NFL picks ATS Week 9

First off, a shameless plug for my show on Twitch TV called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  See how we do with our gambling picks as well as fantasy football recommendations.  We’ll be on next week at 6pm under the Be Terrific banner on Twitch as well as Facebook Live.

Unreal.  We’ve just turned out clocks back and as I typed out, “week 9”, I realize how time does indeed fly.  Remember how getting to your birthday, summer vacation, or losing your virginity seemed to take a lifetime?  Fuck, we’re now halfway through the NFL season.  It was only 2 months ago that my buddy and I were hopping around like idiots in Vegas where your boy went 7-1 opening weekend.  Last week, I righted the ship and went 5-3, bringing me to a robust 35-24 and more importantly to 59%.  Jesus Christ, that’s spectacular!  I hit the Colts, Skins, Pitt Over, Seattle, and the Packers as the lock of the week.  Lost the Bengals as they blew a 17 point  lead late after Fitzpatrick and his beekeeper beard returned to action and backdoored that game.  I called the Saints winning outright, wish I took them instead of the over.  The Saints over was ahead of pace at halftime but Minnesota couldn’t do dick in the second half, leaving me 4 points shy of the over.  And the Niners ALSO blew a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter against Arizona. As we know, the best laid plans…

Week NAWWWNE started off with a clunker for me as every sharp better jumped on Oakland +3 when Beathard was announced as questionable on Wednesday.  As the line went down to Oakland -1 when Beathard was ruled out, you can figure out who started to plan on spending that sweet, sweet, freeeee money.  And then a pesky little thing called, “the game” occurred.  That’s where Nick Mullen sliced and diced through that putrid Oakland defense like he was Peyton Manning in 2006.  Hell, Mullen didn’t throw his FIRST incompletion until late in the first quarter.  SF ends up blowing out the Raiders and you’ll be lucky to find someone this year to put cash on them this year, even if it’s against a bunch of bearded hipsters wearing skinny jeans with Lena Dunham as the quarterback.  The way the Raiders defense has been playing, she could do a 5 step drop back, tweet how white men are the worst, and find a “male feminist” open on a crossing route.

So 0-1 to start this week, let’s pick some winners!

Lock of the week:

Pitt 4-1, 6-3 ATS on road and 8-0-1 SU.  Baltimore got smoked in Carolina and hasn’t had their bye yet, they’re looking TIRED.   I love taking divisional teams as dogs as they know each other well and Pitt will be looking for revenge after the first matchup showed them to the loss column. The Steelers run D is morning boner solid, 5 total TDs to RBs this year
Pitt +3, now +2.5
Minnesota is back after losing to the Saints and now they get Detroit.  And if you’re the Lions, you’ve traded away a guy who caught 70% of his targets.  You’re playing a top 10 scoring defense and 6th against the pass rush.  Oh, the Vikings also have the 5th best red zone defense  I’d rather back Donald Trump at a Menudo concert than back the Lions  this week. Explain this line: If Detroit played this game at home, it would be Detroit +1?    Minn needs the game, is at home where they’re 16-7-1.  Adam Thielen doesn’t fumble, that’s a completely different game  Detroit giving up 5.5 ypc and 2nd most rushing yds in NFL, nahhhhhh
Take the Vikes and their stupid SKOL chant -5.5
My favorite game show as a kid was the Price is Right.  And boy, the price is right here.  Denver trades away it’s number 1 WR…TO THE TEAM THEY’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND? Houston is red hot and the Broncos have cracked 20 points ONCE this year.  Houston with 10 days off and Lamar Miller is running like he’s leaving Honduras behind.  2 100 yd games in back to back weeks sounds and now against the 28th ranked run defense a good enough reason for me.  Bonus reason: oh yeah, how about a run heavy team (Denver) going against the best run defense in the league (Texans). 
I have no idea why the line is a pick em but I got Houston in this week.  And if I waited a day, I could’ve had them +1.
Cleveland has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator.  At home against the white hot Chiefs, oh boy.  Cold hard fact: When a home dog is 8 ore more, the under is 21/23.  18, 23, 14, and 12.  Those are Cleveland’s last 4 games worth of points.  Yes, we know KC puts up points.  But will Cle put up their share, especially under new coaching?  I say no.
Quick and easy pick: Cleveland under 51.5
Tennessee has a top 10 defense and Dallas can’t score, except their fans score insanely high on the BMI and diabetic scores.  Seriously, how many skinny Dallas fans do you know?  That aren’t on drugs.  Or homeless.  Tennessee hasn’t allowed a RB over 80 yards and Zeke is the key to that offense.  Does Dak Prescott scare you?  As much as Ernest P Worrell did.  Dallas can win by a FG but that’s not the spread.
Take the Titans +5.  I can never pick them right but I think I figured them out for this week.
Bills stink and the Bears aren’t putting up points against the Bills defense. Low number, I know.  But this game has 20-6 written all over it.
Bills under 38.5
Games I like and may take, depending on the number.
Saints with an impressive win in Minn (I called it, you’re welcome) against the undefeated Rams.  Rams are 1-3-1 ATS and Saints are 5-0 ATS and SU.  10-1 SU at home.  Rams aren’t covering and I think the Saints eek it out in a shootout.  
Saints at home and getting 2?  Boy, I’m waiting to see if I can get to 3 but still like +2
Tampa goes into Carolina where they’re killing it SU. But against divisional opponents and the Panthers are -6 or more, they’re 0-5.  Fitzpatrick may be down but with that offense, they can backdoor it easily.  You see that commercial with JB Smoove?  It shows McCaffrey has some real acting chops.  He really convinced me like he understood what the hell JB was saying.  JB Smoove sounds like the black Swedish Chef.
Wait and see if it gets to 7 but TB +6.5 could be the play.
 It’s supposed to rain in Seattle, duh.  But Seattle is a heavy rushing offense.  Melvin Gordon is back for the Chargers so that gets them in the running spirit as well.  Chargers have gone under 6/9 on the road.  Seattle has gone under 5/6 and under 4/5 at home vs the Chargers.  
Seahawks under 47.5
Aaron Rodgers stinks on the road, he’s below 50% ATS.  Pats are back home and firing on all cylinders.  Sony Michel looks like he’s going to play.  And one of the worst names ever, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, just got traded.  He’s the best defensive player on an awful defense.  Where was DYFUS for an intervention on that name selection?  Pack 1-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 SU.  Pats 4-1 of late, 9-3 ATS at home.  If it’s 7, you take the Pack.  But anything less, it’s an easy call for cry baby Brady and his tubby Unabomber coach.
Patriots -5
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NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

Week 15 NFL picks Against the Spread ATS

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5-3 last week so more freeeee money came rolling in so I continue to make $.  If you’re hitting these picks, do the right thing and paypal (Kgootee@hotmail.com) a cut of your winnings.  If it wasn’t for me, that free money wouldn’t be rolling in and you’ve have to do something like work a job to earn a few bucks for Christmas presents.  

KC is home after a 10 day layoff against the Titans. And if you’re going to the game, load up on blackberry brandy cause it’s gonna be cold. I know, that’s something your grandfather would tell you to do, especially when you park at “make out point” with your girl. Tenn doesn’t put up THAT many points and neither does KC. It’s 14 degrees there at 11:50am and feels like -8. The ball is gonna feel like a rock so..

I’m taking the under 42

Baltimore screwed me on mon night with a blown coverage td so I lost by .5. Now they play a demoralized, non-motivated Philly team at home. Philly d has been as awful as the reviews as the new Will Smith film. I mean, did he hire the same person who also screened scripts for Jim Carrey after 2000? Bal needs this game to stay within the hunt and the number is friendly. I l know the public loves it and Jimmy Smith is out for Bal but philly is 2-10 ATS the week before they play the Giants

I’m taking the Ravens -5.5

The Packers own December. The Packers own the Bears. The Bears are playing well ATS recently with Barkley. Aaron Rodgers has a calf that is flaring up as of late. What should you do? Here’s a cold (pun intended) hard fact. It’s also colder than Hillary Clinton’s labias in Chicago. As of 12:35 pm, it’s 11 degrees but feels like -4. Don’t be a hero, just win money.

I’m taking the gb under 38.5

It’s been too long since New Orleans lit it up. They’re playing in AZ and both teams aren’t playing for anything. I love the saints in a dome and I like AZ to put up points at home. It’s gonna be a loosey goosey atmosphere so…

I’m taking AZ over 50

Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5. Dalllas 15-31 ats in december but throw those numbers out because that’s under Romo. Dallas covered only 11/37 as a home favorite. Again, a lot of that is under Romo. But Dallas is losing steam and the Bucs are gaining steam. There are enough points are enough for me to

Take the Bucs +7

And in my locks of the week:

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Oak has had 10 days off to think about that stinker in KC. They’re on the road where they are 15-2 ATS as visitors. SD lost Melvin Gordon for this week so that means more air show and probably more turnovers from Phillip Rivers. It’s laughable when people say he’s better than Eli. Rivers owns garbage fantasy football time but lacks in the rings department. He hands that ball over like he’s been held at gunpoint. But Oak gives up points as well as scores them. So that’s why I’m taking:

Oak -2.5 and over 49.5

Fantasy football talk/draft #1 recap

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As I’ve said before, this summer for films BLOW.  I’ll wait for Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, and Jason Bourne to hit video or stream online.  Same for Hands of Stone or Don’t Breathe.  I’m so glad Ben Hur failed miserably as Hollywood MUST be getting the memo that we’re SICK of rebooting good films.  So let’s talk Fantasy Football which we’re right in the midst of draft time.

I do 3 drafts a year and all my friends know, I draft best available player.  I’m also a fan of value, nothing better than getting a solid player later than a round or 2 later than he was expected to go.  So I’ll share with you my teams and we can cheer/mock my picks:

League 1.  Team Name: Hope Solo’s Goop Chute.  If you don’t get that reference, google Hope Solo naked selfies.  And make sure you aren’t eating at that time.

I had the 3rd pick overall and went with my boy OBJ.  He’s gonna crush it as the Giants have the best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

2nd rd: Mark Ingram.  He’s the Saints guy now and Drew Brees can’t throw 80 times a game.

3rd rd: Amari Cooper.  Oak as the 2nd best schedule against poorly ranked CBs.

4th rd: Denarius Thomas. Don’t care they don’t have a QB, whomever is at the helm will do their damnedest to get him the ball.  And he’s my THIRD WR.  Wow…

5th rd: Dion Lewis.  Drafted him 6 hours before the news came down he’s going to be out 10 weeks…oops

6th rd: Donte Moncrief.  TY Hilton is not Reggie Wayne nor Marvin Harrison.  Nice 4th WR/Flex

7th rd: Frank Gore. Yes, a bit of a gamble as he’s 34.  But he’s VERY durable and he’s my number 2 back.  If he gets me 7 TDs on the season, mission accomplished.

8th rd: Tom Brady.  Goddamnit, I hate the Patriots.  But he’s going to be in full, “Fuck you” Or “Bobby Bowden mid-late 90’s Florida State running up the score” Mode.  I’m getting great value for him here.  I’m missing 4 games (5 with the bye) with Brady so all I have to do is get to week 4 at least 2-2 and I’ll be good to go.

9th rd: Danny Woodhead.  Did you you see Melvin Gordon last year?  I did because I had that shitsipper.  Here’s me snaking the guy who took Melvin Gordon

10th rd: Willie Snead.  If you missed it, Drew Brees throws…a lot.  I know he spreads it around but he’s my 5th WR and he can easily get 6 TDs this year.  The problem will be he’ll get 3 of them in 1 week while he’s on my bench.

11th rd: Travis Benjamin: Phillip Rivers doesn’t win Superbowls but he sure throws it a lot. It’s nice to have a #2 WR on a team that airs it out…

12th rd: Sammie Coates: Crushing it in training camp and will boot Markus Wheaton out of the #2 WR role.

13th Rd: Bilal Powell.  Matt Forte is old and banged up.  Not saying Powell is the answer but he sure is a nice bye week fill-in.

14th rd: Devontae Booker.  Love this pick as CJ Anderson BLOWS.  Ronnie Hillman took away a ton of his carries and Booker has almost usurped Hillman on the depth chart.

15th rd: RG3. Go ahead and laugh.  But I’m not and here’s why.  Like I said, I need him for the first 4 weeks and a bye week.  Here’s Griffin’s first 4 games: @Philly (garbage defense),  Home Baltimore (not a great D), @Miami (garbage defense), and @washington (Garbage defense and let’s not forget the “revenge against the team who cut them” factor.

16th rd: Dwayne Allen.  The rule of thumb when drafting a TE is if you don’t get a top tiered one like Gronk, Olsen, Reed, or Kelce…you wait.  And wait I did.  No Coby Fleener so no more sharing catches.

17th rd: Lions D.  My last 2 picks will ALWAYS be kicker and defense…except last night where I clicked the wrong guy and drafted a kicker in the 3rd to last rd.

18th rd: Mike Nugent.

And there you have it so comment away on my draft.  I think my only notable weakness it my number 2 RB but then again, not many people have 2 solid RBs.  I do have 3 NASTY WRs and a solid bench.  You can make the case that until I get Brady back, QB is weak too.  I’ll buy that…I’LL BUY THAT.  But I think RG3 answers all the naysayers and is at LEAST competitive.  If not, start looking for a string of RG3 car washes in the Cleveland/DC Metro/Baylor areas….