NFL Week 15 picks ATS

Well kids, I take my lumps when I deserve them.  And I take my bows when I deserve them.  Last week, I went 7-0, SEVEN AND ZERO!!!  Yep kids, TB under, Oak, KC under, Indy, Seattle, GB, and the Rams under ALL cashed. For the year, 54-39 for a whopping 58% for the year.  I did take the KC under on Thursday night which was busted with 7 seconds left in the game.  So we start 0-1 for the week and here we go.

Lock of the week is SF +4.5.  Yes, the numbers are insanely stacked against SF in past games. Seattle has been outgunned yard wise  5 out of their last6.  Niners crushed by Seattle last time they played but Niners outgained them by 127 yds.  Seattle is on a short week as well as 99% likely to make the playoffs so need to put the pedal to the metal.  Less motivation for the Seahawks and the number is right.  The line opened at 5 and now it’s 3.5 so you better snatch it up now before it gets below an advantageous spot.

SF +4.5

Next game is another where one team has the playoffs all but locked up but the other team has to fight to remain in the thick of it.  Dallas has won 5 straight, including an overtime thriller.  They’re on the road and maybe a little tired.  Dallas is going to win the division so don’t be surprised if they’re not gung ho.  Frank Reich already knows how to cover against the NFC east.  Colts 6-1 SU of late and 4-1 at home.  Again the line is at the right spot so it’s the time to grab…

Indy -2.5

Teaser time!  Remember, tease through 7 and 3.  The rest stop bathroom known as Kirk Cousins is home against Miami who just played their superbowl last week against the Pats.  Miami 2-9 ATS on the road and 2-3-1 ATS on the road.  Minnesota 17-7-1 at home ATS and 10-2 SU at home.  I’ve teased this from 7.5 down to 1.5 so it’s virtually a pick em.

Minnesota and Baltimore teased down to -1.5 each.

Last pick is another easy one, I hope. The mongrels from Philly head to LA and they’re trotting out Nick Foles. Philly hasn’t been scoring and now add that on to a pissed off Rams team that got diarrheaed on by the Bears. The Eagles aren’t scoring enough, 5/7 under of late. to bust this over so we’re going

Rams under 52.5

Bonus pick: 

Everyone and their slutty grandmother is pounding the Pittsburgh/Pats over.  It opened
at 49, now it’s 55.5.  Pats have been 5/6 under of late, 8/11 under on the road, and 4/6
when playing Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh has been 4/6 under of late.  Ben has cracked ribs to 
boot so I’m going to keep watching that number go up and then go 
Pittsburgh under 55.5 or more?
Advertisements

NFL picks ATS Week 9

First off, a shameless plug for my show on Twitch TV called, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber.  See how we do with our gambling picks as well as fantasy football recommendations.  We’ll be on next week at 6pm under the Be Terrific banner on Twitch as well as Facebook Live.

Unreal.  We’ve just turned out clocks back and as I typed out, “week 9”, I realize how time does indeed fly.  Remember how getting to your birthday, summer vacation, or losing your virginity seemed to take a lifetime?  Fuck, we’re now halfway through the NFL season.  It was only 2 months ago that my buddy and I were hopping around like idiots in Vegas where your boy went 7-1 opening weekend.  Last week, I righted the ship and went 5-3, bringing me to a robust 35-24 and more importantly to 59%.  Jesus Christ, that’s spectacular!  I hit the Colts, Skins, Pitt Over, Seattle, and the Packers as the lock of the week.  Lost the Bengals as they blew a 17 point  lead late after Fitzpatrick and his beekeeper beard returned to action and backdoored that game.  I called the Saints winning outright, wish I took them instead of the over.  The Saints over was ahead of pace at halftime but Minnesota couldn’t do dick in the second half, leaving me 4 points shy of the over.  And the Niners ALSO blew a 2 score lead in the 4th quarter against Arizona. As we know, the best laid plans…

Week NAWWWNE started off with a clunker for me as every sharp better jumped on Oakland +3 when Beathard was announced as questionable on Wednesday.  As the line went down to Oakland -1 when Beathard was ruled out, you can figure out who started to plan on spending that sweet, sweet, freeeee money.  And then a pesky little thing called, “the game” occurred.  That’s where Nick Mullen sliced and diced through that putrid Oakland defense like he was Peyton Manning in 2006.  Hell, Mullen didn’t throw his FIRST incompletion until late in the first quarter.  SF ends up blowing out the Raiders and you’ll be lucky to find someone this year to put cash on them this year, even if it’s against a bunch of bearded hipsters wearing skinny jeans with Lena Dunham as the quarterback.  The way the Raiders defense has been playing, she could do a 5 step drop back, tweet how white men are the worst, and find a “male feminist” open on a crossing route.

So 0-1 to start this week, let’s pick some winners!

Lock of the week:

Pitt 4-1, 6-3 ATS on road and 8-0-1 SU.  Baltimore got smoked in Carolina and hasn’t had their bye yet, they’re looking TIRED.   I love taking divisional teams as dogs as they know each other well and Pitt will be looking for revenge after the first matchup showed them to the loss column. The Steelers run D is morning boner solid, 5 total TDs to RBs this year
Pitt +3, now +2.5
Minnesota is back after losing to the Saints and now they get Detroit.  And if you’re the Lions, you’ve traded away a guy who caught 70% of his targets.  You’re playing a top 10 scoring defense and 6th against the pass rush.  Oh, the Vikings also have the 5th best red zone defense  I’d rather back Donald Trump at a Menudo concert than back the Lions  this week. Explain this line: If Detroit played this game at home, it would be Detroit +1?    Minn needs the game, is at home where they’re 16-7-1.  Adam Thielen doesn’t fumble, that’s a completely different game  Detroit giving up 5.5 ypc and 2nd most rushing yds in NFL, nahhhhhh
Take the Vikes and their stupid SKOL chant -5.5
My favorite game show as a kid was the Price is Right.  And boy, the price is right here.  Denver trades away it’s number 1 WR…TO THE TEAM THEY’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND? Houston is red hot and the Broncos have cracked 20 points ONCE this year.  Houston with 10 days off and Lamar Miller is running like he’s leaving Honduras behind.  2 100 yd games in back to back weeks sounds and now against the 28th ranked run defense a good enough reason for me.  Bonus reason: oh yeah, how about a run heavy team (Denver) going against the best run defense in the league (Texans). 
I have no idea why the line is a pick em but I got Houston in this week.  And if I waited a day, I could’ve had them +1.
Cleveland has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator.  At home against the white hot Chiefs, oh boy.  Cold hard fact: When a home dog is 8 ore more, the under is 21/23.  18, 23, 14, and 12.  Those are Cleveland’s last 4 games worth of points.  Yes, we know KC puts up points.  But will Cle put up their share, especially under new coaching?  I say no.
Quick and easy pick: Cleveland under 51.5
Tennessee has a top 10 defense and Dallas can’t score, except their fans score insanely high on the BMI and diabetic scores.  Seriously, how many skinny Dallas fans do you know?  That aren’t on drugs.  Or homeless.  Tennessee hasn’t allowed a RB over 80 yards and Zeke is the key to that offense.  Does Dak Prescott scare you?  As much as Ernest P Worrell did.  Dallas can win by a FG but that’s not the spread.
Take the Titans +5.  I can never pick them right but I think I figured them out for this week.
Bills stink and the Bears aren’t putting up points against the Bills defense. Low number, I know.  But this game has 20-6 written all over it.
Bills under 38.5
Games I like and may take, depending on the number.
Saints with an impressive win in Minn (I called it, you’re welcome) against the undefeated Rams.  Rams are 1-3-1 ATS and Saints are 5-0 ATS and SU.  10-1 SU at home.  Rams aren’t covering and I think the Saints eek it out in a shootout.  
Saints at home and getting 2?  Boy, I’m waiting to see if I can get to 3 but still like +2
Tampa goes into Carolina where they’re killing it SU. But against divisional opponents and the Panthers are -6 or more, they’re 0-5.  Fitzpatrick may be down but with that offense, they can backdoor it easily.  You see that commercial with JB Smoove?  It shows McCaffrey has some real acting chops.  He really convinced me like he understood what the hell JB was saying.  JB Smoove sounds like the black Swedish Chef.
Wait and see if it gets to 7 but TB +6.5 could be the play.
 It’s supposed to rain in Seattle, duh.  But Seattle is a heavy rushing offense.  Melvin Gordon is back for the Chargers so that gets them in the running spirit as well.  Chargers have gone under 6/9 on the road.  Seattle has gone under 5/6 and under 4/5 at home vs the Chargers.  
Seahawks under 47.5
Aaron Rodgers stinks on the road, he’s below 50% ATS.  Pats are back home and firing on all cylinders.  Sony Michel looks like he’s going to play.  And one of the worst names ever, Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, just got traded.  He’s the best defensive player on an awful defense.  Where was DYFUS for an intervention on that name selection?  Pack 1-4 ATS on the road and 0-5 SU.  Pats 4-1 of late, 9-3 ATS at home.  If it’s 7, you take the Pack.  But anything less, it’s an easy call for cry baby Brady and his tubby Unabomber coach.
Patriots -5

NFL Week 7 picks ATS

Last week, your hero got back on track!  5-2 for the week as I hit the Atl -3 (57 yarder, holy shit!), Niners over, Pitt +2, Den +7 and under 50.5.  Lost Giants under and Titans.  26-17 for the year, putting me at 60% for the season.  Last week, I reported 60% but I was off by a few points, 58%.  Remember, Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber is on Twitch TV and Facebook Live on Fridays at 5pm.  Looks us up there under Be Terrific TV and here’s a link from 10/19’s show with Gerard Haran!

 

And now, more FREEEEEEEE MONEY!

In my lock of the week, the Chargers and Titans go to London to play a game as well as marvel how the majority of women wear fake eyelashes.  Found that out when I was there 2 weeks ago.  Also, in their casino at Leicester, the dealers stay on soft 17 in blackjack.  BUT they don’t take their second card until all of the players have acted.   And the Brits at my tables didn’t know what the hell they were doing so be warned.  Back to the handicap.  Chargers stayed in Cleveland after they shit on that town just like life does every day.  But they’re still a west coast time playing at 9:30am EST.  Tennessee just got done not scoring against Baltimore.  And we know how these early games usually fair.  Raiders/Seattle this year, under.  Jags/Ravens last year, under.  Minnesota/Cleveland last year, under.  Tennessee has a top 10 defense and AVERAGES 17 fantasy points to QBs; only 2 QBs have went above 17 pts in 6 weeks.  And Phil Rivers had a light passing game against a solid Cle pass defense, Melvin Gordon gouged them for 3 ground TDs.  Speaking of Melvin Gordon, he’s the third of his family with the name Melvin.  C’mon, Melvin isn’t a great name to hang on your son for future generations.  Don’t give me that “family name” argument.  How about a LITTLE originality for the kid?  Oh, and as of Saturday night, Gordon is now downgraded to questionable and a game time decision.  Tennessee is weaker against the run so that’s a huge blow if he sits and he’ll be hampered if he does give it a go.  Some numbers?  Sure!  Titans have gone under 4/5, they can’t run nor pass with a banged up Mariota.  And Henry has been god awful for them on the ground.  Where are the points coming from?  Not from 2 jet lagged teams and especially ones with key guys on offense that are out/banged up.

Lock of the week, Tenn under 45.5 

Tampa Bay fired head coach turned/defensive coordinator/turned employed buffoon.  Watching him coach Atlanta was like watching Lena Dunham try and throw a football.  Horrendously awkward and zero respect given.  Tampa also just lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta and their “defense.”  Jesus, more people have been touched against a blind kid in Red Rover than Atlanta’s defense has.  Jameis “1 star Uber passenger rating” Winston was impressive carving up the Falcons last week.  Tampa leads the NFL in YPP at 7.2 Cle does have a good pass defense but as we saw last week, they’re awful on the ground.  Peyton Barber should have a good game as well.  Cleveland has given up 38 and 42 points in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  As for Tampa defense, it stinks worse than Chinatown in the summertime.  Tampa hasn’t given up less than 20 points SINCE LAST YEAR.  Hell, they’ve only given up <30 ONCE this year.  Cleveland has gone over 12/17 on the road.  Tampa has gone over 5/5 and oh yeah, Tampa 4-2 ATS at home.  

Take the Bucs 3-5 and I got the over 50 but now it’s 52. But don’t take an Uber pool with Jameis Winston.

The Saints are off the bye and they head down to Baltimore where it’s so bad that even the tourists won’t dare do The Wire walking tour.  Saints are fantastic off the bye at home, 2-0.  But on the road after a bye, 0-2.  Saints also 2-4 SU on the road.  Ravens have top defense, 4.2 YPP, and the #3 run defense.  Oh yeah, it’s supposed to be quite windy tomorrow, winds around 15mph.  Saints are 1-6-1 ATS vs Bal.  Baltimore both 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Saints.  Let’s talk the total which is now 49.  Saints are obviously are great home and dome team. But playing in Baltimore, the under went 4/6.  And Baltimore of late, 4/5 under.  I can’t tee it up anymore so…

Take Baltimore -3 and under 49.  I locked in the other day at Bal -2.5 and under 50 so bully for me.

Last one of the day.  I hit the Niners over by early 3rd quarter on monday night.  I ask you, what’s better than that, hitting your over just after the halfway point?  I’ll allow going out to a bar and having the hottest girl come up to you, buy you a drink, and then asking to go back to your place. The Niners defense is worse than a prolapsed anus.  Ever see one of those in a porn?  Yeah, that causes you to go softer than seeing your mom naked.  Unless your Pam Anderson’s kid, then getting tumescent is a daily routine and no one came blame you.  Some stats: SF over 5/5 and 5/6 over at home.  Rams over 8/12 of late and 8/11 on the road.  Rams secondary is banged up and on the road again.  They’re putting up pts for sure and their secondary isn’t as good without Talib.  No Cooper Kupp for the Rams though however they’ll slice through the Niners defense which has allowed as many points as morning after diarrhea attacks I have in Vegas after all day drinking sessions.  The Niners D hasn’t given up <20 points since LAST DECEMBER.  52 may be a lot but the Rams are good for at LEAST 31 against this poop squad.

Niners over 52

NFL Picks Week 4 ATS

6-3 last week!  2 out of 3 weeks, I’ve won you money.  And not one of you sent me a cut or a thank you note.  Didn’t your mothers teach you better manners?  I didn’t take Thursday night’s game as I debated about Minnesota (push) and the under (definite miss.  I think we all know the Rams over will be the lock of the week for the season.)  

Breakdown: I took Indy and the under, Jets under, Cincy over, Miami, and the Saints.  The Giants under missed with exactly 1 second left on the clock and of course, that was the big bet of the week.  Lost the TB under on Monday night, lost the Niners when Jimmy G snapped that ACL but will still be snapping that porn star puss.  15-8 on the year, why the fuck don’t I have a gambling show yet??!?!?!  

The Oakland Raiders are 0-3, just like most of their fans’ parole hearings.  Are they that bad or the victims of bad luck?  They’ve blown 3 leads at halftime and now they get Baker Mayfield on the road in his first start?  In the black hole?  Remember when betting, you’re playing the number, which is Oak -2.5 here.  Home field is 3 points so what Vegas is trying to say is Cleveland is .5 better than Oakland on a neutral site?  With a QB who has ONE HALF under his belt.  Not buying it.  And Oakland is due for a win, especially at home.  Oh yeah, rookie QBs making their first start on the road?  ZERO out of 10.

Take the Raiders -2.5.  I may even take the under 45 as Oak under 9/10, 5/5 at home, and 4/5 vs Cleveland.

You know what Carson Wentz didn’t do last week?  Throw for a shitload of yards and TDs, just like I said he wouldn’t.  And now they face a rather stingy Tennessee defense.  And Tennessee’s Mariota looks like he got hit by that volcano eruption in his native Hawaii.  Tennessee is also a heavy run offense.  How do the Eagles fare against the run?  #2, just like me in the bathroom 5 minutes ago?  Titans have scored totals of 17, 20, and 9 pts this year.  Eagles have scored 20, 21, and 18 this year.  This game screams 17-13 so let’s be wise and take 

Tennessee under 41.5, I bought the .5

Atlanta defense is like the testimony of the second Cavanaugh accuser, possibly full of holes and supposedly gang banged up.  Missing both starting safeties is not a way to start against Andy Dalton, who has been slinging it all over the place.  Much like a recently divorced woman at an Appelebee’s on a Friday night. 1/2 off appetizers will get her pants fully off in that bathroom!  Falcons just played nearly 5 quarters against the Saints and that defense is as gassed like a fat kid doing suicides.  Not shooting up a school and then killing himself, I’m talking about running back and forth for an hour straight followed up by puking. You know,  the good ol days where coaches would call you a faggot for missing the cutoff man.  Cincy lists AJ Green as probable so that’s huge.  The only thing that scares is the line opened +5.5 and now it’s down to 3.5.

Take the Bengals while you can get the 3.5, it’s still a good number.

Sigh, I said I don’t do normally do this…I know, I sound like a woman during a one night stand.  But I’m going to make a case for the NY Giants and break my own rule of betting them.  Saints played nearly 5 quarters last week.  And that defense stinks worse than my house after a night of my wife’s Buffalo wing dip (to die for) and beers.  Saints defense AVERAGES 33 points again.  And now they’re on the road but more importantly, outside of a dome.  The Giants beat them the last time they came to Giants stadium and now they’re catching 3.5?  Saints are 1-5 SU in NY and the under has hit 5/7 when they’ve played?  Vernon and Apple are out again on defense.  Then again, they were out last week against Houston and they won.  

Let’s cross those fingers and toes and take the Giants +3.5

I kinda like but probably won’t bet: GB (home against a Bills team who shot their load last week), Detroit +3, Jets +7.5 (3rd road game in a row kind of scares me about the Jets but the number is right), Chargers -10.5 (Large number, may buy it down to 9.5, depends how I do with the 1pm games.)

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Quite shocked this number is moving this way and a bit annoyed I locked in too earlier.  But the Colts -1.5 (now a pick ’em or even +1) is a steal.  Hopkins went through limited practice with a couple of injuries, limited as questionable, but he’ll go.  And Houston’s secondary is trash.  Houston 2-7-2 playing Indy, 2-5-1 in Indy.  Colts could’ve won in weeks 1 and 3 EASILY.  They’re 2-1 ATS and could be 2-1-1 if they didn’t turn it over late week 1.  

I have the Colts at -1.5 but you can get them at a Pick or even +1, get that NOW if you can.

 

 

 

 

 

NFL week 17 picks ATS

I knew I jinxed myself when I said I haven’t had a losing weekend since late october.  2-5 was not the way to spend Christmas but shit, these things happen.  Hope you enjoyed Star Wars as much as I did.  And I recently did see 2 new films that you may enjoy:  Film reviews: 3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Darkest Hour And now we go into the last week of the year which is just as confusing as week 1.  Playoffs are mostly set with seedings up in the air which means some teams are half assing it or completely resting their starters.  So I’m going to do more totals or games where there is some meaning.  

The Raiders head to LA for a quasi meaningless game as the Chargers need help to make the playoffs.  So for all you LA residents, get ready for Raiders fans (cholos) to have cockfights in that soccer stadium parking lot of yours.  Let’s get ready for some cold, hard facts.  Oak has hit the under in 5/5, 8/11 on the road (including last week in Philly, one of the 2 I got right), 4/6 vs LA, 13/17 in LA.  Phil Rivers has been focusing more on his 29 kids than scoring points as his team his hit the under in 5/5 and 5/7 at home.  I think Oak +7 is a play

But I like the LA under 42 better.

My NY Giants just have a new GM who already just started cleaning house.  Got rid of the head of personnel evaluation and cut OL Bobby Ross for refusing to practice and play in Sunday’s game.  In come the Redskins off a win and Kirk Cousins playing for a contract.  It’s gonna be cold in Giants Stadium (sorry you Jets fans squatters, it will always be Giants stadium) and let’s see who’s out for the Giants: Evan Engram, Sterling Sheppard, Landon Collins, and Eli Apple.  But I would consider it a positive for the other team if Apple was in because his mouthy mother could cover better than her pansy ass kid can.  This team has ZERO offense which is exactly how many points they scored last week in Arizona.  Oh yeah, JPP and his 7.5 fingers is also questionable.  I’m 0-2 betting against the Giants this year as KC and Den both decided to take a steamy diarrhea dump on themselves in the ONLY 2 Giants wins all year.  Skins are 4-2 ATS or late and 12-6 on the road.  Giants are 2-5 ATS at home and 3-6 overall.  Third time’s the charm.

Take the Skins -3

Minnesota is about to lock up a first round bye if they can take down the Bears.  Shouldn’t be a problem as the Vikings are 9-1 of late, 7-1 at home, and 4-1.  The ONLY thing I’m worried about is the funky number of 11.5 for the Vikings.  I think the Vikings come out flying and shut down the anemic Bears offense.  Bears are 2-4-1 ATS of late, 5-10 on the road, and 1-4 @ Minnesota.  John Fox will be gone before the post game buffet is laid out.  Get ready to say these words in the same sentence: Case Keenum and playoffs.  Here are a couple of fun stats: Vikes are 6-0 for the under as home favorites of 10 points or more. Vikings are under 4/6 of late, 4/5 @ home, and 4/6 home vs Chi.    The Bears are 5-1 for the under as an underdog of 10+ points.  Bears are 4/5 of late with the under, 5/8 playing the Vikings, and 4/6 in Minnesota.  

I really like the Vikings under 38 and the Vikings first half.  I kind of like the Vikings -12 but prefer the other 2 plays.

In one of the top, “who gives a shit” games of the week, the Colts finish the year against the Texans who still look like they’re playing in that hurricane.  This is going to be Chuck Pagano’s last game so the Colts may resemble an NFL team for once.  The Texans have TJ Yates as quarterback this week and I’ll be honest when I say I’d rather have TJ Hooker behind center.  And no DeAndre Hopkins this week either so I’ll play on the sentimentality factor and….

Lay -5 and grab the Colts.

I think the Bengals and Ravens go higher than 40 points this week.  Why?  The trends say under as Cincy has hit the under in Bal 7/10 and 12/18 overall.  But Baltimore hasn’t put up less than 20 points since 10/22.  And Cincy has put up at least 20 in 5/7.  No Vontez Burfect for Cincy either.  Bal needs the game and will want to stay motivated.

Take Bal over 40

In another, “who gives a shit game”, the Cardinals fly (pun intended) to Seattle who actually can make the playoffs with some help.  Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS of late but they suck on the road, 1-6.  They also have trouble with Seattle, 2-4-1 ATS.  And why doth thou give a dookie about this game?  Because Bruce Arians is supposedly retiring due to health reasons.  And you’re getting 9 points with a team who’s actually trying for no apparent reason.  Yes, Seattle is healthier.  But they haven’t exactly been lighting it up of late, 3-5-1 and 1-4 at home ATS.  I’m tired so no more jokes or analysis.

Take the Redbirds and the 9 free points. 

The lock of the week is the Saints game but not for the reason you may think.  The Saints need this game to ensure a home game.  The Bucs have played well of late but let’s tip my hand a little bit.  Bucs have went under in 5/5 at home and 6/9 overall.  5/6 vs NO and 8/9 at home vs NO.  Saints are 4/5 on the road with the under.  This game could easily be a Saints blowout or a squeaker and I just don’t give 2 flying purple dildos.  But I will guaran-damn-tee that this game…

Goes under 48.5

Kind of debating about: Cincy +9.5, Jets +15, and Niners -3…

Week 12 NFL picks

Sorry for no column last weekend, I had an insanely packed Saturday with the Comics Watching Comics taping on Saturday while family came up for a belated birfday celebration on Sunday.  But if you follow me and my cookie eating machine (She ate a CWC cookie last week), you’ll see that I killed it!  I hit Tenn over on Thursday night to start off the week with an easy win as that was clinched in the 3rd quarter.  I hit Philly, Baltimore, Minnesota and the under, and the Saints over.  I lost KC (fucking Giants dicked me again when getting double digits), SD under (Peterman throwing FIVE picks didn’t help), and the Houston under.  I also hit the Seattle over on monday night, giving me a SOLID 7-3 record last week.  I took SD under on Thanksgiving and nailed that one with ease so we’re starting off the week 1-0.  Hot hand in the dice game, baby doll!  Talk about 6 hours straight!  Clickety, clickety, clack!   Now name that reference.

I missed definitely 1, even 2 bets last week.  I should’ve went with the Pats and the under like my gut said to because the Pats stayed in Denver to maintain the high elevation conditions to prep for Mexico City.  And by prepping for conditions, I mean put your money in your shoes and carrying a burner cell phone.  I knew the Raiders weren’t doing that and boy, did it show.  But I like to bet trends and here are a few for you:  The Pats are 5/7 covering the overs at home.  The Pats are 4/6 covering the overs when playing Miami.  And Miami is perfect in the over department in their last 5.  Matt Moore will be chasing points like Kevin Spacey chasing nerd boys in a Gamestop.  48 is an easy number for both teams to hit.

Take the Pats over 48

Pittsburgh has 10 days to prepare for the DOA Green Bay Packers.  This game SHOULD be out of hand early and this number is so low that Pitt may be able to cover it themselves.   For the last month and change, the Packers D has given up 20+ points in all but one game.  The only question is can GB score enough points as in that same timeframe as they’ve put up 20+ points…one time.  They’ve also been shut out once in that span (Lock of the week last week was Baltimore folks but then again, if you follow me on FB, you know that).  GB has hit the over on the road 7/8.  Pitt though, has hit the under 8/10.  GB women are 0/10 when it comes to hitting the under of 215 lbs.  I just think 43 is too low and GB will be chasing points late.  Can you see Pitt winning this 35-10?  I can.  And if so, that’s a winner. 

Take GB over 43

Jacksonville got one of the luckiest covers last week against the Browns when they stripped the ball from Kizer late and ran it in for a DTD.  The last time Cleveland had their hearts ripped out of them like this was the previous Sunday.  And the Sunday before that.  And the Sunday before that.  Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS and 7-1 on the road.  Now they fly to sunny Arizona where the only thing the Cardinals fans have to look forward to is ASU sorority girls on a scavenger hunt during pledge season.  AZ is 2-7-1 out of their last 10 and 1-3-1 at home.  What’s Jacksonville’s biggest weakness?  Run D.  And who is the biggest “threat” on AZ?  Old ass Adrian Peterson who aside from one stellar week has done less than SNL writers writing something else besides a Trump joke.  Acquiring Marcel Darius was the best thing for Jax as the yds per carry for opposing RBs has drastically dropped since Buffalo gave him away like a cuckholded husband gives away his wife.  And remember, BLAINE GABBERT IS THE QUARTERBACK.  No way that top tiered Jax pass D lets up anything in the air.  Especially from a guy named Blaine.

You’ll thank me when you take the Jags -5

The battle of bad accents, bad fashion, and bad driving (Ohio) is this weekend and the winner is truly the loser because it’s Ohio.  Cleveland ALMOST covered for a bunch of you but then went full Cleveland Steamer when they fumbled and Jax returns that fumble for a TD.  But Cincy has been a covering machine of late: 16 points over margin over their last 6 games as well as 6-0 ATS.  Cincy 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland.  Browns are 1-8 ATS and 0-4-1 on the road.  I know 7.5 is a tricky number but this game can easily be 20-10.

The Bengals continue to make the Browns scratching their heads and counting down until Josh Gordon returns, take Cincy -7.5

After watching Seattle’s hopes get crushed by a late FG attempt falling short on monday night, I think they’re done.  Their defense looks more trampled than Tera Patrick’s pussy. A short work week, ZERO running game, and now they’re on the road in SF.  The Niners are fresh off a bye and have a little pep in their step after destroying the Giants 2 weeks ago.  The Seahawks beat the Niners with a late FG to win 12-9 in SEATTLE.  What makes me think they’re gonna do it on the road?  Nothing.  “DEAD MAN WALKING!”

Take the NAWWWNERS +6.5

 

NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.