Tag: Joe flacco

Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

Did you get your Gutting the Sacred Cow live show tickets yet? Don’t worry, we still have SOME left, here’s the link to do so: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gutting-the-sacred-cow-live-show-tickets-128202821089?fbclid=IwAR2CxY-xi0y7UHXGH3OiPr8VouVYx90SuinF0Q8pcXpOMvrrjMTBsMqYpm8

3-2-1 last week so back in the W column. Pushed the Chargers teaser (wish I got 8.5 instead of 8), lost the Ravens teaser (they’re not as good as we thought they were) and also lost the Bears on MNF (Cousins snaps his 0-9 skid against an anemic Bears offense). Won the other 2 teasers and the Rams so bravo for me. Which puts me at 32-27-2 for the year, 54% overall. Still making money

Detroit Lions are lot like me in my early 20’s. I would be chatting up a lady at a bar and have her on the line. And a good chunk of the time, I would say something that would inevitably fuck up the situation and keep me from getting laid. And that’s the Lions, they’ll have 1st half leads and blow them late as their defense is worse than living in Detroit. Today, they are facing PJ Walker and they’re still likely down two OL (both doubtful). I’m gambling that Stafford plays (thumb) and all signs point to yes. No Golladay and no Swift, I know. But I think Stafford guides them to a first half lead and even if it’s tied, I’ll push.

Det 1H Pick em. It jumped to -1.5 but I locked in yesterday however I would still lay the 1.5

I don’t count player props in my W/L record (although I did hit Russ Wilson over rushing yds monday night!) but here’s one for you that jumped out me. GB defense allows 7 yds per target to RB. Nyheim Hines had a great game last week against a porous Tenn D so why not expect the same this week? Low number but higher vig (-120)

Hines over 27.5 yds

Titans are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when getting 4 or more. What did the Ravens show me in that monsoon monday night? They’re not as good as we think? And the Titans got their doors blown off Thursday night against the Colts. The worst secret is that the Ravens can’t come from behind at all. Titans have 3 extra days to prep; plus the Ravens play Thanksgiving night. You don’t think they aren’t looking ahead to facing Pittsburgh that night? I do. Tenn 3-7 ATS of late but 9-4 SU. They are 1-4 ATS on the road. But just like boobs, more is better. So let’s go from 6.5 to 12.5 and watch the Titans keep this REALLY close, maybe even catch the Ravens in a trap game.

First half of the teaser, Tenn +12.5

As much as I loathe the Eagles (had the Giants in a teaser last week, didn’t need the points!), they’ve got to win today to stay competitive in the bargain bin of mediocrity known as the NFC east. Good news is that Philly is 5-0 SU against Cle. Bad news is Philly is 3-7 ATS of late and 1-4 ATS. Good news is Browns are 1-4 ATS of late and 3-6 ATS for the season. Also, 2-10 SU against NFC east. Bad news is Browns are 6-2 SU and 8-2 SU at home. A perfect world for me would be Philly losing but covering. Most importantly, Miles Garrett is out for the Browns which gives the 25 million dollar bust known as Carson Wentz some time to let receivers run their routes. Plus, Philly does have a pass rush and Mayfield averaging 5.8 yds per attempt. Give me a 20-16 Browns W…

Second half of teaser Philly +8.5

Ravens under 7/10, 10/13 under vs Tenn, 4/5 at home, 7/7 home against Tenn. Again, the Ravens have a game in 3 days, they’re not going to go crazy expending all of their energy. Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so expect a lot of running.

Tenn under 50.5

It’s the Taysom Hill spectacular! You know, the guy that is now eligible in some of your fantasy leagues as a TE that sent fantasy owners screaming to their commissioner? Who know how long this experiment lasts but I only care for 1 game. Falcons off a bye and believe it or not; they’re playing hard for Raheem Morris. Falcons 7-2 ATS of late, 7-3 SU in last 10 against NFC south. 1-4 ATS against NO but that’s against Brees. I have no idea what to expect but I sure as shit expect Matt Ryan to air out it and keep it close against a QB who spends his off season knocking on your doors at 7am on a Saturday; asking if you’d like have a copy of the Watchtower. So let’s REALLY give ourselves a cushion in case that Falcons defense makes like Eugene Robinson in the superbowl and gets busted for soliciting prostitutes that turn out to be a cop.

1st half of teaser is Falcons +10.5

We all know Andy Reid is as much of a lock after a bye as much as your moms are after 3 appletini’s at a TGI Friday’s happy hour. Now add how the Raiders did a victory lap on them after they won in KC the first go around. Finally, a pinch of Maholmes telling the media that they’re more than ready (paraphrase). The Chiefs are going to decimate them: Chiefs are 15-3 ATS and 17-1 SU of late. 10-5 ATS against Vegas and 5-1 SU. 6-0 on the road and 4-1 SU in Vegas. Please. And Vegas a much better road team than home, 2-5 ATS at home. But I need another team to tease so I’ll make this game less than a FG.

2nd half of teaser is KC -1 but I’d tease ANY number down to below a TD. It’s going to be a romp, 1995 Florida State Bobby Bowden style.

Already hit a the first half of my next teaser, AZ +9, on Thursday night. I will say that the Seattle safety sent shivers up my butthole which cut it to 4. Thank Christ Seattle just kicked a FG to win by 7.

I have no idea how GB is getting points. Yes, they didn’t cover against Jax and it was close for awhile. GB 6-3 ATS of late, 13-3 SU. GB also 4-1 ATS on the road and I get Rodgers in a dome? I don’t see Rivers able to throw the ball that well; even against a weak GB defense but they are getting Jaire Alexander back in the secondary. Yes, Indy is 4-0-1 SU home against GB but those are mostly if not all of Andrew Luck’s years. Now let’s make things even more interesting because I have to fill another teaser and give me 6 points? HIGHLY doubt GB loses, let alone by more than a TD

Second half of the teaser GB +7.5

If there’s one team that can fuck up a cup of coffee (Name that film…Casino!), it’s the Chargers. They’ve been snakebitten left and right and Justin Herbert has 1 win this year? Christ. They got hosed against the Raiders. But holy hell, if they can’t take down the worst team in the last 10-15 years, Anthony Lynn should be forced to watch Napoleon Dynamite and 2001 Space Odyssey (2 films we did on Gutting the Sacred Cow podcast!) back to back for eternity. Joe Flacco is starting and if you recall, he gave the Pats a scare but of course, the Jets give up 10 points in the final 5 minutes and lose. But the Jets also are without the INT leader Pierre Desir and Brian Poole. I just see the Chargers kicking their dicks in despite being 1-7 SU of late, 1-5 SU at home, and 2-4 ATS at home against the Jets (Phil Rivers years) Don’t worry, the Jets don’t have much going for them, 2-7 ATS of late and 1-6 ATS on the road. But again, why not make it under a TD so you can’t get backdoored.

First half of the teaser: Chargers -3.5

I think this last pick is the easiest of them all. Remember gambling rule #2: always bet against Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton. Yes, Dallas just came off a bye but remember, they’re playing on Thanksgiving against their hated rival, the Redskins. Would you be surprised if they just get to Minnesota and went through the motions to prep against a team they are in the middle of a division race for? Let’s also acknowledge Kirk Cousins BEST spot is when he’s at home for a 1pm start, he’s ~65% ATS. Dallas is on their THIRD center this week; I don’t care if it’s Dalton, Aikman, Quincy Carter behind center, that’s gonna screw them up. And if you haven’t been paying attention; Minnesota has quietly been a covering machine, 6-1 ATS of late and 4-2 SU. They’re 7-0 ATS home against Dallas (Dak’s years to boot!). Dallas 1-8 ATS of late, 1-6 SU, 0-6 ATS on the road. These numbers inspire less confidence than me sitting down to watch a Jack Black/Seth Rogen/Ben Stiller movie. I have to finish up a teaser so let’s make this virtually foolproof.

Second half of teaser: Vikings -1

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Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

4-3 last week as GB smoked that over to put me above .500 for the week.  Let’s give a shoutout to that Jacksonville coach, fuckwad Doug Marrone, as he decided erase all good karma by throwing the the ball deep in Jax territory with little time left on the clock in the 4th quarter in a tied game.  Common sense would have had him run out the clock so they can get to OT.  Jacksonville had a nice comeback, tying it up from down 13 and then watched my money disappear like Rob Schneider’s career as Phil Dawson kicked a 57 yd fg to seal it for the Cardinals.  Indy lost by .5 as they gave up a late TD and blew a decent lead.  However, the Pats cruised to the over as the aforementioned GB/Pitt over.  The Niners hung tight for awhile but Russell Wilson poured it on late.  The Bengals did smoke the Browns like I foresaw as well.  Do I go back to the well with the Jags?  Read on and find out.  BTW, I took the Skins on Thursday night and Kirk Cousins went Kirk Cameron on me.  Praying for something good to happen and it never did.  Now THAT’S how you write a joke.  So I’m 0-1 to start the week.  Also, I put down money on the Saints to win the NFC championship at 6-1 odds.  Wish me luck.

Short answer, yep.  And as sad as this is going to sound, I have Blake Bortles going for me to determine if I get a first round bye in fantasy football.  You’re probably asking yourself if I’m throwing the game so I don’t get the bye by starting Bortles and I would too if the shoe was on the other foot.  Problem is, I drafted Eli Manning very late and then dropped him for Alex Smith who played out of his mind for nearly 2 months.  Then Alex Smith started looking like Alex Trebek for too long.  My buddy snaked Case Keenum off the wire so I was left with Bortles or Gabbert.  So cross your fingers that Bortles eviscerates the Indy defense which resembles Jenna Jameson’s butthole.  Let’s cross your toes and tongue that Marquis Lee and Leonard Fournette also have good days for your favorite sports handicapper.  The Jags are 5-0 ATS vs Indy and that should be all you need to know.  Ok, another nugget.  Indy is 2-4 ATS on the road.  The Jags losing in such an ugly fashion should be the perfect time to take them in the bounce back to put them smack in the middle of the division race.  

Take the Jags -9.5

What can you say about the Patriots that hasn’t been said, especially the cheating and shitty fans elements?  But give the White Devil his due, Bellichek is a covering machine and this week, those rapscallions are in Buffalo which is almost another home game for them.  Pats are recently 5-0 ATS, 7-1 on the road, and 4-1 in Buff.  Buffalo recently 2-4-1, 2-4-1 vs the Pats, and 2-10-1 home vs NE.  In the last month, Buffalo has put up over 20 2x but both when they were getting blown out in garbage time.  Buffalo has no WR and the Pats D has improved of late.  I don’t see much going for the Bills except a lot of, “wait till next decade” talk.

Take the Pats -9

Minnesota has been on one hell of a cinderella ride this year, despite losing their rookie RB, Dalvin Cook, and riding the coattails of a QB named Case.  Seriously, who names their kid, Case?  I hope his parents finished the joke and named his brother, Closed.  Wacka, wacka, wacka.  The Vikes had 10 days off after dismantling the Lions to prep for the Falcons who have had a mild resurgence.  I think that the Vikings being 15-8 on the road and Atlanta 1-3-1 vs Minny should be good enough reasons to take the Purple team this week.  I also like the over and the numbers back it up: Minn is 4/5 hitting the overs and hit 5/7 of them on the road.  Falcons have put up 30+ 3 times this year but don’t expect them to replicate that against a solid Vikes D.  

Take the Vikings +3 and the over 47

The Lions were smoked last week and now they head to Baltimore, who couldn’t cover against the hapless Texans.  Matt Stafford looked like he ate John Madden before the game on Thanksgiving so I think they play better.  Baltimore doesn’t inspire confidence at home, as they’re 2-4 ATS.  And Detroit of late is 2-4-1 ATS.  But I tell you what jumps out at me, the over.  Detroit has been hot with the over of late, 6/7 and 4/6 vs Bal.  The Ravens have recently hit the over 5/7.  So let’s see if backwards hat Matt Stafford can put up enough to hit and Joe Flacco puts up his usual pick 6 so we can hit…

The over 43.5

The lock of the week was easier than all of your mothers this week.  Yep, 41 years old and not afraid to drop a, “your mother” joke in there.  This isn’t the NY Times, folks.  The Saints lost a tough one in LA last week and now they’re back to home, sweet home.  When the Saints are home and have a winning record, they’re 17-3-1 out of their last 21.  Holy.  Christ.  Saints are 4-0-1 vs Carolina while the Panthers are 2-4 in NO.  Saints are recently 6-3 ATS and now after a loss?  Yeah, they’re fired up and playing Carolina who A) got lucky that the Jets went FULL Jets and gave up a late lead AGAIN.  Oh yeah, Carolina backdoored the cover with a late FG.  Olsen is banged up again and Cam didn’t play well against the Jets.  I just see the #Pangeabirthmarkface demolishing the Panthers at home and really no other way around it.  I kind of like the over but I don’t know if Carolina will put up their end to cover.  Although the last 2 times these teams played in NO, they combined for 79 points BOTH times.  

Love the Saints -5 and maybe the over 48.  

I kind of like:

The Jets to bounce back +3.  KC had a tough time in Giants Stadium last week and the Jets play well as home dogs.

LAC -13 getting revenge for the Browns beating them last year.

Rams -7 in AZ.  Do you think Blaine Gabbert keeps this up, even though they’re home again?  I doubt it.

Niners +3 who are 4-2 on the road while the Bears are 0-4 ATS at home as favorites.

Detroit +3 who has had 10 days to prep against a team who has played nothing but backup QBs in their last stretch.  Bal 2-4 ATS at home as well.

TB over 45.  Jameis Winston is back so I’m laying off this.  The line opened GB +2 but the pros jumped on that immediately and now is GB -2.5

 

 

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Week NAWWWNE NFL picks

Well kids, last week is what I call the law of averages just pulling your pants down and showing you who is still boss.  3-7 last week, udda disasta, ok?  Mark Ingram fumbling twice deep in Bears territory prevented me from covering.  Travis Benjamin on the Chargers catches a kickoff at the 15 or so and then this dickhead runs backwards and to the left.  Want to guess what happens next?  A goddamn safety, lost by .5 a point.  The Browns scored more than I thought they would so that under was busted but at least the Vikings covered.  Seattle won a last minute TD but didn’t cover.  I grabbed the Jets under because it was a monsoon and Atlanta on the road is awful.  You guessed it, scoring bonanza in the middle of what seemed like a hurricane.  It doesn’t help when ATL fumbles deep in their own zone twice as the Jets did once.  

Detroit had 1st and goal 3 different times and only came away with 3 points.  They kick another FG and I cover.  I did take Dallas who easily handled the Redskins and Cincy hit the over with the Colts.  As my old man, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.  I didn’t pull the trigger on KC nor the over as I got gun shy and both would’ve won.  See what a bad weekend does to you?  And with the beating I took last week, it felt like I held a grenade for too long between my buttcheeks.  

If you took the Jets for the season under 3.5, I feel extremely bad for you because that money line was ridiculously high.  But I don’t feel bad for me as I bet the Jets +3 the other night and for once, the secondary football team of NY doesn’t disappoint me.  Starting off the week 1-0 so let’s get to the picks:

I’m all in on Drew Brees and his Pangea sized facial birthmark this week.  Coach Sean Payton chewed out Ingram on the sidelines for doing his impression of “early years Tiki Barber” and you can bet your ass it’s not happening again this week.  The Bucs defense is trash, giving up 5.8 yards per play.  And I don’t think Winston’s shoulder is up to snuff yet.  The Saints are 8th in passing yds and 8th in passing yards on defense.  The only way the Bucs have the shot is running the ball against a bad Saints run defense.  No Brent Grimes for the Bucs this week and what do the Saints do well?  Air it out.  Quick stats for you: Saints are 4-1 ATS, 4-2 home against TB.  TB 0-4-1 as well as 1-3-1 on the road.  I see Brees and the boys winning by at least a touchdown.

I’m demanding that the Saints get my lost money buck and cover -7

I got stabbed by the Ravens like I was in an SUV with Ray Lewis when I took the Dolphins last Thursday.  Matt Moore is like that girl who stands far away in a dark corner in the bar and after a few cocktails, you swear she looks like Heather Graham.  But when you commit on the approach and get closer, you see it’s really Billy Graham.  Yep, a Billy Graham reference in the picks column.  And I’m not even going to google and let you know if he’s alive or not.  Baltimore goes into Tennessee with the 30th ranked run defense against the 8th ranked run attack.  Flacco (has he regressed big time or what? He looks like someone playing Madden for the first time) is coming off a concussion and will play.  Flacco has a 6:8 TD ratio, yuck.  He’s my hands down winner for best on the field impression of Colin Kaepernick.   Titans are off the bye which gave Mariota and Murray’s hamstrings time to heal.  Titans are 6-1 ATS at home, 5-2 ATS home against Bal.  Bal is 2-4 ATS and 3-8 ATS on the road.  

Take the Titans -3.5

My daughter has recently had awful diarrhea.  I’m talking mustard yellow with a smell that even makes the Bronx smell like a tropical rainforest.  Why am I sharing this with you?  Because I want you to appreciate how I had to live through her taking off her poopy diaper in her bed.  And it got all over the place.  All. Over. The. Place.  And that’s what this week feels like watching some of these games; diarrhea all over the place.  Mia/Oak, AZ/SF, Indy/Hou.  So what’s one to do when you have a bunch of these games?  Take the one game that despite its stench, know exactly where it’s going.  And that’s Oakland and Miami.  Both teams are an offensive mess.  Oakland was supposed to be the king of the AFC west and quite frankly, discounting the KC game, they look like the Jackson Pollack painting my daughter left behind.  And we all saw Miami play like the mob kidnapped their family.  Oakland has gone under their last 6/8 and 6/9 when playing in Miami.  Mia has gone under in their last 6/8 as well.  This one has 21-17 written all over it.

Take the under 44

Denver has made a QB change…to Brock Osweiller.  HAHAHAHAHA (Wiping tears from my eyes)  Yeah, that will fix things.  I know Denver has a solid D and Philly is prime for a letdown game.  If this game was in Denver, I’d be a bit leery.  Denver 1-4 ATS and 0-5 on the road.  Philly 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.  But to quote Ferris Bueller: “A) You can never go too far.  B) If I’m gonna get busted, it’s not going to be by a guy like THAT.”  Bet on Brock Osweiller, that’s rich.  My abs STILL hurt from laughing that hard.  

Take the Eagles -7.5

Green Bay is off the bye and the Lions come into town for Hundley part 2.  You’re going to think I’m going to make a case for Detroit on the rebound?  Nope, I’m done trusting Detroit for awhile.  GB on the bye IMMEASURABLY helps Hundley as they probably simplified the playbook for him and they game planned for him for the last 2 weeks.  And GB is getting points?  At home?  Detroit is 1-4 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the road.  Det 1-4 playing GB and 1-5 ATS in GB.  GB a resounding 24-1 SU at home vs Detroit.  And I’m getting points?  

Yeah, GB +2.5

And now it’s time for the lock of the week.  Usually, when I give picks I have stats supporting my argument.  But this week, I’m going against the history.  The Rams have lost 7 straight against the Giants, 0-5 ATS.  Rams are 2-4 on the road this year but this is more of an anti-Giants pick.  In fact, it’s a dead nuts against pick on the Giants.  No Jackrabbit Jenkins as he’s suspended indefinitely.  Sources say McAdoo has lost the locker room.  Maybe he should’ve made a map where it is.  Ba-dum, ching! (Puts gun to head and pulls the trigger) Both teams are off the bye which means fresh legs but not anyone noteworthy on the Giants offense except for Ingram and Sheppard.  And whoops, Rams are the 2nd best defense against the TE so Ingram will get taken care of.  Rams are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and I see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley.  I’d rather sit on a casting couch with Kevin Spacey than put money on my NY Giants this season.  

Rams in an easy one, -4.5

 

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Week 7 NFL Picks

The NFL is by far the hardest league to consistently pick winners.  The best handicappers are 55% and your boy is currently 54% for the year.  Who the fuck would’ve thought Denver would’ve lost OUTRIGHT to the Giants?  That screwed a ZILLION people (hand in the air) in their suicide pools.  And who would’ve even contemplated the Falcons would lost OUTRIGHT  to the Dolphins.  At home.  After a bye?  Jesus H Christ, this gets zany.  Oh wait, let’s talk about this past Thursday’s Oak/KC game?  Chiefs laying 3 but the Raiders drive the field late.  Raiders on the 1 and then get called for pass interference, back em up 10 more yards.  Time for just one more play and what happens next is just stupid: Carr throws incomplete but hold on, defensive holding.  Can’t end the game on a defensive penalty so here we go again.  Another incomplete pass but deja vu inserts itself with ANOTHER KC defensive holding penalty.  Carr gets one last shot at redemption and the third time is the charm as he finds Crabtree for the TD.  Point after is good, Oakland wins by 1.  If you had KC (I had the under, that shit was toast by the middle of the 3rd quarter), you developed an ulcer.  If you had the Raiders, you must have been balls deep in a leprechaun while Kate Upton motorboated you at the same time.  And if you plan on motor boating Kate, do it soon as she’s going to hit the wall in about 3-5 years.  She has Anna Nicole Smith part 2 written all over her.

3-3 last week so a push for the week sans the vigs.  As I mentioned, I took the Oak under and lost so it puts me at 0-1 this week.  Let’s right this ship with some winners.

Can you make an argument how the Colts can win or cover 3 against the Jags.  Me neither and that’s why I really like Jacksonville in Indy this week. Fournette hasn’t practiced all week but they’re saying he still may go.  And even if he doesn’t, I’m still confident that D can shut down the Dolts.  Ivory is very capable of gashing that awful defense.  Some numbers to back up my statement, sure.  Jax is 6-3 ATS in their last 9, 5-1 on the road, and 4-1 ATS vs Indy.  Sound good?  I think so too.

I like the Jaguars -3

Deshone Kizer is back behind center.  I think Cleveland has had more quarterbacks in the last 20 years than Jenna Jameson has taken dicks on camera.  Cleveland has put up over 20 ONE time this year.  Tennessee has put up over 20 3/6 times this year.  Cleveland has a pretty good defense.  Can you see this game 24-21?  Best case scenario, which is great because the under is 46.  And let’s end this handicap with one last statement.  Cleveland has gone under at home the last 5/5.  Good enough for me…

To take the under 46

One of the bets I didn’t put in that I should have was taking the Bears getting 6 against the dumpster fire Ravens.  Those same Ravens now travel to Minnesota who admittedly are a bit banged up on WR.  Diggs is out and Michael Floyd left early in last week’s game. But the Vikings have a rock solid D and (Mike Francesa voice), “Let’s be honest, ok?  I’d ratha see the new Madea Halloween movie than trust Joe Flacco on the road, ok?  Here’s da Mink Man, back afta dis.”  Balt 3-7 ATS out of their last 10 and Minn 4-1 ATS at home.  Sometimes the best bets are the ones that require the least amount of thought.

Take the Vikings -5.5

Green Bay plays at home against the Saints who have been lighting it up when it comes to the over, home or away.  GB has also been a lock for the over at home.  But let’s bring up 3 facts:  The Saints have an improved (could it have gotten worse?) defense.  I mean, we’re still used to see a Saints defense getting exposed like a freshman sorority girl, begging for beads on Bourbon Street.  They gave up 38 last week but 2 of which were a pick or ST TD.  The previous week, they held the Panthers to 13.  But 2 weeks before, they shut out Miami (NBD, I get it).  Next which is the obvious, no Aaron Rodgers. And finally, the forecast calls for a good amount of rain leading into game time.  Is Brett Hundley going to put points up?  In the rain?  Against an average defense?  He did throw 3 in Minn last week.  I’m going to monitor this one solely based on the weather and IF the rain does indeed come through, I’m taking.

GB under 47

I like mixing up routines, vacation spots, and when I was single, women.  But now the few constants I love are steak, teams that stick to their trends, and winning free money from said trends.  That being said, let’s investigate another routine which I exploited a couple of weeks ago with the Jags.  The Rams have been to London several times already.  They stayed in Florida this week to prep for their trip across the pond.  They had some great fluky TDs against the Jags last week (one of my winners) and now they’re 3.5 point favorites against the Cardinals.  Cards just blew the doors off of an awful Bucs D and Jameis Winston’s shoulder.  They brought in the smartest (on paper) QB, Fitzpatrick, who is everyone’s favorite guy to bet against and he actually cut the lead down with the help of a pick 6.  But the Bucs lost (one of my losers) so the Cards got off the schneid.  I barely trust Carson Palmer and if you think I trust him when his body clock is 8 hours off schedule, you’re insane.  This game gets ugly, like the Brits’ smiles and food creations.

Take the Rams -3.5

AFC Central matchup this week, Bengals vs Steelers.  Or as I call it, two towns of women that resemble a grilled cheese sandwich with Rosie O Donnell’s face.  Bengals off the bye and the Steelers are home after stealing one in Kansas City with an amazing circus TD catch and run for Antonio Brown.  The line is MUCH too high for a division game, as these games are usually decided by a FG.  The history is against Cincy in Pitt but 5.5 is just too much; especially since the Bengals have gotten their shit together recently offensively as well as always having a decent D.  And I’m also quite inclined to take the under as Cincy/Pitt have been so 7/8 last times in Pitt.  Cincy also has been under 5/6 on the road.  But I’m waiting to see till tomorrow (this article was written on Saturday night) how that line moves.  However, I’ve already locked in…

Cincy +5.5

Here are a few games that I’m debating about taking tomorrow but seeing how the line moves:

Pitt under, SF, Denver, Pats and over, 

 

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NFL picks Week 1

I love the summer, absolutely adore it.  Nothing more sad than seeing that first leaf change to a bright yellow.  Having that first chilling evening or morning.  Seeing the sun set by 8pm.  A shitty stream of films in the theater.  But, there’s just one redeeming thing about the fall.  Football is back.  Which means I go back to Vegas for the week 1 games and as you’re reading this, I’m there now.  And I’m probably drunk, like 85% of the time.  I have a couple of gigs when I’m out there, at the Sapphire club and Southpointe Casino so if you’re in town, come check out my bits.  

But before I get into them, I’d be remiss if I didn’t promote that my brainchild, “Comics Watching Comics,” is now up on Amazon Video!  Go binge Season 1 and tell me what you think!  Also, Comics Watching Comics T shirts are available for $20 which includes shipping.  Contact me on how to get your S-XL shirt

Here are the picks for week 1:

I’m writing this article as the Chiefs/Pats game is going on.  I just can’t see how the Pats are going to open the season, at home, raising the Super Bowl banner (great job of choking, you piece of shit Falcons.  Although I did hit the over, thank you!) and NOT cover the spread.  Pats are 8/8 ATS extending from last year and KC is 2-4 ATS in NE.  They blew an EARLY chance to go up at LEAST 10-0 and even 14-0 but a bad play call from Bellichek on 4th and 1 squashed that notion.  But the Chiefs just took a big dump on the Pats and winning outright.  So I just lost:

The Patriots -9

The Eagles went out and spent big money to have arguably the second best trio of WRs in the NFL.  See NY Giants trio, #1.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  And charm school for their fans.  That accent and their manners would make Mr. Belvedere turn beet red.  You know who else went out and spent a lot of money on a top WR?  Washington with Terelle Pryor.  And for now, they have a healthy Jordan Reed and very solid Jameson Crowder.  You know what they didn’t spend money on?  Defense.  Washington has a good running game to compliment their aerial attack.  This game is going to be a scoring bonanza.  Washington hit the over at home 8/10.  When both teams played each other in the last 3, 3 times they hit the over.  Good enough for me

Philly over 48

I believe in sports karma, especially when there’s a natural disaster.  Bet the farm on a team who the nation rallies for, especially when they’re home.  And when said team is playing against Blake Bortles, well even Blake Bortle’s parents won’t be able to convince me that their little boy is going to go in Houston and bust that spread.  Here is a nice stat going back to last year: Houston is 8-2-1 against division opponents.  Did I mention it’s Blake Bortles on the road?  Thought so.

Lock of the week is Hou -5.5

Cincinnati has a solid defense.  Joe Flacco was banged up all preseason and has a handful of practices under his belt.  Their defense is putrid.  Cincy has a nice stable of RBs and of course, AJ Green.  This is more of an anti-Ravens pick.  Bengals are 7-2-1 in Sept and fun fact, Cincy has hit the under in their last 4 in a row.  Ravens also hit the under 4/5 in their division.  

Cincy -3 and maybe under 42 as a bonus

I already locked in my Giants the second Elliot was suspended because I was afraid the line would drop.  Would you believe that son of a bitch is going to play week 1 and the line actually dropped?  Odell Beckham Jr is still a game time decision.  I think the Giants D is too much for them yet again.  They stopped Elliot and Dez cold in their tracks the last 2 times they played and if they were to lose, I don’t think they’re going to lose by more than 3.  And history backs that up as the Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5.  Good thing I locked in at 3.5

Giants +3.5

Tennessee is everyone’s early darling and I’m all in on Mariota and Murray in 2 leagues.  Oakland could’ve made a deep run but Carr snapped his leg late last season.  I like Tennessee but the numbers for Oakland on the road back them up more.  But you know what I like in this game?  Points.  Neither defense sends shivers up my butthole.  Raiders 8/11 with the over.

Raiders over 50

The daytime Emmy awards should also cover sports.  Because whoever are the announcers are for the Rams/Colts game will put on the best performance of the year when you hear, “RAMS…COLTS! NEXT ON FOX!”  Andrew Luck is out.  Frank Gore is as old as Woody Allan.  Their defense is gonna get washed over like a Puerto Rico during Hurricane Irma.  But not this Sunday because new coach or not, the Rams aren’t doing much.  And we know the Colts don’t have much going on.  So this is an easy one.

Rams under 42

Lastly, I just think Phil Rivers and the San Diego, whoops.  Los Angeles…SUPER CHARGERS.  Does’t have that same ring, does it?  Well blame yourselves, San Diego fans.  I get it, the weather is great.  The women are hot.  So much to do.  But shit, it’s only 8 home games a year to support your team.  Let’s look at some numbers: SD 10-4 ATS on the road.  Broncos are 3-8-1 home against SD.  And oh yeah, Trevor Simian is the Den QB. And if he goes down, who’s up next?  Brock Osweiller who’s making a kajillion dollars to sit the bench.  The last time I saw a heist that big, Henry Hill was listening to 1010 WINS in the shower, having a laugh.  

Gimme the Chargers +3.5

I kinda like Pitt -8, the Vikings and the under 48 as well on sunday night but don’t know if I’m going to bet them.  Just some food for thought.

 

 

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NFL Week 7 picks ATS

The hot streak continues!  Last week, your buddy and guru went 3-1-1 with his picks so hope you loaded up.  Full disclosure:  I took the Bears +7.5 on thursday night and Brian Hoyer breaking his arm fucked me but good.  3 straight winning weeks so let’s continue this freeeeee money train.

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This morning, I took the Giants under 45.5 in London.  Case Keenum did he job by handing the game on a silver platter to the Giants by throwing 4 picks.  So this puts me up 1-1 going into the 1pm games

As my friend Paul said 2 weeks ago and I’m sticking to it, “I’ll stop betting Minnesota when a team can score more than 14 against them.”  Eagles off a bad loss and home for this one.  Carson Wentz is slowly being figured out by the league and let’s not also forget the revenge factor for Sam Bradford.  He was traded before the season when Bridgewater went down and was a malcontent in Philly.  Now, he’s risen like a Phoenix from the ashes and been nothing but consistent.  Revenge factor + off a bye week=

I’m taking the Vikings -3

The Jets are trash.  Tomorrow’s newsboy sales pitch: “Extra, extra, mouth breathers from Queens jumping off the Whitestone bridge.”  Jets are -69 in scoring differential.  Forte has been a non-factor since week 2.  That secondary has been flambeed, scorched, and stepped on.  No Decker and Geno Smith is now the starting QB.  Yuck.  Yes, Joe Flacco is a little nicked up but I’m getting 2 points against Geno Smith??  Yes, please!

I’m taking Bal +2

Remember gambling rule 1: Don’t be a hero, just win $.  This has been a tough week for picks which is why I’m only taking 4 games.  I debated about Oak +2 but for some reason, that game yells, “stay away.” Also debated about NE -7.5 in Pitt without Big Ben.  Also felt that could be problematic.  So, here’s the final pick:  Atlanta got FUCKED in Seattle with a non-call for pass interference.  They’re coming home and playing SD who has had 10 days to prepare.  SD has been playing teams tight, they’re sneaky good ATS.  A lot of expert picks have SD covering again.  But this is the week that comes to a halt.  Atlanta has been flying high and to have their wings clipped in such a fashion last week (I had Sea -6.5, didn’t cover), they’ll be pissed and will air it out at home.  SD can keep it close but not closer than a TD against the Falcons

I’m taking Atl -6

 

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Fantasy football draft #3 recap

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Last one folks, hope you’ve enjoyed my analyses on my picks and you’ve taken a nugget or 3 for your own drafts.  My final draft occurred on 8/25

Team name: I say NAAAWWWNE, ok?  Back afta dis….

So if you’re not into NY sports talk radio, you won’t know that’s a Mike Francesa reference.  Or you make think that’s a Sour Shoes reference in which it can be but know that he’s goofing on Fatcesa.  TURN MY MIC AWN!

And in this draft, I had pick #1.  I fucking hate pick number 1 unless it’s a year where you have a NO-BRAINER #1 pick.  I’m talking Ladanian  Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, or Jerry Rice, or Barry Sanders in their prime. Because there are multiple ways to fuck this pick up and you will make yourself sick trying NOT to screw it up.  And you are waiting a LONG time in between picks so you are forced to sometimes to take a player that you wanted to wait on just a little while later but know that there’s no way they’re coming back.  Or there may be a run on RBs or WRs and you feel the pressure to plug a spot.

1st Pick: I doubled down on Antonio Brown again because he’s the closest thing to one of those “no doubt” number ones.

2nd pick: LeSean McCoy: He owes me a season after his last mess with the Eagles.  And as I mentioned above, there was a run on RBs so I felt I had to grab one now or get stuck with a Jeremy Langford/Frank Gore as a number 1 RB.  He should bounce back and no more Karlos Williams to steal carries.  A healthy Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will make this a pretty nice offense.

3rd pick: Keenan Allen: I could’ve tripled down on Amari Cooper but I’m leery of going in all in with a player in all 3 leagues.  That guy gets injured and ka-plooey!  Even though he’s only my #2 WR, I still didn’t want to gamble.  Besides, Allen and Cooper are 6 and 1/2 dozen.  Allen was CRUSHING it until he got a shot to the kidneys.  He’ll be back with similar or even better numbers.

4th pick: Jarvis Landry: Couldn’t believe my eyes when this beaut fell into my lap.  And there were some questionable picks this round: CJ Anderson (who never lives up to expectations) Eric Decker (too early for him) and Matt Forte (also a little early for an injury risk compounded with a crowded backfield).  This makes it yet again, a SICK WR trio for my teams.  He and OBJ have a bet to see who gets more yds and tds so that will definitely play into my favor…

5th pick: Jordan Reed: Also couldn’t believe my eyes that this guy was available.  Experts had him going late 2nd-early 3rd.  At the beginning of the 5th, I got INSANE value for him.

6th pick: Chris Ivory: You know why he’s on Jax?  Because TJ Yeldon sucked.  You know who’s already starting preseason games? Chris Ivory.  And it’s not going to be 21-0 at the end of the first for Jax anymore, they’ve shored up their defense.  So that means more running and not as much passing for the Pan Handle faithful…

7th pick: Ameer Abdullah: He must get harassed by TSA quite often with a name like that…Rough rookie year, fumbled all over the joint and was left behind.  He’s starting this year again and let’s see if he holds onto the ball.  Experts say 7th round was the right time so I pulled the trigger. Besides, he’s my #3 RB or flex so I’m not married to him by any stretch.

8th pick: Tom Brady: Yet again, the 8th round I get him and yet again, I get value for him.  It’s going to pain me to root for a Patriot but remember: Cash moves everything around me, CREAM! Get the money, dolla dolla bill, y’all.  I was looking to get Sterling Shepard this round but I got snaked 3 picks in front of me by a buddy who is a Giants fan.

9th pick: Torrey Smith: Yes, Colin Kapernick is his QB but shit, he’s the #1 WR on this team.  And he’s my 4th WR, not married to him by any stretch.  And I think Kapernick can’t sink any lower so it’s going to translate nicely for Smith.

10th pick: Devin Funchess: I think I reached just a little bit for him but my 2 picks I had queued up were snaked by the 2 guys drafting in front of me.  I wanted Tajae Sharpe and/or Devontate Booker but like Grandmaster Flash said, “These…are…the breaks!”  I think Funchess can be a nice #2 on that team but not married to this guy either.

11th pick: Bilal Powell: Matt Forte must have Obamacare as his insurance cause he can’t stay healthy.  Bilal Powell is the next man up so….

12th pick: Joe Flacco: I wanted Tyler Boyd but he got snaked 2 picks before me.  And Mariota went 4 before me, another guy in my queue.  My backup QB and I know, he’s inconsistent as they come.  Here are his first 4 games while Brady sits out for me: Home against Buffalo (decent D) @Cleveland (not scaring me one bit) @Jax (They’re better but let me know when they get there) Home against Oak (That D hasn’t been good in 15 years) And during Brady’s bye week, they face the Steelers.  That game is either going to be 9-3 or they’re lighting up the scoreboard.  One week, he’ll throw for 350 and 4 tds.  The following week, he’ll throw for 125 yds and 4 picks.  Just need him for a short time, not the whole year…

13th pick: DeAndre Washington: Does Latavius Murray scare anyone?  (looking around) Nope, didn’t think so.  So I’ll grab the guy that LM’s owner SHOULD’VE grabbed sooner

14th pick: Victor Cruuuuuuuuz.  I had to have at least one Giant and had no problem taking a flier on my guy who salsa’ed his way into everyone’s heart. If he’s healthy and I know, that’s a big IF but he’s practiced all week, that offense will be fucking solid with OBJ, Shepard, and CRUUUUUZ.

15th pick: Mason Crosby:  Fucked up and clicked the wrong guy in this spot.  Broke my own rule!  That cost me Will Fuller…

16th pick: Javorius Allan: Guess who had Justin Forsett last year?  Guess who won’t get fooled again?  NOT THAT I’M BITTER HAVING WASTED A 3RD RD PICK ON HIM.  Well, I’ve learned my lesson.

17th pick: Rams D.  They’re ball hawks despite losing Jenkins to my Giants.  And if they suck, who cares?  It’s a defense and they’re a dime a dozen.  No one with brains wastes a pick above 2nd to last unless it’s the 85 bears, 00 Ravens, or the ’14 Seahawks.

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