Week 8 NFL picks

5-2 last week (Jax, St Lou, Saints, GB under and Titans under but lost Wash and Cincy), just what the doctor ordered.  And you know what you should order?  Your tickets to see the LIVE Comics Watching Comics Show on 11/18 at Gotham Comedy Club, 5pm.  The show is being taped for Amazon Video so come out and see the up and comers as well as current comers (insert TT Boy or Ron Jeremy joke here, you hacks).  So go to http://www.gothamcomedyclub.com and get them now.  No bullshit, tickets are moving at a nice clip and the room is small so act now.

What a well played, defensive game on Thursday!  Said not by me; because I fell into the Matt Moore hype machine and got torn apart like a flat earth supporter.  So 0-1 to start and hopefully this week ends with more bang than those JFK files that were released.  Seriously, if I wanted something without an ending, I’d rewatch that lazy Sopranos finale. You call that an ending?  I call it a “lazy way out” in an attempt of being avant garde. 

Usually, I love to back up my handicaps with facts but my leadoff pick is strictly a gut one  as well as based on trends.  Was anyone impressed with the Pats win last week?  I wasn’t.  They weren’t great against the Jets either.  I think this is the year that if the Pats have to go to KC or somewhere else with a tough crowd, they could fall in the AFC championship.  In come the LA Chargers, who finally got their first “home” win against a dogshit Denver offense.  Phillip Rivers who can backdoor a cover like the best of them (seriously, how is there not a gay bar named Backdoor Cover?  Come on Mets fans, someone can make a lot of money with that!) is getting 7.5 against the worst ranked Pats defense.  Yes, I know NE is typically tough at home and yes, their D has been better of late.  Yes, I know Rivers can wave his magic wand and make a pick 6 appear on the board with less than 2 minutes week.  Yes, I know that this is a west coast team playing on the east coast at 1pm.  But any gambler knows you’re playing the number, not the team. 7.5 points is that special number.  The Chargers D is pretty good and I just see them hanging tough tomorrow.  The best stat I can give you is that the Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS on the road.  Jump on it now before it drops!

Take the Chargers +7.5

Deshone Kizer is the Browns QB…this week.  I’d rather have Kaiser Wilheim as my QB, at least he wasn’t out partying till 2 am last friday night in Cleveland.  And now they fly to England  to face the Nikes who just rolled the Ravens.  Vikings are most likely getting back Stephon Diggs and that’s just going to make things more nightmarish for Cleveland. Do you see Cleveland scoring more than 10 points?  Neither do I.  They hit 20 points ONE time all year, as I pointed out last week.  By the way, this morning at 5:30 am, someone pulled the hotel alarm.  I don’t know what they had for breakfast, which really would make this a, “who gives a shit” story. But it’s always fun when the team you want to bet against gets woken up early in their hotel.  Cleveland has the #8 defense (and #3 worst looking women, next to Pittsburgh and Philly) so it’s going to be tougher to score against them too.  Oh yeah, one more fun fact.  Minn is 8-0 the week before their bye.  This game wreaks of 20-7 so you can pretty much figure out where I’m going with this.

Take the Vikings -9.5 and the under 37.5

You know what I forgot to do, besides write better jokes in this article?  I forgot to take Seattle and the under last week against my Giants.  Those are absolute locks, Giants NEVER beat them and sure as shit can’t put points on the board.  But I’m not missing a chance this week and I’m taking Seattle this week.  Why?  Well, let’s do a social commentary first.  The Texans owner said that he didn’t “want the inmates running the asylum” and that cause quite the kerfuffle in Houston.  But if Bob McNair makes another comment like that, he may end up like Steve McNair.  KA-Boom, pun intended.  DeAndre Hopkins walked out of practice and it took the entire coaching staff to persuade the entire team not to follow suit.  You think they’re going to get fired up before getting on a plane to Seattle?  Seattle at home is pretty damn good, 5-2 ATS recently.  I see Watson having a harder time in a hostile environment.  Seattle under hit in their last 4/6 and Houston under hit 4/6 on the road.  But I think Hou COULD put up points but not enough to cover.  You’re only laying 6.5 and Houston is missing Watt and Cushing on D.  And like I said, a team pissed at their owner.

Take the Seahawks -6.5

The Colts give up an avg of 30 points a game.  That’s pretty goddamn awful, like Anchorman 2 awful.  The Bengals are home after getting skewered by the Steelers last weekend. The Colts have went 4/5 over, 10/11 over on the road, and 4/5 over in Cincy.  42 is a low number and I can EASILY see the Bengals dropping 27 points on Indy.  All you need from Brisett and company (sounds like a furniture store) are 2 TDs.

Take the Bengals over 42

Pittsburgh just destroyed the Bengals.  Martavius Bryant got demoted to the practice squad.  Detroit is off a bye and apparently shall have Golden Tate back.  Detroit isn’t great in primetime but here’s the stat that grabbed me: Pitt is 0-5-1 the week before their bye.  Pitt has improved their road ATS but I think they fall asleep at the wheel.  This game may end up in a push but let’s find out:

Take Detroit +3

And now, the lock of the week.  The Bears just shocked the pants off of the Panthers at home, 17-3.  Guess what?  14 of those points were pick 6s.  Trubisky threw SEVEN passes last week.  As I said last week, the Saints defense is better (good enough that the under hit) and they’re in New Orleans this week.  The Saints are back to their old ways of lighting it up at home and there’s just no chance that the Bears can keep up.  The Saints are 4-1 ATS and 4-0-1 ATS against the Bears.  I know it’s a high number but can you see a rookie QB matching Brees?  Nope.  

Take the Saints -9.5

I also kind of like this week: Carolina 5-1 ATS, 6-2 vs TB, 5-1 in TB.  TB 4-9 home ATS and 0-4-1 ATS.  Carolina is getting Luke Keuchly back as well.  I also like Sea under 45.5.  Seattle has gone under 4/6 and Hou on the road is also 4/6.  I think the Chiefs rebound at home after 2 bad losses and cover the 7 against the Broncos.  Lastly, I think the Bills can cover 2.5 against the Raiders at 1pm, in Buffalo.

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Week 5 picks ATS

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Finally, a winning week last week.  This guy went 5-2 and took the Giants under to close out a successful week.  I did take the under of thursday night’s Niners game.  Fucking 7-7 at the half and then those 2 teams decided to have an offensive orgy, handing me a loss.  Oh well, let’s get to the picks this week.

As my friend Paul says, “I’m taking the Vikings until someone scores more than 14 points against them.”  And I just don’t see any fault in his logic.  I wanted to bet the Vikes on monday night but that’s just bad form betting against your own team.  Would’ve been right, that’s for sure.  Vikes are at Houston and I don’t see Brock Osweiler deciding to stop throwing INTs.  The line is -6.5 so if you can sneak in before the line goes to -7, I advise you do so.  Sam Bradford is playing fantastically and is due for a stinker but not against a JJ Watt-less defense.

I’m taking the Vikings -6.5

You’re going to see a theme now so let’s see if you dum-dums can figure it out:

Tennessee is in Miami after Hurricane Matthew ravaged that coastline.  The temperature is a balmy 86 degrees so that game is going on unaffected.  The weather is the only thing that town has going for them.  Miami is garbage, they barely beat the Browns for their only win of the year.  Tannehill is so awful that Brian Griese is shaking his head in disgust.  Tennessee is decent and they’re getting 3.  I’m applying Paul’s logic here: until Miami beats somebody besides the Browns, I’m going against them.

I’m taking the Titans +3

The aforementioned NY football Giants have played uninspiring football the last 2 weeks.  Eli’s house of horrors has always been Minnesota and they flat out gave away the game to Washington.  I’m a stats guy and the Giants OWN Green Bay.  Home, away, neutral site, or hell, even in Ecuador.  Packers haven’t been that good either.  My lock of the week was GB -6.5 2 weeks ago and Detroit roared back in garbage time to cut the lead to 7…in Lambeau. GB is off an early bye but Sam Shields is out.  This should be OBJ’s coming out party unless he turns into a weeping mess if someone gets into his head.  You may want to take the Giants on the money line and really capitalize but the line is -7.  Giants needs to get off their ass and dial up the pass rush, you hear me Spagnuolo?  We bought all of these guys in the off season, let’s utilize them for what they do best.

I’m taking the Giants +7

Baltimore hasn’t beaten anyone by more than 3 points all year.  The Skins can put up points and the Bal D isn’t scaring anyone.  The line is Bal -3.5 and the Skins have looked good since coming back against my Giants.  Rivalry game and I think the Skins play them tight and may possibly win.

I’m taking the Skins +3.5

The Colts suck.  The Colts sucked against Jacksonville in London last week.  Hope you listened to me and took the over!  The Colts are coming back home and passed on an early bye.  The Colts defense sucks; they’ve given up 30+ points in each of their losses.  The Bears aren’t an offensive juggernaut either but have been better with Hoyer under center.  Jordan Howard had a nice game last week and no reason he can’t run against a garbage front 7 of the Colts.  I think the Bears play this tight and Indy coming straight home after London without a bye should not bode well for the Colts.

I’m taking the Bears +4.5

I’ll see Hillary Clinton’s penis before I see the Chargers and Raiders play solid defense.  SD without their top corner and gosh, does it matter?  This is going to be a shootout and that’s that.

I’m taking SD over 51