Tag: los ángeles chargers

NFL Week 14 ATS picks 12/12/21

Fucking finally, a profitable week last week. 9-3 brings me up to 69-68-1 for the year. And those 3 losses were sunk by 1 play each. Sadly enough, my Pitt and under teaser on Thursday ate a cold pile of dogshit so we’re starting off 0-1. Let’s make it 2 weeks straight and pay for some Christmas presents!

Dallas is giving 14 yds to receivers and passing game gives up 416 yds a game, most in the NFL. Dak is hurt and McCarthy broke one of the cardinal rules, he guaranteed victory against Redskins. Redskins are at home and I’m catching more than a FG? Yahtzee. Dallas is 6-2 SU in Washington, 12-4 ATS of late. However, Washington is 4-1 ATS and SU of late and I think Washington covers with ease when you add 6 more points…

Redskins +10.5 teaser along with Titans -2.5

Titans off the bye and facing the Jags who sport a tied for worst -1.3 turnover ratio. They’re getting Julio Jones back and after a few losses are going to look to turn things around. This is going to be a real airport bathroom stinkfest of a game but you don’t have to watch it, just bet it.

Atlanta fucked me on 2 bets last week when Russel Gage couldn’t hold onto the ball with 2 seconds left against the Bucs. Am I going to learn my lesson this week and not bet the Falcons like someone with common sense? Nope, right back to the well. Carolina fired its OC in the middle of their bye so they don’t get the full 2 weeks to prepare. ATL is 4-1 ATS in road games and does Cam Newton scare anyone anymore? Only his fashion sense is scary fantastic, me-ow! I wish I could pull off a peacock feather in a derby…not really. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t done much in McCaffrey’s absence so don’t hold your breath for him or DJ Moore. Falcons 9-3 ATS and SU against Carolina. Carolina 2-7 ATS and SU of late, 1-4 ATS at home. This may be a low scorer but I think we got the better of the number as it’s currently 2.5

Falcons +3

Texans have been shutout almost as much (2) as dudes who wear socks and flip flops with a backwards hat and oakleys to a Vegas pool party. They’re putting up an average 13.5 points a game and call me a sucker because I like Seattle but don’t call me daughter. Zing! Russel Wilson looked good against the Niners and now he faces a banal Houston defense that’s 30th in pass blocking. Not saying Seattle has the Legion of Boom anymore, more like the Legion of Blah, and no more Jamal Adams this season. Seattle D has allowed 16.7 in their last 5 and you get Davis Mills at QB? I’d rather have General Mills and their many brands of delicious cereal. Houston is 2-5 ATS of late, 1-10 SU. I’m starting Russ in fantasy and maybe Rashad Penny so let’s enjoy Seattle knocking their What a Burgers out of their hand and then eating them. Might as tease this down to avoid any shivers up the butthole and prevent the backdoor cover. Who are we teasing this with?

Why of course the team that Aaron Rodgers beats more than than Shailene Woodley’s hippy beef curtains…the Chicago Bears. Bears are 1-6 of late, ATS and SU. But more importantly, 0-5 SU and ATS against GB. Bears are also 0-5 SU in GB while GB continues to be the best ATS team in the land: 10-1 ATS of late, 5-0 ATS at home. This is a no brainer, getting the Packers down to 5.5

Packers -5.5 teaser with Sea -1.5

I want you to tell me why any of these teams are going to lose: Titans, Seahawks, Chargers, Broncos, and the Packers. All of those teams playing bottom 5 teams and 4 of them are at home.

5 way ML parlay: Tenn, Sea, LAC, Den, GB

Let’s really capitalize and take another teaser, reasons given above. As for the Lions, did you know they’re 5-1 ATS of late? Because they’re getting a TD or more each time! And the Lions won outright for the first time this year and of course, on the last play, beating my Vikings -1 teaser. Broncos off a rough loss to Chiefs and now they’re home after the Lions are fat and happy with their win out of the way. Broncos are 3-6 ATS of late and SU but I’ll be SHOCKED if they shit on their playoff hopes losing the Det. And let’s make it easier for those lads and need them to win by a FG.

Seattle -1.5/Den -2 teaser

I’ve made a great amount of money taking the points when the Bucs are on the road. And now that they’re home; time to bet on that while they’re in front of their backyard wrestling fans. Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills which is going to be a huge problem for his backup trying to stay on top of Mike Evans. They’re 8-0 SU at home, 6-0 ATS home against Buffalo, 4-2 ATS of late. Bills are 8-3 ATS on the road. Yes, Bills have been under more so late than not, 4/6, as the Bucs are 5/7 under of late. Bills can’t run the ball so they’re going to let er rip it against TB’s weak secondary. We saw the Bills run defense get gashed so enter Leonard Fournette and his 5 TDs in 2 games. Brady is 21-12-1 ATS against the Bills and after Monday’s embarrassment and short week, I see I got on the right number at its best…

Tampa -3

Also, another teaser. Bucs over 47.5 and Titans -2.5

Mike Glennon did exactly what I thought he would do against the Dolphins, nothing. Now we get him against the Chargers who are notorious under at home, 6/9, and 4/5 under against the NFC. Giants have been under 6/6 of late and you can better believe they’re hoping they can run the ball against the NFL worst rush defense. And if they don’t, Mike Glennon is going to look like Corky from Life Goes On trying to throw that football. I especially the Giants starting off slow and since the Chargers are without Keenan Allen, maybe the Chargers do too. Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler should have monster games today but hopefully, in the second half.

Giants 1h under 22.5

Advertisement
by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

by Categories: UncategorizedTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL picks ATS week 3

Kyler Murray is the highest scoring fantasy qb and if you think Jax defense is stopping him and his cadre of weapons, go ahead and fill in any axiom or cliche you want to here. Zona 4-2 SU of late, but 3-8 ATS. Jags are 1-5 ATS in last 6, 0-10 SU of late and 0-8 SU at home. Jags also 1-4 ATS as a dog. The 7 or 7.5 may scare you away and I get why but man, Jags have shown less fight than a bunch of larpers at a UFC gym. Wouldn’t shock anyone if Urban Meyer quit midseason and took the USC job. I cheated and teased this baby to 1.5 so I could take advantage of another number…

I grabbed this line when it was TB GETTING 1.5. I don’t know who wins (probably Bucs) but I don’t care. Neither team is losing by more than a TD with those defenses so ripe for a backdoor plucking. You can tease the Rams to +7.5 now and I’d feel just as confident about that pick as this one. Bucs 4-1 ATS of late, 10-0 SU as well. Rams 4-1 SU of late but again, no one is losing by more than a TD

Arizona -1.5 and TB +7.5

Carolina already covered so let’s make this reallllly easily. The Lions were giving the Packers a bit of fits last week late but I see the Ravens just running the ball down their throats. Bad 8-2 ATS in last 10, 7-2 SU, 4-1 ATS and SU against Det. Ravens off an emotionally high game against the Chiefs, Lions off a MNF loss. Lions are 0-6 of late, 0-5 SU at home. Let’s make this game a virtual pick em as Lamar and company run through the Lions D like bad jokes run through Amy Schumer’s mouth. Already hit Car so halfway home already.

Carolina -1.5 and Bal -1.5

One of my 3 losses last week, the Chiefs fumbled away late with a chance to win the game w FG and hit that ML bet for me. That Chiefs defense is scary awful now, like watching Rosie O Donnell’s taint getting waxed. We all know the Chiefs can’t cover a spread but they sure can win outright, especially after a loss. Chargers 5-1 ATS, 5-1 SU, 5-10 ATS in KC, 2-12 SU in KC. KC 1-6 ATS and 13-3 SU of late, 16-2 at home. So what we’re doing this weekend is some good ol middling trickery: I’m teasing the Bills down to -.5 so a virtual pick em and you’ll see what I did with another teaser…

Buffalo depantsed Miami like it was 7th grade gym glass and then a dodgeball right in its face. Now, we know they’re not going to do that to the WFT but I’m damn sure the Bills are going to win. Wash is 1-4 ATS in last 5, 2-4 SU in last 6, 1-7 ATS and SU against Buffalo. That Wash defense got gashed by the Giants, the GIANTS for chrissakes. Too bad the Giants got burned on that offsides call (watch the replay, he timed that snap perfectly) Bills are 10-3 ATS of late, 9-2 SU, 7-1 SU at home. Also, 6-0 vs NFC opponents. Bills are going to win but when I locked in, it was 8.5. Now it’s 7 and the wise players milked that value and I should’ve done the same as Wash is covering that TD plus spread. But I made this the other half of my teaser and knocked the Bills down to 2.5

Bills -2.5 and Chiefs -.5

STOP! Teaser time! Cincy under 6/9 and under vs pitt 4/6. Pitt under 5/7 in September. Ben is banged up but also, so is Watt and Naismith who are both sitting due to injuries. These are always tight games despite them missing 2 key guys on defense. The Pitt offense hasn’t wowed anyone in awhile and with Ben throwing like Anthony Fauci’s first pitch, I don’t have faith in a lot of scoring. But I like this a lot more up to 49.5 so here’s the first leg of a teaser…

And now, here’s the opposite of a low scoring game, HIGH scoring. And both the Bucs and Rams defenses have more scoring than a Pai Gow table. Rams have scored this seasons 27 and 34, Bucs 48 and 31. Neither defense inspires confidence: TB has gone over 5/7 of late, 5/6 vs NFC and 4/5 vs NFC west. Rams 4/5 over of late, 4/5 vs TB and 5/6 over in September. 55.5 is an insane number to bet on so let’s take those 6 points from the other teaser and cross our fingers it is a 27-24 or better game.

Pitt under 49.5 and Bucs over 49.5

Already hit Carolina on Thursday night and explained above why the other 2 are top plays.

3 way ml parlay Car, Chiefs, Bills,

3 way ml parlay Az, Ravens, Broncos,

Already explained above why I love the Ravens in a teaser so much that I did another one and decided to middle the shit out of the Chiefs game. As also mentioned before, the Chiefs win outright but 1-6 ATS of late but 13-3 SU, 16-2 SU at home. Their defense is worse than any Wes Anderson film but at least you’ll enjoy watching football vs a Wes Anderson film. So by middling with 2 teasers, that puts me at the Chargers +13. Chargers should’ve won the game against Dallas last week and I think they play their division rival tight. I’d be shocked, shocked, SHOCKED if they lost by more than 2 TDs

Ravens -1.5 and Chargers +13

I trust Atlanta like I would trust random women in Vegas who says, “it’s ok if you don’t wear a condom.” Yeah, right. ATL giving up 40 ppg in this young season. ATL 2-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road of late. ATL 1-6 in September and the Giants OWN them. Giants 4-0-1 ATS against the NFC south and oh yeah, today is Eli’s number being retired. If not now, when? The Giants HAVE to win this or kiss the season goodbye. Hey Daniel Jones…on your left.

Giants -3

This one JUMPED out at me from the get go. I had the Minn over last week teased and hit by HALFTIME last week and wow, they can’t kick a meaningful FG with the game on the line AT ALL. But they’re the best 0-2 team out there and man, this is the week for a win. That Seattle defense is porous; just ask Derrick Henry last week as he gang banged them like TT Boy during a casting couch session last week. This game has shootout written all over it and that plays perfectly to this teaser. : Seattle is 1-6 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS vs NFC. I don’t care that the Seahawks have done well ATS against the Vikings of late, 1-5. But Sea stinks on the road and let’s take 6 points and make this better than a TD game. And backing up my over claim? Minn over is 5/5 of late, 8/9 at home. Minn 5-1 ATS in week 3. Bring that total down and Vikes EASILY cover, if not win outright.

Vikings +8 and over 49.5

Goddamn, I hate ever having to root for them but I like Philly this week in Dallas. Dallas 1-5 ATS against NFC east teams but 4-1 ATS against Philly. The key is the Eagles getting the 3.5, I think this is a FG better and who would be shocked if Philly went in there and won? McCarthy almost gagged up last week’s game against the Chargers, he fucked up against Bucs when he left too much time on the clock and Brady came right down the field on them. The historical numbers don’t back up this play but I’m calling it a hunch and again, the number is right.

Eagles +3.5

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

NFL Week 9 ATS bets

I’m retiring that Scrooge McDuck bank vault dive because every time I use it, I get smoked. 2-5 last week, bringing me down to 27-22 and 55% for the year. That’s the lowest I’ve been in 3 seasons, yeeeesh. But oh golly, I feel hot today (Caddyshack quote for you those who know the film better than you know your spouses) So the photo this week is a great way to announce Gutting the Sacred Cow LIVE podcast tickets are now on sale! https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

LOVE Arizona now -5.5. I locked in yesterday at 4pm and the line jumped 2 FULL POINTS. Talk about closing line value. You mean to tell me Tua who just had a 3 yd TD pass is just a 5.5 point dog? The special teams, defense, and 1 yd TD run was the rest of the offense for the Dolphins. You have to throw out all recent stats with Miami (5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 SU, 9-3 SU vs AZ) as they’re a completely new team with Tua. Bona of late 5-2 ATS

Arizona -3.5 but I still like it for -5.5, both need win by more than a FG

One of the few winners I had last week was the Steelers getting 10.5 in Baltimore as part of a teaser. We saw the Jackson had a hard time throwing it because the Steelers took them out of the running game. And of course, the Ravens can run over everyone. I also know that when Leonard plays for the Colts, they’re something like 5-1 ATS. This is strictly a bounce back game for the Ravens as they’re 12-5-1 of last 18 and 17-3 SU of 20. Bal 9-0 SU on the road. Colts are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU and playing well. But guess what? Sharps pounded Indy so now it’s Bal +1.5 and I said let’s make that even safer…

Teased Baltimore +7.5

Who to tease with? Well, I should’ve bought out of the Raiders bet against Cle. Raiders are playing the Charges who have blown THREE 17 point leads this year. In LA but who gives a shit? Vegas is 6-3 ATS of late and 5-1 ATS on the road. Chargers are 4-2 of late but 1-5 SU of late and 1-4 SU at home. But again, let’s give us some wiggle room…

Raiders +7.5 second leg of the Bal teaser

Sam Darnold is doubtful but honestly, would it matter? Jets are 1-7 ATS of late, 0-8 SU, 1-4 SU at home, 1-5 SU home vs NE. And Joe Flacco is playing? Wow. I know know the Pats have been awful of late, 3-6 ATS and 1-5 of late. But man, you think Bellichick is losing to the Jets? On Monday night? After 3 straight losses? I don’t. But again’ let’s be safe and..

Tease the Pats to -1.5 and Sea over 48.5 as the second leg of the teaser.

Buffalo Over in 6/8, 4/5 against AFC east. Bills over 6/8, 9/9 vs Seattle, and 6/6 over vs NFC West. Seattle over 6/8 and 4/5 vs AFC.

Russ is something like 14-7 ATS on the east coast for 1pm games. Buffalo defense has been awful of late. All but 2 of their games (1 against the Jets) they’ve given up 20 points or more. And they gave up 21 to a shitty Pats team in the rain last weekend. Seattle’s high octane offense can easily gash this trash bag defense. Seattle 5-2 of late, 6-1 SU. Sea 10-3 SU on the road and Sea 5-0 ATS in November. Bills 1-4 ATS of late, 2-4 ATS at home. Laying a FG on the road with Russ and no real RB= a lot of chunk plays for big yards. BTW, Russ is -150 to win MVP this year. Who would’ve thought a guy who has a virgin until he met Ciara was capable of this (pun intended) explosion. Looks like him and AC Green have a lot to talk about…

Seattle -3

Drew Lock was impressive last week and now he gets to play in a dome against the worst pass defenses? Den 5-2 ATS, 7-3 SU against ATL, more importantly 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 SU in ATL. No Calvin Ridley either for the Falcons. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in November. ATL 2-4 ATS and 2-6 SU, 1-14 vs AFC. This makes a quick and easy 1st leg of a teaser.

Denver +10.5 and teasing AZ to +.5

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Week 5 NFL against the spread picks

Don’t listen to that hack, Vegas Dave!

Hello all you cool cats and kittens. 3-3 last week as I won the Gb/KC teaser, Bills, and Mia/over teaser. Lost the Jags, Lions 1h, and TB/under teaser. which brings me to an overall record of 14-7, 67% for the year. So first week that wasn’t profitable but goddamnit, we’re going to hopefully fix it this week.

First up, Washington Redskins. You might be saying, “Why in tarnation are you giving 2 shits about this game? And I’ll say, “Why are you talking like Yosemite Sam?” Haskins is benched and they’re giving Kyle Allen a shot. This is the THIRD cross country trip for the Rams. Chase Young is back and the Skins play tight defense and have a decent pass rush. You saw the Giants disrupt the Rams last week on offense and the Skins have a better front 7 than the Giants. There aren’t many stats to back up my argument because all recent numbers are with Haskins as QB. Pros bet numbers and +7 is a good spot to grab a home dog. As I said, Rams have logged more miles than Bill Clinton and Donald Trump did to Epstein’s private island. And to boot, the Rams have the Niners next week so this could be a classic trap game.

Take the Skins +7

STOP! Teaser Time! Pittsburgh fresh off a Covid bye and now gets an Eagles team who blew their load with that win in SF. Philly stinks, we all know it. And the Steelers d is solid. They’re going to make Wentz look sillier than an Eagles fan trying to take the SATs. under 5/7 in October. Pittsburgh under 8/11 and 4/5 under vs Philly. One more, 10/13 under vs NFC East. Second half of the teaser. Michael Thomas is now questionable but NO still has 2 CBs that are injured. Justin Herbert gunslinger his way to almost beat the Bucs but Anthony Lynn gives people as much hope as a public defender. Saints looked great in Detroit after being down 14-0 early but made the Lions go from Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 3. Not much data backing me up except for a few key numbers. Saints are 2-5 ATS at home of late. Now, that’s including without fans this year so far. Also, 1-4 at home against the Chargers but those are all Phillip Rivers numbers. We’re playing the numbers and the Chargers are getting over 2 TDs? That Saints d is ripe to get backdoor so let’s take advantage of that key number

Pitt under 50.5 and Chargers +14.5

Browns just blew up the Cowboys defense. That’s not happening to the Colts D who is top in the NFL. Darius Leonard is out for the Colts but that’s still going to keep the Browns offense curtailed. Rivers has become a game manager and so has Mayfield. No Chubb but Kareem Hunt has stepped in nicely. Browns/Indy under have hit 5/7 and in week 5, 4/5 have gone under.

Browns under 47.5

Seattle is just lighting up scoreboards and finding ways to win. Especially Russell Wilson. I’m not crazy about betting on Kirk Cousins as he’s 12-25 ATS after 4pm EST. Minn 1-5 in Seattle, 1-4 SU against NFC west. Zimmer is 0-2 ATS and SU in Seattle. Now, Minnesota D is also putrid but Seattle secondary has a harder time covering receivers than Pete Davidson does covering his teeth with his lips. Jesus, good thing he has a huge honker because that horse face is tough to look at. Now, Seattle is covering games more than you think. 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 11-4 SU at home. 6-2-1 ATS in week 5 and 5-1 ATS on sundays. You can easily tease this both ways, Seattle laying 1 or Minnesota getting 13. But that Minnesota defense has been BAD of late. Is Seattle going to win at home? Yes. Good, don’t be a hero, just win money. Second leg of the teaser…

Browns 0-5 SU home against Indy but 6-1 SU at home. Browns getting a key number with the teaser. Think they keep it close, under a TD. Add in more of the reasons I cited above for the Browns under. It’s called a correlated parlay when you take a favorite and over or under and underdog. Browns won’t be scoring much which means hopefully they’re keeping it close.

Seattle and Browns +7.5

Yet another teaser: Pitt 8-1 vs NFC east, 10-4 SU, 6-1 SU at home, 5-2 SU in Philadelphia. Pitt 7-1-1 ATS in October. Philly 1-4 ATS. More of the same reasons above why I like Pitt down to -1 and now for a second leg of the teaser…

Why is Atlanta giving points to anyone? ATL 1-4 SU in last 5, 2-7 SU at home. They have dominated Carolina at home, 5-0 ATS but A) that was under Ron Rivera and B) Kyle Allen/Cam Newton were QBing the Panthers. We all know that Falcons defense is worse than Al Pacino’s last 10 movies. Carolina has won their last 2 and 1 of their 2 losses have been by more than a TD. So let’s give ourselves more breathing room and bump up the Panthers…

Pitt -1 and Car +7.5

by Categories: NFL picksTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment