NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 9 ATS bets

I’m retiring that Scrooge McDuck bank vault dive because every time I use it, I get smoked. 2-5 last week, bringing me down to 27-22 and 55% for the year. That’s the lowest I’ve been in 3 seasons, yeeeesh. But oh golly, I feel hot today (Caddyshack quote for you those who know the film better than you know your spouses) So the photo this week is a great way to announce Gutting the Sacred Cow LIVE podcast tickets are now on sale! https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

LOVE Arizona now -5.5. I locked in yesterday at 4pm and the line jumped 2 FULL POINTS. Talk about closing line value. You mean to tell me Tua who just had a 3 yd TD pass is just a 5.5 point dog? The special teams, defense, and 1 yd TD run was the rest of the offense for the Dolphins. You have to throw out all recent stats with Miami (5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 SU, 9-3 SU vs AZ) as they’re a completely new team with Tua. Bona of late 5-2 ATS

Arizona -3.5 but I still like it for -5.5, both need win by more than a FG

One of the few winners I had last week was the Steelers getting 10.5 in Baltimore as part of a teaser. We saw the Jackson had a hard time throwing it because the Steelers took them out of the running game. And of course, the Ravens can run over everyone. I also know that when Leonard plays for the Colts, they’re something like 5-1 ATS. This is strictly a bounce back game for the Ravens as they’re 12-5-1 of last 18 and 17-3 SU of 20. Bal 9-0 SU on the road. Colts are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU and playing well. But guess what? Sharps pounded Indy so now it’s Bal +1.5 and I said let’s make that even safer…

Teased Baltimore +7.5

Who to tease with? Well, I should’ve bought out of the Raiders bet against Cle. Raiders are playing the Charges who have blown THREE 17 point leads this year. In LA but who gives a shit? Vegas is 6-3 ATS of late and 5-1 ATS on the road. Chargers are 4-2 of late but 1-5 SU of late and 1-4 SU at home. But again, let’s give us some wiggle room…

Raiders +7.5 second leg of the Bal teaser

Sam Darnold is doubtful but honestly, would it matter? Jets are 1-7 ATS of late, 0-8 SU, 1-4 SU at home, 1-5 SU home vs NE. And Joe Flacco is playing? Wow. I know know the Pats have been awful of late, 3-6 ATS and 1-5 of late. But man, you think Bellichick is losing to the Jets? On Monday night? After 3 straight losses? I don’t. But again’ let’s be safe and..

Tease the Pats to -1.5 and Sea over 48.5 as the second leg of the teaser.

Buffalo Over in 6/8, 4/5 against AFC east. Bills over 6/8, 9/9 vs Seattle, and 6/6 over vs NFC West. Seattle over 6/8 and 4/5 vs AFC.

Russ is something like 14-7 ATS on the east coast for 1pm games. Buffalo defense has been awful of late. All but 2 of their games (1 against the Jets) they’ve given up 20 points or more. And they gave up 21 to a shitty Pats team in the rain last weekend. Seattle’s high octane offense can easily gash this trash bag defense. Seattle 5-2 of late, 6-1 SU. Sea 10-3 SU on the road and Sea 5-0 ATS in November. Bills 1-4 ATS of late, 2-4 ATS at home. Laying a FG on the road with Russ and no real RB= a lot of chunk plays for big yards. BTW, Russ is -150 to win MVP this year. Who would’ve thought a guy who has a virgin until he met Ciara was capable of this (pun intended) explosion. Looks like him and AC Green have a lot to talk about…

Seattle -3

Drew Lock was impressive last week and now he gets to play in a dome against the worst pass defenses? Den 5-2 ATS, 7-3 SU against ATL, more importantly 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 SU in ATL. No Calvin Ridley either for the Falcons. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in November. ATL 2-4 ATS and 2-6 SU, 1-14 vs AFC. This makes a quick and easy 1st leg of a teaser.

Denver +10.5 and teasing AZ to +.5

Week 8 NFL against the spread picks sports betting

Back in the money, WOO-HOO! And we’re back on the winning train, 5-3 last week which brings me to a total of 25-17 and back to 60% Week 8, here we go.

I took Carolina on Thursday night which will count for this week’s total so a rip roaring 0-1 start to this week. Now we’re going to focus on the winning picks.

Green Bay is 2nd in PPG and rolled last week against the Texans (had that one last week so you’re welcome) Vikings just traded one of their top defensive players to the Ravens. And when you trade one of your best player away from an already shitty defense, you’re in deep trouble. Packers are 10th in rushing, Vikings are 22nd in rush defense. Why do I bring that up? Because it’s going to be windy as all hell there tomorrow. Packers can run the ball but so can the Vikings. Vikings have the 29th worst pass defense so when the Packers need to throw it, they can. Vikings gave up 40 points to the deadbeat Falcons defense. I think Green Bay does the job and handles Kirk Cousins with ease. Numbers to back up my argument unlike some of my friends that make picks online? Here we go: Vikings are 1-4 ATS against GB, 3-8 ATS in GB. Vikes are 1-5 SU this year. GB 5-1 ATS, 8-0 SU at home.

Now, wake up tomorrow and check the weather. If it’s as windy as they say it is, play the under. And here’s why: 9/12 GB/Minnesota games have gone under, 9/11 under in NFC north, GB 6/7 under in November, Minn 4/5 under on the road, Minn 7/10 under vs NFC north.

LOVE GB -6 and under 49.5, which you can tease to 54.5 with something else

I know people are trying to harness lightning in a bottle again by picking the Raiders when they’re underdogs. Yes, the Browns lost OBJ but as how many receiving TDs did he have this year? 3. Did he have 100 yard game this year? No, 81 yds is his high for the year. So let’s be honest, as Mike Francesa says, he’s just become a shadow of himself and only a name. Not the high rd draft pick some of you thought he was. What do the Raiders do? Besides have their fans pretend it’s Halloween ever day without ever getting the metaphorical treat being a trophy? They sure don’t stop the run, allowing 4.9 a carry. It’s supposed to be windy here; thus helping out Hunt and Josh Jacobs. Vegas is 2-7-1 against Cle and most of those games are when the Browns were the WORST team in the NFL, not with their current talent level. Vegas 4-8 SU in last 12 as well. Cle 5-1 SU of late and 7-1 SU at home. The number is PERFECT and if it got to three, I could completely see taking the Raiders. But as of Sat night, it’s 2.5 and I grabbed it to avoid the sharps possibly pounding it to 3 or higher.

Browns -2.5 and also, check the winds in Cleveland. You may want to go under 49 as it has dropped from 53 already…

Explain this to me: why is it every year when the Steelers play Baltimore, the line is always 3, no matter then venue. Now the Steelers are getting 4.5 in Baltimore. That’s just ludicrous, just as insane as saying you enjoy Napoleon Dynamite. Yeah, we had to watch that film for Gutting the Sacred Cow. That film is pure trash and anyone who thinks otherwise, is wrong. Back to the Steelers. So they’re undefeated and the Ravens have a loss PLUS almost blew a lead to Philly. Please explain why you’re going to give more than 3 points to the top run defense in the league to a team who runs damn near 65% of the time. More numbers, sure: Pitt 5-1 ATS of late, 6-0 SU. Pitt 2-6-1 is against Bal BUT at least 2 of those losses were last year with no Ben Rothleisberger. Bal of late, 12-4-1, 17-2 SU, and 5-0 ATS against AFC North. Great numbers so I’m going to give one better number.

Tease Pitt to +10.5, there’s damn near an impossible chance the Steelers lose by more than a TD IF they lose.

Second team to tease that with…Cincinatti Bengals are playing the Titans who just lost their first game because Stephen Gostkowski is trying a hybrid impression of Scott Norwood and Ray Finkle. But as we know Tennessee can put up points: Over 4/5 of late and 10/15 against AFC. Slingin’ Joe Burrow is backdooring more teams than anyone at a truck rest stop. He’s 2nd in the league in pass plays but They’re 5-1 ATS of late but also over in 8/11 and 4/5 over at home. But the Bengals are banged up on the offensive line. I think the Bengals put up enough points but the Titans take out their frustrations on a putrid Bengals defense.

2nd half of the teaser Titans over 47.5 and feel free to tease the Titans down to -1 with something else.

The Giants lost their Will and Will Hernandez to Covid. The Giants are 1-8 ATS at home, amazing they’re better on the road than home as they’re 4-2 ATS out of last 6. Giants are 4-1 ATS as a dog but I just don’t see Brady and company with a top 5 defense having trouble with the Giants. Giants are a bottom 10 defense. Tampa 4-2 ATS of late and 5-1 SU. TB 1-6-1 ATS in NY and 1-7 SU but those numbers go back to Winston for TB and Eli for all but 1 game for Tampa. Let’s cut that deficit in half by…

Teasing TB to -6.5 and the second half of the teaser is…

The team I hate most in professional sports. And buyer beware because ever time I bet these dildos, they fuck me. But by gawd, King. If the Eagles CAN’T beat the WORST defense with a THIRD STRING QB, Carson Wentz needs to anally impale themselves. The Eagles managed to undo a Giants 11 point lead last thursday. And you might as well as bet the Giants to blow that lead like you would bet Seth Rogen’s next movie is going to be about an awkward person that’s Jewish. Eagles are 5-1 SU against the NFC east which helps the cause. Dallas has given up on McCarthy and lost the locker room. Dallas 0-7 ATS of late and 0-5 ATS on the road. You gotta think the pass rush is going to get Dallas to turn the ball over because Dallas has already done so 16 times this year.

The line has skyrocketed so I teased Philly down to -5

Seattle -2.5– 5 full quarters on the road sunday night but playing an insanely banged up SF offense. Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 5-1 SU. 12-4 SU at home and 8-1 SU home against SF. SF 4-14 ATS in Seattle but 6-1 ATS in road.

A few more candidates to tease or play:

Rams under 45.5- Tua’s first start and it’s hot as hell tomorrow. Rams under 4/5 and 5/7 on the year. Miami 4/6 under vs the Rams and under 4/6. Miami D 2nd in yds per point.

Tennessee -1 for all the reasons above.

NFL picks week 6 ATS

3-3-1 last week so another week of .500. Not winning money, just losing vigs. But good news is no losing weeks all season. 17-10-1 for the year gives me a 63% success rate so very much still in the black. And I loved our latest episode photo of Point Break on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast that I had to add it here, make sure you give it a listen and subscribe!

People are loving TB this year and I want you to point out a good win they’ve had. They got lucky against a bad Chargers team and just lost to Nick Foles. But the Packers have done nothing but make me money this year. They’re GB-9-3-2 following a bye.  GB 5-1 ATS, 10-1 SU of late and 5-1 SU on road.  GB 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS in October.  TB 2-4 ATS, 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs NFC north.  TB 0-5 ATS in October.

Taking GB on the money line as the line is -1. Why not pay a few dollars more to get it at a pick em? 

Did I call the Browns last week or what? Now the Colts looked like pureed dog shit against them. You know they’re going to be pissed and thankfully, they get a cupcake Bengals team. Some stats? Sure. Colts 7-0 ATS before a bye.  Indy 13-3 SU at home, 5-2 in October.  Cincy 3-16-1 SU last 20, 4-9 SU against Indy and 1-8 SU in Indy.  0-14-1 SU on the road.  But you know what’s a great idea? Teasing the Colts down to below a FG. So here’s the first leg of the teaser.

Second half of the teaser: Houston gives up a lot of points and they can also put up points. Hou Over 4/6 of late, Tenn 4/5 over.  7/8 over at home for Tenn.  Tannehill fresh off a curb stomping of the Bills, they’ll put up points early on Hou. And Houston will be airing it out to chase points so there’s the second leg of the teaser.

Colts -2 and Hou over 47.5 

Baker has bruised ribs and can’t play fast.  Cle 4-2 ATS in Pitt but 3-16-1 SU in Pitt.  Cle 1-7 ATS on road, 0-10 in Pitt.  Cle 1-4 vs AFC and 2-4 SU in AFC north.  Pitt 4-1 SU, 7-1 SU at home.  8-1-1 ATS in October. Pittsburgh is having an all-world start, best since the 70’s when they won all those Superbowls. No jokes, just take the Steelers.

Pitt -3.5

I fucked up and locked in 2 different teasers with the Colts. So that’s the first half of the teaser. The second half, Denver Broncos are 3-7 SU in NE, 3-9 on road, 0-5 ATS in NE.  2-6 SU vs AFC east.  No Noah Fant and no Melvin Gordon for the Broncos. Pats have Cam and Gilmore back.  17-3 SU at home, 6-1 ATS in October. I would rather try to paint Mohammed in a French magazine than bet against Bellichick with 2 weeks to prepare against a team with 2 shitty QBs and a middle of the road third one. And we’re teasing the Pats down to a key number; although I think they cunt punt them without the 6 points we’re getting from the teaser.

Indy -2 and Patriots -3

The Jets are worse than having to sit in Lincoln tunnel traffic with your stomach having the diarrhea gurgles. Jets 0-5 ATS and SU, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 SU vs Miami.  Jets 3-14 SU on road and 1-4 vs AFC East.  Miami 5-2 ATS of late, 5-1 against AFC, 5-0 ATS in week 6.

Arizona 4-1 ATS and SU in Dallas.  But 2-14 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 0-5 ATS and 1-6 ATS vs NFC west. Now you’re probably saying, “holy shit, you’re betting on the soul less ginger known as Andy Dalton?” Yep. Because they’re going to feed Zeke like they should’ve been done all year. And Arizona fresh off a blowout win against the Jets now have to fly back home and then Dallas? I don’t think Dallas gets blown out and with the teaser, it’s a key number for Red Riding Hood.

Miami -3.5 and Dallas +7

SF has been bad but they’re getting people back on the field.  They’re 13-4 SU against NFC, 5-2 vs NFC west.  Yes, Niners are 2-5 ATS at home but Rams mightily struggle here, 3-6 SU and ATS in SF. Niners need this game to stay entrenched in the wild card race and I think they keep it close, maybe even win. Rams have been traveling all over the place and despite my misstep picking against them last week; I think it’s gotta catch up to them sometime and this is it.

Jim Harbaugh is the Bobby Bowden from the FSU days in the 90’s. He just runs up those scores without give .5 fucks. Bal 12-3-1 ATS in 16, 16-2 SU.  4-2 ATS against Philly. 8-0 SU on road, 7-0 vs NFC.  Philly 1-5 ATS and 1-4-1 SU.  1-4 vs AFC. Philly showed some fight against Pitt but in true Philly fashion, gagged it up like a bulimic after eating a cheesesteak at Geno’s. Don’t worry, Carson Wentz will still put up his 2-3 picks this game and the Ravens will coast. They’ll have an easier time beating the Eagles than going home and dodging bullets in Baltimore.

Bal -3.5 and Niners +8.5

NFL Week 8 picks ATS

Hey everyone,

I’ve been lazy with the picks on the blog of late as I’m trying to force you to watch everyone’s favorite fantasy football/gambling show, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  Here’s the link to make it easy on you lunkheads: FFJK FB page.  And for the love of god, we need some help.  We’re no longer with Be Terrific so we’re going to have to start funding everything out of our own pockets.  So if you’d be so kind to take us up on our services such as we’ll do your daily fantasy lineup for you or give you access to my top plays of the week, that would help out with the expenses.  For love of God, we have made you a TON of free money.  You’d be doing us a solid; here’s the link to do so: FFJJ Patreon

ATL is 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS.  1-4 ATS vs NFC and 3-7 SU in October.  Matt Ryan with limited practice all week after leaving the game early against an angry Seattle team who got curb stomped.  Sea 7-1 ATS on the road, 11-4 SU of late.  Cincy 1-4-1 vs the Rams, 0-9 SU on the road.  Rams 9-3 ATS and stayed in Georgia holding a minicamp and not going back west to have to fly over to London.

Sea in a teaser with the Rams.  Sea to -1 and Rams to -6

GB 2-6 SU and ATS against KC.  2-4 SU in KC.   Fun fact, Rodgers .500 ATS on the road.  Andy Reid now has an 3 extra prep days.  Matt Moore 20-10 ATS as a starter.  KC 12-5 SU at home and 5-2 SU of late.  KC will run the ball at the awful GB run defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers’s hands.

KC +3.5

Explain to me how a backup QB is laying TWO TDs and I don’t care it’s at home.  Miami 2-7 ATS of late, 0-9 SU of late.  But they’re 4-2 ATS against Pitt, 1-4 SU in Pitt.  Wayyyy too many points for Mason Rudolph who just came back from a Mortal Kombat fatality.  Dolphins almost upset the Bills last week; they’re not lying down at all.  Pitt has yet to score 27.  Home teams 18-21-2 home teams off a bye  Fitzpatrick gets them fired up to cover.

Dolphins +14.5

 

 

NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

NFL picks ATS week 3

Some weeks you’re the hammer, some you’re the nail.  Last week, I went 3-5 (technically 3-4 because I didn’t get the Pitt pick in so I saved a few bucks).  I lost on Houston (Hey Deshaun Watson, when you have 14 seconds left, don’t scramble around while looking for an open receiver.  Throw it away and give the kicker a shot.)   I lost on Philly who let Fitzpatrick go all Fitzpatrick over them.  The Giants offensive line let Dallas defense gangbang Eli Manning.  However, the Giants didn’t score and neither Dallas so the under hit.  The Jets under also hit and the Chargers forced Vontae Davis to quit in halftime in their easy cover.  I also took the Seahawks on Monday night who took a colossal dump on themselves against the Bears as Russ Wilson threw a pick 6 when on a potential game tying drive late in the 4th quarter.  So last night, 9/20, I took the Browns under 41 against the Jets.  Amazing how I had to sweat that under out for so long as Tyrod and Darnold did their best impressions of kids with no arms trying to play jai alai.  But then Baker Mayfield comes in, wins the game, and unlocks the Bud Light fridges for the city of Cleveland.  And just for one evening, everyone in Cleveland enjoyed themselves and forgot how ugly everyone is in that town.

So 1-0 to start this week, let’s get you (and me) more freeeeeeeee money.

Carson Wentz is back this week and I think he’s going to look like Pete Wentz from Fall Out Boy.  The Eagles definitely rushed him back and it’s going to show.  Wentz is going to be treated with kid gloves and he’s without a ton of options: Jay Alai is probably out, no Alshon Jeffrey, no Mike Wallace.  They’re going to hand it off a lot and keep him safe.  The Colts come in after beating the Skins and Luck still isn’t airing it deep yet.  I don’t see this being a high scoring affair and the stats back it up: 9/10 have went under for Indy and recently 5/5 have went under for Indy. Philly also has been an under machine, 5/6 at home were under.  And Philly is still perfect as a garbage town with garbage fans.

Take the under 47 and the Colts + 7.

Like “men” who play Pokemon go, they don’t score.  You know who else doesn’t score?  The NY football Giants.  Eli Manning’s offensive line is like Ray Liotta’s face.  Full of holes and hard to watch.  I learned my lesson, again, about betting them as I thought they would show up against Dallas.  Houston finally comes home but they’re not lighting up the scoreboard.  They floundered in NE and Tennessee.  Giants are 5/6 with the under on the road and 8 of their last 9 under.  Houston also on the under train, 6/7.  I think the Giants are going to cover 6 this week but I’d rather lay my money on a sure thing; which is your wife after a few too many Long Island Ice Teas what she tells you is her,
girls’ night out”.  But I’ll settle for the second best lock.

Take the Giants under 42.

Home field is usually 3 points in the NFL.  So you mean to tell me that if the Packers played the Redskins on a neutral field, they’re an evenly matched team?  Right now, Aaron Rodgers is listed as questionable but it’s not the usual questionable.  He didn’t practice all last week, deemed questionable, but played on Sunday.  Rodgers hasn’t practiced all week and is again on track to play on Sunday.  The Skins are banged up and aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard; 9 points against the Colts and 24 against AZ.  Rodgers admits the knee will be tough to heel.  Speaking of healing, nothing worse than dealing with A) a blister on your foot B) burn on the roof of your mouth or C) getting into a salt water tank with an exposed hemorrhoid.  Washington is recently 5/5 and 4/5 with the under at home. There’s a chance of rain but a better chance of this game going 

GB Under 45.5 but hold on to see if it climbs by Sunday.  

The Bengals made the Ravens look worse than the Baltimore school system.  No Joe Mixon so I’ll wager they air it out more; especially with PPR sensation, Giovanni Bernard now the lead back.  10 days to plan out how to gash the Carolina defense.  And Carolina is 7/10 over at home.  Carolina just lost in a shootout to Atl and Cincy has put up 34 in each game this year.  Let’s hope there’s a “hurricane” of points in Carolina on Sunday.

Take the Bengals over 44

The Saints have been more disappointing this year than the last season of Entourage/Entourage film/Ballers.  Smell a theme?  Yeah Marky Mark, I’m talking to you, Mr 22 Mile.  Jesus, it must be great not to have to read a script in the last 10 years when they offer 25 million plus a film.  Brees on the road?  Meh. Brees on the road in a dome, I’m tumescent.  A banged up Julio Jones, although he’s practiced this week, but other key players on the o-line and D are banged up for the Falcons.  Saints 13-5-1 on the road and 4-2 vs ATL.  But to me, this is a, “if not now, when?” game for the Saints.  They need a convincing road win and this is the time.

Saints +2.5 (I Bought the .5 point to +3)

SF is on the road in KC this week. Do I think Jimmy G can backdoor a cover and then backdoor his porn star gf?  Easily. The KC defense is sloppier than a Kansas family of 5 taking down a Golden Corral buffet after sunday church.  SF is 7-3 ATS on the road and KC let Pitt right back into the game after going up 3 scores early.  No other pithy jokes or observations here.

Take the Niners +6.5 (I bought the half point to +7)

And since I’m tired of analysis and jokes for the last pick, the Raiders fly 3000 miles to play in 90 degree heat and give another lackluster performance.  And it’s your typical, west coast flies east to play a 1pm game.  

Go with the Dolphins -3 (I bought the .5 point to -2.5) 

Week 2 NFL ATS picks

lesko

This guy promised you free money.  I’m GIVING you free money!

When you’re good, take a bow.  And goddamn, am I good!  Last week, 6-1, repeat 6-1, while in Vegas with my buddies.  We ate like kings, drank the uncle who was too touchy feely with your sister, and screamed about all that FREEEE MONEY we received.  Dal under, AZ under, Cincy, Rams, Philly under, and the “what not to do in overtime” clinic put on by the Browns and Steelers brought me my final winner.  For those of you while are going to hear this story for the rest of your lives, Cle got 2 TDs late to tie the game up. I had the under at 44 and the score going into halftime was 21-21.  Translation: 99.5% of the time, I’m fucked.  But because Ben can’t close on the road or a mouthy coed in a bar bathroom and Cleveland went all Cleveland; neither team scored and the under held on by your mothers’ steel wool pubes.  The only I lost was the Saints money line and boy, was that a hit in the pocket as the money line was -550.  And now since we have more time to write this article while Predator is on in the background, my daughter is eating popcorn, and my wife is preparing for 4 eventual moments of randy talk, let’s get to the picks!

The Filthadelphia Eagles showed that they sucked less against Matt Ryan on the road last week.  Atlanta had 20 penalties, which is 4 less than crybaby Venus Williams had at the US Open.  Was it Venus or Serena?  I don’t care.  Tennis is a half step above soccer, NASCAR, and people who play Pokemon.  Ok fat nerds, 1997 is over.  Stop chasing fake Japanese turtles in traffic while listening to Goo Goo Dolls and go do a few laps around the track that bullies chased you around in gym class.  So now Philly goes down to Tamp-er, as that morbidly obese, real life Comic Book Guy, Mike Francesa would say.  Tampa took the tits out of the Saints in their own building last week.  Do you think Tampa has it in them for back to back wins?  Statistics don’t think so.  Fitzpatrick is 1-9-1 ATS after a win.  Philly 4-2 ATS and 5-1 on the road.  Tampa is 2-4 at home against Philly.  And they’ve lost Hargroves and Grimes in the secondary.  Oh yeah, DeSean Jackson is in concussion protocol after he scored a TD and DIDN’T spike the ball before the end zone…for once.  Lastly, Philly has had 10 days to prep for this game.  You’re only laying 3 and that’s a bargain.  

I’m taking buying the Birds down to -2.5

Just read that Marcus Mariota although banged up, is going to play this Sunday.  And apparently, backup Blaine Gabbert is going to play as well.  Well, you know the old saying, when you have 2 QBs, you have zero QBs.  Tennessee showed me nothing last week and although Watson wasn’t good at all in NE, the Texans were hanging tight against the Pats.  Houston 11-3 ATS as well as 5-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Hopkins is probable for Houston and Delanie Walker is out for the year for the Titans.  And hell, I even like the under 43 as there is supposed to be some rain.  Maybe the hurricane reaches there as plays a role.  

But I’m buying down the Texans to -2.5 for sure and maybe the under 44

The Steelers are back home where you’ll hear one of the worst accents in the world.  Yinz? Pop?  Jesus, can you people NOT home school your kids when you dropped out of the 6th grade to work in the coal mines?  But there are 3 things for sure: Death, Taxes, and Toronto relief pitcher Tyler Clippard shitting the bed.  And the 4th is usually Ben Rothliesberger at home; ESPECIALLY after a shit tie.  And who has the Cleveland under 5.5 for the season?  Your favorite neighborhood handicapper.  The Chiefs defense got gouged but hung on against the Chargers last week.  No Eric “Dingle” Berry for the Chiefs.  Ben and the boys actually close a game out in Pittsburgh while Leveon Bell misses out on another 500k game check.  The last time someone avoided Pennsylvania this long, it cost her the election.  Zing!

I’m buying the Steelers down to -2.5

The Jets shocked the world when they beat Detroit.  Detroit shocked everyone when Matt Stafford did his best Nathan Peterman impression.  Are the Jets going to score a lot of points again?  No. Miami is going to come into the Meadowlands and cool down from those points they put up in that marathon last week against the Titans.  Jets got 5 TOs and a lot of POT.  Sam Darnold won’t be winging it all over the place.  Miami is 6/8 under in NY so we’re going to make this easy and take.

Jets under 43

I love the Chargers in Buffalo because well, it’s Buffalo.  And they stink.  And they’re starting a rookie QB.  Also, the Chargers offense will light it up against a hangdog Buffalo D.  I know the whole, west coast team flying east for a 1pm game argument but the Bills are so bad, I don’t care.  I bought the point and took…

Chargers -6.5

Lastly, here are 6 words you RARELY hear me say: I love the Giants this week.  They had a chance or 2 to take down the Jags.  Dallas looks AWFUL, ZERO offense for them.  They didn’t cross the 50 until the THIRD QUARTER last week.  I just think the Giants are not doing 0-2 again this year.  And getting 3?  Sure, why not?  Watch this game be 21-10 Dallas.  But here’s an absolute LOCK:  The Giants are 7/8 with the under and Dallas is 5/5 in recent under.  Giants/Dallas go under 4/5.  Eli and his moderately confused looking face win in a low scoring fashion.

Take the Giants +3 and the Under 41.5

Week 15 NFL Picks ATS

5-2 last week, ohhhh baby.  Looks like my daughter gets more than a Hess truck for Christmas.  Just kidding, we make a real living.  And I’ll heavily wager that if you got a Hess truck for Christmas, you had a divorced dad who forgot to buy a Christmas present for you and had to call an audible at a gas station.  So the money came pouring in last week and for the year, I’m 61%.  SIXTY ONE PERCENT, THAT’S FUCKING INSANE.  AND YOU SHOULD BE TIPPING ME OUT FOR THESE GENIUS PICKS!  Feel free to do so at PayPal: Kgootee@hotmail.com

And if you were curious about the new Star Wars film, check out my review here: Star Wars The Last Jedi Review (No spoilers)

I like the Saturday night game, here’s why: KC under hits 13/18 at home.  KC also under has hit in 4/5 as well as when KC plays LAC, the under has hit 5/7.  And LA has hit the under 4/5 on the road and 7/8 games.  

Took KC under 47

You know who’s bad?  The NY Jets on the road.  They got ram-rodded (probably a top 5 gay bar name) by the anemic Denver Broncos.  Yes, Josh McCown got knocked out of the game.  And who came in, Bryce Petty.  I’d rather have Lori Petty or the corpses of Tom and Richard Petty.  You know who’s good?  The Saints.  You know who’s REALLY good?  The Saints after a loss.  Let’s also add that the Saints have had 10 days to prep for this game after yours truly picked Atlanta to cover against them last Thursday.  No Wilkinson for the Jets as he’s truly a piece of shit and probably won’t play a game for the rest of the year.  Jets are 0-5 in road games facing a team with a winning home record.  Jets are 1-5-1 of late.  Saints are 6-2 vs the Jets and 5-1 ATS as home favorites of 10.5 or more.  This line is 16.5 and I don’t give 2 flying fucks.  The Jets will be lucky to score 10 points but that won’t matter because the Saints are scoring at least 35. And here’s why you should take the under as well.  Jets are 6/8 on the road as the under.  Saints vs Jets has the under hit the last 4/6.  

Take the Saints -16.5 and the under 47

Baltimore Ravens are 7/9 with the over and 5/6 on the road.  Cleveland is recently 4/6 with the over.  No Jimmy Smith for Bal so this is a quick and easy pick.

Take the Ravens over 42.5

I may be too in love with this team but I think the co-lock of the week besides the Saints is the Rams.  After a tough loss, they get Robert Woods back and head into Seattle where the defense is more gored than a tourist who ran with the bulls in Pamplona.  The Rams are 6-2 and 4-1 on the road ATS.  They just lost a tough one to the Eagles.  Seattle of late is 2-4-1 and I see the Rams taking control of the division with a win today.

Take the Rams +1.5

You might be asking me about the game of the day which is the shitbag Pats (And I told you that the Dolphins were covering that game but they go and shock everyone by winning outright, go figure) vs the Steelers.  The Steelers fucked me last week by blowing a 2 TD lead and not covering.  The numbers SCREAM Patriots, ESPECIALLY after a loss.  But for some reason, I think the analysts got into my head and here’s a stat for you.  Ben is 6-1 ATS as a home dog.  But here are some other numbers to consider: Pats are 7/9 with the under and 5/6 on the road with the under.  But when the 2 teams play, they go over 9/13 and 5/7 of late. So I think I MAY take…

The Steelers under 54.  This number is climbing and I think the under is the better play but haven’t locked it in.  This depends on how I do at 1pm.

 

 

Week 14 NFL Picks ATS

“Kevin, where’s Reagan?”  “Kevin, is Reagan coming back this week?”  Hey, did you see I went 5-3 last week?  “Yeah but we want to see Reagan eat her cookie.”  That was all I heard!  You guys would rather see my daughter and I make cutesy-poo faces (it’s adorable) than hear my winning picks and capitalize on free money this Christmas?  No wonder school test scores are down and Madea films continue to make money.  Good news, you’re seeing her today as she’s feeling completely better and eating cookies faster than Roy Moore eats 15 year old asses.  We’re already off to a fast start as I took Atlanta on Thursday night so that puts me in the “nice” column to start week 14.

The Tennessee Titans are insanely overrated.  If you had them last week -7, you absolutely stole one for the books as Derrick Henry broke a run for a late TD that was just meant to kill the clock and cover.  Now, they go to Arizona where as a home dog, they’re 24-13.  AZ isn’t playing for anything but the way they’re going about business, you would think otherwise.  Tenn on the road is awful, 1-4 ATS.  AZ vs Tenn is 4-1.  

Fly with the Cards at the free +2.5 points

Cincinatti played Pittsburgh on Monday night in a game that was uglier than watching Rebel Wilson eating.  Cincy 4-0 ATS and 13-5 vs teams with losing records.  The Bears are just goddamn awful and John Fox is 4 weeks away from a pink slip and shitty gold watch.  The Bears are recently 1-3-1 and 4-9 on the road.  They’re not going to get motivated playing for a lame duck coach.  Vontaze Burfict is out for Cincy but I don’t care.  I see them taking out their anger from shitting the bed on Monday on the lifeless Bears.

The Bengals eat the Bears like a tourist who jumped into their cage at the zoo, -6.5

Kansas City is back home after failing to put the dagger in the Jets.  Oakland comes in after unconvincingly beating the Geno Smith led Giants.  KC has the under hit 12/17 at home, 7/9 vs Oak, 17/25 vs Oak, and Oakland is 6/9 with the under on the road.  And with all of that, I’m taking the over today.  WHAT??  You just gave 13 stats saying under!  Well, Andy Reid isn’t calling the plays and the new guy took the reins off Alex Smith and then against the Jets, they threw smoke all over the place.  They have nice weather in KC today so no crazy winds.  The Oakland defense is trash AND they’re getting Crabtree back.  We all know how bad the Chiefs D is.  And the last time these teams played, they combined for over 60.  

Take the over 48 with confidence.

Carolina is home against the Vikings after going to NO and getting a spanking (just like I said.)  Fun facts: Carolina is 9-2 and has 7 wins as a home dog, also recently 4-1 ATS and SU.  This is the 3rd straight game for Minnesota and something’s got to give.  I think this is the week they finally lose one.  Khalil and Olsen are probable for Carolina as well.  I know Carolina is an unimpressive 2-3-1 at home but I think they bounce back after a loss and Minnesota can afford a loss; especially coming to the tail end of a road trip.  

Take Cam and the boys +2.5

Miami is getting a bushel of points, 11, home against the Patriots.  I know, betting against the Patriots is suicide 9/10 times.  Yes, I know the Pats are 12-0 in November or later.  Here’s why I like Miami: Pats are 1-3-1 in Miami and no Gronk.  I think the Pats run the ball and kill the clock.  I also think the Pats may get caught looking forward to Pittsburgh next week.  11 is the perfect number to backdoor with.  

Dolphins and the +11 sounds like a plan to me.

The lock of the week is a no-brainer.  I’m talking a no-brainer on the scale of the scale of, “Do I eat steak or do I fuck Lena Dunham?”  The Philadelphia Eagles were brought back to Earth last week in Seattle.  They stayed on the West Coast this week to practice and keep their body clocks right.  The Rams players are dealing with the fires ravaging their lands like hipsters ravaging their parents’ dreams of not being sniveling pussies.  This is going to be the game of the day but I think Philly answers back for being held down in Seattle.  And I promise you, those dirt merchant Eagles fans will take over the stadium where they have an AVERAGE home field situation. 

Eagles as a pick em on the road.