NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

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NFL ATS picks for Conference Championship weekend

Drink em if you got em, folks.  This is the real last week of the NFL season as we all know the Super Bowl is more pageantry than game.  This is the last week we get to bet on more than 1 NFL game so it’s bittersweet as it’s the beginning of the end of football.  And then after the Super Bowl, we ahead into the great abyss.  Or as I call it, Tera Patrick’s gash.  3-4 last week, 6-4 overall.  I snuck out the Pats over, thanked Christ the Eagles missed the PAT to get my first half under, and had a puckered up asshole as Vikes late TD didn’t kick the PAT to cover the Saints.  Lost Pitt, the under, Vikes under, and the Falcons.  We all watched Matt Ryan pull off his best “Crohn’s disease patient fucking a woman on his period” impression: shitting his pants in the red zone.  I give that joke a 6.5.

Tom Brady was hurt in practice when a teammate’s helmet accidentally smashed in his hand.  Or so the “liberal media” would want you to think.  I’m sure he really got the injury when one of Giselle’s hooves crushed his hand when he tried reaching for a candy bar.  Jacksonville comes in after a stunning win in Pittsburgh where they dropped 21 on Pitt faster than a Vietnamese black jack dealer in Vegas.  Let’s talk stats: Jacksonville is on its 2nd road game in 3 weeks while the Pats have slept in their own beds for a month.  And teams that put up 40+ in the playoffs the previous week (Jags)? 4-25-1 ATS.  Jags are 2-5 vs NE, 1-5 in NE.  Pats are 6-0 ATS at home, 10-1 of their last 11.  Blake Bortles passer rating is fucking TERRIBLE when they’re behind, 55 QBR.  Do you think the Pats are going to let them get ahead?  They’re going to take Leonard Fournette out early and make Blake Bortles beat them.  Btw, Bortles averaging 151 passing yds and with a 53% completion rate. And do you think the Patriots are going to take their foot off the gas?  Nope.  They’ve outscored their opponents in the playoffs, 80-25 in the 2nd half in the last 4 playoff games. 

Let’s talk over/under.  Pats have hit the under 9/13 but 8/11 over at home.  Jaguars vs Patriots are under 4/6 times as well as 4/6 under in NE.  

The facts are here: Take the Patriots -7.5 and under 46.5

This last game had me debating for the entire week.  The Vikings are good on the road, the Eagles are good at home.  Both teams could have EASILY lost last week.  Both teams are playing with house money as their backup QBs haven’t flinched, yet.  We all know my distaste for that goddamn awful town.  Nick Foles is one of the worst in 3rd and long situations.  Believe it or not, the Vikings D is better on the road than at home (329 yds allowed vs 387 at home) and the Vikes D is top 5 against the run.  But the Eagles D has also been fantastic, 20 points allowed in 3 games.  Philly has been 2-4 ATS and under 6/6. Also 5/6 under at home.  

I’m still not sure but leaning Vikings -3 and under 38.5.  I’m definitely jumping on the Vikes if it gets to 2.5.

Happy gambling and don’t be afraid to grab the first half unders again.  

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over,