Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

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3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

Week 1 NFL picks ATS

Can you smell it? It’s not what the Rock is cooking, it’s FREEEEEEE money! And you better believe I’m excited to get started on my second income season. 62% ATS last year so let’s pick up right where we left off. And if you want to follow my team totals for the year, here there are:

Eagles under 9.5

Lions over 7

Jets under 6

I thought I put in the Giants under 6 but apparently, I didn’t.

Bears under 8

Falcons over 7.5

Thursday night was opening kickoff and the Cookie Monster and I teased the Chiefs down to 3 and the over down to 48.5. Thank god I teased the over down as you would’ve lost by .5 So 1-0 to start the season, here we go:

The Seahawks have started off slow BIG time in recent years: see last year when I had them in a teaser down to -3 at home against the Bengals…and THEY DIDN’T COVER. Just did some research and yep, Sea 0-4-1 ATS in week 1 games. Oh yeah, the offensive and d lines for Seat lost a lot of people this off season. And they fly cross country, with masks on due to covid, and play a 1pm (10a west coast). Sea 1-4 ATS in last 6 and 1-4 against ATL. Matt Ryan 5-2 against Pete Caroll, rating over 100. 16 TDs 4 INTs is 6/8 and last 4. Top 5 offense at home. ATL 4-1 ATS and SU in last 5. 6-2 vs NFC and 10-2 vs NFC west. Falcons are getting 2.5 at home? Sign me up…for another teaser! Give me the Falcons plus 8.5 at home and with all the stats in the world backing up the Falcons? Even if they’re down by double digits late (I think they can even win), 8.5 is EASILY backdoor able. I just made that word up unless Sam Champion and Mike Piazza already coined it. So what else to tease it with…

The New York Squatters are going to be bad this year. No one on offense scares you and they traded away Jamal Adams to Seattle. They’re going up to Buffalo and off the bat, the Jets are 4-16 SU on road. 3-10 ATS against AFC east, 0-6 SU in September. Bills 4-2 ATS in september, 11-4 ATS week 1, 10-5 SU on sundays, and 8-1 SU in last 9 as favorite. This game is going to be a snoozer and as much as the Jets want retribution, they’re not going to find it in the land of fans who jump through tables and awful accents.. Second half of the teaser, Bills -.5 so a pick em.

The Rams open up their new stadium to no one in particular. However, the Rams start off on FIRE. McVay in season openers 3-0, averaging 36 points. Dallas 7 INTS last year, not getting much pressure on the QB to make bad decisions. Rams are 13-6-1 ATS, 12-4 SU in last 16 at home, 12-3-1 against NFC. 8-1 SU in september, 4-1 ATS in week 1. Wow. New coach for Dallas as well so unfamiliairty added to those stats equals a problem for Dallas. Dallas 4-2 SU and ATS against the rams. BUT 2-5 SU on the road and 1-4 against NFC west. I like the Rams at +3 but you know what’s even better? The Rams +9! And what shall I tease it with? Perhaps another near lock, the over. Dallas has gone over in 13/19, 5/6 over against the Rams, 6/7 vs NFC, Rams 4/6 over, 5/6 home over against Dal, 5/6 over against NFC East.

Arizona 4-0-1 ATS against SF, 4-1 SU in SF, 8-2 SU of their last 10. You might be saying those are some key stats. And would you look at that, Arizona is getting 8? But wow, that’s -140 to take Az! Orrrrrrr, you could do what I did and that’s take Arizona to +13 IN ANOTHER TEASER. And that’s how you avoid the higher vigs on a game you like, tease it and another game you like to get to the usual -110. Arizona covers a ton against SF plus SF with no real WR. Deebo Samuel is a question mark as is Aiyuk. The only pass catcher is Kittle and then they have their running game. Bad air quality also due to California fires and homeless peoples’ shit on the sidewalks keeps this thing within 2 scores.

Who to tease this game with? Easy one. I’ve loved this game since the schedule was announced. My NY Giants have a rookie head coach and a shaky o line and defense. Pittsburgh comes to town with a healthy Rothliesberger and solid defense. In what world do the Giants win, let alone cover, with no training camp games nor a rookie head coach with zero HC experience against Tomlin who runs a well oiled machine sans the playoffs? Pitt 4-2 SU against Giants and 4-2 SU in NY. Pitt 7-1 ATS against NFC. Giants 4-2 ATS in last 6 but 2-10 SU in last 12 and 1-5 ATS at home. Also 1-5 SU agains AFC. Second half of teaser, Pitt teased down to pick em.

New Orleans in an empty dome is a welcome sign for visitors. And would you look at that; everyone’s newest darling comes a knocking, Brady and the Bucs. You think Brady ever snuck Giselle down to the 50 yard line, had his way with her while making neighing sounds while yelling “giddyup” in every stadium he played? TB has gone over 12/14, 6/7 on the road over, 10/10 over vs NFC. Over 4/5 playing each other. Saints over 5/7 in NFC south as well as 12/18 in NO in September. Mike Evans is questionable going into this game but even in the rare case he doesn’t go, they still have a ton of weapons. Kamara got his extension so he’ll be running with $ falling out of his pocket. It’s week 1 and Brees’s last hurray, plus his arm hasn’t turned to wet fettuccine yet so get ready for points. And I got the total at 48.5, anything below 50 with these two going at it is a fucking blue light special bargain. Saints over 48.5

Super Bowl bets and props!

Tis everyone’s favorite time of year for betting and also the saddest as it’s the end of football.

Not burying the lead so let’s get past the date and head right to the sex in the car at a Chili’s parking lot.

Chiefs -1

Rule 1 when handicapping.  Who has the better QB and head coach?  Chiefs have both.  Here’s another X factor: Sometimes it’s just someone’s time.  Unfortunately, it was just Philly’s time 2 years ago.  Andy Reid has been the bridesmaid a ton of times and never the bride.  I think this is his time.  Can you imagine that feast he’s going to indulge in after a SB win?  He’s going to give Kobayashi and Rebel Wilson a real run for their money.  We all know the Chiefs weakness is their running game BUT in the past few weeks in the playoffs, they’ve shored up their D.  4.3 YPC allowed by KC D which is above average in the NFL.  Derrick Henry didn’t have a rush above 13 yds when they played them 2 weeks ago.  To be fair, that was the 3rd straight week of Henry getting over 30 carries in a game.  He lit up the first half against the Chiefs but was silent for the next 3 quarters.  Surprisingly of late, the Chiefs D has allowed 18 PPG and the Niners allowed 24 PPG.  Niners have also allowed 26.5 PPG in 9 games, ranking them 24th.

We all know Reid after the bye is numero uno.  You know what else is numero uno?  Andy Reid ATS 19-9 ATS and 23-5 SU after the bye.  KC 8-0 SU as well as ATS in a row and of those 8 in a row, they won by at least 7 ppg.  Larger sample size?   14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS.  Mahomes 22-11-2 ATS and 17-11-2 ATS as a favorite.  We all know the Niners play a zone D and how does Maholmes fare against it?  91 QBR…BEST in the NFL.  Super Bowl favorites are 33-19 SU.  Dogs have been ruling of late, 13-5 ATS.  However, since this is a 1 point game, go with the SU numbers.  The SU winner of the SB is 44-6-3 ATS and the underdog has NEVER covered a spread with a line <6.  Higher playoffs seed is 2-13-2 ATS.  Team with the better record of late is 9/10 in the Superbowl.  Niners had 13 wins, Chiefs had 12 wins.  Niners are 3-15 ATS after 2 consecutive ATS wins.

Bottom line is this.  If the Chiefs O Line holds up against a solid Niners pass rush, the Niners are dead.  If he gets out of the pocket, he’s taking off or catching Hill or Hardman on a busted coverage play.  Niners MUST run this ball and take time off the clock to win this game.  I don’t think if they’re down 10 or more that they can come back with Garappolo.  And we know the Chiefs can rally from down a bushel of points.  This isn’t an easy game to call but I’m on the Chiefs for all the reasons and stats above.

Prop bets? Got em.

Tails…never fails.  Just been lucky with it the last several years.

Under 2.5 players that attempt a pass.  I just don’t see either teams’ punters getting cute; especially when Colquitt had issues successfully punting.

Kittle Over 75.5 receiving yds.  Was quiet last week against GB only because they could run the ball down their throats better than Paris Hilton took it down her throat in Predator night vision.

Maholmes over 36.5 rushing yds.  Ran for over 50 in the last 2 games and now faces a zone defense?  Heidy-ho!

I never take props like these but I heard it was in and Vegas is steaming (everyone jumping on it) but PURPLE is the color of the Gatorade in honor of Kobe Bryant.  It went from +600 to -160 so yeah, why not?

More scoring in 2nd half than the 1st half -145

3rd quarter more scoring than 1st quarter. -150

Why?  And why the heavy juice? Chiefs are notoriously slow starters.  Halftime is obviously longer than usual plus teams love to take the governor off and let loose.  Kind of like a bunch of dudes at the Jim McGreevey rest stop, heigh ho!

Good luck and let’s end this season with even more FREEEEEE MONEY!