Tag: justin herbert

NFL week 6 picks ATS 10/17/21

The gambling gods are a fickle sort. Last week, I lost not one but TWO teasers by .5 each. The Seahawks throw a pick late and don’t even have the common courtesy to let the Rams get a first down to run the clock out. Then, the Vikings fumble a running play on 3rd down to also kill the clock. Lions score and then Vikings drive the field for a FG. But then, Monday night rolls around with the biggest, “no fucking way that should’ve happened”, when the Ravens stormed back down 20 and won in OT. That saved 2 ML parlays and a teaser, taking me to 4-5 last week and 26-25 for the year. It’s been an AWFUL 3 weeks and let’s hope that changes NOW.

We started off this week 6 on a high note. I teased the Bucs to -1 and Philly managed to backdoor the spread for the regular spread. And that’s why you tease these road TD favorites. I paired that with Chiefs this week. And I told you to go HARD on the Bills and the Bills went morning boner hard on that Chiefs diarrhea defense. Let’s start off by saying there’s not a goddamn way in hell the Chiefs lose this game at Washington. Skins defense looks like a 30 year old Blockbuster video VHS of Terminator 2. We all know the Chiefs are hot garbage ATS (1-5 of late) hence the tease. But the Chiefs are 14-5 SU of late, 7-0 ATS and SU against Washington. Also 11-2 SU on the road and 4-1 SU in Washington. Nuff said

TB -1/Chiefs -.5

Raise your hand if your asshole puckered up from 1-3:30pm last sunday. Why? Because the Pats were getting smoked by the hapless Texans and again, this is why you tease road favorites laying more than a TD. Pats won by 3, I laid 2.5. And the sharps LOVE the Pats this weekend against Dallas. Fun fact: teams going into bye weeks are 22-5 ATS. Guess who’s going into the bye this week? Dallas. Guess who has scored more than 21 points in 3/11 home games? Enrico Pallazzo. No, the New England Patriots, silly. Dallas 5-0 ATS of late, 4-1 SU with their only loss against the Bucs opening night. Dallas 2-4 against the Pats and 0-6 against the Pats but obviously, those were against Brady. Pats are 3-6 ATS and SU of late. Most importantly, they’re 1-4 SU at home. The number is perfect for Dallas as you’re just laying a FG and if you’re asking yourself how the Pats could barely move the ball against the hapless Texans for 3 quarters, how can they do that against the Cowboys with Diggs on his way to defensive player of the year.

Dallas -3

Fun facts, just like you hear on the Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast (new episode out now with this week’s film, Raiders of the Lost Ark). Colts are 1-2 as a double digit favorite including an outright loss. Double digits favorites are 5-2 ATS. Texans are 4-2 ATS of late but 1-5 ATS against Indy. Colts are 1-4 ATS at home of late and off a direct cunt punt on the aforementioned monday night. And who the fuck are the Colts laying 10 points? Division game and I’ll gladly take the 10.

Houston +10

Sometimes when you fire in early, you get the better number. I fired in early on the Rams and it backfired a bit as Daniel Jones was announced he’s cleared and that line dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. Welp, as I said before, only donkeys lay more than a TD on the road. I did a 7 pt teaser and took the Rams to 2.5. Rams have allowed just 4 sacks all year and the Giants are 2nd worst in sacks. Giants pass D is 27th in the NFL. Rams with 10 days to prepare, c’mon, really? Although the Giants are 5-0 ATS as a double digit dog with 2 outright wins. But Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 as a home dog. No Golladay and no Barkley. Easy pick for the Rams.

Chargers are a short road dog this week and those dogs +6 or less are 22-8 ATS. Justin Herbert 5-2 ATS as a dog and the Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road dogs since 2004. Chargers 8-1 ATS and SU of late, 4-2 ATS vs Bad and 5-2 ATS in Bal. Ravens not too shabby as they’re 9-4 ATS of ate, 5-0 SU. Here’s the other leg of my 7 pt teaser.

Chargers +10 and Rams -2.5

I’m in teaser kind of mood so heidy ho: Baltimore has gone over 6/6 when they haven’t had full rest as they played 4.5 quarters on monday night. Bad has gone over 5/7 games in week 6. Chargers 4/5 under of late but taking this down to 45.5 should be easy with both of these soft defenses and high power offenses. 27-20 gets it done. Cards are 8/9 under on the road and 5/7 of late. No Chubb for Cle and the under is 7/10 as the favorite. Oh by the way, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Sounds like Drew Carey’s Mimi character is queefing off of lake Erie. Look, I’m tired and the jokes are going to the lazy at this points.

Chargers over 45.5 /Cle under 55

The Packers have beaten the Bears so badly you would’ve thought they wore an Iraq soldier uniform in 1991. GB 4-1 ATS of late, 9-1 SU against the Bears, 10-3 ATS. Rodgers 10 TD no INT against Bears. GB 4-1 ATS against Chi and 4-1 SU on the road. Yes, Justin Fields beat the Raiders last week but was that because the Raiders are frauds or because of Jon Gruden doing his best Daniel Carer impression. Call me a square donkey but I think Mason Crosby unfucks himself and Packers win by a TD or more.

GB -5.5

Dallas has also gone under 5/5 in NE (also against Brady) but 8/9 under vs AFC. Pats 5/5 under when playing NFC. And the Vikings have cooled off when it comes to ATS; they’ve been viciously lucky the last 2 games to win outright but not covering. They’re 2-10 ATS of late, 3-6 SU of late. Panthers off 2 straight losses but Carolina 4-1 when the line is between -3 and +3, Minn 1-4 when this is the case. Carolina defense allowing 2nd fewest yards per play as well as getting their left side of the o line back. I needed something to partner the Dallas under with so let’s get Carolina over a TD. Minn is 2-9 ATS as a favorite,

Dallas under 56.5/Car +8.5

Chiefs/Dal/Rams ML Parlay

Zona is 4-1 ATS of late but holy shit, Covid wiped out the Cardinals than at a mega church in Alabama. Kingsbury, out. QB coach, out. Chandler Jones, out. Kingsbury calls the plays, good luck calling them from his house. Again, high winds in the forecast tomorrow so get ready for a bunch of Kareem Hunt. But never say his name too quickly otherwise people will think you have a potty mouth. Cle 6-0 SU after a loss but 1-5 ATS. Browns 6-0 ATS in non-conference games.

Browns -3

The Detroit Lions have worse luck nerds do in the first 2/3 of a high school or college comedy. Again, I’m tired and the analogies are C- AT BEST. Lions should’ve won the last 2 weeks and now they get Joe Burrow and his banged up voice box. He must sound like Michael Douglas after he got HPV from eating Catherine Zeta Jones’s box. If not now, when, for the Lions at home? Zac Taylor are 1-4 ATS as a favorite Bengals had a million chances last week to put away the Pack and they’ve beat up on bad teams. Cincy 2-17-1 SU last 20 on the road and they’re 2-4 ATS of late. Lions are 4-2 ATS of late and I daresay this is the key number to bet.

Det +3.5

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NFL Week 13 against the spread picks

Heidy-ho neighborinos. 3-3 last week AGAIN, ugh. The Giants got backdoored, that was a gut punch. But being first place as a Giants fan at THIS point in the season? I would’ve turned down +900 odds if you would’ve offered a bet the Giants would be in first at any point in the season after week 2. Enough crowing about being in the first in the rhino shit NFC east division. Anthony Lynn is the worst coach in the NFL BY FAR. Forget Adam Gase for a second; Lynn is the worst clock managing, situation calling HC with last week’s gaffe. Remember, I LOVED the Chargers over teased down. 4th and 27 at the 50 down by 10 and Herbert gets a miraculous Hail Mary. So Chargers have 10 seconds and no time outs. These dumb dildos try to RUN it, not once, but TWICE. Throw the goddamn ball once, maybe twice. And then kick the FG to cut it to 7. (Which would’ve put us at the over). But no, fuckface Lynn doesn’t do it and I lost. So I had to tease GB with Sea which thankfully hit. And for those who listened to me and teased Seattle down to below a FG, you’re thanking me now. Cause if you took them at -6, that was one of the worst backdoor pushes you’ll ever see. 38-33-2 for the year, 53.5% for the year which is just above break even (52.5%), let’s keep climbing.

The Titans are in the bottom 5 of pass rushing teams. Browns are 11-7 SU against teams in bottom third in pass rush. They also have a 9.7 YPA against bottom 5 pass rush teams. Cleveland 8-2 SU in last 10 but 1-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS on the road. What does that mean? Take them as a dog, not as a favorite. Cleveland has one of the top rushing attacks and Baker can play well when the opposing team isn’t blitzing him like when an Instagram model posts thirst trap pics. I think 6 is wayyyy too high and the Titans defense is putrid. Cleveland could win but EASILY keep it close the entire time or backdoor it.

I locked in 2 days ago, Cle +6

Colt McCoy, cool porno name, bad QB. But that’s whose under center after Danny Jones strains a hamstring. Am I here to play loyalist and take my Giants and the points, being they’re AMAZING ATS record as a dog? FOH. I am here to say the Giants won’t be scoring much, as they usually don’t. Plus, they have a good defense as we know. They’re going to lose and it may be kinda close. I expect a lot of running and dump offs which obviously translates to a lot of time taken off the clock. Giants are 4/6 under of late and Sea has gone under 4/6 vs NFC. Weather is supposed to be fine so I’m taking…

Giants under 47.5

Completely forgot how Shanahan owns McVay in last week’s Rams pick. However, Rams are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS off a loss and McVay is 6-0 since taking over the Rams. Let’s also note the Rams are 5-0 in Zona so this is more of the same thing; divisional rival owning one another. Rams D allowing 15.1 rushing yds to opposing defenses, lowest in NFL. Let’s add a dash of a Kyler Murray shoulder issue with a sprinkle of the Cardinals have been BAD of late, 1-4 ATS. And that one…was the hail mary game against Buffalo. Too many numbers on the side of the Rams and a few books have Rams -2.5 at this time but I feel comfortable taking…

Rams -2.5

The last time the Raiders came to the east coast to the play the Jets, they got anally swagglefoosed. Anal Swagglefoose sounds like a great punk band name or gay porn title, tres ja lies, Clarisse. Vegas was embarrassed last week in Atlanta. I can’t see Vegas losing another one; I can’t see them losing to the Jets again. Vegas is 4-1 of late, 4-2 ATS against Jets. 6-2 ATS on the road but 0-6 SU at the Jets. Jets 3-8 of late ATS and Gase is just working out the string until he gets fired 30 minutes after the last game of the season. Can the Raiders get backdoored laying 8? You betcha as they say in Wisconsin. Raiders win but let’s not get fucked like a bunch of you did on Monday night. I locked it in when it was 9 but I teased to down to..

Raiders -3

What else are are going to tease it with? Nothing puts a smile on my face more than Philly losing and me winning at their expense. Philly heads to Green Bay and I know this is going to sound like Squaresville but let’s look at facts. Packers 8/11 over 30 ppg of late. They’re 14-4 SU of late, 10-1 SU at home. GB is 2-5 ATS home against Philly but Philly 2-5 ATS and SU against GB of their last 7. Philly 4-8 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS on the road. Wentz 27th in QBR and no more than 60% completion in his last 7 games. GB has a decent pass rush and Philly doesn’t run near as much as they used to. 8 is also a high number and we know Philly can backdoor anyone because Doug Pederson kicks PATs like Philly fans avoid Zubaz pants and hoodies at bars. Can the Packers cover less than a FG? You betcha. So this is an EASY second leg of the teaser. I jumped the gun too early again when it was GB -8.5 so leg number 2 of the teaser is…

GB -2.5

This last pick is going to have strings attached. IF Cam Newton doesn’t play, do not take this action. I already locked in before knowing he had an injury designation (questionable but expected to play) and I should’ve because Cam gets hurt if someone farts in his general direction. Again, let’s look at facts. You know what Bill Bellichick’s winning % is against 1st year QBs? 65%. So Justin Herbert is going to have a tough day like Michael Douglas did in Falling Down. In a battle of coaches, it’s Bellichick vs Anthony Lynn. This is Mike Tyson vs the Sherminator from American Pie. BB owns the Chargers, 5-0 SU and ATS but those are obviously with Brady. Pats are 1-4 ATS on the road which doesn’t help; except for these facts: Chargers are 0-5 ATS of late, 2-8 SU in 10. 3-8 ATS at home. If ANYONE can fuck up a cup of coffee, it’s Anthony Lynn. You’re giving me 1.5 points? You don’t think they can’t win outright and of course, win with a last minute FG? Why not. And again, this is IF Cam plays.

Pats +1.5

Houston 4-8 ATS and SU of late. Houston 0-7-1 home against the Colts of late. Colts just got violated like an SJW watching American History X. Colts are 7-3 SU of late, 6-1 vs You, 5-2 SU against Houston. Colts missing their left tackle but the Texans lost their biggest receiver, Will Fuller, due to steroids for the year. Colts own them plus on the bounce back.

Colts -3

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Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

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NFL Week 10 ATS picks

Nothing to say but a a disappointing last 2 weeks here and believe me, no one more broken up about this than me. 2-3 last week, bringing me to a total of 29-25 and 54% for the year. We’re slightly above the break even point of 52.5% so I’m be damned if I fall to that level. But before we get into the picks, a shameless plug. If you haven’t bought tickets yet for our live Gutting the Sacred Cow show, please do so. And don’t worry, you’ll get refunded if Covid shuts everything down. I’m running low on time so no horseshit, here we go. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

NEVER bet the NY Giants…unless you’re getting 10 or more points. Yes, Philly is healthier with a possible Miles Sanders return. Philly of late, 3-6 ATS, 2-5 ATS against Giants. Giants are a shocking 5-1 ATS in last 6 with a bunch of blown leads, including 1 against Philly. Line is 4, tease them to 10. And for some reason, I think they could win.

First half of the teaser Giants +10

Niners are indeed banged up but I think we’re getting too much with the number. Saints just played a perfect game against the Bucs and they may get caught looking ahead. Niners are 5-1-1 against NO and 10-3 SU on the road. Saints are 2-5 ATS in last 7. I teased the Niners to +15.5, I don’t think they lose by more than 2 TDs.

Second half Niners +15.5

There is a wind warning in Cleveland, up to 60 mph. Texans are ABYSMAL in the run plus they’re getting Chubb back. They’re gonna take less chances with Baker fresh off the Covid list. Browns last 8/9 have gone UNDER against Houston and under 6/7 in November.

Teased Browns under to 51.5

Bills over 7/9 of late and 7/7 against NFC west. AZ over 5/6 against Buff and 5/5 in November. Both defenses stink so let’s bring that number down to below 50.

Teased Bills over to 49.5

Arizona disappointed me on 2 tickets last week and again, that defense stinks. They’re ripe for a backdoor, let alone losing outright. AZ 5-14-1 SU at home and 3-6 ATS against AFC east. Bills 6-1 ATS against AZ, 7-2 SU of late. Give me more than a TD against a porous defense, done.

Teased Bills to +9

Chargers have been the heartbreak team of the last 2 years. They’ve lost 3 games when having a lead of 17 or more. They should’ve won last week against the Raiders with a late TD that got called off. Chargers are 4-9 ATS of late, Miami 6-1 of late and 5-1 at home. But I think the Chargers do not lose by more than a TD. They’ll find a way to fuck it up late but not by more than 7. BTW, Herbert one of the best against the blitz and Miami blitzes ~40% of the time.

Teased Chargers to +8

Pats BARELY beat the Jets, thank god I teased them to 1.5 Bal 13-5-1 of late, 17-3 SU of late, and 10-0 SU on the road. Also, 6-0 ATS against AFC east. Pats are 1-4 ATS and SU of late. 2-5 ATS of late as well but we’re not going to get cute, we’re teasing this one to…

Teased Ravens to .5

Denver defense stinks as does the Raiders defense. Broncos over 4/5 of late, Raiders over 7/8 of late. Lock is getting a ton of garbage time fantasy and regular points. Den bottom 5 in sack and QB hit rate. Oakland no slouch…themselves.

Teased Den Over to 44.5

Haven’t locked in yet but will probably take the Rams

McVay 4-1 against Sea. Seattle 1-5 SU in LA. Rams 6-3 SU of late, 5-0 SU at home

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NFL Sports bets picks ATS week 7

I wrote a review on Borat 2, go to my blog to check it out.

Well, it finally happened and it took 6 weeks to do it. I had my first losing week last week, 3-4. Down to 59% ATS this year, first time below 60%. Got super lucky with Indy, insanely unlucky with the Ravens, and watched the Cowboys shit the bed hard. What in the living fuck was I doing putting hard earned money on Andy Dalton? Just like Ghislane Maxwell, let’s forget everything before now and move onto this week.

Green Bay got raped and pillaged by the Bucs defense last week. Did you know that the Packers had ZERO offensive turnover until last week? And then Rodgers throws a pick 6 and another INT the following series. On the wrong side of that blowout but you know what’s a smart thing to do? Take a good time just off a blowout and against a bad team. GB 4-1 ATS in last 5, 5-2 SU on the road, and 5-1 ATS against AFC. Houston just had a gut punch loss in Tennessee last weekend and they’re just had a black cloud over their heads: 1-6 ATS of late, 4-9 ATS at home. Houston defense ranked 27th which means they’re barely getting participation trophies. Pack 3-0 ATS after losses. Matt LaFleur said they had a shitty week of practice leading up to the TB game. I don’t think they have the same issue this week. The number is damn near perfect so jumping in both feet on this one:

Green Bay -3

Sam Darnold coming back for the Jets gets me as excited as sitting in traffic. But they’re catching Buffalo at a bad time. Back to back losses and now they’re playing a divisional opponent. Jets are 0-6 ATS and SU this year. Jets under 8/12. I just can’t see a world the Jets score. They’re starting a kicker making his NFL debut and without the only mediocre weapon on offense, Jameson Crowder. The defense has given up 25+ points in 4/6 for the Bills but if they get White back on defense, this makes this a true shit show for the Jets. Jets have put up over 20 points ONE TIME this year. I love the under but I love it when I MAKE IT PART OF A TEASER!

First leg of the teaser- Jets under 50.5.

Second half of that teaser is the game of the week. Those yinzers and butcher of the English language from Pittsburgh are undefeated and they’re also facing the Titans of Tennessee, also without a loss. Pitt 4-1 ATS of late and I know, they’re not as good on the road. Their D is in the top THREE in all the land. But Tenn is 2-4 ATS of late and their defense has given up 30+ points in 3/5 games this year, also ranked 26th. The line flipped to Pitt getting 1.5 points this week as I think the public is still trying to figure out the Titans. You know what’s even easier to figure out? Not 80’s hairdos, that’s for sure. That’s a lot of cocaine and shitty Duran Duran music influencing our judgement. Taylor Lewan (lineman) out for Titans and Pitt yields a scant 2.6 YPC, lowest in NFL. I think Ben definitely keeps it close but nothing better with a 6 point buffer…

Second leg of the teaser-Pitt +7.5

I don’t want to live in a world that the Chargers can’t beat the Jaguars. I also don’t want to live in a world that people think Lizzo is hot but here we are. Chargers fresh off the bye and they got Mike Williams back who blew up against the Saints. I know the numbers are against the Chargers and Anthony Lynn can fuck up a cup of coffee. But after the Jags shocked the world in week 1; sans the one game they almost beat the Titans, the Jags are spreading their cheeks like female standup comedians are on Only Fans pages. Jags are 1-4 ATS of late and 0-8 ATS of late. Hell, they’re 3-10 against AFC west. Herbert has looked great out of the chute. Again, I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers don’t cover 7.5 so no better insurance…

First leg of another teaser Chargers -1.5

I’ve learned you shouldn’t bet the Lions unless they’re playing Jacksonville. I’ve also learned Detroit style pizza, not that bad. But you can hitch your wagon to 3 things: Lions can score, Lions D sucks (of late, 24.6 PPG), and Detroit women are as appealing as a Penn Station bathroom. Lions are over 7/8 in Atlanta and 5/7 over vs NFC south. You can apply the same exact logic to the Falcons except Atlanta women are more attractive but more bougie. Is that hell you spell that? Who gives a shit, you’re here for picks, not grading SATs. Falcons D is 32nd in YPP and 31st in total defense. At least their offense has went over 5/7 and 7/8 home against Detroit. We need a second team to tease so let’s make this one easier than an Adam Sandler movie plot.

Second half of the teaser, Detroit over 48.5

So this next pick I locked in on Friday night as I read the Oakland Raiders had 4 offensive lineman on the Covid list. I guess they were too close to each other placing bets at one of their fan’s dogfights. Well amazing news, I read Saturday night all 4 lineman were tested and cleared to play tomorrow. Well, guess who already locked in Tampa -4? This guy. Well shit, these things happen. And of course, the numbers don’t back up this play: 2-4 ATS against Vegas and 1-5 SU in Vegas. Vegas is 5-2 ATS of late but 1-4 at home. Here’s hoping that the Bucs don’t look past the Raiders and that David Carr and his offensive lineman go licking slot machine handles at Circus Circus. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Tampa -4

The name of the game is value. Which is the exact reason I keep your moms around; really good bang for the buck. Stop if you heard this before: The Saints are great in October. The Saints are awesome off the bye. But remember, we bet numbers. And the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week, that’s HUGE. Teddy Bridgewater knows that Saints playbook Ben Affleck knows where to find the best blue chip hookers and the shittiest scripts. Saints give up on average, 3 RZ TDs per game. Saints won’t have that raucous home crowd and they’re 2-6 ATS of late at home. Saints 2-4 ATS of late while Carolina 4-1 ATS against NO. I’ll take the points against the Saints without 2 of the WR.

Panthers +7

Here’s what I know. It’s supposed to snow like crazy tomorrow in Denver. Like blizzard like conditions. And the total has dropped to 44 KC hasn’t been that offensive juggernaut they were last year and that “run first” offense against Bills on Monday proved that. KC under 4/5 and 7/9 vs AFC west. Broncos under 4/6 and 4/5 against KC. Den under 13/17 at home and 11/12 vs AFC West. Now they go to Denver with a defense that’s stout against RBs. Perfect time to buy some value with another teaser…

First leg of the teaser Chiefs under 50

Seattle 370 passing yds per game. Only guys who haven’t thrown for 300 against Seattle are Kirk Cousins, Kirk Hammett, and Kirk Cameron. Seattle has gone over 4/6 but 5/5 in Arizona and 6/9 vs Arizona. I’m going to ignore the numbers and think Russ off the bye does what he does best and that Kyler Murray gets that Klingsbury air raid going as well

Second leg of teaser Seattle over 48.5

One more teaser, Pats +3 and Bills -4

Happy gambling and eat shit, Eagles fans.

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Week 5 NFL against the spread picks

Don’t listen to that hack, Vegas Dave!

Hello all you cool cats and kittens. 3-3 last week as I won the Gb/KC teaser, Bills, and Mia/over teaser. Lost the Jags, Lions 1h, and TB/under teaser. which brings me to an overall record of 14-7, 67% for the year. So first week that wasn’t profitable but goddamnit, we’re going to hopefully fix it this week.

First up, Washington Redskins. You might be saying, “Why in tarnation are you giving 2 shits about this game? And I’ll say, “Why are you talking like Yosemite Sam?” Haskins is benched and they’re giving Kyle Allen a shot. This is the THIRD cross country trip for the Rams. Chase Young is back and the Skins play tight defense and have a decent pass rush. You saw the Giants disrupt the Rams last week on offense and the Skins have a better front 7 than the Giants. There aren’t many stats to back up my argument because all recent numbers are with Haskins as QB. Pros bet numbers and +7 is a good spot to grab a home dog. As I said, Rams have logged more miles than Bill Clinton and Donald Trump did to Epstein’s private island. And to boot, the Rams have the Niners next week so this could be a classic trap game.

Take the Skins +7

STOP! Teaser Time! Pittsburgh fresh off a Covid bye and now gets an Eagles team who blew their load with that win in SF. Philly stinks, we all know it. And the Steelers d is solid. They’re going to make Wentz look sillier than an Eagles fan trying to take the SATs. under 5/7 in October. Pittsburgh under 8/11 and 4/5 under vs Philly. One more, 10/13 under vs NFC East. Second half of the teaser. Michael Thomas is now questionable but NO still has 2 CBs that are injured. Justin Herbert gunslinger his way to almost beat the Bucs but Anthony Lynn gives people as much hope as a public defender. Saints looked great in Detroit after being down 14-0 early but made the Lions go from Beverly Hills Cop to Beverly Hills Cop 3. Not much data backing me up except for a few key numbers. Saints are 2-5 ATS at home of late. Now, that’s including without fans this year so far. Also, 1-4 at home against the Chargers but those are all Phillip Rivers numbers. We’re playing the numbers and the Chargers are getting over 2 TDs? That Saints d is ripe to get backdoor so let’s take advantage of that key number

Pitt under 50.5 and Chargers +14.5

Browns just blew up the Cowboys defense. That’s not happening to the Colts D who is top in the NFL. Darius Leonard is out for the Colts but that’s still going to keep the Browns offense curtailed. Rivers has become a game manager and so has Mayfield. No Chubb but Kareem Hunt has stepped in nicely. Browns/Indy under have hit 5/7 and in week 5, 4/5 have gone under.

Browns under 47.5

Seattle is just lighting up scoreboards and finding ways to win. Especially Russell Wilson. I’m not crazy about betting on Kirk Cousins as he’s 12-25 ATS after 4pm EST. Minn 1-5 in Seattle, 1-4 SU against NFC west. Zimmer is 0-2 ATS and SU in Seattle. Now, Minnesota D is also putrid but Seattle secondary has a harder time covering receivers than Pete Davidson does covering his teeth with his lips. Jesus, good thing he has a huge honker because that horse face is tough to look at. Now, Seattle is covering games more than you think. 5-1 ATS and SU of late, 11-4 SU at home. 6-2-1 ATS in week 5 and 5-1 ATS on sundays. You can easily tease this both ways, Seattle laying 1 or Minnesota getting 13. But that Minnesota defense has been BAD of late. Is Seattle going to win at home? Yes. Good, don’t be a hero, just win money. Second leg of the teaser…

Browns 0-5 SU home against Indy but 6-1 SU at home. Browns getting a key number with the teaser. Think they keep it close, under a TD. Add in more of the reasons I cited above for the Browns under. It’s called a correlated parlay when you take a favorite and over or under and underdog. Browns won’t be scoring much which means hopefully they’re keeping it close.

Seattle and Browns +7.5

Yet another teaser: Pitt 8-1 vs NFC east, 10-4 SU, 6-1 SU at home, 5-2 SU in Philadelphia. Pitt 7-1-1 ATS in October. Philly 1-4 ATS. More of the same reasons above why I like Pitt down to -1 and now for a second leg of the teaser…

Why is Atlanta giving points to anyone? ATL 1-4 SU in last 5, 2-7 SU at home. They have dominated Carolina at home, 5-0 ATS but A) that was under Ron Rivera and B) Kyle Allen/Cam Newton were QBing the Panthers. We all know that Falcons defense is worse than Al Pacino’s last 10 movies. Carolina has won their last 2 and 1 of their 2 losses have been by more than a TD. So let’s give ourselves more breathing room and bump up the Panthers…

Pitt -1 and Car +7.5

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