NFL week 16 ATS bets and get that FREEEEEE MONEY

5-4 last week (Only because I got greedy and teased TB as well as took them on a ML parlay after adding them late. Should’ve stood pat) 1-0 this week as I grabbed the Titans under so that brings me to 82-75-1 for the year.

Already hit 1 leg of a 2 teasers with the Packers winning by 2 after taking them down to -1.5 With 4 INTs from Mistaker Mayfield, you would’ve expected a bigger margin of victory but shit, I’ll take the win.

Second legs of those teasers?

Bengals down to -1. Simple handicap is that the Ravens are without Lamar and Huntley this week. Ravens lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone, Bengals lead the league in TDs outside of the red zone. Cincy is 1-5 ATS at home but goddamnit, if they just can’t win by a FG or more, shame on them. They are 11-5 SU of late when playing Baltimore at home so we got that going for us…which is nice.

And we’re pairing the second teaser with the Bills. They lost the first time in that insanely windy game a few weeks ago so it’s time for payback….which was also the name of a mediocre Mel Gibson movie. Bills 3-7 ATS of late against NE but 5-2 in December. Always tough to go against Bill Bellichick after a loss but we’re teasing them up above a TD. Bills are getting one of the lineman back on the line while the Pats are down Rhamondre Stevenson and Nelson Agholor. Bills can win this outright but I’ll gladly take the extra 6 and make this…

Bills +8.5

Something about this pick got my spider senses tingling; much like when your mom sends me nude pics of her in the shower when she’s shaving her box. Houston game totals have averaged 41.3 and went under 8/12. recently but I’m feeling contrarian. And the Chargers have gone over 4/5 of late. I put this bet in when Ekeler was still questionable (now out) but Justin Jackson is a more than capable. Cooks is on the Covid list and may play but Davis Mills has gotten better of late and can sling it around. It may be close but I think the Chargers can easily get 31 and if the Texans put up 17, that’s a winner.

Texans over 46

Dallas offense was supposed to be high octane but this engine has been knocking with this low grade gasoline. Zeke and Tony Pollard aren’t lighting it up and Dak’s not airing it out, especially to Amari Cooper. Dallas has gone under 7/8 of late but they’re 7/9 over at home. But I’m playing the Dallas team total under as the Skins defense kept the Eagles to 27 points. I can give up 4 TDs and still win.

Dallas team total under 28.5

Lastly, only 3 teams in the “heavy favorite ML parlay”: GB, Bucs (they’re gonna lose in Carolina in back to back weeks? Nope), and the Chargers to win.

Good luck and Merry Christmas!

Week 9 NFL against the spread picks 11/7/21

I hate the Cincinnati Bengals with the most burning passion. They burned me on THREE separate bets so I hope they get gonorrhea and burn in hell. That being said, I have Jamarr Chase in fantasy and wish him the best of luck for the season. 3-5 last week, 43-39 for the year which puts me at 52.4%, a tick below break even. Whipped this up an hour before kickoff so had to scale back on writing jokes. Back on the horse, here we go.

I locked this in on Wednesday so obviously before Tyrod Taylor was announced as starter for Texans and they announced today, Sunday, that Tua is out which means it’s Jacoby Brissett. Houston is 2-4 of late, 0-7 SU, 4-1 ATS against Miami but that was with Watson. Miami has been awful of late and you have to think at home that Flores can rally the troops but Brissett coming in at the last minute may fuck things up for me. I may have to grab Pitt with someone else if Dolphins lose. Bears are 3-7 ATS and SU of late but 4-1 ATS against Pitt. Good news, 2-5 SU on the road in Pitt. We’re teasing Pitt down.

Dolphins -.5/Steelers -.5

Atlanta under 4/5 in New Orleans, 8/10 under in November. And Trevor Simian is starting? Yuck. Good news is the Atlanta run defense isn’t that bad and that’s all that the Saints can do. No Calvin Ridley for the rest of the foreseeable future. They’re LAST in deep plays and I’ll wager they start this game off slooooowwww. Ryan blew up against the Saints in their first outing but in a hostile environment, I don’t see a repeat performance.

Falcons under 1h 21

Vikings safety is out and Vikings are 1-5 vs winning teams. Lamar is 11-0 against the NFC and has thrwon 25 TDs with 3 picks. Off a bye after getting blown out by the Bengals. I’ll take the better coach at home.

Ravens -6

Pats have gone under 5/7 on the road, Carolina 9/11 under and 4/5 at home. Panthers get McCaffrey back so get ready for more running. But Darnold’s QBR vs the Pats is IN THE SINGLE DIGITS and guess who’s starting today? This game also starts slow.

Pats 1h under 20.5

Giants D in their last 4 games is top 7 in red zone defense, top 7 in takeaways, and tied for 3rd in sacks. Vegas dead last in RZ defense and oh yeah, their #1 WR decided to do a drunken Dukes of Hazard impression and now resides in the unemployment line…unless he gets a job in the prison commissary. Getting a key number here and after the Ruggs debacle combined with a cross country trip spells trouble for the black and silver.

Giants +3.5

I jumped on when Aaron Rodgers decided to get cute with his choice of words. Packers are killing it of late, 7-0 ATS and SU. GB 3-6 ATS in KC as well. KC has been a dumpster fire ATS as well as straight up. 3-15-1 ATS, 1-9 ATS at home. They’re 14-6 SU of late and barely beat the Giants. But goddamn, if they can’t beat Jordan Love at home by a FG or more, it’s time to hit the panic alarm. First leg of teaser #1, Rams is the second leg.

Chiefs -2.5/Rams -1.5

Kyler and Hopkins banged up, AJ Green (who doesn’t turn around in the end zone on the final drive) and JJ Watt are out. Niners get Kittle and Robbie Gould back plus Garrapolo is starting. The trends don’t back this up: 1-4 AS and SU of late, 0-7 SU at home, 2-5 ATS of late.

Niners +1

Den 1-4 ATS and SU. Den 2-4 ATS for the year but 6-2-1 ATS overall against Dallas (not with Dak). Dallas 7-0 ATS, 6-0 SU. Dallas scored 35 at home in 6 straight and Von Miller traded from Den to the Rams? That’s the white flag being waved. Bridgewater is 18-3 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a touchdown dog or more. Den is 0-4 when opponents score more than 14 pts. So let’s do a 7 point teaser and pairing that with the Rams who are 7-1 SU of late. No Derrick Henry is a HUGE loss for that “run first” offense. Rams are 4-1 SU of late and at home. Oh yeah, they got Von Miller to help Donald pass rush? Stop it.

Dal -3/ Rams -.5

Everything explained above and do you see the Bills losing in Jax? HAHAHAAHA. Bills 5-1 SU of late, 10-5 ATS in Jax, 6-1 ATS in Jax. Jags are 3-8 ATS and 1-19 SU of late. Also, 1-10 SU at home. Please.

Dallas/Bills/Rams Ml parlay

Probably taking Chargers -1.5

NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

NFL Divisional playoffs round

3-2 last weekend, 56-47. Hit the Saints/Titans teaser, the 3 way parlay, and the Bucs/Bills teaser. Lost the Rams under/Bucs under teaser and Bucs under/Titans over teaser.

I’ll be goddamn if I lay 1 red cent on Jared Goff in the playoffs, let alone in cold temperatures.  Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s like betting on Seth Rogen to do a film without having his character being an awkward pothead. Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007. GB 5-1 against the Rams to boot. Packers are 4-2 ATS of late, 6-0 SU of late, and 5-0 SU at home. Packers are 7-2 ATS in January. The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald is banged up. At least Dr. Strange came up with 1 out of over hundred million scenarios where the Avengers beat Thanos. I can’t think of one that doesn’t involve Aaron Rodgers getting injured or thrown in jail for underage women the night before the game. BUT…I want to make this rocking chair game even easier as I want to tease another game so let’s make this…

First leg of the teaser: GB -.5

I gotta admit, I was leaning Buffalo at first…until I started getting into the numbers and your moms’ boxes. Let’s call it as we saw it; Bills looked pretty exposed against the Colts and my asshole was puckered up HARD that last quarter. Ravens stopped the best RB in the NFL last week; what do you think they’re going to do to Devin Singletary? And they stopped Tannehill who is a top 10-15 QB. I think they’re gonna run the ball right up the Bills taint this week. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road. Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league. Baltimore 6-3 ATS against Buffalo, 4-1 SU. Ravens 13-2 SU on the road. Buffalo 6-0 SU at home, 7-0 SU of late, 8-1 ATS. 2 things scare me: if it snows, Lamar has NEVER played a game in the snow. But it’s supposed to be snow showers with winds of 10-20 mph. Which definitely favors the run and takes something away from the Josh Allen passing attack. Would you be shocked the Ravens won? Nope. Is this going to be close? Yep. so let’s make this the focal point of our teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Ravens +8.5

Andy Reid does two things great: remain morbidly obese and crush teams off a bye. BUT KC hasn’t been doing their 1990’s Florida State Bobby Bowden impression and run shit up. Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span. Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season. I think Baker blew his load like TT Boy and Peter North joined forces with a thermonuclear geyser of jazz. By the by,  Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season). Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season. I think the Browns definitely lose this but laying 10 is absurd for all of the above reasons I’ve cited. Browns have been good of late SU, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 SU of late. Chiefs 13-2 at home, 1 of those losses is with their B squad in week 17. So it’s 7 point teaser time and I know some of you may say, “Why not take the Browns to +17, that’s a super sharp play?” It sure is and I won’t eat your lunch for it. But could you see the Chiefs coming out, off the bye, and sick and tired of hearing how they’re barely eeking games out. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs win by 20.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Chiefs -3

History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS. New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017). New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.  Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times. Man, that’s a lot of data backing both teams. So I’m pivoting. Saints/TB have gone over 4/5 in NO, TB/NO over 5/7 of late, and Tampa goes over 15/20 vs NFC. Saints have gone under 7/10 but who have they played? Broncos (the no QB game), Carolina, ATL x2, Philly, Niners, Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs. Not many high powered offenses in there except the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs. But the 7 pt teaser makes this an EASY pick

2nd leg of teaser Bucs over 45

Last bet is a ML parlay as the last 2 weeks I’ve hit those. GB/Saints/Chiefs. I think the Saints are the biggest question mark in that equation but let’s cross your fingers.

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

NFL Week 12 picks against the spread

What’s this?? Gutting the Sacred Cow #38 on iTunes top 100 for films

3-3 last week and I took the Dallas under on Thanksgiving night. Well, that turned into a loss because Mike McCarthy is a fuckhead, dumb dildo coach who goes for it on 4th down deep in his own zone TWICE and of course, Washington gets touchdowns both times. Bringing my yearly total to 35-31-2, 53%. God, I’m even ready to fade my as we’re JUST above break even for the year. Let’s get some winners here:

The easiest bet has been the Chargers over. The second easiest bet will be Anthony Lynn getting fired. The third easiest bet will how awesome our Gutting the Sacred Cow live show be. And if you haven’t gotten tickets yet, I just happen to have the link right here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

Chargers have went over 7 straight over. The Chargers’ totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62. Chargers defense allowed 28 points in 4 straight. Chargers 8/9 on road. Bills over 8/10 and 4/5 over at home. Bills over 8/11 against AFC west. Bills bottom half ranked defense.

Teased Chargers over down to 45.5

Did I ever get the Falcons wrong last week. The Saints defense was more fired up than a sheikh in a roomful of drugged up runaways. Now they play Drew Lock? Broncos 17/21 under vs teams with a winning record. Last 3 games, Saints allowed 8.3 ppg and 6 total second half points. Saints #2 in rushing defense. Denver 70% under at home. Taysom Hills first time in altitude? Not many points going to happen there…especially now that Denver had ALL FOUR QBs GO ON THE COVID LIST. Yeah, they have a guy named Hinton at QB today. The new line is Saints -15.5 and o/u 36.5. I could see teasing the Saints -9.5 and over 30.5. This game could easily be 24-7 and that’s a winner. Thank Christ I locked in Saturday afternoon before this news broke. Closing line value, baby!

2nd half of teaser is Saints under 49.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore may not even happen as more covid cases are popping up. James Connor just got put on the covid list but so is Lamar Jackson. Now, Lamar may play if he passes a few more tests. Both teams haven’t practiced all week so this may be a bit of a shitshow. Bal 1-4 in last 5. 4-0-2 in Pitt. Covid everywhere. 7-1 ATS last 8, 10-0 SU, 5-0 at home SU, 6-0 ATS against AFCI HAD to jump on it when the number was 4. It’s now 7 so I’d recommend teasing Pitt down if I were you; no way in hell would I lay more than 4 in a division game.

Pitt -4

I’m breaking cardinal rule number 1 as a Giants fan (NEVER bet on the NY Giants unless it’s the under) but guess what, it’s been working of late. Giants 8-0 ATS on the road. Now, I’ll preface that last fact by saying damn near all of those games were as underdogs. This is the first time we’re laying points. They’re off the bye, fired up, and even fired their offensive line coach. The gang is playing for Joe Judge and that’s what I want to see. Giants have scored on 70% of RZ trips in the last 3 games. Brandon Allen QB for the Bengals, under 50% completion. Giants 6-1 ATS of late, 4-2 SU against Cincy. Cincy 6-3 ATS of late, 1-4 against NFC

Giants -5.5

The Niners are getting healthier and I could care less. You think the Niners are coming to LA and hanging tight? Maybe. Rams 6-0 at home, 4-2 ATS of late. 8-1 SU against NFC, 7-2-1 against NFC west. SF 2-5 of late ATS and SU but 7-3 ATS and SU against Rams. 5-12-1 against the NFC west. So all that said, we’re going to make our lives easier.

First half of the teaser Rams -1

I’ll be goddamned if I ever have to trust the Bears again after they couldn’t do shit on a monday night 2 weeks ago. And now they’re starting Mitch Trubisky? Jesus Christ, lock and load. Bears are 7-13 ATS of late. 5-14 ATS against GB, 1-7 SU against GB and 2-10 SU in GB. Bears 3-7 ATS on road. 4/5 Bears losses by 8 points or fewer. GB 2-4 ATS of late. 13-4 SU of late, 9-1 SU at home. You think after a loss on the road they don’t rebound against a divisional foe?

and Packers -2.5 make up the 2nd leg of the teaser.

Titans looked great last week against the downward spiraling Ravens, one of the teaser halves I gave you. Tennessee 3-1 on the road. Titans and Colts, whomever wins the first meeting (Colts) is 7-17-1 in rematch. Titans 10-4 SU but 1-4 ATS. Colts 6-3 ATS, 4-1 SU, 5-1 SU at home. Tennessee plays tight on the road so let’s get us more than a TD cushion. No better time than to get some free points so why not

Make the first half of a teaser Titans +9

Tua sprained his thumb on a teammates helmet in practice and is doubtful for tomorrow. Which means everyone’s favorite bearded genius, Ryan Fitzpatrick, gets to come in and through all over the Jets putrid defense. Yes, I know the Jets have covered against the Pats and Chargers but which of these 2 teams are going to the playoffs? Bingo. Miami defense is going eat alive Sam Darnold who returns after a 2 game absence. Miles Gaskin (not Miles Dyson, the creator of Skynet) just may return tomorrow to. Dolphins 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 SU against the Jets.

But since we need a team to pair with the Titans, the Dolphins down to -1 is more appetizing than your moms’ whorish mouth making kissy faces at me.

Second half of the teaser, Dolphins -1

NFL Week 9 ATS bets

I’m retiring that Scrooge McDuck bank vault dive because every time I use it, I get smoked. 2-5 last week, bringing me down to 27-22 and 55% for the year. That’s the lowest I’ve been in 3 seasons, yeeeesh. But oh golly, I feel hot today (Caddyshack quote for you those who know the film better than you know your spouses) So the photo this week is a great way to announce Gutting the Sacred Cow LIVE podcast tickets are now on sale! https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

LOVE Arizona now -5.5. I locked in yesterday at 4pm and the line jumped 2 FULL POINTS. Talk about closing line value. You mean to tell me Tua who just had a 3 yd TD pass is just a 5.5 point dog? The special teams, defense, and 1 yd TD run was the rest of the offense for the Dolphins. You have to throw out all recent stats with Miami (5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 SU, 9-3 SU vs AZ) as they’re a completely new team with Tua. Bona of late 5-2 ATS

Arizona -3.5 but I still like it for -5.5, both need win by more than a FG

One of the few winners I had last week was the Steelers getting 10.5 in Baltimore as part of a teaser. We saw the Jackson had a hard time throwing it because the Steelers took them out of the running game. And of course, the Ravens can run over everyone. I also know that when Leonard plays for the Colts, they’re something like 5-1 ATS. This is strictly a bounce back game for the Ravens as they’re 12-5-1 of last 18 and 17-3 SU of 20. Bal 9-0 SU on the road. Colts are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU and playing well. But guess what? Sharps pounded Indy so now it’s Bal +1.5 and I said let’s make that even safer…

Teased Baltimore +7.5

Who to tease with? Well, I should’ve bought out of the Raiders bet against Cle. Raiders are playing the Charges who have blown THREE 17 point leads this year. In LA but who gives a shit? Vegas is 6-3 ATS of late and 5-1 ATS on the road. Chargers are 4-2 of late but 1-5 SU of late and 1-4 SU at home. But again, let’s give us some wiggle room…

Raiders +7.5 second leg of the Bal teaser

Sam Darnold is doubtful but honestly, would it matter? Jets are 1-7 ATS of late, 0-8 SU, 1-4 SU at home, 1-5 SU home vs NE. And Joe Flacco is playing? Wow. I know know the Pats have been awful of late, 3-6 ATS and 1-5 of late. But man, you think Bellichick is losing to the Jets? On Monday night? After 3 straight losses? I don’t. But again’ let’s be safe and..

Tease the Pats to -1.5 and Sea over 48.5 as the second leg of the teaser.

Buffalo Over in 6/8, 4/5 against AFC east. Bills over 6/8, 9/9 vs Seattle, and 6/6 over vs NFC West. Seattle over 6/8 and 4/5 vs AFC.

Russ is something like 14-7 ATS on the east coast for 1pm games. Buffalo defense has been awful of late. All but 2 of their games (1 against the Jets) they’ve given up 20 points or more. And they gave up 21 to a shitty Pats team in the rain last weekend. Seattle’s high octane offense can easily gash this trash bag defense. Seattle 5-2 of late, 6-1 SU. Sea 10-3 SU on the road and Sea 5-0 ATS in November. Bills 1-4 ATS of late, 2-4 ATS at home. Laying a FG on the road with Russ and no real RB= a lot of chunk plays for big yards. BTW, Russ is -150 to win MVP this year. Who would’ve thought a guy who has a virgin until he met Ciara was capable of this (pun intended) explosion. Looks like him and AC Green have a lot to talk about…

Seattle -3

Drew Lock was impressive last week and now he gets to play in a dome against the worst pass defenses? Den 5-2 ATS, 7-3 SU against ATL, more importantly 4-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 SU in ATL. No Calvin Ridley either for the Falcons. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in November. ATL 2-4 ATS and 2-6 SU, 1-14 vs AFC. This makes a quick and easy 1st leg of a teaser.

Denver +10.5 and teasing AZ to +.5

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5