NFL week 12 picks ATS

There are moments in your life where you catch such fire, you feel like an immortal Highlander.  You CAN’T lose.  You’re playing blackjack and have a 5 way split, all with double downs.  The dealer busts.  EUPHORIA.  You’re playing poker and get hit the nut flush on the river and your opponent shoves all in.  SPIKE OF ADRENALINE.  You can’t call fast enough.  You’re in a Vegas club, meet a 10, and she can’t even wait to get back to your room…she wants to fuck in the elevator.  YOU CAN’T SEND OUT A BRAGGING GROUP TEXT TO YOUR BUDDIES FAST ENOUGH.  Then, like Robert DeNiro tells Al Pacino in the amazing film, Heat.  “There’s a flip side to this coin.”  You’re at that same blackjack table, draw to 19, and the dealer draws 7 to 21.  COLD PANG OF DESPAIR.  You’re at that same poker table, hit a straight, and shove all in.  As you announce straight, your opponent says, “To what?” And then shows the higher straight.  ACHING FEELING IN THE BALLS.  You’re in that same club in Vegas, meet a 7 in a club, go back to your room and wake up the following morning and then remember how you raw dogged.  Oh yeah what were those mysterious bumps down there??  COLD SHIVERS UP YOUR BUTTHOLE.

And that’s what the last 2 weeks have been for me.  5-10 in the last 2 weeks, including last night’s New Orleans under 60 win.  Now, I’m 40-34 for 54% YTD.  Jesus Christ, I was 59% a few weeks ago at a tally of 35-24.  

Let’s see if we can get off the slide and so far, we’re looking good at a 1-0 start for the week. BTW, go out right now and get a New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl at +250.  Lowest number on the board for the sole reason of THEY’RE GOING TO WIN THE SUPERBOWL.  Drew Brees is going to go out on top and he has an alright defense for once.  No one is coming into that dome and knocking them off.  

Week 12, here we go.  Diiiiiicks out.

Lock of the week is:

I know I said on Fantasy Football Jibber Jabber this week (Yep, I’ll shoehorn a plug in for my show.) 

that my lock of the week is the Carolina over 46.5.  I still kind of like the call but I like Carolina -3 a lot more.  Why?  Carolina is 14th against the run but 24th against the pass.  Panthers are the 3rd best running team in the NFL.  Seattle defense isn’t that great against the run, 20th in the NFL but 6th vs the pass.  So logic dictates that Carolina is going to be running the ball more, therefore eating more clock up.  Also, this is the typical “west coast team flying to play a 1pm game.”  The Seahawks have gone 5/6 under of late and Seattle plays to the under 5/6 in Carolina.  More stats? Sure, you’re not paying for this curated info.  Seattle is 2-4 ATS in Carolina, 1-3-1 against Carolina.  And at home, Carolina is a whole new animal, 4-1 ATS.  I could still make an argument for the O/U as it’s low-ish at 47.5 but I feel more comfortable putting my money on (and I did) with

Taking Carolina -3

The Giants under was one of the 5 losses I had.  And who could blame me?  When was the last time the Giants dropped 30 on anyone?  When Obama was president.  When it was still ok to be a straight white guy.  When you could fly on an airplane without getting your ass whooped or your pets killed.  Don’t look now but that’s 2 straight overs for the Giants.  Scored 38 and 27 points in their last 2 and now facing a completely decimated Eagles secondary?  Sign me up.  Barkley almost had 100 rushing on top of his over 100 receiving.  Beckham with 3 TDs in his last 2 games.  The Eagles just finished wiping the Saints’s jizz off from all over their asses from last Sunday.  The only problem is that Philly has always been a house of horrors for the Giants.  Giants are 1-5 SU in Philly, 2-4 ATS.  Good news: Giants are 5/5 over against Garbage Town, USA.  Although they’re 6/8 under in Philly and Philly itself is 4/5 under, I think they put up points.  And 47 is low for today’s NFL.  Doesn’t take a Gootee to figure out where this is going:

Giants over 47.  And you also may want to invest in the Giants team total and go over that.  That Eagles D is DECIMATED. Also took Barkley OVER 53.5 receiving yds and Giants team total OVER 21.5

Like a woman who goes home with a dude after grinding on him for 2 hours in Vegas, I don’t normally do this.  I haven’t taken a teaser in EASILY 7 years but good ol’ Steve Fezzik makes a great point.  No better way to take 2 teams that are laying 7 or 7.5 points with a 6 point swing and get them down to less than a FG. I took Dallas down to -1 and they covered with ease.  Second half of the teaser, Indy -1.5  Who’s hotter than Andrew Luck right now?  Emily Ratajkowski.  Goddamn, she could wear a Queen Victoria dress as well as a newspaper boy hat while sporting a Mike Tyson face tattoo.  I’d still be harder than a shark’s tooth.  Miami is 1-9 ATS on the road, 2-5 of late.  Fins are 2-4 playing Indy but oddly enough, they’re 7-1 in the land of Applebees VIPs.  But the Dolphins are getting Tannehill back and who can figure out if that’s a good thing or a bad thing?  The Dolphins have Davante Parker and Danny Amendola listed as questionable, making Kenny Stills the only healthy receiver.  Colts are 4-1 SU of late and 4-2 SU at home.  I’m only laying 1.5 with the teaser so that’s as SU as you can get.  

Teased Dallas to -1 and Indy to -1.5

Another team that completely singed my scrotum last week was the Minnesota Vikings.  God, this team has been all over the place this year and you may be wondering when is the safe time to bet them.  My answer?  Definitely not in the playoffs but I think this Sunday is a good time.  Here’s why.  They just got smoked by a division rival who’s on the way up and in comes another division rival who is on the way down.  Green Bay is 10.5 points WORSE on the road than home, which makes them #32 in the NFL, THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  Let’s also mention that Aaron Rodgers is below .500 on the road.  Lastly, it’s blatantly obvious that the Packers are quitting on McCarthy and he may not make it till the end of the year.  If they lose this week, he could be gone monday.  And I bet Seattle last week home against the Pack, laying 2.5 points.  The number closed at 3 and ended up pushing.  And that’s why it’s perfectly ok to take a number IMMEDIATELY if you like it instead of waiting till Sunday.  Vikings at home: 36-16-2 ATS under Mike Zimmer and and even bigger sample size, 47-23 ATS at home.   Bottom line, Vikings are 72% ATS at home, the second best team at home ATS is the Patriots at 56%.  One more oddball stat: Vikings are 36-15-1 on field turf.  I’m sure they have a stat about playing on a cross bluegrass, Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and northern California sinsemilla.  BANG!  Another Caddyshack reference makes the column.  

Jump on the Vikings -3 as it’s probably headed back to -3.5

And now for words that usually don’t make people money.  I like the Buffalo Bills this week.  I’ll hold for laughter.  Done?  One more?  Sure, go ahead, I need to pee anyway.  Ok, I’m back.  You’re good?  Cool.  Last time we saw the Bills, they completely set ablaze my 1st half under 17.5 bet at the Jets 2 weeks ago.  Now they’re home, after a bye, against a team who completely dominated the Steelers for 57:30 and then lost late.  They’ve lost 5 straight.  A warm weather team going up to play inside one of the coldest places, Lena Dunham’s vagina.  Jax 0-3-2 of late ATS, 3-5-1 on the road.  Blake Bortles (second best gay porno name) is just putrid on the road, 5 TDs and 6 INTs.  Jax averaging 17 PPG on the road.  So we know they can’t pass, what about Fournette being back?  Whoopedy-doo.  Buffalo is the 10th best rushing D in the NFL and the 3rd best in the last 3 weeks.  I love big defenses getting points at home.  Why is Jacksonsville giving a shit about this game?  No one else will…except me and the others who bet…

Buffalo +3

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