Week 15 NFL Picks ATS

5-2 last week, ohhhh baby.  Looks like my daughter gets more than a Hess truck for Christmas.  Just kidding, we make a real living.  And I’ll heavily wager that if you got a Hess truck for Christmas, you had a divorced dad who forgot to buy a Christmas present for you and had to call an audible at a gas station.  So the money came pouring in last week and for the year, I’m 61%.  SIXTY ONE PERCENT, THAT’S FUCKING INSANE.  AND YOU SHOULD BE TIPPING ME OUT FOR THESE GENIUS PICKS!  Feel free to do so at PayPal: Kgootee@hotmail.com

And if you were curious about the new Star Wars film, check out my review here: Star Wars The Last Jedi Review (No spoilers)

I like the Saturday night game, here’s why: KC under hits 13/18 at home.  KC also under has hit in 4/5 as well as when KC plays LAC, the under has hit 5/7.  And LA has hit the under 4/5 on the road and 7/8 games.  

Took KC under 47

You know who’s bad?  The NY Jets on the road.  They got ram-rodded (probably a top 5 gay bar name) by the anemic Denver Broncos.  Yes, Josh McCown got knocked out of the game.  And who came in, Bryce Petty.  I’d rather have Lori Petty or the corpses of Tom and Richard Petty.  You know who’s good?  The Saints.  You know who’s REALLY good?  The Saints after a loss.  Let’s also add that the Saints have had 10 days to prep for this game after yours truly picked Atlanta to cover against them last Thursday.  No Wilkinson for the Jets as he’s truly a piece of shit and probably won’t play a game for the rest of the year.  Jets are 0-5 in road games facing a team with a winning home record.  Jets are 1-5-1 of late.  Saints are 6-2 vs the Jets and 5-1 ATS as home favorites of 10.5 or more.  This line is 16.5 and I don’t give 2 flying fucks.  The Jets will be lucky to score 10 points but that won’t matter because the Saints are scoring at least 35. And here’s why you should take the under as well.  Jets are 6/8 on the road as the under.  Saints vs Jets has the under hit the last 4/6.  

Take the Saints -16.5 and the under 47

Baltimore Ravens are 7/9 with the over and 5/6 on the road.  Cleveland is recently 4/6 with the over.  No Jimmy Smith for Bal so this is a quick and easy pick.

Take the Ravens over 42.5

I may be too in love with this team but I think the co-lock of the week besides the Saints is the Rams.  After a tough loss, they get Robert Woods back and head into Seattle where the defense is more gored than a tourist who ran with the bulls in Pamplona.  The Rams are 6-2 and 4-1 on the road ATS.  They just lost a tough one to the Eagles.  Seattle of late is 2-4-1 and I see the Rams taking control of the division with a win today.

Take the Rams +1.5

You might be asking me about the game of the day which is the shitbag Pats (And I told you that the Dolphins were covering that game but they go and shock everyone by winning outright, go figure) vs the Steelers.  The Steelers fucked me last week by blowing a 2 TD lead and not covering.  The numbers SCREAM Patriots, ESPECIALLY after a loss.  But for some reason, I think the analysts got into my head and here’s a stat for you.  Ben is 6-1 ATS as a home dog.  But here are some other numbers to consider: Pats are 7/9 with the under and 5/6 on the road with the under.  But when the 2 teams play, they go over 9/13 and 5/7 of late. So I think I MAY take…

The Steelers under 54.  This number is climbing and I think the under is the better play but haven’t locked it in.  This depends on how I do at 1pm.

 

 

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NFL Week 10 picks

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.  Too bad I was right 50% of the time last week, 4-3 for week 9.  The .5 with the Titans fucked me and thanks to a late Baltimore TD and also a late Miami TD to blow the under.  I was flat out wrong with GB as Hundley looked as clueless as most male comics trying to talk to women at a dance club.  The Rams were the lock of the week and the only regret I have is not putting $1000 on that game instead of just 500.  You should’ve seen me at that Giants/Rams game; it was raining and just miserable.  I told my buddy, Mitch from Mendham, that when the Rams had 3rd and 33 that they were probably going to convert the first down.  Wouldn’t you know the Rams scored!  I giggled like a maniacal Mad Hatter, the Giants were straight up trash as I knew they wouldn’t answer the bell.  The Jets, Saints, and Eagles were easy ones last week so let’s hope the rest of my picks are just as easy.  

I took the Cardinals +6 on Thursday night and what a punt to the ovaries that was when AZ backdoor covered but had their PAT block.  That went from a surefire win to a push so we start the week, 0-0-1

Let’s go up to Buffalo, where there’s not much to do except complain how cold it is, have a horrible accent, and watch the Bills underperform.  Except this year, the Bills have been playing with some fire in their ass.  It’s amazing how they’re 5-3 this season (4-0 at home?!) with so few offensive offensive weapons.  The Bills were just destroyed by the Jets 2 Thursdays ago.  In come the red-hot Saints but just like Kevin Spacey, the rug is about to get yanked out from under the Pangea birthmark face of Drew Brees.  It’s supposed to be ~40 degrees tomorrow in Buffalo and Brees has had a hard time in cold weather.  But let’s look at something else important; the Bills have had 10 days to prep after that anal probing by the Jets.  Tyrod is good at home; the Bills are 4-1-1ATS at home and I think the Bills can cover 3 or even win outright.  6 in a row is a nice run for the Saints but that probably ends on Sunday at 3:30pm.  The number is right if you can get it.

Take the Bills +3

I got burned by dumbass Travis Benjamin 2 weeks ago on a kickoff where he caught it at the 16 and ran down and across the field and guess what happened?  Safety, lost the game by .5.  If I’m the special teams coach for LAC, I would’ve made him watch Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 until he spontaneously combusted.  Chargers are off the bye and head into Jacksonville who have become red hot of late.  They dismantled an awful Bengals team and even got the level headed AJ Green to get into a fight.  Jacksonville has had a recent trend of having a bad game following a good game but that trend broke last week after 2 straight wins.  Recently, Jax is 8-3 ATS but 3-6 ATS at home.  In come the Chargers, who are used to playing in front of strangers, home and away.  Now, the Chargers are 2-3-1 ATS on the road BUT 12-3-1 ATS on the road vs the AFC south.  A lot of numbers being thrown around here but I think the most important is this one: 4.5.  That’s the spread and I think this is a defensive battle.  LA plays them tight and might even win.

Take the Chargers (I’ll time it right one of these days) +4.5

What did I tell you last week?  I love betting against Brock Osweiller and he didn’t disappoint me last week.  Now he goes back home to play the Patriots who are fresh off a bye.  Yes, the Pats have had troubles there, 2-6 ATS but 6-3 SU.  More importantly, the Pats defense has closed up like a woman’s vagina who gave birth 3 months ago.  Check out these numbers: 14, 7, 17, and 13.  No, those aren’t the number of times your mom came to my house for the past 4 weeks.  That’s the number of points the Pats have given up in their last 4.  And they’re coming off 2 weeks of Bellichek planning?  And now they’re playing against (stifling laughter) Brock Osweiller?  I haven’t been this giddy since the night before I went to Vegas.  As the late, great Ol’ Dirty Bastard said, N—-a please.  

Take the Pats -7.5

It must be my birthday (actually, it was this past Friday so thanks for all the well wishes) because the gambling gods are going to trot out my 2nd favorite QB to bet against.  Tampa Bay has more awful than listening than someone from Philly quoting ET:  “phoooone hoooome.”  And now they trot out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who served up pick 6s better than his Sith lord apprentice, Blake Bortles. The Jets who dismantled the Bills last Thursday have 10 days to prep against Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d rather be a female comedian and go into a hotel room with Louis CK than deal with Fitzpatrick.  Oh yeah, Mike Evans is suspended for his fracas on the field.  Did you see how pissed Evans was with Lattimore?  You would’ve thought that he said to Evans that Steve Harvey was a better host of Family Feud than Richard Dawson.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS vs TB and recently 6-0-1 ATS.  TB is recently 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 ATS at home.  I just don’t see TB rising to the occasion; especially with Fitzpatrick in and Evans out.  No Forte for the Jets but they can still run the ball with Powell and McCown has been pretty solid of late.

I jumped on it too early at -2.5 but now the line is 1.5?  Get all over the Jets!

Who’s hotter than the Rams?  Not many teams besides the Eagles and the Saints.  Although, the Rams are 2-8-1 at home and Hou is 5-2 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.  Oh wait, that was when Hou had Watson at QB.  How did Tom Savage do last week?  Not. Well.  19/44 for 219 and most of it in garbage time.  I think Fred Savage would be a better QB, at least he kissed Winnie Cooper.  And oh yeah, that was against the Colts who have the WORST defense in the NFL.  Rams defense in the last month have given up the following number of points: 10, 17, 0, and 17.  And you think Savage on the road is going to make something happen?  Don’t give me that “Houston defense” argument.  34-17-38-14 (last one against the Colts) are the last month worth of points.  I hate taking big spreads but can you tell me otherwise?  I don’t think so, Tim.  Yep, just worked in a “Home Improvement” reference in a picks column.

Lastly, my only total for the week.  Washington under has hit their last 4/6.  Vikings off a bye are 1-6 ATS so I don’t see many points being scored.  A metric ton of Redskins are still on the injury report.  I think this one screams 17-14 so throw something on.

Vikings under 41

A lot of people are liking the Titans but I can’t make a good enough argument for them as 4.5 is a weird number for them to cover.  Cincy is due to play well ONE of these days.  I will probably take Mia +9 against an on again/off again Carolina team.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts cover +10 at home.  And lastly, I like (but will never bet) the Giants to win in SF.  Literally half of the Niners are on the injury list.

 

Week 5 NFL picks ATS

Anyone have the Chiefs or the over on Monday night?  I hope you take your profitable asses and stick your heads in a blender.  Cause I put up 145 in fantasy football last week and LOST because the guy I played had the fucking KC defense.  On a fucking backwards pass.  On the last play of the game.  Boy, imagine if you had Washington and the under?  You were EASILY counting that money and buying shit on Amazon or double ended dildos, just as a gag gift to sword fight with your buddies.  Next thing you know, you got dildos in the mail which reminds you how you royally got fucked in the ass.  This HAS to go in the gambling hall of fame story as the luckiest bet/baddest beat ever.  

I mentioned profitable above and that’s the perfect description that fits me last week.  Your boy only had 3 picks but guess what?  All 3 were WINNERS.  I did take TB and the under this week.  The under on cruise control but let’s talk about TB.  Cameron Brate dropped a TD that went right into his belly.  3 plays later, missed FG by Nick “Cuntface” Folk.  He missed THREE FGs, which makes me wish a colony of fire ants takes residency in his urethra.  Bucs score late, giving me the backdoor cover.  Great…until they don’t get the onside kick and Gostkowski pulls his anti-Cuntface Folk impression by drilling a 48 yarder.  Lose by .5, awesome.  So we start this week at 1-1 and let’s go to the videotape!

Every year, there’s a team that you just hold onto because they do nothing but cover or hit the over/under.  Last year was my NY Giants under.  This year for me are the St Louis Rams.  They’re 2-2 ATS but 3-0-1 on the over.  Rams are 5/6 on the over and 4/5 at home.  Seattle are 4/5 on the road.  Seattle finally found their offensive groove against the Colts and the Rams are just lighting up the boards.  Seattle D still isn’t what it was and the Rams can score.  I’m debating about taking the Rams -1.5 because Seattle is 0-5 ATS on the road.  Also, 3-7 ATS when playing the Rams.  And that goes back to Dog Dick Jeff Fisher coaching them.  Why is it -1.5 when the Rams are home?  Shitty home crowd?  Overreaction from the bookies?  This opened at a pick em and I’m sure that the public is going to drive up the price.  

I like the Rams -1.5 but I LOVE the over at 46

Dallas lost at home last week (Good, fuck them and their bandwagon fans.  And oh yeah, Rams over hit last week.  No need for flowers, just send a cut of your winnings) and now GB comes into town.  GB with 10 days to prep and Davantae Adams passed concussion protocol.  Who do I think will win?  I think Dallas gets redemption but will I be laying hard earned dollars on them?  Probably not being that Dal is 3-8 ATS and 2-6 at home.  ESPECIALLY against with Rodgers and 10 days off.  What does that mean to me?  POINTS.  Lots of them.  53 is the number, no problem.

Take GB over 53

What wins by KC and Hou last week.  Houston destroyed the Titans so badly that Denzel won’t be able to remember them.  KC is very good and they’re in Houston this week.  How good is KC?  Good but not good enough to go undefeated.  The Texans are 9-2 SU at home so why does that matter?  The game is a pick ’em.  I think the Texans are rolling and have something special.  KC played Monday night so we’ll see if they’re lacking a little.  It’s time for their first loss and Hou is just moving right along.

Take the Texans at a pick ’em

I’m not feeling as strong about these next picks but kind of like them:

I hate betting the Eagles because A) I hate that town and B) Every time I bet them, they fuck me.  But goddamnit, Arizona is checking a LOT of boxes this week: Carson Palmer is the most sacked QB.  AZ cannot run the ball.  AZ also playing an East Coast team at 1pm.  And AZ just lost their best LB, Golden, to injury.  Zona 1-4 ATS in their last 5.  Philly 5-2 in their last 7 ATS and 6-3 at home.  And I have them as my suicide pool pick this week.  Watch them lose 27-21 at fuck me twice but man, they have to cover for me one of these days.  

Take the Eagles quickly at -6.5 before it goes up.

The experts are saying Baltimore is so bad that they’re taking the Raiders with EJ Manuel as QB.  I’d rather have Emmanuel Lewis as my QB than him.  I just cannot see the Ravens who have been smoked 2 straight weeks losing for a 3rd.  And you’re getting 2.5 points with the Ravens?  Boy, this is a statement game when you’re facing a banged Raiders o-line?  

Take the Ravens +2.5 and cross your fingers.  If it gets to 3 or more, I’ll take them.

 

Week 4 NFL picks

So fall is here and dudes who have been caught cheating on their wives are forced to go apple picking will be missing on some quality football this weekend.  Key message: Don’t get caught and use a burner phone.  Last weekend was interesting to say this least.  I ended up taking Car under, Pats over, Jacksonville, GB, and AZ under this past weekend.  That puts me at 4-3 for the week, not bad.  10-9 on the year. This week, there aren’t many games that I’m liking.  Hence why there aren’t as many picks.

I’m breaking my own rule with my first pick which is NEVER bet on the NY Giants, except the under.  But goddamnit, they covered last week and could’ve won.  I just can’t see them going to Tamp-er (Mike Francesa voice) and losing 4 straight, ok?  This team probably jelled too late to make the playoffs but they’re too good to be THIS bad.  They’ve always done well in TB, TB is banged up, and they’ll be a ton of Giants fans there too.  And they’re getting 3 points?  Please.  They’ve been getting beat up in the press all week so they’re going to come out fired up.

Take the Gmen +3

I’m liking the Broncos because they A) are at home B) are coming off a loss and C) are 8-3 ATS vs Oakland.  I know Oakland does well on the road (10-4 ATS) but they didn’t last week in Washington.  Denver is 8-3-1 at home and I like them to bounce back.  You’re laying 3 which isn’t a big deal.  Would it surprise me if there was a push?  Not one bit.  

Take Denver -3

Dallas played monday night and looked sluggish to start but finished nicely to take down the Cardinals.  But not before they gave me a heart attack as I had the under with the Cardinals driving late.  Thankfully, Bruce Arians coaches well as Asians have manners when it comes to getting onto subways.  The Rams have had 10 days off after their Thursday offensive explosion to plan for Dallas.  Dallas D is banged up and the Rams D is nothing special.  Both teams can put up points and believe it or not, Goff is the 3rd rated QB in the NFL.  He’s already thrown as many TD as he has all of last year.  Expect points…I am.

Take Dallas over 48.5

I kind of like Cincy -3 and SD -2 but not betting them.  Can see it going that way though.

 

 

NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

I’m back from Vegas and my liver wishes I had just shot in and left it to die in the desert.  We ate like kings and the Vegas 3 had a fucking blast.  Maybe one of these days, you’ll get an invite!  

If you took my picks last week, I wholeheartedly apologize.  The Pats shit the bed, the overs whiffed, the Giants were god awful, and the Rams destroyed that under themselves.  New week, new picks!  But first, remember that Comics Watching Comics is on Amazon Video!  Season 2 has just gone up and t-shirts are for sale.  To get one, contact me through the site.  I’m still working on a credit card link so bear with me.  I’m taking PayPal for the shirts which also accepts credit cards.

I’ll be goddamned if the Patriots don’t rebound in a big way in New Orleans this weekend.  The Pats have been off for 10 days to let this stew in their cheating brains.  Bellichek probably cut 4 guys on defense for letting the rookie RB, Hunt (Guess who sat him in TWO fantasy leagues.  At least I won 1 of them), stampede all over them.  You don’t think he’s had time to scheme against the Saints and shut down Brees; like the Vikings did on Monday night?  I don’t care Amendola is out, this is a statement game.  Pats are 8-1 ATS on the road of their last 9.  You can even take the over as when the Saints and Pats play, the over hits 7/9 times.  But I see Brady going into pure “fuck you” mode and they’re covering, come hell or high water, which is also a highly overrated film.

Take the Pats -6.5

Arizona looked nothing special against Detroit last week.  They also lost arguably the top RB for at least 2 months.  Indy is at home and I don’t see AZ covering.  AZ is 3-8 ATS out of their last 11.  2-5 ATS on the road.  They look old and the number (7) is right.

Take the Colts +7

I had these fuckers as part as an over last week and they didn’t hold up their end.  I do think that the Skins are due for a win and the Rams blowing out the Colts shouldn’t scare anyone.  Stats?  Sure.  Skins 4-0 ATS after a loss.  10-5 ATS in their last 15.  9-2 ATS on the road in their last 11.  Rams don’t have any kind of home field advantage.  Cousins rebounds nicely as everyone’s favorite politically incorrect team (Who cares about team names, go save people in hurricane areas instead of worry about that shit?) wins outright.

Take the Skins +2.5

Miami just had their bye earlier than they wanted.  Which also means they’ve had well over a week to plan against the Chargers.  You watch that Chargers game?  I did, from a blackjack table at the Cosmopolitan hotel while handing my chips slowly over to a dealer who was missing a tooth.  The Broncos should’ve covered that game with ease if it weren’t for a couple of weird plays.  And now SD is home this week against the Dolphins. Remind you, they’re now playing in a new (soccer) stadium in a new city where no one gives 2 shits about NFL football.  So no home field advantage.  Some may argue Miami may be rusty but I’m going to say they come bursting out at the seams.  Some stats, why the hell not?  Mia 8-3-1 in last 12 ATS.  4-2 ATS on the road.  And 8/9 games SD has played Mia has resulted in an under.  

Take Mia +3.5 and the under 45.5

I didn’t see much of the GB game as I didn’t have any money on it and apparently, I didn’t miss much.  I saw some of the Atlanta game and I saw the Bears make a late run at them, covering and almost winning.  But here’s what I do know: both teams score a shitload.  ATL at home hits the over 5/5.  GB is 7/8 hitting the over.  GB and ATL have hit the over 9/13.  GB has hit the over 4/6 when playing in ATL.  That’s enough for me.  This game has 31-28 written all over it.  

Take GB over 56

And now for the lock of the week: Seattle lost in GB last week and now they’re home against a hapless Niners team.  A divisional rival in their building reeks of trouble.  A divisional rival after a loss is even more trouble.  And yet again, more stats to prove it.  Sea is 5-0 ATS vs SF.  Sea is 11-1 ATS vs SF. SF is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16.  2-7-1 ATS on the road.  14 is a big number but do you see McCown doing much against an angry Seattle D?  I sure as fuck don’t.

Take Sea -14