NFL Divisional playoffs round

3-2 last weekend, 56-47. Hit the Saints/Titans teaser, the 3 way parlay, and the Bucs/Bills teaser. Lost the Rams under/Bucs under teaser and Bucs under/Titans over teaser.

I’ll be goddamn if I lay 1 red cent on Jared Goff in the playoffs, let alone in cold temperatures.  Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS and outright in his career in games below freezing with zero passing touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s like betting on Seth Rogen to do a film without having his character being an awkward pothead. Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams, and Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings overall dating back to 2007. GB 5-1 against the Rams to boot. Packers are 4-2 ATS of late, 6-0 SU of late, and 5-0 SU at home. Packers are 7-2 ATS in January. The Rams are 21-13 ATS on the road under McVay. Oh yeah, Aaron Donald is banged up. At least Dr. Strange came up with 1 out of over hundred million scenarios where the Avengers beat Thanos. I can’t think of one that doesn’t involve Aaron Rodgers getting injured or thrown in jail for underage women the night before the game. BUT…I want to make this rocking chair game even easier as I want to tease another game so let’s make this…

First leg of the teaser: GB -.5

I gotta admit, I was leaning Buffalo at first…until I started getting into the numbers and your moms’ boxes. Let’s call it as we saw it; Bills looked pretty exposed against the Colts and my asshole was puckered up HARD that last quarter. Ravens stopped the best RB in the NFL last week; what do you think they’re going to do to Devin Singletary? And they stopped Tannehill who is a top 10-15 QB. I think they’re gonna run the ball right up the Bills taint this week. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018. Jackson is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright as an underdog. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS in his career on the road. Baltimore is 11-5-1 ATS this season, tied with Miami (11-5) for the best mark in the league. Buffalo is 11-6 ATS, the third-best mark in the league. Baltimore 6-3 ATS against Buffalo, 4-1 SU. Ravens 13-2 SU on the road. Buffalo 6-0 SU at home, 7-0 SU of late, 8-1 ATS. 2 things scare me: if it snows, Lamar has NEVER played a game in the snow. But it’s supposed to be snow showers with winds of 10-20 mph. Which definitely favors the run and takes something away from the Josh Allen passing attack. Would you be shocked the Ravens won? Nope. Is this going to be close? Yep. so let’s make this the focal point of our teaser.

Second leg of the teaser Ravens +8.5

Andy Reid does two things great: remain morbidly obese and crush teams off a bye. BUT KC hasn’t been doing their 1990’s Florida State Bobby Bowden impression and run shit up. Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS at home in that span and 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in that span. Since 2014, reigning Super Bowl champions are 4-1 ATS in their first playoff game the following season. I think Baker blew his load like TT Boy and Peter North joined forces with a thermonuclear geyser of jazz. By the by,  Baker Mayfield is 0-4 ATS in his career as more than a 7-point underdog. He is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Double-digit favorites are 6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2010. Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs (3-0 last season). Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in conference games this season. I think the Browns definitely lose this but laying 10 is absurd for all of the above reasons I’ve cited. Browns have been good of late SU, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 SU of late. Chiefs 13-2 at home, 1 of those losses is with their B squad in week 17. So it’s 7 point teaser time and I know some of you may say, “Why not take the Browns to +17, that’s a super sharp play?” It sure is and I won’t eat your lunch for it. But could you see the Chiefs coming out, off the bye, and sick and tired of hearing how they’re barely eeking games out. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs win by 20.

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Chiefs -3

History shows the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season” is overblown. In the Super Bowl era, teams that won the first two meetings are 14-8 outright in the third meeting, though they are just 10-11-1 ATS. New Orleans has covered the last four times it has been a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 1-4 outright and 2-3 ATS against teams that finished with winning records. Since 2015, the under is 21-8 in Tom Brady starts with a total in the 50s (15-5 since 2017). New Orleans is 7-1 ATS and outright when Michael Thomas plays this season.  Drew Brees is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Brady. Brees’ 5-2 record is the best among 17 quarterbacks to face Brady at least five times. Man, that’s a lot of data backing both teams. So I’m pivoting. Saints/TB have gone over 4/5 in NO, TB/NO over 5/7 of late, and Tampa goes over 15/20 vs NFC. Saints have gone under 7/10 but who have they played? Broncos (the no QB game), Carolina, ATL x2, Philly, Niners, Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs. Not many high powered offenses in there except the Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs. But the 7 pt teaser makes this an EASY pick

2nd leg of teaser Bucs over 45

Last bet is a ML parlay as the last 2 weeks I’ve hit those. GB/Saints/Chiefs. I think the Saints are the biggest question mark in that equation but let’s cross your fingers.

NFL playoffs wild card weekend ATS

4-1 last week to end the season on a winning and profitable note, 53-45 which translates to 54% winning bets. Nowhere near as good as last year (61%) or year before (62%) but we’re above break even and making money, that’s all you want to be. I REALLY like these picks this week so let’s go to the video tape.

I dare you to bet against the Bills right now. They blew out the Dolphins in a completely unnecessary game and the Fins have a great defense. Colts defense is like the Simpsons, used to be great but has fallen off a cliff. You know the last time the Bills didn’t cover the number? Before complete civil unrest? No, not that long. Kyler Murray throwing up that Hail Mary is the answer. Bills are 8-0 ATS of late and 5-0 SU home of late. Colts BARELY beat the Jags last week and they’re not playing well of late, 2-4 ATS. They’re 4-1 SU but 2-4 ATS against Buffalo. 48, 36, 56 are not the bra sizes of your favorite porn stars with H cups more more, those are the numbers Buffalo has put up in the last 3. They’re AVERAGING 34.5 ppg and I’m not standing in front of a moving train, I’m on that moving (money) train. Oh yeah, they’re beating teams by an average of 10 points. I would absolutely bet this -6 but I like another game that needs the number to come down so let’s make this an even easier cake walk (hopefully)

1st leg of teaser Bills -1

Tom Brady is like Howard Stern’s parents, they hate deviating from a routine and are in bed before people start eating dinner. Brady is 0-4 ATS during night games. But you think I’m going to lay my easily earned money on Washington when Taylor Heinicke took the MAJORITY of the 1st team reps in practice? And Riverboat Ron said they may rotate quarterbacks? Translation: Smith is REALLY hurt and we know his ATS splits of playing vs not are extremely lopsided. Do you trust either QB or their RBs against the #1 run defense in YPC? No. But we all know Brady HATES getting hit more so than other QBs. And damnit, if the Giants had their shot against them tonight (Fuck you Doug Peterson), I’d be loading up on the Giants, ML and spread, and under. But Washington has a great defense and it’s not going to be the Blue Angels aerial show we’ve seen. TB 4-1 SU and ATS of late but 5-0 SU on the road. Skins 5-2 ATS and SU which makes you think this is going to be closer than 8.5 and you’re right. And this is why I had to tease:

2nd leg of teaser, Bucs -1.5

Because of all the reasons above, I also like the under for a myriad of reasons. Bucs are 4/5 under in Wash of late. WFT, 5/5 of late, 5/7 under vs Wash overall. No QBs against a team that’s amazing against the run. But nothing better than a little cushion and you know where this is going…

1st leg of a 6.5 pt teaser TB under 51

Seattle Seahawks have become your friend that was an absolute blast before he was married, going out and on trips whenever you felt like it. But since he’s been married, he won’t leave the house unless it’s with her (and she wants him to still go out). Seattle scored on average 34 and gave up 30 on defense. But their new identity of running the ball and defense, they’ve gone under 7/8 of late and 12/16 against the Rams. You also expect us to trust a rookie QB making his 2nd start, 1st in playoffs? Nope. And we know the Rams #1 overall defense (1 in scoring, 1 in YPP) plays close games as well, 4/6 under on the road and 11/13 of late, WOW. And here’s the final nail in that coffin: both times these 2 teams have played saw combined scores of 39 and 29, well below the number you have now, 42.5 But you already know what yours truly is about to say…

2nd leg of 6.5 pt teaser Rams under 49

This next line makes as much sense as storming the Capitol without a mask to conceal your identity. Seriously, if I were to do so, I’d walk in there like Snake Eyes from GI Joe, covering from head to toe with zero skin showing. And then I’d fight Storm Shadow in the chambers to the death while saying nothing because I’m staying in character. The Ravens are a 3 or 3.5 pt favorite IN Tennessee. Why? Because they won their last 5 games, most by considerable margin? Great, let’s look at those teams. Oh yeah, FOUR OF THE FIVE were below .500. You know what the Ravens record was SU against teams now in the playoffs? 4-4. And 1 of those wins was against the WFT who made it in by sucking the least. NO ONE has stopped Derrick Henry and the Baltimore defense isn’t stopping him unless it’s the entire cast of the Wire and 2000 Ravens. Yes, we know the Titans defense is putrid. But what does Baltimore do best? Run the ball. What can’t Lamar Jackson do? Throw the ball well. Bad 6-0 ATS of late and 12-5-1 in Tennessee. But that was pre-Tannehill. And who won their head-head matchup this year. Tenn. Titans are 5-2 SU of late and Lamar still has the same number of wins as Ken Jeong has funny standup specials. Would ANY of you be surprised if the Ravens go tits up again? I wouldn’t. Then again, I LOVE giving myself insurance and did so for another game so guess what I did…

1st leg of 7 pt teaser Titans +10

This next handicap is going to be quick and painless, unlike your mother’s blow jobs. Mitch Trubisky seemed to steal the souls of 5 runaway teens and got a hell of a deal from the devil to be playing the way he has of late. Bears are 2-4 ATS against the Saints, 0-6 ATS, 1-5 SU in NO. Saints 7-1-1 ATS of late, 5-1 SU at home, 11-2 SU. The Bears haven’t played a defense above 13th ranked DVOA and take a guess what number the Saints are? 2. Bears smoked 3 teams of late: Minn, Jax, and Houston. All 3 teams with defenses that looked like prolapsed anuses. Or is it anus-i for the plural? Brees at home in January of late, not good. Snakebitten 2 times in 3 years by Minnesota. This is it for Brees, he’s out next year. Now he FINALLY has a healthy Michael Thomas and Kamara should be back too. This is the real reason of taking that 7 point teaser so I could…

2nd leg of 7 pt teaser Saints 2.5

Bonus pick: I threw down a ML parlay: Bucs, Bills, and Saints

Week 16 NFL Picks ATS

58-42 for the year, 58%.  Ya hear me?  I HEAR YA!
Lock of the week:
Dallas got smoked by the Colts (one of my top bets last week, thank you). Now they’re home against TB who are 5-9-2 ATS.  They’re 2-4 ATS in Dallas and 1-10 SU in Dallas.  Dallas 5-1 ATS of late, 4-1 ATS at home.  If I’m using SU facts, you know what that means.  Yep, it’s teaser time.  
I teased Dallas down to -1 which makes them a virtual pick ’em.
Second half of the teaser involves the wounded ducks up in Foxboro.  The Pats definitely don’t look themselves as Brady really showed his age and a few mental lapses in Pittsburgh last week.  Now they’re home in a must win against the Bills.  When was the last time the Pats blew anyone out?  9/30 against the Dolphins, 38-7.  They’ve won by no more than 2 TDs in their other games.  No Josh Gordon, that’s a problem.  Gronk is definitely running around like Forest Gump with leg braces. Josh Allen looks the opposite as the Pats give up 5 YPC.  Pats are 2-3-1 at home against the Bills, too big of a number and the Pats D can get backdoored easily.
I’m teasing the Bills up to +19, I just don’t see the Pats blowing them out.  
Chargers are “home” after a 10 day layoff and get the Ravens who are fighting like hell for a playoff spot.  The Bal D has done a bang up job, only allowing 58% of completed passes and 3.6% passes into TD.  With Lamar Jackson as QB, they average 36 min TOP.  What does that mean?  A lot of clock run off.  Ravens have faced some AWFUL run defenses which gave them the edge to control clock, 5 out of the 6 in the league.  Short week for the Ravens as well.  Bal have gone under 8/12 and 4/6 on the road.  Chargers have gone under 4/5 at home.  
Chargers under 43.5
Dalvin Cook blew up last week like I said he would.  And now he gets a chance to run against the diarrhea defense of the Lions.  Minnesota under 5/7 of late, 4/5 vs Detroit.  Did anyone see Matt Stafford light it up last week?  Said by NO ONE this season.  They’re home but that doesn’t give a tickle in the banana hammock.  Lions are 5/6 under at home, 5/5 of late.  
Vikings under 42.5
Goff stinks on the road, 7 road games he has 7 TDs and 7 passes.  Cardinals have allowed 6th fewest points to RBs.  Gurley is banged up but we all know the way to take out the Cardinals is on the ground.  What does that mean?  Running=clock killing.  Do you see the Cardinals scoring?  I don’t.  They have scored 21 points ONCE in 5 games, 20 points 2 in two.  The last 2 weeks, they’ve combined for 17 points.  Against the Lions and Falcons.  I’ll let that sink in.  Cardinals are 7/9 under at home as well.  The Rams are an under machine of late, 4/5. 4/6 playing Arizona.  
Arizona under 44.5
Don’t look now but the Niners have won 2 straight.  They have the Bears coming to town after a ton of partying since they’ve locked up division.  I think even though the Bears still need the game for the #2 seed, this is still a trap game.  Bears offense on the road, #29. Niners defense at home #13.   Bears are 5-13 ATS vs SF, 1-8 in SF.  Niners are 4-2 ATS playing the Bears, 8-1 ATS and SU vs the Bears.  Here’s another case of the number being right.
Niners +4
Giants just got shutout at home, Indy just pitched a shutout against Dallas.  Giants will bounce back and 10 points is just too many.  Giants are ATS undefeated on the road. 5-0, and 4-1-1 of late ATS.
Giants +10
I’m also considering Arizona +14.5