Tag: los angeles chargers

NFL Super Bowl 2019 ATS picks

The Super Bowl is truly bittersweet for me.  On one end, this signifies the end of the NFL season.  It also signifies the end of the freeeeeee money printing press that’s been in my house since week 1.  Even though I went 1-2 last week, (took the Saints under but lost the teaser and KC under.  How the fuck did they beat me when the halftime score was 14-0 and the OU was 56?  Wow.) I’m still 60% (72/120) for the year.  That’s pretty damn solid, a high water mark for my career.  And for the finale of the season, I’m only taking the side in this game, I’m not sure about the total but I’m leaning under.  What I do have are 7 prop bets.  I’m not counting those against my W/L record for the season.  Here we go: 

What did we learn 2 weeks ago?  The rumor of the Pats death is greatly exaggerated.  Brady did what he does best, score with the opposing team giving him too much time.  Andy Reid is the worst clock manager, worse than any Jets head coach.  Fun fact, the Pats fans will travel to the game, Rams fans barely show up at home.  You think they’re getting on a 6 hour flight?  I don’t.  

The worst thing the Rams have going against the are the Pats lost to the Eagles last year.  Brady is looking to getting another ring before considering retirement.  He says he’s not but his abilities have definitely shown regression.  I’ll lay the load on Gronkowski retiring this season, ESPECIALLY if they win.  I always back up my handicaps with numbers: 4-1 SU in their last 5, 8-4 ATS.  5-0 SU vs the Rams, 5-1 ATS but to be fair, this was pre-McVay.  I will also say that after each of their first 2 Super bowl losses, they won their next appearance in the Super bowl.  Yes, the Super bowl dogs are 13-4 ATS and 6/7 winning outright.  Pats are not the bet in the Super bowl, 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS.  BUT the Pats are 8-0 against playoff teams this year.  How do you beat Brady?  Putting him on his back more than your mother.  Just ask my NY football Giants.  The Rams DO have those pass rushers in Suh and Donald who can get the QB.  But Brady faced ZERO pressure from the Chiefs who have a decent pass rush.  When was the last the Patriots bad loss?  Against the Titans…in October.  And the Chargers D got buttfucked with their zone defense against the Pats run.  So if the Rams are going to win, it’s because the D got Brady and maybe got a turnover or 2.

But remember, betting the NUMBER wins you games, not the team.  I jumped on this bet an hour after the AFC game was over but as of Sat night, it’s 2.5.  If you’re liking the Pats, jump on it now.  I did because when they do win, they barely win.  It’s less than a FG.  And Bellichick gets 2 weeks to prep for Jared Goff who was ok vs the Cowboys but good (especially in the 2nd half) vs the Saints.  The Pats players combined for over 60 Super Bowl games of experience.  The Rams?  2.  The newness/inexperience for the Rams players will put them at a disadvantage.  Oh yeah, Todd Gurley was AWFUL against the Saints.  He’s obviously pretty hobbled.  For the Patriots, this routine is as easy for them as Sunday morning, deflate balls, or tape other teams practices.  This is the last one for the Patriots.  It makes me sick having to bet them again but I might as well financially capitalize on them winning.  It will be the Rams’s time soon, just not yet.

I bet the Pats -1.5 

After Julian Edelman, who is Brady’s best pass catcher? James White by a landslide.  He had 15 catches vs the Chargers but 4 vs KC.  He had 97 yds vs LAC, 49 vs KC.  I just see them dinking and dunking against the Rams D.  They’re not stretching the field with the lack of deep threat and Brady’s arm is weaker.  So you can bet that White is getting his catches and yards.  And remember, he decimated the Falcons in the Superbowl 2 years ago with a 14 for 110 yds performance.

James White over 6 catches, James White over 52.5 receiving yards.

This game will be close so feel free to take YES on:

Game will be tied again after 0-0.  

Pats D combined 24 1Q points in their 8 Super bowl games.  Pats have scored 3 TOTAL points in those 8 first quarters.  Rams also push the pedal down in the 2nd half, not the first half.

1Q under 10.5

This happens nearly EVERY year.  Teams get looser after half time, break out the gadget plays.  MOST teams play it conservatively in the first half and defenses begin to tire in the second half.

More scores in the 2nd half than 1st, -.5

I know I said above that the Pats are notoriously SLOW starters with 3 pts in ALL of the first quarters in their Super bowl appearances.  For some reason, I think they’re going to slightly outscore the Rams early as the Rams will be a bundle of nerves, especially in the first quarter.

Pats -.5 in the 1Q

Julian Edelman in 7 of the last 11 over 79.5 yards.  In the playoffs, 10/12 over 79.5 receiving yards.  Roby-Fullman (the guy who popped the Saints WR where no PI was called) will be most likely covering Edelman.  Gronk won’t be getting the main passing yards and Hogan/Dorsett aren’t the big targets.  Definitely Brady’s security blanket, he didn’t play last year, and he missed 4 games this year.  He’ll want to make a name for himself this Superbowl.

Edelman over 82.5 yds

OVER National Anthem time.  People know the length via rehearsal, hence why it’s so high on over.

OVER 3 times I poop Monday morning from all of the awful food.  

UNDER 9 Tito’s and club.  I have to drive home and be responsible.  

OVER 8.5 times I say throughout the night that the next time I watch an NFL game will be in Vegas.

And if you’re wondering my box numbers, here they are:

Rams 5, Pats 8

Rams 4, Pats 8

Rams 8, Pats 0

Rams 3, Pats 1

Rams 9, Pats 1

Rams 1, Pats 0

Rams 2, Pats 5

Rams 0, Pats 4

Good luck in the last game of the year.  The next time I’m betting football, I’ll be in Vegas. And I hope you are too.

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NFL Divisional Round Playoffs 2018 Picks ATS

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My favorite quote is, “A rich man never has to tell anyone he’s rich.”  Everyone’s going to know you’ve got cash/power/whatever you crave by the way you act and carry yourself.  Words to live by.  My second favorite quote is by Walter Payton when asked why he doesn’t do a touchdown dance after scoring and just hands the ball to the ref: “Act like you’ve been there before.”  Brilliant.  You ever sit in first class on a plane and then see the obvious people who’ve never sat there before?  Taking selfies.  Calling their friends, loudly saying how they’re in first class and “OMG, I just got a hot towel and cocktail.  WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT!  Hashtag livin that balla life.”  Yuck.  Act like you’ve been there before.  That’s probably going to be a top 10 highlight of their life.  Which is sad.  You want to be a baller, you want to be part of the big time?  The first step is playing the part.  Act like you’ve been there before.

Even though my picks have been as hot as your sister on prom night, I’m going to implement Walter’s advice.  Even though I’ve hit an ASTRONOMICAL 61% this year, I’m just going to act like I’ve been there before.  Even though I haven’t.  Last year, I was 56%,  Pretty good.    How did I do last week?  Let’s go to the videotape! Wild card weekend, 3-0 (hit the Colts on the money line, Chargers/Seattle teaser, Seattle over) 69 out of 113 for this NFL season.  So let’s keep cashing tickets.  And when we get rich, we don’t mention a goddamn thing about it.  We just carry ourselves in such a manner while swimming in all of that FREEEEEEE MONEY!

Lock of the week:

If you’ve followed me all season, you’re going to know real fast where some of these picks land.  Cause I’m taking 2 teams that have made me a boatload of cash.  Bill Simmons has the best rule of gambling: “Don be a hero, just win money.”  And that’s what we going to do again this week.  Because I love the Saints.  And I love them home AND off a bye.  Drew Brees sat week 17 in a meaningless game.  3 weeks to rest those 40 year old bones.  The Saints are 10-4 ATS of late, 4-2 ATS at home. Saints 4-1 at home vs Philly.  Yeah, I know what you’re going to say.  The Saints offense has slowed down the last month.  You’re right, it did.  BUT how many of those games were at home?  Since 11/18 when they played Philly, they’ve had 4 games at home, one was week 17 where they rested Brees.  What did they score for those 3 home games?  48 vs Philly, 31 vs Atl, and 31 vs Pitt.  Yes, you’re ready to fire out the, “Nick Foles is back, they pulled it out of their ass in Chicago.  Watch them make a run like last year.”  Yeah, they also had home field last year.  Yep, now give me the road warrior argument.  You’re right, my NY Giants did the same thing in 06 and played one home game in 12.  So Philly got lucky with the kick against the Bears.  Do you think they’re going to hold the Saints to 15 points like the Bears?  Remember, they went through at LEAST 10 players in the secondary.  Yes, they’re beginning to gel but do you think they can stop the Saints?  At home?  After they’ve been playing live or die games EVERY week for over a month?  I don’t.  BTW, Saints have gone over with Philly 6/9 and the Saints are 9/13 at home.  Remember what I said about don’t be a hero?  Yeah, I’m going to stack the odds in my favor.  9 and 51.5 are a lot.  So what?  So let’s dance!

I teased the Saints down to -3 and over 45 but you can get them from 8 to 2 now.

The Indianapolis Colts have been a money printing press for my buddy Nick and I this week.  I daresay we’ve lost only 1 game (Jacksonville) when betting them.  They’re 10-1 since week 6.  Didn’t even sweat them on the ML last week against Hou as they went up 14-0 before I finished my first beer. Andrew Luck is playing the same way you bang your wife, lights out.  His red zone stats, stupid.  32 TDs, 1 INT.  He has run the ball way more in the last month; 4/5 games he’s rushed for 5 times or more.  Eric Ebron has more TDs that Ertz and Gronkowski?  Wow.  Marlon Mack has been a godsend to that running game as 3/5 of his last games, he’s ran for over 119 yards.  Now he gets the Chiefs defense who is DEAD LAST vs the run?  Speaking of that KC defense, they’ve given up 28 or more 4 out of their last 6.  Colts defense on the other hand given up 26 points or LESS since week 6.  Oh yeah, it snowed all night and into today in KC.  KC 6/8 under vs Indy and Indy has been under 9/13 on road. KC at home of late is 10/13. The line has dropped 1.5 points in a couple of hours so if you’re liking it, take it NOW.  I know, a dome team in the snow.  Low scoring benefits the Colts and the Chiefs at home, not good.  KC 1-5-1 ATS, 1-4 at home. KC 1-7 ATS home vs Indy.  I love the Colts, they can even win outright.  And I love them a lot more when I…

Tease the Colts to +11.  I also took the under 56.5.  

The cockroaches are out.  That’s right, Dallas fans can survive a nuclear bomb and shit, they may even survive a trip to LA.  The Rams are off the bye but those fans are like Alexandra Ocasio Cortez at a MENSA meeting, not showing up.  Since she’s busy making up numbers about taxing the rich to pay for medicare, I’ll stick to provable numbers.  The Rams have ONE cover at home and of late, 0-5-2 against the number.  4-7-2 overall ATS of late.  And why do they keep talking about Todd Gurley’s health?  If he’s healthy, no one is saying a word.  But they keep bringing it up which means he’s still banged up.  Dallas is another team that has caught lightning at the absolutely right team.  Speaking of, I’m going to shit if Dallas and Philly square off in the championship round.  God, I wish for a pandemic in each of those cities.  Anyway, Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS at the Rams.  Dallas is 4-2 ATS of late but most importantly, 6-2-1 ATS of late.  They have Zeke Elliot who is going to run through the Rams defense like Leonardo DiCaprio runs through Ford agency models.  Running=controlling the clock.  Dallas is going to keep this close.  One more fun fact that shocked me: Dak Prescott has the MOST game winning drives since 2016.  Impressive, as is getting 7.  But let’s push the odds even more in our favor…

The second half of the teaser is Dallas +13.  

 

 

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NFL picks Wildcard weekend ATS 2018

Bullying is frowned upon in today’s society.  But I’m a bully, that’s right, a bully.  I’ve bullied the shit out of my bookie for this season and ESPECIALLY in the month of December.  I went 21-5 in December, are you fucking kidding me?  81% is just out of this world.  I’m going to humblebrag these fun facts:  I’ve paid for a new mattress with all of this free money.  I paid for all my Christmas gifts with all of that free money.  I paid for a trip to the Caymans with all of this free money.  And I all ask from you, 9 loyal readers, is watch the latest and greatest season of Comics Watching Comics, Season 7, only on Amazon Video.  You’re getting the all-star panel, the people YOU voted to see on the All-Star edition.  So here it is and my promise to you, it will not disappoint.  Onto the picks.

Yes, the playoffs are a completely different animal.  Always try and find that hot team with karma in their pocket and ride them to the end.  This year, I think it’s the Saints.  Who out of the AFC?  Maybe the Colts, maybe the Chiefs.  But not the Texans.  Why?  Because the Texans may have one of the best pass rushes out there.  However, the Colts have the #1 ranked offensive line, only allowing 16 sacks in 16 games.  I think my boy Eli Manning would sell his children on the dark web or to Apple to make iPhones for that kind of protection.  The Colts have made me an absolute windfall of cash this season.  Is this a loyalty pick?  No.  Because even though they played Sunday night and they’re the first game on Saturday,  I think Andrew Luck can be the QB to possibly carry his team on his shoulders to the end.  Colts are 9-1 SU of late, 6-3 ATS on the road.  Colts are 5-0-1 in Houston and 17-7 SU vs Houston.  A more telling number: Colts were 5-2 ATS vs teams over .500.  Texans were 3-6 ATS vs teams over .500.  The line is 1.5 and if you’re taking the dog, you might as well take the money line as there is little value taking the 1.5.  

Hence why I grabbed the Colts on the ML +110.

Teasers have been working well for me this year, my first loss with a teaser was last week when GB failed to show up against Detroit.  Seattle is a team that you don’t want to face as Russell Wilson has become a comeback kid and no lead is safe enough.  Yes, Dallas has been good on defense but that defense gave up over 30 points last week to the Giants in a completely meaningless game.  No, they didn’t sit any of their regulars except Zeke.  Last I checked, Jason Garrett is not one to be trusted in the playoffs.  And along with other fans of NFC East teams, I’d like to thank Garrett for doing well this season as now Jerry is going to HAVE to give Garrett a new deal.  His piss poor clock management and abusing of timeouts are always welcome.  Seattle is one of the best running teams and Dallas is ok at stopping the run.  Seattle 4-2 ATS of late, 6-1 SU as well.  Seattle 4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 SU on the road.  Seattle 4-1 SU playing Dallas.  Seattle has went over 7/8.  I think this stays close so let’s take Seattle and tease them up to +7.  Cause if Seattle is down, they can EASILY backdoor a cover with a TD in your pocket.  But Seattle can also put up points through the air.  Doug Baldwin gives them the NFL’s best explosive pass rate when he’s on the field (12% vs 6% when he’s not).  This is also a low total, 43.5.  This game can EASILY be 24-21 and hit the over.

First part of teaser: Seattle from +1 to +7 and separately the over, 43.5

Chargers just played Baltimore 2 weeks ago (hit that under, thank you).  So now they have real time experience against Lamar Jackson.  SD stinks at home but have only 1 loss on the road this year.  5-0 SU and ATS on the road, pretty damn good.  They’re also 5–0 against teams that are in the bottom 10 of pass defenses.  The Browns just showed everyone how to exploit the Ravens defense. Chargers are 4-2 ATS in Baltimore.  Baltimore is good at home, 4-1 ATS.  And we know Phil Rivers has yet to win a big game in the playoffs.  So why not stack my odds with the second half of my teaser?  No way the Ravens win by more than a TD.

Chargers +8.5. 

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NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

Indulge me for a second.  How does talent go unrecognized for so long?  It took Breaking Bad at LEAST 5 pitches before it was made.  Do you know who pass on the role for Walter White?  John Cusack and Ferris Bueller himself.  So if it took Vince Gilligan this long to get the greatest show ever made passed, it’s going to take a long time for me to get noticed for my penchant of making picks.  And to see more of that, check out Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber on Youtube/Facebook.  

Here’s the link: 

Yeah, I’m ABSOLUTELY KILLING IT.  4-1 last week, 16-4 in 3 weeks, and 62/105 for the year.  Which translates to an insane 59% for the season.  52.5% is break even but we’re going to finish wayyy above that.  I’d love to get over 60% for the year as well as pay off this Grand Cayman trip.  Week 17 is always tricky with figuring out who is going to rest starters.  So here we go!

Lock of the week:

No shame in getting numbers to where you want them.  Houston is gunning for that sexy ass 2 seed and they need to win to have a shot at it.  Lamar Miller should be back for the Texans.  Black Bortles is back, yuck.  And he’s on the road?  Double yuck.  Jax is 2-7-2 ATS of late, 2-9 SU, 1-4-1 ATS on the road, 2-7 SU against Hou, 2-6 SU in Houston.  Houston is 5-1 SU at home, 6-2 SU at home vs Jacksonville.  Do you think Jacksonville is gonna give it their all on the road?  And against a team who wants that #2 seed?  I don’t. 

We’re teasing the Texans down to .5 so it’s a pick em.

Second half of the teaser.  Let’s pick against another team who is purely on, “I don’t give a fuck” street.  The Lions are giving as much an effort as I would trying to stop Emily Rajakowski putting her privates on mine.  Green Bay has won 2 straight after firing Mike McCarthy, who looks like he wears flip flops and socks with a backwards hat and Oakleys on a Carribbean island.  GB 4-2 ATS at home of late.  Now the Lions and the NFL’s worst pass defense come into Lambeau where they’ve been manhandled worse than anyone dating Kareem Hunt’s.  Det of late is 3-6 ATS, 5-2 on the road ATS.  More importantly, the Lions are 7-16-2 in GB, 2-23 SU in GB.  Matt Stafford on the road stinks like Joy Behar’s hoo-hah.  He was rested in the 4th quarter of last week’s game with a balky back.  He may have the same happen to him again if this game starts to get out of hand or may not even start at all.

Teasing the Packers down to -2

New OC in Minnesota loves running the ball.  That under hit with relative ease last week although Kyle Rudolph catching that hail mary at the end of the first half sent a shiver up my butthole.  The Bears come into town, also needing a win to go for the #2 seed.  They’re not going to be showing off anything to the Vikings as they may play each other next week if the Bears don’t get the 2 seed.  I don’t see Trubisky running it up on the road and no Allen Robinson (no big deal, he sucked this year for those who had him in fantasy) for the Bears.  Minnesota needs the game to make the playoffs but I really see this as a defensive game and numbers back up this statement.  Vikings under of late, 4/5 and 8/11 at home.  Bears on the road, not exactly lighting it up either.  Bears 4/5 under of late, 10/14 vs Minnesota, and 5/7 in Minnesota.  

Minnesota under 40.5

Nothing like hedging a bet, right?  I have the Bills under 6 wins for the year.  They’re currently at 5 so I’ll push if they win.  So let’s capitalize on a game where they’re going to most likely take care of business at home.  In come the Dolphins who are just as sloppy as a West Virginia family at an OK Corral.  Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road, 1-5 in Buffalo.  Buffalo is going to be colder than Lena Dunham’s other side of the bed.  Miami got deal their hopes destroyed last week and do you think they’re rallying on the road, in the cold?  I sure don’t.  Their pass defense is atrocious and is the worst when it comes to giving up big plays.  Allan is throwing the ball so that falls right into our favor.  The line is currently 5.5 but I took this last night when 6 was the number.

So I teased the Bills down to a pick em.  

Goddamnit anyway, it looks like the unthinkable has a chance to occur again.  Nick Foles and his supposedly immense penis are making Eagle fans believe that they can do the unthinkable again.  No, not class up that garbage city they play in.  If Philly wins, they could likely get in with a little help.  Now they’re going to Washington who just cut DJ Swearinger.  The Redskins ship is sinking, they have one of the worst run defenses, and the Eagle fans will infest this place Alabama fans infest cruise ships to the Bahamas.

Second half of the teaser, Eagles down to -1

As I mentioned, week 17 has a lot of teams looking to rest or keep key players out of harms way.  But they still need them to perform to build a big enough lead or win outright.  Exhibit A: The Kansas City Chiefs are home after a loss in Seattle against the Raiders.  After Gruden’s press conference Monday night; he said, “I’m glad to end the season with a win.”  Umm Jon, there’s still another game left.  Oakland is on a short week.  Also, I expect KC to roll against them but cover in the end and possibly resting starters with a shit defense?  Don’t know about that.

Take Chiefs first half -7.5

Let’s continue that trend with another team in the playoff hunt.  The Chargers are home against the recently pasted Broncos.  Vance Joseph has as good of a chance of having a job on Tuesday as well as I do laughing at a Tyler Perry film.  Again, Denver is on the road after a short week.  No Phillip Lindsay either, he just went on IR.  Eekler is back for Are the Chargers covering for the full game if they see the Chiefs are running away with their game?  Probably not.  They’ll yank their key guys and take that 5 or 6 seed.  So let’s bank on the max effort for the Chargers early.

Take the Chargers first half -3.5

Last game of the slate for me.  Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans.  They’re in a must win scenario too.  Wait, Andrew Luck goes against either a banged up Mariota who has the same amount of feeling in his body as a stroke victim?  Or even (crossing my fingers) Blaine Gabbert?  No Orakpo for the Titans on d either.  Colts are 11-3 ATS playing Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in Tennessee.  Titans are 7-3 ATS and 7-1 SU at home but I repeat, Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans.  And they’re on fire of late, especially when coming back from down 10 to the Giants last week. 

Grab the Colts -3

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Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5
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NFL Week 15 picks ATS

Well kids, I take my lumps when I deserve them.  And I take my bows when I deserve them.  Last week, I went 7-0, SEVEN AND ZERO!!!  Yep kids, TB under, Oak, KC under, Indy, Seattle, GB, and the Rams under ALL cashed. For the year, 54-39 for a whopping 58% for the year.  I did take the KC under on Thursday night which was busted with 7 seconds left in the game.  So we start 0-1 for the week and here we go.

Lock of the week is SF +4.5.  Yes, the numbers are insanely stacked against SF in past games. Seattle has been outgunned yard wise  5 out of their last6.  Niners crushed by Seattle last time they played but Niners outgained them by 127 yds.  Seattle is on a short week as well as 99% likely to make the playoffs so need to put the pedal to the metal.  Less motivation for the Seahawks and the number is right.  The line opened at 5 and now it’s 3.5 so you better snatch it up now before it gets below an advantageous spot.

SF +4.5

Next game is another where one team has the playoffs all but locked up but the other team has to fight to remain in the thick of it.  Dallas has won 5 straight, including an overtime thriller.  They’re on the road and maybe a little tired.  Dallas is going to win the division so don’t be surprised if they’re not gung ho.  Frank Reich already knows how to cover against the NFC east.  Colts 6-1 SU of late and 4-1 at home.  Again the line is at the right spot so it’s the time to grab…

Indy -2.5

Teaser time!  Remember, tease through 7 and 3.  The rest stop bathroom known as Kirk Cousins is home against Miami who just played their superbowl last week against the Pats.  Miami 2-9 ATS on the road and 2-3-1 ATS on the road.  Minnesota 17-7-1 at home ATS and 10-2 SU at home.  I’ve teased this from 7.5 down to 1.5 so it’s virtually a pick em.

Minnesota and Baltimore teased down to -1.5 each.

Last pick is another easy one, I hope. The mongrels from Philly head to LA and they’re trotting out Nick Foles. Philly hasn’t been scoring and now add that on to a pissed off Rams team that got diarrheaed on by the Bears. The Eagles aren’t scoring enough, 5/7 under of late. to bust this over so we’re going

Rams under 52.5

Bonus pick: 

Everyone and their slutty grandmother is pounding the Pittsburgh/Pats over.  It opened
at 49, now it’s 55.5.  Pats have been 5/6 under of late, 8/11 under on the road, and 4/6
when playing Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh has been 4/6 under of late.  Ben has cracked ribs to 
boot so I’m going to keep watching that number go up and then go 
Pittsburgh under 55.5 or more?
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NFL picks ATS Week 9

First off, a shameless plug for my show on Twitch TV called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  See how we do with our gambling picks as well as fantasy football recommendations.  We’ll be on next week at 6pm under the Be Terrific banner on Twitch as well as Facebook Live.

Unreal.  We’ve just turned out clocks back and as I typed out, “week 9”, I realize how time does indeed fly.  Remember how getting to your birthday, summer vacation, or losing your virginity seemed to take a lifetime?  Fuck, we’re now halfway through the NFL season.  It was only 2 months ago that my buddy and I were hopping around like idiots in Vegas where your boy went 7-1 opening weekend.  Last week, I righted the ship and went 5-3, bringing me to a robust 35-24 and more importantly to 59%.  Jesus Christ, that’s spectacular!  I hit the Colts, Skins, Pitt Over, Seattle, and the Packers as the lock of the week.  Lost the Bengals as they blew a 17 point  lead late after Fitzpatrick and his beekeeper beard returned to action and backdoored that game.  I called the Saints winning outright, wish I took them instead of the over.  The Saints over was ahead of pace at halftime but Minnesota couldn’t do dick in the second half, leaving me 4 points shy of the over.  And the Niners ALSO blew a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter against Arizona. As we know, the best laid plans…

Week NAWWWNE started off with a clunker for me as every sharp better jumped on Oakland +3 when Beathard was announced as questionable on Wednesday.  As the line went down to Oakland -1 when Beathard was ruled out, you can figure out who started to plan on spending that sweet, sweet, freeeee money.  And then a pesky little thing called, “the game” occurred.  That’s where Nick Mullen sliced and diced through that putrid Oakland defense like he was Peyton Manning in 2006.  Hell, Mullen didn’t throw his FIRST incompletion until late in the first quarter.  SF ends up blowing out the Raiders and you’ll be lucky to find someone this year to put cash on them this year, even if it’s against a bunch of bearded hipsters wearing skinny jeans with Lena Dunham as the quarterback.  The way the Raiders defense has been playing, she could do a 5 step drop back, tweet how white men are the worst, and find a “male feminist” open on a crossing route.

So 0-1 to start this week, let’s pick some winners!

Lock of the week:

Pitt 4-1, 6-3 ATS on road and 8-0-1 SU.  Baltimore got smoked in Carolina and hasn’t had their bye yet, they’re looking TIRED.   I love taking divisional teams as dogs as they know each other well and Pitt will be looking for revenge after the first matchup showed them to the loss column. The Steelers run D is morning boner solid, 5 total TDs to RBs this year
Pitt +3, now +2.5
Minnesota is back after losing to the Saints and now they get Detroit.  And if you’re the Lions, you’ve traded away a guy who caught 70% of his targets.  You’re playing a top 10 scoring defense and 6th against the pass rush.  Oh, the Vikings also have the 5th best red zone defense  I’d rather back Donald Trump at a Menudo concert than back the Lions  this week. Explain this line: If Detroit played this game at home, it would be Detroit +1?    Minn needs the game, is at home where they’re 16-7-1.  Adam Thielen doesn’t fumble, that’s a completely different game  Detroit giving up 5.5 ypc and 2nd most rushing yds in NFL, nahhhhhh
Take the Vikes and their stupid SKOL chant -5.5
My favorite game show as a kid was the Price is Right.  And boy, the price is right here.  Denver trades away it’s number 1 WR…TO THE TEAM THEY’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND? Houston is red hot and the Broncos have cracked 20 points ONCE this year.  Houston with 10 days off and Lamar Miller is running like he’s leaving Honduras behind.  2 100 yd games in back to back weeks sounds and now against the 28th ranked run defense a good enough reason for me.  Bonus reason: oh yeah, how about a run heavy team (Denver) going against the best run defense in the league (Texans). 
I have no idea why the line is a pick em but I got Houston in this week.  And if I waited a day, I could’ve had them +1.
Cleveland has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator.  At home against the white hot Chiefs, oh boy.  Cold hard fact: When a home dog is 8 ore more, the under is 21/23.  18, 23, 14, and 12.  Those are Cleveland’s last 4 games worth of points.  Yes, we know KC puts up points.  But will Cle put up their share, especially under new coaching?  I say no.
Quick and easy pick: Cleveland under 51.5
Tennessee has a top 10 defense and Dallas can’t score, except their fans score insanely high on the BMI and diabetic scores.  Seriously, how many skinny Dallas fans do you know?  That aren’t on drugs.  Or homeless.  Tennessee hasn’t allowed a RB over 80 yards and Zeke is the key to that offense.  Does Dak Prescott scare you?  As much as Ernest P Worrell did.  Dallas can win by a FG but that’s not the spread.
Take the Titans +5.  I can never pick them right but I think I figured them out for this week.
Bills stink and the Bears aren’t putting up points against the Bills defense. Low number, I know.  But this game has 20-6 written all over it.
Bills under 38.5
Games I like and may take, depending on the number.
Saints with an impressive win in Minn (I called it, you’re welcome) against the undefeated Rams.  Rams are 1-3-1 ATS and Saints are 5-0 ATS and SU.  10-1 SU at home.  Rams aren’t covering and I think the Saints eek it out in a shootout.  
Saints at home and getting 2?  Boy, I’m waiting to see if I can get to 3 but still like +2
Tampa goes into Carolina where they’re killing it SU. But against divisional opponents and the Panthers are -6 or more, they’re 0-5.  Fitzpatrick may be down but with that offense, they can backdoor it easily.  You see that commercial with JB Smoove?  It shows McCaffrey has some real acting chops.  He really convinced me like he understood what the hell JB was saying.  JB Smoove sounds like the black Swedish Chef.
Wait and see if it gets to 7 but TB +6.5 could be the play.
 It’s supposed to rain in Seattle, duh.  But Seattle is a heavy rushing offense.  Melvin Gordon is back for the Chargers so that gets them in the running spirit as well.  Chargers have gone under 6/9 on the road.  Seattle has gone under 5/6 and under 4/5 at home vs the Chargers.  
Seahawks under 47.5
Aaron Rodgers stinks on the road, he’s below 50% ATS.  Pats are back home and firing on all cylinders.  Sony Michel looks like he’s going to play.  And one of the worst names ever, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, just got traded.  He’s the best defensive player on an awful defense.  Where was DYFUS for an intervention on that name selection?  Pack 1-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 SU.  Pats 4-1 of late, 9-3 ATS at home.  If it’s 7, you take the Pack.  But anything less, it’s an easy call for cry baby Brady and his tubby Unabomber coach.
Patriots -5
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NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

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NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL week 17 picks ATS

I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october.  2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen.  Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did.  And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy:  Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1.  Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters.  So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.  

The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs.  So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours.  Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts.  Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA.  Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home.  I think Oak +7 is a play

But I like the LA under 42 better.

My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house.  Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game.  In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract.  It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple.  But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can.  This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona.  Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable.  I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year.  Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road.  Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall.  Third time’s the charm.

Take the Skins -3

Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears.  Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1.  The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings.  I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense.  Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota.  John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out.  Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs.  Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi.    The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points.  Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.  

I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half.  I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.

In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane.  This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once.  The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center.  And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….

Lay -5 and grab the Colts.

I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week.  Why?  The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall.  But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22.  And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7.  No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either.  Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.

Take Bal over 40

In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help.  Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6.  They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS.  And why doth thou give a dookie about this game?  Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons.  And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason.  Yes, Seattle is healthier.  But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS.  I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.

Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points. 

The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think.  The Saints need this game to ensure a home game.  The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit.  Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall.  5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO.  Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under.  This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos.  But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…

Goes under 48.5

Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…

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