NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 10 ATS picks

Nothing to say but a a disappointing last 2 weeks here and believe me, no one more broken up about this than me. 2-3 last week, bringing me to a total of 29-25 and 54% for the year. We’re slightly above the break even point of 52.5% so I’m be damned if I fall to that level. But before we get into the picks, a shameless plug. If you haven’t bought tickets yet for our live Gutting the Sacred Cow show, please do so. And don’t worry, you’ll get refunded if Covid shuts everything down. I’m running low on time so no horseshit, here we go. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

NEVER bet the NY Giants…unless you’re getting 10 or more points. Yes, Philly is healthier with a possible Miles Sanders return. Philly of late, 3-6 ATS, 2-5 ATS against Giants. Giants are a shocking 5-1 ATS in last 6 with a bunch of blown leads, including 1 against Philly. Line is 4, tease them to 10. And for some reason, I think they could win.

First half of the teaser Giants +10

Niners are indeed banged up but I think we’re getting too much with the number. Saints just played a perfect game against the Bucs and they may get caught looking ahead. Niners are 5-1-1 against NO and 10-3 SU on the road. Saints are 2-5 ATS in last 7. I teased the Niners to +15.5, I don’t think they lose by more than 2 TDs.

Second half Niners +15.5

There is a wind warning in Cleveland, up to 60 mph. Texans are ABYSMAL in the run plus they’re getting Chubb back. They’re gonna take less chances with Baker fresh off the Covid list. Browns last 8/9 have gone UNDER against Houston and under 6/7 in November.

Teased Browns under to 51.5

Bills over 7/9 of late and 7/7 against NFC west. AZ over 5/6 against Buff and 5/5 in November. Both defenses stink so let’s bring that number down to below 50.

Teased Bills over to 49.5

Arizona disappointed me on 2 tickets last week and again, that defense stinks. They’re ripe for a backdoor, let alone losing outright. AZ 5-14-1 SU at home and 3-6 ATS against AFC east. Bills 6-1 ATS against AZ, 7-2 SU of late. Give me more than a TD against a porous defense, done.

Teased Bills to +9

Chargers have been the heartbreak team of the last 2 years. They’ve lost 3 games when having a lead of 17 or more. They should’ve won last week against the Raiders with a late TD that got called off. Chargers are 4-9 ATS of late, Miami 6-1 of late and 5-1 at home. But I think the Chargers do not lose by more than a TD. They’ll find a way to fuck it up late but not by more than 7. BTW, Herbert one of the best against the blitz and Miami blitzes ~40% of the time.

Teased Chargers to +8

Pats BARELY beat the Jets, thank god I teased them to 1.5 Bal 13-5-1 of late, 17-3 SU of late, and 10-0 SU on the road. Also, 6-0 ATS against AFC east. Pats are 1-4 ATS and SU of late. 2-5 ATS of late as well but we’re not going to get cute, we’re teasing this one to…

Teased Ravens to .5

Denver defense stinks as does the Raiders defense. Broncos over 4/5 of late, Raiders over 7/8 of late. Lock is getting a ton of garbage time fantasy and regular points. Den bottom 5 in sack and QB hit rate. Oakland no slouch…themselves.

Teased Den Over to 44.5

Haven’t locked in yet but will probably take the Rams

McVay 4-1 against Sea. Seattle 1-5 SU in LA. Rams 6-3 SU of late, 5-0 SU at home