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Unreal. We’ve just turned out clocks back and as I typed out, “week 9”, I realize how time does indeed fly. Remember how getting to your birthday, summer vacation, or losing your virginity seemed to take a lifetime? Fuck, we’re now halfway through the NFL season. It was only 2 months ago that my buddy and I were hopping around like idiots in Vegas where your boy went 7-1 opening weekend. Last week, I righted the ship and went 5-3, bringing me to a robust 35-24 and more importantly to 59%. Jesus Christ, that’s spectacular! I hit the Colts, Skins, Pitt Over, Seattle, and the Packers as the lock of the week. Lost the Bengals as they blew a 17 point lead late after Fitzpatrick and his beekeeper beard returned to action and backdoored that game. I called the Saints winning outright, wish I took them instead of the over. The Saints over was ahead of pace at halftime but Minnesota couldn’t do dick in the second half, leaving me 4 points shy of the over. And the Niners ALSO blew a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter against Arizona. As we know, the best laid plans…
Week NAWWWNE started off with a clunker for me as every sharp better jumped on Oakland +3 when Beathard was announced as questionable on Wednesday. As the line went down to Oakland -1 when Beathard was ruled out, you can figure out who started to plan on spending that sweet, sweet, freeeee money. And then a pesky little thing called, “the game” occurred. That’s where Nick Mullen sliced and diced through that putrid Oakland defense like he was Peyton Manning in 2006. Hell, Mullen didn’t throw his FIRST incompletion until late in the first quarter. SF ends up blowing out the Raiders and you’ll be lucky to find someone this year to put cash on them this year, even if it’s against a bunch of bearded hipsters wearing skinny jeans with Lena Dunham as the quarterback. The way the Raiders defense has been playing, she could do a 5 step drop back, tweet how white men are the worst, and find a “male feminist” open on a crossing route.
So 0-1 to start this week, let’s pick some winners!
Lock of the week:
Pitt 4-1, 6-3 ATS on road and 8-0-1 SU. Baltimore got smoked in Carolina and hasn’t had their bye yet, they’re looking TIRED. I love taking divisional teams as dogs as they know each other well and Pitt will be looking for revenge after the first matchup showed them to the loss column. The Steelers run D is morning boner solid, 5 total TDs to RBs this year
Pitt +3, now +2.5
Minnesota is back after losing to the Saints and now they get Detroit. And if you’re the Lions, you’ve traded away a guy who caught 70% of his targets. You’re playing a top 10 scoring defense and 6th against the pass rush. Oh, the Vikings also have the 5th best red zone defense I’d rather back Donald Trump at a Menudo concert than back the Lions this week. Explain this line: If Detroit played this game at home, it would be Detroit +1? Minn needs the game, is at home where they’re 16-7-1. Adam Thielen doesn’t fumble, that’s a completely different game Detroit giving up 5.5 ypc and 2nd most rushing yds in NFL, nahhhhhh
Take the Vikes and their stupid SKOL chant -5.5
My favorite game show as a kid was the Price is Right. And boy, the price is right here. Denver trades away it’s number 1 WR…TO THE TEAM THEY’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND? Houston is red hot and the Broncos have cracked 20 points ONCE this year. Houston with 10 days off and Lamar Miller is running like he’s leaving Honduras behind. 2 100 yd games in back to back weeks sounds and now against the 28th ranked run defense a good enough reason for me. Bonus reason: oh yeah, how about a run heavy team (Denver) going against the best run defense in the league (Texans).
I have no idea why the line is a pick em but I got Houston in this week. And if I waited a day, I could’ve had them +1.
Cleveland has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator. At home against the white hot Chiefs, oh boy. Cold hard fact: When a home dog is 8 ore more, the under is 21/23. 18, 23, 14, and 12. Those are Cleveland’s last 4 games worth of points. Yes, we know KC puts up points. But will Cle put up their share, especially under new coaching? I say no.
Quick and easy pick: Cleveland under 51.5
Tennessee has a top 10 defense and Dallas can’t score, except their fans score insanely high on the BMI and diabetic scores. Seriously, how many skinny Dallas fans do you know? That aren’t on drugs. Or homeless. Tennessee hasn’t allowed a RB over 80 yards and Zeke is the key to that offense. Does Dak Prescott scare you? As much as Ernest P Worrell did. Dallas can win by a FG but that’s not the spread.
Take the Titans +5. I can never pick them right but I think I figured them out for this week.
Bills stink and the Bears aren’t putting up points against the Bills defense. Low number, I know. But this game has 20-6 written all over it.
Bills under 38.5
Games I like and may take, depending on the number.
Saints with an impressive win in Minn (I called it, you’re welcome) against the undefeated Rams. Rams are 1-3-1 ATS and Saints are 5-0 ATS and SU. 10-1 SU at home. Rams aren’t covering and I think the Saints eek it out in a shootout.
Saints at home and getting 2? Boy, I’m waiting to see if I can get to 3 but still like +2
Tampa goes into Carolina where they’re killing it SU. But against divisional opponents and the Panthers are -6 or more, they’re 0-5. Fitzpatrick may be down but with that offense, they can backdoor it easily. You see that commercial with JB Smoove? It shows McCaffrey has some real acting chops. He really convinced me like he understood what the hell JB was saying. JB Smoove sounds like the black Swedish Chef.
Wait and see if it gets to 7 but TB +6.5 could be the play.
It’s supposed to rain in Seattle, duh. But Seattle is a heavy rushing offense. Melvin Gordon is back for the Chargers so that gets them in the running spirit as well. Chargers have gone under 6/9 on the road. Seattle has gone under 5/6 and under 4/5 at home vs the Chargers.
Seahawks under 47.5
Aaron Rodgers stinks on the road, he’s below 50% ATS. Pats are back home and firing on all cylinders. Sony Michel looks like he’s going to play. And one of the worst names ever, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, just got traded. He’s the best defensive player on an awful defense. Where was DYFUS for an intervention on that name selection? Pack 1-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 SU. Pats 4-1 of late, 9-3 ATS at home. If it’s 7, you take the Pack. But anything less, it’s an easy call for cry baby Brady and his tubby Unabomber coach.
The day all eyes (except communists) are turned to the TV, Superbowl Sunday! Denver! Carolina! Cam and the race baiters vs Peyton and the feel good karma. What say you? Before we get to the picks, I wanted to say that I created a damn good video (with my daughter) that refuses to upload so you get the article instead. Thanks Obama.
Carolina -5.5 over/under 44
A little breakdown, why not? Carolina has the MVP Cam Newton, Greg (the leg, look it up ladies and alternative lifestyle living men) Olsen, and Jonathan Olsen on offense. Luke Keuchly and Josh Norman head up a ball hawk defense that pull in more sixes than my buddies do during a night out at the bar. Denver has old man Manning (great name for a Scooby Doo villain), Denaryius Thomas and his jailbird mother, Aqib Talib, and Danny Trevathan head up the #1 defense in the NFL.
The early money was on Carolina, driving it from an opening line of -3.5 up to 6. The public drove that line up faster than Hillary Clinton polarizes an audience. The whales that fly into Vegas the night before started to dump money on the Broncos, dropping it to down to 5, and now it went back up to 5.5 The over/under opened at 45.5 and now it’s dropped down to 44. Translation: everyone thinks this will be a low scoring event. Now, if you think Carolina is going to win, it will be in a blowout fashion with the over easily achieved. If you think Denver is going to win, you probably think it will be a 21-17 type game. What’s my pick???
Denver +5.5
I know, I was huge on Carolina after they dismantled my Super Bowl pick, the Cardinals. Here’s why I’m going with Denver.
A) EVERYONE will want Denver to win; it’s the quintessential feel good story. Peyton’s done, let him go out on the highest note…unless you’re watching the games at home and you’re sick of those goddamn Nationwide/Papa John’s commercials and hoping Peyton gets runs over by a driver with no insurance while eating that awful pizza.
B) The weather is currently 63 degrees which helps Peyton immensely. But Kevin, he played in 50 degree weather against the Seahawks 2 years ago in the Superbowl. Yeah but the Carolina D is not the Seahawks team from 2 years ago.
C) The Broncos are looking to grind out the clock and that’s what they did against the Pats. They can’t keep up in a shootout so look for a lot of running and quick passes.
D) Carolina is notorious for putting up big leads but then giving up the late back door cover. If Denver does go down by a lot quickly, Carolina will go into soft coverage and probably let some points score. And remember, Denver doesn’t have to win, just cover.
E) And I saved my best point for last: Carolina has ALREADY planned their victory parade. The kiss of death…only bad things can happen when you do that.
I’m still scratching my head with the over/under and I haven’t put a wager down yet or may not even do so. I’m waiting for the line to move BUT if I had to pick one now, I’m taking…
The over 44
Superbowls are primarily overs and I think more points will be scored, more like 24-21. There is LITTLE room for the under and I haven’t seen many recent superbowls, sans my NY Giants vs the Pats, where the under hits.
Prop bets
Number of times Kevin refills his beverage when Coldplay is playing
3.5
OVER
Number of times Kevin yells at the TV, “HOW THE FUCK IS COLDPLAY DOING THE HALFTIME SHOW! I DON’T KNOW ANYONE WHO OWNS ONE OF THEIR ALBUMS?”
19
OVER
Number of times Kevin wonders aloud why Beyonce married Jay Z when she has plenty of her own money yet her husband looks like a sad catfish.
3
Under, I’m just restating the obvious
Number of minutes Kevin watches the halftime show
5
Under. I’d rather spend time openly mocking my friend who is a Cowboys fan.
Kevin Gootee 