Tag: matt ryan

NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

Advertisement
by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL week 16 picks ATS

Merry Christmas everyone and let’s dig yourself out of the credit card holes for Christmas presents. Last week, 3-2 to get back on the winning side. I hit the Saints in the first leg of a teaser and the Bucs in another leg of a second teaser. I lost with the Cardinals -5 yesterday as they were flatter than an A cup against a 3rd string QB. 0-1 to start this week, 48-40 YTD which is 55% for the season, still in the black!

I absolutely love the Bears this week, which is something I thought I would NEVER say anytime soon. When Trubisky and Montgomery have played together this season, they’re putting up 30 ppg. Bears have scored 69 points in 2 games which takes the Jets about a month to do. And they’re playing Jacksonville, who unlike the aforementioned AAA football team of NY, won’t fuck up the #1 pick. Jax 4-8 ATS of late, 0-10 SU of late. They’re also 0-6 SU at home. Bears are 2-6 ATS of late but 4-2 ATS against Jacksonville. And the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot and well as Trubisky is fighting for a job. This has PRIME teaser taste to it and that’s exactly what I did here.

First leg of teaser, Bears -1.5

Last week, the Rams were as embarrassing as Dr. Fauci’s first pitch in the World Series. If there’s anyone to back after a loss, it’s the Rams: 13-5 ATS after a loss. 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Also, the Rams 12-5 ATS on the road. Rams are 5-2 against Sea and average 33 ppg against them. Seattle 2-5 ATS of late but 4-1 SU. And we’re going to make this an even safer play. McVay is a covering machine against Seattle, I see no difference here.

Second leg of teaser Rams +7.5

The Chiefs aren’t covering games AT ALL. Pushed last week against the Saints and I believe their last 5 wins have been by no more than 6. They get up and then take their foot off the gas pedal. Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS of late but 9-0 SU, 12-1 SU at home. All 1-4 SU of late, 3-6 SU in KC. But here’s a stat that jumped out at me: Matt Ryan as a double digit dog is 5-1 ATS. And the Chiefs D is 32nd in RZ defense. Tyreek Hill will be on a snap count so having their home run hitter limited is another bullet I have. Here’s hoping the Chiefs D does Tera Patrick used to do for many moons, let strangers in her backdoor.

First leg of the teaser Falcons +16.5

A lot of people love Green Bay at home where they’ve been a covering machine. And I have made a TON of money this year teasing GB down but you may have noticed if you’re betting at the regular number, they’re not covering SHIT. 2-4 ATS of late but 6-1 SU and 12-1 SU at home. It’s snowing all day in GB and a high of 28. Green Bay is 21st against the run and you know they’ll be dialing up Derrick Henry and controlling the clock. Rodgers is great in the snow but I don’t see him winning by a TD. Hell, they might even lose. Tenn is 4-1 ATS and SU of late. Also, 4-1 SU against GB and 10-2 SU on the road. Everyone loves backing the Pack at home but you’d better to it on the ML and not lay the 3.5…

Second leg of teaser Titans +9

Thank Christ I didn’t take the Pittsburgh game monday night but that’s going to play a role into this next pick. Cincy obviously blew their load on monday night and now they face a Texans team who is better than their record as well as got the short shrift on some games. See: Colts games this season. Now they’re home against the Bengals and the time is right to fire in. I know Hou is 5-10 ATS of late, 4-11 SU. And Cincy is equally as bad: 2-4 ATS of late, 1-5 SU. And they’re 2-8 ATS against Texans, 1-8 SU. Also, 0-5 SU on the road.

This is the 2nd leg of the 7 pt, TB teaser where the first leg was the Saints. Houston down to a pick’em

Gotta have a total for you this week so here it goes, another teaser??!!! Indy has been over 7/10 of late but those are against awful defenses. Pittsburgh 5/7 under of late and they’re under fire for losing 3 straight in sloppy fashion. Indy had a great defense and they get Buckner back. I don’t see a crazy amount of scoring so let’s take the number to:

Pitt under 50.5

Chargers 8/11 over of late. I know they’ve gone under a lot of late: 4/6 under vs Denver, 9/13 at home, and 7/7 home against Denver. But Denver D is insanely porous and now Bradley Chubb is out. Joey Bosa is out as well as a couple of other defenders for the Chargers. We know Herbert can put up points and Lock had his moments this year. I think they can combine for…

2nd leg of the teaser, Chargers over down to 43

Lastly, we’ve got one more leg of a teaser to fill and boy, I love this one. The Bills have been the cuckholded boyfriend in the AFC east to the Pats since I wore sweater vests and puka shell necklaces. But now, the tables are turning/have turned. I think the Bills come out and shove a roman candle in Bellichick’s ass for 20 years worth of beatings. Bills are 6-0 ATS of late, 7-1 SU. The Pats are done and sticking with Cam which no one can explain. Bills with a few extra days rest and plenty of motivation to get that 2 seed. The ONLY thing the Pats have in their corner besides their coach is some quasi-recent success against the Bills: 6-2 ATS vs NE, 7-1 SU. But those go past the Josh Allen era and I’m more than happy to take 6 points and make this virtually a pick em.

2nd leg of the Saints teaser, Bills -1

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Divisional Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

I’ll take my usual bow at the beginning of the column and say yet again, another fantastic week for Herr Gootee.  3-0 last week as the Jax first half under, Saints over, and KC under (thought I had a clenched asshole for the last hour of that game) all came in to cover.  This week, I think it’s a harder crop of games as the numbers are a bit wonky.  Does Tom Brady and the Pats take all the bulletin board material (Discourse in the Pats locker room and Titans safety talking shit) and go into pure, “fuck you” mode?   Do the Vikings take one more step to becoming the first team in a Super Bowl that hosts the game?  Do Eagle fans continue their streak of shitting the bed while their white trash, vile fans create a riot after their backup QB loses the game?  I’ll bet the ranch and your ranch that they’ll do that if Philly loses well because, a tiger doesn’t change his stripes.  Onto the picks.

The aforementioned white trash wasteland known as Philadelphia hosts the red hot (yes, you read that right) Atlanta Falcons at the Stink this weekend.  Atlanta has had to damn near win out while Philly has been on autopilot for 3 weeks, including a bye.  But, in the 2 games Philly has played, they’ve combined for 19 points.  Yes, one was meaningless in week 17 but not a good look when you’re prepping for the playoffs, especially with a backup QB.  The line is 3 so let’s break that down: Home field is 3 points so what this is saying to me is that on a neutral field Matt Ryan and Nick Foles are considered even?  Get the fuck out of here.  Yes, I know it’s a dome team out in the cold where those teams are 4-24 in January.  And I know Atlanta has been on the road for 4/5 of their last games.  But the Atlanta defense can hold down NICK FOLES.  And can you say with confidence that you’re going to put money.  On Nick Foles.  In a playoff game?

I think people are afraid to call Philly a paper tiger as there has never been #1 seed that’s an underdog.  But, let’s also look at numbers: Atlanta under, 5/5.  4/5 under on the road. 9/12 under against Philly and 5/7 under in Philly.  Lastly, Philly has been under in 5/7. Let’s also add that it’s cold there today in the city that considers grade D shaved meat with synthetic cheese a “gourmet experience.”  I think both teams start off slow and try to figure each other out so…

I took first half under 20 and I’ll buy the .5 to get Atlanta at -2.5

Tom Brady is butthurt that Jimmy Garrapolo could have been a threat to his legacy so he had him shipped off.  This is some real Sopranos shit here; didn’t Tony debate about having Christopher knocked off because he also viewed him as a threat?  Don’t flood my inbox with corrections because I haven’t watched the show since it unceremoniously ended in one of the laziest endings ever written.  I know Montana was getting upset that Steve Young was about to and did take his job.  But only time will tell if Jimmy G meets up to everyone’s lofty expectations.  And why does every male sportscaster have to swoon about his looks.  Guys, calm down with that.  Women went gaga over Derek Jeter.  I went gaga because he delivered clutch hits in October so let’s leave it at that.  

The 13.5 is quite lofty and the Pats rarely get backdoored (go ahead and insert your lazy butt sex reference in here, I’m trying to bang out this column before I appear on a podcast to talk about Comics Watching Comics for the umpteenth time this week.  Fuck it, I’ll shoehorn a plug into my own column.)  The Pats have outscored opponents in the 2nd half, 66-18, in their last 3 playoff games.  Meaning they don’t take the foot off the gas.  BUT the Pats against the run are like Alabama fans in SAT scores, dead last.  Derrick Henry ran all over the Chiefs so expect the Pats to key in on him.  That leaves Corey Davis, Erick Decker, and Delanie Walker left as the main options for Marcus Mariota.  Do any of them get your dick hard?  Me neither but I think the Titans can chase points and keep it closer and make Brady throw it late in the game; facing the Titans 24th ranked pass D.  But would I be shocked if this game ends up 35-14?  Nope.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying the Pats are 7/10 over at home, I’m saying Tenn in NE has been over 6/7.  I’m saying Tenn and NE has gone over 7/10 at home.

Pats/Titans over 48 is the play.

Pittsburgh gets a chance to redeem themselves after Ben gave it up more than a black family at a high school graduation.  Jesus, I wish my parents hooted and yelled that loud.  The only thing they yelled was, “Get a fucking job because interns don’t get paid shit.”  This next handicap is really based on the eye test and some stats.  Blake Bortles was fucking ghastly last week, having more rushing yards than throwing yards.  At home.  In 60 degree weather.  Only time that’s ever happened is when I played as Michael Vick in Madden.  And this was against a mediocre Bills defense.  So what do you think is going to happen when he’s in Pittsburgh.  In 20 degree weather.  Facing a team with a solid pass rush.  Yeah, not much.  

I see both teams running the ball as each team’s rush defense isn’t stellar.  In fact, Jax run d is 30th!  Plus, I think they’ll want to slowly dip their toes in the water and not air it out early as Bortles is always a nanosecond from going full Bortles.  And Ben got picked 5 times.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Jax is surprisingly successful in Pittsburgh, 12-5 and recently 4-1 ATS.  Pitt is 1-5 of late and 1-4 at home.  Again, the eye test screams Pitt but they’ve also been known to play to the level of their competition.  Jax under has hit 4/6 on the road and 15/23.  Pitt at home has gone over 5/6 and 5/7 recently.  I think Pitt is going to win and probably cover as well as go under but I’m going to go with my gut when I put my money down.

And my gut says take the first half under again.  I don’t have a number yet but I’m taking it.

Lastly, the Saints head to Minnesota where everyone and their mothers love the Vikings. And why not?  The numbers of the Vikings have been insanely 1 sided.  Vikes are 11-4-1 ATS and I’ve made a ton of money betting on them.  They have a great defense: 276 ypg average, 10.6 pig, and +137 yds over an opponent at home.  But the Saints (who I have to win the NFC at 6/1) despite being 1-4 ATS of late, do have some success on the road, 12-5-1 on the road ATS.  They are 2-4 in Minnesota, and 2-7 against Minnesota.  If this game gets to 6 or more, I may take it.  I may take the over 48 as recently, 4/6 have gone over and 6/7 over in Minnesota.  BUT the Saints are under 4/6 on the road.  Man, so many conflicting stats.  I just may see how I do and then go on my gut.  But there’s one stat that stares at me square in the eyes, THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAME THAT CASE KEENUM HAS PLAYED IN.

Probably the over and possibly the Saints…depending on the numbers.

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Conference Championship weekend picks against the spread (ATS)

Fantastic rebound last week!  3-1 as the Pats, ATL over, and KC under hit.  Lost the GB-Dal under bet but I’ll take a 3/4 weekend any time.

This is usually a depressing weekend as this is the last day with multiple games on the slate.  2 weeks and then the Superbowl, which is more of an event than a game so enjoy today!

Aaron Rodgers has been out of this world, singlehandedly carrying his team throughout the season and the playoffs.  That throw to Jared Cook to set up the FG, wow.  They enter the Georgia Dome, which is hosting its last game ever.  Matt Ryan and the high flying Falcons (pun intended) have lit up the scoreboard like Leo DiCaprio at a Hooters audition.  Julio Jones is a bit dinged up.  Aaron Rodgers and some of the Packers had the flu this week.  That’s why the line jumped up today.  Looks like Jordy Nelson and Davonte Adams are a go.  Everyone loves the over and that’s at 61, 61!  Second highest o/u in the history of playoffs.  I think the Pack grinds the clock down with dinking and dunking, keeping the ball out of the Falcons hands as long as possible.  I also think you should never bet against Aaron Rodgers, even if he develops leprosy.  Matt Ryan gags it up in the big spot and the Pack are the team that’s on that magic carpet ride that usually goes on to win the Superbowl.  Aaron Rodgers and I’m getting 5 points (now 6!)?  

I’m taking the Pack and the points.  I may go with the under if it gets to 62…

2 of the worst things possible happened this past week for the Steelers.  The Pats had a lazy (yet covered the -16) win over the Texans. You know Bellichek kicked their asses in practice this week.  You think Tom Brady went home happy with 2 picks in that game?  He probably sent Giselle to Washington to march so he could get more time in practice.  And then Antonio Brown stupidly airs the locker room talk from Tomlin?  That’s been on the Patriot’s bulletin board all week.  Both of these factors have awakened the sleeping giant.  Bellichek ALWAYS takes away the best player(s) so the Pats will be keyed on Bell and Brown.  Let’s also consider how Ben and the boys fare poorly in Foxboro, 1-3.  Ben has as many TDs as INTs in NE, not good.  

I’m taking the Pats -6: Brady and the boys win by double digits

 

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Divisional Playoff picks ATS

Well folks, we’re right in the thick of the NFL playoffs.  Sorry I didn’t get an article to you last week but if you follow me on FB, you would’ve seen my elephant shit picks.  Ugh, the only one I got right was the Seattle under, 1-3 for the weekend.  The Pitt over almost hit and my dad always said, there’s no such thing as half pregnant.  I went with Oakland and the rookie QB, Connor Cook.  I thought Brock Osweiller would be worse but he did enough to cover.  The Giants wide receivers forgot how to catch except they were able to catch a flight to hang out with Justin Bieber.  Seriously, if you’re going to take a mini-vacation during an off day, the last thing I’m doing is hanging out with that little fruit.  I’d rather hang out with Justin Verlander so I can hopefully see Kate Upton topless and those massive…acting chops.  

Let’s talk gambling for this week:  I took the ATL over last night and sweated out the Patriots -16 so 2-0 for the week so far.  First game today is GB/Dal. You can truly make a case for both: Aaron Rodgers is hotter than gonorrhea and Emily Rajakowski (I’d still do her if she had an std AND make her a mixtape.)  Dallas can run the ball on anyone, has had 2 weeks of rest, but has a rookie QB at the helm. GB is without Jordy Nelson but that didn’t stop Rodgers from dismantling the Giants in the 2nd half.  The stats are favoring both teams (Dallas is 5-0 SU at home and 9/10 vs GB at home while GB is 5/5 SU.  The last 5/5 have gone over for GB.)  Here’s what I think: I think Dallas plays ball control and runs that ball down their throats and is able to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands. 

God, I hope Dallas loses cause there would be nothing worse than a Patriots/Dallas Superbowl.  I’d have to root for a meteor to fall just like I did when the Patriots played the Eagles.

I’m leaning GB but I locked in:

GB Under 53

I don’t mind the Chiefs nor the Steelers but let’s be honest: the ONLY team in the AFC who has a chance of knocking off the Pats (and they did look a little vulnerable last night) are the Steelers.  The problem though is Pittsburgh on the road isn’t as good.  And Andy Reid off a bye 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in the regular season.  In the playoffs: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Wow, pretty solid numbers.  Pitt outside of the eastern time zone is 6-14.  But man, it’s certainly hard to bet against Ben.  The line is KC-2 but I’m a hell of a lot more sold on these facts: KC have gone UNDER in 6/7 at home and Pitt has gone 6/7 UNDER on the road.  It’s freezing cold and the game got moved because of an ice storm that was supposed to hit KC.  So this is a no-brainer for me to take: 

KC under 44.5

by Categories: UncategorizedTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

107271

This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

by Categories: NFL picks, UncategorizedTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Week 6 picks ATS

107271

5-4-1 last week kids which makes it 2 weeks in a row of being a winner.  Let’s see if we can build on 2 winning weeks:

As the old saying goes, you learn by getting burned.  I learned to NEVER go against Bellichek at home, even when he’s trotting out a 3rd string QB.  Pats are fresh off of a Tom Brady-led thrashing of Cleveland.  Now he’s back home against the Bengals who are fresh off of getting demolished in Dallas.  The Bengals haven’t shown me shit except for they can beat Miami.  Whoopty-fucking-do, so can me and 10 other comedian friends of mine.  Brady’s first home game after deflate gate and if you don’t think that crowd won’t be bloodthirsty like the ones of the Roman Colliseum, you must be wondering how the Massholes got their name.  Tyler Eiffert out for Cincy and Edelman as well as Blount are questionable but I would expect they’re going.  The line is now NE -7.5 and the Pats are 30-10 ATS while at home when the line is <10.  Cincy defense hasn’t been as special as it was in years past and did I mention Tom Brady is still in “Fuck You” mode?

I’m taking the Pats -7.5

Saints are back from the bye and in marches in a wounded Panthers team.  Saints D is worse than white dogshit and the Panthers D ain’t what it was a year ago.  Fun fact: Carolina is 11-4 ATS in NO which makes me take pause.  The line is hovering around 2.5 and if it were to get to 3.5, I may be inclined to take the Saints.  But rule #1 of gambling is don’t be a hero, just win money.  And I think the over of 53.5 is certainly attainable.  

I’m taking Saints over 53

The Browns are bad.  But when you break it down, they’ve lost in double digits to 2 decent teams and nearly beat 2 average teams.  And we all had Miami as the suicide pick with our collective assholes puckered when the Browns lost in OT. The Titans are by no means good.  Browns have a few guys who are questionable but this line is wayyyy high.  I’m talking Snoop Dogg on 4/20 at 4:20 high.  You want evidence?  Fine, Tennessee has covered in FOUR of their last 23 home games.  Now, if you can lock it in now at +7 or above, do it!  It may drop closer to game time.  A lot of people are putting Tennessee as their suicide pick and I didn’t because this screams trap game.  And do you want to put your faith in the Titans?  Not me.  I should say that I’m not loading up on this game and nor should you.

I’m taking the Browns +7

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye.  Reid is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS after the week off and he goes into the Black Hole where the Raiders have been hot.  Raiders D is cold diarrhea but that offense is delightful.  The lines range from 1.5-2.5 and you better believe the Chiefs are playing ball control.  No way then can match scores with Oakland.  But everyone rested up for the Chiefs and they can win by a FG.  The cholos in Oakland go home disappointed as KC pulls out a road win.

I’m taking KC +2

The statement game of the week: Are the Falcons as good as people are starting to think?  I think they’re good but this is the ultimate test.  Russell Wilson destroyed the Jets secondary with a gimpy leg and now he’s had a bye to rest up.  Let’s also add that the Hawks are home.  Now, the Falcons went into Denver and just manhandled that vaunted Denver D.  But I think Sea off the bye and home is too much for the Falcons.  The line is a manageable -6 and let’s remember we’re a short memory away from Matt Ryan throwing picks like Slash at the end of a concert.  Take a moment, you’ll get that joke.

I’m taking Sea -6

If you took Andrew Luck in fantasy, that sucks to be you.  He’s been sacked 20 times already in 5 games.  Lamar Miller HAS to break out sometime and no better time than against an awful Indy D who’s allowing a robust 29.6 a game.  Indy D gives it up more than a teenage runaway in a bus stop bathroom.  2 more fun facts: Indy is 0-3 ATS on the road this year.  Hou is 3-0 ATS when at home.  

I’m taking Hou -3

 

by Categories: Fantasy Football, NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment