NFL Divisional Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

I’ll take my usual bow at the beginning of the column and say yet again, another fantastic week for Herr Gootee.  3-0 last week as the Jax first half under, Saints over, and KC under (thought I had a clenched asshole for the last hour of that game) all came in to cover.  This week, I think it’s a harder crop of games as the numbers are a bit wonky.  Does Tom Brady and the Pats take all the bulletin board material (Discourse in the Pats locker room and Titans safety talking shit) and go into pure, “fuck you” mode?   Do the Vikings take one more step to becoming the first team in a Super Bowl that hosts the game?  Do Eagle fans continue their streak of shitting the bed while their white trash, vile fans create a riot after their backup QB loses the game?  I’ll bet the ranch and your ranch that they’ll do that if Philly loses well because, a tiger doesn’t change his stripes.  Onto the picks.

The aforementioned white trash wasteland known as Philadelphia hosts the red hot (yes, you read that right) Atlanta Falcons at the Stink this weekend.  Atlanta has had to damn near win out while Philly has been on autopilot for 3 weeks, including a bye.  But, in the 2 games Philly has played, they’ve combined for 19 points.  Yes, one was meaningless in week 17 but not a good look when you’re prepping for the playoffs, especially with a backup QB.  The line is 3 so let’s break that down: Home field is 3 points so what this is saying to me is that on a neutral field Matt Ryan and Nick Foles are considered even?  Get the fuck out of here.  Yes, I know it’s a dome team out in the cold where those teams are 4-24 in January.  And I know Atlanta has been on the road for 4/5 of their last games.  But the Atlanta defense can hold down NICK FOLES.  And can you say with confidence that you’re going to put money.  On Nick Foles.  In a playoff game?

I think people are afraid to call Philly a paper tiger as there has never been #1 seed that’s an underdog.  But, let’s also look at numbers: Atlanta under, 5/5.  4/5 under on the road. 9/12 under against Philly and 5/7 under in Philly.  Lastly, Philly has been under in 5/7. Let’s also add that it’s cold there today in the city that considers grade D shaved meat with synthetic cheese a “gourmet experience.”  I think both teams start off slow and try to figure each other out so…

I took first half under 20 and I’ll buy the .5 to get Atlanta at -2.5

Tom Brady is butthurt that Jimmy Garrapolo could have been a threat to his legacy so he had him shipped off.  This is some real Sopranos shit here; didn’t Tony debate about having Christopher knocked off because he also viewed him as a threat?  Don’t flood my inbox with corrections because I haven’t watched the show since it unceremoniously ended in one of the laziest endings ever written.  I know Montana was getting upset that Steve Young was about to and did take his job.  But only time will tell if Jimmy G meets up to everyone’s lofty expectations.  And why does every male sportscaster have to swoon about his looks.  Guys, calm down with that.  Women went gaga over Derek Jeter.  I went gaga because he delivered clutch hits in October so let’s leave it at that.  

The 13.5 is quite lofty and the Pats rarely get backdoored (go ahead and insert your lazy butt sex reference in here, I’m trying to bang out this column before I appear on a podcast to talk about Comics Watching Comics for the umpteenth time this week.  Fuck it, I’ll shoehorn a plug into my own column.)  The Pats have outscored opponents in the 2nd half, 66-18, in their last 3 playoff games.  Meaning they don’t take the foot off the gas.  BUT the Pats against the run are like Alabama fans in SAT scores, dead last.  Derrick Henry ran all over the Chiefs so expect the Pats to key in on him.  That leaves Corey Davis, Erick Decker, and Delanie Walker left as the main options for Marcus Mariota.  Do any of them get your dick hard?  Me neither but I think the Titans can chase points and keep it closer and make Brady throw it late in the game; facing the Titans 24th ranked pass D.  But would I be shocked if this game ends up 35-14?  Nope.  So what am I saying?  I’m saying the Pats are 7/10 over at home, I’m saying Tenn in NE has been over 6/7.  I’m saying Tenn and NE has gone over 7/10 at home.

Pats/Titans over 48 is the play.

Pittsburgh gets a chance to redeem themselves after Ben gave it up more than a black family at a high school graduation.  Jesus, I wish my parents hooted and yelled that loud.  The only thing they yelled was, “Get a fucking job because interns don’t get paid shit.”  This next handicap is really based on the eye test and some stats.  Blake Bortles was fucking ghastly last week, having more rushing yards than throwing yards.  At home.  In 60 degree weather.  Only time that’s ever happened is when I played as Michael Vick in Madden.  And this was against a mediocre Bills defense.  So what do you think is going to happen when he’s in Pittsburgh.  In 20 degree weather.  Facing a team with a solid pass rush.  Yeah, not much.  

I see both teams running the ball as each team’s rush defense isn’t stellar.  In fact, Jax run d is 30th!  Plus, I think they’ll want to slowly dip their toes in the water and not air it out early as Bortles is always a nanosecond from going full Bortles.  And Ben got picked 5 times.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Jax is surprisingly successful in Pittsburgh, 12-5 and recently 4-1 ATS.  Pitt is 1-5 of late and 1-4 at home.  Again, the eye test screams Pitt but they’ve also been known to play to the level of their competition.  Jax under has hit 4/6 on the road and 15/23.  Pitt at home has gone over 5/6 and 5/7 recently.  I think Pitt is going to win and probably cover as well as go under but I’m going to go with my gut when I put my money down.

And my gut says take the first half under again.  I don’t have a number yet but I’m taking it.

Lastly, the Saints head to Minnesota where everyone and their mothers love the Vikings. And why not?  The numbers of the Vikings have been insanely 1 sided.  Vikes are 11-4-1 ATS and I’ve made a ton of money betting on them.  They have a great defense: 276 ypg average, 10.6 pig, and +137 yds over an opponent at home.  But the Saints (who I have to win the NFC at 6/1) despite being 1-4 ATS of late, do have some success on the road, 12-5-1 on the road ATS.  They are 2-4 in Minnesota, and 2-7 against Minnesota.  If this game gets to 6 or more, I may take it.  I may take the over 48 as recently, 4/6 have gone over and 6/7 over in Minnesota.  BUT the Saints are under 4/6 on the road.  Man, so many conflicting stats.  I just may see how I do and then go on my gut.  But there’s one stat that stares at me square in the eyes, THIS IS THE BIGGEST GAME THAT CASE KEENUM HAS PLAYED IN.

Probably the over and possibly the Saints…depending on the numbers.

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Week 16 NFL picks ATS

Hope you’re ready to enjoy Christmas and hope you paid for those gifts with FREEEE MONEY!  When you’re hot, you’re hot.  4-3 last week as I took TB under this past monday night to push me over .500 for the week.  Guys, I haven’t had a losing week in 7 weeks.  Just saying.  We’re getting to the fantasy championship/players getting rested/ time of year so the number of plays will get smaller and by next week, it’s going to be only a slight few.  But I have a few in mind so here we go:

The wife beater currently known as Ezekiel Elliot is back for the Cowgirls and Dallas is holding onto a microcosm of hope to make the playoffs.  In comes the rape victim from week 15 known as the Seattle Seahawks.  And who had the Rams as the pick of the week last week?  YOU’RE WELCOME.  Jesus, I put out more than your moms.  2 weeks, 2 mom jokes.  How much confidence do you have in Seattle?  The correct answer is very little.  Usually, the Seahawks destroy in the month of December but it looks like the Legion of Boom went bust.  That defense has been beaten up more than Jim J Bullock’s asshole.  Wow, what a deep cut.  Pulling out an F list celebrity from the 80’s in this column, check.  Dallas is 7-2 ATS vs Sea and 5-2 ATS vs Seattle.  More stats? Sure.  Seattle is 2-5-1 of late and 3-7-1 on the road.  Not very awe inspiring.  And now, a Montell Jordan reference for you. “The party’s hype and the number’s right. Drinking 40’s here on the west side.”

Take Dallas -5 cause this is how we do it.

The Buffalo Bills are smack in the middle of the playoffs, despite the Nathan Peterman experiment.  Doesn’t that sound like the name of a shitty emo band?  I know, ALL EMO IS SHITTY, KEVIN.  The Bills go into Foxboro where the Pats really haven’t felt like the PATS this year.  They got insanely lucky (including me having under 54 last week) with that win.  The Bills NEED this game and the Pats haven’t blown anyone out in awhile (3 weeks). The Bills A) got beat by 20 and will most definitely B) use this as a revenge game for the Gronkowski cheap shot.  11.5 is just too many damn points so take the team who needs the game pretty bad.  And oh yeah, more fun facts.  The Bills hit the under 5/7 on the road, 4/6 under in NE.  And the Pats of late are also not putting up points as the under has hit 4/5.  Hogan is doubtful and Burkhead is out.  And oh yeah, Bellichik is 47% ATS when laying double digits.

So let’s double down and take the Bills +11.5 and the under 47.

Pittsburgh lost a potential dream crusher last week.  Pittsburgh sucks mastodon scrotum on the road.  Pittsburgh of late is 1-5 ATS.  I know, Houston isn’t much better, 2-5 ATS of late.  But 9 is too many and Pittsburgh plays to the level of their opponent.  And oh yeah, the best WR in football is out for the game.  If you don’t know who that is or disagree with me, you shouldn’t be reading this column.

Take the Texans +9 and cross your fingers.

The Saints fucked me not once but twice.  Not nice for a team named after a celestial figure.  The Saints couldn’t cover and bury Bryce Petty?  And then Mark Ingram, in clock killing mode, breaks off a long touchdown to burn me on the under.  Shame on me for laying 16.5.  The Saints lost to the Falcons 3 weeks ago (another one that I called.  Time for me to get my own show, goddamnit!) and I think they have revenge on their mind.  The Saints also want to get that division sewn up because they know KG has them 6/1 to win the NFC so let’s not monkey around.  Saints have 9 wins by 10 points or more.  Atlanta in a short week BARELY beat the Bucs on (had the under so yep, taking a bow again.)  Falcons D has given up 7 TDs in the last 3 weeks and only one pick.  Matt Ryan also not doing that much this year.  

The Saints come marching in all over the Falcons, -5. 

Tampa Bay almost tied it up with a 56 yd FG attempt on monday night.  Thank god that kick fell like an Italian man, a foot or 2 short.  Cause my under would have been cooked.  Here’s a fun fact: Tampa is 13-4 as an over when they’re a double digit underdog.  TB has a TON of injuries on defense and even if they were healthy, they weren’t that got.  But TB has hit 7/8 unders on the road.  Carolina has hit the over 5/5.  Panthers also 5/6 over at home.  I like Carolina to win and if it can get to under 10, I’ll jump on it.  But for now, it’s just going to be…

Carolina over 46.5

Not a full lock but I’m highly convinced about this game.  One garbage fan base flies across country to visit the biggest garbage fan base.  Raiders in Philly and Philly looking for that 1 seed.  Foles crushed it in his season debut and he better crush it against the Black and Silver because I have him in my fantasy championship.  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  I don’t see the Raiders giving 2 shits about this game after they lost the way they did.  They’re flying cross country and playing Christmas night?  The Eagles may roll early and then sit Foles.  But I don’t see the Raiders showing up so let’s end this Christmas night with.

Philly under 47

 

NFL Conference Championship weekend picks against the spread (ATS)

Fantastic rebound last week!  3-1 as the Pats, ATL over, and KC under hit.  Lost the GB-Dal under bet but I’ll take a 3/4 weekend any time.

This is usually a depressing weekend as this is the last day with multiple games on the slate.  2 weeks and then the Superbowl, which is more of an event than a game so enjoy today!

Aaron Rodgers has been out of this world, singlehandedly carrying his team throughout the season and the playoffs.  That throw to Jared Cook to set up the FG, wow.  They enter the Georgia Dome, which is hosting its last game ever.  Matt Ryan and the high flying Falcons (pun intended) have lit up the scoreboard like Leo DiCaprio at a Hooters audition.  Julio Jones is a bit dinged up.  Aaron Rodgers and some of the Packers had the flu this week.  That’s why the line jumped up today.  Looks like Jordy Nelson and Davonte Adams are a go.  Everyone loves the over and that’s at 61, 61!  Second highest o/u in the history of playoffs.  I think the Pack grinds the clock down with dinking and dunking, keeping the ball out of the Falcons hands as long as possible.  I also think you should never bet against Aaron Rodgers, even if he develops leprosy.  Matt Ryan gags it up in the big spot and the Pack are the team that’s on that magic carpet ride that usually goes on to win the Superbowl.  Aaron Rodgers and I’m getting 5 points (now 6!)?  

I’m taking the Pack and the points.  I may go with the under if it gets to 62…

2 of the worst things possible happened this past week for the Steelers.  The Pats had a lazy (yet covered the -16) win over the Texans. You know Bellichek kicked their asses in practice this week.  You think Tom Brady went home happy with 2 picks in that game?  He probably sent Giselle to Washington to march so he could get more time in practice.  And then Antonio Brown stupidly airs the locker room talk from Tomlin?  That’s been on the Patriot’s bulletin board all week.  Both of these factors have awakened the sleeping giant.  Bellichek ALWAYS takes away the best player(s) so the Pats will be keyed on Bell and Brown.  Let’s also consider how Ben and the boys fare poorly in Foxboro, 1-3.  Ben has as many TDs as INTs in NE, not good.  

I’m taking the Pats -6: Brady and the boys win by double digits

 

NFL Divisional Playoff picks ATS

Well folks, we’re right in the thick of the NFL playoffs.  Sorry I didn’t get an article to you last week but if you follow me on FB, you would’ve seen my elephant shit picks.  Ugh, the only one I got right was the Seattle under, 1-3 for the weekend.  The Pitt over almost hit and my dad always said, there’s no such thing as half pregnant.  I went with Oakland and the rookie QB, Connor Cook.  I thought Brock Osweiller would be worse but he did enough to cover.  The Giants wide receivers forgot how to catch except they were able to catch a flight to hang out with Justin Bieber.  Seriously, if you’re going to take a mini-vacation during an off day, the last thing I’m doing is hanging out with that little fruit.  I’d rather hang out with Justin Verlander so I can hopefully see Kate Upton topless and those massive…acting chops.  

Let’s talk gambling for this week:  I took the ATL over last night and sweated out the Patriots -16 so 2-0 for the week so far.  First game today is GB/Dal. You can truly make a case for both: Aaron Rodgers is hotter than gonorrhea and Emily Rajakowski (I’d still do her if she had an std AND make her a mixtape.)  Dallas can run the ball on anyone, has had 2 weeks of rest, but has a rookie QB at the helm. GB is without Jordy Nelson but that didn’t stop Rodgers from dismantling the Giants in the 2nd half.  The stats are favoring both teams (Dallas is 5-0 SU at home and 9/10 vs GB at home while GB is 5/5 SU.  The last 5/5 have gone over for GB.)  Here’s what I think: I think Dallas plays ball control and runs that ball down their throats and is able to keep the ball out of Rodgers hands. 

God, I hope Dallas loses cause there would be nothing worse than a Patriots/Dallas Superbowl.  I’d have to root for a meteor to fall just like I did when the Patriots played the Eagles.

I’m leaning GB but I locked in:

GB Under 53

I don’t mind the Chiefs nor the Steelers but let’s be honest: the ONLY team in the AFC who has a chance of knocking off the Pats (and they did look a little vulnerable last night) are the Steelers.  The problem though is Pittsburgh on the road isn’t as good.  And Andy Reid off a bye 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in the regular season.  In the playoffs: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.  Wow, pretty solid numbers.  Pitt outside of the eastern time zone is 6-14.  But man, it’s certainly hard to bet against Ben.  The line is KC-2 but I’m a hell of a lot more sold on these facts: KC have gone UNDER in 6/7 at home and Pitt has gone 6/7 UNDER on the road.  It’s freezing cold and the game got moved because of an ice storm that was supposed to hit KC.  So this is a no-brainer for me to take: 

KC under 44.5

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

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This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

NFL Week 6 picks ATS

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5-4-1 last week kids which makes it 2 weeks in a row of being a winner.  Let’s see if we can build on 2 winning weeks:

As the old saying goes, you learn by getting burned.  I learned to NEVER go against Bellichek at home, even when he’s trotting out a 3rd string QB.  Pats are fresh off of a Tom Brady-led thrashing of Cleveland.  Now he’s back home against the Bengals who are fresh off of getting demolished in Dallas.  The Bengals haven’t shown me shit except for they can beat Miami.  Whoopty-fucking-do, so can me and 10 other comedian friends of mine.  Brady’s first home game after deflate gate and if you don’t think that crowd won’t be bloodthirsty like the ones of the Roman Colliseum, you must be wondering how the Massholes got their name.  Tyler Eiffert out for Cincy and Edelman as well as Blount are questionable but I would expect they’re going.  The line is now NE -7.5 and the Pats are 30-10 ATS while at home when the line is <10.  Cincy defense hasn’t been as special as it was in years past and did I mention Tom Brady is still in “Fuck You” mode?

I’m taking the Pats -7.5

Saints are back from the bye and in marches in a wounded Panthers team.  Saints D is worse than white dogshit and the Panthers D ain’t what it was a year ago.  Fun fact: Carolina is 11-4 ATS in NO which makes me take pause.  The line is hovering around 2.5 and if it were to get to 3.5, I may be inclined to take the Saints.  But rule #1 of gambling is don’t be a hero, just win money.  And I think the over of 53.5 is certainly attainable.  

I’m taking Saints over 53

The Browns are bad.  But when you break it down, they’ve lost in double digits to 2 decent teams and nearly beat 2 average teams.  And we all had Miami as the suicide pick with our collective assholes puckered when the Browns lost in OT. The Titans are by no means good.  Browns have a few guys who are questionable but this line is wayyyy high.  I’m talking Snoop Dogg on 4/20 at 4:20 high.  You want evidence?  Fine, Tennessee has covered in FOUR of their last 23 home games.  Now, if you can lock it in now at +7 or above, do it!  It may drop closer to game time.  A lot of people are putting Tennessee as their suicide pick and I didn’t because this screams trap game.  And do you want to put your faith in the Titans?  Not me.  I should say that I’m not loading up on this game and nor should you.

I’m taking the Browns +7

Death, taxes, and Andy Reid off the bye.  Reid is 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS after the week off and he goes into the Black Hole where the Raiders have been hot.  Raiders D is cold diarrhea but that offense is delightful.  The lines range from 1.5-2.5 and you better believe the Chiefs are playing ball control.  No way then can match scores with Oakland.  But everyone rested up for the Chiefs and they can win by a FG.  The cholos in Oakland go home disappointed as KC pulls out a road win.

I’m taking KC +2

The statement game of the week: Are the Falcons as good as people are starting to think?  I think they’re good but this is the ultimate test.  Russell Wilson destroyed the Jets secondary with a gimpy leg and now he’s had a bye to rest up.  Let’s also add that the Hawks are home.  Now, the Falcons went into Denver and just manhandled that vaunted Denver D.  But I think Sea off the bye and home is too much for the Falcons.  The line is a manageable -6 and let’s remember we’re a short memory away from Matt Ryan throwing picks like Slash at the end of a concert.  Take a moment, you’ll get that joke.

I’m taking Sea -6

If you took Andrew Luck in fantasy, that sucks to be you.  He’s been sacked 20 times already in 5 games.  Lamar Miller HAS to break out sometime and no better time than against an awful Indy D who’s allowing a robust 29.6 a game.  Indy D gives it up more than a teenage runaway in a bus stop bathroom.  2 more fun facts: Indy is 0-3 ATS on the road this year.  Hou is 3-0 ATS when at home.  

I’m taking Hou -3