58-42 for the year, 58%. Ya hear me? I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS. They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas. Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home. If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means. Yep, it’s teaser time.
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro. The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week. Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills. When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out? 9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7. They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games. No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem. Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC. Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot. The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD. With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP. What does that mean? A lot of clock run off. Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league. Short week for the Ravens as well. Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road. Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would. And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions. Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit. Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week? Said by NO ONE this season. They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock. Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes. Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs. Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground. What does that mean? Running=clock killing. Do you see the Cardinals scoring? I don’t. They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two. The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points. Against the Lions and Falcons. I’ll let that sink in. Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well. The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight. They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division. I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game. Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13. Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF. Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears. Here’s another case of the number being right.
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas. Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many. Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5