NFL Week 3 ATS picks 9/27/20

Proper Vegas attire in 2020

No article last week as I was in Vegas so that’s why you should be following me on social media and you would’ve seen me go 3-1 last week. I had Detroit over, KC/Pitt teaser, AZ/Buffalo teaser, and the Jets under. The goddamn Jets broke us when Darnold rolls out of a sack and throws a TD with less than a minute left in the game. 3-1 last week, 3-2 week 1 which puts me at a robust 6-3 for the year, 66% ATS.

I apologize for the lack of numbers with these handicaps as I lost all my screenshots from oddshark when I had to fix my work iPad. Odds shark is censored in Jersey because they advertise gambling sites not based in Jersey. You pinko commie bastards. So I’m going on memory why I took these games without my usual stats. I know I’ll sound like my buddy Jeff Paul who makes his weekly pick on some horseshit logic but I promise, this won’t happen again.

The Lions stink. Blowing 2 first half leads turned into 2 losses and I have these cunts as an over for the year. Now they’re in AZ who is hot as a pistol. But I think Patricia knows his ass is on the line. And as I said, Detroit has come out firing in both first halves of their games. So I think Detroit grabs an early lead or at WORST, is hanging tough at the end of the half. And Stafford has Golliday back this week. So why not take…

Detroit +3.5 FIRST HALF. That extra hook helps but I truly think Detroit is up at halftime.

San Francisco 49ers defensive line has TWO STARTERS OUT. Cluster injuries on the line plus no Sherman and their starting CB. Oh yeah, Garoppolo, Kittle, and Mostert are also OUT. They’re throwing more shit out there on defense than the sidewalks of San Fran. I know my Giants stink this year but goddamnit, now is the time for a win. They’re home and almost beat the Bears last week if it weren’t for a horseshit offensive PI call. Yes, I know Barkley and Sheppard are out. If the Giants can’t beat the Niners when they’re THAT beat up, there’s a problem. But remember, this is the Giants and as Pesci said in Goodfellas, they can fuck up a cup of coffee.

So let’s tease them up to +9.5 and to find someone else to tease…

Dallas is in Seattle and as good as Seattle looks on offense, they look putrid on defense. They’re among the worst in pass rush and pass defense. Dallas and Seattle off emotional wins so that cancels out. No 12th man to screw with Dak getting the yips. I’m not betting against Russ but I’m betting on Dallas NOT getting blown out. They’ll lose but not by double digits and again, that Seattle pass D is more atrocious the stench that came from the CHAZ Zone in Seattle.

Dallas +11 is the second leg of the teaser.

Bellichick off the bye; blah, blah, blah is something like 68% ATS. Playing the Raiders at home, 1pm, after playing Monday night. Jacobs banged up a bit and Ruggs is out. I know that the center for the Pats is out which hurts but I think the Pats do enough to win. Yes, the line is -6.5 but not for me because I…

Teased the Pats down to -.5. Why leave the backdoor open?

Who to tease with now? Why not go with Backdoor Burrow in Philly? I think Cincy can cover that but I wouldn’t be surprised that Philly puts it together and blows them out. But what I do see happening today are points. Burrow can easily air it out against a shitty Philly secondary and if Carson Wentz stops throwing the ball to the other team, they can score as well. I know Cincy has the WORST ranked run defense and Philly will be inclined to expose them there.

But when I can take the over down to 41.5, I’ll do that easily thinking both teams can put up 21 apiece.

Rams smoked Philly last week (well done. Nothing sending those assholes down the drain and calling for Wentz’s head) and flew home. Why fly back? Stay east! Well, now they have to come back and play a white hot Buffalo. Here’s a stat: Buffalo has outscored their opponents in the first halves of their games something like 52-17. Again, lost my screenshots. They’re playing well at home and the Rams are without Akers, their RB. You’re laying less than a FG, the line is now 1.5. I got it at -2.5 last night so sharp money must have poured in on the Rams this morning. Not as confident on this pick now but we’ll see.

Buffalo -2.5

Last pick of the week: I’m FLOORED that Green Bay and KC are getting 3 or more on the road in empty stadiums. Those are some sexy numbers but here’s what sexier, teaser time again. Show me a world that GB (admittedly, I was wrong about Rodgers stinking this year, he’s top 5) and KC lose, let alone by more than a TD.

Teasing GB to +9 and KC +9.5