score. The under hits, and your hero closes the loss margin to end the week.
This week is so chock full of huge spreads that Meredith Markovits may bust in like the Kool Aid man and start emptying trays down her horse face. Taking a favorite with a big spread is like fucking without a rubber in the dark. There are times where you catch pocket aces and get lucky with a good looking lady but more often than not; you get caught with a Lena Dunham lookalike who has a vicious case of anal warts. So buyer beware on the big spreads and you better be damn sure that you want to lay double digits. Let’s get to the picks!
My favorite team is the NY Giants and let’s call it how we see it. I’ll see more life in Terry Schaivo than I will the Giants in Denver. Let’s see who’s out: their star WR who does his best Simon Phoenix impression. Hair, not bad ass-ness. Their bi-polar WR and their slot WR. Oh yeah, the center, starting LB and DE too. And you think they’re going to come into Denver with a offense that makes the kids at an all Jewish school look like the 2000 St Louis Rams score points? I don’t. I know I just read you the riot act about taking big spreads (See, a literary curveball!) but when the obvious is right in your face like Hillary Clinton’s awful laugh, take the wallet out! The Giants aren’t scoring and if they do, it’s because Goodell implemented a mercy rule overnight. Denver is off the bye and oh yeah, 10-3-1 ATS. And Den has hit been under in 4/6 at home. Denver could run this shit up and hit the over themselves so be careful about the under. Lay the points and hope Mcadoo gets run over by the Denver Bronco horse.
I love Den -11.5 and kind of like the under at 39.
The Rams travel to the white trash venus trap known as Jacksonville. The Rams had 4 trips to the red zone last week vs Seattle to walk away with just 3 points and even had a chance to win in the last minute. I say they gain redemption as the Jags are 2-5 at home ATS. Rams are 6-2 SU in their last 8 and that bodes well as they’re getting 2.5 in Jax.
Take the Rams +2.5
The Patriots have had 10 days off to prep after they barely beat TB. And the most dangerous thing the Pats can have is time to do is prep. Oh yeah, Gronk is back too. The Jets are playing well and the Pats D is still rhino poop. I can’t figure out if the Pats are gonna cover but I can tell you that they’ll be points a plenty.
Take the Pats over 48
The Saints are back home from a bye after winning a stinkaroo in London against the Dolphins. The Saints are 5-0 ATS after a bye and won 10 straight in October. They’re 5-2 ATS vs Detroit. Stafford is a bit banged up and Detroit doesn’t put up points on the road. Don’t be a hero, just win money. This is going to be as easy as betting on Harvey Weinstein vs a plant.
Take the Saints -4.5
Lastly, the Bucs travel to play a Cardinals team who looks as uninspiring as a new Amy Schumer special. Bucs have had 10 days to prep after shitting the bed against the Pats (Again, fuck you Nick Folk) to play a Cardinals team that’s 1-5 ATS at home. Winston and the boys look to avenge the beating they got last year in the desert so look for redemption.
Take the Bucs -1.5
It’s amazing what a changes in a week. I started out this NFL season 0-5 with the picks. Last week, 6-1. The only loss was my lock of the week, of course. Seattle BARELY beat an awful Niners team but didn’t cover. The other big spread was Oak vs Jets and the Raiders gave the Jets the old East Rutherford chicken cutlet. It’s been a weird season thus far. Giants and the Jets are a bad 0-2 while the Chargers are a good 0-2, as they missed 2 kicks which EASILY puts them at 1-1 and probably 2-0.
I started out this week 0-1 as I along with 2328975902357 other people took the under in the Rams/Niners Thursday night game. They had 21 points in the first quarter and ended up dropping 70 fucking points??!!!! When was the last time TNF had an over, let alone a blowout? Thankfully, I didn’t lay the load on that. Onto the picks and hopefully more…FREEEEE MONEY!
The Pats were an easy pick for me last week but this week, 14 is a shit ton of points. Can they win by 14? Probably but since my asshole bookie doesn’t take money lines, I’m not touching that. But the over 44 gets me tumescent. Some stats why I like this pick: Over has hit for NE 5/5, 4/5 at home, 7/9 when the Pats play the Texans, and 4/5 when the Pats play Houston at home. Gronk and Amendola are both a go. NE doesn’t have a great d anymore so the Texans can put up easily 14 points. And we know Houston D isn’t what it was because Jax gashed them. Pats probably cover but I’m taking
Pats Over 44
I’d rather have the Carolina Tar Heels on offense than the Carolina Panthers. Panthers have 32 points in 2 games, nothing special. But they do have a defense that’s as forgiving as the bank on a late mortgage payment. Who comes into town this week? One of the worst road teams in the last 10 years, the New Orleans Saints. I trust M Night Shamalayan to make a good film before I trust the Saints on the road. The Saints are now getting 5.5 points. But the Saints defense is hot horseshit. Can the Saints put bust through that defensive wall to point up points? But can Carolina, sans Greg Olsen, cover against the spread? I have no idea but we do have another option. Some stats for you to swish around in your mouth and spit into a bucket: Saints under hit 11/14 in Carolina. Carolina under has hit the last 5/6 and at home, under has hit 4/5. Hence why I REALLY LIKE:
The under 46.5
The NFL goes back to merry old London and the Jaguars are the NFL de facto home team over there. Drawing the short straw and playing them are the Baltimore Ravens. And “lucky” for everyone watching at home, the only way to watch this game is via stream. Way to go CBS, as if you don’t jam enough commercials down our throats during the game, you’re not going to air something so I can eat some Cinnamon Toast Crunch while my daughter looks up from the iPad and yells out, “Daddy, ball! Daddy, juice*” *Denotes beer. Normally, I would be all over the under but 39 allows for very little wriggle room, as last thursday night’s debacle proved. But Jax getting demolished last week and Bal being 2-0 AND sandwiched in between division games is going to make a case for me this week. Balt is 2-6 on the road ATS and 1-5 while playing Jax. Balt is 1-3-1 when playing on the road against Jax. But I think this can be the biggest “home” game for Jax as this is their 5th straight game in London. They’re used to the surroundings, have down their routines, etc. And they’re getting 3 points? AND the numbers back me up? You won’t hear me say this often but
Give me the Jags +3
Denver is playing in Buffalo. Both have great defenses and so-so offenses. Denver has gone under 5/7 on the road. Other numbers show the over is the play but they go back 6 or 7 games which puts this several years back. You know, when Denver had a offense. Buffalo this year has combined for 24 points. Denver has put up points but I don’t see that happening against a good defense and at 1pm. Listening to my gut and my eyes, despite little wriggle room.
Denver under 39
I cannot believe I’m caring about this game but when the numbers support it, I have no choice. The Browns are a road FAVORITE for the first time in 2 years. Either the bookies know something we don’t but the Browns giving points to ANYONE should be flagged. I don’t see this line staying at Cle -1 but if you can get it before it becomes a pick em, do it. Indy is 7-1 SU against the Browns and the Browns are 0-4-1 on the road. But again, I’m not trusting either teams. I’m trusting these numbers: Cleveland has gone under 5/6 vs Indy. Indy is 5/5 at home with the under and 4 out of their last 6 have been under. This game is more under than Crocodile Dundee. Wacka, Wacka, Wacka. (Shoots self in the face)
Take the under 42.5
The sharps are all OVER the Bengals. They LOVE how they fired their offensive coordinator. I was recently in Cincinnati, the only thing to love about that town is the Reds ballpark followed by leaving that town. I’m SHOCKED that the sharps love the Bengals so much that the line has dropped from 9 to 7.5. Did they miss Jordy Nelson practiced in full? Did they see the Packers get smoked sunday night? Hope you had the over like I told you to. Do you think GB is going to rebound, at home where they’re 5-0 ATS? I do. GB 8-3 ATS while Cincy is 2-5-1 on the road. Cincy also 6-12-2 ATS in their last 20. Head to head numbers? GB 5-2 ATS vs Cincy. Will Cincy get it together? Maybe. But not this week. Death, taxes, and GB at home.
GB takes a skyline chili influenced dump on Cincy and covers -7.5
Arizona came back to win but not cover against Indy. I hope you had Indy like I told you to. I think they’re home with a good D and Dallas D getting gashed by Denver equals an AZ cover but go heavier on the under. Want a good laugh? Watch Ezekiel try and tackle. MANIACAL LAUGH. Dal is 2-7 in their last 9 ATS. Dallas went under 11/14 on the road. AZ 4-1 ATS vs Dal and 4-2 at home when playing Dallas. The under has hit 4/6 times when these 2 square off. AZ has had the under hit 9/12 at home. Tons of numbers to back my predictions of:
AZ +3 and under 47.
The lock of the week can also be also said as such: Death, taxes, and never Pitt on the road. 7.5 is a lot but I’m not ready to trust Mike Glennon. Yes, Jordan Howard is playing and practiced in full on friday. But Pitt has a great defense. And oh yeah, Mike Glennon. I don’t see the Bears putting up points and I don’t see Pitt lighting up the scoreboard either. Which is why I’m going with yet again,
The under 44
Some quick hits for other games I MAY take, depending how I do
KC and SD over, the Jets +6, and Oak -3
Last week, 6-1
This week 0-1 (Rams under)
4-2 last week and the bookie felt my WRATH! I took Dallas on Thursday night -3 and NOTHING worse when you bet a team you hate wins but doesn’t cover. Fuck Dallas and fuck all those bandwagon fans who have emerged from the woodwork.
I know I’m posting this at 4:10 but I posted a video of my picks but allow me to reiterate what I’ve selected.
The Patriots are banged up. Gronk will have to wait to dance shirtless again until a few months. Brady is a little banged up. But who’s kidding who? The Rams are trash, especially on the road. Pats are back home and they haven’t beaten a team an inch within their life today. 13.5 is a lot of points so that’s why…
I’m taking the under 44
Green Bay showed us something. They showed me that I shouldn’t take the dirtbag, white trash Eagles against them. So who comes into GB this weekend? A blizzard. And oh yeah, Brock Osweiller. Yuck. I’d rather have Brock Lesnar. Aaron Rodgers owns December. And Brock Osweiller is the biggest mistake in Houston made since letting Carlos Beltran walk. Osweiller stinks in 74 degrees in a dome, what do you think he’s gonna do in a blizzard at GB. So I’m taking:
Green Bay -6.5 and the under 45.
The Bears are goddamn awful. Matt Barkley is their QB now that the Jay “Ballerina” Cutler is out. I’d rather have either Barkley the dog from Sesame Street or Charles Barkley as my QB. So is Colin Kapernick comes into town with his Oscar Gamble ‘fro. You know what else comes into town? Another blizzard. I’ll take the weather against a 3rd stringer any day of the week.
I’m taking the under 43.5
The Saints opened at -5, it go to -7 by kickoff. The public bought into the Saints hook, line, and seeker after they demolished the hapless Rams. Does that mean I’m onto the Saints because they are home? Nope. Lions are not wilting like they’ve been known to for the last 20 years. This D is good and 7 is wayyyy too many points.
I’m taking the Lions +7
The Raiders are amazing but not at home. Buffalo has been able to put up points and the Oakland D is still suspect. LeSean McCoy should have a field day today. Oakland obviously puts up points. I meant to take the over 49 but I fucked my text up so apparently, I now have…
Bills +3. Hopefully I don’t get screwed but feel free to take the over, lord knows I wanted to.
And here’s my lock of the week:
I don’t care that TB shut down the Seattle offense. I do care that TB stinks ATS. I also care that the SD D can’t stop Honey Boo Boo and her white trash consortium. Timely reference…if this was 2010 but who cares, you get the gist. Here’s what I do care about: The last 5 times TB has played SD, they hit the over. The last 5 games SD has played, they hit the over 4/5 times. I’m a man of averages so…
I’m taking the Chargers over 49 points.
I feel like Tony Montana after he had that Mt Rainier of cocaine on his desk. I feel like Eli Manning after he threw the fade to Plaxico in the first Super Bowl against the cheating, shitbag Pats. I feel like Eli Manning when he perfectly dropped that ball in Mario Manningham’s basket in the 2nd Superbowl on his way to beating the cheating, shitbag Pats in the second Superbowl. I feel like Derek Jeter after the flip play against the A’s in 2001. I am KILLING it with the picks. 6-1 last week and 2-0 on Thanksgiving. Not a bad way to enjoy the holiday. Now if I could only get my hands on a NES classic or 4 so I can sell them for 200 bucks on Ebay. Let’s talk picks:
Already hit Pitt -8 and Wash +7
San Diego does nothing but put up points. San Diego does nothing but give up points. Houston is home after getting screwed on monday night (Well, not according to me. I had Oak -6.5 monday night so I felt just fine, thank you.) I think both teams can easily put up in the 20’s making this an easy pick.
I’m taking SD over 46.5
Baltimore has a top 10 defense. Cincinnatti has lost AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard which is 86% of their offense. I pulled that number out of my ass but honestly, you would’ve bought that. Baltimore is due for a win, they’re at home, and a wounded tiger may be quite dangerous but not when it’s missing 2 legs.
I’m taking the Ravens -3.5
Trusting Atlanta to cover is like accepting a condom from a pledge in a fraternity. You know the fucker poked holes in them so you really can’t trust them. But I’m not trusting the Falcon’s defense to hold anyone. I’m trusting both teams to score points. Atl off a bye and AZ can score against that putrid D. Atl stink ATS at home so that’s why I’m shying away from ATL -6. So…
I’m taking ATL over 50.5
The Pats are human. They pushed with the Niners and Seattle gashed their D. This team obviously is in the hands of Tom Brady. Did I mention he has a gimpy knee? It’s probably from when Giselle kicked him after he kept pulling away carrots and sugar cubes from her. Boom! Gronk is in but also banged up. Let’s add that with the Jets do play them tight at home. I know, trust Ryan Fitzpatrick? Fucking crazy, I get it. But the number is right and the Pats are susceptible now
The Packers are done, mentally and physically. Aaron Rodgers isn’t the same. Their secondary is worse than any Wes Anderson film. That’s right, I said it. That man is horrifically overrated and the hipsters place him in dead center of their alter. The Eagles are undefeated ATS at home and after a thorough beating in Seattle and if Doug Pederson stops going for it on 4th down, they’ll cover this one easily.
I’m taking Philly -3